Ralph Lauren (RL)
Market Price (11/10/2026): $398.53 | Market Cap: $23.6 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods
Ralph Lauren (RL)
Market Price (11/10/2026): $398.53Market Cap: $23.6 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.4%, FCF Yield is 5.3% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.0 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Luxury Consumer Goods, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.3%, Dist 3Y High is -3.3% | Key risksRL key risks include [1] its high revenue dependence on the U.S. Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.4%, FCF Yield is 5.3% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.0 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Luxury Consumer Goods, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.3%, Dist 3Y High is -3.3% |
| Key risksRL key risks include [1] its high revenue dependence on the U.S. Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Ralph Lauren (RL) stock has gained about 5% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q1 and Q2 2027 Performance Tempered by High Investor Expectations.
Ralph Lauren consistently surpassed analyst estimates for both fiscal Q1 2027 (ended June 27, 2026) and fiscal Q2 2027 (ended September 26, 2026). For fiscal Q1 2027, reported on August 6, 2026, the company posted earnings per share (EPS) of $4.59, beating consensus estimates of $4.32 by $0.27, and revenue of $1.96 billion, exceeding forecasts of $1.87 billion. Similarly, for fiscal Q2 2027, reported on November 5, 2026, revenue increased 9.1% year-over-year to $2.19 billion, above estimates of $2.12 billion, and adjusted EPS of $4.64 surpassed expectations of $4.26. The company also raised its full-year fiscal 2027 revenue guidance to a mid- to high-single-digit increase. Despite these robust results, the stock experienced a decline of approximately 4% in early trading following the Q2 earnings release, as investors sought even faster growth and set a high performance bar.
2. Uneven Regional Growth with Persistent European Weakness.
While Ralph Lauren demonstrated significant growth in key regions, performance was uneven, particularly with sluggishness in Europe. In fiscal Q2 2027, North America revenue increased 6.4% and Asia revenue surged 28% (including over 35% growth in China). In contrast, European revenue saw only a 1% reported increase (3% in constant currency), and comparable store sales in Europe decreased by 1%, with brick-and-mortar sales declining 4%. This regional disparity likely tempered overall positive sentiment despite strong performance in other critical markets.
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Ralph Lauren (RL) stock has gained about 5% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q1 and Q2 2027 Performance Tempered by High Investor Expectations.
Ralph Lauren consistently surpassed analyst estimates for both fiscal Q1 2027 (ended June 27, 2026) and fiscal Q2 2027 (ended September 26, 2026). For fiscal Q1 2027, reported on August 6, 2026, the company posted earnings per share (EPS) of $4.59, beating consensus estimates of $4.32 by $0.27, and revenue of $1.96 billion, exceeding forecasts of $1.87 billion. Similarly, for fiscal Q2 2027, reported on November 5, 2026, revenue increased 9.1% year-over-year to $2.19 billion, above estimates of $2.12 billion, and adjusted EPS of $4.64 surpassed expectations of $4.26. The company also raised its full-year fiscal 2027 revenue guidance to a mid- to high-single-digit increase. Despite these robust results, the stock experienced a decline of approximately 4% in early trading following the Q2 earnings release, as investors sought even faster growth and set a high performance bar.
2. Uneven Regional Growth with Persistent European Weakness.
While Ralph Lauren demonstrated significant growth in key regions, performance was uneven, particularly with sluggishness in Europe. In fiscal Q2 2027, North America revenue increased 6.4% and Asia revenue surged 28% (including over 35% growth in China). In contrast, European revenue saw only a 1% reported increase (3% in constant currency), and comparable store sales in Europe decreased by 1%, with brick-and-mortar sales declining 4%. This regional disparity likely tempered overall positive sentiment despite strong performance in other critical markets.
3. Persistent Valuation Concerns.
Throughout the specified period, Ralph Lauren's stock was consistently identified as modestly overvalued. On August 20, 2026, the stock was trading at $377.81, approximately 25% above its intrinsic value estimate, indicating it was "Modestly Overvalued". This sentiment continued, with the stock trading at $381.55 on November 5, 2026, about 24.4% above its GF Value, further suggesting it was "modestly overvalued". An elevated price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23.47 compared to the industry median of 16.92 in August 2026 also contributed to these valuation concerns, limiting significant upward movement.
4. Mixed Trends and Headwinds in the Broader Luxury Retail Market for Fashion Categories.
The overall luxury retail market experienced mixed trends that likely influenced Ralph Lauren's stock movement. In the third quarter of 2026, "lasting luxury goods" such as jewelry and leather products demonstrated stronger growth, expanding approximately 15 percentage points faster than fashion-led divisions, which saw a decline of 5.0%. While Ralph Lauren showcased strength in its apparel offerings, particularly in North America and Asia, these broader sector dynamics, with a shift away from fashion-led categories, could have acted as a ceiling on its stock performance. The luxury and fashion sector as a whole was expected to see low single-digit growth.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 5.1% change in RL stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 8.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 379.26 | 398.52 | 5.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,114 | 8,538 | 5.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.6% | 12.6% | 8.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.5 | 22.3 | -8.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 61 | 60 | 1.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 5.1% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RL | 5.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.8% | 50.7% |
| Sector (XLY) | 4.2% | 60.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 11.7% change in RL stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 9.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 356.75 | 398.52 | 11.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 7,833 | 8,538 | 9.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.7% | 12.6% | 7.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 23.7 | 22.3 | -6.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 61 | 60 | 1.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 11.7% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RL | 11.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.0% | 42.2% |
| Sector (XLY) | 2.5% | 49.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 26.0% change in RL stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 17.2% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 316.30 | 398.52 | 26.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 7,286 | 8,538 | 17.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.9% | 12.6% | 15.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.3 | 22.3 | -8.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 61 | 60 | 1.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 26.0% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RL | 26.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.3% | 49.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | 1.5% | 55.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 269.4% change in RL stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 66.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 107.87 | 398.52 | 269.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6,450 | 8,538 | 32.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.2% | 12.6% | 52.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.4 | 22.3 | 66.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 66 | 60 | 9.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 269.4% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RL | 269.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 86.2% | 56.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | 62.8% | 56.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| RL Return | 17% | -8% | 40% | 63% | 55% | 14% | 328% |
| Peers Return | 12% | -40% | 10% | 10% | 27% | 82% | 87% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 96% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| RL Win Rate | 50% | 33% | 50% | 67% | 67% | 64% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 42% | 50% | 52% | 47% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 36% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| RL Max Drawdown | -25% | -37% | -17% | -17% | -36% | -19% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -35% | -61% | -46% | -41% | -50% | -33% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: VRA, TPR, VFC, PVH, FOSL. See RL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/9/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | RL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -36.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -11.4% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.9% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 33 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -13.9% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.2% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 47 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -13.1% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.1% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 15 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -29.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.0% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 108 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -48.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 94.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 327 days | 140 days |
In The Past
Ralph Lauren's stock fell -36.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 56.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
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| Event | RL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -36.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -29.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.0% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 108 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -48.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 94.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 327 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -27.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -31.7% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.4% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 189 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -28.9% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.6% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 708 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -49.8% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 99.1% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2863 days | 15 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -23.8% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.2% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 99 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -48.9% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 95.7% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 143 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -27.4% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.8% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1165 days | 47 days |
In The Past
Ralph Lauren's stock fell -36.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 56.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Ralph Lauren (RL)
Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL) is a globally recognized designer, marketer, and distributor of premium lifestyle products. The company operates across North America, Europe, Asia, and other international markets, offering a comprehensive range of goods that embody a distinctive American aesthetic. Founded in 1967, Ralph Lauren has built a strong brand presence synonymous with luxury and classic style.
The company's diverse product portfolio primarily includes men's, women's, and children's apparel, alongside an extensive array of accessories such as shoes, eyewear, watches, jewelry, and leather goods like handbags and luggage. Beyond fashion, Ralph Lauren extends its brand into home products, offering bed and bath lines, furniture, lighting, and tabletop items, as well as a variety of men's and women's fragrances. Uniquely, the company also operates exclusive restaurant concepts, including The Polo Bar in New York City and RL Restaurant in Chicago, further enhancing its lifestyle brand experience.
Ralph Lauren reaches its customers through a multi-channel distribution strategy. It sells products wholesale to major department stores, specialty stores, and golf pro shops. Additionally, the company has a significant direct-to-consumer presence, operating hundreds of its own retail stores, concession-based shop-within-shops, and robust digital commerce platforms. This extensive network allows Ralph Lauren to cater to a broad base of consumers seeking its iconic brands, such as Ralph Lauren Collection, Polo Ralph Lauren, Double RL, and Lauren Ralph Lauren.
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An American Hermès.
Like Williams Sonoma or Restoration Hardware, but also a major fashion house for high-end American apparel, accessories, and fragrances.
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- Apparel: A wide range of men's, women's, and children's clothing, including various collections and brands.
- Accessories: A diverse collection of footwear, eyewear, watches, jewelry, scarves, hats, gloves, umbrellas, belts, and leather goods like handbags and luggage.
- Home Furnishings and Decor: Products for the home, including bed and bath lines, furniture, fabric, wallcoverings, lighting, tabletop items, floor coverings, and giftware.
- Fragrances: A selection of men's and women's fragrances, marketed under various brand names and collections.
- Restaurant Services: Operates fine dining restaurants and coffee shop concepts, providing hospitality experiences.
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Ralph Lauren (symbol: RL) sells its products through a dual model, both to other businesses (wholesale) and directly to consumers (DTC). Given the extensive number of directly operated retail stores (548) and concession-based shop-within-shops (650), along with its digital commerce sites, a significant portion of its sales are made directly to individuals. Therefore, we will describe up to three categories of customers that it serves directly.
The major customer categories for Ralph Lauren are:
- Affluent and Style-Conscious Individuals: This primary segment includes customers who appreciate timeless, sophisticated, and luxurious fashion. They are drawn to the premium and high-end offerings from brands like Ralph Lauren Collection, Ralph Lauren Purple Label, Polo Ralph Lauren, and Lauren Ralph Lauren, seeking quality apparel, accessories, home goods, and fragrances that embody classic American elegance and a refined lifestyle.
- Lifestyle-Oriented Consumers with an Active/Preppy Bent: This category targets individuals who embrace a preppy, sporty, and aspirational lifestyle. Brands such as Polo Ralph Lauren, Polo Golf Ralph Lauren, Ralph Lauren Golf, and RLX Ralph Lauren cater to customers interested in activewear, performance gear, and casual yet refined attire suitable for sports, leisure, and upscale social events.
- Consumers Seeking Accessible Luxury and Quality Staples: This broader group includes individuals who are attracted to the brand's iconic status and quality at various price points. They might purchase everyday wear from Polo Ralph Lauren, Lauren Ralph Lauren, or explore contemporary styles from Club Monaco. This segment values brand recognition, enduring style, and quality for their wardrobes and homes.
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Ralph Lauren, Executive Chairman and Chief Creative Officer
Ralph Lauren founded the Ralph Lauren Corporation in 1967. He stepped down as CEO in September 2015 but remains the Executive Chairman and Chief Creative Officer.
Patrice Louvet, President and Chief Executive Officer
Patrice Louvet joined Ralph Lauren in July 2017 as President and Chief Executive Officer. Before joining Ralph Lauren, he spent nearly three decades in leadership roles at Procter & Gamble (P&G). His roles at P&G included group president for global beauty and hair care units from 2015 to 2017. He also previously served as a naval officer in the French Navy. Louvet is also on the board of Bacardi Limited and Danone, and is part of the CEO Advisory Council of the Fashion Pact.
Justin Picicci, Chief Financial Officer
Justin Picicci was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Ralph Lauren Corporation effective May 23, 2024. He joined the company in 2006 and has held various senior finance leadership positions within Ralph Lauren, including Enterprise CFO, Asia Pacific CFO, Global Company Controller and Head of Procurement, and North America CFO.
David Lauren, Chief Branding and Innovation Officer & Vice Chairman
David Lauren, son of founder Ralph Lauren, joined the company in 2000. He is responsible for overseeing the company's innovation, global marketing, public relations, advertising, digital content, digital design, and brand communications teams. He became a member of the Board of Directors in August 2013 and was named Vice Chairman of the Board in 2016. He also serves as the President of the Ralph Lauren Corporate Foundation.
Halide Alagöz, Chief Product & Merchandising Officer
Halide Alagöz joined Ralph Lauren in 2016. She is responsible for the company's end-to-end product life cycle. Prior to Ralph Lauren, she spent 18 years at H&M, where she managed supply chain operations and focused on sustainability initiatives.
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Sensitivity to Fashion Trends and Consumer Preferences: As a designer, marketer, and distributor of lifestyle products including apparel, home goods, and fragrances, Ralph Lauren's business is highly susceptible to shifts in fashion trends and consumer preferences across its diverse brand portfolio. Failure to anticipate or adapt to evolving tastes and macroeconomic factors affecting discretionary spending could lead to decreased demand for its products, increased inventory, and reduced sales and profitability.
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Reliance on Brand Image and Reputation: Ralph Lauren's extensive portfolio of brands, such as Ralph Lauren Collection, Polo Ralph Lauren, and Lauren Ralph Lauren, as well as its restaurant concepts, are built upon a strong brand image and reputation. Any negative publicity, product quality issues, ethical concerns in its supply chain, or ineffective marketing campaigns could damage consumer perception, erode brand loyalty, and significantly impact sales across its global operations.
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Intense Competition: The markets for apparel, accessories, home products, and fragrances are highly competitive and fragmented. Ralph Lauren faces competition from numerous international, national, and local brands, including other luxury fashion houses, mass-market retailers, and emerging direct-to-consumer businesses. This intense competition could put pressure on pricing, market share, and require continuous investment in product innovation and marketing, potentially impacting profitability.
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The rapid growth and mainstream adoption of online re-commerce platforms for luxury and premium goods represent a clear emerging threat. These platforms, such as The RealReal and Vestiaire Collective, enable consumers to purchase authenticated second-hand Ralph Lauren products, including apparel and accessories, often at a significant discount. This trend directly competes with the sale of new items, potentially reducing demand for Ralph Lauren's primary product offerings and altering traditional consumer purchasing behavior in the luxury and premium market.
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The addressable markets for Ralph Lauren's main products and services are substantial across various global and regional segments.
Apparel
The global luxury clothing market was valued at an estimated USD 274.8 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 364.4 billion by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.8%. North America and Europe are identified as the largest markets for luxury clothing.
Home Products
The global luxury home decor market reached an estimated USD 178.06 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow significantly to USD 618.07 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 16.93%. In 2024, North America held 34% of the global luxury home decor market share, followed by Asia Pacific at 28%, and Europe at 26%.
Fragrances
The luxury perfume market size globally is estimated at USD 56.28 billion in 2026 and is expected to reach USD 86.23 billion by 2031, with an 8.91% CAGR during the forecast period. In 2025, Europe held 28.95% of the market share, while Asia-Pacific is experiencing the fastest growth. North America also commanded the largest revenue share of 37.3% in the luxury perfume market in 2025.
Restaurant Concepts
For fine dining, the global fine dining restaurants market is projected to be USD 191.11 billion in 2025 and is expected to grow to USD 289.87 billion by 2031, at a CAGR of 7.19%. Regarding coffee shops, the global coffee shops and cafes market size is projected at USD 67.49 billion in 2025 and is anticipated to reach USD 109.06 billion by 2034. North America leads in terms of the number of café outlets, holding approximately 35% of the global share, followed by Europe at about 27%.
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Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL) anticipates several key drivers to fuel its revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, primarily outlined in its "Next Great Chapter: Drive" strategic plan. These drivers focus on brand elevation, market expansion, and enhanced consumer engagement.
The expected drivers of future revenue growth include:
- Global Expansion and Brand Elevation: Ralph Lauren aims to expand and elevate its lifestyle brand positioning globally. This strategy focuses on enhancing quality, attracting new customers, and boosting customer loyalty, thereby increasing customer lifetime value. The company plans to expand into high-growth markets, particularly in Asia (with China showing significant growth), while also strengthening its presence in existing core regions.
- Driving Core Products and Expanding into Underdeveloped Categories: The company intends to continue driving sales of its iconic core products, which currently account for a significant portion of its revenue, while simultaneously pursuing accelerated growth in high-potential, underdeveloped categories that align with evolving consumer lifestyles.
- Winning in Key Cities with a Digitally-Led Consumer Ecosystem: Ralph Lauren plans to scale a cohesive, digitally-led ecosystem across 30 major global cities and begin developing this model in an additional 20 cities. This involves accelerating digital transformation through investments in AI, data analytics, personalization, mobile capabilities, and omnichannel experiences. Expanding direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels, which have demonstrated strong growth, is a key part of this strategy.
- Strategic Pricing and Average Unit Retail (AUR) Growth: Consistent increases in average unit retail (AUR) prices, driven by reduced discounting, strong full-price demand, and a favorable product mix, are expected to contribute to revenue growth and gross margin expansion. AI-driven analytics are utilized to optimize pricing strategies.
- Leveraging Technology and Data Analytics: Ralph Lauren is bolstering its growth strategy through advanced technologies, including artificial intelligence (AI) and data analytics. These capabilities are being integrated across the business to improve demand forecasting, optimize pricing strategies, enhance inventory planning, and support overall digital transformation efforts, ultimately leading to more efficient operations and increased sales.
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Share Repurchases
- Ralph Lauren's Board of Directors authorized a new $1.5 billion stock repurchase program on May 22, 2025.
- The company repurchased approximately $350 million of Class A Common Stock during fiscal year 2026, as of February 5, 2026.
- Annual share repurchases were $480.9 million in fiscal year 2025 and $449.7 million in fiscal year 2024.
Share Issuance
- The number of outstanding shares for Ralph Lauren has shown a decline over the last few fiscal years, indicating net repurchases rather than issuances.
- Shares outstanding were 61.5 million at the end of fiscal year 2025, down from 63.3 million in fiscal year 2024 and 65.6 million in fiscal year 2023.
Outbound Investments
- On January 31, 2022, Ralph Lauren announced a strategic limited partnership with Franklin Venture Partners to invest in innovative consumer technology companies, with a focus on women-led businesses.
- This partnership builds upon a prior minority investment made in Natural Fiber Welding, Inc. (NFW), a startup specializing in sustainable material science.
Capital Expenditures
- Ralph Lauren's capital expenditures were approximately $216.2 million in fiscal year 2025 and $164.8 million in fiscal year 2024.
- For fiscal year 2026, the company plans capital expenditures of approximately 4% to 5% of its revenue.
- Capital expenditures are focused on advancing digital and omnichannel expansion, upgrading technology, and enhancing the customer experience to support the company's "Next Great Chapter: Accelerate" plan.
Peer Outperformance in Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RL | Ralph Lauren | 9.6% | 22.3x | 24.0% | 259.6% | 240.2% | — |
| TPR | Tapestry | 7.3% | 16.8x | 32.9% | 416.8% | 263.9% | +24pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education Services | 14 | -14.8% | 35.2% | 48.5% | CVSA 240% · GHC 115% · LRN 112% |
| Homebuilding | 17 | 5.9% | 30.8% | 30.1% | PHM 174% · TOL 158% · GRBK 156% |
| Automotive Retail | 17 | -3.6% | 15.6% | 14.9% | MUSA 192% · PAG 116% · ORLY 109% |
| Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines | 21 | 20.0% | 70.0% | 14.9% | RCL 282% · MAR 164% · HLT 155% |
| Home Improvement Retail | 5 | -2.1% | 8.9% | 5.6% | LOW 10% · HD 8% · FND -60% |
| Home Furnishings | 3 | 6.8% | 82.0% | 1.7% | SGI 57% · MHK -10% |
| Footwear | 9 | 83.4% | 101.1% | -10.2% | DECK 28% · SHOO -5% · CROX -10% |
| Restaurants | 36 | 4.9% | -1.1% | -17.9% | EAT 357% · CAKE 174% · TXRH 121% |
| Specialized Consumer Services | 10 | -11.0% | 32.7% | -22.0% | FTDR 186% · HRB 142% · SCI 20% |
| Distributors | 4 | -3.9% | -14.3% | -23.7% | ARMK 108% · GPC 8% · POOL -55% |
| Computer & Electronics Retail | 3 | 41.6% | 91.8% | -24.9% | BBY 1% · GME -50% |
| Leisure Products | 14 | -16.8% | -2.4% | -32.7% | GOLF 61% · HAS 50% · BC -10% |
| Leisure Facilities | 12 | 22.0% | 9.1% | -35.1% | OSW 172% · LTH 142% · PLNT -35% |
| Household Appliances | 18 | 41.6% | 20.6% | -38.2% | WHR -82% |
| Broadline Retail | 12 | 1.8% | 37.9% | -43.8% | EBAY 79% · AMZN 49% · OLLI 35% |
| Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods ← | 29 | 18.9% | 25.2% | -46.3% | TPR 264% · RL 240% · KTB 63% |
| Apparel Retail | 27 | -2.8% | 12.8% | -47.5% | ANF 232% · VSXY 125% · TJX 112% |
| Casinos & Gaming | 21 | -27.7% | -16.1% | -51.8% | RRR 29% · BYD 28% · LVS 5% |
| Automotive Parts & Equipment | 37 | -11.0% | -16.5% | -52.4% | GTX 197% · PATK 76% · ALV 39% |
| Other Specialty Retail | 25 | -0.8% | -6.1% | -56.0% | ULTA 68% · ASO 57% · ARHS 33% |
| Consumer Electronics | 11 | -25.8% | -17.1% | -79.5% | GRMN 123% · SONO -51% |
| Automobile Manufacturers | 9 | -60.6% | -42.4% | -86.1% | GM 60% · TSLA 11% · F -16% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 56.80 |
| Mkt Cap | 8.2 |
| Rev LTM | 8,538 |
| Op Inc LTM | 718 |
| FCF LTM | 715 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 675 |
| CFO LTM | 875 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 844 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | -3.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.8% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 31.5% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 21.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 8.2 |
| P/S | 0.9 |
| P/Op Inc | 13.5 |
| P/EBIT | 13.5 |
| P/E | 16.9 |
| P/CFO | 9.9 |
| Total Yield | 5.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.9% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.9% |
| D/E | 0.6 |
| Net D/E | 0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 15.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 23.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 17.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 39.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 154.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 21.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 30.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 17.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 35.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 89.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | 8,114 | 7,079 | 6,631 | 6,444 | 6,218 |
| Total | 8,114 | 7,079 | 6,631 | 6,444 | 6,218 |
| $ Mil | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WHOLESALE | 822 | 943 | 963 | 706 | 666 |
| RETAIL | 359 | 527 | 572 | 611 | 558 |
| LICENSING | 155 | 152 | 150 | 130 | 112 |
| Unallocated | -754 | -587 | -555 | -321 | -285 |
| Corporate | -12 | ||||
| Total | 582 | 1,035 | 1,130 | 1,127 | 1,039 |
| $ Mil | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WHOLESALE | 2,569 | 2,643 | 2,663 | 2,322 | 2,487 |
| RETAIL | 2,540 | 2,395 | 2,334 | 1,894 | 1,692 |
| Corporate | 916 | 973 | 1,009 | ||
| LICENSING | 188 | 197 | 198 | 230 | 229 |
| Unallocated | 871 | 895 | |||
| Total | 6,213 | 6,106 | 6,090 | 5,418 | 5,416 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $398.52 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 23.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/12/1997 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -3.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $364.51 | $366.22 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | 9.3% | 8.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 33.0% | 36.3% |
| Downside Capture | 67.89 | 116.41 |
| Upside Capture | 55.40 | 126.08 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 49.2% | 47.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.82 | 0.83 | 0.47 | 0.91 | 1.20 | 1.29 |
| Up Beta | -0.92 | -0.13 | -0.05 | 0.43 | 1.27 | 1.27 |
| Down Beta | 1.00 | 1.62 | 1.92 | 1.22 | 1.16 | 1.24 |
| Up Capture | 188% | 125% | 29% | 98% | 138% | 324% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 15 | 27 | 33 | 62 | 122 | 393 |
| Down Capture | 11% | 12% | 13% | 90% | 109% | 105% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 16 | 31 | 64 | 129 | 359 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with RL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RL | 28.0% | 36.3% | 0.73 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 3.4% | 19.9% | 0.04 | 55.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.3% | 13.7% | 0.65 | 49.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 3.7% | 28.8% | 0.12 | 19.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 38.2% | 21.3% | 1.42 | -32.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.7% | 14.3% | 0.65 | 39.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -25.3% | 43.6% | -0.55 | 19.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with RL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RL | 27.6% | 37.1% | 0.74 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 4.2% | 24.2% | 0.13 | 59.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.8% | 17.3% | 0.51 | 60.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.8% | 19.1% | 0.75 | 8.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.0% | 19.6% | 0.29 | 4.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.5% | 18.9% | -0.03 | 44.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.4% | 51.6% | 0.27 | 26.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with RL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RL | 17.3% | 38.8% | 0.53 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 13.1% | 22.3% | 0.53 | 56.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 18.0% | 0.72 | 55.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.1% | 16.5% | 0.60 | 1.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.6% | 18.1% | 0.33 | 14.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.1% | 20.7% | 0.25 | 44.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.0% | 66.3% | 1.00 | 15.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 11/10/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2026 | -7.3% | ||
| 8/6/2026 | 4.0% | 4.1% | -9.6% |
| 5/21/2026 | 13.9% | 12.6% | 24.8% |
| 2/5/2026 | -4.5% | 1.4% | -4.6% |
| 11/6/2025 | -0.6% | 7.4% | 12.5% |
| 8/7/2025 | -6.5% | -0.3% | 3.0% |
| 5/22/2025 | 1.3% | 1.4% | -1.2% |
| 2/6/2025 | 9.7% | 9.6% | -6.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 16 | 13 |
| # Negative | 9 | 7 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 4.0% | 7.0% | 12.0% |
| Median Negative | -4.8% | -2.0% | -7.6% |
| Max Positive | 16.8% | 20.8% | 24.8% |
| Max Negative | -9.7% | -8.4% | -13.4% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2026 | -7.3% | ||
| 8/6/2026 | 4.0% | 4.1% | -9.6% |
| 5/21/2026 | 13.9% | 12.6% | 24.8% |
| 2/5/2026 | -4.5% | 1.4% | -4.6% |
| 11/6/2025 | -0.6% | 7.4% | 12.5% |
| 8/7/2025 | -6.5% | -0.3% | 3.0% |
| 5/22/2025 | 1.3% | 1.4% | -1.2% |
| 2/6/2025 | 9.7% | 9.6% | -6.6% |
| 11/7/2024 | 6.6% | 1.3% | 10.9% |
| 8/7/2024 | -3.4% | -1.5% | 5.1% |
| 5/23/2024 | 3.3% | 12.9% | 12.0% |
| 2/8/2024 | 16.8% | 20.8% | 19.6% |
| 11/8/2023 | 3.2% | 6.7% | 16.2% |
| 8/10/2023 | -4.8% | -8.4% | -9.0% |
| 5/25/2023 | 5.3% | -2.0% | 9.7% |
| 2/9/2023 | 0.5% | 5.6% | -3.2% |
| 11/10/2022 | 5.8% | 10.9% | 19.1% |
| 8/9/2022 | -4.3% | -2.7% | -8.6% |
| 5/24/2022 | 0.2% | 11.1% | 2.6% |
| 2/3/2022 | 3.5% | 11.9% | 2.1% |
| 11/2/2021 | -9.7% | -0.6% | -10.3% |
| 8/3/2021 | 6.1% | 2.3% | -1.6% |
| 5/20/2021 | -7.0% | -5.3% | -13.4% |
| 2/4/2021 | 2.5% | 6.6% | 16.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 16 | 13 |
| # Negative | 9 | 7 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 4.0% | 7.0% | 12.0% |
| Median Negative | -4.8% | -2.0% | -7.6% |
| Max Positive | 16.8% | 20.8% | 24.8% |
| Max Negative | -9.7% | -8.4% | -13.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/21/2026 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/22/2025 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/23/2024 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/25/2023 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/21/2026 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/22/2025 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/23/2024 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/25/2023 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/24/2022 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/20/2021 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/04/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/27/2020 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/06/2020 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 11/6/2026Latest: Q2 2027 Earnings Reported 11/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2027 Constant Currency Revenue Growth | Reported | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | -2.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 5.5% for Q2 2027 | |
| Q3 2027 Foreign Currency Revenue Growth Impact | Reported | -1.0% | -0.75% | -0.5% | ||||
| Q3 2027 Operating Margin Expansion, Constant Currency | Reported | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | -0.3% | Lower New | Guidance: 0.9% for Q2 2027 | |
| Q3 2027 Effective Tax Rate | Reported | 23.0% | 23.5% | 24.0% | 4.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 19.5% for Q2 2027 | |
| 2027 Constant Currency Revenue Growth | Reported | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 5.5% for 2027 | |
| 2027 Foreign Currency Revenue Growth Impact | Reported | -0.6% | -0.5% | -0.4% | ||||
| 2027 53rd Week Revenue Growth Contribution | Reported | 1.0% | ||||||
| 2027 Operating Margin Expansion, Constant Currency | Reported | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | Raised | Guidance: 0.7% for 2027 | |
| 2027 Effective Tax Rate | Reported | 21.0% | 21.5% | 22.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 21.5% for 2027 | |
| 2027 Capital Expenditures % of Revenue | Reported | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 4.5% for 2027 | |
Prior: Q1 2027 Earnings Reported 8/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2027 Revenue Growth | Reported | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | ||||
| Q2 2027 Operating Margin Expansion | Reported | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | ||||
| Q2 2027 Tax Rate | Reported | 19.0% | 19.5% | 20.0% | ||||
| 2027 Revenue Growth | Reported | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 22.2% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 4.5% for 2027 |
| 2027 Operating Margin Expansion | Reported | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | Raised | Guidance: 0.5% for 2027 | |
| 2027 Tax Rate | Reported | 21.0% | 21.5% | 22.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 21.5% for 2027 | |
| 2027 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.05 for 2027 | |
Q4 2026 Earnings Reported 5/21/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2027 Revenue Growth | Reported | 4.0% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 30.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 5.0% for Q4 2026 | |
| Q1 2027 Operating Margin Expansion | Reported | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.0% | Higher New | Guidance: -1.0% for Q4 2026 | |
| Q1 2027 Tax Rate | Reported | 22.0% | 22.5% | 23.0% | 2.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 20.0% for Q4 2026 | |
| 2027 Revenue Growth | Reported | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | -57.1% | Lower New | Guidance: 10.5% for 2026 | |
| 2027 Operating Margin Expansion | Reported | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | -0.7% | Lower New | Guidance: 1.2% for 2026 | |
| 2027 Tax Rate | Reported | 21.0% | 21.5% | 22.0% | 1.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 20.0% for 2026 | |
| 2027 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.0% | Same New | Guidance: 0.05 for 2026 | |
Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 2/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | 5.0% | ||||||
| Q4 2026 Operating Margin Change | Reported | -1.2% | -1.0% | |||||
| 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | 7.0% | 10.5% | 75.0% | 4.5% | Raised | Guidance: 6.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Operating Margin Expansion | Reported | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 0.7% for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Effective Tax Rate | Reported | 19.0% | 20.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 20.0% for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.05 for 2026 | ||
Insider Activity
Updated 8/20/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ranftl, Robert P | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 8202026 | 377.81 | 2,901 | 1,096,031 | 2,743,290 | Form |
| 2 | Alagoz, Halide | Chief Product & Merch. Officer | Direct | Sell | 8142026 | 402.77 | 6,559 | 2,641,768 | 7,592,617 | Form |
| 3 | Ranftl, Robert P | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 6052026 | 359.56 | 6,500 | 2,337,140 | 3,225,613 | Form |
| 4 | Lauren, Ralph | Exec. Chair, Chief Creative | Trust | Sell | 5282026 | 378.25 | 263,654 | 99,727,126 | 13,561,776 | Form |
| 5 | Alagoz, Halide | Chief Product & Merch. Officer | Direct | Sell | 3052026 | 362.00 | 1,120 | 405,440 | 7,642,906 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ranftl, Robert P | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 8202026 | 377.81 | 2,901 | 1,096,031 | 2,743,290 | Form |
| 2 | Alagoz, Halide | Chief Product & Merch. Officer | Direct | Sell | 8142026 | 402.77 | 6,559 | 2,641,768 | 7,592,617 | Form |
| 3 | Ranftl, Robert P | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 6052026 | 359.56 | 6,500 | 2,337,140 | 3,225,613 | Form |
| 4 | Lauren, Ralph | Exec. Chair, Chief Creative | Trust | Sell | 5282026 | 378.25 | 263,654 | 99,727,126 | 13,561,776 | Form |
| 5 | Alagoz, Halide | Chief Product & Merch. Officer | Direct | Sell | 3052026 | 362.00 | 1,120 | 405,440 | 7,642,906 | Form |
| 6 | Louvet, Patrice | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 2112026 | 354.22 | 47,000 | 16,648,555 | 30,304,621 | Form |
| 7 | Alagoz, Halide | Chief Product Officer | Direct | Sell | 12032025 | 366.00 | 1,882 | 688,812 | 8,137,278 | Form |
| 8 | Alagoz, Halide | Chief Product Officer | Direct | Sell | 9052025 | 317.00 | 2,337 | 740,829 | 7,644,455 | Form |
| 9 | Alagoz, Halide | Chief Product Officer | Direct | Sell | 8282025 | 295.00 | 5,282 | 1,558,190 | 7,803,340 | Form |
| 10 | Ranftl, Robert P | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 8202025 | 285.21 | 4,206 | 1,199,593 | 2,556,052 | Form |
| 11 | Ranftl, Robert P | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 8202025 | 280.21 | 7,350 | 2,059,543 | 3,689,805 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 10, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
RL Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The brand elevation strategy is successfully driving margins to five-year highs, supported by excellent management and a strong balance sheet. While near-term growth is decelerating due to macro pressures in Europe, powerful momentum in Asia and disciplined inventory control provide significant buffers. The current outlook suggests a healthy normalization, not a breakdown of the core strategy.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Brand-Driven Cyclical(Number of Units Sold) x (Average Unit Retail) Average Unit Retail (AUR) growth and favorable mix shift towards higher-margin channels (DTC) and geographies (Asia).
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests the strategy is resilient, trading lower-quality sales for higher-margin, more durable demand from a less price-sensitive consumer.
- Average Unit Retail (AUR) grew 9% in the latest quarter, on top of 12% growth last year.
- Asia segment revenue grew 28.2%, with China sales up over 35%.
- Inventory declined 8.7% year-over-year while revenue grew 9.1%.
- Trailing-twelve-month operating margin expanded 2.6 percentage points to a five-year peak of 17.8%.
- The company added 1.7 million new direct-to-consumer customers in the latest quarter.
PRIMARY RISK
Slowing growth in key metrics and a lowered near-term outlook suggest the brand's momentum is fading and may not be resilient to a broader consumer spending downturn.
- Q3 revenue growth is guided to slow to 3%-4%, a sharp drop from 9.1% in Q2.
- AUR growth has decelerated for two consecutive quarters, from 12% to 9%.
- The full-year revenue outlook for Europe was lowered due to 'increased pressure on consumer traffic'.
- Management is planning for a further slowdown in AUR growth to 'mid-single-digits' in Q3.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Comparable Store Sales Growth | 10% year-over-year growth in the latest quarter (Q2 FY2027) - Decelerating | Comparable sales growth has remained strong and in the double-digits for the past two quarters, but the rate of growth is decelerating from a high of 17% two quarters ago. The latest quarter's 10% growth was driven by 11% growth in digital commerce and 10% in brick and mortar stores. |
| Average Unit Retail (AUR) Growth | 9% year-over-year growth in the latest quarter (Q2 FY2027) - Decelerating | AUR growth, a key pillar of the company's brand elevation strategy, has slowed significantly from the mid-teens rates seen in the prior two quarters. Management noted they are lapping an exceptionally strong 18% increase in the prior-year holiday period and are guiding for mid-single-digit AUR growth for Q3. |
| New Customer Acquisition (DTC) | 1.7 million (Q2 FY2027) | Measures the company's ability to attract new consumers to its direct-to-consumer channels. Strong acquisition, particularly of younger customers, indicates growing brand relevance and a foundation for future revenue growth. |
| Inventory vs. Revenue Growth Divergence | -17.8 percentage points (Q2 FY2027) | Compares the year-over-year growth rate of inventory to that of revenue. A significant negative divergence, where revenue grows much faster than inventory (or inventory declines), signals strong demand, efficient inventory management, and a reduced risk of future markdowns. |
Strategic Repositioning vs. Cyclical Slowdown
BULL VIEW
Management is skillfully navigating a macro slowdown, proven by raising full-year guidance, strong Asian growth, and excellent inventory control. The near-term caution is prudent management, not a strategic failure.
CORE TENSION
Can strong execution and Asia's 28% growth offset decelerating pricing power and European headwinds, which prompted a Q3 guidance cut?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The evidence is balanced but favors the bull view. Management's strong say-do record and superb inventory management provide credibility, suggesting they can navigate the guided slowdown.
BEAR VIEW
The lowered Q3 guidance and European weakness are the first signs that the brand elevation strategy is cracking under macro pressure. The full-year guidance raise is optimistic and likely to be revised down.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
11/11/2026 | Fossil Earnings Report Watch: Peer Fossil (FOSL) is scheduled to report earnings. |
12/1/2026 | PVH Earnings Report Watch: Peer PVH (PVH) is scheduled to report earnings. |
2/3/2027 | Softer Near-Term Guidance Watch: Q3 revenue and margin results versus the lowered guidance, and the market's reaction to the Q4 outlook. |
2/3/2027 | European Macro Headwinds Watch: Europe segment revenue in the Q3 report and commentary from peers VFC (1/26) and TPR (2/3). |
2/3/2027 | Tariff Margin Pressure Watch: Q4 gross margin guidance provided on the next earnings call and commentary on mitigation strategies. |
2/3/2027 | Q3 Earnings Report Watch: The company will report Q3 Fiscal 2027 results and provide guidance for the fourth quarter. |
April 3, 2027 | Fiscal Year-End Watch: The company's fiscal year 2027, a 53-week period, is scheduled to end. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-11-05 | Q2 FY27 Mixed Outlook Details: The company raised its full-year fiscal 2027 revenue forecast but provided a softer-than-expected outlook for the third quarter. The stock reacted negatively, falling 9.0% post-earnings. | -8.6% $412.06 -> $376.56 |
2026-10-15 | Executive Pay Tied to AI Details: News reports in October indicated the company tied executive payouts to AI, signaling a shift in strategic priorities toward technology and analytics. | +2.7% $375.27 -> $385.50 |
2026-09-11 | Quarterly Dividend Declared Details: The company announced its regular quarterly dividend, continuing its capital return program. | +1.4% $335.71 -> $340.46 |
2026-08-06 | Q1 FY27 Earnings Beat Details: The company posted its fourth consecutive quarterly EPS beat. The stock had a two-day reaction of +4.0% around the August 6, 2026 earnings call. | +3.9% $379.70 -> $394.41 |
2026-05-21 | Q4 FY26 Earnings Beat Details: The company reported Q4 revenue that beat expectations, and its stock had a two-day reaction of +15.0% around the May 21, 2026 earnings call. | +14.7% $327.50 -> $375.79 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: RL trades at roughly 32% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 14% for the S&P 500 (2.3x the market). A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
TPR - a business partner
Higher-Margin Peera business partner operates with a significantly higher trailing-twelve-month operating margin of 24.5% versus Ralph Lauren's 17.8%, suggesting a more profitable business model in the accessible luxury space.
a business partner - a business partner
Value-Segment Exposurea business partner serves a more price-sensitive consumer, as Ralph Lauren strategically reduces its off-price exposure. This offers a different risk profile within the broader apparel market.
A brand-driven consumer cyclical successfully executing a premiumization strategy, trading lower-quality sales for higher margins and attracting a new generation of customers.
Ralph Lauren is in the second year of its 'Next Great Chapter: Drive' plan, which centers on elevating its brand to command higher prices and attract a more resilient, less price-sensitive consumer. This strategy is proving successful, with consistent growth in Average Unit Retail (AUR) and expanding margins at or near five-year highs. The company is demonstrating strong momentum in Asia, particularly China, which serves as a key growth engine, while managing a more challenging environment in Europe and delivering healthy results in its largest market, North America.
Sustained high-single-digit or better AUR growth, continued strong new customer acquisition (especially younger cohorts), and market share gains in key regions like Asia would confirm the brand elevation thesis.
A stall or reversal in AUR growth, a significant drop in new customer acquisition, or margin compression due to a return to promotional activity would damage the thesis.
Quarter-to-quarter volatility in wholesale shipment timing, which management notes can shift, or short-term stock reactions to earnings reports that don't reflect underlying brand health.
Repricing Catalyst
The primary catalyst is continued outperformance on revenue and margins, leading to further upward revisions to full-year guidance, which the company has done consistently.
Ralph Lauren — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods Resources |
| Vogue Business |
| Jing Daily |
| Luxury Daily |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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