Fossil (FOSL)
Market Price (2/6/2026): $3.245 | Market Cap: $169.9 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Footwear
Fossil (FOSL)
Market Price (2/6/2026): $3.245Market Cap: $169.9 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Footwear
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Fashion-Forward Wearables, and Accessible Premium Accessories. | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -109% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 141% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 14.64, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -13%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -16%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.1% | |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.0%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.3% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -44% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 108% | ||
| Key risksFOSL key risks include [1] its core traditional watch business being severely impacted by competition from smartwatches, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Fashion-Forward Wearables, and Accessible Premium Accessories. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -109% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 14.64, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 141% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -13%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -16%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.1% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.0%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.3% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -44% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 108% |
| Key risksFOSL key risks include [1] its core traditional watch business being severely impacted by competition from smartwatches, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Successful Debt Restructuring
Fossil Group successfully progressed with the restructuring plan for its $150 million 7.00% Senior Notes due November 30, 2026. The High Court of Justice of England and Wales granted a sanction order for this restructuring plan on November 10, 2025, which aimed to cancel the existing 2026 notes and issue new secured notes due in 2029. This action was highlighted by CEO Franco Fogliato as a crucial step in addressing upcoming debt maturity and providing additional liquidity to bolster the company's turnaround initiatives, thereby de-risking the company's financial position. This built upon earlier efforts to refinance key debt obligations well ahead of their 2026 maturities, providing significant runway for management's turnaround efforts.
2. Improved Profitability Metrics Amidst Turnaround
The company demonstrated progress in its multi-year turnaround plan, which includes refocusing on core brands, prioritizing profitable channels, and rightsizing its cost structure. This resulted in improved profitability metrics, such as a significant expansion in gross margin. For instance, in Q2 2025, the gross margin expanded by 490 basis points to 57.5% year-over-year, despite a decline in net sales. The strategic exit from the smartwatch category and optimization of its retail store portfolio, including closing approximately 50 stores, while contributing to sales declines, were key factors in these margin improvements and operational efficiencies.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 56.7% change in FOSL stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 55.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 2052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 2.08 | 3.26 | 56.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,084 | 1,066 | -1.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.1 | 0.2 | 55.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 54 | 52 | 2.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 56.7% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 2/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FOSL | 56.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | -0.7% | 36.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | -2.0% | 38.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 92.9% change in FOSL stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 99.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 2052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1.69 | 3.26 | 92.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,123 | 1,066 | -5.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.1 | 0.2 | 99.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 53 | 52 | 1.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 92.9% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 2/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FOSL | 92.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.5% | 27.9% |
| Sector (XLY) | 6.3% | 27.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 95.2% change in FOSL stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 120.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312025 | 2052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1.67 | 3.26 | 95.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,224 | 1,066 | -12.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.1 | 0.2 | 120.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 53 | 52 | 1.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 95.2% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 2/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FOSL | 95.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.6% | 31.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | 1.9% | 32.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -42.6% change in FOSL stock from 1/31/2023 to 2/5/2026 was primarily driven by a -40.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 1312023 | 2052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.68 | 3.26 | -42.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,788 | 1,066 | -40.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.2 | 0.2 | -2.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 52 | 52 | -1.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -42.6% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 2/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FOSL | -42.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 72.9% | 26.2% |
| Sector (XLY) | 61.8% | 28.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FOSL Return | 19% | -58% | -66% | 14% | 125% | -10% | -61% |
| Peers Return | 22% | -29% | 37% | 77% | -24% | 1% | 62% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 1% | 83% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FOSL Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 42% | 50% | 42% | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 40% | 60% | 55% | 43% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FOSL Max Drawdown | -1% | -67% | -75% | -47% | -46% | -10% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -8% | -43% | -9% | -9% | -42% | -5% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: WWW, WEYS, ONON, DECK, BIRK.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/5/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | FOSL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -95.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 2070.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -68.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 212.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 119 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -79.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 377.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 209 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -75.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 306.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 545 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to WWW, WEYS, ONON, DECK, BIRK
In The Past
Fossil's stock fell -95.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/27/2021. A -95.4% loss requires a 2070.6% gain to breakeven.
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About Fossil (FOSL)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Fossil (FOSL) succinctly:
- Fossil is like Gap, but for watches and fashion accessories.
- Fossil is like Luxottica for fashion watches and accessories.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the major products of Fossil (FOSL):- Watches: A wide range of wristwatches, including traditional analog, hybrid smartwatches, and full smartwatches, under their own brand and various licensed brands.
- Jewelry: Fashion jewelry items such as necklaces, bracelets, earrings, and rings, primarily under the Fossil brand.
- Handbags & Wallets: A collection of leather handbags, totes, crossbody bags, and wallets for men and women.
- Small Leather Goods: Accessories like belts, card cases, and keychains, often made from leather.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Fossil (symbol: FOSL) operates with a hybrid business model, distributing its products through both wholesale channels to other companies and direct-to-consumer channels to individuals.
Major Customers (Business-to-Business - B2B)
While Fossil primarily sells to other companies through its wholesale operations (which account for a larger portion of its revenue compared to direct-to-consumer sales), its annual reports consistently state that no single customer accounted for more than 10% of its net sales in recent fiscal years (2020, 2021, 2022). Therefore, there are no specific "major customer companies" that can be individually identified by name based on standard financial reporting thresholds.
However, Fossil's wholesale customers are generally diverse global retailers and distributors. These typically include:
- Department Stores: Large retail chains that stock a wide variety of consumer goods, including fashion accessories.
- Specialty Retail Stores: Independent or chain stores focused specifically on categories like watches, jewelry, or fashion accessories.
- International Distributors: Companies responsible for distributing and selling Fossil's products within specific international markets where Fossil does not have a direct operational presence.
Major Customers (Direct-to-Consumer - B2C)
Fossil also has a significant direct-to-consumer business, selling directly to individuals through its own branded retail stores (Fossil, Skagen, WSI multi-brand stores) and various e-commerce websites. The categories of individual customers it serves include:
- Fashion-Conscious Consumers: Individuals who view watches, jewelry, and handbags as integral parts of their personal style. They are often trend-aware, appreciate distinctive design, and seek accessories that combine contemporary fashion with quality and accessible luxury.
- Modern Professionals and Everyday Users: Customers looking for stylish and functional accessories suitable for daily wear, whether in professional settings or for casual use. This group values brand reputation, durability, and may also be interested in the hybrid smartwatch offerings that blend traditional aesthetics with smart technology.
- Gift Purchasers: Consumers buying accessories as gifts for family, friends, or significant others for special occasions such as birthdays, holidays, or graduations. Fossil's wide range of products and brand recognition make them popular choices for thoughtful and well-received presents.
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Franco Fogliato, Chief Executive Officer and Director
Mr. Fogliato has served as Chief Executive Officer and Director of Fossil Group since September 2024. Prior to joining Fossil, he was the Chief Executive Officer and Director of Salomon. He also previously held roles as Executive Vice President of Global Omnichannel and Chief Executive Officer of Europe at Billabong Group. Earlier in his career, Mr. Fogliato held executive positions at The North Face.
Randy Greben, Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Greben has been the Chief Financial Officer of Fossil Group since March 2025. His previous experience includes serving as Chief Financial Officer for Casper Sleep, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer for Blue Apron, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer for ANN Inc., and Chief Financial Officer and General Manager at Quidsi.
Melissa Lowenkron, Chief Brand Officer
Ms. Lowenkron has served as Chief Brand Officer of Fossil Group since March 2023. Before this role, she was Senior Vice President/General Merchandising Manager for handbags, ladies' shoes, beauty, and jewelry at Neiman Marcus Group from 2018 to 2021. She also held the position of Senior Vice President/General Merchandising Manager for ready-to-wear, handbags, ladies' shoes, beauty, jewelry, men's, and kids' at Bergdorf Goodman, a subsidiary of Neiman Marcus Group, from 2014 to 2018.
Antonio Carriero, Chief Digital Information Officer and General Manager EMEA
Mr. Carriero has been the Chief Digital Information Officer and General Manager EMEA for Fossil Group since February 2025. Previously, he was the Chief Digital and Information Officer at Salomon. His career also includes experience at Breitling SA and Richemont Group.
Laks Lakshmanan, Chief Supply Chain Officer
Mr. Lakshmanan serves as the Chief Supply Chain Officer for Fossil Group.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The public company Fossil (FOSL) faces several significant risks to its business:
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Competition from Smartwatches and Evolving Consumer Preferences: Fossil's core business, traditional watches, has been severely impacted by the rise of smartwatches, particularly from tech giants like Apple and Samsung. Consumer preferences have significantly shifted towards wearable technologies, leading to a substantial decline in demand for Fossil's traditional watch products.
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Overall Declining Sales and Profitability Issues: Fossil has experienced a persistent decline in total revenues over the last decade, with sales plummeting significantly. The company has struggled to achieve meaningful profitability, reporting substantial net losses for several consecutive years. This decline extends across various product categories, including leathers, jewelry, and even smartwatches, despite efforts to integrate technology into its offerings.
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Financial Headwinds and Debt Restructuring: Due to ongoing business challenges, Fossil has faced considerable financial headwinds, including significant losses and a need for debt restructuring. The company recently refinanced a substantial amount of debt at higher interest rates, which adds further financial burden and complicates its path to a turnaround. Fossil has also been closing stores and undertaking other restructuring efforts to reduce operating expenses.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The increasing dominance of dedicated technology companies (such as Apple, Google with its Pixel Watch and Samsung with its Galaxy Watch) in the general-purpose smartwatch market is a clear emerging threat. This trend marginalizes fashion-focused smartwatch efforts and makes it exceedingly difficult for Fossil to compete effectively on technology, ecosystem integration, and brand relevance within this segment. While Fossil previously invested heavily in its Wear OS-based smartwatches, often leveraging its licensed fashion brands, the market has rapidly consolidated around tech giants that can outspend and out-innovate in terms of hardware, software, and ecosystem development. This has led to Fossil scaling back its smartwatch ambitions and experiencing declining sales in this segment, reflecting a struggle to maintain relevance against these technologically superior and ecosystem-driven competitors.
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The addressable markets for Fossil's main products and services are sized as follows:Global Market Sizes
- Watches: The global watch market was valued at USD 78.0 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 113.8 billion by 2033, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.25% from 2025 to 2033. The global luxury watch market was valued at USD 29.1 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 37.0 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 2.65% from 2025 to 2033.
- Jewelry: The global jewelry market size was valued at USD 371.41 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 566.86 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 4.81% from 2025 to 2033.
- Handbags: The global handbag market was valued at USD 56.46 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 104.24 billion by 2032, at a CAGR of 7.12% during the forecast period from 2025 to 2032. The global luxury handbag market was valued at USD 24.34 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 43.9 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 6.77% during the forecast period (2025-2033).
- Fashion Accessories (including small leather goods and sunglasses): The global fashion accessories market was valued at USD 1,079.60 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow from USD 1,143.52 billion in 2025 to USD 1,876.72 billion by 2032, exhibiting a CAGR of 7.33% during the forecast period. Another estimate indicates the market size was USD 1,640.06 billion in 2024, projected to grow at a CAGR of 14.56% from 2025 to 2032, reaching nearly USD 4,865.47 billion.
U.S. Market Sizes
- Watches: The United States watch market size reached USD 15.2 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 26.8 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 6.2% during 2025-2033. The U.S. luxury watch market was estimated at USD 4.751 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 9.799 billion by 2035, exhibiting a CAGR of 6.8% during the forecast period 2025-2035.
- Jewelry: The U.S. jewelry market was valued at USD 78.40 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 97.62 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 3.72% during the forecast period from 2025 to 2030.
- Handbags: The U.S. handbag market was valued at more than USD 12 billion in 2023 and is estimated to reach USD 17.6 billion by 2032. The U.S. luxury handbag market size was estimated at USD 11.48 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.7% from 2025 to 2030.
- Personal Accessories (includes bags, watches, and jewelry): The United States personal accessories market was valued at USD 97.47 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to grow to USD 158.04 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 8.45% during the forecast period.
- Fashion Accessories: The United States fashion accessories market size was valued at USD 254.48 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 505.69 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 7.89% during the forecast period (2025-2033).
AI Analysis | Feedback
Fossil Group (FOSL) is implementing a comprehensive turnaround strategy with several key initiatives expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, despite recent sales declines. These drivers are primarily focused on revitalizing its core business and enhancing operational efficiency.
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Brand Revitalization and Product Innovation in Core Categories: Fossil is focusing on re-energizing its core brands and product lines, particularly traditional watches and accessories. This includes "relaunching beloved lines such as the traditional watch collection, along with new product pipelines like the Neutra, Raquel, and Fossil Heritage series". The company is also engaging in "brand revitalization" through campaigns like "Made For This" and strategic collaborations with popular icons and brand ambassadors (e.g., Minecraft, Superman, Nick Jonas) to redefine its identity and attract younger consumers. This renewed emphasis on design and innovation within its core competencies, following the exit from the smartwatch segment, is expected to attract consumers and drive sales.
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Digital Transformation and E-commerce Expansion: A significant driver involves increasing investment in digital channels. Fossil is prioritizing "e-commerce and digital marketing to reach a wider audience". This includes a "renewed focus on channel profitability — especially through e-commerce and European distribution — has yielded better returns and more scalable revenue streams". Strategic initiatives like "digital enhancements" are anticipated to foster strong consumer engagement and improve top-line trends.
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Optimization of Global Wholesale Footprint and Channel Profitability: The company is streamlining its distribution and sales channels to improve profitability and efficiency. This strategy includes "optimizing our global wholesale footprint and driving channel profitability". Actions such as "transitioning select international markets to a distributor model" and implementing a "shift to a full-price selling model and reduced promotional activity" are expected to strengthen gross margins and enhance relationships with wholesale partners, ultimately contributing to more sustainable revenue streams.
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Expansion in Key Growth Markets: Fossil is targeting specific geographic markets for growth. The company "projects a decline in traditional watch sales, balanced by growth in the Fossil brand and markets like India". Management identifies potential in "reinvigorating core offerings while leveraging global license partners," which is "driving top-line growth and share gains across key regions and retail formats, especially in India and the United States".
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Enhanced Operational Efficiency and Margin Expansion (Supporting Reinvestment): While primarily cost-focused, the "Transform and Grow" (TAG) plan and subsequent "Turnaround Plan" are crucial for enabling future revenue growth through improved financial health. These plans aim for significant annualized benefits, including "gross margin expansion, driven by product mix optimization and supply chain efficiencies". By exiting lower-margin businesses like smartwatches and closing underperforming stores, Fossil is focusing on higher-margin core products, which, by improving overall profitability, allows for reinvestment into growth-driving initiatives like marketing and product development.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- As of January 1, 2019, Fossil Group had $30.0 million in share repurchase authorizations remaining under its program.
- However, the company has been restricted from making open market repurchases of its common stock under the terms of its credit agreement.
Share Issuance
- As part of a UK court-supervised Restructuring Plan and debt exchange offer in 2025, Fossil Group is contemplating the issuance of common stock and warrants to certain noteholders.
- Participants in a new money offering related to the debt restructuring will receive new common shares equal to 5% of their funded portion, amounting to $1.625 million in new common shares.
- As of April 22, 2025, there were 53,616,039 shares of common stock outstanding.
Inbound Investments
- In 2025, Fossil Group secured a new $150 million asset-based revolving credit facility with Ares Management Credit Fund, enhancing its financial flexibility.
- Through a "new money offering" in connection with its debt exchange offer, Fossil Group expects to receive total cash proceeds of up to $32.5 million.
Outbound Investments
- Information regarding significant outbound investments in other companies by Fossil Group over the last 3-5 years is not available. The company has focused on closing underperforming stores and exiting unprofitable businesses.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditure values for fiscal years 2021, 2022, and 2023 are not directly available in the provided snippets.
- The company's focus in recent years includes initiatives to reorganize infrastructure, optimize its retail store portfolio, and exit the smartwatch category as part of its Transform and Grow (TAG) plan.
- Operating expenses in Q1 2025 included $15.8 million in restructuring costs, primarily for employee costs and professional services, while Q1 2024 saw $10.1 million in restructuring costs.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Fossil Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| Fossil Stock On Fire: Up 75% With 8-Day Winning Streak | 12/02/2025 | |
| Fossil Stock Surges 70%, With A 7-Day Winning Spree | 11/27/2025 | |
| Fossil Stock Surges 65%, With A 6-Day Winning Spree | 11/26/2025 | |
| Can Fossil Stock Recover If Markets Fall? | 10/17/2025 | |
| Fossil Market Price | 03/14/2025 | |
| Fossil vs. S&P500 Correlation | 10/03/2024 | |
| Fossil Price Volatility | 09/24/2024 | |
| Why Fossil Stock Moved: FOSL Stock Has Gained 153% Since 2023 Primarily Due To Favorable Change In Price To Sales Multiple (P/S) | 12/05/2023 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 35.02 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.2 |
| Rev LTM | 1,974 |
| Op Inc LTM | 244 |
| FCF LTM | 177 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 211 |
| CFO LTM | 230 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 254 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -7.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 13.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.2 |
| P/S | 2.0 |
| P/EBIT | 11.1 |
| P/E | 16.0 |
| P/CFO | 16.8 |
| Total Yield | 5.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.9% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -7.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 18.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 2.1% |
| 12M Rtn | -22.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 40.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -5.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 21.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -8.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -33.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -31.0% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $3.26 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 04/08/1993 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -20.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $3.64 | $2.42 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -10.5% | 34.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 89.6% | 108.6% |
| Downside Capture | 163.05 | 236.02 |
| Upside Capture | 506.65 | 267.75 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 33.7% | 30.9% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 3.10 | 1.70 | 2.91 | 2.99 | 1.76 | 1.68 |
| Up Beta | -0.61 | -2.83 | 1.54 | 1.81 | 0.86 | 0.88 |
| Down Beta | 5.29 | 3.13 | 2.33 | 2.86 | 1.93 | 1.70 |
| Up Capture | 105% | 228% | 741% | 796% | 874% | 998% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 34 | 71 | 142 | 430 |
| Stock +ve Days | 7 | 17 | 30 | 56 | 106 | 319 |
| Down Capture | 348% | 130% | 207% | 224% | 153% | 113% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 9 | 19 | 27 | 54 | 109 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 30 | 65 | 133 | 395 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FOSL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOSL | 90.7% | 108.5% | 1.07 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 2.1% | 24.3% | 0.03 | 31.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.6% | 19.3% | 0.54 | 30.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 69.7% | 24.7% | 2.11 | 7.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.1% | 16.6% | 0.24 | 11.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.4% | 16.5% | 0.09 | 25.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -26.6% | 40.5% | -0.66 | 12.3% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FOSL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOSL | -25.1% | 90.6% | 0.08 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 8.6% | 23.8% | 0.32 | 35.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.4% | 17.0% | 0.67 | 33.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.8% | 16.9% | 1.01 | 6.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.7% | 18.9% | 0.50 | 9.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 18.8% | 0.18 | 29.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 16.0% | 57.4% | 0.49 | 14.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FOSL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOSL | -19.9% | 95.9% | 0.19 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 13.6% | 21.9% | 0.57 | 29.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.5% | 17.9% | 0.74 | 25.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 15.4% | 15.5% | 0.83 | 1.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.9% | 17.6% | 0.37 | 11.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.0% | 20.7% | 0.26 | 22.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 69.0% | 66.5% | 1.08 | 8.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/13/2025 | -9.3% | 5.2% | 64.8% |
| 8/13/2025 | 29.8% | 63.5% | 72.4% |
| 3/12/2025 | 29.1% | 7.1% | -22.6% |
| 11/7/2024 | -8.7% | 3.1% | 66.1% |
| 8/8/2024 | -2.6% | -6.1% | -10.5% |
| 3/13/2024 | -6.5% | 16.6% | 3.6% |
| 11/8/2023 | -32.4% | -26.6% | -26.0% |
| 8/9/2023 | -6.6% | -17.4% | -14.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 11 | 9 |
| # Negative | 11 | 8 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 19.2% | 16.6% | 55.6% |
| Median Negative | -9.3% | -18.4% | -24.1% |
| Max Positive | 29.8% | 78.8% | 122.6% |
| Max Negative | -37.5% | -33.5% | -41.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/14/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/15/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/12/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/13/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/11/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/09/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/11/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/12/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/10/2022 | 10-K |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coulter, Suzanne M | Direct | Buy | 12042025 | 3.62 | 28,170 | 101,975 | 356,414 | Form | |
| 2 | Greben, Randy J | CFO | Direct | Buy | 11252025 | 2.38 | 20,980 | 49,932 | 406,932 | Form |
| 3 | Edwards, Pamela J | Direct | Buy | 11212025 | 2.37 | 10,000 | 23,700 | 29,544 | Form | |
| 4 | Tifford, Gail B | Direct | Buy | 11242025 | 2.40 | 33,000 | 79,200 | 326,220 | Form | |
| 5 | Schoppert, Wendy Lee | Direct | Buy | 11242025 | 2.47 | 41,322 | 102,065 | 108,156 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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