Tearsheet

BJ's Restaurants (BJRI)


Market Price (12/20/2025): $41.025 | Market Cap: $898.2 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants

BJ's Restaurants (BJRI)


Market Price (12/20/2025): $41.025
Market Cap: $898.2 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Restaurants

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 5.4%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -18%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -32%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 52%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 45%
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 30x
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Direct-to-Consumer Brands.
  Key risks
BJRI key risks include [1] persistent challenges in meeting comparable sales targets, Show more.
0 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 5.4%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 45%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Direct-to-Consumer Brands.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -18%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -32%
4 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 52%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 30x
6 Key risks
BJRI key risks include [1] persistent challenges in meeting comparable sales targets, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

BJRI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for why BJ's Restaurants (BJRI) stock moved by 23.3% between approximately August 31, 2025, and December 20, 2025:

1. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Beat on Profitability. BJ's Restaurants reported its fiscal third-quarter 2025 results on October 30, 2025, announcing a diluted net income per share of $0.02, a significant improvement from a diluted net loss per share of $0.13 in the same quarter of the previous year. The adjusted diluted net income per share of $0.04 notably surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.01 per share.

2. Expansion of Share Repurchase Program. During the third quarter of 2025, the company repurchased and retired approximately 996,000 shares of its common stock at a cost of approximately $33.2 million. This was followed by the Board of Directors' approval in October 2025 to increase the share repurchase program by an additional $75 million, signaling strong management confidence and potentially boosting shareholder value.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
BJRI Return2%-10%-24%37%-2%17%9%
Peers Return14%5%-6%31%52%-2%119%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
BJRI Win Rate42%50%33%67%50%50% 
Peers Win Rate62%52%38%58%62%45% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
BJRI Max Drawdown-83%-24%-41%-17%-23%-18% 
Peers Max Drawdown-67%-13%-28%-3%-19%-20% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DRI, TXRH, EAT, CAKE, BLMN. See BJRI Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventBJRIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-67.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven205.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-85.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven568.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven296 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-56.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven131.3%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-71.5%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven250.7%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven477 days1,480 days

Compare to CMG, DRI, BLMN, DIN, CADV


In The Past

BJ's Restaurants's stock fell -67.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/16/2021. A -67.2% loss requires a 205.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About BJ's Restaurants (BJRI)

Better Bets than BJ's Restaurants (BJRI)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to BJRI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
13.7%13.7%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.8%5.8%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.6%3.6%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
18.4%18.4%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
11.9%11.9%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
13.7%13.7%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.8%5.8%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.6%3.6%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
18.4%18.4%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
11.9%11.9%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for BJ's Restaurants

Peers to compare with:

Financials

BJRIDRITXRHEATCAKEBLMNMedian
NameBJ's Res.Darden R.Texas Ro.Brinker .Cheeseca.Bloomin . 
Mkt Price41.38189.87175.77149.4452.026.92100.73
Mkt Cap0.922.211.76.72.40.64.6
Rev LTM1,38812,3645,8345,5943,7113,9534,774
Op Inc LTM471,469517607250135383
FCF LTM491,068341470158100249
FCF 3Y Avg18942291264102111188
CFO LTM1241,768747737320277529
CFO 3Y Avg1061,590648484259339412

Growth & Margins

BJRIDRITXRHEATCAKEBLMNMedian
NameBJ's Res.Darden R.Texas Ro.Brinker .Cheeseca.Bloomin . 
Rev Chg LTM3.9%8.3%14.4%23.2%4.9%7.7%8.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg4.2%8.2%14.4%13.2%5.2%-2.9%6.7%
Rev Chg Q1.4%10.4%12.8%18.5%4.8%2.1%7.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.3%2.4%2.9%3.9%1.1%0.5%1.8%
Op Mgn LTM3.4%11.9%8.9%10.9%6.7%3.4%7.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg2.4%11.8%8.6%7.6%5.7%5.6%6.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.1%-0.0%-0.4%0.6%0.1%-0.5%0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM8.9%14.3%12.8%13.2%8.6%7.0%10.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg7.8%13.8%12.6%9.8%7.2%8.5%9.2%
FCF/Rev LTM3.5%8.6%5.8%8.4%4.3%2.5%5.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg1.3%8.1%5.6%5.2%2.8%2.8%4.0%

Valuation

BJRIDRITXRHEATCAKEBLMNMedian
NameBJ's Res.Darden R.Texas Ro.Brinker .Cheeseca.Bloomin . 
Mkt Cap0.922.211.76.72.40.64.6
P/S0.71.82.01.20.70.10.9
P/EBIT29.515.822.611.613.08.814.4
P/E29.320.126.715.015.1-10.217.6
P/CFO7.312.515.69.17.62.18.3
Total Yield3.4%8.0%4.5%6.6%8.8%0.1%5.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%3.0%0.8%0.0%2.2%10.0%1.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg2.4%4.8%3.0%7.4%5.0%9.4%4.9%
D/E0.60.30.10.30.93.70.4
Net D/E0.50.30.10.30.83.60.4

Returns

BJRIDRITXRHEATCAKEBLMNMedian
NameBJ's Res.Darden R.Texas Ro.Brinker .Cheeseca.Bloomin . 
1M Rtn18.8%11.7%5.5%16.8%18.1%12.5%14.7%
3M Rtn39.1%3.6%11.5%9.6%-4.1%1.3%6.6%
6M Rtn-10.0%-14.6%-8.2%-16.4%-12.4%-25.7%-13.5%
12M Rtn17.8%6.6%-2.4%13.8%9.4%-38.6%8.0%
3Y Rtn50.8%50.0%92.3%358.1%83.2%-61.2%67.0%
1M Excs Rtn15.9%8.8%2.6%13.9%15.2%9.6%11.8%
3M Excs Rtn35.3%1.2%8.5%5.6%-5.0%-2.4%3.4%
6M Excs Rtn-20.3%-26.4%-19.5%-29.8%-26.0%-35.6%-26.2%
12M Excs Rtn-2.1%5.3%-17.5%-1.2%-7.6%-54.9%-4.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-31.5%-25.5%13.7%247.8%-7.0%-133.6%-16.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Full-service company-owned restaurants1,3331,2841,0877791,161
Total1,3331,2841,0877791,161


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,884,778
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520251.6%
Average Daily Volume496,768
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.79
Basic Shares Quantity21,893,000
Short % of Basic Shares8.6%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/30/202518.4%20.9%29.3%
7/31/2025-3.6%-3.6%-5.3%
5/1/202513.2%15.9%35.9%
2/20/20256.5%4.7%-4.7%
10/31/2024-8.4%-3.7%0.6%
7/25/2024-15.4%-17.3%-12.2%
5/2/20245.9%3.9%7.3%
2/15/20242.8%-3.7%-0.6%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131213
# Negative101110
Median Positive7.4%8.5%14.9%
Median Negative-4.7%-5.6%-11.2%
Max Positive18.4%20.9%41.2%
Max Negative-15.4%-26.8%-81.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025808202510-Q 7/1/2025
3312025505202510-Q 4/1/2025
12312024226202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241104202410-Q 10/1/2024
6302024805202410-Q 7/2/2024
3312024506202410-Q 4/2/2024
12312023227202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231106202310-Q 10/3/2023
6302023807202310-Q 7/4/2023
3312023508202310-Q 4/4/2023
12312022228202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221031202210-Q 9/27/2022
6302022801202210-Q 6/28/2022
3312022502202210-Q 3/29/2022
12312021225202210-K 12/31/2021