Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Fashion-Forward Wearables, and Accessible Premium Accessories.
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 270%
1  Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -91%
Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 145%
2   Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -15%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -16%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -15%
3   Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.0%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.4%
4   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -79%
5   High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 125%
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Fashion-Forward Wearables, and Accessible Premium Accessories.
1 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%
2 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -91%
3 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 270%
4 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 145%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -15%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -16%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -15%
6 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.0%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.4%
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -79%
8 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 125%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

FOSL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are key points explaining recent movements in Fossil's stock: 1. Improved Adjusted Operating Income in Q4 2024. Fossil Group reported an adjusted operating income of $20.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2024, a significant improvement compared to an adjusted operating loss of $8.5 million in the same period of 2023. This indicates a positive shift in the company's operational performance.

2. Strong Gross Margin Expansion. The company's gross margin expanded by 630 basis points to 53.9% in the fourth quarter of 2024. This improvement was primarily due to enhanced product margins in core categories and the strategic discontinuation of smartwatches.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
FOSL Return10%19%-58%-66%14%105%-57%
Peers Return5%16%-23%33%74%-22%70%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
FOSL Win Rate33%58%50%42%50%30% 
Peers Win Rate33%50%32%47%47%32% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
FOSL Max Drawdown-66%-1%-67%-75%-47%-46% 
Peers Max Drawdown-30%-3%-35%-7%-6%-36% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WWW, WEYS, FWDI, ONON, DECK.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventFOSLS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-95.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven2070.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-68.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven212.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven119 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-79.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven377.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven209 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-75.4%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven306.3%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven545 days1480 days

Compare to WWW, WEYS, FWDI, ONON, DECK


In The Past

Fossil's stock fell -95.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/27/2021. A -95.4% loss requires a 2070.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Fossil (FOSL)

Better Bets than Fossil (FOSL)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to FOSL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Fossil

Peers to compare with:

Financials

FOSLWWWWEYSFWDIONONDECKMedian
NameFossil Wolverin.Weyco Forward .On Deckers . 
Mkt Price3.7517.4631.798.5147.0794.9724.62
Mkt Cap0.21.40.3-30.014.21.4
Rev LTM1,0841,852281272,7185,1251,468
Op Inc LTM1914133-52961,21287
FCF LTM-485433-234888043
FCF 3Y Avg-1218044-0177804111
CFO LTM-437634-241696855
CFO 3Y Avg-320247-0243893124

Growth & Margins

FOSLWWWWEYSFWDIONONDECKMedian
NameFossil Wolverin.Weyco Forward .On Deckers . 
Rev Chg LTM-15.3%3.6%-6.4%5.6%35.7%15.5%4.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-16.2%-10.6%-3.6%-13.5%43.6%16.3%-7.1%
Rev Chg Q-15.2%6.8%-8.9%-50.5%32.0%16.9%-1.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-3.5%1.7%-2.0%-8.6%7.2%2.8%-0.2%
Op Mgn LTM1.7%7.6%11.6%-19.0%10.9%23.6%9.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-2.0%3.4%12.6%-6.9%9.6%21.3%6.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM3.0%0.6%-0.7%-8.7%1.0%-0.0%0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM-4.0%4.1%12.2%-6.8%15.3%18.9%8.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-0.3%9.8%15.2%-0.7%9.9%20.2%9.8%
FCF/Rev LTM-4.4%2.9%11.6%-6.9%12.8%17.2%7.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-0.9%8.7%14.5%-0.9%6.5%18.1%7.6%

Valuation

FOSLWWWWEYSFWDIONONDECKMedian
NameFossil Wolverin.Weyco Forward .On Deckers . 
Mkt Cap0.21.40.3-30.014.21.4
P/S0.11.21.1-12.23.01.2
P/EBIT-1.915.68.9-214.211.811.8
P/E-1.325.212.1-243.815.315.3
P/CFO-1.829.49.1-79.615.615.6
Total Yield-74.9%5.4%17.5%-0.4%6.5%5.4%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.5%9.3%-0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-6.7%20.5%15.6%-0.6%4.7%4.7%
D/E4.10.40.0-0.00.00.0
Net D/E2.70.3-0.2--0.0-0.1-0.0

Returns

FOSLWWWWEYSFWDIONONDECKMedian
NameFossil Wolverin.Weyco Forward .On Deckers . 
1M Rtn82.0%-21.8%19.0%-29.1%17.1%19.0%
3M Rtn15.4%-44.2%13.2%-5.1%-23.2%5.1%
6M Rtn145.1%5.8%8.3%--18.9%-10.2%5.8%
12M Rtn77.7%-24.7%-2.1%--20.9%-53.2%-20.9%
3Y Rtn-18.8%71.5%50.0%-140.0%46.4%50.0%
1M Excs Rtn82.1%-21.8%19.0%-29.1%17.1%19.0%
3M Excs Rtn4.3%-50.6%2.7%--3.1%-28.7%-3.1%
6M Excs Rtn130.4%-8.9%-6.5%--33.6%-25.0%-8.9%
12M Excs Rtn143.3%-36.7%-15.8%--32.9%-65.1%-32.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-91.1%1.6%-18.7%-81.5%-24.2%-18.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Traditional watches1,0151,1591,2881,058 
Leathers158179158174239
Jewelry13115415996123
Smartwatches81152224249 
Other2739413753
Watches    1,802
Total1,4121,6821,8701,6132,218


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity5,268,800
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120258.5%
Average Daily Volume809,079
Days-to-Cover Short Interest6.51
Basic Shares Quantity53,624,000
Short % of Basic Shares9.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025814202510-Q 7/5/2025
3312025515202510-Q 4/5/2025
12312024312202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/28/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/29/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/30/2024
12312023313202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023810202310-Q 7/1/2023
3312023511202310-Q 4/1/2023
12312022309202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221110202210-Q 10/1/2022
6302022811202210-Q 7/2/2022
3312022512202210-Q 4/2/2022
12312021310202210-K 1/1/2022
93020211112202110-Q 10/2/2021