BJ's Restaurants (BJRI)
Market Price (8/10/2026): $69.51 | Market Cap: $1.5 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
BJ's Restaurants (BJRI)
Market Price (8/10/2026): $69.51Market Cap: $1.5 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 44% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Direct-to-Consumer Brands. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 35x Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 107% Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 94% Key risksBJRI key risks include [1] persistent challenges in meeting comparable sales targets, Show more. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 44% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Direct-to-Consumer Brands. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 35x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 107% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 94% |
| Key risksBJRI key risks include [1] persistent challenges in meeting comparable sales targets, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
BJ's Restaurants (BJRI) stock has gained about 80% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. BJ's Restaurants exceeded fiscal Q2 2026 earnings and revenue estimates. The company reported total revenues of $388.9 million for the thirteen weeks ended June 30, 2026, marking a 6.4% increase year-over-year and surpassing analyst estimates of approximately $377.1 million. Additionally, adjusted earnings per share (EPS) reached $0.94, exceeding the consensus estimate of $0.90 to $0.91.
2. The company demonstrated robust comparable restaurant sales and guest traffic growth in fiscal Q2 2026. Comparable restaurant sales increased by 6.5%, driven by an impressive 8.3% rise in guest traffic for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. This performance marked the eighth consecutive quarter of sales and traffic growth, significantly outperforming casual dining industry benchmarks.
Show more
BJ's Restaurants (BJRI) stock has gained about 80% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. BJ's Restaurants exceeded fiscal Q2 2026 earnings and revenue estimates. The company reported total revenues of $388.9 million for the thirteen weeks ended June 30, 2026, marking a 6.4% increase year-over-year and surpassing analyst estimates of approximately $377.1 million. Additionally, adjusted earnings per share (EPS) reached $0.94, exceeding the consensus estimate of $0.90 to $0.91.
2. The company demonstrated robust comparable restaurant sales and guest traffic growth in fiscal Q2 2026. Comparable restaurant sales increased by 6.5%, driven by an impressive 8.3% rise in guest traffic for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. This performance marked the eighth consecutive quarter of sales and traffic growth, significantly outperforming casual dining industry benchmarks.
3. Management raised its full-year fiscal 2026 financial guidance. Following the strong performance in fiscal Q2 2026, BJ's Restaurants increased its full-year comparable restaurant sales growth outlook to a range of 3% to 4%, up from the prior estimate of 1% to 3%. Furthermore, the company raised its guidance for full-year restaurant-level operating profit to $228-$235 million and Adjusted EBITDA to $145-$152 million.
4. Improved operational execution and strategic initiatives contributed to margin expansion. Despite facing a 120-basis-point headwind from approximately 5% commodity inflation, particularly a 20% increase in beef costs, BJ's Restaurants expanded its restaurant-level operating profit margin by 20 basis points to 17.2% in fiscal Q2 2026. This was attributed to disciplined operational execution, successful menu innovations such as seasonal Pizookies, and effective marketing strategies.
5. Several analysts upgraded their ratings and raised price targets for BJRI. Post-earnings announcements, multiple research firms issued positive revisions. For example, on July 31, 2026, Benchmark raised its price target for BJ's Restaurants from $68.00 to $80.00 and reiterated a "buy" rating. Additionally, Zacks Research upgraded the stock from a "hold" to a "strong buy" rating on August 5, 2026.
Show less
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 81.1% change in BJRI stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 115.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 8092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 38.40 | 69.55 | 81.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,399 | 1,433 | 2.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.5% | 2.9% | -18.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.6 | 35.8 | 115.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 21 | 21 | 0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 81.1% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 8/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BJRI | 81.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.6% | 3.2% |
| Sector (XLY) | 1.3% | 11.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 66.3% change in BJRI stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 28.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 8092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 41.82 | 69.55 | 66.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,388 | 1,433 | 3.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.2% | 2.9% | 28.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 29.6 | 35.8 | 20.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 22 | 21 | 4.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 66.3% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 8/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BJRI | 66.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.1% | 25.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | -0.9% | 28.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 96.3% change in BJRI stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 74.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 8092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 35.43 | 69.55 | 96.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,368 | 1,433 | 4.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.6% | 2.9% | 74.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 35.8 | 35.8 | -0.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 23 | 21 | 7.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 96.3% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 8/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BJRI | 96.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 23.4% | 27.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | 8.9% | 36.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 84.7% change in BJRI stock from 7/31/2023 to 8/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 521.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 7312023 | 8092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 37.66 | 69.55 | 84.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,326 | 1,433 | 8.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.5% | 2.9% | 521.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 145.0 | 35.8 | -75.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 23 | 21 | 11.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 84.7% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 8/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BJRI | 84.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.9% | 37.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | 41.1% | 42.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BJRI Return | -10% | -24% | 37% | -2% | 12% | 77% | 82% |
| Peers Return | 5% | -6% | 31% | 52% | -7% | 59% | 188% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BJRI Win Rate | 50% | 33% | 67% | 50% | 50% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 38% | 58% | 62% | 43% | 72% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BJRI Max Drawdown | -53% | -43% | -42% | -27% | -39% | -27% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -36% | -35% | -24% | -26% | -36% | -22% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: DRI, TXRH, EAT, CAKE, BLMN. See BJRI Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/7/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BJRI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -16.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 24 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -19.1% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 23.7% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 51 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.0% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.6% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 71 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -13.7% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.9% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 11 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -41.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 226 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -84.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 556.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 295 days | 140 days |
In The Past
BJ's Restaurants's stock fell -16.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 20.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | BJRI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.0% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.6% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 71 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -41.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 226 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -84.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 556.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 295 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -27.1% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2762 days | 105 days |
| 2013 Taper Tantrum | ||
| % Loss | -23.1% | -0.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.1% | 0.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 129 days | 1 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.0% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 150.1% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 159 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
BJ's Restaurants's stock fell -16.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 20.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About BJ's Restaurants (BJRI)
BJ's Restaurants, Inc. (BJRI) operates as a prominent casual dining restaurant chain throughout the United States. The company's business model centers on owning and managing its various restaurant locations, providing patrons with a diverse menu in a relaxed, informal dining environment.
The core offerings at BJ's Restaurants include a wide array of food and beverage options designed to cater to varied tastes. These encompass signature pizzas, a comprehensive selection of craft and other beers, various appetizers, substantial entrées, pasta dishes, sandwiches, and fresh specialty salads. The dining experience is complemented by a tempting range of desserts.
BJ's Restaurants primarily serves the broad casual dining market across the United States. Its target customers are individuals and groups seeking quality food and beverages in an approachable setting. As of April 2022, the company had established a significant footprint with 213 restaurants spread across 29 states, highlighting its extensive national reach within the casual dining sector.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are a couple of brief analogies for BJ's Restaurants:
A Cheesecake Factory known for pizzas and craft beers.
Like a California Pizza Kitchen with its own full-service brewpub.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Pizzas: A variety of baked dough dishes with savory toppings, representing a core menu item.
- Craft and other beers: A selection of alcoholic beverages, including both specialty craft brews and standard beer options.
- Appetizers: Small dishes served before the main course to stimulate the appetite.
- Entrées: The main course meals served at the restaurant.
- Pastas: Italian-style dishes made from various forms of dough, often served with sauces.
- Sandwiches: Prepared food items consisting of fillings placed between slices of bread.
- Specialty salads: Unique and distinct combinations of fresh greens and various toppings.
- Desserts: Sweet dishes served to conclude a meal.
AI Analysis | Feedback
BJ's Restaurants (BJRI) primarily sells to individual consumers directly through its restaurant operations. Based on its business model as a casual dining restaurant chain, its major customer categories include:
- Families: Customers seeking a diverse menu with options for various ages and a comfortable, relaxed atmosphere for dining out with children.
- Social Diners/Groups of Friends: Individuals and groups looking for a casual and inviting environment to gather, socialize, and enjoy meals and beverages, including the company's selection of craft beers.
- Couples: Diners seeking a casual yet pleasant setting for dates or simply to enjoy a meal out together.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
Lyle D. Tick
Chief Executive Officer and President
Lyle D. Tick was appointed Chief Executive Officer and President of BJ's Restaurants, Inc. effective June 5, 2025. He joined the company in September 2024 as President and Chief Concept Officer. Prior to his tenure at BJ's, Mr. Tick held leadership roles at On the Border Mexican Grill & Cantina, where he served as President and CEO. His experience also includes leadership positions at Buffalo Wild Wings, Walgreens Boots Alliance, and Bacardi. Early in his career, he worked in advertising, collaborating with various food and beverage firms such as AB InBev and Moët Hennessy. Mr. Tick did not have prior experience running a publicly traded company before joining BJ's.
Todd Wilson
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Todd Wilson was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of BJ's Restaurants, Inc., effective December 15, 2025. He brings nearly two decades of financial leadership experience within the restaurant industry. Most recently, from November 2022, Mr. Wilson served as the CFO of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc., a publicly traded full-service restaurant chain, where he played a key role in improving restaurant-level margins and financial results. From 2018 to 2022, he was the CFO at Hopdoddy, contributing to improved operating margins, doubling the unit count through organic growth and acquisitions, and completing two debt refinancings. Before that, he held progressive financial leadership roles at Bloomin' Brands from 2006 to 2016 and also served as Vice President of Finance for Jamba Juice. Mr. Wilson holds an MBA from the University of South Florida and a bachelor's degree from the University of Florida.
Alex Puchner
Senior Vice President of Brewing Operations
Alex Puchner is the Senior Vice President of Brewing Operations at BJ's Restaurants, Inc. He joined BJ's in 1996 as its first brewmaster when the company built its first brewpub. Prior to BJ's, Mr. Puchner honed his brewing skills as a homebrewer and then as a craft brewer at some of the first brewpubs in Orange County and Los Angeles. He has been a beer judge at prestigious events like the Great American Beer Festival and World Beer Cup for three decades.
Gregory S. Lynds
Executive Vice President and Chief Development Officer
Christopher P. Pinsak
Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer
AI Analysis | Feedback
Key Business Risks for BJ's Restaurants (BJRI)
- Macroeconomic Challenges and Consumer Spending: BJ's Restaurants faces significant risks from macroeconomic headwinds, including inflation and fluctuating consumer discretionary spending. The company has noted concerns regarding increased food cost inflation and general consumer uncertainty, which can impact guest traffic and average check sizes. This also includes the potential for a restaurant price war and traffic shifting away from casual dining to grocery or quick-service alternatives.
- Intense Competition: The casual dining sector is highly competitive, posing a continuous challenge for BJ's Restaurants. The company operates in an environment where customers have significant power due to low switching costs, making it difficult to maintain and grow market share. Larger rivals may also have more resources to deploy in competitive strategies.
- Rising Labor and Commodity Costs & Supply Chain Volatility: BJ's Restaurants is exposed to risks associated with rising labor costs and volatility in commodity prices. The costs of certain key ingredients, such as avocados, ground beef, and bone-in wings, have experienced year-over-year increases. Furthermore, the company's reliance on frequent and consistent deliveries makes it vulnerable to supply chain disruptions caused by weather, natural disasters, labor issues, or other operational interruptions.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- The proliferation of ghost kitchens and virtual restaurant brands optimized for delivery, which operate with significantly lower overheads than traditional brick-and-mortar restaurants, creating intense competition in the delivery and takeout segments.
- Rapid advancements and potential widespread adoption of automation and robotics in kitchen operations, which could drastically reduce labor costs and improve operational efficiency for competing restaurant concepts, putting pressure on traditional casual dining models.
AI Analysis | Feedback
BJ's Restaurants, Inc. operates in the casual dining segment of the restaurant industry, with offerings including pizzas and craft beers. The addressable markets for these main products and services are within the United States.
U.S. Full-Service Restaurants Market (includes Casual Dining)
The U.S. full-service restaurant market, which encompasses casual dining, was valued at approximately US$ 371.9 billion in 2025. This market is projected to reach US$ 715.8 billion by 2032, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.7% from 2025 to 2032. Another estimate valued the U.S. full-service restaurant market at USD 362.15 billion in 2025, with a projection to grow to USD 685.11 billion by 2031 at a CAGR of 11.07% during the forecast period (2026-2031). The sector is also expected to grow from USD 336.22 billion in 2024 to USD 807.83 billion by 2033, at a CAGR of 10.23% from 2025-2033.
U.S. Pizza Market
The United States pizza market reached an estimated USD 39.0 billion in 2025. Looking ahead, the market is expected to reach USD 50.7 billion by 2034, demonstrating a CAGR of 2.95% during the period of 2026-2034. In 2024, the United States pizza restaurant market was projected to reach $50.1 billion in revenue.
U.S. Craft Beer Market
The United States craft beer market size was approximately USD 31.3 billion in 2025. Projections indicate this market is expected to reach USD 42.4 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 3.43% from 2026 to 2034. In 2024, retail dollar sales of craft beer in the U.S. increased by 3% to $28.8 billion, representing 24.7% of the total U.S. beer market.
AI Analysis | Feedback
BJ's Restaurants (NASDAQ: BJRI) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through a combination of strategic initiatives focused on expansion, menu innovation, customer engagement, and operational improvements.
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth:
- New Restaurant Expansion and Prototype Development: BJ's Restaurants plans to reignite net unit growth, with management indicating plans to pilot up to two new restaurant openings in late 2026 featuring a refreshed prototype for future expansion. This measured ramp-up in new unit development is expected to contribute to long-term growth. Contributions from new restaurant openings were already a driver of revenue growth in fiscal 2025.
- Menu Innovation and Product Launches: The company is focused on menu renovation, including a renovated pizza platform that has already shown increased "pizza incidents." The Pizookie platform, including the Pizookie Meal Deal and seasonally relevant Pizookies, is a key product offering that has driven traffic and is expected to continue contributing to sales. Successful limited-time offerings (LTOs) are also part of this strategy.
- Enhanced Guest Traffic through Marketing and Value Offerings: BJ's Restaurants is emphasizing social and influencer-driven marketing to boost brand awareness and attract customers, particularly a younger demographic. Initiatives like the Pizookie Meal Deal and late-night occasions are highlighted as key drivers for increasing guest frequency and delivering value, which in turn leads to higher traffic. The company's Daily Brewhouse Specials have also resonated with value-seeking guests.
- Growth in High-Margin Channels: Scaling high-margin channels such as catering and optimizing the digital experience are considered primary engines for future profitable growth. This includes enhancing app and web ordering to improve conversion rates and average check sizes, and leveraging off-premise sales.
- Operational Efficiencies to Support Competitive Positioning: Ongoing margin improvement initiatives and operational enhancements are expected to yield further benefits. These efficiencies, including improvements in cost of sales, activity-based labor management, and supply chain initiatives, enable the company to maintain competitive pricing and value propositions, thereby supporting sustained traffic and sales growth.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- BJ's Restaurants repurchased approximately 2.0 million shares for roughly $67.8 million in fiscal 2025.
- During the fourth quarter of 2025, the company repurchased and retired approximately 167,000 shares of common stock at a cost of about $5.4 million.
- As of February 25, 2026, approximately $93.2 million remained available under the company's authorized share repurchase program, and management anticipates repurchasing up to $50 million in 2026.
Share Issuance
- Through two capital raising transactions in May 2020 and January 2021, BJ's Restaurants raised a total of approximately $100 million.
- This included a $70 million private placement of common stock in May 2020 and a $30 million sale of common stock through an "at-the-market" offering.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures were anticipated to be between $65 million and $75 million for fiscal year 2025.
- For fiscal 2026, planned capital expenditures are projected to be between $85 million and $95 million.
- The primary focus of these capital expenditures includes new restaurant development, restaurant remodels (with 19 completed in 2025), and investments in social media and marketing.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 157.53 |
| Mkt Cap | 7.4 |
| Rev LTM | 4,857 |
| Op Inc LTM | 380 |
| FCF LTM | 303 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 239 |
| CFO LTM | 556 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 441 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.8% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 3.9% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 20.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 7.4 |
| P/S | 1.5 |
| P/Op Inc | 17.2 |
| P/EBIT | 22.0 |
| P/E | 30.5 |
| P/CFO | 13.0 |
| Total Yield | 4.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 16.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 48.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 44.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 58.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 102.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 17.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 40.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 35.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 36.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 21.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full-service company-owned restaurants | 1,399 | 1,357 | 1,333 | 1,284 | 1,087 |
| Total | 1,399 | 1,357 | 1,333 | 1,284 | 1,087 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-service company-owned restaurants | 46 | 14 | 14 |
| Total | 46 | 14 | 14 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-service company-owned restaurants | 49 | 17 | 20 |
| Total | 49 | 17 | 20 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Full-service company-owned restaurants | 1,015 | 1,041 |
| Total | 1,015 | 1,041 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $69.55 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/10/1996 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -6.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $58.06 | $43.61 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 19.8% | 59.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 45.7% | 43.9% |
| Downside Capture | -159.29 | 69.74 |
| Upside Capture | 84.07 | 136.96 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 0.7% | 27.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.28 | -0.08 | 0.23 | 0.84 | 0.99 | 1.06 |
| Up Beta | 1.11 | 1.18 | 1.85 | 1.21 | 1.12 | 1.17 |
| Down Beta | -1.49 | -0.30 | -0.29 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.92 |
| Up Capture | 50% | 85% | 137% | 134% | 164% | 117% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 27 | 41 | 73 | 137 | 380 |
| Down Capture | -124% | -179% | -177% | 33% | 87% | 101% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 16 | 22 | 53 | 114 | 368 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BJRI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BJRI | 104.1% | 43.7% | 1.74 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 7.9% | 19.4% | 0.27 | 36.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 23.3% | 12.8% | 1.36 | 27.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 28.5% | 28.4% | 0.87 | 7.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 32.9% | 19.8% | 1.32 | -17.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.2% | 13.8% | 0.72 | 24.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -43.7% | 43.0% | -1.21 | 16.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BJRI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BJRI | 12.5% | 46.8% | 0.41 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 6.7% | 24.0% | 0.24 | 48.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.5% | 17.2% | 0.61 | 43.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.6% | 18.6% | 0.81 | 4.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 19.6% | 0.31 | 3.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.3% | 18.9% | 0.02 | 37.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 9.0% | 53.0% | 0.36 | 20.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BJRI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BJRI | 6.7% | 53.9% | 0.34 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.5% | 22.2% | 0.52 | 49.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 46.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.1% | 16.2% | 0.61 | 3.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.4% | 18.0% | 0.33 | 15.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 45.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.4% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 14.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 8/10/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/30/2026 | -9.0% | -5.9% | |
| 5/5/2026 | 4.6% | 8.2% | 12.1% |
| 2/25/2026 | -2.1% | -14.0% | -9.8% |
| 10/30/2025 | 18.4% | 20.9% | 29.3% |
| 7/31/2025 | -3.6% | -3.6% | -5.3% |
| 5/1/2025 | 13.2% | 15.9% | 35.9% |
| 2/20/2025 | 6.5% | 4.7% | -4.7% |
| 10/31/2024 | -8.4% | -3.7% | 0.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 11 | 12 |
| # Negative | 11 | 13 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 5.9% | 8.7% | 13.5% |
| Median Negative | -3.7% | -3.7% | -11.1% |
| Max Positive | 18.4% | 20.9% | 35.9% |
| Max Negative | -15.4% | -17.3% | -22.3% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/30/2026 | -9.0% | -5.9% | |
| 5/5/2026 | 4.6% | 8.2% | 12.1% |
| 2/25/2026 | -2.1% | -14.0% | -9.8% |
| 10/30/2025 | 18.4% | 20.9% | 29.3% |
| 7/31/2025 | -3.6% | -3.6% | -5.3% |
| 5/1/2025 | 13.2% | 15.9% | 35.9% |
| 2/20/2025 | 6.5% | 4.7% | -4.7% |
| 10/31/2024 | -8.4% | -3.7% | 0.6% |
| 7/25/2024 | -15.4% | -17.3% | -12.2% |
| 5/2/2024 | 5.9% | 3.9% | 7.3% |
| 2/15/2024 | 2.8% | -3.7% | -0.6% |
| 10/26/2023 | 8.7% | 14.8% | 28.7% |
| 7/27/2023 | 9.4% | 8.7% | -11.1% |
| 4/27/2023 | 12.6% | 8.7% | 7.2% |
| 2/16/2023 | -2.7% | -2.8% | -14.6% |
| 10/20/2022 | 4.5% | 12.4% | 19.8% |
| 7/21/2022 | -1.4% | 1.6% | 14.9% |
| 4/21/2022 | -0.4% | -2.3% | -22.3% |
| 2/17/2022 | 4.3% | -1.7% | -17.8% |
| 10/21/2021 | 2.3% | -5.6% | -7.6% |
| 7/29/2021 | -3.7% | -7.5% | 4.9% |
| 4/22/2021 | -5.7% | 2.6% | -11.3% |
| 2/11/2021 | 0.3% | -1.4% | 16.8% |
| 10/22/2020 | -8.5% | -16.8% | 5.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 11 | 12 |
| # Negative | 11 | 13 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 5.9% | 8.7% | 13.5% |
| Median Negative | -3.7% | -3.7% | -11.1% |
| Max Positive | 18.4% | 20.9% | 35.9% |
| Max Negative | -15.4% | -17.3% | -22.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/31/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/02/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/26/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/27/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/31/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/31/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/02/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/26/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/27/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/31/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/25/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/01/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/02/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/01/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/02/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/03/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/11/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/25/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/04/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/31/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/30/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Comparable Restaurant Sales | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 1.5% | Raised | Guidance: 0.02 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Restaurant Level Operating Profit | 228.00 Mil | 231.50 Mil | 235.00 Mil | 2.0% | Raised | Guidance: 227.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 145.00 Mil | 148.50 Mil | 152.00 Mil | 2.4% | Raised | Guidance: 145.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 85.00 Mil | 90.00 Mil | 95.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 90.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Share Repurchases | 50.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 50.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Comparable restaurant sales growth | 1.0% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Restaurant level operating profit | 221.00 Mil | 227.00 Mil | 233.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 227.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 140.00 Mil | 145.00 Mil | 150.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 145.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital expenditures | 85.00 Mil | 90.00 Mil | 95.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 90.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Share repurchases | 50.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 50.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/25/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Comparable restaurant sales growth | 1.0% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 0.0% | Same New | Guidance: 2.0% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Restaurant level operating profit | 221.00 Mil | 227.00 Mil | 233.00 Mil | 5.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 215.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 140.00 Mil | 145.00 Mil | 150.00 Mil | 6.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 136.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital expenditures | 85.00 Mil | 90.00 Mil | 95.00 Mil | 28.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 70.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Share repurchases | 50.00 Mil | -31.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 72.50 Mil for 2025 | |||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/30/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Comparable restaurant sales growth | 2.0% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.0% for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Restaurant level operating profit | 211.00 Mil | 215.00 Mil | 219.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 215.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | 132.00 Mil | 136.00 Mil | 140.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 136.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Capital expenditures | 65.00 Mil | 70.00 Mil | 75.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 70.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Share repurchases | 65.00 Mil | 72.50 Mil | 80.00 Mil | 45.0% | Raised | Guidance: 50.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 8/7/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miller, Kendra D | EVP & General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 8072026 | 69.80 | 2,978 | 207,864 | 1,788,346 | Form |
| 2 | Miller, Kendra D | EVP & General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 8072026 | 69.31 | 10,217 | 708,140 | 1,982,197 | Form |
| 3 | Lynds, Gregory S | EVP & Chief Dev. Officer | Direct | Sell | 8072026 | 68.81 | 21,704 | 1,493,452 | 1,704,424 | Form |
| 4 | Lynds, Gregory S | EVP & Chief Dev. Officer | Direct | Sell | 8052026 | 67.47 | 25,350 | 1,710,364 | 3,135,601 | Form |
| 5 | Lynds, Gregory S | EVP & Chief Dev. Officer | Direct | Sell | 6232026 | 55.86 | 6,201 | 346,388 | 2,596,038 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miller, Kendra D | EVP & General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 8072026 | 69.80 | 2,978 | 207,864 | 1,788,346 | Form |
| 2 | Miller, Kendra D | EVP & General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 8072026 | 69.31 | 10,217 | 708,140 | 1,982,197 | Form |
| 3 | Lynds, Gregory S | EVP & Chief Dev. Officer | Direct | Sell | 8072026 | 68.81 | 21,704 | 1,493,452 | 1,704,424 | Form |
| 4 | Lynds, Gregory S | EVP & Chief Dev. Officer | Direct | Sell | 8052026 | 67.47 | 25,350 | 1,710,364 | 3,135,601 | Form |
| 5 | Lynds, Gregory S | EVP & Chief Dev. Officer | Direct | Sell | 6232026 | 55.86 | 6,201 | 346,388 | 2,596,038 | Form |
| 6 | Elbogen, Noah A | Direct | Sell | 6232026 | 54.00 | 4,652 | 251,208 | 4,116,690 | Form | |
| 7 | Ottinger, Lea Anne | Direct | Sell | 6232026 | 53.50 | 2,792 | 149,372 | 2,124,004 | Form | |
| 8 | Rogers, Heidi | SVP & Chief Marketing Officer | Direct | Sell | 6152026 | 53.21 | 3,090 | 164,419 | 492,991 | Form |
| 9 | Lynds, Gregory S | EVP & Chief Dev. Officer | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 50.76 | 5,537 | 281,058 | 2,359,020 | Form |
| 10 | Miller, Kendra D | EVP & General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 6112026 | 55.60 | 19,261 | 1,070,912 | 1,590,104 | Form |
| 11 | Miller, Kendra D | EVP & General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 6112026 | 48.56 | 7,419 | 360,267 | 1,388,767 | Form |
| 12 | Krakower, Brian S | EVP & Chief Info. Officer | Direct | Sell | 6012026 | 55.17 | 7,341 | 405,003 | 260,458 | Form |
| 13 | Elbogen, Noah A | Direct | Sell | 6012026 | 47.85 | 4,049 | 193,745 | 3,647,845 | Form | |
| 14 | Krakower, Brian S | EVP & Chief Info. Officer | Direct | Sell | 6012026 | 46.71 | 3,475 | 162,327 | 220,531 | Form |
| 15 | Krakower, Brian S | EVP & Chief Info. Officer | Direct | Sell | 3182026 | 35.03 | 2,600 | 91,078 | 177,322 | Form |
| 16 | Richmond, C Bradford | Trust | Buy | 3062026 | 34.05 | 1,000 | 34,050 | 636,735 | Form | |
| 17 | Richmond, C Bradford | Trust | Buy | 3052026 | 35.10 | 1,200 | 42,122 | 586,198 | Form | |
| 18 | Krakower, Brian S | EVP & Chief Info. Officer | Direct | Sell | 12152025 | 39.61 | 8,017 | 317,570 | 174,650 | Form |
| 19 | Puchner, Alex | Sr. Vice President Brewing Ops | Direct | Sell | 9092025 | 34.06 | 1,821 | 62,023 | 361,785 | Form |
| 20 | Rogers, Heidi | Sr VP-Marketing | Direct | Sell | 8192025 | 35.36 | 4,116 | 145,542 | 252,612 | Form |
| 21 | Guild, Jacob | Sr VP & CAO | Direct | Sell | 8192025 | 35.51 | 9,521 | 338,091 | 135,045 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Restaurants Resources |
| Nation's Restaurant News |
| Restaurant Business |
| QSR Magazine |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.
