BJ's Restaurants (BJRI)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $41.185 | Market Cap: $901.7 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
BJ's Restaurants (BJRI)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $41.185Market Cap: $901.7 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 7.4% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -16%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -29% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 71% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% | Key risksBJRI key risks include [1] persistent challenges in meeting comparable sales targets, Show more. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Direct-to-Consumer Brands. |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 7.4% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Direct-to-Consumer Brands. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -16%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -29% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 71% |
| Key risksBJRI key risks include [1] persistent challenges in meeting comparable sales targets, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
BJRI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The requested information regarding the 22.7% stock movement for BJ's Restaurants (BJRI) during the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, pertains to a future timeframe for which specific market events and their impact on stock performance are not yet established.
However, based on available information for the latter part of 2025, here are some key points that could influence BJRI's stock performance:
1. BJ's Restaurants (BJRI) reported its fiscal Third Quarter 2025 results on October 30, 2025. The company reported diluted net income per share of $0.02, an improvement from a diluted net loss per share of $0.13 in the prior year. Adjusted diluted net income per share was $0.04, compared to an adjusted diluted net loss per share of $0.13 in the previous year. Total revenues increased by 1.4% to $330.2 million, and comparable restaurant sales increased by 0.5%.
2. The company announced a significant increase in its share repurchase program. During the third quarter of 2025, BJ's Restaurants repurchased and retired approximately 996,000 shares of its common stock at a cost of approximately $33.2 million. In October 2025, the Board of Directors approved an additional $75 million for the repurchase program. For fiscal year 2025, the company updated its annual share repurchase expectations from $45 million-$55 million to $65 million-$80 million.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BJRI Return | 2% | -10% | -24% | 37% | -2% | 15% | 7% |
| Peers Return | 14% | 5% | -6% | 31% | 52% | -6% | 110% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BJRI Win Rate | 42% | 50% | 33% | 67% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 52% | 38% | 58% | 62% | 43% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BJRI Max Drawdown | -83% | -24% | -41% | -17% | -23% | -18% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -67% | -13% | -28% | -3% | -19% | -20% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DRI, TXRH, EAT, CAKE, BLMN. See BJRI Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BJRI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -67.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 205.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -85.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 568.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 296 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -56.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 131.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -71.5% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 250.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 477 days | 1480 days |
Compare to CMG, DRI, BLMN, DIN, BRCB
In The Past
BJ's Restaurants's stock fell -67.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/16/2021. A -67.2% loss requires a 205.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to BJRI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for BJ's Restaurants
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 97.88 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.4 |
| Rev LTM | 4,774 |
| Op Inc LTM | 383 |
| FCF LTM | 249 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 188 |
| CFO LTM | 529 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 412 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.4 |
| P/S | 0.8 |
| P/EBIT | 15.9 |
| P/E | 18.7 |
| P/CFO | 7.8 |
| Total Yield | 5.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.8% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 11.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 2.8% |
| 6M Rtn | -13.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 5.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 58.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 11.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -26.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -2.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -15.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/30/2025 | 18.4% | 20.9% | 29.3% |
| 7/31/2025 | -3.6% | -3.6% | -5.3% |
| 5/1/2025 | 13.2% | 15.9% | 35.9% |
| 2/20/2025 | 6.5% | 4.7% | -4.7% |
| 10/31/2024 | -8.4% | -3.7% | 0.6% |
| 7/25/2024 | -15.4% | -17.3% | -12.2% |
| 5/2/2024 | 5.9% | 3.9% | 7.3% |
| 2/15/2024 | 2.8% | -3.7% | -0.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 12 | 13 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 7.4% | 8.5% | 14.9% |
| Median Negative | -4.7% | -5.6% | -11.2% |
| Max Positive | 18.4% | 20.9% | 41.2% |
| Max Negative | -15.4% | -26.8% | -81.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 7/1/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5052025 | 10-Q 4/1/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11042024 | 10-Q 10/1/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8052024 | 10-Q 7/2/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5062024 | 10-Q 4/2/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11062023 | 10-Q 10/3/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8072023 | 10-Q 7/4/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5082023 | 10-Q 4/4/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10312022 | 10-Q 9/27/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8012022 | 10-Q 6/28/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5022022 | 10-Q 3/29/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |