American Airlines (AAL)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $14.62 | Market Cap: $9.7 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Passenger Airlines
American Airlines (AAL)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $14.62Market Cap: $9.7 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Passenger Airlines
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.0%, FCF Yield is 12% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -31%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -68% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 393% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 3.8 Bil | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Sustainable Transportation, and Digital Transformation of Travel. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.0%, FCF Yield is 12% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 3.8 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Sustainable Transportation, and Digital Transformation of Travel. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -31%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -68% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 393% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
AAL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Based on the approximate period from November 3, 2025, to December 3, 2025, American Airlines (AAL) stock experienced an upward movement of approximately 9.07%. Here are the key points contributing to this change:
1. Better-than-Expected Q3 2025 Earnings Report. American Airlines reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results on October 23, 2025, with a GAAP net loss of $114 million, or ($0.17) per diluted share. This performance surpassed analysts' consensus estimates, which had projected a loss of ($0.27) per share. The company's revenue of $13.7 billion also aligned with Wall Street's expectations.
2. Positive Outlook for Q4 and Full-Year 2025. Following its earnings release, American Airlines provided optimistic guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025, anticipating adjusted earnings per share (EPS) between $0.45 and $0.75. For the full year 2025, adjusted EPS was projected to be between $0.65 and $0.95. This positive forward-looking guidance likely instilled investor confidence.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AAL Return | -45% | 14% | -29% | 8% | 27% | -18% | -50% |
| Peers Return | -24% | -2% | -13% | 5% | 52% | 6% | 10% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AAL Win Rate | 33% | 50% | 50% | 42% | 50% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 29% | 31% | 38% | 31% | 52% | 38% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AAL Max Drawdown | -68% | -5% | -34% | -14% | -33% | -48% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -50% | -10% | -21% | -12% | -8% | -28% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DAL, UAL, LUV, CAKR, RJET. See AAL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AAL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -57.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 136.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -70.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 237.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -58.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 139.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -97.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 3420.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1480 days |
Compare to DAL, UAL, LUV, CAKR, RJET
In The Past
American Airlines's stock fell -57.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/2/2021. A -57.7% loss requires a 136.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| American Airlines Earnings Notes | |||
| American Airlines Stock Jump Looks Great, But How Secure Is That Gain? | Return | ||
| Why DAL With 8.3% Upside May Beat AAL? | Peer Comparison | ||
| How Does American Airlines Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | Peer Comparison | ||
| AAL Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Time To Buy American Airlines Stock? | Buy or Fear | ||
| American Airlines Total Shareholder Return (TSR): 26.9% in 2024 and -1.0% 3-yr compounded annual returns (below peer average) | |||
| American Airlines (AAL) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| American Airlines (AAL) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| American Airlines (AAL) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Is It Time To Buy American Airlines Stock? | September 17th, 2025 | ||
| AAL Fell 5.6% In A Day. Just a Blip, or the Start? | July 14th, 2025 | ||
| American Airlines: An Unattractive Investment Despite Low Valuation | June 12th, 2025 | ||
| Should You Pick American Airlines Stock At $17? | December 19th, 2024 | ||
| What’s Happening With American Airlines Stock? | September 3rd, 2024 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AAL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| 05312019 | AAL | American Airlines | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.3% | -61.0% | -66.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| 05312019 | AAL | American Airlines | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.3% | -61.0% | -66.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for American Airlines
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 35.68 |
| Mkt Cap | 26.9 |
| Rev LTM | 54,294 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,259 |
| FCF LTM | 882 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 962 |
| CFO LTM | 3,771 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,667 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 26.9 |
| P/S | 0.6 |
| P/EBIT | 5.6 |
| P/E | 10.9 |
| P/CFO | 4.0 |
| Total Yield | 9.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.7% |
| D/E | 0.8 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 14.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 9.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 30.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 9.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 49.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 14.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 7.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 15.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -4.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -17.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10232025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7242025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4242025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10242024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7252024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4252024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2212024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10192023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7202023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2222023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10202022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7212022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4212022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2222022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
