BJ's Restaurants (BJRI)


Market Price (11/10/2026): $57.705 | Market Cap: $1.3 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants

BJ's Restaurants (BJRI)


Market Price (11/10/2026): $57.705
Market Cap: $1.3 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Restaurants

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 41%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Direct-to-Consumer Brands.

Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10%

Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 27x

Key risks
BJRI key risks include [1] persistent challenges in meeting comparable sales targets, Show more.

0 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 41%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Direct-to-Consumer Brands.
2 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10%
3 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 27x
4 Key risks
BJRI key risks include [1] persistent challenges in meeting comparable sales targets, Show more.

BJRI in ETFs

Weight = BJRI's share of each fund

VTI0.00%
ITOT0.00%
IWM0.04%
IJR0.08%
VB0.02%
AVUV0.20%
IJS0.08%
SLYV0.08%
+14 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 11/5/2026

BJ's Restaurants (BJRI) stock has lost about 15% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Investor concerns over Q2 2026 margins and valuation.

Despite BJ's Restaurants reporting higher-than-expected revenue of $388.9 million and a 6.5% increase in comparable sales for fiscal Q2 2026 (which ended July 2, 2026), the stock declined by 5.06% in after-hours trading on July 30, 2026, and a further 8.8% on July 31, 2026. This immediate negative reaction was largely attributed to investor scrutiny over "margin pressures and valuation," indicating that strong top-line performance was overshadowed by concerns regarding the sustainability of profitability and a perceived overvaluation in the market.

2. Broad casual dining sector weakness and consumer selectivity.

Throughout fiscal Q3 2026 (which ended September 29, 2026), the broader casual dining industry faced headwinds, with overall visits rising by only 0.2% year-over-year. A notable factor was the 2.3% decline in visits within lower-income markets (median household incomes below $81,000), suggesting increased consumer caution and trade-downs due to household budget pressures. This challenging macroeconomic environment for full-service restaurants likely contributed to negative sentiment for BJRI, despite the company's individual traffic outperformance within the quarter.

Show more
Updated on 11/5/2026

BJ's Restaurants (BJRI) stock has lost about 15% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Investor concerns over Q2 2026 margins and valuation.

Despite BJ's Restaurants reporting higher-than-expected revenue of $388.9 million and a 6.5% increase in comparable sales for fiscal Q2 2026 (which ended July 2, 2026), the stock declined by 5.06% in after-hours trading on July 30, 2026, and a further 8.8% on July 31, 2026. This immediate negative reaction was largely attributed to investor scrutiny over "margin pressures and valuation," indicating that strong top-line performance was overshadowed by concerns regarding the sustainability of profitability and a perceived overvaluation in the market.

2. Broad casual dining sector weakness and consumer selectivity.

Throughout fiscal Q3 2026 (which ended September 29, 2026), the broader casual dining industry faced headwinds, with overall visits rising by only 0.2% year-over-year. A notable factor was the 2.3% decline in visits within lower-income markets (median household incomes below $81,000), suggesting increased consumer caution and trade-downs due to household budget pressures. This challenging macroeconomic environment for full-service restaurants likely contributed to negative sentiment for BJRI, despite the company's individual traffic outperformance within the quarter.

3. Analyst price target reduction impacting sentiment.

On October 23, 2026, Citigroup lowered its price target for BJ's Restaurants from $75.00 to $70.00, while maintaining a "neutral" rating on the stock. This downward revision from a prominent analyst firm likely contributed to negative investor sentiment and selling pressure during the period following the Q2 earnings and leading up to the Q3 report.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -14.6% change in BJRI stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/9/2026 was primarily driven by a -21.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)731202611092026Change
Stock Price ($)67.6157.71-14.6%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1,4331,4612.0%
Net Income Margin (%)2.9%3.1%9.7%
P/E Multiple34.827.3-21.5%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)2122-2.8%
Cumulative Contribution-14.6%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2026 to 11/9/2026
ReturnCorrelation
BJRI-14.6% 
Market (SPY)0.8%23.9%
Sector (XLY)4.2%38.8%

Fundamental Drivers

The 50.3% change in BJRI stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 64.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)430202611092026Change
Stock Price ($)38.4057.7150.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1,3991,4614.4%
Net Income Margin (%)3.5%3.1%-10.2%
P/E Multiple16.627.364.2%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)2122-2.4%
Cumulative Contribution50.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

4/30/2026 to 11/9/2026
ReturnCorrelation
BJRI50.3% 
Market (SPY)5.0%15.8%
Sector (XLY)2.5%23.6%

Fundamental Drivers

The 69.9% change in BJRI stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 57.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)1031202511092026Change
Stock Price ($)33.9657.7169.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1,3841,4615.6%
Net Income Margin (%)2.0%3.1%57.6%
P/E Multiple27.427.3-0.5%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)22222.7%
Cumulative Contribution69.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2025 to 11/9/2026
ReturnCorrelation
BJRI69.9% 
Market (SPY)11.3%27.0%
Sector (XLY)1.5%33.0%

Fundamental Drivers

The 124.4% change in BJRI stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 137.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)1031202311092026Change
Stock Price ($)25.7257.71124.4%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1,3461,4618.5%
Net Income Margin (%)1.3%3.1%137.9%
P/E Multiple34.127.3-20.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)24228.7%
Cumulative Contribution124.4%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2023 to 11/9/2026
ReturnCorrelation
BJRI124.4% 
Market (SPY)86.2%37.0%
Sector (XLY)62.8%42.5%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
BJRI Return-10%-24%37%-2%12%46%50%
Peers Return5%-6%31%52%-7%55%181%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%8%96%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
BJRI Win Rate50%33%67%50%50%55% 
Peers Win Rate52%38%58%62%43%64% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%36% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
BJRI Max Drawdown-53%-43%-42%-27%-39%-27% 
Peers Max Drawdown-36%-35%-24%-26%-36%-25% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: DRI, TXRH, EAT, CAKE, BLMN. See BJRI Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/9/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventBJRIS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-16.9%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven20.3%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven24 days79 days
2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind
  % Loss-19.1%-7.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven23.7%8.5%
  Time to Breakeven51 days18 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-34.0%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven51.6%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven71 days24 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-13.7%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven15.9%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven11 days31 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-41.7%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven71.6%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven226 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-84.8%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven556.1%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven295 days140 days

Compare to DRI, TXRH, EAT, CAKE, BLMN

In The Past

BJ's Restaurants's stock fell -16.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 20.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventBJRIS&P 500
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-34.0%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven51.6%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven71 days24 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-41.7%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven71.6%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven226 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-84.8%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven556.1%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven295 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-27.1%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven37.2%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven2762 days105 days
2013 Taper Tantrum
  % Loss-23.1%-0.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven30.1%0.2%
  Time to Breakeven129 days1 days
2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis
  % Loss-60.0%-53.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven150.1%114.4%
  Time to Breakeven159 days1085 days

Compare to DRI, TXRH, EAT, CAKE, BLMN

In The Past

BJ's Restaurants's stock fell -16.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 20.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About BJ's Restaurants (BJRI)

BJ's Restaurants, Inc. (BJRI) operates as a prominent casual dining restaurant chain throughout the United States. The company's business model centers on owning and managing its various restaurant locations, providing patrons with a diverse menu in a relaxed, informal dining environment.

The core offerings at BJ's Restaurants include a wide array of food and beverage options designed to cater to varied tastes. These encompass signature pizzas, a comprehensive selection of craft and other beers, various appetizers, substantial entrées, pasta dishes, sandwiches, and fresh specialty salads. The dining experience is complemented by a tempting range of desserts.

BJ's Restaurants primarily serves the broad casual dining market across the United States. Its target customers are individuals and groups seeking quality food and beverages in an approachable setting. As of April 2022, the company had established a significant footprint with 213 restaurants spread across 29 states, highlighting its extensive national reach within the casual dining sector.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are a couple of brief analogies for BJ's Restaurants:

  • A Cheesecake Factory known for pizzas and craft beers.

  • Like a California Pizza Kitchen with its own full-service brewpub.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Pizzas: A variety of baked dough dishes with savory toppings, representing a core menu item.
  • Craft and other beers: A selection of alcoholic beverages, including both specialty craft brews and standard beer options.
  • Appetizers: Small dishes served before the main course to stimulate the appetite.
  • Entrées: The main course meals served at the restaurant.
  • Pastas: Italian-style dishes made from various forms of dough, often served with sauces.
  • Sandwiches: Prepared food items consisting of fillings placed between slices of bread.
  • Specialty salads: Unique and distinct combinations of fresh greens and various toppings.
  • Desserts: Sweet dishes served to conclude a meal.

AI Analysis | Feedback

BJ's Restaurants (BJRI) primarily sells to individual consumers directly through its restaurant operations. Based on its business model as a casual dining restaurant chain, its major customer categories include:

  • Families: Customers seeking a diverse menu with options for various ages and a comfortable, relaxed atmosphere for dining out with children.
  • Social Diners/Groups of Friends: Individuals and groups looking for a casual and inviting environment to gather, socialize, and enjoy meals and beverages, including the company's selection of craft beers.
  • Couples: Diners seeking a casual yet pleasant setting for dates or simply to enjoy a meal out together.

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Lyle D. Tick

Chief Executive Officer and President

Lyle D. Tick was appointed Chief Executive Officer and President of BJ's Restaurants, Inc. effective June 5, 2025. He joined the company in September 2024 as President and Chief Concept Officer. Prior to his tenure at BJ's, Mr. Tick held leadership roles at On the Border Mexican Grill & Cantina, where he served as President and CEO. His experience also includes leadership positions at Buffalo Wild Wings, Walgreens Boots Alliance, and Bacardi. Early in his career, he worked in advertising, collaborating with various food and beverage firms such as AB InBev and Moët Hennessy. Mr. Tick did not have prior experience running a publicly traded company before joining BJ's.

Todd Wilson

Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Todd Wilson was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of BJ's Restaurants, Inc., effective December 15, 2025. He brings nearly two decades of financial leadership experience within the restaurant industry. Most recently, from November 2022, Mr. Wilson served as the CFO of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc., a publicly traded full-service restaurant chain, where he played a key role in improving restaurant-level margins and financial results. From 2018 to 2022, he was the CFO at Hopdoddy, contributing to improved operating margins, doubling the unit count through organic growth and acquisitions, and completing two debt refinancings. Before that, he held progressive financial leadership roles at Bloomin' Brands from 2006 to 2016 and also served as Vice President of Finance for Jamba Juice. Mr. Wilson holds an MBA from the University of South Florida and a bachelor's degree from the University of Florida.

Alex Puchner

Senior Vice President of Brewing Operations

Alex Puchner is the Senior Vice President of Brewing Operations at BJ's Restaurants, Inc. He joined BJ's in 1996 as its first brewmaster when the company built its first brewpub. Prior to BJ's, Mr. Puchner honed his brewing skills as a homebrewer and then as a craft brewer at some of the first brewpubs in Orange County and Los Angeles. He has been a beer judge at prestigious events like the Great American Beer Festival and World Beer Cup for three decades.

Gregory S. Lynds

Executive Vice President and Chief Development Officer

Christopher P. Pinsak

Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer

AI Analysis | Feedback

Key Business Risks for BJ's Restaurants (BJRI)

  1. Macroeconomic Challenges and Consumer Spending: BJ's Restaurants faces significant risks from macroeconomic headwinds, including inflation and fluctuating consumer discretionary spending. The company has noted concerns regarding increased food cost inflation and general consumer uncertainty, which can impact guest traffic and average check sizes. This also includes the potential for a restaurant price war and traffic shifting away from casual dining to grocery or quick-service alternatives.
  2. Intense Competition: The casual dining sector is highly competitive, posing a continuous challenge for BJ's Restaurants. The company operates in an environment where customers have significant power due to low switching costs, making it difficult to maintain and grow market share. Larger rivals may also have more resources to deploy in competitive strategies.
  3. Rising Labor and Commodity Costs & Supply Chain Volatility: BJ's Restaurants is exposed to risks associated with rising labor costs and volatility in commodity prices. The costs of certain key ingredients, such as avocados, ground beef, and bone-in wings, have experienced year-over-year increases. Furthermore, the company's reliance on frequent and consistent deliveries makes it vulnerable to supply chain disruptions caused by weather, natural disasters, labor issues, or other operational interruptions.

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  • The proliferation of ghost kitchens and virtual restaurant brands optimized for delivery, which operate with significantly lower overheads than traditional brick-and-mortar restaurants, creating intense competition in the delivery and takeout segments.
  • Rapid advancements and potential widespread adoption of automation and robotics in kitchen operations, which could drastically reduce labor costs and improve operational efficiency for competing restaurant concepts, putting pressure on traditional casual dining models.

AI Analysis | Feedback

BJ's Restaurants, Inc. operates in the casual dining segment of the restaurant industry, with offerings including pizzas and craft beers. The addressable markets for these main products and services are within the United States.

U.S. Full-Service Restaurants Market (includes Casual Dining)

The U.S. full-service restaurant market, which encompasses casual dining, was valued at approximately US$ 371.9 billion in 2025. This market is projected to reach US$ 715.8 billion by 2032, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.7% from 2025 to 2032. Another estimate valued the U.S. full-service restaurant market at USD 362.15 billion in 2025, with a projection to grow to USD 685.11 billion by 2031 at a CAGR of 11.07% during the forecast period (2026-2031). The sector is also expected to grow from USD 336.22 billion in 2024 to USD 807.83 billion by 2033, at a CAGR of 10.23% from 2025-2033.

U.S. Pizza Market

The United States pizza market reached an estimated USD 39.0 billion in 2025. Looking ahead, the market is expected to reach USD 50.7 billion by 2034, demonstrating a CAGR of 2.95% during the period of 2026-2034. In 2024, the United States pizza restaurant market was projected to reach $50.1 billion in revenue.

U.S. Craft Beer Market

The United States craft beer market size was approximately USD 31.3 billion in 2025. Projections indicate this market is expected to reach USD 42.4 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 3.43% from 2026 to 2034. In 2024, retail dollar sales of craft beer in the U.S. increased by 3% to $28.8 billion, representing 24.7% of the total U.S. beer market.

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BJ's Restaurants (NASDAQ: BJRI) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through a combination of strategic initiatives focused on expansion, menu innovation, customer engagement, and operational improvements.

Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth:

  1. New Restaurant Expansion and Prototype Development: BJ's Restaurants plans to reignite net unit growth, with management indicating plans to pilot up to two new restaurant openings in late 2026 featuring a refreshed prototype for future expansion. This measured ramp-up in new unit development is expected to contribute to long-term growth. Contributions from new restaurant openings were already a driver of revenue growth in fiscal 2025.
  2. Menu Innovation and Product Launches: The company is focused on menu renovation, including a renovated pizza platform that has already shown increased "pizza incidents." The Pizookie platform, including the Pizookie Meal Deal and seasonally relevant Pizookies, is a key product offering that has driven traffic and is expected to continue contributing to sales. Successful limited-time offerings (LTOs) are also part of this strategy.
  3. Enhanced Guest Traffic through Marketing and Value Offerings: BJ's Restaurants is emphasizing social and influencer-driven marketing to boost brand awareness and attract customers, particularly a younger demographic. Initiatives like the Pizookie Meal Deal and late-night occasions are highlighted as key drivers for increasing guest frequency and delivering value, which in turn leads to higher traffic. The company's Daily Brewhouse Specials have also resonated with value-seeking guests.
  4. Growth in High-Margin Channels: Scaling high-margin channels such as catering and optimizing the digital experience are considered primary engines for future profitable growth. This includes enhancing app and web ordering to improve conversion rates and average check sizes, and leveraging off-premise sales.
  5. Operational Efficiencies to Support Competitive Positioning: Ongoing margin improvement initiatives and operational enhancements are expected to yield further benefits. These efficiencies, including improvements in cost of sales, activity-based labor management, and supply chain initiatives, enable the company to maintain competitive pricing and value propositions, thereby supporting sustained traffic and sales growth.

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Share Repurchases

  • BJ's Restaurants repurchased approximately 2.0 million shares for roughly $67.8 million in fiscal 2025.
  • During the fourth quarter of 2025, the company repurchased and retired approximately 167,000 shares of common stock at a cost of about $5.4 million.
  • As of February 25, 2026, approximately $93.2 million remained available under the company's authorized share repurchase program, and management anticipates repurchasing up to $50 million in 2026.

Share Issuance

  • Through two capital raising transactions in May 2020 and January 2021, BJ's Restaurants raised a total of approximately $100 million.
  • This included a $70 million private placement of common stock in May 2020 and a $30 million sale of common stock through an "at-the-market" offering.

Capital Expenditures

  • Capital expenditures were anticipated to be between $65 million and $75 million for fiscal year 2025.
  • For fiscal 2026, planned capital expenditures are projected to be between $85 million and $95 million.
  • The primary focus of these capital expenditures includes new restaurant development, restaurant remodels (with 19 completed in 2025), and investments in social media and marketing.

Better Bets vs. BJ's Restaurants (BJRI)

Peer Outperformance in Restaurants

BJRI has outperformed 74% of its 35 Restaurants peers over 5Y. Among the peers that beat it is CAKE. Restaurants ranks 8th of 22 industries in Consumer Discretionary by median 5Y return.
Share of Restaurants constituents that BJRI has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
84%
of 43 industry peers · 65.0% return
3Y
88%
of 41 industry peers · 113.7% return
5Y
74%
of 35 industry peers · 56.4% return
Restaurants peers with revenue growth within 4pp of BJRI's that beat it on at least 2 of 3 windows, and by at least 20pp over 5Y. Growth is matched by construction, so the gap is largely a re-rating gap. The multiple column is the context for it.
Ticker Name Rev Growth 3Y Avg P/E 1Y3Y5Y 5Y Gap
BJRI BJ's Restaurants 2.6% 27.3x 65.0%113.7%56.4% —
CAKE Cheesecake Factory 5.1% 24.9x 137.5%285.7%174.1% +118pp
Price returns, excluding dividends. P/E shown for context only and not used for matching.
Median price return by industry across the Consumer Discretionary sector, ranked by 5Y. Restaurants is BJRI's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
Industry Names 1Y med3Y med5Y med Top 3 by 5Y
Education Services 14 -14.8%35.2%48.5% CVSA 240% · GHC 115% · LRN 112%
Homebuilding 17 5.9%30.8%30.1% PHM 174% · TOL 158% · GRBK 156%
Automotive Retail 17 -3.6%15.6%14.9% MUSA 192% · PAG 116% · ORLY 109%
Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines 21 20.0%70.0%14.9% RCL 282% · MAR 164% · HLT 155%
Home Improvement Retail 5 -2.1%8.9%5.6% LOW 10% · HD 8% · FND -60%
Home Furnishings 3 6.8%82.0%1.7% SGI 57% · MHK -10%
Footwear 9 83.4%101.1%-10.2% DECK 28% · SHOO -5% · CROX -10%
Restaurants ← 36 4.9%-1.1%-17.9% EAT 357% · CAKE 174% · TXRH 121%
Specialized Consumer Services 10 -11.0%32.7%-22.0% FTDR 186% · HRB 142% · SCI 20%
Distributors 4 -3.9%-14.3%-23.7% ARMK 108% · GPC 8% · POOL -55%
Computer & Electronics Retail 3 41.6%91.8%-24.9% BBY 1% · GME -50%
Leisure Products 14 -16.8%-2.4%-32.7% GOLF 61% · HAS 50% · BC -10%
Leisure Facilities 12 22.0%9.1%-35.1% OSW 172% · LTH 142% · PLNT -35%
Household Appliances 18 41.6%20.6%-38.2% WHR -82%
Broadline Retail 12 1.8%37.9%-43.8% EBAY 79% · AMZN 49% · OLLI 35%
Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods 29 18.9%25.2%-46.3% TPR 264% · RL 240% · KTB 63%
Apparel Retail 27 -2.8%12.8%-47.5% ANF 232% · VSXY 125% · TJX 112%
Casinos & Gaming 21 -27.7%-16.1%-51.8% RRR 29% · BYD 28% · LVS 5%
Automotive Parts & Equipment 37 -11.0%-16.5%-52.4% GTX 197% · PATK 76% · ALV 39%
Other Specialty Retail 25 -0.8%-6.1%-56.0% ULTA 68% · ASO 57% · ARHS 33%
Consumer Electronics 11 -25.8%-17.1%-79.5% GRMN 123% · SONO -51%
Automobile Manufacturers 9 -60.6%-42.4%-86.1% GM 60% · TSLA 11% · F -16%
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are limited to companies above $2B market cap.

Latest Trefis Analyses

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Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

BJRIDRITXRHEATCAKEBLMNMedian
NameBJ's Res.Darden R.Texas Ro.Brinker .Cheeseca.Bloomin . 
Mkt Price57.70229.82190.51203.50110.8110.28150.66
Mkt Cap1.226.112.58.65.20.96.9
Rev LTM1,46113,3666,3685,9344,0033,9954,969
Op Inc LTM521,627499663299149399
FCF LTM621,022397601218121308
FCF 3Y Avg451,02735942914889254
CFO LTM1341,782806838389292597
CFO 3Y Avg1201,722748667317279492

Growth & Margins

BJRIDRITXRHEATCAKEBLMNMedian
NameBJ's Res.Darden R.Texas Ro.Brinker .Cheeseca.Bloomin . 
Rev Chg LTM5.3%8.1%9.2%6.1%7.9%1.1%7.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg2.6%7.5%12.5%12.5%5.1%-1.0%6.3%
Rev Chg Q8.6%5.1%9.5%9.4%13.9%1.7%9.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.0%1.2%2.2%2.2%3.3%0.4%2.1%
Op Inc Chg LTM10.7%11.1%-4.7%9.2%19.8%10.8%10.8%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg30.0%9.7%14.2%48.3%24.4%-20.4%19.3%
Op Mgn LTM3.5%12.2%7.8%11.2%7.5%3.7%7.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg3.0%12.0%8.7%9.6%6.7%4.2%7.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.5%0.0%-0.0%0.4%0.5%0.5%0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM9.2%13.3%12.7%14.1%9.7%7.3%11.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg8.6%13.9%13.0%12.2%8.4%7.2%10.4%
FCF/Rev LTM4.3%7.6%6.2%10.1%5.5%3.0%5.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg3.2%8.3%6.2%7.8%3.9%2.3%5.1%

Valuation

BJRIDRITXRHEATCAKEBLMNMedian
NameBJ's Res.Darden R.Texas Ro.Brinker .Cheeseca.Bloomin . 
Mkt Cap1.226.112.58.65.20.96.9
P/S0.92.02.01.41.30.21.4
P/Op Inc24.216.025.012.917.35.916.7
P/EBIT26.616.325.013.121.38.618.8
P/E27.322.129.817.124.912.323.5
P/CFO9.314.615.510.213.33.011.8
Total Yield3.7%7.2%4.9%5.8%5.1%8.1%5.5%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.7%1.5%0.0%1.1%0.0%0.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg5.2%4.9%3.3%7.3%4.7%12.6%5.0%
D/E0.30.30.10.20.42.20.3
Net D/E0.30.20.10.20.42.10.3

Returns

BJRIDRITXRHEATCAKEBLMNMedian
NameBJ's Res.Darden R.Texas Ro.Brinker .Cheeseca.Bloomin . 
1M Rtn-3.6%16.3%18.0%5.0%2.2%19.5%10.6%
3M Rtn-15.9%6.3%-7.8%-10.6%-0.1%-6.8%-7.3%
6M Rtn37.0%19.3%4.6%45.8%82.5%22.8%29.9%
12M Rtn65.0%33.2%17.4%98.3%137.8%53.9%59.5%
3Y Rtn113.6%68.6%91.7%499.4%286.2%-49.2%102.7%
1M Excs Rtn1.9%21.8%23.5%10.5%7.7%25.0%16.2%
3M Excs Rtn-10.0%10.4%-4.3%-3.5%2.6%-3.1%-3.3%
6M Excs Rtn37.5%19.8%5.1%46.2%83.0%23.2%30.4%
12M Excs Rtn56.6%23.8%10.7%89.2%130.6%50.8%53.7%
3Y Excs Rtn42.5%1.4%24.2%430.5%221.8%-121.9%33.3%

Comparison Analyses

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Full-service company-owned restaurants1,3991,3571,3331,2841,087
Total1,3991,3571,3331,2841,087


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil202520242023
Full-service company-owned restaurants461414
Total461414


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil202520242023
Full-service company-owned restaurants491720
Total491720


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20252024
Full-service company-owned restaurants1,0151,041
Total1,0151,041


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$57.71 
Market Cap ($ Bil)1.2 
First Trading Date10/10/1996 
Distance from 52W High-22.3% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$60.04$51.29
DMA Trenddownup
Distance from DMA-3.9%12.5%
 3M1YR
Volatility41.6%40.8%
Downside Capture61.0341.28
Upside Capture-39.2892.57
Correlation (S&P 500)20.5%26.3%
BJRI Betas & Captures as of 10/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta0.610.460.200.260.771.02
Up Beta-1.91-0.03-0.700.890.761.13
Down Beta0.060.020.45-0.300.320.88
Up Capture188%62%14%85%157%121%
Bmk +ve Days12182862130427
Stock +ve Days11192869135387
Down Capture31%70%65%-58%56%99%
Bmk -ve Days10253664121325
Stock -ve Days11243657115362

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with BJRI
BJRI66.7%40.8%1.34-
Sector ETF (XLY)3.4%19.9%0.0432.5%
Equity (SPY)13.3%13.7%0.6526.9%
Gold (GLD)3.7%28.8%0.1210.8%
Commodities (DBC)38.2%21.3%1.42-22.0%
Real Estate (VNQ)13.7%14.3%0.6525.8%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-25.3%43.6%-0.5510.8%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with BJRI
BJRI10.9%46.5%0.37-
Sector ETF (XLY)4.2%24.2%0.1349.1%
Equity (SPY)11.8%17.3%0.5143.3%
Gold (GLD)17.8%19.1%0.755.0%
Commodities (DBC)8.0%19.6%0.291.7%
Real Estate (VNQ)1.5%18.9%-0.0338.8%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)4.4%51.6%0.2722.1%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with BJRI
BJRI5.1%54.2%0.31-
Sector ETF (XLY)13.1%22.3%0.5349.4%
Equity (SPY)15.3%18.0%0.7246.5%
Gold (GLD)12.1%16.5%0.603.0%
Commodities (DBC)7.6%18.1%0.3315.2%
Real Estate (VNQ)6.1%20.7%0.2545.9%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)60.0%66.3%1.0014.7%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10152026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2.2 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 93020261.4%
Average Daily Volume0.5 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.6 days
Basic Shares Quantity21.6 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares10.1%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 11/10/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/5/2026-4.8%  
7/30/2026-9.0%-5.9%-12.3%
5/5/20264.6%8.2%12.1%
2/25/2026-2.1%-14.0%-9.8%
10/30/202518.4%20.9%29.3%
7/31/2025-3.6%-3.6%-5.3%
5/1/202513.2%15.9%35.9%
2/20/20256.5%4.7%-4.7%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131111
# Negative111212
Median Positive5.9%8.7%14.9%
Median Negative-3.7%-3.7%-11.2%
Max Positive18.4%20.9%35.9%
Max Negative-15.4%-17.3%-22.3%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/5/2026-4.8%  
7/30/2026-9.0%-5.9%-12.3%
5/5/20264.6%8.2%12.1%
2/25/2026-2.1%-14.0%-9.8%
10/30/202518.4%20.9%29.3%
7/31/2025-3.6%-3.6%-5.3%
5/1/202513.2%15.9%35.9%
2/20/20256.5%4.7%-4.7%
10/31/2024-8.4%-3.7%0.6%
7/25/2024-15.4%-17.3%-12.2%
5/2/20245.9%3.9%7.3%
2/15/20242.8%-3.7%-0.6%
10/26/20238.7%14.8%28.7%
7/27/20239.4%8.7%-11.1%
4/27/202312.6%8.7%7.2%
2/16/2023-2.7%-2.8%-14.6%
10/20/20224.5%12.4%19.8%
7/21/2022-1.4%1.6%14.9%
4/21/2022-0.4%-2.3%-22.3%
2/17/20224.3%-1.7%-17.8%
10/21/20212.3%-5.6%-7.6%
7/29/2021-3.7%-7.5%4.9%
4/22/2021-5.7%2.6%-11.3%
2/11/20210.3%-1.4%16.8%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131111
# Negative111212
Median Positive5.9%8.7%14.9%
Median Negative-3.7%-3.7%-11.2%
Max Positive18.4%20.9%35.9%
Max Negative-15.4%-17.3%-22.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
09/30/202611/06/202610-Q
06/30/202607/31/202610-Q
03/31/202605/06/202610-Q
12/31/202503/02/202610-K
09/30/202511/05/202510-Q
06/30/202508/08/202510-Q
03/31/202505/05/202510-Q
12/31/202402/26/202510-K
09/30/202411/04/202410-Q
06/30/202408/05/202410-Q
03/31/202405/06/202410-Q
12/31/202302/27/202410-K
09/30/202311/06/202310-Q
06/30/202308/07/202310-Q
03/31/202305/08/202310-Q
12/31/202202/28/202310-K
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
09/30/202611/06/202610-Q
06/30/202607/31/202610-Q
03/31/202605/06/202610-Q
12/31/202503/02/202610-K
09/30/202511/05/202510-Q
06/30/202508/08/202510-Q
03/31/202505/05/202510-Q
12/31/202402/26/202510-K
09/30/202411/04/202410-Q
06/30/202408/05/202410-Q
03/31/202405/06/202410-Q
12/31/202302/27/202410-K
09/30/202311/06/202310-Q
06/30/202308/07/202310-Q
03/31/202305/08/202310-Q
12/31/202202/28/202310-K
09/30/202210/31/202210-Q
06/30/202208/01/202210-Q
03/31/202205/02/202210-Q
12/31/202102/25/202210-K
09/30/202111/01/202110-Q
06/30/202108/02/202110-Q
03/31/202105/04/202110-Q
12/31/202003/01/202110-K
09/30/202011/02/202010-Q
06/30/202008/03/202010-Q
03/31/202005/11/202010-Q
12/31/201902/25/202010-K

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 11/6/2026

Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 11/5/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Comparable Restaurant SalesReported 0.05  1.2%RaisedGuidance: 0.04 for 2026
2026 Restaurant Level Operating ProfitReported233.00 Mil235.00 Mil237.00 Mil1.5% RaisedGuidance: 231.50 Mil for 2026
2026 Adjusted EBITDAReported149.00 Mil151.50 Mil154.00 Mil2.0% RaisedGuidance: 148.50 Mil for 2026
2026 Capital ExpendituresReported 80.00 Mil -11.1% LoweredGuidance: 90.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Share RepurchasesReported 50.00 Mil50.00 Mil0.0% AffirmedGuidance: 50.00 Mil for 2026


Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/30/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Comparable Restaurant SalesReported0.030.040.04 1.5%RaisedGuidance: 0.02 for 2026
2026 Restaurant Level Operating ProfitReported228.00 Mil231.50 Mil235.00 Mil2.0% RaisedGuidance: 227.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Adjusted EBITDAReported145.00 Mil148.50 Mil152.00 Mil2.4% RaisedGuidance: 145.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Capital ExpendituresReported85.00 Mil90.00 Mil95.00 Mil0 AffirmedGuidance: 90.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Share RepurchasesReported 50.00 Mil 0 AffirmedGuidance: 50.00 Mil for 2026

Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/5/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Comparable restaurant sales growthReported1.0%2.0%3.0% 0.0%AffirmedGuidance: 2.0% for 2026
2026 Restaurant level operating profitReported221.00 Mil227.00 Mil233.00 Mil0.0% AffirmedGuidance: 227.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Adjusted EBITDAReported140.00 Mil145.00 Mil150.00 Mil0.0% AffirmedGuidance: 145.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Capital expendituresReported85.00 Mil90.00 Mil95.00 Mil0.0% AffirmedGuidance: 90.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Share repurchasesReported 50.00 Mil 0.0% AffirmedGuidance: 50.00 Mil for 2026

Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/25/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Comparable restaurant sales growthReported1.0%2.0%3.0% 0.0%Same NewGuidance: 2.0% for 2025
2026 Restaurant level operating profitReported221.00 Mil227.00 Mil233.00 Mil5.6% Higher NewGuidance: 215.00 Mil for 2025
2026 Adjusted EBITDAReported140.00 Mil145.00 Mil150.00 Mil6.6% Higher NewGuidance: 136.00 Mil for 2025
2026 Capital expendituresReported85.00 Mil90.00 Mil95.00 Mil28.6% Higher NewGuidance: 70.00 Mil for 2025
2026 Share repurchasesReported 50.00 Mil -31.0% Lower NewGuidance: 72.50 Mil for 2025

Insider Activity

Updated 10/16/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Richmond, C Bradford TrustBuy902202661.0550030,5252,197,800Form
2Richmond, C Bradford TrustBuy831202663.2575347,6272,245,375Form
3Elbogen, Noah A DirectSell812202670.147,535528,5055,025,882Form
4Miller, Kendra DEVP & General CounselDirectSell807202669.802,978207,8641,788,346Form
5Miller, Kendra DEVP & General CounselDirectSell807202669.3110,217708,1401,982,197Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Richmond, C Bradford TrustBuy902202661.0550030,5252,197,800Form
2Richmond, C Bradford TrustBuy831202663.2575347,6272,245,375Form
3Elbogen, Noah A DirectSell812202670.147,535528,5055,025,882Form
4Miller, Kendra DEVP & General CounselDirectSell807202669.802,978207,8641,788,346Form
5Miller, Kendra DEVP & General CounselDirectSell807202669.3110,217708,1401,982,197Form
6Lynds, Gregory SEVP & Chief Dev. OfficerDirectSell807202668.8121,7041,493,4521,704,424Form
7Lynds, Gregory SEVP & Chief Dev. OfficerDirectSell805202667.4725,3501,710,3643,135,601Form
8Lynds, Gregory SEVP & Chief Dev. OfficerDirectSell623202655.866,201346,3882,596,038Form
9Elbogen, Noah A DirectSell623202654.004,652251,2084,116,690Form
10Ottinger, Lea Anne DirectSell623202653.502,792149,3722,124,004Form
11Rogers, HeidiSVP & Chief Marketing OfficerDirectSell615202653.213,090164,419492,991Form
12Lynds, Gregory SEVP & Chief Dev. OfficerDirectSell612202650.765,537281,0582,359,020Form
13Miller, Kendra DEVP & General CounselDirectSell611202655.6019,2611,070,9121,590,104Form
14Miller, Kendra DEVP & General CounselDirectSell611202648.567,419360,2671,388,767Form
15Krakower, Brian SEVP & Chief Info. OfficerDirectSell601202655.177,341405,003260,458Form
16Elbogen, Noah A DirectSell601202647.854,049193,7453,647,845Form
17Krakower, Brian SEVP & Chief Info. OfficerDirectSell601202646.713,475162,327220,531Form
18Krakower, Brian SEVP & Chief Info. OfficerDirectSell318202635.032,60091,078177,322Form
19Richmond, C Bradford TrustBuy306202634.051,00034,050636,735Form
20Richmond, C Bradford TrustBuy305202635.101,20042,122586,198Form
21Krakower, Brian SEVP & Chief Info. OfficerDirectSell1215202539.618,017317,570174,650Form
Core Cache Last Updated: 11/9/2026