AAON (AAON)
Market Price (7/21/2026): $105.25 | Market Cap: $8.6 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Building Products
AAON (AAON)
Market Price (7/21/2026): $105.25Market Cap: $8.6 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Building Products
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electrification of Everything, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Heat Pump Technology, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -20%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -5.4% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 51x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 197x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 73x Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -10% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.7% Key risksAAON key risks include [1] profitability pressures from regulatory refrigerant transitions and [2] margin pressure combined with accounting scrutiny within its BASX segment. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electrification of Everything, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Heat Pump Technology, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -20%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -5.4% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 51x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 197x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 73x |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -10% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.7% |
| Key risksAAON key risks include [1] profitability pressures from regulatory refrigerant transitions and [2] margin pressure combined with accounting scrutiny within its BASX segment. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Updated on 7/20/2026
AAON (AAON) stock has gained about 30% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Exceptional Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Beat and Robust Revenue Growth.
AAON reported its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings on May 6, 2026, posting diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.48, significantly exceeding analysts' expectations of $0.30 by 60%. Net sales for the quarter increased 54.3% year-over-year to a record $496.9 million, surpassing the consensus estimate of $381.08 million. The company also raised its full-year 2026 guidance, forecasting revenue growth of 40-45% and gross margins of approximately 27-28%.
2. Record Backlog Driven by Strong Data Center Demand.
AAON achieved a record total backlog of $2.1 billion in fiscal Q1 2026, representing a 107.4% increase. This surge was primarily fueled by robust demand from the data center market, with BASX-branded liquid cooling sales growing 72.4% to $228.6 million. This indicates substantial future revenue potential and a strong market position in critical infrastructure.
Show more
AAON (AAON) stock has gained about 30% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Exceptional Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Beat and Robust Revenue Growth.
AAON reported its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings on May 6, 2026, posting diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.48, significantly exceeding analysts' expectations of $0.30 by 60%. Net sales for the quarter increased 54.3% year-over-year to a record $496.9 million, surpassing the consensus estimate of $381.08 million. The company also raised its full-year 2026 guidance, forecasting revenue growth of 40-45% and gross margins of approximately 27-28%.
2. Record Backlog Driven by Strong Data Center Demand.
AAON achieved a record total backlog of $2.1 billion in fiscal Q1 2026, representing a 107.4% increase. This surge was primarily fueled by robust demand from the data center market, with BASX-branded liquid cooling sales growing 72.4% to $228.6 million. This indicates substantial future revenue potential and a strong market position in critical infrastructure.
Show more
Updated on 7/20/2026
AAON (AAON) stock has gained about 30% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Exceptional Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Beat and Robust Revenue Growth.
AAON reported its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings on May 6, 2026, posting diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.48, significantly exceeding analysts' expectations of $0.30 by 60%. Net sales for the quarter increased 54.3% year-over-year to a record $496.9 million, surpassing the consensus estimate of $381.08 million. The company also raised its full-year 2026 guidance, forecasting revenue growth of 40-45% and gross margins of approximately 27-28%.
2. Record Backlog Driven by Strong Data Center Demand.
AAON achieved a record total backlog of $2.1 billion in fiscal Q1 2026, representing a 107.4% increase. This surge was primarily fueled by robust demand from the data center market, with BASX-branded liquid cooling sales growing 72.4% to $228.6 million. This indicates substantial future revenue potential and a strong market position in critical infrastructure.
3. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Upgraded Outlook.
Following the strong fiscal Q1 2026 results, Oppenheimer reaffirmed an "outperform" rating on AAON on May 8, 2026. While some downgrades to "hold" occurred later in July, the overall consensus analyst rating for AAON during the period remained "Moderate Buy" to "Strong Buy," with target prices ranging from $112.00 to $150.00, suggesting continued upside potential for the stock.
Show less
AAON (AAON) stock has gained about 30% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Exceptional Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Beat and Robust Revenue Growth.
AAON reported its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings on May 6, 2026, posting diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.48, significantly exceeding analysts' expectations of $0.30 by 60%. Net sales for the quarter increased 54.3% year-over-year to a record $496.9 million, surpassing the consensus estimate of $381.08 million. The company also raised its full-year 2026 guidance, forecasting revenue growth of 40-45% and gross margins of approximately 27-28%.
2. Record Backlog Driven by Strong Data Center Demand.
AAON achieved a record total backlog of $2.1 billion in fiscal Q1 2026, representing a 107.4% increase. This surge was primarily fueled by robust demand from the data center market, with BASX-branded liquid cooling sales growing 72.4% to $228.6 million. This indicates substantial future revenue potential and a strong market position in critical infrastructure.
3. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Upgraded Outlook.
Following the strong fiscal Q1 2026 results, Oppenheimer reaffirmed an "outperform" rating on AAON on May 8, 2026. While some downgrades to "hold" occurred later in July, the overall consensus analyst rating for AAON during the period remained "Moderate Buy" to "Strong Buy," with target prices ranging from $112.00 to $150.00, suggesting continued upside potential for the stock.
Show less
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 27.8% change in AAON stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 16.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 82.69 | 105.68 | 27.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,442 | 1,617 | 12.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.5% | 7.3% | -2.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 62.8 | 73.1 | 16.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 82 | 82 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 27.8% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AAON | 27.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.1% | 37.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 10.5% | 32.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 38.9% change in AAON stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 22.9% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 76.10 | 105.68 | 38.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,316 | 1,617 | 22.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.6% | 7.3% | -4.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 61.9 | 73.1 | 18.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 82 | 82 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 38.9% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AAON | 38.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 10.0% | 40.4% |
| Sector (XLI) | 15.5% | 45.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 43.9% change in AAON stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 94.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 73.44 | 105.68 | 43.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,261 | 1,617 | 28.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.6% | 7.3% | -42.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 37.7 | 73.1 | 94.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 81 | 82 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 43.9% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AAON | 43.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 22.1% | 41.6% |
| Sector (XLI) | 22.4% | 48.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 69.3% change in AAON stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 73.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 62.42 | 105.68 | 69.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 972 | 1,617 | 66.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.3% | 7.3% | -40.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 42.2 | 73.1 | 73.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 80 | 82 | -1.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 69.3% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AAON | 69.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.8% | 44.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | 73.4% | 51.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AAON Return | 20% | -5% | 48% | 60% | -35% | 37% | 140% |
| Peers Return | 43% | -26% | 85% | 57% | 12% | 31% | 358% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 98% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AAON Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 50% | 57% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 78% | 37% | 60% | 72% | 48% | 54% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AAON Max Drawdown | -26% | -40% | -25% | -24% | -47% | -30% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -17% | -46% | -22% | -18% | -35% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CARR, TT, JCI, LII, VRT. See AAON Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/21/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AAON | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -35.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.1% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 394 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.5% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 55 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -38.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.4% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 189 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -27.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 85 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -11.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.6% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 21 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -16.9% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.3% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 36 days | 62 days |
In The Past
AAON's stock fell -35.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 56.1% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | AAON | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -35.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.1% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 394 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.5% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 55 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -38.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.4% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 189 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -27.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 85 days | 140 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -36.4% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.2% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 502 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -38.3% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.2% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 42 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -43.3% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.4% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1284 days | 47 days |
In The Past
AAON's stock fell -35.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 56.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About AAON (AAON)
AAON, Inc. is a leading designer, manufacturer, and seller of advanced air conditioning and heating equipment primarily for commercial and industrial applications across the United States and Canada. The company specializes in providing a comprehensive suite of HVAC solutions, focusing on energy efficiency and technological innovation to meet diverse building climate control needs.
Its extensive product portfolio includes a wide array of specialized units such as rooftop units, chillers, air handling units, and geothermal/water-source heat pumps. AAON also offers highly specialized solutions like data center cooling systems through its BasX segment, cleanroom systems, and packaged outdoor mechanical rooms, alongside essential components like coils and controls.
AAON's products serve a broad spectrum of commercial industries, including retail, manufacturing, educational institutions, hospitality (lodging), supermarkets, and critical infrastructure like data centers and medical/pharmaceutical facilities. The company distributes its equipment through an established network of independent manufacturer representatives and its internal sales force, catering to the specific environmental control requirements of these diverse sectors.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- AAON is like **the Trane or Carrier for commercial and industrial buildings.**
- AAON is like **the Trane or Carrier for critical environments like data centers and cleanrooms.**
- AAON is like **a custom-engineered Trane or Carrier.**
AI Analysis | Feedback
AAON (symbol: AAON) primarily manufactures a range of commercial and industrial heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment and related components:
- Rooftop Units: Integrated heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems designed for outdoor installation on building rooftops.
- Data Center Cooling Solutions: Specialized cooling systems optimized for maintaining precise temperature and humidity in data centers.
- Cleanroom Systems: HVAC systems engineered to control airborne particulate contamination in critical environments like cleanrooms.
- Chillers: Equipment that removes heat from a liquid via a refrigeration cycle, often used to cool water for air conditioning or process cooling.
- Packaged Outdoor Mechanical Rooms: Prefabricated, self-contained enclosures housing HVAC and other mechanical equipment for various applications.
- Air Handling Units (AHUs): Large units containing fans, coils, filters, and dampers used to condition and circulate air as part of an HVAC system.
- Makeup Air Units: Systems designed to condition and introduce fresh outdoor air into a building, replacing air exhausted by ventilation systems.
- Energy Recovery Units (ERUs): HVAC systems that recover energy from exhaust air to pre-condition incoming outdoor air, improving efficiency.
- Condensing Units: Outdoor sections of air conditioning or heat pump systems that house the compressor and condenser coil.
- Geothermal/Water-Source Heat Pumps: Systems that use the earth or a body of water as a heat source or heat sink to provide heating and cooling.
- Coils: Components within HVAC systems responsible for heat exchange, such as evaporator coils, condenser coils, and heating coils.
- Controls: Electronic or pneumatic systems used to regulate and manage the operation of HVAC equipment.
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Major Customers of AAON (AAON)
AAON, Inc. sells its air conditioning and heating equipment primarily to other companies and commercial industries in the United States and Canada. The provided company description does not list specific major customer company names.
However, it identifies the following categories of industries and sectors as its customer base:
- Retail
- Manufacturing
- Educational institutions
- Lodging facilities
- Supermarkets
- Data centers
- Medical and pharmaceutical facilities
- Other commercial industries
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Matt Tobolski, Chief Executive Officer
Matt Tobolski became CEO of AAON in May 2025. He previously served as President and Chief Operating Officer of AAON since January 2024. Prior to these roles at AAON, he co-founded BASX Solutions in 2013, which AAON acquired in December 2021. Before co-founding BASX, Matt was the President and CEO of Tobolski Watkins Engineering, a structural and earthquake engineering firm, from 2008 to 2017. He then served as an Executive Advisor at Structural Integrity Associates from 2017 to 2020, following the acquisition of Tobolski Watkins Engineering.Rebecca Thompson, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer
Rebecca Thompson has served as AAON's Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer since 2021. She is a licensed certified public accountant and a member of the Choctaw Tribe. Prior to her CFO role, she held the position of Chief Accounting Officer at AAON from 2012 to 2021. Before joining AAON, she spent 11 years as a Senior Manager in the assurance division at Grant Thornton, LLP, and began her career at Arthur Andersen.Norman H. Asbjornson, Director and Founder
Norman H. Asbjornson founded AAON in 1988, taking the company public three years later. He served as CEO until May 2020, then transitioned to Executive Chairman until May 2022, and currently remains a non-independent director. He established AAON through a management buyout of the John Zink Company's heating and air conditioning division, which he previously led.Gary D. Fields, Director and Special Advisor
Gary D. Fields served as AAON's Chief Executive Officer from May 2020 until May 2025, and as President from November 2016 until January 2024. He was elected as a director in 2015 and now serves as a special advisor. He has over 35 years of experience in the HVAC industry, including a tenure as an HVAC equipment sales representative and part of the ownership group at Texas AirSystems. He was also the owner and President of GKR Partners LTD, an HVAC business development consulting firm that provided services to AAON and its sales representatives.Casey Kidwell, Chief Administrative Officer
Casey Kidwell oversees human resources, security, safety, and IT functions at AAON, ensuring the company's culture is upheld and team members are equipped for success. He previously served as AAON's Director of Administration since 2021. Prior to joining AAON, he spent nearly ten years in various HR and IT roles at WPX Energy.AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to AAON's business are:
- Refrigerant Transition and Regulatory Changes: AAON faces significant challenges and potential cost increases due to regulatory changes mandating a transition to new refrigerants. This "unprecedented refrigerant transition" has already caused operational disruptions, impacted sales, and required the company to update building codes and re-certify components for its equipment.
- Operational Challenges from ERP Implementation and Supply Chain Disruptions: The implementation of a new Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system has proven to be a "painful" and disruptive process for AAON. This has led to delays in lead times, significantly impacted manufacturing and supply operations, and contributed to a sharp decline in gross margins and earnings per share. Additionally, the company is exposed to broader supply chain disruptions.
- Economic Conditions and Demand in Non-residential Construction: As a manufacturer of air conditioning and heating equipment for commercial industries, AAON's business is sensitive to macroeconomic conditions. Economic downturns can lead to reduced demand in the commercial and industrial new construction markets, thereby impacting the company's sales and profitability. The company has already experienced "weaker macroeconomic conditions in the nonresidential construction sector" which created obstacles for its business.
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The addressable markets for AAON's main products and services in North America are sized as follows:
- Commercial HVAC Equipment Market: The North America HVAC equipment market, of which commercial accounts commanded 59.75% of the revenue in 2025, is estimated to be approximately USD 18.6 billion in 2025. The overall North America HVAC equipment market is projected to grow from USD 31.12 billion in 2025 to USD 48.66 billion by 2031, at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 7.93% during 2026-2031. The U.S. alone is expected to have a commercial HVAC system market revenue share of USD 17.38 billion in 2025.
- Data Center Cooling Solutions Market: The North America data center cooling market is estimated to be around USD 7.20 billion to USD 8.27 billion in 2025. This market is projected to grow significantly, with estimates ranging from reaching USD 12.58 billion by 2030 (CAGR of 11.8%) to USD 23.73 billion by 2032 (CAGR of 24.13%) and US$ 45.06 billion by 2035 (CAGR of 18.8%).
- Cleanroom Systems Market: The North America cleanroom technology market was approximately USD 3.0 billion to USD 3.35 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 3.55 billion in 2025. The market is projected to grow at a CAGR of around 5.4% to 5.5% from 2025 to 2030, reaching approximately USD 4.17 billion by 2030.
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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for AAON (AAON)
Over the next 2-3 years, AAON is expected to drive future revenue growth through several key initiatives and market trends:
- Expanding Data Center Cooling Solutions: Strong and increasing demand from the data center market, particularly for BASX-branded air-side and liquid cooling solutions, is a significant growth driver. The BASX segment experienced a 141% increase in backlog to $1.3 billion in 2025, with a book-to-bill ratio of 2.4, indicating robust future revenue. AAON anticipates its data center business will grow to over $1 billion within a few years.
- Innovation in Energy-Efficient HVAC Systems: The company's focus on product innovation, particularly with energy-efficient solutions like the Alpha Class Extreme Series rooftop units equipped with cold climate heat pumps, is expected to fuel growth. These units are designed to operate effectively at temperatures as low as negative 20 degrees Fahrenheit, aligning with increasing demands for decarbonization and electrification in buildings. Alpha Class unit sales exceeded $100 million in 2024 and are projected to grow by multiples in the coming years.
- Increased Manufacturing Capacity and Operational Efficiencies: Strategic investments in expanding manufacturing capacity, including new facilities in Longview, Texas, and Memphis, Tennessee, are crucial for meeting high product demand. These expansions, coupled with ongoing ERP system upgrades, are anticipated to enhance production throughput and operational efficiencies, directly supporting revenue growth and margin improvement. AAON forecasts an 18%-20% increase in sales for 2026 due to these strategic investments and operational enhancements.
- Strong Backlog and National Accounts Strategy: A record backlog of $1.83 billion at the end of 2025 provides significant visibility into future revenue streams. Additionally, AAON's national accounts strategy is gaining traction, demonstrating the company's ability to capture market share and secure larger projects.
- Strategic Pricing and Favorable Product Mix: While less explicitly detailed, pricing is a contributor to sales growth, with expectations of mid-single-digit contributions to sales growth in previous years. The company also benefits from value-based pricing linked to lifecycle energy savings and a product mix that emphasizes configurable, factory-integrated options, which tend to increase average selling prices. Projected improvements in gross margins for 2026 also suggest continued pricing power and an optimizing product mix.
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Share Repurchases
- AAON announced a $100 million share repurchase program authorization in March 2026.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for 2025 were $204.9 million.
- Planned capital expenditures for 2026 are $190 million.
- The primary focus of these capital expenditures includes expanding manufacturing capacity, especially the Memphis facility for BASX data center equipment, and strategic investments in production expansion and ERP implementation to support future growth, operational optimization, and increased production throughput.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 223.48 |
| Mkt Cap | 71.2 |
| Rev LTM | 16,223 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,810 |
| FCF LTM | 1,526 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,450 |
| CFO LTM | 1,924 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,783 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.6% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 2.1% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 16.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 16.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 16.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 71.2 |
| P/S | 4.2 |
| P/Op Inc | 30.8 |
| P/EBIT | 30.8 |
| P/E | 39.2 |
| P/CFO | 37.6 |
| Total Yield | 3.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.9% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.6% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -4.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 4.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 21.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 19.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 91.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -1.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 12.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -0.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 23.4% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAON Oklahoma | 849 | 865 | 902 | 667 | 464 |
| AAON Coil Products | 341 | 182 | 151 | 138 | 67 |
| BASX | 316 | 199 | 160 | 118 | 4 |
| Eliminations | -65 | -45 | -45 | -34 | |
| Total | 1,442 | 1,201 | 1,169 | 889 | 535 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|
| AAON Oklahoma | 345 | 259 |
| BASX | 219 | 190 |
| Inventories, net | 187 | |
| Accounts receivable, net | 147 | |
| Contract assets, net | 135 | |
| AAON Coil Products | 123 | 83 |
| Prepaid expenses and other | 7 | |
| Restricted cash | 6 | |
| Income tax receivable | 4 | |
| Deferred tax assets | 1 | |
| Other long-term assets | 0 | |
| Cash and cash equivalents | 0 | |
| Total | 1,175 | 532 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $105.61 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 8.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/16/1992 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -28.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $127.75 | $100.68 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -17.3% | 4.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 86.2% | 63.0% |
| Downside Capture | 242.92 | 205.84 |
| Upside Capture | 223.17 | 203.01 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 36.1% | 41.4% |
AAON Betas & Captures as of 6/30/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.10 | 2.20 | 2.15 | 1.95 | 2.06 | 1.53 |
| Up Beta | 1.83 | 2.43 | 2.93 | 2.49 | 2.32 | 1.37 |
| Down Beta | 3.40 | 4.15 | 3.91 | 3.23 | 2.39 | 1.53 |
| Up Capture | 129% | 278% | 212% | 222% | 327% | 547% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 21 | 34 | 65 | 127 | 404 |
| Down Capture | 203% | 75% | 62% | 87% | 142% | 110% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 20 | 29 | 60 | 125 | 347 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AAON | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAON | 34.9% | 63.1% | 0.71 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 19.3% | 16.6% | 0.88 | 48.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 20.3% | 12.6% | 1.19 | 41.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.6% | 28.1% | 0.69 | 23.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 31.4% | 19.1% | 1.30 | -5.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 15.0% | 14.0% | 0.76 | 13.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -44.6% | 42.9% | -1.25 | 17.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AAON | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAON | 21.4% | 46.2% | 0.57 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.4% | 17.6% | 0.59 | 50.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.9% | 17.1% | 0.58 | 44.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.3% | 18.4% | 0.76 | 11.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.9% | 19.5% | 0.35 | 2.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.9% | 18.9% | 0.05 | 29.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 14.9% | 53.4% | 0.46 | 15.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AAON | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAON | 19.7% | 40.7% | 0.57 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.9% | 20.0% | 0.61 | 49.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 46.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.2% | 16.1% | 0.57 | 4.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.2% | 17.9% | 0.32 | 8.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.1% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 31.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.7% | 66.2% | 0.99 | 12.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/9/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | 31.5% | 37.7% | 35.0% |
| 3/2/2026 | 3.5% | -12.7% | -22.6% |
| 11/6/2025 | 7.0% | 9.2% | -11.1% |
| 8/11/2025 | -10.5% | -1.2% | -2.8% |
| 5/1/2025 | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% |
| 2/27/2025 | -22.9% | -19.7% | -21.3% |
| 11/7/2024 | 16.1% | 11.8% | 8.4% |
| 8/1/2024 | -1.3% | -1.0% | 9.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 14 | 13 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.4% |
| Median Negative | -3.3% | -7.0% | -6.6% |
| Max Positive | 31.5% | 37.7% | 35.0% |
| Max Negative | -22.9% | -19.7% | -22.6% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | 31.5% | 37.7% | 35.0% |
| 3/2/2026 | 3.5% | -12.7% | -22.6% |
| 11/6/2025 | 7.0% | 9.2% | -11.1% |
| 8/11/2025 | -10.5% | -1.2% | -2.8% |
| 5/1/2025 | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% |
| 2/27/2025 | -22.9% | -19.7% | -21.3% |
| 11/7/2024 | 16.1% | 11.8% | 8.4% |
| 8/1/2024 | -1.3% | -1.0% | 9.9% |
| 5/2/2024 | -13.7% | -14.5% | -18.6% |
| 2/28/2024 | -3.4% | -6.8% | 1.5% |
| 11/6/2023 | 2.0% | 2.3% | 11.0% |
| 8/3/2023 | -5.9% | -9.4% | -5.4% |
| 5/4/2023 | 7.2% | -0.5% | -5.3% |
| 2/27/2023 | 11.6% | 14.2% | 16.7% |
| 11/7/2022 | 14.0% | 18.7% | 19.6% |
| 8/8/2022 | -3.1% | 2.6% | -6.6% |
| 5/5/2022 | 8.7% | 10.6% | 18.0% |
| 2/28/2022 | -2.4% | -7.3% | -4.2% |
| 11/4/2021 | -0.1% | 3.7% | 8.3% |
| 8/5/2021 | 6.4% | 9.6% | 6.3% |
| 5/6/2021 | 3.5% | 3.8% | 1.0% |
| 2/25/2021 | -1.6% | -4.9% | -9.1% |
| 11/5/2020 | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.0% |
| 8/6/2020 | 2.9% | 3.9% | -0.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 14 | 13 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.4% |
| Median Negative | -3.3% | -7.0% | -6.6% |
| Max Positive | 31.5% | 37.7% | 35.0% |
| Max Negative | -22.9% | -19.7% | -22.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/02/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/11/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/02/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/11/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/28/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/06/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/25/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/07/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/27/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/31/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/01/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/12/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/7/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 40.0% | 42.5% | 45.0% | 123.7% | 23.5% | Raised | Guidance: 19.0% for 2026 |
| 2026 Gross Profit Margin | 27.0% | 27.5% | 28.0% | -2.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 30.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 SG&A as a % of sales | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.15 | -1.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 0.16 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Depreciation & Amortization | 95.00 Mil | 97.50 Mil | 100.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 97.50 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/2/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 18.0% | 19.0% | 20.0% | 4.0% | Higher New | Actual: 15.0% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Gross Profit Margin | 29.0% | 30.0% | 31.0% | 1.8% | Higher New | Actual: 28.25% for 2025 | |
| 2026 SG&A as a % of sales | 0.16 | -0.8% | Lower New | Actual: 0.17 for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Depreciation & Amortization | 95.00 Mil | 97.50 Mil | 100.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 190.00 Mil | 5.6% | Higher New | Actual: 180.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/6/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 YoY Sales Growth | 15.0% | 15.4% | 2.0% | Raised | Guidance: 13.0% for 2025 | ||
| 2025 Gross Profit Margin | 28.0% | 28.25% | 28.5% | -0.2% | Lowered | Guidance: 28.5% for 2025 | |
| 2025 Non-GAAP adjusted SG&A as a % of sales | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.17 | ||||
| 2025 Capital Expenditures | 180.00 Mil | ||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 6/5/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thompson, Rebecca | Chief Accounting Officer | 401(k) Plan | Sell | 6052026 | 143.42 | 4,230 | Form | ||
| 2 | Fields, Gary D | Direct | Sell | 6012026 | 140.20 | 19,000 | 2,663,800 | 2,138,330 | Form | |
| 3 | Wichman, Gordon Douglas | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 5272026 | 140.39 | 3,000 | 421,170 | 1,543,869 | Form |
| 4 | Fields, Gary D | Direct | Sell | 5272026 | 140.34 | 21,173 | 2,971,419 | 4,806,926 | Form | |
| 5 | Kidwell, Casey | Chief Administration Officer | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 138.30 | 3,153 | 436,071 | 1,861,979 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thompson, Rebecca | Chief Accounting Officer | 401(k) Plan | Sell | 6052026 | 143.42 | 4,230 | Form | ||
| 2 | Fields, Gary D | Direct | Sell | 6012026 | 140.20 | 19,000 | 2,663,800 | 2,138,330 | Form | |
| 3 | Wichman, Gordon Douglas | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 5272026 | 140.39 | 3,000 | 421,170 | 1,543,869 | Form |
| 4 | Fields, Gary D | Direct | Sell | 5272026 | 140.34 | 21,173 | 2,971,419 | 4,806,926 | Form | |
| 5 | Kidwell, Casey | Chief Administration Officer | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 138.30 | 3,153 | 436,071 | 1,861,979 | Form |
| 6 | Fields, Gary D | Direct | Sell | 5132026 | 134.07 | 31,271 | 4,192,398 | 4,592,051 | Form | |
| 7 | Thompson, Rebecca | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 5112026 | 136.59 | 9,672 | 1,321,098 | 3,780,948 | Form |
| 8 | Thompson, Rebecca | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 4282026 | 100.27 | 400 | 40,108 | 2,775,574 | Form |
| 9 | Thompson, Rebecca | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 4272026 | 100.21 | 21,914 | 2,196,002 | 2,773,913 | Form |
| 10 | Thompson, Rebecca | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 4242026 | 100.10 | 7,292 | 729,929 | 2,770,868 | Form |
| 11 | Thompson, Rebecca | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 4222026 | 100.11 | 2,287 | 228,952 | 2,771,145 | Form |
| 12 | Kidwell, Casey | Chief Administration Officer | Direct | Sell | 3162026 | 90.00 | 5,225 | 470,250 | 1,139,580 | Form |
| 13 | Wakefield, Stephen E | Executive Vice President | Direct | Buy | 12152025 | 80.85 | 1,000 | 80,850 | 1,029,220 | Form |
| 14 | Wakefield, Stephen E | Executive Vice President | 401(k) Plan | Buy | 12152025 | 77.59 | 4,141 | 321,300 | 1,180,299 | Form |
| 15 | Wakefield, Stephen E | Executive Vice President | Direct | Buy | 12152025 | 82.25 | 1,000 | 82,250 | 964,792 | Form |
| 16 | Fields, Gary D | Direct | Sell | 11132025 | 105.14 | 3,553 | 373,562 | 2,769,388 | Form | |
| 17 | Fields, Gary D | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 105.21 | 26,746 | 2,813,947 | 2,771,231 | Form | |
| 18 | Shaub, Matthew | Executive Vice President | Direct | Buy | 9152025 | 81.70 | 428 | 34,968 | 145,671 | Form |
| 19 | Thompson, Rebecca | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 9052025 | 81.09 | 9,350 | 758,198 | 1,978,287 | Form |
| 20 | Eason, Christopher Douglas | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 8272025 | 85.08 | 12,003 | 1,021,205 | 451,005 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Jul 21, 202613F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)
Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
AAON — Investor Video Playlist
Products & Services
Inside AAON Season 2 Episode 05: All About Heat Pumps
Products & Services
Surface Mount Technology Line | AAON - Commercial & Industrial HVAC
Products & Services
Inside AAON S2 EP02 | Where is the Commercial HVAC Industry Heading?
Products & Services
Air Handling H3 and V3 Series | AAON - Commercial & Industrial HVAC
Products & Services
Stacey at NAIC Breaks Down HVAC Unit Certification | AAON - Commercial & Industrial HVAC
Leadership
CEO Gary Fields Interviewed on The Claman Countdown
Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
| IndustryWeek |
| Manufacturing.net |
| Aviation Week |
| Building Products Resources |
| Building Design+Construction |
| Construction Dive |
| Architectural Record |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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