Fossil (FOSL)
Market Price (8/21/2026): $5.595 | Market Cap: $330.3 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Footwear
Fossil (FOSL)
Market Price (8/21/2026): $5.595Market Cap: $330.3 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Footwear
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Fashion-Forward Wearables, and Accessible Premium Accessories. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 80% Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.1%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -15%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.9% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.8%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.2% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -26% Key risksFOSL key risks include [1] its core traditional watch business being severely impacted by competition from smartwatches, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Fashion-Forward Wearables, and Accessible Premium Accessories. |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 80% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.1%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -15%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.9% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.8%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.2% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -26% |
| Key risksFOSL key risks include [1] its core traditional watch business being severely impacted by competition from smartwatches, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Fossil (FOSL) stock has gained about 25% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Fossil Group exceeded analyst expectations for both fiscal Q1 2026 and fiscal Q2 2026 financial results.
For fiscal Q1 2026, the company reported an EPS of -$0.03, significantly surpassing the consensus estimate of -$0.28 by $0.25, with revenue of $224.76 million beating expectations of $204.74 million. Subsequently, for fiscal Q2 2026, Fossil again reported an EPS of -$0.13, exceeding analysts' consensus estimates of -$0.29 by $0.16, and revenue reached $209.70 million, above analyst estimates of $199.33 million. This consistent outperformance signals a positive trajectory for the company.
2. The company raised its full-year 2026 financial outlook, including a projection for positive free cash flow.
Fossil Group increased its full-year 2026 worldwide net sales guidance to an expected decline in the range of 3% to 5%, an improvement from the prior forecast of a 4% to 6% decline. Furthermore, the adjusted operating margin outlook was lifted to a range of 4% to 6% from the previous 3% to 5%. Crucially, management now anticipates generating positive free cash flow for the full fiscal year 2026, a significant improvement from its earlier expectation of "breakeven free cash flow". This revised guidance reflects growing confidence in the company's turnaround plan and future profitability.
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Fossil (FOSL) stock has gained about 25% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Fossil Group exceeded analyst expectations for both fiscal Q1 2026 and fiscal Q2 2026 financial results.
For fiscal Q1 2026, the company reported an EPS of -$0.03, significantly surpassing the consensus estimate of -$0.28 by $0.25, with revenue of $224.76 million beating expectations of $204.74 million. Subsequently, for fiscal Q2 2026, Fossil again reported an EPS of -$0.13, exceeding analysts' consensus estimates of -$0.29 by $0.16, and revenue reached $209.70 million, above analyst estimates of $199.33 million. This consistent outperformance signals a positive trajectory for the company.
2. The company raised its full-year 2026 financial outlook, including a projection for positive free cash flow.
Fossil Group increased its full-year 2026 worldwide net sales guidance to an expected decline in the range of 3% to 5%, an improvement from the prior forecast of a 4% to 6% decline. Furthermore, the adjusted operating margin outlook was lifted to a range of 4% to 6% from the previous 3% to 5%. Crucially, management now anticipates generating positive free cash flow for the full fiscal year 2026, a significant improvement from its earlier expectation of "breakeven free cash flow". This revised guidance reflects growing confidence in the company's turnaround plan and future profitability.
3. Significant gross margin expansion and operational efficiencies drove improved profitability.
In fiscal Q2 2026, Fossil Group's gross margin expanded by 490 basis points year-over-year to 62.4%. This improvement was primarily attributed to a focus on full-price selling, enhanced product margins, and supply chain optimizations. Concurrently, the company's adjusted operating income approximately doubled to $8.6 million in fiscal Q2 2026 compared to the prior year, demonstrating early success in its strategic turnaround plan and disciplined cost management initiatives.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 26.0% change in FOSL stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 32.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 8202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 4.43 | 5.58 | 26.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,004 | 985 | -1.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.3 | 0.3 | 32.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 57 | 59 | -3.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 26.0% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 8/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FOSL | 26.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 6.1% | 37.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | -1.4% | 42.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 60.8% change in FOSL stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 96.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 8202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 3.47 | 5.58 | 60.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,066 | 985 | -7.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.2 | 0.3 | 96.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 52 | 59 | -11.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 60.8% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 8/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FOSL | 60.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 10.5% | 36.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | -3.5% | 38.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 230.2% change in FOSL stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 317.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 8202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1.69 | 5.58 | 230.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,123 | 985 | -12.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.1 | 0.3 | 317.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 53 | 59 | -9.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 230.2% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 8/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FOSL | 230.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 21.7% | 29.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | 6.0% | 29.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 100.7% change in FOSL stock from 7/31/2023 to 8/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 278.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312023 | 8202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 2.78 | 5.58 | 100.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,632 | 985 | -39.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.1 | 0.3 | 278.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 52 | 59 | -12.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 100.7% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 8/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FOSL | 100.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 72.5% | 26.5% |
| Sector (XLY) | 37.4% | 28.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FOSL Return | 19% | -58% | -66% | 14% | 125% | 51% | -34% |
| Peers Return | 22% | -29% | 37% | 77% | -24% | 3% | 66% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FOSL Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 42% | 50% | 42% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 40% | 60% | 55% | 43% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FOSL Max Drawdown | -61% | -77% | -81% | -48% | -55% | -31% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -27% | -50% | -32% | -21% | -46% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: WWW, WEYS, ONON, DECK, BIRK.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/20/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | FOSL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -46.7% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 87.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 28 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -14.5% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.0% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 9 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -59.8% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 148.6% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 619 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -57.8% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 137.1% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1011 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -48.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 93.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 67 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -35.0% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 53.9% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 765 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Fossil's stock fell -46.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 87.5% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | FOSL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -46.7% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 87.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 28 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -59.8% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 148.6% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 619 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -57.8% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 137.1% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1011 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -48.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 93.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 67 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -35.0% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 53.9% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 765 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -67.6% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 208.6% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 352 days | 6 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -45.2% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 82.4% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 216 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -20.3% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.4% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 95 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -74.3% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 289.5% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 545 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Fossil's stock fell -46.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 87.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Fossil (FOSL)
Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL) is a global company specializing in the design, development, marketing, and distribution of consumer fashion accessories. Its core product categories encompass a wide range of items, including traditional watches, smartwatches, jewelry, handbags, small leather goods, belts, and sunglasses. Beyond its branded offerings, Fossil also manufactures and distributes private label brands and resells other branded products.
The company operates with a dual-brand strategy, utilizing both its own proprietary brands and a portfolio of prominent licensed brands. Proprietary brands include FOSSIL, SKAGEN, MICHELE, RELIC, and ZODIAC. Additionally, Fossil holds licenses for well-recognized names such as ARMANI EXCHANGE, DIESEL, EMPORIO ARMANI, KATE SPADE NEW YORK, MICHAEL KORS, PUMA, TORY BURCH, Skechers, and BMW. These products are distributed internationally, serving markets across the United States, Europe, and Asia.
Fossil serves a broad consumer base through a comprehensive multi-channel distribution network. This network includes company-owned retail and outlet stores, department stores, specialty retail stores, and e-commerce platforms. The company also extends its reach through licensed and franchised stores, retail concessions, and sales on airlines and cruise ships, ensuring its fashion accessories are accessible to customers worldwide.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are a few analogies for Fossil:
-
The Tapestry (Coach, Kate Spade parent) of watches and broader fashion accessories.
-
Imagine the Swatch Group, but also making handbags, jewelry, and sunglasses under both its own and many licensed brands.
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- Traditional Watches: Classic timepieces designed for telling time and as fashion accessories.
- Smartwatches: Digital watches offering advanced functionalities beyond timekeeping, often including connectivity and health tracking.
- Jewelry: Decorative items worn for personal adornment, such as necklaces, bracelets, earrings, and rings.
- Handbags: Fashionable bags carried by hand or over the shoulder, used for carrying personal items.
- Small Leather Goods: Compact accessories made from leather, such as wallets, cardholders, and keychains.
- Belts: Strips of material worn around the waist, primarily for fashion or to hold up clothing.
- Sunglasses: Eyewear designed to protect the eyes from bright sunlight and as a fashion statement.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL) primarily sells its products directly to individual consumers through various channels, including its own retail stores, e-commerce sites, department stores, and specialty retailers. Therefore, its major customers are individual consumers, who can be categorized as follows:
- Fashion-Oriented Consumers: Individuals who purchase traditional watches, jewelry, handbags, small leather goods, belts, and sunglasses. These customers are driven by style, brand recognition (both Fossil's proprietary brands like FOSSIL, SKAGEN, MICHELE, and licensed brands such as MICHAEL KORS, KATE SPADE NEW YORK, EMPORIO ARMANI), and current fashion trends. They seek accessories to complement their personal style and often shop in department stores, specialty boutiques, and Fossil's own branded stores.
- Tech-Integrated Fashion Consumers: This category comprises individuals specifically interested in smartwatches, which combine the aesthetics of traditional fashion accessories with modern technology and connectivity. These consumers value both style and functionality in their accessories.
- Broad Market Consumers / Gift-Givers: This group includes a wider range of individuals seeking accessible fashion accessories for everyday use or as gifts. They may be drawn to the variety of styles and price points available across Fossil's extensive brand portfolio, shopping through various channels including mass market stores, outlet stores, and online platforms.
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Franco Fogliato was appointed Chief Executive Officer and a Director in September 2024. Prior to joining Fossil Group, he served as President and Chief Executive Officer of Salomon, a division of Amer Sports, Inc., from November 2021 until April 2024.
Randy Greben, Chief Financial OfficerRandy Greben serves as the Chief Financial Officer of Fossil Group, Inc.
Shannon Freeze, Chief People and Communications OfficerShannon Freeze was appointed Chief People and Communications Officer, effective February 23, 2026. Her background includes 13 years at Texas Instruments, a semiconductor company, where she held various HR leadership positions, overseeing global benefits, people operations, and systems. She also previously worked at E.I. du Pont de Nemours.
Steve Evans, Chief Brand OfficerSteve Evans joined Fossil Group in 2014 and is recognized for transforming the organization's digital strategy by leading innovations in marketing, e-commerce, and smartwatch design. Before his tenure at Fossil Group, he held executive leadership positions at prominent global brands, including Converse, Levi's, Dockers, The Gap, and Old Navy. Additionally, he founded Evans Business Group, LLC in 2014 and is the Managing Director of econymous, LLC, a consultancy specializing in blockchain, cryptocurrency, and artificial intelligence.
Antonio Carriero, Chief Digital Information Officer and General Manager EMEAAntonio Carriero serves as the Chief Digital Information Officer and General Manager EMEA for Fossil Group, Inc.
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Key Risks to Fossil Group (FOSL)
- Financial Health and High Leverage: Fossil Group faces significant financial challenges, including an Altman Z-Score indicating a distress zone and potential bankruptcy risk. The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio and has experienced material, multi-year revenue declines, with net sales falling 12.3% in 2025. Profitability remains a challenge, with negative net and operating margins. Furthermore, high leverage and restrictive debt covenants limit financial flexibility and increase refinancing risks, with debt restructuring expected to increase annual interest costs.
- Evolving Consumer Preferences and Market Dynamics: The business is undergoing a difficult transition in a declining traditional watch market, which constitutes over 82% of its revenue, leading to heightened category concentration risk. The company faces competitive pressures from smartwatches, particularly the Apple Watch, and an oversupply in luxury watches, despite Fossil Group also being a player in the wearables market. This indicates a struggle for its core business to adapt to shifts in consumer preferences within the fashion accessories sector.
- Macroeconomic Headwinds and Supply Chain/Tariff Risks: Fossil Group is exposed to macro volatility due to sales weakness in key markets like Europe and China. Heightened tariff risks and shifts in trade policy, particularly a heavy reliance on Chinese sourcing, threaten supply chain stability and margin resilience, as tariffs reduced gross margin by approximately 140 basis points in 2025. The company's performance is also tied to trade policy, foreign exchange, and geopolitical stability, given that 67.4% of its sales are generated outside the U.S. Additionally, structural retail headwinds, such as weakened mall traffic, continue to impact its numerous brick-and-mortar stores.
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1. The increasing dominance of technology companies (e.g., Apple, Samsung, Google) in the smartwatch market. These companies leverage extensive research and development budgets, integrated software ecosystems, and established consumer tech platforms to offer smartwatches with superior functionality, health monitoring, and seamless user experiences. Fossil, primarily a fashion accessories company, struggles to compete effectively on technology and ecosystem integration, potentially rendering its fashion-first smartwatch strategy less competitive as consumers increasingly prioritize advanced tech features and seamless integration with their existing devices. This shift mirrors how smartphones from tech companies disrupted traditional phone manufacturers.
2. The widespread adoption and market share growth of direct-to-consumer (DTC) and ultra-fast fashion business models. These agile competitors can offer fashion accessories, including jewelry, handbags, and other small leather goods, at more competitive prices and with faster trend responsiveness by bypassing traditional wholesale and retail distribution channels. This puts pressure on Fossil's established multi-channel retail operations and its ability to compete on price and speed-to-market across its diverse product portfolio.
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Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL) operates in several consumer fashion accessory markets. The addressable market sizes for their main products are as follows:
- Traditional Watches: The global watches market size was estimated at USD 69.10 billion in 2025.
- Smartwatches: The global smartwatch market size reached USD 53.2 billion in 2024.
- Jewelry: The global jewelry market size was approximately USD 389.13 billion in 2024.
- Handbags: The global handbag market size was valued at USD 66.76 billion in 2024.
- Small Leather Goods: The global small leather goods/accessories market size was estimated at USD 21.79 billion in 2022.
- Belts: The global belt market is valued at USD 10.2 billion as of 2025.
- Sunglasses: The global sunglasses market size was valued at USD 43.03 billion in 2025.
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Here are the expected drivers of future revenue growth for Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL) over the next 2-3 years:
- Shift to a Full-Price Selling Model: Fossil Group is prioritizing a full-price selling model, which is expected to lead to higher average unit retail (AUR) and improved channel profitability. While this strategy initially caused some sales declines due to reduced discounting, it is anticipated to contribute to healthier and more profitable revenue growth in the long term.
- Product Innovation and Enhanced Brand Engagement: The company is focused on fueling product innovation, including the relaunch of iconic items like the Big Tic watch and the introduction of new premium platforms such as the Signature series. Additionally, Fossil aims to boost consumer engagement through high-impact marketing campaigns, influencer collaborations, and in-store activations to drive product visibility and sales across key channels.
- Strategic Market Expansion: Fossil Group sees significant opportunities for growth in strategic markets, particularly in high-growth regions like India, which has been identified as one of the fastest-growing large economies. This geographic expansion is expected to contribute to an increased customer base and sales.
- Growth in Wholesale Traditional Watch Business for Core Brands: The global wholesale traditional watch business for Fossil's core licensed brands demonstrated growth in 2025. Continued momentum in this segment is expected to serve as an ongoing revenue driver.
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Share Repurchases
- Fossil Group's buyback yield was -2.13%, suggesting net issuance or minimal repurchases over the period.
Share Issuance
- Fossil Group had 58.36 million shares outstanding, with the number of shares increasing by 2.13% in one year.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures in the most recent quarter (Q3 2025) totaled approximately $0.342 million.
- This represented a decrease of 57.5% from the prior quarter in Q3 2025.
Peer Outperformance in Footwear
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education Services | 14 | -14.8% | 105.2% | 68.8% | LINC 330% · CVSA 256% · UTI 254% |
| Homebuilding | 18 | -0.5% | 29.9% | 53.4% | GRBK 182% · TOL 157% · PHM 154% |
| Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines | 22 | 21.0% | 55.3% | 18.4% | RCL 278% · MAR 184% · HLT 174% |
| Automotive Retail | 18 | -11.8% | 3.1% | 16.0% | MUSA 273% · PAG 187% · ORLY 120% |
| Home Improvement Retail | 5 | -14.5% | 2.5% | 9.4% | HD 15% · LOW 15% · HVT 9% |
| Specialty Stores | 7 | 2.5% | 22.4% | 7.0% | DKS 91% · ASO 28% · SIG 23% |
| Casinos & Gaming | 20 | -7.5% | -24.0% | 3.6% | BRAG 963% · MCRI 118% · RSI 112% |
| Specialized Consumer Services | 10 | -8.8% | 18.3% | -3.2% | HRB 146% · FTDR 97% · SCI 42% |
| Distributors | 4 | -5.4% | -23.9% | -8.7% | ARMK 163% · GPC 24% · LKQ -41% |
| Restaurants | 34 | -6.5% | -8.6% | -8.9% | EAT 363% · CAKE 183% · RAVE 167% |
| Home Furnishings | 4 | 1.7% | 27.7% | -13.2% | SGI 59% · LZB 7% · MHK -34% |
| Footwear ← | 9 | 67.2% | 42.8% | -13.3% | WEYS 152% · SHOO 27% · DECK 23% |
| Leisure Products | 13 | -0.7% | -20.5% | -30.7% | GOLF 86% · HAS 19% · MCFT 4% |
| Automotive Parts & Equipment | 38 | -7.0% | -5.2% | -32.8% | MOD 1392% · GTX 293% · STRT 100% |
| Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods | 27 | 4.7% | -5.1% | -36.0% | TPR 264% · RL 254% · ELA 236% |
| Household Appliances | 17 | 10.1% | 37.5% | -38.1% | KEQU 173% · FLXS 147% · HBB 126% |
| Leisure Facilities | 12 | -10.1% | -9.1% | -40.8% | OSW 184% · JAKK 115% · ESCA 10% |
| Apparel Retail | 25 | 1.0% | 1.9% | -42.1% | DXLG 192% · ANF 176% · TJX 104% |
| Broadline Retail | 15 | 6.9% | 10.5% | -49.2% | DDS 284% · AMZN 63% · EBAY 56% |
| Computer & Electronics Retail | 3 | -16.4% | -2.4% | -54.7% | BBY -4% · GME -55% · UPBD -61% |
| Automobile Manufacturers | 8 | -68.7% | -67.6% | -68.7% | GM 84% · TSLA 52% · F 52% |
| Consumer Electronics | 11 | -21.9% | -28.3% | -74.5% | AXIL 2037% · GRMN 90% · TBCH -55% |
| Other Specialty Retail | 18 | -28.4% | -44.9% | -77.6% | BBW 209% · TLF 107% · WINA 92% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Fossil Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| Fossil Stock On Fire: Up 75% With 8-Day Winning Streak | 12/02/2025 | |
| Fossil Stock Surges 70%, With A 7-Day Winning Spree | 11/27/2025 | |
| Fossil Stock Surges 65%, With A 6-Day Winning Spree | 11/26/2025 | |
| Can Fossil Stock Recover If Markets Fall? | 10/17/2025 | |
| Fossil Market Price | 03/14/2025 | |
| Fossil vs. S&P500 Correlation | 10/03/2024 | |
| Fossil Price Volatility | 09/24/2024 | |
| Why Fossil Stock Moved: FOSL Stock Has Gained 153% Since 2023 Primarily Due To Favorable Change In Price To Sales Multiple (P/S) | 12/05/2023 |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 32.67 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.0 |
| Rev LTM | 1,468 |
| Op Inc LTM | 106 |
| FCF LTM | 110 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 84 |
| CFO LTM | 115 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 92 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -7.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 17.5% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 15.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 13.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 12.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.7% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Traditional watches | 815 | 873 | 1,015 | 1,288 |
| Jewelry | 91 | 114 | 131 | 159 |
| Leathers | 70 | 111 | 158 | 158 |
| Other | 17 | 22 | 27 | 41 |
| Smartwatches | 12 | 25 | 81 | 224 |
| Total | 1,004 | 1,145 | 1,412 | 1,870 |
| $ Mil | 2015 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia Pacific Wholesale | 123 | 130 | 127 | 109 |
| Corporate | -184 | -181 | -158 | -147 |
| Direct to customer | 115 | 88 | 99 | 87 |
| Europe Wholesale | 261 | 219 | 174 | 188 |
| North America Wholesale | 251 | 306 | 247 | 235 |
| Total | 567 | 562 | 489 | 472 |
| $ Mil | 2015 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia Pacific Wholesale | 585 | 517 | 417 | 258 |
| Corporate | 168 | 163 | 146 | 176 |
| Direct to customer | 353 | 335 | 313 | 247 |
| Europe Wholesale | 385 | 535 | 355 | 437 |
| North America Wholesale | 716 | 680 | 611 | 525 |
| Total | 2,208 | 2,230 | 1,842 | 1,643 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $5.58 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 04/08/1993 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -8.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $4.53 | $4.08 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 23.1% | 36.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 65.4% | 91.3% |
| Downside Capture | 88.43 | 251.30 |
| Upside Capture | 223.47 | 272.64 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 34.1% | 32.5% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.13 | 0.99 | 1.37 | 1.57 | 2.12 | 1.64 |
| Up Beta | 3.32 | -0.15 | 0.25 | 1.32 | 1.27 | 0.87 |
| Down Beta | 1.82 | 1.76 | 1.58 | 1.06 | 1.95 | 1.62 |
| Up Capture | 346% | 153% | 190% | 260% | 819% | 1843% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 65 | 121 | 328 |
| Down Capture | 46% | 62% | 144% | 147% | 153% | 112% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 29 | 59 | 125 | 393 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FOSL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOSL | 77.0% | 91.4% | 1.02 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 2.1% | 19.6% | -0.01 | 32.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 20.3% | 12.9% | 1.16 | 32.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 36.2% | 28.7% | 1.07 | 15.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 44.1% | 20.2% | 1.69 | -3.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.3% | 13.8% | 0.66 | 26.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -38.8% | 43.2% | -1.01 | 17.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FOSL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOSL | -16.0% | 89.2% | 0.19 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 5.9% | 24.1% | 0.20 | 35.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.2% | 0.57 | 33.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.4% | 18.6% | 0.89 | 7.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.2% | 19.6% | 0.40 | 6.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.4% | 18.9% | 0.02 | 30.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 9.3% | 52.7% | 0.36 | 17.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FOSL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOSL | -15.2% | 95.8% | 0.24 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.3% | 22.2% | 0.51 | 29.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 25.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.4% | 16.2% | 0.63 | 3.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.1% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 9.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 22.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 61.0% | 66.1% | 1.01 | 8.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 8/21/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/12/2026 | 5.9% | 8.0% | |
| 5/13/2026 | 6.1% | -3.7% | 7.1% |
| 3/11/2026 | 16.5% | 6.6% | 24.8% |
| 11/13/2025 | -9.3% | 5.2% | 64.8% |
| 8/13/2025 | 29.8% | 63.5% | 72.4% |
| 5/14/2025 | 15.9% | 19.0% | 5.6% |
| 3/12/2025 | 29.1% | 7.1% | -22.6% |
| 11/7/2024 | -8.7% | 3.1% | 66.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 15 | 12 |
| # Negative | 13 | 10 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 16.2% | 15.3% | 46.2% |
| Median Negative | -8.7% | -18.4% | -23.6% |
| Max Positive | 29.8% | 78.8% | 122.6% |
| Max Negative | -37.5% | -36.3% | -41.7% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/12/2026 | 5.9% | 8.0% | |
| 5/13/2026 | 6.1% | -3.7% | 7.1% |
| 3/11/2026 | 16.5% | 6.6% | 24.8% |
| 11/13/2025 | -9.3% | 5.2% | 64.8% |
| 8/13/2025 | 29.8% | 63.5% | 72.4% |
| 5/14/2025 | 15.9% | 19.0% | 5.6% |
| 3/12/2025 | 29.1% | 7.1% | -22.6% |
| 11/7/2024 | -8.7% | 3.1% | 66.1% |
| 8/8/2024 | -2.6% | -6.1% | -10.5% |
| 5/8/2024 | -5.0% | 16.5% | 25.8% |
| 3/13/2024 | -6.5% | 16.6% | 3.6% |
| 11/8/2023 | -32.4% | -26.6% | -26.0% |
| 8/9/2023 | -6.6% | -17.4% | -14.5% |
| 5/10/2023 | -10.9% | -36.3% | -28.6% |
| 3/8/2023 | -10.7% | -17.0% | -22.6% |
| 11/9/2022 | 24.0% | 35.6% | 36.8% |
| 8/10/2022 | -6.5% | -19.4% | -41.7% |
| 5/11/2022 | -5.0% | -10.9% | -18.9% |
| 3/9/2022 | -37.5% | -33.5% | -35.0% |
| 11/10/2021 | 22.7% | 12.1% | -24.6% |
| 8/11/2021 | 9.2% | 3.3% | -3.7% |
| 5/12/2021 | 13.0% | 32.0% | 55.6% |
| 3/10/2021 | -16.3% | -22.0% | -28.0% |
| 11/12/2020 | 24.5% | 78.8% | 122.6% |
| 8/12/2020 | 14.2% | 15.3% | 55.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 15 | 12 |
| # Negative | 13 | 10 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 16.2% | 15.3% | 46.2% |
| Median Negative | -8.7% | -18.4% | -23.6% |
| Max Positive | 29.8% | 78.8% | 122.6% |
| Max Negative | -37.5% | -36.3% | -41.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/13/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/14/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/12/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/14/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/15/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/12/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/13/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/11/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/09/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/13/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/14/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/12/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/13/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/14/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/15/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/12/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/13/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/11/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/09/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/11/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/12/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/10/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/12/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/12/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/13/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/12/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/12/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/13/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 06/10/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/27/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/07/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 8/13/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/12/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Worldwide net sales growth | -5.0% | -4.0% | -3.0% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: -5.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted operating margin | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 4.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Free cash flow | |||||||
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/13/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | -6.0% | -5.0% | -4.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: -5.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Operating Margin | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 4.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 0 for 2026 | ||||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/11/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | -6.0% | -5.0% | -4.0% | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted Operating Margin | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | ||||
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | 0 | ||||||
| 2028 Revenue Growth | 2.0% | 3.5% | 5.0% | ||||
| 2028 Adjusted Operating Margin | 5.0% | 7.0% | 9.0% | ||||
| 2028 Free Cash Flow | |||||||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/13/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Worldwide Net Sales Growth | -15.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: -15.0% for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Adjusted Operating Margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.0% for 2025 | |||
Insider Activity
Updated 8/20/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tifford, Gail B | Direct | Sell | 8202026 | 5.49 | 55,669 | 305,623 | 608,473 | Form | |
| 2 | Schoppert, Wendy Lee | Direct | Buy | 5202026 | 4.14 | 24,331 | 100,730 | 499,387 | Form | |
| 3 | Coulter, Suzanne M | Direct | Buy | 12042025 | 3.62 | 28,170 | 101,975 | 356,414 | Form | |
| 4 | Greben, Randy J | CFO | Direct | Buy | 11252025 | 2.38 | 20,980 | 49,932 | 406,932 | Form |
| 5 | Tifford, Gail B | Direct | Buy | 11242025 | 2.40 | 33,000 | 79,200 | 326,220 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tifford, Gail B | Direct | Sell | 8202026 | 5.49 | 55,669 | 305,623 | 608,473 | Form | |
| 2 | Schoppert, Wendy Lee | Direct | Buy | 5202026 | 4.14 | 24,331 | 100,730 | 499,387 | Form | |
| 3 | Coulter, Suzanne M | Direct | Buy | 12042025 | 3.62 | 28,170 | 101,975 | 356,414 | Form | |
| 4 | Greben, Randy J | CFO | Direct | Buy | 11252025 | 2.38 | 20,980 | 49,932 | 406,932 | Form |
| 5 | Tifford, Gail B | Direct | Buy | 11242025 | 2.40 | 33,000 | 79,200 | 326,220 | Form | |
| 6 | Schoppert, Wendy Lee | Direct | Buy | 11242025 | 2.47 | 41,322 | 102,065 | 108,156 | Form | |
| 7 | Edwards, Pamela J | Direct | Buy | 11212025 | 2.37 | 10,000 | 23,700 | 29,544 | Form | |
| 8 | Martin, Joe T | Chief Commercial Officer | Direct | Buy | 11202025 | 1.78 | 56,180 | 100,000 | 330,655 | Form |
| 9 | Fogliato, Franco | CEO | Direct | Buy | 11192025 | 1.80 | 200,000 | 359,500 | 3,505,125 | Form |
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Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Footwear Resources |
| Footwear News |
| Sneaker News |
| Sole Collector |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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