American Airlines (AAL)


Market Price (10/23/2026): $12.61 | Market Cap: $8.4 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Passenger Airlines

American Airlines (AAL)


Market Price (10/23/2026): $12.61
Market Cap: $8.4 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Passenger Airlines

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

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Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -33%

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 4.3 Bil

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 48%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Sustainable Transportation, and Digital Transformation of Travel. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -33%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -70%

Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%

Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 346%

Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -11%

Key risks
AAL key risks include its [1] substantial debt load of approximately $36.8 billion, Show more.

0 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -33%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 4.3 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 48%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Sustainable Transportation, and Digital Transformation of Travel. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -33%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -70%
5 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
6 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 346%
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -11%
8 Key risks
AAL key risks include its [1] substantial debt load of approximately $36.8 billion, Show more.

AAL in ETFs

Weight = AAL's share of each fund

VTI0.01%
ITOT0.01%
IWB0.01%
IJH0.23%
VB0.11%
IYT1.1%
MDYV0.47%
IJJ0.43%
+18 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 10/22/2026

American Airlines (AAL) stock has lost about 30% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. American Airlines drastically cut its full-year fiscal 2026 earnings guidance from an initial expectation of $1.70 to $2.70 earnings per share (EPS) to a significant projected loss of $1.00 to $1.60 EPS. This substantial revision came after the company reported a GAAP net loss of $269 million in fiscal Q3 2026 (ended September 30, 2026), despite achieving record revenue of $16.3 billion, up 19.3% year-over-year. The shift from anticipated profitability to a considerable loss signaled deteriorating financial prospects to investors.

2. Soaring jet fuel costs significantly eroded profitability, surpassing record revenue growth. In fiscal Q3 2026, American Airlines experienced a 67.5% year-over-year surge in jet fuel expense, which added $1.9 billion to its costs. The average price paid for fuel in fiscal Q3 2026 was $3.85 per gallon, a notable increase from $2.37 per gallon in fiscal Q3 2025. The company anticipates its total fuel expense for fiscal year 2026 to be more than $7 billion higher than in fiscal year 2025, with Q4 2026 guidance assuming fuel near $4.70 per gallon, nearly double Q4 2025 levels. This macroeconomic headwind disproportionately impacted American Airlines, as competitors largely managed to maintain healthy profits.

Show more
Updated on 10/22/2026

American Airlines (AAL) stock has lost about 30% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. American Airlines drastically cut its full-year fiscal 2026 earnings guidance from an initial expectation of $1.70 to $2.70 earnings per share (EPS) to a significant projected loss of $1.00 to $1.60 EPS. This substantial revision came after the company reported a GAAP net loss of $269 million in fiscal Q3 2026 (ended September 30, 2026), despite achieving record revenue of $16.3 billion, up 19.3% year-over-year. The shift from anticipated profitability to a considerable loss signaled deteriorating financial prospects to investors.

2. Soaring jet fuel costs significantly eroded profitability, surpassing record revenue growth. In fiscal Q3 2026, American Airlines experienced a 67.5% year-over-year surge in jet fuel expense, which added $1.9 billion to its costs. The average price paid for fuel in fiscal Q3 2026 was $3.85 per gallon, a notable increase from $2.37 per gallon in fiscal Q3 2025. The company anticipates its total fuel expense for fiscal year 2026 to be more than $7 billion higher than in fiscal year 2025, with Q4 2026 guidance assuming fuel near $4.70 per gallon, nearly double Q4 2025 levels. This macroeconomic headwind disproportionately impacted American Airlines, as competitors largely managed to maintain healthy profits.

3. Numerous analysts downgraded American Airlines and reduced their price targets, reflecting a negative sentiment shift. Following the company's challenging outlook, between July and October 2026, multiple investment firms lowered their price targets for AAL stock. Notable reductions included Susquehanna cutting its target from $20 to $15, Wells Fargo from $17 to $14, Goldman Sachs from $13 to $11, and UBS from $18 to $17, and then further to $16. This collective adjustment by analysts contributed to a consensus "Hold" rating and a median price target of $16.16 by October 2026.

4. Insiders engaged in significant selling activity, with transactions exceeding the $5 million threshold. Within the past twelve months, insiders at American Airlines Group Inc. conducted open-market sales totaling $7.0 million. This included Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer David Seymour selling 125,799 shares across June 24 and June 25, 2026, for approximately $2.18 million, and Vice Chair Stephen L. Johnson selling 30,000 shares on July 31, 2026, for approximately $0.46 million. While individual transactions varied, the aggregate insider selling in the specified period signals a lack of confidence from key company figures.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -30.3% change in AAL stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -35.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)630202610222026Change
Stock Price ($)18.0712.60-30.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)55,99460,9818.9%
P/S Multiple0.20.1-35.8%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)661663-0.2%
Cumulative Contribution-30.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/30/2026 to 10/22/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AAL-30.3% 
Market (SPY)2.3%57.4%
Sector (XLI)-10.0%35.3%

Fundamental Drivers

The 17.3% change in AAL stock from 3/31/2026 to 10/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 11.6% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)331202610222026Change
Stock Price ($)10.7412.6017.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)54,63360,98111.6%
P/S Multiple0.10.15.5%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)660663-0.3%
Cumulative Contribution17.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2026 to 10/22/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AAL17.3% 
Market (SPY)17.8%53.1%
Sector (XLI)3.3%48.1%

Fundamental Drivers

The 12.1% change in AAL stock from 9/30/2025 to 10/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 12.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)930202510222026Change
Stock Price ($)11.2412.6012.1%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)54,25060,98112.4%
P/S Multiple0.10.10.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)660663-0.4%
Cumulative Contribution12.1%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

9/30/2025 to 10/22/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AAL12.1% 
Market (SPY)15.6%51.3%
Sector (XLI)9.0%48.9%

Fundamental Drivers

The -1.6% change in AAL stock from 9/30/2023 to 10/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -13.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)930202310222026Change
Stock Price ($)12.8112.60-1.6%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)52,89460,98115.3%
P/S Multiple0.20.1-13.5%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)654663-1.4%
Cumulative Contribution-1.6%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

9/30/2023 to 10/22/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AAL-1.6% 
Market (SPY)84.8%53.1%
Sector (XLI)71.0%51.8%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
AAL Return14%-29%8%27%-12%-20%-22%
Peers Return-2%-25%-1%63%-2%-13%2%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%12%104%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AAL Win Rate50%50%42%50%50%30% 
Peers Win Rate43%47%43%65%52%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%50% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AAL Max Drawdown-37%-41%-42%-41%-51%-36% 
Peers Max Drawdown-38%-42%-45%-32%-47%-37% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: DAL, UAL, LUV, ALK, JBLU. See AAL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/22/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventAALS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-43.3%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven76.4%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven258 days79 days
2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind
  % Loss-17.0%-7.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven20.4%8.5%
  Time to Breakeven33 days18 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-34.4%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven52.5%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven405 days24 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-22.8%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven29.6%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven49 days31 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-36.7%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven58.1%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven288 days427 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-18.7%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven23.0%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven280 days62 days

Compare to DAL, UAL, LUV, ALK, JBLU

In The Past

American Airlines's stock fell -43.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 76.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventAALS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-43.3%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven76.4%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven258 days79 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-34.4%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven52.5%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven405 days24 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-22.8%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven29.6%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven49 days31 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-36.7%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven58.1%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven288 days427 days
2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse
  % Loss-26.5%-6.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven36.0%7.3%
  Time to Breakeven10 days15 days
2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion
  % Loss-31.9%-17.9%
  % Gain to Breakeven46.9%21.8%
  Time to Breakeven114 days123 days
2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis
  % Loss-88.8%-53.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven793.2%114.4%
  Time to Breakeven1702 days1085 days
Summer 2007 Credit Crunch
  % Loss-26.7%-8.6%
  % Gain to Breakeven36.5%9.5%
  Time to Breakeven2368 days47 days

Compare to DAL, UAL, LUV, ALK, JBLU

In The Past

American Airlines's stock fell -43.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 76.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About American Airlines (AAL)

American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) operates as a major network air carrier, providing essential scheduled air transportation services. The company's core business involves transporting both passengers and cargo across an extensive network, making it a critical player in global and domestic travel and logistics.

The company serves its primary customers—travelers and businesses needing air freight—through a strategic network of hubs located in key U.S. cities such as Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix, and Washington, D.C. American Airlines further extends its market reach internationally through partner gateways in global cities like London, Madrid, Seattle/Tacoma, Sydney, and Tokyo, connecting diverse markets worldwide.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are a couple of analogies for American Airlines:

  • American Airlines is like the Walmart for air travel, providing widespread, large-scale transportation across a vast network.
  • American Airlines is similar to Amazon for air transportation, operating a massive logistical network to move people and cargo globally.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Major services provided by American Airlines (AAL):

  • Scheduled Air Transportation for Passengers: Providing commercial flights for individuals traveling between various domestic and international destinations.
  • Scheduled Air Transportation for Cargo: Transporting freight, mail, and other goods through its air network.

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Major Customers of American Airlines (AAL)

American Airlines primarily sells its services directly to individuals and businesses, rather than to a few major corporate customers. The company serves a diverse customer base for both passenger travel and cargo.

Its primary customer categories are:

  • Leisure Travelers: Individuals traveling for personal reasons such as vacations, family visits, or other non-business purposes.
  • Business Travelers: Individuals traveling for professional purposes, often on behalf of their employers, for meetings, conferences, corporate events, or work-related assignments.
  • Cargo Customers: Businesses, including freight forwarders, logistics companies, and various industries that require air transportation for goods, packages, and other cargo.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Boeing (BA)
  • Airbus (EADSY)
  • General Electric (GE)
  • Raytheon Technologies (RTX)
  • Rolls-Royce Holdings plc (RYCEY)
  • Safran S.A. (SAFRY)
  • Sabre Corporation (SABR)
  • Amadeus IT Group S.A. (AMADY)

AI Analysis | Feedback

Robert Isom – Chief Executive Officer

Robert Isom is the Chief Executive Officer of American Airlines Group and its subsidiary American Airlines, a role he assumed in March 2022. He also serves on the airline's board of directors. Isom joined American Airlines in 2013 following the merger of US Airways and American Airlines, where he had served as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of US Airways. Prior to that, he held senior executive finance, commercial, operations, strategy, and international roles at GMAC, LLC, Northwest Airlines, and America West Airlines. He began his career at The Procter & Gamble Company. During his career, he was chief restructuring officer of GMAC, LLC.

Devon May – Chief Financial Officer

Devon May was named Chief Financial Officer of American Airlines, effective January 1, 2023. In this role, he oversees all global corporate risk, corporate development, and corporate financial functions. May joined America West in 2002 and has over 20 years of airline industry experience across finance, operations, network planning, and alliances. Before his appointment as CFO, he served as Senior Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations, and previously as Senior Vice President of Finance and American Eagle, and Senior Vice President of Network Strategy. Prior to joining American Airlines in 2013, he was Vice President of Financial Planning and Analysis at US Airways, and held Director or Managing Director roles in Alliances, Network Planning, Financial Planning, and Financial Analysis at America West Airlines.

Steve Johnson – Vice Chair and Chief Strategy Officer

Steve Johnson is the Vice Chair and Chief Strategy Officer at American Airlines Group Inc., a position he has held since May 2023. He leads the design and development of strategies across the airline and focuses on the economy and its impact on the business. Johnson joined America West Airlines in 1995, holding various positions including Executive Vice President – Corporate. From 2003 to 2009, he was a partner at Indigo Partners, a private equity firm specializing in airline industry investments. He later joined US Airways in 2009.

Ganesh Jayaram – Chief Digital and Information Officer

Ganesh Jayaram serves as the Chief Digital and Information Officer at American Airlines. In this role, he is responsible for all technology efforts.

Cole Brown – Chief People Officer

Cole Brown is American's Chief People Officer. She leads all aspects of the airline's People organization.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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Key Risks to American Airlines (AAL)

  1. High Debt Levels and Fragile Financial Stability: American Airlines faces significant risks due to its substantial debt burden and overall financial fragility. The company's debt-to-equity ratio is notably high, and its interest coverage ratio is extremely low, indicating that earnings are often insufficient to cover interest expenses, potentially leading to further debt issuance.
  2. Volatility in Fuel Prices and Operational Costs: The airline's profitability is highly sensitive to fluctuating fuel prices and other significant operational costs. American Airlines has historically incurred higher average fuel costs per gallon compared to some of its major U.S. peers, exacerbating this risk.
  3. Sensitivity to Economic Downturns and Geopolitical Events: American Airlines has demonstrated a poorer ability to withstand economic downturns compared to the broader market. Additionally, geopolitical risks, such as conflicts, can increase fuel costs and complicate travel routes, impacting market forecasts and operational expectations.
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AI Analysis | Feedback

The emergence of Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) or electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing (eVTOL) aircraft poses a clear emerging threat to American Airlines.

These new aircraft are designed for short-to-medium distance travel, potentially offering faster, more direct, and potentially more environmentally friendly alternatives for regional and feeder routes that currently comprise a portion of American Airlines' domestic network. As eVTOL technology advances and becomes commercially viable (with companies actively developing and testing these aircraft for market entry in the coming years), it could disrupt conventional short-haul air travel and ground transportation to/from major hubs. This parallels historical disruptions where a new technology or service model (like Uber for taxis or Netflix for Blockbuster) offered a superior or more convenient alternative for specific market segments.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The addressable markets for American Airlines' main products and services, which include passenger and cargo air transportation, are substantial across global and North American regions.

Passenger Air Transportation Market

  • Globally, the passenger air transport market was valued at approximately USD 830.72 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach around USD 1,859.54 billion by 2032, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 12.2%. Other estimates indicate the global passenger air transport market will grow from USD 870.78 billion in 2025 to USD 925.84 billion in 2026 at a CAGR of 6.3%, and is expected to reach USD 1.2 trillion by 2030.
  • The passenger air transportation segment consistently dominates the broader air transportation market, accounting for 69.8% of the total market demand.
  • North America is a significant region for passenger air travel. In 2025, the commercial aviation segment, driven by passenger demand, held approximately 61.35% of the North America aviation market.

Cargo Air Transportation Market

  • The global air cargo market was estimated at USD 257.44 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 501.32 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 10.3% from 2024 to 2030. Another assessment valued the global air cargo market at USD 182.09 billion in 2023, expecting it to reach USD 268.79 billion by 2032 with a CAGR of 4.4%.
  • Within the air cargo market, the air freight segment captured the highest share at 61.59% in 2023 due to demand for high-value and time-sensitive goods.
  • For North America, the air cargo market was valued at USD 31.94 billion in 2022 and is projected to reach USD 43.20 billion by 2028, at a CAGR of approximately 5.2%. The North America air cargo and freight logistics market generated a revenue of USD 14.72 billion in 2023 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 12.3% from 2024 to 2030, reaching a projected revenue of USD 33.17 billion by 2030.
  • The United States air freight transport market size is estimated at USD 51.99 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 64.11 billion by 2031, growing at a 4.29% CAGR. Another report states the U.S. air freight market was valued at USD 64.06 billion in 2025 and is forecast to reach USD 91.81 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 4.08%.

Overall Air Transportation Market (Passenger and Cargo)

  • The global air transportation market was valued at approximately USD 814 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach around USD 1,241 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 4.9% from 2024 to 2032. Other estimates place the global airlines market size, which includes passenger and cargo movement, at USD 588.67 billion in 2025, anticipated to reach USD 786.39 billion by 2034 with a CAGR of 3.27%. The air transport market is also projected to grow from USD 1,049.48 billion in 2025 to USD 1,466.71 billion in 2030.
  • The North America aviation market was valued at USD 79 billion based on a five-year historical analysis and is expected to grow from USD 84.14 billion in 2025 to USD 99.71 billion by 2031, at a CAGR of 2.87%.

AI Analysis | Feedback

American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) anticipates several key drivers to fuel its revenue growth over the next 2-3 years:

  1. Recovery and Growth in Business Travel: American Airlines expects continued revenue growth from the recovery of business travel, particularly from small and medium-sized businesses. The company has observed sequential improvement in managed corporate travel, with domestic business revenue growth surpassing capacity growth in the first quarter of 2024. Corporate revenue notably increased by 14% year-over-year in the third quarter of 2025.
  2. Expansion of Premium Offerings and Enhanced Customer Experience: A significant driver of future revenue is the focus on delivering premium content and enhancing the premium customer experience. American Airlines is investing in product improvements, including the introduction of new state-of-the-art flagship suite seats on its long-haul aircraft (retrofitting Boeing 777-300s and future Airbus A321XLR and Boeing 787-9 deliveries). Premium content, which encompasses upsell, loyalty, and partnership revenue, constituted 61% of the company's revenue in Q1 2024, marking a 17% increase year-over-year. Premium unit revenue outperformed main cabin revenue, and premium cabins contributed nearly 50% of ticket revenue in Q3 2025, with premium seat growth projected to be almost double the pace of main cabin growth.
  3. Growth of the AAdvantage Loyalty Program and Co-branded Credit Cards: The AAdvantage loyalty program is identified as a major high-margin revenue generator. The company has seen an increase in active accounts and co-branded credit card spending. Cash payments from co-branded credit card partners and other alliances are projected to grow by approximately 10% annually, with expectations to reach around $10 billion annually by the end of the decade, contributing an estimated $1.5 billion in incremental annual pretax income compared to 2024. AAdvantage customers were responsible for 72% of premium content revenue in Q1 2024. Active AAdvantage members contributed 77% to premium revenue in Q2 2025.
  4. Network Expansion and Optimization: American Airlines is strategically expanding and optimizing its network to drive revenue growth. This includes plans to add 15 new routes for the summer of 2026 and increasing daily departures from key hubs like Chicago, aiming for over 500 daily departures by 2026. The airline is prioritizing capacity restoration in critical markets such as Chicago, Philadelphia, and New York.
  5. Indirect Revenue Recapture and Digital Transformation: The airline is focused on regaining its historical share of revenue from indirect sales channels, with an expectation to achieve this by the end of 2025 and continue expansion into 2026. This strategy involves refining fare offerings and upgrading commercial processes and technology to enhance revenue generation. Improved indirect channel revenue performance has been noted, with expectations for it to return to normal historical levels by the end of 2025.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Capital Allocation Decisions (2021-2026) for American Airlines (AAL)

Share Repurchases

  • American Airlines reported $0.00 in share buybacks for the latest twelve months ending December 31, 2025.
  • The 5-Year Share Buyback Ratio as of December 2025 was -1.00%, indicating an absence of repurchases or a focus on share issuance during that period.

Share Issuance

  • A 5-Year Share Buyback Ratio of -1.00% as of December 2025 suggests the company may have been issuing new shares over this period.

Capital Expenditures

  • American Airlines' capital expenditures averaged $2.362 billion annually from fiscal years 2021 to 2025, reaching $3.779 billion in 2025.
  • The company projects capital expenditures between $4 billion and $4.5 billion for 2026, primarily focused on fleet expansion and modernization, including the delivery of 55 new aircraft.
  • A $1 billion investment was announced in February 2026 to expand facilities at Miami International Airport with a new Concourse D extension, aiming to enhance customer experience and operational efficiency, with groundbreaking scheduled for 2027.

Better Bets vs. American Airlines (AAL)

Peer Outperformance in Passenger Airlines

AAL has outperformed 50% of its 10 Passenger Airlines peers over 5Y. Among the peers that beat it are UAL, DAL and LUV. Passenger Airlines ranks 19th of 23 industries in Industrials by median 5Y return. The sector’s gains have largely come from elsewhere.
Share of Passenger Airlines constituents that AAL has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
45%
of 11 industry peers · 4.2% return
3Y
45%
of 11 industry peers · 11.6% return
5Y
50%
of 10 industry peers · -34.2% return
Passenger Airlines peers with revenue growth within 4pp of AAL's that beat it on at least 2 of 3 windows, and by at least 20pp over 5Y. Growth is matched by construction, so the gap is largely a re-rating gap. The multiple column is the context for it.
Ticker Name Rev Growth 3Y Avg P/E 1Y3Y5Y 5Y Gap
AAL American Airlines 5.0% -17.4x 4.2%11.6%-34.2% —
UAL United Airlines 7.7% 9.3x 6.0%188.3%118.3% +152pp
DAL Delta Air Lines 7.9% 15.8x 33.5%155.7%107.2% +141pp
LUV Southwest Airlines 7.6% 19.5x 26.7%84.5%-3.9% +30pp
Price returns, excluding dividends. P/E shown for context only and not used for matching.
Median price return by industry across the Industrials sector, ranked by 5Y. Passenger Airlines is AAL's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
Industry Names 1Y med3Y med5Y med Top 3 by 5Y
Construction & Engineering 30 -2.5%102.3%139.8% STRL 1538% · FIX 1451% · AGX 712%
Marine Transportation 5 53.7%50.1%131.4% MATX 188% · KEX 131%
Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment 13 2.1%58.8%94.9% CAT 280% · ALSN 241% · WAB 208%
Aerospace & Defense 52 -12.6%59.4%57.0% ATI 913% · FTAI 721% · HWM 544%
Trading Companies & Distributors 19 12.5%32.3%51.1% DXPE 382% · AIT 233% · URI 213%
Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components 72 5.8%55.2%38.4% CRS 867% · MLI 375% · SYM 308%
Diversified Support Services 34 11.3%38.9%36.6% CXW 226% · OPLN 155% · CTAS 120%
Rail Transportation 7 32.2%62.3%31.1% CSX 56% · UNP 40% · NSC 31%
Building Products 33 -7.3%12.9%24.5% GFF 344% · TT 164% · JCI 114%
Cargo Ground Transportation 16 33.6%6.9%19.4% XPO 262% · R 237% · ARCB 51%
Electrical Components & Equipment 37 -11.3%70.5%3.7% POWL 1786% · BE 979% · VRT 717%
Industrial Conglomerates 17 7.7%8.7%-5.9% CSW 121% · DD 72% · CSL 64%
Agricultural & Farm Machinery 16 1.5%-1.6%-10.6% DE 102% · TTC 15% · AGCO -6%
Data Processing & Outsourced Services 6 -21.6%0.4%-15.0% EXLS 73% · BR 11% · G -12%
Research & Consulting Services 13 4.1%-12.2%-15.9% HURN 290% · FCN 11% · BAH 5%
Security & Alarm Services 9 -52.1%12.7%-21.3% BCO 99%
Office Services & Supplies 9 19.4%18.4%-24.4% PBI 201% · TILE 148% · HNI 43%
Environmental & Facilities Services 29 -26.4%32.4%-32.4% GEO 231% · CLH 180% · RSG 93%
Passenger Airlines ← 11 5.1%20.4%-34.2% LTM 3130% · UAL 118% · DAL 107%
Passenger Ground Transportation 3 -25.1%60.5%-36.4% UBER 52% · CAR -36% · LYFT -64%
Air Freight & Logistics 12 -25.4%-18.7%-39.6% FDX 80% · EXPD 69% · CHRW 61%
Human Resource & Employment Services 22 17.2%-9.0%-42.0% ADP 58% · PAYX 12% · FA 10%
Airport Services 4 -69.6%-68.3%-83.5% JOBY -48%
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are limited to companies above $2B market cap.

Latest Trefis Analyses

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AALDALUALLUVALKJBLUMedian
NameAmerican.Delta Ai.United A.Southwes.Alaska A.JetBlue . 
Mkt Price12.6179.01101.9741.8235.392.6438.61
Mkt Cap8.451.833.120.43.91.014.4
Rev LTM60,98171,80065,55231,54614,7639,50346,264
Op Inc LTM1,0365,2864,1661,385-44-5591,210
FCF LTM-913,0221,116-449-350-1,129-220
FCF 3Y Avg-1062,4471,710-891-238-1,371-172
CFO LTM4,2678,0008,1602,7561,020-1283,512
CFO 3Y Avg3,2007,5517,9471,7301,179-832,465

Growth & Margins

AALDALUALLUVALKJBLUMedian
NameAmerican.Delta Ai.United A.Southwes.Alaska A.JetBlue . 
Rev Chg LTM12.3%14.1%12.3%14.5%9.8%4.0%12.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg5.0%7.9%7.7%7.6%13.1%-1.3%7.7%
Rev Chg Q19.3%21.1%17.4%21.2%9.7%14.5%18.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM4.5%5.1%4.2%4.9%2.5%3.7%4.4%
Op Inc Chg LTM-54.1%-12.9%-19.3%339.7%-105.5%-305.1%-36.7%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg-38.0%-1.9%-8.0%92.8%-36.6%-142.2%-22.3%
Op Mgn LTM1.7%7.4%6.4%4.4%-0.3%-5.9%3.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg3.7%8.8%7.9%1.4%4.3%-3.4%4.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.1%-0.7%-0.4%0.9%-3.2%-1.6%-0.6%
CFO/Rev LTM7.0%11.1%12.4%8.7%6.9%-1.3%7.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg5.6%11.6%13.3%5.9%9.3%-0.9%7.6%
FCF/Rev LTM-0.1%4.2%1.7%-1.4%-2.4%-11.9%-0.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-0.2%3.7%2.9%-3.2%-1.9%-14.7%-1.1%

Valuation

AALDALUALLUVALKJBLUMedian
NameAmerican.Delta Ai.United A.Southwes.Alaska A.JetBlue . 
Mkt Cap8.451.833.120.43.91.014.4
P/S0.10.70.50.60.30.10.4
P/Op Inc8.19.88.014.8-89.4-1.88.0
P/EBIT7.610.45.913.3-31.0-2.36.7
P/E-17.415.79.319.4-22.5-1.14.1
P/CFO2.06.54.17.43.9-7.84.0
Total Yield-5.8%7.3%10.8%6.9%-4.5%-88.9%1.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.0%0.0%1.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-1.4%5.9%5.5%-5.0%-4.8%-72.2%-3.1%
D/E4.50.41.00.31.99.51.5
Net D/E3.50.30.60.21.37.40.9

Returns

AALDALUALLUVALKJBLUMedian
NameAmerican.Delta Ai.United A.Southwes.Alaska A.JetBlue . 
1M Rtn-7.3%-5.6%-11.5%-0.6%-15.6%-42.0%-9.4%
3M Rtn-7.0%-3.3%-11.6%-6.0%-20.9%-47.1%-9.3%
6M Rtn7.0%16.5%11.7%11.8%-14.0%-49.7%9.4%
12M Rtn4.3%33.1%5.9%26.1%-25.8%-42.9%5.1%
3Y Rtn11.7%154.9%188.2%83.5%8.7%-40.8%47.6%
1M Excs Rtn-4.9%-2.5%-7.3%2.5%-10.3%-39.3%-6.1%
3M Excs Rtn-16.2%-10.2%-17.1%-10.1%-26.6%-53.2%-16.7%
6M Excs Rtn-0.7%8.8%4.0%4.1%-21.8%-57.4%1.6%
12M Excs Rtn-11.6%14.5%-11.9%9.1%-41.5%-57.0%-11.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-69.6%60.6%79.0%-1.9%-72.4%-116.2%-35.7%

FDA Approved Drugs Data

Expand for More
Post-Approval Fwd Returns
FDA
App #
Brand
Name
Generic
Name
Dosage
Form
FDA
Approval
3M
Rtn
6M
Rtn
1Y
Rtn
2Y
Rtn
Total
Rtn
NDA207114  MEDICAL AIR, USPmedical airgas5122014-3.4%11.8%25.2%-15.0%-66.1%
Collapse to Preview
Post-Approval Fwd Returns
FDA
App #
Brand
Name
Generic
Name
Dosage
Form
FDA
Approval
3M
Rtn
6M
Rtn
1Y
Rtn
2Y
Rtn
Total
Rtn
NDA207114  MEDICAL AIR, USPmedical airgas5122014-3.4%11.8%25.2%-15.0%-66.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Scheduled air transportation for passengers and cargo, and includes American’s loyalty program54,63354,21152,78848,971 
Cargo    1,314
Other revenue    2,505
Passenger revenue    26,063
Total54,63354,21152,78848,97129,882


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil1998199719961995
Airline Group1,951   
Sabre group350308327382
AMR Management Services Group 497069
Air Transportation Group 1,5691,442564
Total2,3011,9261,8391,015


Assets by Segment
$ Mil1998199719961995
Airline Group19,582   
Sabre group1,9271,5031,246587
AMR Management Services Group 297287313
Air Transportation Group 18,70918,56018,299
Total21,50920,50920,09319,199


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$12.60 
Market Cap ($ Bil)8.4 
First Trading Date09/27/2005 
Distance from 52W High-30.6% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$13.17$13.62
DMA Trenddowndown
Distance from DMA-4.3%-7.5%
 3M1YR
Volatility38.2%47.9%
Downside Capture341.17221.07
Upside Capture168.72183.36
Correlation (S&P 500)62.6%52.8%
AAL Betas & Captures as of 9/30/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta2.172.252.472.121.911.69
Up Beta1.202.711.672.832.312.03
Down Beta3.551.593.071.291.211.47
Up Capture218%167%193%248%312%306%
Bmk +ve Days6162766132424
Stock +ve Days11182663124368
Down Capture206%296%311%189%152%111%
Bmk -ve Days16263760120328
Stock -ve Days10233762123369

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with AAL
AAL2.0%47.9%0.19-
Sector ETF (XLI)8.6%17.2%0.3148.3%
Equity (SPY)14.8%12.7%0.8051.7%
Gold (GLD)-2.2%28.4%-0.0915.9%
Commodities (DBC)52.1%20.7%1.91-49.7%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.7%13.9%0.0835.6%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-22.4%43.4%-0.4721.8%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with AAL
AAL-8.4%48.4%-0.02-
Sector ETF (XLI)12.0%17.6%0.5155.5%
Equity (SPY)13.0%17.1%0.5756.4%
Gold (GLD)17.1%18.9%0.722.1%
Commodities (DBC)9.3%19.5%0.36-10.0%
Real Estate (VNQ)1.1%18.9%-0.0541.5%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)8.0%51.7%0.3327.4%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with AAL
AAL-9.9%53.0%0.01-
Sector ETF (XLI)13.2%20.0%0.5757.2%
Equity (SPY)15.4%17.9%0.7350.2%
Gold (GLD)11.9%16.4%0.590.8%
Commodities (DBC)8.3%18.1%0.375.2%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.2%20.7%0.2140.3%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)63.0%66.2%1.0313.9%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date9302026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity78.6 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 9152026-14.2%
Average Daily Volume74.5 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.1 days
Basic Shares Quantity662.7 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares11.9%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 10/22/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
7/23/2026-8.4%0.3%-8.6%
4/23/20262.4%-1.7%18.2%
1/27/2026-7.0%-6.0%-8.6%
10/23/20255.6%7.3%1.2%
7/24/2025-9.6%-9.2%-0.9%
4/24/20253.1%6.8%22.3%
1/23/2025-8.7%-7.1%-18.4%
10/24/2024-0.4%8.7%10.7%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131211
# Negative111213
Median Positive3.1%4.0%8.6%
Median Negative-6.2%-6.1%-4.3%
Max Positive10.3%8.7%26.4%
Max Negative-9.6%-14.1%-19.1%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
7/23/2026-8.4%0.3%-8.6%
4/23/20262.4%-1.7%18.2%
1/27/2026-7.0%-6.0%-8.6%
10/23/20255.6%7.3%1.2%
7/24/2025-9.6%-9.2%-0.9%
4/24/20253.1%6.8%22.3%
1/23/2025-8.7%-7.1%-18.4%
10/24/2024-0.4%8.7%10.7%
7/25/20244.2%4.6%-0.3%
4/25/20241.5%-2.4%-0.7%
1/25/202410.3%2.2%8.6%
10/19/20230.8%-2.8%7.3%
7/20/2023-6.2%-9.9%-19.1%
4/27/20231.1%8.2%12.9%
1/26/20232.2%2.6%-4.3%
10/20/2022-3.8%0.1%-0.3%
7/21/2022-7.4%-8.2%-2.4%
4/21/20223.8%-2.6%-14.0%
1/20/2022-3.2%-6.2%5.3%
10/21/20211.9%-2.5%-0.7%
7/22/2021-1.1%1.1%-12.5%
4/22/2021-4.5%3.3%7.6%
1/28/20219.3%6.3%26.4%
10/22/20203.2%-14.1%0.4%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131211
# Negative111213
Median Positive3.1%4.0%8.6%
Median Negative-6.2%-6.1%-4.3%
Max Positive10.3%8.7%26.4%
Max Negative-9.6%-14.1%-19.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
09/30/202610/22/202610-Q
06/30/202607/23/202610-Q
03/31/202604/23/202610-Q
12/31/202502/18/202610-K
09/30/202510/23/202510-Q
06/30/202507/24/202510-Q
03/31/202504/24/202510-Q
12/31/202402/19/202510-K
09/30/202410/24/202410-Q
06/30/202407/25/202410-Q
03/31/202404/25/202410-Q
12/31/202302/21/202410-K
09/30/202310/19/202310-Q
06/30/202307/20/202310-Q
03/31/202304/27/202310-Q
12/31/202202/22/202310-K
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
09/30/202610/22/202610-Q
06/30/202607/23/202610-Q
03/31/202604/23/202610-Q
12/31/202502/18/202610-K
09/30/202510/23/202510-Q
06/30/202507/24/202510-Q
03/31/202504/24/202510-Q
12/31/202402/19/202510-K
09/30/202410/24/202410-Q
06/30/202407/25/202410-Q
03/31/202404/25/202410-Q
12/31/202302/21/202410-K
09/30/202310/19/202310-Q
06/30/202307/20/202310-Q
03/31/202304/27/202310-Q
12/31/202202/22/202310-K
09/30/202210/20/202210-Q
06/30/202207/21/202210-Q
03/31/202204/21/202210-Q
12/31/202102/22/202210-K
09/30/202110/21/202110-Q
06/30/202107/22/202110-Q
03/31/202104/22/202110-Q
12/31/202002/17/202110-K
09/30/202010/22/202010-Q
06/30/202007/23/202010-Q
03/31/202004/30/202010-Q
12/31/201902/19/202010-K

Insider Activity

Updated 9/21/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Johnson, Stephen LVice ChairDirectSell803202615.2930,000458,79029,643,294Form
2Johnson, Stephen LVice ChairDirectSell803202615.2630,000457,87830,042,246Form
3Owens, AngelaSVP Corporate ControllerDirectSell731202615.2640,077611,6232,728,687Form
4Johnson, Stephen LVice ChairDirectSell729202615.0130,000450,37830,000,534Form
5Johnson, Stephen LVice ChairDirectSell729202615.1630,000454,81830,751,109Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Johnson, Stephen LVice ChairDirectSell803202615.2930,000458,79029,643,294Form
2Johnson, Stephen LVice ChairDirectSell803202615.2630,000457,87830,042,246Form
3Owens, AngelaSVP Corporate ControllerDirectSell731202615.2640,077611,6232,728,687Form
4Johnson, Stephen LVice ChairDirectSell729202615.0130,000450,37830,000,534Form
5Johnson, Stephen LVice ChairDirectSell729202615.1630,000454,81830,751,109Form
6Owens, AngelaSVP Corporate ControllerDirectSell729202615.3439,168601,0173,358,565Form
7Johnson, Stephen LVice ChairDirectSell729202614.6730,000440,11230,196,921Form
8Seymour, DavidEVP Chief Operating OfficerDirectSell626202618.0056,4561,016,24217,443,175Form
9Seymour, DavidEVP Chief Operating OfficerDirectSell626202617.0069,3431,178,83117,433,313Form
10Seymour, DavidEVP Chief Operating OfficerDirectSell1217202516.0125,595409,69914,921,661Form
11Seymour, DavidEVP Chief Operating OfficerDirectSell1211202515.0162,507938,28614,707,320Form

Investor Activity (13F)

Updated Oct 23, 2026
13F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)

Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.

Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Slate Path Capital LP$69.5 Mil1.0%44TRIM -28.4%13F
Par Capital Management Inc$13.4 Mil0.4%45Hold13F
Active Manager
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQAs OfFiling
Appaloosa LP$216.9 Mil3.2%38ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Slate Path Capital LP$69.5 Mil1.0%44TRIM -28.4%Mar 31, 202613F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Slate Path Capital LP$69.5 Mil1.0%44TRIM -28.4%13F
Par Capital Management Inc$13.4 Mil0.4%45Hold13F
Core Cache Last Updated: 10/22/2026