BJ's Restaurants (BJRI)
Market Price (6/26/2026): $56.37 | Market Cap: $1.2 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
BJ's Restaurants (BJRI)
Market Price (6/26/2026): $56.37Market Cap: $1.2 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 6.7% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Direct-to-Consumer Brands. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% | Key risksBJRI key risks include [1] persistent challenges in meeting comparable sales targets, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 6.7% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Direct-to-Consumer Brands. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Key risksBJRI key risks include [1] persistent challenges in meeting comparable sales targets, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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BJ's Restaurants (BJRI) stock has gained about 50% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Robust Operational Performance and Traffic Growth: BJ's Restaurants demonstrated strong operational momentum in fiscal Q1 2026, which ended March 31, 2026. The company reported a 2.4% increase in comparable restaurant sales, driven by a 2.2% rise in guest traffic. This marked its seventh consecutive quarter of sales and traffic growth.
2. Exceeding Revenue Expectations and Reaffirmed Outlook: Despite missing adjusted earnings per share (EPS) estimates with $0.57 against a consensus of $0.60-$0.61 for fiscal Q1 2026, BJRI's total revenues increased 2.9% year-over-year to $358.1 million, surpassing analyst estimates of approximately $357 million. Management also reiterated its full-year 2026 guidance, projecting comparable restaurant sales growth of 1% to 3% and Adjusted EBITDA of $140 million to $150 million, signaling continued confidence in future performance.
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BJ's Restaurants (BJRI) stock has gained about 50% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Robust Operational Performance and Traffic Growth: BJ's Restaurants demonstrated strong operational momentum in fiscal Q1 2026, which ended March 31, 2026. The company reported a 2.4% increase in comparable restaurant sales, driven by a 2.2% rise in guest traffic. This marked its seventh consecutive quarter of sales and traffic growth.
2. Exceeding Revenue Expectations and Reaffirmed Outlook: Despite missing adjusted earnings per share (EPS) estimates with $0.57 against a consensus of $0.60-$0.61 for fiscal Q1 2026, BJRI's total revenues increased 2.9% year-over-year to $358.1 million, surpassing analyst estimates of approximately $357 million. Management also reiterated its full-year 2026 guidance, projecting comparable restaurant sales growth of 1% to 3% and Adjusted EBITDA of $140 million to $150 million, signaling continued confidence in future performance.
3. Successful Strategic Initiatives Driving Guest Frequency: The company's strategic initiatives, particularly the "Pizookie Meal Deal," continued to drive positive results. This value platform contributed to increased guest frequency across various demographics, enhancing the company's overall value perception and traffic momentum. Management also highlighted ongoing efforts to improve restaurant-level margins through enhanced operational efficiencies and supply chain management.
4. Share Repurchase Program Enhancing Shareholder Value: During fiscal Q1 2026, BJ's Restaurants repurchased and retired approximately 151,000 shares of its common stock at a cost of approximately $5.3 million. This action, exceeding the USD 5 million threshold, signaled management's confidence in the company's valuation and contributed to returning capital to shareholders.
5. Analyst Upgrade and Positive Outlook: Following the Q1 2026 results, Benchmark, an investment firm, raised its price target on BJ's Restaurants shares from $48.00 to $50.00 while maintaining a "Buy" rating on May 6, 2026. This upgrade, citing the traffic-driven nature of the results and a positive outlook for continued outperformance in the restaurant sector, likely contributed to positive investor sentiment.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 48.3% change in BJRI stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/25/2026 was primarily driven by a 41.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6252026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 37.99 | 56.33 | 48.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,388 | 1,409 | 1.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.2% | 3.1% | 41.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 26.9 | 26.9 | -0.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 22 | 21 | 3.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 48.3% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/25/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BJRI | 48.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.3% | 40.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | -2.8% | 46.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 46.9% change in BJRI stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/25/2026 was primarily driven by a 41.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6252026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 38.35 | 56.33 | 46.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,388 | 1,409 | 1.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.2% | 3.1% | 41.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 27.2 | 26.9 | -1.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 22 | 21 | 3.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 46.9% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/25/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BJRI | 46.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.1% | 35.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | -3.7% | 39.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 26.3% change in BJRI stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/25/2026 was primarily driven by a 91.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6252026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 44.61 | 56.33 | 26.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,368 | 1,409 | 3.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.6% | 3.1% | 91.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 45.1 | 26.9 | -40.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 23 | 21 | 7.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 26.3% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/25/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BJRI | 26.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 26.0% | 33.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | 6.9% | 43.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 89.2% change in BJRI stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/25/2026 was primarily driven by a 584.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 5312023 | 6252026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 29.78 | 56.33 | 89.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,326 | 1,409 | 6.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.5% | 3.1% | 584.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 114.7 | 26.9 | -76.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 23 | 21 | 11.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 89.2% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/25/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BJRI | 89.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 82.6% | 40.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | 53.2% | 44.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BJRI Return | -10% | -24% | 37% | -2% | 12% | 39% | 42% |
| Peers Return | 5% | -6% | 31% | 52% | -7% | 29% | 134% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 7% | 96% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BJRI Win Rate | 50% | 33% | 67% | 50% | 50% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 38% | 58% | 62% | 43% | 70% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BJRI Max Drawdown | -53% | -43% | -42% | -27% | -39% | -27% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -36% | -35% | -24% | -26% | -36% | -22% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: DRI, TXRH, EAT, CAKE, BLMN. See BJRI Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/25/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BJRI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -16.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 24 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -19.1% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 23.7% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 51 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.0% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.6% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 71 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -13.7% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.9% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 11 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -41.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 226 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -84.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 556.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 295 days | 140 days |
In The Past
BJ's Restaurants's stock fell -16.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 20.3% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | BJRI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.0% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.6% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 71 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -41.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 226 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -84.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 556.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 295 days | 140 days |
| 2013 Taper Tantrum | ||
| % Loss | -23.1% | -0.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.1% | 0.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 129 days | 1 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.0% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 150.1% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 159 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
BJ's Restaurants's stock fell -16.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 20.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About BJ's Restaurants (BJRI)
BJ's Restaurants, Inc. (BJRI) operates as a prominent casual dining restaurant chain throughout the United States. The company's business model centers on owning and managing its various restaurant locations, providing patrons with a diverse menu in a relaxed, informal dining environment.
The core offerings at BJ's Restaurants include a wide array of food and beverage options designed to cater to varied tastes. These encompass signature pizzas, a comprehensive selection of craft and other beers, various appetizers, substantial entrées, pasta dishes, sandwiches, and fresh specialty salads. The dining experience is complemented by a tempting range of desserts.
BJ's Restaurants primarily serves the broad casual dining market across the United States. Its target customers are individuals and groups seeking quality food and beverages in an approachable setting. As of April 2022, the company had established a significant footprint with 213 restaurants spread across 29 states, highlighting its extensive national reach within the casual dining sector.
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Here are a couple of brief analogies for BJ's Restaurants:
A Cheesecake Factory known for pizzas and craft beers.
Like a California Pizza Kitchen with its own full-service brewpub.
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- Pizzas: A variety of baked dough dishes with savory toppings, representing a core menu item.
- Craft and other beers: A selection of alcoholic beverages, including both specialty craft brews and standard beer options.
- Appetizers: Small dishes served before the main course to stimulate the appetite.
- Entrées: The main course meals served at the restaurant.
- Pastas: Italian-style dishes made from various forms of dough, often served with sauces.
- Sandwiches: Prepared food items consisting of fillings placed between slices of bread.
- Specialty salads: Unique and distinct combinations of fresh greens and various toppings.
- Desserts: Sweet dishes served to conclude a meal.
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BJ's Restaurants (BJRI) primarily sells to individual consumers directly through its restaurant operations. Based on its business model as a casual dining restaurant chain, its major customer categories include:
- Families: Customers seeking a diverse menu with options for various ages and a comfortable, relaxed atmosphere for dining out with children.
- Social Diners/Groups of Friends: Individuals and groups looking for a casual and inviting environment to gather, socialize, and enjoy meals and beverages, including the company's selection of craft beers.
- Couples: Diners seeking a casual yet pleasant setting for dates or simply to enjoy a meal out together.
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Lyle D. Tick
Chief Executive Officer and President
Lyle D. Tick was appointed Chief Executive Officer and President of BJ's Restaurants, Inc. effective June 5, 2025. He joined the company in September 2024 as President and Chief Concept Officer. Prior to his tenure at BJ's, Mr. Tick held leadership roles at On the Border Mexican Grill & Cantina, where he served as President and CEO. His experience also includes leadership positions at Buffalo Wild Wings, Walgreens Boots Alliance, and Bacardi. Early in his career, he worked in advertising, collaborating with various food and beverage firms such as AB InBev and Moët Hennessy. Mr. Tick did not have prior experience running a publicly traded company before joining BJ's.
Todd Wilson
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Todd Wilson was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of BJ's Restaurants, Inc., effective December 15, 2025. He brings nearly two decades of financial leadership experience within the restaurant industry. Most recently, from November 2022, Mr. Wilson served as the CFO of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc., a publicly traded full-service restaurant chain, where he played a key role in improving restaurant-level margins and financial results. From 2018 to 2022, he was the CFO at Hopdoddy, contributing to improved operating margins, doubling the unit count through organic growth and acquisitions, and completing two debt refinancings. Before that, he held progressive financial leadership roles at Bloomin' Brands from 2006 to 2016 and also served as Vice President of Finance for Jamba Juice. Mr. Wilson holds an MBA from the University of South Florida and a bachelor's degree from the University of Florida.
Alex Puchner
Senior Vice President of Brewing Operations
Alex Puchner is the Senior Vice President of Brewing Operations at BJ's Restaurants, Inc. He joined BJ's in 1996 as its first brewmaster when the company built its first brewpub. Prior to BJ's, Mr. Puchner honed his brewing skills as a homebrewer and then as a craft brewer at some of the first brewpubs in Orange County and Los Angeles. He has been a beer judge at prestigious events like the Great American Beer Festival and World Beer Cup for three decades.
Gregory S. Lynds
Executive Vice President and Chief Development Officer
Christopher P. Pinsak
Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer
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Key Business Risks for BJ's Restaurants (BJRI)
- Macroeconomic Challenges and Consumer Spending: BJ's Restaurants faces significant risks from macroeconomic headwinds, including inflation and fluctuating consumer discretionary spending. The company has noted concerns regarding increased food cost inflation and general consumer uncertainty, which can impact guest traffic and average check sizes. This also includes the potential for a restaurant price war and traffic shifting away from casual dining to grocery or quick-service alternatives.
- Intense Competition: The casual dining sector is highly competitive, posing a continuous challenge for BJ's Restaurants. The company operates in an environment where customers have significant power due to low switching costs, making it difficult to maintain and grow market share. Larger rivals may also have more resources to deploy in competitive strategies.
- Rising Labor and Commodity Costs & Supply Chain Volatility: BJ's Restaurants is exposed to risks associated with rising labor costs and volatility in commodity prices. The costs of certain key ingredients, such as avocados, ground beef, and bone-in wings, have experienced year-over-year increases. Furthermore, the company's reliance on frequent and consistent deliveries makes it vulnerable to supply chain disruptions caused by weather, natural disasters, labor issues, or other operational interruptions.
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- The proliferation of ghost kitchens and virtual restaurant brands optimized for delivery, which operate with significantly lower overheads than traditional brick-and-mortar restaurants, creating intense competition in the delivery and takeout segments.
- Rapid advancements and potential widespread adoption of automation and robotics in kitchen operations, which could drastically reduce labor costs and improve operational efficiency for competing restaurant concepts, putting pressure on traditional casual dining models.
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BJ's Restaurants, Inc. operates in the casual dining segment of the restaurant industry, with offerings including pizzas and craft beers. The addressable markets for these main products and services are within the United States.
U.S. Full-Service Restaurants Market (includes Casual Dining)
The U.S. full-service restaurant market, which encompasses casual dining, was valued at approximately US$ 371.9 billion in 2025. This market is projected to reach US$ 715.8 billion by 2032, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.7% from 2025 to 2032. Another estimate valued the U.S. full-service restaurant market at USD 362.15 billion in 2025, with a projection to grow to USD 685.11 billion by 2031 at a CAGR of 11.07% during the forecast period (2026-2031). The sector is also expected to grow from USD 336.22 billion in 2024 to USD 807.83 billion by 2033, at a CAGR of 10.23% from 2025-2033.
U.S. Pizza Market
The United States pizza market reached an estimated USD 39.0 billion in 2025. Looking ahead, the market is expected to reach USD 50.7 billion by 2034, demonstrating a CAGR of 2.95% during the period of 2026-2034. In 2024, the United States pizza restaurant market was projected to reach $50.1 billion in revenue.
U.S. Craft Beer Market
The United States craft beer market size was approximately USD 31.3 billion in 2025. Projections indicate this market is expected to reach USD 42.4 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 3.43% from 2026 to 2034. In 2024, retail dollar sales of craft beer in the U.S. increased by 3% to $28.8 billion, representing 24.7% of the total U.S. beer market.
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BJ's Restaurants (NASDAQ: BJRI) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through a combination of strategic initiatives focused on expansion, menu innovation, customer engagement, and operational improvements.
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth:
- New Restaurant Expansion and Prototype Development: BJ's Restaurants plans to reignite net unit growth, with management indicating plans to pilot up to two new restaurant openings in late 2026 featuring a refreshed prototype for future expansion. This measured ramp-up in new unit development is expected to contribute to long-term growth. Contributions from new restaurant openings were already a driver of revenue growth in fiscal 2025.
- Menu Innovation and Product Launches: The company is focused on menu renovation, including a renovated pizza platform that has already shown increased "pizza incidents." The Pizookie platform, including the Pizookie Meal Deal and seasonally relevant Pizookies, is a key product offering that has driven traffic and is expected to continue contributing to sales. Successful limited-time offerings (LTOs) are also part of this strategy.
- Enhanced Guest Traffic through Marketing and Value Offerings: BJ's Restaurants is emphasizing social and influencer-driven marketing to boost brand awareness and attract customers, particularly a younger demographic. Initiatives like the Pizookie Meal Deal and late-night occasions are highlighted as key drivers for increasing guest frequency and delivering value, which in turn leads to higher traffic. The company's Daily Brewhouse Specials have also resonated with value-seeking guests.
- Growth in High-Margin Channels: Scaling high-margin channels such as catering and optimizing the digital experience are considered primary engines for future profitable growth. This includes enhancing app and web ordering to improve conversion rates and average check sizes, and leveraging off-premise sales.
- Operational Efficiencies to Support Competitive Positioning: Ongoing margin improvement initiatives and operational enhancements are expected to yield further benefits. These efficiencies, including improvements in cost of sales, activity-based labor management, and supply chain initiatives, enable the company to maintain competitive pricing and value propositions, thereby supporting sustained traffic and sales growth.
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Share Repurchases
- BJ's Restaurants repurchased approximately 2.0 million shares for roughly $67.8 million in fiscal 2025.
- During the fourth quarter of 2025, the company repurchased and retired approximately 167,000 shares of common stock at a cost of about $5.4 million.
- As of February 25, 2026, approximately $93.2 million remained available under the company's authorized share repurchase program, and management anticipates repurchasing up to $50 million in 2026.
Share Issuance
- Through two capital raising transactions in May 2020 and January 2021, BJ's Restaurants raised a total of approximately $100 million.
- This included a $70 million private placement of common stock in May 2020 and a $30 million sale of common stock through an "at-the-market" offering.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures were anticipated to be between $65 million and $75 million for fiscal year 2025.
- For fiscal 2026, planned capital expenditures are projected to be between $85 million and $95 million.
- The primary focus of these capital expenditures includes new restaurant development, restaurant remodels (with 19 completed in 2025), and investments in social media and marketing.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 126.23 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.6 |
| Rev LTM | 4,850 |
| Op Inc LTM | 379 |
| FCF LTM | 263 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 227 |
| CFO LTM | 535 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 442 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.1% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 8.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 25.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.6 |
| P/S | 1.1 |
| P/Op Inc | 15.2 |
| P/EBIT | 19.0 |
| P/E | 24.6 |
| P/CFO | 10.7 |
| Total Yield | 6.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.8% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 15.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 34.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 23.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 3.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 84.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 17.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 17.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 14.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -19.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 17.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full-service company-owned restaurants | 1,399 | 1,357 | 1,333 | 1,284 | 1,087 |
| Total | 1,399 | 1,357 | 1,333 | 1,284 | 1,087 |
| $ Mil | 2025 |
|---|---|
| Full-service company-owned restaurants | 46 |
| Total | 46 |
| $ Mil | 2025 |
|---|---|
| Full-service company-owned restaurants | 49 |
| Total | 49 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Full-service company-owned restaurants | 1,015 | 1,041 |
| Total | 1,015 | 1,041 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $56.33 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/10/1996 | |
| Distance from 52W High | 0.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $43.95 | $38.68 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 28.2% | 45.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 40.9% | 42.2% |
| Downside Capture | 3.63 | 122.08 |
| Upside Capture | 150.81 | 123.04 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 37.1% | 34.6% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.77 | 1.87 | 1.45 | 1.22 | 1.30 | 1.15 |
| Up Beta | 5.01 | 2.57 | 1.58 | 1.11 | 1.23 | 1.19 |
| Down Beta | 0.90 | 0.79 | 1.73 | 1.04 | 1.16 | 1.00 |
| Up Capture | 229% | 187% | 159% | 154% | 128% | 148% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 14 | 26 | 37 | 70 | 127 | 376 |
| Down Capture | -111% | 105% | 109% | 119% | 138% | 105% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 6 | 15 | 26 | 54 | 121 | 370 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BJRI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BJRI | 32.2% | 41.9% | 0.77 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 5.8% | 18.6% | 0.17 | 44.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 22.1% | 12.4% | 1.33 | 34.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.8% | 27.7% | 0.67 | 5.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 23.3% | 18.5% | 0.99 | -16.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.6% | 13.8% | 0.55 | 26.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -42.9% | 42.5% | -1.20 | 16.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BJRI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BJRI | 4.0% | 46.7% | 0.24 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 6.4% | 23.9% | 0.23 | 50.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.3% | 17.1% | 0.60 | 44.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.4% | 18.3% | 0.77 | 4.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.9% | 19.5% | 0.30 | 4.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.8% | 18.9% | 0.05 | 37.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 9.8% | 54.1% | 0.38 | 20.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BJRI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BJRI | 2.8% | 53.7% | 0.27 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.4% | 22.1% | 0.51 | 50.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 47.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.6% | 16.1% | 0.59 | 2.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 5.9% | 18.0% | 0.25 | 16.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.5% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 45.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 56.4% | 66.5% | 0.97 | 14.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/15/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/5/2026 | 4.6% | 8.2% | 12.1% |
| 2/25/2026 | -2.1% | -14.0% | -9.8% |
| 10/30/2025 | 18.4% | 20.9% | 29.3% |
| 7/31/2025 | -3.6% | -3.6% | -5.3% |
| 5/1/2025 | 13.2% | 15.9% | 35.9% |
| 2/20/2025 | 6.5% | 4.7% | -4.7% |
| 10/31/2024 | -8.4% | -3.7% | 0.6% |
| 7/25/2024 | -15.4% | -17.3% | -12.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 12 | 13 |
| # Negative | 10 | 12 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 6.2% | 8.5% | 14.9% |
| Median Negative | -3.6% | -3.7% | -11.1% |
| Max Positive | 18.4% | 20.9% | 38.0% |
| Max Negative | -15.4% | -17.3% | -22.3% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/5/2026 | 4.6% | 8.2% | 12.1% |
| 2/25/2026 | -2.1% | -14.0% | -9.8% |
| 10/30/2025 | 18.4% | 20.9% | 29.3% |
| 7/31/2025 | -3.6% | -3.6% | -5.3% |
| 5/1/2025 | 13.2% | 15.9% | 35.9% |
| 2/20/2025 | 6.5% | 4.7% | -4.7% |
| 10/31/2024 | -8.4% | -3.7% | 0.6% |
| 7/25/2024 | -15.4% | -17.3% | -12.2% |
| 5/2/2024 | 5.9% | 3.9% | 7.3% |
| 2/15/2024 | 2.8% | -3.7% | -0.6% |
| 10/26/2023 | 8.7% | 14.8% | 28.7% |
| 7/27/2023 | 9.4% | 8.7% | -11.1% |
| 4/27/2023 | 12.6% | 8.7% | 7.2% |
| 2/16/2023 | -2.7% | -2.8% | -14.6% |
| 10/20/2022 | 4.5% | 12.4% | 19.8% |
| 7/21/2022 | -1.4% | 1.6% | 14.9% |
| 4/21/2022 | -0.4% | -2.3% | -22.3% |
| 2/17/2022 | 4.3% | -1.7% | -17.8% |
| 10/21/2021 | 2.3% | -5.6% | -7.6% |
| 7/29/2021 | -3.7% | -7.5% | 4.9% |
| 4/22/2021 | -5.7% | 2.6% | -11.3% |
| 2/11/2021 | 0.3% | -1.4% | 16.8% |
| 10/22/2020 | -8.5% | -16.8% | 5.0% |
| 7/23/2020 | 10.2% | 8.4% | 38.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 12 | 13 |
| # Negative | 10 | 12 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 6.2% | 8.5% | 14.9% |
| Median Negative | -3.6% | -3.7% | -11.1% |
| Max Positive | 18.4% | 20.9% | 38.0% |
| Max Negative | -15.4% | -17.3% | -22.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/02/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/26/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/27/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/31/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/02/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/26/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/27/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/31/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/25/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/01/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/02/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/01/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/02/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/03/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/11/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/25/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/04/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/05/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 5/31/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Comparable restaurant sales growth | 1.0% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 0 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.0% for 2026 |
| 2026 Restaurant level operating profit | 221.00 Mil | 227.00 Mil | 233.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 227.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 140.00 Mil | 145.00 Mil | 150.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 145.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital expenditures | 85.00 Mil | 90.00 Mil | 95.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 90.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Share repurchases | 50.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 50.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/25/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Comparable restaurant sales growth | 1.0% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 0 | 0 | Same New | Actual: 2.0% for 2025 |
| 2026 Restaurant level operating profit | 221.00 Mil | 227.00 Mil | 233.00 Mil | 5.6% | Higher New | Actual: 215.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 140.00 Mil | 145.00 Mil | 150.00 Mil | 6.6% | Higher New | Actual: 136.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital expenditures | 85.00 Mil | 90.00 Mil | 95.00 Mil | 28.6% | Higher New | Actual: 70.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Share repurchases | 50.00 Mil | -31.0% | Lower New | Actual: 72.50 Mil for 2025 | |||
Insider Activity
Updated 6/22/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rogers, Heidi | SVP & Chief Marketing Officer | Direct | Sell | 6152026 | 53.21 | 3,090 | 164,419 | 492,991 | Form |
| 2 | Lynds, Gregory S | EVP & Chief Dev. Officer | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 50.76 | 5,537 | 281,058 | 2,359,020 | Form |
| 3 | Miller, Kendra D | EVP & General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 6112026 | 55.60 | 19,261 | 1,070,912 | 1,590,104 | Form |
| 4 | Miller, Kendra D | EVP & General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 6112026 | 48.56 | 7,419 | 360,267 | 1,388,767 | Form |
| 5 | Krakower, Brian S | EVP & Chief Info. Officer | Direct | Sell | 6012026 | 55.17 | 7,341 | 405,003 | 260,458 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rogers, Heidi | SVP & Chief Marketing Officer | Direct | Sell | 6152026 | 53.21 | 3,090 | 164,419 | 492,991 | Form |
| 2 | Lynds, Gregory S | EVP & Chief Dev. Officer | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 50.76 | 5,537 | 281,058 | 2,359,020 | Form |
| 3 | Miller, Kendra D | EVP & General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 6112026 | 55.60 | 19,261 | 1,070,912 | 1,590,104 | Form |
| 4 | Miller, Kendra D | EVP & General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 6112026 | 48.56 | 7,419 | 360,267 | 1,388,767 | Form |
| 5 | Krakower, Brian S | EVP & Chief Info. Officer | Direct | Sell | 6012026 | 55.17 | 7,341 | 405,003 | 260,458 | Form |
| 6 | Elbogen, Noah A | Direct | Sell | 6012026 | 47.85 | 4,049 | 193,745 | 3,647,845 | Form | |
| 7 | Krakower, Brian S | EVP & Chief Info. Officer | Direct | Sell | 6012026 | 46.71 | 3,475 | 162,327 | 220,531 | Form |
| 8 | Krakower, Brian S | EVP & Chief Info. Officer | Direct | Sell | 3182026 | 35.03 | 2,600 | 91,078 | 177,322 | Form |
| 9 | Richmond, C Bradford | Trust | Buy | 3062026 | 34.05 | 1,000 | 34,050 | 636,735 | Form | |
| 10 | Richmond, C Bradford | Trust | Buy | 3052026 | 35.10 | 1,200 | 42,122 | 586,198 | Form | |
| 11 | Krakower, Brian S | EVP & Chief Info. Officer | Direct | Sell | 12152025 | 39.61 | 8,017 | 317,570 | 174,650 | Form |
| 12 | Puchner, Alex | Sr. Vice President Brewing Ops | Direct | Sell | 9092025 | 34.06 | 1,821 | 62,023 | 361,785 | Form |
| 13 | Rogers, Heidi | Sr VP-Marketing | Direct | Sell | 8192025 | 35.36 | 4,116 | 145,542 | 252,612 | Form |
| 14 | Guild, Jacob | Sr VP & CAO | Direct | Sell | 8192025 | 35.51 | 9,521 | 338,091 | 135,045 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Restaurants Resources |
| Nation's Restaurant News |
| Restaurant Business |
| QSR Magazine |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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