Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Electrification of Everything, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Heat Pump Technology, Show more.
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -6.5%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 58x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 76x
1   Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.4%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -19%
2   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.4%
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Electrification of Everything, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Heat Pump Technology, Show more.
1 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -6.5%
2 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 58x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 76x
3 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.4%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -19%
4 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.4%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

AAON Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Beat. AAON reported robust financial results for the third quarter of 2025 on November 6, 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) of $0.37, surpassing analyst expectations of $0.32 or $0.33. The company also exceeded revenue forecasts, posting $384.2 million against an anticipated $332.53 million or $337.20 million. This positive earnings surprise led to a significant pre-market stock surge of over 21%.

2. Robust Demand for Data Center Solutions. The company experienced substantial growth driven by strong demand for its BASX brand, which specializes in data center cooling solutions and liquid cooling equipment. BASX-branded sales saw a remarkable 95.8% year-over-year increase, and its backlog surged by 119.5%. This segment is anticipated to continue being a primary growth driver for AAON.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AAON Return36%20%-5%48%60%-22%185%
Peers Return38%25%-32%58%-3%-8%65%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AAON Win Rate67%58%42%67%75%60% 
Peers Win Rate68%55%33%58%50%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AAON Max Drawdown-16%-10%-40%-6%-5%-39% 
Peers Max Drawdown-48%-5%-44%-4%-22%-35% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: UFPI, REZI, ROCK, JELD, TT. See AAON Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAAONS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-42.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven73.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven299 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-31.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven44.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven144 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-25.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven34.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven27 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-62.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven167.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven983 days1480 days

Compare to UFPI, REZI, ROCK, JELD, TT


In The Past

AAON's stock fell -42.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/8/2021. A -42.4% loss requires a 73.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About AAON (AAON)

Better Bets than AAON (AAON)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AAON. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
AAON_5312023_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%05312023AAONAAONQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
7.8%30.4%-8.2%
AAON_3312020_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%03312020AAONAAONQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
23.8%45.8%-7.3%
AAON_5312019_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%05312019AAONAAONQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
9.1%19.7%-8.8%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
AAON_5312023_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%05312023AAONAAONQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
7.8%30.4%-8.2%
AAON_3312020_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%03312020AAONAAONQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
23.8%45.8%-7.3%
AAON_5312019_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%05312019AAONAAONQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
9.1%19.7%-8.8%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for AAON

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AAONUFPIREZIROCKJELDTTMedian
NameAAON UFP Indu.Resideo .Gibralta.JELD-WEN Trane Te. 
Mkt Price88.6392.7234.5850.362.68409.0769.50
Mkt Cap7.25.25.21.50.291.15.2
Rev LTM1,3166,4537,4351,4273,30521,0514,879
Op Inc LTM135396625145-493,956270
FCF LTM-256272-1,334106-1692,533-32
FCF 3Y Avg-41541-243171312,431101
CFO LTM-18544-1,233151-102,93671
CFO 3Y Avg117767-1381961722,777184

Growth & Margins

AAONUFPIREZIROCKJELDTTMedian
NameAAON UFP Indu.Resideo .Gibralta.JELD-WEN Trane Te. 
Rev Chg LTM8.8%-3.9%15.5%21.8%-15.3%8.6%8.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg20.7%-12.5%6.1%1.5%-7.1%10.8%3.8%
Rev Chg Q17.4%-5.4%2.0%12.2%-13.4%5.5%3.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM4.5%-1.4%0.5%2.4%-3.7%1.5%1.0%
Op Mgn LTM10.3%6.1%8.4%10.2%-1.5%18.8%9.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg16.4%7.8%8.8%11.1%1.4%17.4%10.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-2.2%-0.3%-0.0%-0.5%-1.0%0.4%-0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM-1.4%8.4%-16.6%10.6%-0.3%13.9%4.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg10.0%10.9%-1.2%14.9%4.0%14.4%10.5%
FCF/Rev LTM-19.5%4.2%-17.9%7.4%-5.1%12.0%-0.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-2.8%7.6%-2.8%13.0%0.3%12.6%3.9%

Valuation

AAONUFPIREZIROCKJELDTTMedian
NameAAON UFP Indu.Resideo .Gibralta.JELD-WEN Trane Te. 
Mkt Cap7.25.25.21.50.291.15.2
P/S5.80.80.91.30.14.51.1
P/EBIT57.812.1-14.112.9-1.024.012.5
P/E76.016.3-10.1442.7-0.632.024.2
P/CFO-424.79.7-5.212.3-44.132.02.2
Total Yield1.7%7.7%-9.9%0.2%-154.5%4.0%1.0%
Dividend Yield0.4%1.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.9%0.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-0.5%8.5%0.5%8.4%-5.7%3.4%1.9%
D/E0.00.10.50.03.30.00.1
Net D/E0.0-0.10.4-0.03.00.00.0

Returns

AAONUFPIREZIROCKJELDTTMedian
NameAAON UFP Indu.Resideo .Gibralta.JELD-WEN Trane Te. 
1M Rtn-7.5%0.3%-19.1%-18.1%-36.2%-8.3%-13.2%
3M Rtn10.7%-5.4%2.2%-15.6%-56.0%0.4%-2.5%
6M Rtn-7.0%-3.8%66.0%-14.8%-30.0%-5.0%-6.0%
12M Rtn-33.1%-30.0%24.6%-29.8%-75.4%0.1%-29.9%
3Y Rtn67.5%15.6%118.7%-1.2%-74.4%136.2%41.5%
1M Excs Rtn-7.4%0.3%-19.1%-18.1%-36.2%-8.3%-13.2%
3M Excs Rtn3.8%-14.7%-6.9%-24.2%-63.9%-6.1%-10.8%
6M Excs Rtn-21.7%-18.5%51.3%-29.6%-44.7%-19.7%-20.7%
12M Excs Rtn-48.2%-44.2%13.7%-44.0%-88.9%-14.4%-44.1%
3Y Excs Rtn5.7%-52.6%47.0%-70.4%-145.2%70.5%-23.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
AAON Oklahoma259    
BASX190    
AAON Coil Products83    
Total532    


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity7,255,055
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120255.4%
Average Daily Volume1,381,418
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.25
Basic Shares Quantity81,543,105
Short % of Basic Shares8.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025811202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231106202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022227202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221107202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022808202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021228202210-K 12/31/2021