Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Fashion-Forward Wearables, and Accessible Premium Accessories.
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.3%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 179%
1  Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -90%
Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 193%
2   Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -13%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -16%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.1%
3   Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.0%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.3%
4   Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 132%
5   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -54%
6   High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 109%
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Fashion-Forward Wearables, and Accessible Premium Accessories.
1 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.3%
2 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -90%
3 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 179%
4 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 193%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -13%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -16%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.1%
6 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.0%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.3%
7 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 132%
8 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -54%
9 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 109%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

FOSL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

While the request specified a time period from August 31, 2025, to today (December 14, 2025), which is in the future, I have retrieved information up to the most recent available date, December 14, 2025. Based on the available data, Fossil (FOSL) experienced significant stock movement and news around this recent period. Here are key points explaining movements observed: 1. Fossil Group's stock saw a significant increase in the past two weeks leading up to December 12, 2025, rising by 29.9%.

2. Fossil's stock surged 100% over a 17-day period leading up to December 5, 2025, driven by debt restructuring and turnaround efforts gaining traction. The company extended its 2026 debt obligation by three years and secured an additional $35 million in debt.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
FOSL Return10%19%-58%-66%14%130%-51%
Peers Return
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%111%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
FOSL Win Rate33%58%50%42%50%42% 
Peers Win Rate33% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
FOSL Max Drawdown-66%-1%-67%-75%-47%-46% 
Peers Max Drawdown 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WWW, WEYS, FWDI, ONON, DECK.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventFOSLS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-95.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven2070.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-68.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven212.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven119 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-79.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven377.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven209 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-75.4%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven306.3%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven545 days1480 days

Compare to WWW, WEYS, FWDI, ONON, DECK


In The Past

Fossil's stock fell -95.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/27/2021. A -95.4% loss requires a 2070.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Fossil (FOSL)

Better Bets than Fossil (FOSL)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to FOSL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
15.2%15.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.1%1.1%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.4%12.4%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.9%17.9%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
15.2%15.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.1%1.1%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.4%12.4%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.9%17.9%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Fossil

Peers to compare with:

Financials

FOSLWWWWEYSFWDIONONDECKMedian
NameFossil Wolverin.Weyco Forward .On Deckers . 
Mkt Price3.9018.1232.997.5648.76101.1825.55
Mkt Cap0.21.50.3-26.715.11.5
Rev LTM1,0661,852280202,8775,1251,459
Op Inc LTM2314131-63481,21286
FCF LTM-465432-534588043
FCF 3Y Avg-218052-1241804116
CFO LTM-437634-541596855
CFO 3Y Avg620254-1306893128

Growth & Margins

FOSLWWWWEYSFWDIONONDECKMedian
NameFossil Wolverin.Weyco Forward .On Deckers . 
Rev Chg LTM-12.9%3.6%-3.6%-8.3%33.3%15.5%-0.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-15.8%-10.6%-7.4%-17.4%41.0%16.3%-9.0%
Rev Chg Q-6.1%6.8%-1.6%67.6%24.9%16.9%11.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.6%1.7%-0.4%18.9%5.8%2.8%2.2%
Op Mgn LTM2.2%7.6%10.9%-30.6%12.1%23.6%9.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-2.9%3.4%12.2%-13.0%10.1%21.3%6.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.4%0.6%-0.7%1.0%1.2%-0.0%0.5%
CFO/Rev LTM-4.0%4.1%12.0%-22.3%14.4%18.9%8.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg0.3%9.8%17.5%-5.7%12.8%20.2%11.3%
FCF/Rev LTM-4.3%2.9%11.5%-22.4%12.0%17.2%7.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-0.2%8.7%16.8%-6.0%9.7%18.1%9.2%

Valuation

FOSLWWWWEYSFWDIONONDECKMedian
NameFossil Wolverin.Weyco Forward .On Deckers . 
Mkt Cap0.21.50.3-26.715.11.5
P/S0.21.21.0-9.33.01.2
P/EBIT-2.715.6---11.811.8
P/E-3.025.211.7-119.215.315.3
P/CFO-4.829.48.4-64.415.615.6
Total Yield-33.0%5.4%18.9%-0.8%6.5%5.4%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.5%10.3%-0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg14.7%20.5%---4.7%14.7%
D/E2.40.4---0.00.4
Net D/E1.80.3----0.10.3

Returns

FOSLWWWWEYSFWDIONONDECKMedian
NameFossil Wolverin.Weyco Forward .On Deckers . 
1M Rtn85.7%16.0%5.8%-15.0%21.8%16.0%
3M Rtn25.0%-40.4%20.2%-13.7%-14.6%13.7%
6M Rtn193.2%5.8%20.4%--6.7%-0.3%5.8%
12M Rtn96.0%-21.3%0.3%--14.9%-51.0%-14.9%
3Y Rtn-19.3%79.3%65.5%-173.5%55.6%65.5%
1M Excs Rtn69.2%13.6%5.4%-17.8%20.2%17.8%
3M Excs Rtn25.9%-42.9%16.1%-11.1%-17.9%11.1%
6M Excs Rtn179.0%-8.4%6.1%--20.9%-14.5%-8.4%
12M Excs Rtn79.0%-31.7%-5.9%--24.8%-63.1%-24.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-90.0%21.4%-21.1%-96.9%-12.9%-12.9%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Traditional watches1,0151,1591,2881,058 
Leathers158179158174239
Jewelry13115415996123
Smartwatches81152224249 
Other2739413753
Watches    1,802
Total1,4121,6821,8701,6132,218


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4,993,086
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-5.2%
Average Daily Volume1,473,418
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.39
Basic Shares Quantity52,363,000
Short % of Basic Shares9.5%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/13/2025-9.3%5.2% 
8/13/202529.8%63.5%72.4%
3/12/202529.1%7.1%-22.6%
11/7/2024-8.7%3.1%66.1%
8/8/2024-2.6%-6.1%-10.5%
3/13/2024-6.5%16.6%3.6%
11/8/2023-32.4%-26.6%-26.0%
8/9/2023-6.6%-17.4%-14.5%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive8118
# Negative11811
Median Positive19.2%16.6%46.2%
Median Negative-9.3%-18.4%-24.1%
Max Positive29.8%78.8%122.6%
Max Negative-37.5%-33.5%-41.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251113202510-Q 10/4/2025
6302025814202510-Q 7/5/2025
3312025515202510-Q 4/5/2025
12312024312202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/28/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/29/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/30/2024
12312023313202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023810202310-Q 7/1/2023
3312023511202310-Q 4/1/2023
12312022309202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221110202210-Q 10/1/2022
6302022811202210-Q 7/2/2022
3312022512202210-Q 4/2/2022
12312021310202210-K 1/1/2022