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AAON (AAON)

Market Price (4/15/2026): $92.62 | Market Cap: $7.6 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Building Products

AAON (AAON)

Market Price (4/15/2026): $92.62
Market Cap: $7.6 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Building Products

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Electrification of Everything, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Heat Pump Technology, Show more.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -30%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -22%

Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 52x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 14,160x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 70x

Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14%

Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.2%

Key risks
AAON key risks include [1] profitability pressures from regulatory refrigerant transitions and [2] margin pressure combined with accounting scrutiny within its BASX segment.

0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Electrification of Everything, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Heat Pump Technology, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -30%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -22%
3 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 52x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 14,160x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 70x
4 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14%
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.2%
6 Key risks
AAON key risks include [1] profitability pressures from regulatory refrigerant transitions and [2] margin pressure combined with accounting scrutiny within its BASX segment.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

AAON (AAON) stock has gained about 20% since 12/31/2025 because of the following key factors:

1. Strong Revenue Growth Driven by Data Center Demand.

AAON reported a significant increase in net sales for the fourth quarter of 2025, rising 42.5% year-over-year to $424.2 million, surpassing analyst consensus estimates. This growth was primarily fueled by a 138.8% surge in BASX-branded equipment sales, largely attributed to robust demand for data center applications.

2. Record Backlog and Positive 2026 Outlook.

The company concluded 2025 with a record year-end backlog of $1.83 billion, marking a substantial 110.9% increase from the previous year, which provides strong revenue visibility for 2026. AAON further bolstered investor confidence by introducing an optimistic 2026 outlook, projecting revenue growth of 18% to 20% and anticipated gross margins between 29% and 31%.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 21.6% change in AAON stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 13.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)123120254152026Change
Stock Price ($)76.1592.6221.6%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1,3161,4429.6%
Net Income Margin (%)7.6%7.5%-2.1%
P/E Multiple61.970.313.5%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)8282-0.1%
Cumulative Contribution21.6%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

12/31/2025 to 4/15/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AAON21.6% 
Market (SPY)-5.4%44.1%
Sector (XLI)10.4%76.3%

Fundamental Drivers

The -0.6% change in AAON stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/15/2026 was primarily driven by a -23.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)93020254152026Change
Stock Price ($)93.2292.62-0.6%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1,2591,44214.6%
Net Income Margin (%)9.7%7.5%-23.1%
P/E Multiple62.270.313.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)8182-0.3%
Cumulative Contribution-0.6%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

9/30/2025 to 4/15/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AAON-0.7% 
Market (SPY)-2.9%45.9%
Sector (XLI)11.4%66.7%

Fundamental Drivers

The 19.1% change in AAON stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 86.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)33120254152026Change
Stock Price ($)77.7792.6219.1%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1,2011,44220.1%
Net Income Margin (%)14.0%7.5%-46.9%
P/E Multiple37.670.386.8%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)8282-0.1%
Cumulative Contribution19.1%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2025 to 4/15/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AAON19.1% 
Market (SPY)16.3%48.1%
Sector (XLI)32.0%63.0%

Fundamental Drivers

The 45.6% change in AAON stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 62.3% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)33120234152026Change
Stock Price ($)63.6292.6245.6%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)8891,44262.3%
Net Income Margin (%)11.3%7.5%-33.9%
P/E Multiple50.570.339.2%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)8082-2.4%
Cumulative Contribution45.6%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2023 to 4/15/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AAON45.6% 
Market (SPY)63.3%46.6%
Sector (XLI)76.4%56.5%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
AAON Return20%-5%48%60%-35%23%117%
Peers Return43%-26%85%57%12%32%362%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%2%85%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AAON Win Rate58%42%67%75%50%75% 
Peers Win Rate78%37%60%72%48%70% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%50% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AAON Max Drawdown-10%-40%-6%-5%-39%0% 
Peers Max Drawdown-3%-46%-8%-6%-25%-4% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%-7% 

[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CARR, TT, JCI, LII, VRT. See AAON Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/15/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAAONS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-42.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven73.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven299 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-31.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven44.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven144 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-25.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven34.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven27 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-62.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven167.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven983 days1,480 days

Compare to CARR, TT, JCI, LII, VRT

In The Past

AAON's stock fell -42.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/8/2021. A -42.4% loss requires a 73.6% gain to breakeven.

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About AAON (AAON)

AAON, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in engineering, manufacturing, marketing, and selling air conditioning and heating equipment in the United States and Canada. The company operates through three segments: AAON Oklahoma, AAON Coil Products, and BasX. It offers rooftop units, data center cooling solutions, cleanroom systems, chillers, packaged outdoor mechanical rooms, air handling units, makeup air units, energy recovery units, condensing units, geothermal/water-source heat pumps, coils, and controls. The company markets and sells its products to retail, manufacturing, educational, lodging, supermarket, data centers, medical and pharmaceutical, and other commercial industries. It sells its products through a network of independent manufacturer representative organizations and internal sales force. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is based in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • AAON is like **the Trane or Carrier for commercial and industrial buildings.**
  • AAON is like **the Trane or Carrier for critical environments like data centers and cleanrooms.**
  • AAON is like **a custom-engineered Trane or Carrier.**

AI Analysis | Feedback

AAON (symbol: AAON) primarily manufactures a range of commercial and industrial heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment and related components:

  • Rooftop Units: Integrated heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems designed for outdoor installation on building rooftops.
  • Data Center Cooling Solutions: Specialized cooling systems optimized for maintaining precise temperature and humidity in data centers.
  • Cleanroom Systems: HVAC systems engineered to control airborne particulate contamination in critical environments like cleanrooms.
  • Chillers: Equipment that removes heat from a liquid via a refrigeration cycle, often used to cool water for air conditioning or process cooling.
  • Packaged Outdoor Mechanical Rooms: Prefabricated, self-contained enclosures housing HVAC and other mechanical equipment for various applications.
  • Air Handling Units (AHUs): Large units containing fans, coils, filters, and dampers used to condition and circulate air as part of an HVAC system.
  • Makeup Air Units: Systems designed to condition and introduce fresh outdoor air into a building, replacing air exhausted by ventilation systems.
  • Energy Recovery Units (ERUs): HVAC systems that recover energy from exhaust air to pre-condition incoming outdoor air, improving efficiency.
  • Condensing Units: Outdoor sections of air conditioning or heat pump systems that house the compressor and condenser coil.
  • Geothermal/Water-Source Heat Pumps: Systems that use the earth or a body of water as a heat source or heat sink to provide heating and cooling.
  • Coils: Components within HVAC systems responsible for heat exchange, such as evaporator coils, condenser coils, and heating coils.
  • Controls: Electronic or pneumatic systems used to regulate and manage the operation of HVAC equipment.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Major Customers of AAON (AAON)

AAON, Inc. sells its air conditioning and heating equipment primarily to other companies and commercial industries in the United States and Canada. The provided company description does not list specific major customer company names.

However, it identifies the following categories of industries and sectors as its customer base:

  • Retail
  • Manufacturing
  • Educational institutions
  • Lodging facilities
  • Supermarkets
  • Data centers
  • Medical and pharmaceutical facilities
  • Other commercial industries

AI Analysis | Feedback

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AI Analysis | Feedback

Matt Tobolski, Chief Executive Officer

Matt Tobolski became CEO of AAON in May 2025. He previously served as President and Chief Operating Officer of AAON since January 2024. Prior to these roles at AAON, he co-founded BASX Solutions in 2013, which AAON acquired in December 2021. Before co-founding BASX, Matt was the President and CEO of Tobolski Watkins Engineering, a structural and earthquake engineering firm, from 2008 to 2017. He then served as an Executive Advisor at Structural Integrity Associates from 2017 to 2020, following the acquisition of Tobolski Watkins Engineering.

Rebecca Thompson, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

Rebecca Thompson has served as AAON's Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer since 2021. She is a licensed certified public accountant and a member of the Choctaw Tribe. Prior to her CFO role, she held the position of Chief Accounting Officer at AAON from 2012 to 2021. Before joining AAON, she spent 11 years as a Senior Manager in the assurance division at Grant Thornton, LLP, and began her career at Arthur Andersen.

Norman H. Asbjornson, Director and Founder

Norman H. Asbjornson founded AAON in 1988, taking the company public three years later. He served as CEO until May 2020, then transitioned to Executive Chairman until May 2022, and currently remains a non-independent director. He established AAON through a management buyout of the John Zink Company's heating and air conditioning division, which he previously led.

Gary D. Fields, Director and Special Advisor

Gary D. Fields served as AAON's Chief Executive Officer from May 2020 until May 2025, and as President from November 2016 until January 2024. He was elected as a director in 2015 and now serves as a special advisor. He has over 35 years of experience in the HVAC industry, including a tenure as an HVAC equipment sales representative and part of the ownership group at Texas AirSystems. He was also the owner and President of GKR Partners LTD, an HVAC business development consulting firm that provided services to AAON and its sales representatives.

Casey Kidwell, Chief Administrative Officer

Casey Kidwell oversees human resources, security, safety, and IT functions at AAON, ensuring the company's culture is upheld and team members are equipped for success. He previously served as AAON's Director of Administration since 2021. Prior to joining AAON, he spent nearly ten years in various HR and IT roles at WPX Energy.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The key risks to AAON's business are:

  1. Refrigerant Transition and Regulatory Changes: AAON faces significant challenges and potential cost increases due to regulatory changes mandating a transition to new refrigerants. This "unprecedented refrigerant transition" has already caused operational disruptions, impacted sales, and required the company to update building codes and re-certify components for its equipment.
  2. Operational Challenges from ERP Implementation and Supply Chain Disruptions: The implementation of a new Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system has proven to be a "painful" and disruptive process for AAON. This has led to delays in lead times, significantly impacted manufacturing and supply operations, and contributed to a sharp decline in gross margins and earnings per share. Additionally, the company is exposed to broader supply chain disruptions.
  3. Economic Conditions and Demand in Non-residential Construction: As a manufacturer of air conditioning and heating equipment for commercial industries, AAON's business is sensitive to macroeconomic conditions. Economic downturns can lead to reduced demand in the commercial and industrial new construction markets, thereby impacting the company's sales and profitability. The company has already experienced "weaker macroeconomic conditions in the nonresidential construction sector" which created obstacles for its business.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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AI Analysis | Feedback

The addressable markets for AAON's main products and services in North America are sized as follows:
  • Commercial HVAC Equipment Market: The North America HVAC equipment market, of which commercial accounts commanded 59.75% of the revenue in 2025, is estimated to be approximately USD 18.6 billion in 2025. The overall North America HVAC equipment market is projected to grow from USD 31.12 billion in 2025 to USD 48.66 billion by 2031, at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 7.93% during 2026-2031. The U.S. alone is expected to have a commercial HVAC system market revenue share of USD 17.38 billion in 2025.
  • Data Center Cooling Solutions Market: The North America data center cooling market is estimated to be around USD 7.20 billion to USD 8.27 billion in 2025. This market is projected to grow significantly, with estimates ranging from reaching USD 12.58 billion by 2030 (CAGR of 11.8%) to USD 23.73 billion by 2032 (CAGR of 24.13%) and US$ 45.06 billion by 2035 (CAGR of 18.8%).
  • Cleanroom Systems Market: The North America cleanroom technology market was approximately USD 3.0 billion to USD 3.35 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 3.55 billion in 2025. The market is projected to grow at a CAGR of around 5.4% to 5.5% from 2025 to 2030, reaching approximately USD 4.17 billion by 2030.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for AAON (AAON)

Over the next 2-3 years, AAON is expected to drive future revenue growth through several key initiatives and market trends:

  • Expanding Data Center Cooling Solutions: Strong and increasing demand from the data center market, particularly for BASX-branded air-side and liquid cooling solutions, is a significant growth driver. The BASX segment experienced a 141% increase in backlog to $1.3 billion in 2025, with a book-to-bill ratio of 2.4, indicating robust future revenue. AAON anticipates its data center business will grow to over $1 billion within a few years.
  • Innovation in Energy-Efficient HVAC Systems: The company's focus on product innovation, particularly with energy-efficient solutions like the Alpha Class Extreme Series rooftop units equipped with cold climate heat pumps, is expected to fuel growth. These units are designed to operate effectively at temperatures as low as negative 20 degrees Fahrenheit, aligning with increasing demands for decarbonization and electrification in buildings. Alpha Class unit sales exceeded $100 million in 2024 and are projected to grow by multiples in the coming years.
  • Increased Manufacturing Capacity and Operational Efficiencies: Strategic investments in expanding manufacturing capacity, including new facilities in Longview, Texas, and Memphis, Tennessee, are crucial for meeting high product demand. These expansions, coupled with ongoing ERP system upgrades, are anticipated to enhance production throughput and operational efficiencies, directly supporting revenue growth and margin improvement. AAON forecasts an 18%-20% increase in sales for 2026 due to these strategic investments and operational enhancements.
  • Strong Backlog and National Accounts Strategy: A record backlog of $1.83 billion at the end of 2025 provides significant visibility into future revenue streams. Additionally, AAON's national accounts strategy is gaining traction, demonstrating the company's ability to capture market share and secure larger projects.
  • Strategic Pricing and Favorable Product Mix: While less explicitly detailed, pricing is a contributor to sales growth, with expectations of mid-single-digit contributions to sales growth in previous years. The company also benefits from value-based pricing linked to lifecycle energy savings and a product mix that emphasizes configurable, factory-integrated options, which tend to increase average selling prices. Projected improvements in gross margins for 2026 also suggest continued pricing power and an optimizing product mix.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Share Repurchases

  • AAON announced a $100 million share repurchase program authorization in March 2026.

Capital Expenditures

  • Capital expenditures for 2025 were $204.9 million.
  • Planned capital expenditures for 2026 are $190 million.
  • The primary focus of these capital expenditures includes expanding manufacturing capacity, especially the Memphis facility for BASX data center equipment, and strategic investments in production expansion and ERP implementation to support future growth, operational optimization, and increased production throughput.

Better Bets vs. AAON (AAON)

Latest Trefis Analyses

TitleDate
0DASHBOARDS 
1AAON Stock (AAON) -9.0%: Q4 EPS Miss Overshadows Strong Revenue and Guidance03/04/2026
2AAON vs SPX Technologies: Which Stock Could Rally?01/01/2026
3AAON Earnings Notes12/20/2025
4With AAON Stock Sliding, Have You Assessed The Risk?10/17/2025
5AAON vs FTAI Aviation: Which Is A Better Investment?08/18/2025
6How Does AAON Stock Compare With Peers?08/13/2025
7Better Bet Than AAON Stock: Pay Less Than AAON To Get More From RCL, CCL 08/12/2025
8Better Bet Than AAON Stock: Pay Less Than AAON To Get More From GTLS, POWL 08/12/2025
9AAON Dip Buy Analysis07/10/2025
10AAON Total Shareholder Return (TSR): 60.2% in 2024 and 31.5% 3-yr compounded annual returns (above peer average)03/07/2025
11ARTICLES 
12AAON Stock (-9.0%): Q4 EPS Miss & Margin Pressure Overshadow Strong Guidance03/04/2026
13Is SPX Technologies a Better Buy Than AAON?01/01/2026

Trade Ideas

Select ideas related to AAON.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
NSP_3312026_Insider_Buying_45D_2Buy_200K03312026NSPInsperityInsiderInsider Buys 45DStrong Insider Buying
Companies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days		0.0%0.0%0.0%
TNC_3312026_Insider_Buying_45D_2Buy_200K03312026TNCTennantInsiderInsider Buys 45DStrong Insider Buying
Companies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days		0.0%0.0%0.0%
ADP_3272026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield03272026ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin		1.0%1.0%0.0%
HURN_3272026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield03272026HURNHuron ConsultingDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin		4.0%4.0%0.0%
TRU_3272026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield03272026TRUTransUnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin		5.2%5.2%0.0%
AAON_5312023_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%05312023AAONAAONQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run		7.8%30.4%-8.2%
AAON_3312020_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%03312020AAONAAONQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run		23.8%45.8%-7.3%
AAON_5312019_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%05312019AAONAAONQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run		9.1%19.7%-8.8%

Recent Active Movers

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Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AAONCARRTTJCILIIVRTMedian
NameAAON Carrier .Trane Te.Johnson .Lennox I.Vertiv  
Mkt Price92.6258.68462.74137.01484.99301.29219.15
Mkt Cap7.649.2102.683.716.9115.266.5
Rev LTM1,44221,74721,32223,9675,19510,23015,776
Op Inc LTM1501,9073,9673,1541,0531,8961,902
FCF LTM-2042,1212,8121,2986391,8871,593
FCF 3Y Avg-591,4442,5581,7466361,2631,354
CFO LTM12,5133,1941,6967582,1141,905
CFO 3Y Avg1171,8942,9102,1868131,4451,669

Growth & Margins

AAONCARRTTJCILIIVRTMedian
NameAAON Carrier .Trane Te.Johnson .Lennox I.Vertiv  
Rev Chg LTM20.1%-3.3%7.5%3.4%-2.7%27.7%5.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg18.1%8.3%10.1%4.8%3.4%21.7%9.2%
Rev Chg Q42.5%-6.0%5.5%6.8%-11.2%22.7%6.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM9.6%-1.4%1.3%1.6%-2.8%5.5%1.4%
Op Mgn LTM10.4%8.8%18.6%13.2%20.3%18.5%15.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg15.8%9.7%17.5%11.6%18.9%16.4%16.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.1%-1.3%-0.2%1.2%0.3%0.5%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM0.0%11.6%15.0%7.1%14.6%20.7%13.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg9.9%8.9%14.8%9.6%15.7%16.8%12.3%
FCF/Rev LTM-14.2%9.8%13.2%5.4%12.3%18.4%11.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-3.9%6.8%13.0%7.7%12.2%14.6%10.0%

Valuation

AAONCARRTTJCILIIVRTMedian
NameAAON Carrier .Trane Te.Johnson .Lennox I.Vertiv  
Mkt Cap7.649.2102.683.716.9115.266.5
P/S5.22.34.83.53.311.34.2
P/EBIT51.621.826.333.916.263.030.1
P/E70.333.235.224.721.086.534.2
P/CFO14,163.419.632.149.422.354.540.7
Total Yield1.9%4.6%3.7%4.9%5.3%1.2%4.1%
Dividend Yield0.4%1.6%0.8%0.9%0.5%0.1%0.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-0.9%3.1%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.3%3.4%
D/E0.10.20.00.10.10.00.1
Net D/E0.10.20.00.10.10.00.1

Returns

AAONCARRTTJCILIIVRTMedian
NameAAON Carrier .Trane Te.Johnson .Lennox I.Vertiv  
1M Rtn13.6%5.1%9.8%4.0%1.6%13.8%7.4%
3M Rtn5.6%6.0%20.2%22.6%-7.4%76.4%13.1%
6M Rtn-11.0%3.4%10.1%24.4%-7.5%67.0%6.7%
12M Rtn13.3%-1.6%35.8%76.7%-11.9%314.9%24.6%
3Y Rtn47.5%38.1%173.5%152.6%100.4%2,332.1%126.5%
1M Excs Rtn8.7%0.2%5.0%-0.8%-3.3%9.0%2.6%
3M Excs Rtn8.9%5.9%17.8%21.8%-9.2%73.6%13.3%
6M Excs Rtn-14.5%-1.5%5.5%24.1%-12.5%62.9%2.0%
12M Excs Rtn-20.4%-30.6%4.1%47.8%-42.4%302.4%-8.1%
3Y Excs Rtn-21.6%-26.4%108.8%86.8%39.8%2,237.9%63.3%

Comparison Analyses

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
AAON Oklahoma345259   
BASX219190   
Inventories, net187    
Accounts receivable, net147    
Contract assets, net135    
AAON Coil Products12383   
Prepaid expenses and other7    
Restricted cash6    
Income tax receivable4    
Deferred tax assets1    
Other long-term assets0    
Cash and cash equivalents0    
Total1,175532   


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$92.60 
Market Cap ($ Bil)7.6 
First Trading Date12/16/1992 
Distance from 52W High-13.0% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$91.28$88.07
DMA Trendindeterminateindeterminate
Distance from DMA1.5%5.1%
 3M1YR
Volatility48.0%53.0%
Downside Capture0.200.97
Upside Capture100.22157.67
Correlation (SPY)36.7%41.4%
AAON Betas & Captures as of 3/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta1.941.481.641.711.381.45
Up Beta-2.130.620.931.021.281.29
Down Beta2.912.872.822.261.141.40
Up Capture128%103%184%175%217%378%
Bmk +ve Days7162765139424
Stock +ve Days10193260125401
Down Capture219%121%80%150%139%110%
Bmk -ve Days12233358110323
Stock -ve Days12233166127350

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return		Annualized
Volatility		Sharpe
Ratio		Correlation
with AAON
AAON10.6%52.8%0.37-
Sector ETF (XLI)37.8%15.3%1.8961.8%
Equity (SPY)22.0%12.9%1.3642.6%
Gold (GLD)49.0%27.5%1.4410.8%
Commodities (DBC)25.0%16.1%1.388.3%
Real Estate (VNQ)17.3%13.7%0.9224.4%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-10.4%42.6%-0.1424.0%

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Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return		Annualized
Volatility		Sharpe
Ratio		Correlation
with AAON
AAON15.7%42.4%0.48-
Sector ETF (XLI)13.1%17.3%0.6053.4%
Equity (SPY)10.9%17.0%0.5045.9%
Gold (GLD)21.9%17.8%1.019.1%
Commodities (DBC)11.5%18.8%0.505.1%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.0%18.8%0.1233.1%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)5.1%56.5%0.3116.4%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return		Annualized
Volatility		Sharpe
Ratio		Correlation
with AAON
AAON18.6%38.7%0.56-
Sector ETF (XLI)14.0%19.9%0.6251.5%
Equity (SPY)13.8%17.9%0.6747.5%
Gold (GLD)14.3%15.9%0.751.6%
Commodities (DBC)8.7%17.6%0.4110.8%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.4%20.7%0.2233.9%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)67.8%66.9%1.0712.6%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date3312026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity7.3 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 3152026-0.7%
Average Daily Volume0.8 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest9.1 days
Basic Shares Quantity81.7 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares9.0%

Returns Analyses

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
3/2/20263.5%-12.7%-22.6%
11/6/20257.0%9.2%-11.1%
8/11/2025-10.5%-1.2%-2.8%
2/27/2025-22.9%-19.7%-21.3%
11/7/202416.1%11.8%8.4%
8/1/2024-1.3%-1.0%9.9%
2/28/2024-3.4%-6.8%1.5%
11/6/20232.0%2.3%11.0%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111111
# Negative999
Median Positive3.5%3.9%8.4%
Median Negative-3.1%-6.8%-6.6%
Max Positive16.1%18.7%24.8%
Max Negative-22.9%-19.7%-22.6%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
12/31/202503/02/202610-K
09/30/202511/06/202510-Q
06/30/202508/11/202510-Q
03/31/202505/01/202510-Q
12/31/202402/27/202510-K
09/30/202411/07/202410-Q
06/30/202408/01/202410-Q
03/31/202405/02/202410-Q
12/31/202302/28/202410-K
09/30/202311/06/202310-Q
06/30/202308/03/202310-Q
03/31/202305/04/202310-Q
12/31/202202/27/202310-K
09/30/202211/07/202210-Q
06/30/202208/08/202210-Q
03/31/202205/05/202210-Q

Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]

Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/2/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Revenue Growth18.0%19.0%20.0%26.7%4.0%RaisedGuidance: 15.0% for 2025
2026 Gross Profit Margin29.0%30.0%31.0%6.2%1.8%RaisedGuidance: 28.25% for 2025
2026 SG&A as a % of sales 0.16 -4.5%-0.8%LoweredGuidance: 0.17 for 2025
2026 Depreciation & Amortization95.00 Mil97.50 Mil100.00 Mil   
2026 Capital Expenditures 190.00 Mil 5.6% RaisedGuidance: 180.00 Mil for 2025

Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/6/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2025 Revenue Growth14.0%15.0% 15.4%2.0%RaisedGuidance: 13.0% for 2025
2025 Operating Margin28.0%28.25%28.5%-0.9%-0.2%LoweredGuidance: 28.5% for 2025
2025 Non-GAAP adjusted SG&A as a % of sales0.170.170.17   
2025 Capital Expenditures 180.00 Mil    

Insider Activity

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#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value		Value of
Held Shares		Form
1Wakefield, Stephen EExecutive Vice PresidentDirectBuy1215202582.251,00082,250964,792Form
2Wakefield, Stephen EExecutive Vice PresidentDirectBuy1215202580.851,00080,8501,029,220Form
3Wakefield, Stephen EExecutive Vice President401(k) PlanBuy1215202577.594,141321,3001,180,299Form
4Fields, Gary D DirectSell11132025105.143,553373,5622,769,388Form
5Fields, Gary D DirectSell11122025105.2126,7462,813,9472,771,231Form

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