Meritage Homes (MTH)
Market Price (10/13/2026): $57.89 | Market Cap: $3.8 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Homebuilding
Meritage Homes (MTH)
Market Price (10/13/2026): $57.89Market Cap: $3.8 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Homebuilding
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 3.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.0%, FCF Yield is 11% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Energy Efficient Building Materials, Renewable Integration in Buildings, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -75%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -78% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -13%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -14% Key risksMTH key risks include significant pressure on profitability from [1] weakening buyer demand due to high mortgage rates, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 3.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.0%, FCF Yield is 11% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Energy Efficient Building Materials, Renewable Integration in Buildings, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -75%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -78% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -13%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -14% |
| Key risksMTH key risks include significant pressure on profitability from [1] weakening buyer demand due to high mortgage rates, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Meritage Homes (MTH) stock has lost about 30% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Meritage Homes reported a significant year-over-year decline in its fiscal Q2 2026 earnings and revenue, leading to a downward revision of its full-year guidance. The company's net earnings for fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026) decreased by 38% to $91 million ($1.37 per diluted share) compared to Q2 2025. Adjusted diluted EPS fell to $1.42 from $2.09 in the prior year. Home closing revenue for the quarter declined 14.1% year-over-year to $1.41 billion, falling short of the consensus estimate of $1.43 billion. This was driven by an 11% lower home closing volume and a 3.8% decrease in the average selling price to $373,000. Consequently, Meritage Homes updated its full-year 2026 guidance, expecting home closing volume and revenue to be approximately 5% below 2025 results, with potential for further declines if increased incentives are needed to spur sales. Analysts subsequently revised forward earnings per share (EPS) estimates downward by 13% for Meritage Homes.
2. The broader macroeconomic environment, characterized by elevated and volatile interest rates and worsening housing affordability, significantly dampened buyer demand. The company acknowledged a "softer than expected" spring selling season in fiscal Q2 2026, attributing it to "macroeconomic uncertainty and volatile interest rates" pressuring buyer sentiment. The homebuilding industry continued to face challenges from high interest rates and elevated home prices, which collectively impact housing demand and profit margins. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate, which was around 6.49% in early July 2026, steadily climbed, reaching approximately 7.5% by early October 2026. This surge in mortgage rates led to a substantial slowdown in homebuying activity, with pending sales falling more than 8% year-over-year in September 2026. National forecasts also projected a modest 1% rise in U.S. home prices over the next 12 months from Q3 2026, indicating a slowdown in appreciation.
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Meritage Homes (MTH) stock has lost about 30% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Meritage Homes reported a significant year-over-year decline in its fiscal Q2 2026 earnings and revenue, leading to a downward revision of its full-year guidance. The company's net earnings for fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026) decreased by 38% to $91 million ($1.37 per diluted share) compared to Q2 2025. Adjusted diluted EPS fell to $1.42 from $2.09 in the prior year. Home closing revenue for the quarter declined 14.1% year-over-year to $1.41 billion, falling short of the consensus estimate of $1.43 billion. This was driven by an 11% lower home closing volume and a 3.8% decrease in the average selling price to $373,000. Consequently, Meritage Homes updated its full-year 2026 guidance, expecting home closing volume and revenue to be approximately 5% below 2025 results, with potential for further declines if increased incentives are needed to spur sales. Analysts subsequently revised forward earnings per share (EPS) estimates downward by 13% for Meritage Homes.
2. The broader macroeconomic environment, characterized by elevated and volatile interest rates and worsening housing affordability, significantly dampened buyer demand. The company acknowledged a "softer than expected" spring selling season in fiscal Q2 2026, attributing it to "macroeconomic uncertainty and volatile interest rates" pressuring buyer sentiment. The homebuilding industry continued to face challenges from high interest rates and elevated home prices, which collectively impact housing demand and profit margins. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate, which was around 6.49% in early July 2026, steadily climbed, reaching approximately 7.5% by early October 2026. This surge in mortgage rates led to a substantial slowdown in homebuying activity, with pending sales falling more than 8% year-over-year in September 2026. National forecasts also projected a modest 1% rise in U.S. home prices over the next 12 months from Q3 2026, indicating a slowdown in appreciation.
3. Several Wall Street analysts downgraded Meritage Homes and cut their price targets in response to the challenging market conditions and company performance. In September 2026, Truist Securities downgraded Meritage Homes from a "Buy" to a "Hold" rating and reduced its price target from $80 to $72. Shortly thereafter, on September 25, 2026, Evercore ISI Group also lowered its price target for MTH from $73 to $65. These actions reflect a more cautious outlook on the stock's future performance given the company's Q2 results and the ongoing headwinds in the housing market.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -30.5% change in MTH stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/12/2026 was primarily driven by a -20.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302026 | 10122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 83.23 | 57.85 | -30.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,620 | 5,395 | -4.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.9% | 6.1% | -11.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.5 | 11.6 | -20.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 67 | 66 | 2.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -30.5% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2026 to 10/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MTH | -30.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.2% | 41.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | -4.3% | 44.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -5.1% change in MTH stock from 3/31/2026 to 10/12/2026 was primarily driven by a -21.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 10122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 60.98 | 57.85 | -5.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,861 | 5,395 | -7.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.7% | 6.1% | -21.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 9.3 | 11.6 | 24.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 69 | 66 | 5.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -5.1% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 10/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MTH | -5.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.0% | 34.9% |
| Sector (XLY) | 3.2% | 44.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -17.9% change in MTH stock from 9/30/2025 to 10/12/2026 was primarily driven by a -40.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 10122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 70.45 | 57.85 | -17.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6,219 | 5,395 | -13.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.3% | 6.1% | -40.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 7.9 | 11.6 | 46.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 71 | 66 | 8.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -17.9% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 10/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MTH | -17.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 17.8% | 34.2% |
| Sector (XLY) | -5.7% | 44.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 0.9% change in MTH stock from 9/30/2023 to 10/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 131.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302023 | 10122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 57.34 | 57.85 | 0.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6,439 | 5,395 | -16.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.1% | 6.1% | -53.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 5.0 | 11.6 | 131.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 74 | 66 | 11.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.9% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2023 to 10/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MTH | 0.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 88.3% | 39.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | 42.7% | 47.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MTH Return | 47% | -24% | 91% | -10% | -12% | -9% | 53% |
| Peers Return | 52% | -22% | 86% | 6% | -3% | -11% | 105% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MTH Win Rate | 75% | 50% | 67% | 42% | 42% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 75% | 40% | 63% | 62% | 43% | 42% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MTH Max Drawdown | -25% | -47% | -27% | -29% | -24% | -30% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -19% | -41% | -20% | -26% | -26% | -28% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: DHI, LEN, PHM, NVR, TOL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/12/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MTH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -14.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.4% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 85 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -23.2% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.3% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 20 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -45.2% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 82.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 286 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -61.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 162.7% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 70 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -16.5% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.8% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 37 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -13.5% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.6% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 14 days | 6 days |
In The Past
Meritage Homes's stock fell -14.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 16.4% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | MTH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -23.2% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.3% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 20 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -45.2% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 82.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 286 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -61.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 162.7% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 70 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -39.5% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 65.4% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 620 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -34.9% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 53.6% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 524 days | 15 days |
| 2013 Taper Tantrum | ||
| % Loss | -21.2% | -0.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.9% | 0.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 339 days | 1 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -35.6% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.3% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 63 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -33.1% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.4% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 156 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -59.0% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 143.6% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 147 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -36.5% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.6% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 364 days | 47 days |
In The Past
Meritage Homes's stock fell -14.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 16.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Meritage Homes (MTH)
Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) is a prominent homebuilder in the United States, specializing in the design and construction of single-family residences. The company operates primarily through its Homebuilding segment, which involves the entire process from land acquisition and development to the construction, marketing, and sale of homes.
Meritage Homes' core offering includes new single-family homes, specifically tailored to appeal to first-time homebuyers and those looking to move up from their initial homes. Beyond home construction, the company also provides essential financial services through a separate segment, offering title insurance and closing/settlement services to its homebuyers, streamlining the purchasing process for its customers.
The company strategically focuses its operations across a broad and growing footprint within the Sun Belt and Southeast regions of the U.S. Meritage Homes builds and sells properties under the Meritage Homes brand name in key states such as Texas, Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Tennessee.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Meritage Homes is like a Ford or Toyota for houses, manufacturing new single-family homes for first-time and first move-up buyers across the country.
Meritage Homes is similar to a D.R. Horton or Lennar, designing and building new single-family homes in various U.S. states.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Single-Family Homes: Meritage Homes designs, constructs, markets, and sells single-family homes, primarily to first-time and first move-up buyers.
- Title Insurance: The company provides title insurance services to its homebuyers.
- Closing/Settlement Services: Meritage Homes offers closing and settlement services to facilitate the home purchasing process for its buyers.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) sells primarily to individual homebuyers. Based on the company description, the major categories of customers it serves are:
- First-time buyers
- First move-up buyers
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Phillippe Lord, Chief Executive Officer
Phillippe Lord has served as CEO of Meritage Homes and a Board director since 2021. He previously held the roles of Chief Operating Officer of Meritage Homes from 2015 to 2020 and President of the West Region from 2012 to 2015. Lord began his career at Meritage Homes in 2008 by establishing the company's strategic operations and market research department. Prior to joining Meritage Homes, he held leadership positions with Acacia Capital, Centex Homes, and Pinnacle West Capital.
Hilla Sferruzza, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Hilla Sferruzza has served as Chief Financial Officer of Meritage Homes since 2016. Her prior roles at the company include Chief Accounting Officer (2010-2021) and Corporate Controller (2010-2015). She began her career at Meritage Homes in 2006 in accounting, finance, and financial reporting management. Before joining Meritage, Ms. Sferruzza held various leadership positions at KPMG and Starwood Hotels and Resorts Worldwide, Inc., which was later acquired by Marriott International. She is recognized for her expertise in residential construction, land acquisition, debt and equity capital transactions, M&A and divestiture structures, and financial modeling.
Steven J. Hilton, Executive Chairman of the Board
Steven J. Hilton co-founded Monterey Homes, the predecessor company to Meritage Homes, in 1985. He led Meritage Homes for 35 years as Chairman and CEO until his retirement from the CEO role in January 2021, and continues to serve as Executive Chairman. Under his leadership, Monterey became publicly traded in 1997, and Meritage Homes acquired eight other homebuilding companies between 1997 and 2005.
Javier Feliciano, Chief People Officer
Javier Feliciano has been the Chief People Officer of Meritage Homes since 2015. Before his tenure at Meritage Homes, Mr. Feliciano held leadership positions at companies such as Ford Motor Company, PepsiCo, Apollo Education Group, and Valeo.
Austin Woffinden, Executive Vice President, Corporate Operations and Strategy
Austin Woffinden became Executive Vice President, Corporate Operations and Strategy for Meritage Homes, effective January 1, 2026. He began his career at Meritage in 2007 as a Vice President Regional Counsel and has since held various operational leadership roles, including Area President of Dallas Fort Worth and Nashville, and Division President of Dallas Fort Worth. Prior to joining Meritage, Mr. Woffinden worked at the law firm of Greenberg Traurig, LLP.
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The key risks to Meritage Homes (MTH) are primarily driven by the cyclical nature of the homebuilding industry and current macroeconomic conditions.
- Adverse Housing Market Conditions: Meritage Homes faces significant risk from challenging housing market conditions, including elevated interest rates, high home prices, and reduced affordability. These factors can decrease consumer demand for new homes, making it more difficult to sell properties and exerting downward pressure on sales volumes and revenues. The company's focus on entry-level and first move-up buyers makes it particularly susceptible to affordability headwinds. Delays in interest rate reductions or smaller-than-anticipated cuts would prolong the challenging demand environment.
- Margin Pressure from Incentives and Costs: To stimulate sales in a less favorable market, Meritage Homes often relies on increased incentives and mortgage rate buydowns, which directly erode gross profit margins. Additionally, persistent land inflation and sustained increases in construction costs, including building materials and labor, can further squeeze profitability and disrupt operations.
- Inventory Risk from Spec Home Model: Meritage Homes utilizes a 100% "spec home" model, building homes before securing a buyer to facilitate faster closings. While this strategy can increase market share in certain conditions, it also significantly elevates inventory risk. If housing demand slows unexpectedly, the company could accumulate a large inventory of unsold homes, leading to increased carrying costs, a greater need for price reductions and incentives, and further negative impacts on margins.
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One clear emerging threat for Meritage Homes is the **rapid scaling of advanced off-site construction methods**, such as modular, panelized, or 3D-printed home construction. As these technologies mature, they offer the potential for significantly faster build times, reduced labor costs, and enhanced material efficiency compared to traditional stick-built construction. If competitors or new entrants in Meritage's markets successfully scale these methods to deliver comparable quality homes at lower price points or with greater speed, it could disrupt Meritage's competitive position and challenge its traditional construction model.
Another clear emerging threat is the **aggressive expansion of institutional Build-to-Rent (BTR) single-family home communities**. Meritage targets first-time and first move-up homebuyers. The continued influx of institutional capital into the BTR sector, leading to large-scale development of purpose-built rental communities, could increase competition for suitable land parcels and potentially siphon off a significant portion of Meritage's target demographic who might otherwise purchase a home. This trend represents a shift in consumer preference and accessibility, potentially shrinking the addressable market for traditional for-sale homebuilders.
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- Single-Family Home Construction: The single-family housing construction market in the U.S. was valued at approximately $804.08 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to $845.86 billion in 2026. This market is expected to reach $1.09 trillion by 2030.
- Title Insurance and Closing/Settlement Services: The U.S. title insurance industry's revenue is estimated at $17.1 billion in 2025. The North American title insurance market, which includes the U.S., was valued at an estimated $2 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach $2.8 billion by 2032.
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Meritage Homes (MTH) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:
- Increased Community Count: The company is focused on expanding its community count, with expectations of double-digit year-over-year growth in 2025 and continued growth of 5-10% in 2026. This expansion directly addresses the persistent undersupply of housing in the U.S. and positions Meritage Homes to capture increased new home demand.
- Targeting Entry-Level and First Move-Up Buyers with Move-in Ready Homes and 60-Day Closing Commitments: Meritage Homes specializes in entry-level and first move-up homes, a segment with strong demand due to favorable demographic shifts from Millennials and Gen Z entering homebuying age. The company's "move-in ready" spec home strategy and 60-day closing commitment aim to shorten the sales cycle, provide certainty to buyers, and effectively compete with the resale market, thereby driving sales volume.
- Strategic Land Investments: Meritage Homes is actively investing in land acquisition and development, controlling a significant supply of lots for future homebuilding. These strategic land investments are crucial for supporting the planned increase in community count and overall growth.
- Geographic Expansion and Diversification: The company has expanded its presence nationwide across 12 states, focusing on high-growth markets in the Sunbelt. Meritage Homes is also exploring new endeavors like build-to-rent (BTR), which can further contribute to addressing housing affordability and generating revenue.
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Capital Allocation Decisions (2021-2025) for Meritage Homes (MTH)
Share Repurchases
- Meritage Homes repurchased approximately $294.999 million in shares in 2025. As of November 20, 2025, $536 million remained available under the authorized share repurchase program, with plans to increase quarterly repurchases to $100 million in 2026.
- In 2024, the company's annual share buybacks totaled $125.932 million.
- For 2022, Meritage Homes repurchased 1,166,040 shares of common stock for $109.3 million.
Share Issuance
- The number of shares outstanding has generally declined over the past 3-5 years, reflecting net repurchases rather than significant issuances for capital raising. For example, shares outstanding declined by 2.71% in 2025 from 2024, and by 1.09% in 2024 from 2023.
- A two-for-one stock split was completed in January 2025, which increased the number of shares but did not represent an issuance of new equity for capital.
Outbound Investments
- In the fourth quarter of 2024, Meritage Homes completed the acquisition of Elliott Homes, a private builder. This acquisition added approximately 5,500 lots and expanded Meritage Homes' presence into new markets like Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida panhandle.
Capital Expenditures
- Meritage Homes allocated $2.5 billion towards land acquisition and development in 2024, an increase from $1.9 billion in 2023.
- In 2022, approximately $1.5 billion was invested in land acquisition and development.
- The company expects reduced land acquisition and development spend in 2026.
Peer Outperformance in Homebuilding
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top null by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education Services | 14 | -16.3% | 86.3% | 88.7% | CVSA 267% · PRDO 235% · LRN 145% |
| Homebuilding ← | 18 | -4.8% | 31.7% | 44.8% | GRBK 189% · TOL 144% · PHM 143% |
| Specialty Stores | 7 | 10.9% | 37.6% | 18.7% | ASO 42% · DKS 35% · FIVE 19% |
| Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines | 21 | 10.5% | 37.4% | 10.6% | RCL 227% · MAR 145% · LIND 137% |
| Home Furnishings | 3 | -4.6% | 44.6% | -0.9% | SGI 47% · MHK -35% |
| Home Improvement Retail | 5 | -20.5% | 0.7% | -2.6% | HD -2% · LOW -3% · FND -63% |
| Footwear | 9 | 75.0% | 49.7% | -10.1% | DECK 49% · SHOO 20% · CROX -10% |
| Automotive Retail | 18 | -13.0% | 4.7% | -10.7% | MUSA 233% · PAG 115% · ORLY 113% |
| Specialized Consumer Services | 10 | -13.5% | 14.0% | -15.4% | HRB 110% · FTDR 84% · SCI 37% |
| Distributors | 4 | -8.2% | -27.1% | -16.1% | ARMK 117% · GPC 20% · LKQ -52% |
| Restaurants | 36 | -9.4% | -6.5% | -17.8% | EAT 291% · CAKE 169% · TXRH 90% |
| Computer & Electronics Retail | 3 | 16.9% | 44.9% | -38.1% | BBY 1% · GME -38% |
| Apparel Retail | 26 | 11.6% | 20.1% | -39.6% | ANF 277% · TJX 142% · ROST 125% |
| Household Appliances | 18 | 4.0% | 1.7% | -39.7% | |
| Automotive Parts & Equipment | 38 | -5.8% | -13.2% | -40.8% | MOD 1328% · GTX 262% · BWA 55% |
| Leisure Facilities | 12 | 7.4% | -7.5% | -41.3% | LTH 134% · OSW 125% · PLNT -40% |
| Broadline Retail | 13 | 8.1% | 32.5% | -41.6% | EBAY 68% · AMZN 60% · OLLI 42% |
| Leisure Products | 13 | -21.0% | -20.9% | -42.3% | GOLF 83% · HAS 32% · MAT -12% |
| Casinos & Gaming | 20 | -8.6% | -23.4% | -49.7% | MCRI 92% · RRR 12% · BYD 9% |
| Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods | 29 | 4.4% | 17.9% | -49.9% | RL 258% · TPR 247% · KTB 61% |
| Consumer Electronics | 11 | -23.1% | -21.5% | -74.9% | GRMN 92% · SONO -44% |
| Other Specialty Retail | 17 | -33.6% | -37.3% | -77.5% | ULTA 47% · TSCO -5% · BBWI -69% |
| Automobile Manufacturers | 8 | -74.6% | -54.8% | -78.8% | GM 46% · TSLA 41% · F 5% |
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| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 121.65 |
| Mkt Cap | 16.7 |
| Rev LTM | 13,583 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,644 |
| FCF LTM | 1,068 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,282 |
| CFO LTM | 1,129 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,371 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -7.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -1.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | -9.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -2.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -25.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -12.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 15.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 9.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 16.7 |
| P/S | 1.1 |
| P/Op Inc | 9.8 |
| P/EBIT | 9.4 |
| P/E | 12.0 |
| P/CFO | 12.1 |
| Total Yield | 10.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.8% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Homebuilding | 5,824 | 6,364 | 6,113 | 6,269 | 5,120 |
| Financial Services | 33 | 31 | 25 | 23 | 21 |
| Earnings/(loss) from financial services unconsolidated entities and other, net | 3 | -2 | -1 | 6 | 6 |
| Total | 5,861 | 6,393 | 6,138 | 6,298 | 5,147 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Homebuilding | 562 | 1,011 | 955 | 1,309 | 1,001 |
| Financial Services | 19 | 14 | 12 | 18 | 18 |
| Corporate and unallocated costs | -40 | -67 | -65 | -40 | -51 |
| Total | 540 | 958 | 902 | 1,287 | 968 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Homebuilding | 6,643 | 6,339 | 5,326 | ||
| Corporate and Unallocated | 977 | 821 | 1,026 | 852 | 608 |
| Financial Services | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Homebuilding - Central | 1,552 | 1,290 | |||
| Homebuilding - East | 1,470 | 1,243 | |||
| Homebuilding - West | 1,897 | 1,665 | |||
| Total | 7,622 | 7,163 | 6,353 | 5,772 | 4,808 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $57.85 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 3.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/16/1988 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -31.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $67.21 | $68.59 |
| DMA Trend | down | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | -13.9% | -15.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 36.7% | 38.2% |
| Downside Capture | 271.56 | 129.75 |
| Upside Capture | 97.29 | 92.26 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 41.8% | 35.3% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.88 | 2.00 | 1.53 | 1.17 | 1.03 | 0.99 |
| Up Beta | 1.00 | 1.36 | 0.49 | 1.25 | 1.26 | 1.00 |
| Down Beta | 4.10 | 3.41 | 1.66 | 1.11 | 1.05 | 0.63 |
| Up Capture | 128% | 164% | 113% | 99% | 71% | 119% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 6 | 16 | 27 | 66 | 132 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 30 | 64 | 122 | 368 |
| Down Capture | 273% | 270% | 256% | 133% | 108% | 107% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 16 | 26 | 37 | 60 | 120 | 328 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 34 | 62 | 129 | 379 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTH | -12.5% | 38.2% | -0.27 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | -4.0% | 19.4% | -0.34 | 45.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 17.0% | 13.0% | 0.93 | 34.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 4.6% | 29.5% | 0.15 | 14.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 48.0% | 20.9% | 1.77 | -33.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.2% | 13.8% | 0.19 | 50.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -32.3% | 44.3% | -0.76 | 3.0% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTH | 5.1% | 39.0% | 0.22 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 5.4% | 24.1% | 0.18 | 53.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.1% | 17.1% | 0.63 | 49.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.3% | 18.9% | 0.78 | 12.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.9% | 19.5% | 0.39 | -1.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.5% | 18.8% | -0.03 | 56.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 11.0% | 52.0% | 0.39 | 21.0% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTH | 13.6% | 42.8% | 0.44 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.0% | 22.2% | 0.49 | 55.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 53.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.8% | 16.4% | 0.58 | 12.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.3% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 12.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.6% | 20.7% | 0.18 | 56.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.4% | 66.2% | 1.03 | 15.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 8/31/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/29/2026 | -1.1% | 4.7% | -1.5% |
| 4/22/2026 | 1.7% | -2.5% | -7.0% |
| 1/28/2026 | 1.1% | 9.0% | 9.0% |
| 10/28/2025 | -5.6% | -8.1% | 4.1% |
| 7/23/2025 | -5.0% | -9.1% | 0.1% |
| 4/23/2025 | 1.0% | -0.1% | -5.7% |
| 1/29/2025 | 2.8% | -2.1% | -8.1% |
| 10/29/2024 | -1.7% | 5.7% | 4.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 15 | 13 |
| # Negative | 9 | 9 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 3.6% | 5.7% | 8.5% |
| Median Negative | -5.0% | -7.4% | -4.7% |
| Max Positive | 11.7% | 16.6% | 23.9% |
| Max Negative | -7.8% | -10.9% | -10.5% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/29/2026 | -1.1% | 4.7% | -1.5% |
| 4/22/2026 | 1.7% | -2.5% | -7.0% |
| 1/28/2026 | 1.1% | 9.0% | 9.0% |
| 10/28/2025 | -5.6% | -8.1% | 4.1% |
| 7/23/2025 | -5.0% | -9.1% | 0.1% |
| 4/23/2025 | 1.0% | -0.1% | -5.7% |
| 1/29/2025 | 2.8% | -2.1% | -8.1% |
| 10/29/2024 | -1.7% | 5.7% | 4.9% |
| 7/24/2024 | 0.9% | 5.9% | 0.7% |
| 4/24/2024 | 6.7% | 7.7% | 11.6% |
| 1/31/2024 | -7.3% | -7.4% | -3.6% |
| 10/31/2023 | 7.0% | 16.6% | 23.9% |
| 7/27/2023 | 8.7% | 4.5% | -3.8% |
| 4/26/2023 | 0.3% | 3.5% | -2.2% |
| 2/1/2023 | 6.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| 10/26/2022 | 2.3% | 2.1% | 18.6% |
| 7/27/2022 | -0.4% | -4.0% | -4.7% |
| 4/27/2022 | 6.4% | 12.3% | 6.8% |
| 1/26/2022 | -1.8% | 0.5% | -2.7% |
| 10/27/2021 | 3.6% | 3.3% | 8.5% |
| 7/28/2021 | 11.7% | 14.0% | 14.6% |
| 4/28/2021 | 11.7% | 15.0% | 13.1% |
| 1/27/2021 | -7.8% | -8.6% | -9.6% |
| 10/21/2020 | -6.7% | -10.9% | -10.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 15 | 13 |
| # Negative | 9 | 9 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 3.6% | 5.7% | 8.5% |
| Median Negative | -5.0% | -7.4% | -4.7% |
| Max Positive | 11.7% | 16.6% | 23.9% |
| Max Negative | -7.8% | -10.9% | -10.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/31/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/24/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/13/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/14/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/15/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/31/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/24/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/13/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/14/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/15/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/16/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/29/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/30/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/30/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/12/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/27/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/27/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/01/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/18/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/28/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 10/4/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/29/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Home Closing Volume Growth | Reported | -5.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Community Count Growth | Reported | 5.0% | 7.5% | Affirmed | ||||
| 2026 Home Closing Revenue Growth | Reported | -5.0% | ||||||
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/22/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Home Closing Volume | Reported | 13668 | ||||||
| 2026 Home Closing Revenue | Reported | 5.12 Bil | ||||||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/28/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Share Repurchases | Reported | 400.00 Mil | ||||||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/28/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Home closing volume | Reported | 3800 | 3900 | 4000 | ||||
| Q4 2025 Home closing revenue | Reported | 1.46 Bil | 1.50 Bil | 1.54 Bil | ||||
| Q4 2025 Gross Profit | Calculated | 277.40 Mil | 292.50 Mil | 308.00 Mil | Rev x Gross Margin | |||
| Q4 2025 Home closing gross margin | Reported | 19.0% | 19.5% | 20.0% | ||||
| Q4 2025 Effective tax rate | Reported | 24.5% | ||||||
| Q4 2025 Diluted EPS | Reported | 1.51 | 1.61 | 1.7 | ||||
Insider Activity
Updated 5/13/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sasser, Alison | SVP - Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 5132026 | 62.11 | 1,273 | 79,066 | 474,148 | Form |
| 2 | Sasser, Alison | SVP - Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 2252026 | 76.80 | 151 | 11,597 | 684,058 | Form |
| 3 | Woffinden, Austin M | EVP, Corp. Ops & Strategy | Direct | Sell | 2252026 | 76.80 | 143 | 10,982 | 1,581,696 | Form |
| 4 | Hilton, Steven J | Executive Chairman | Held in Family Trusts and Charitable Foundation | Sell | 2252026 | 76.13 | 4,835 | 368,107 | 64,074,439 | Form |
| 5 | Clinton, Malissia | EVP - Gen. Counsel, Secretary | Direct | Sell | 2252026 | 76.11 | 5,185 | 394,617 | 1,461,491 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sasser, Alison | SVP - Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 5132026 | 62.11 | 1,273 | 79,066 | 474,148 | Form |
| 2 | Sasser, Alison | SVP - Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 2252026 | 76.80 | 151 | 11,597 | 684,058 | Form |
| 3 | Woffinden, Austin M | EVP, Corp. Ops & Strategy | Direct | Sell | 2252026 | 76.80 | 143 | 10,982 | 1,581,696 | Form |
| 4 | Hilton, Steven J | Executive Chairman | Held in Family Trusts and Charitable Foundation | Sell | 2252026 | 76.13 | 4,835 | 368,107 | 64,074,439 | Form |
| 5 | Clinton, Malissia | EVP - Gen. Counsel, Secretary | Direct | Sell | 2252026 | 76.11 | 5,185 | 394,617 | 1,461,491 | Form |
| 6 | Feliciano, Javier | EVP Chief People Officer | HELD IN TRUST | Sell | 2252026 | 76.24 | 3,580 | 272,931 | 3,425,739 | Form |
| 7 | Sferruzza, Hilla | EVP- Chief Financial Officer | HELD IN FAMILY TRUSTS | Sell | 2252026 | 76.35 | 10,928 | 834,329 | 9,540,502 | Form |
| 8 | Lord, Phillippe | Chief Executive Officer | Limited Partnership | Sell | 2252026 | 76.49 | 32,820 | 2,510,538 | 19,918,236 | Form |
| 9 | Woffinden, Austin M | EVP, Corp. Ops & Strategy | Direct | Sell | 2232026 | 78.16 | 263 | 20,556 | 1,580,004 | Form |
| 10 | Sasser, Alison | SVP - Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 2232026 | 78.16 | 158 | 12,349 | 664,985 | Form |
| 11 | Woffinden, Austin M | EVP, Corp. Ops & Strategy | Direct | Sell | 2192026 | 79.46 | 647 | 51,411 | 1,551,298 | Form |
| 12 | Lord, Phillippe | Chief Executive Officer | Limited Partnership | Sell | 2192026 | 80.07 | 5,000 | 400,350 | 17,320,742 | Form |
| 13 | Sasser, Alison | SVP - Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 2192026 | 79.46 | 680 | 54,033 | 643,070 | Form |
| 14 | Lord, Phillippe | Chief Executive Officer | Limited Partnership and Limited Liability Company | Sell | 8222025 | 80.01 | 6,950 | 556,070 | 17,707,813 | Form |
| 15 | Clinton, Malissia | EVP - Gen. Counsel, Secretary | Direct | Sell | 8122025 | 71.59 | 6,518 | 466,620 | 626,336 | Form |
| 16 | Arriola, Dennis V | HELD IN TRUST | Buy | 7292025 | 70.00 | 2,200 | 154,000 | 665,840 | Form | |
| 17 | Arriola, Dennis V | HELD IN TRUST | Buy | 7292025 | 77.21 | 20 | 1,544 | 557,456 | Form | |
| 18 | Keough, Joseph | Direct | Buy | 6122025 | 66.16 | 4,000 | 264,640 | 2,758,872 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Oct 13, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager |
|---|
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Homebuilding Resources |
| Builder Online |
| Professional Builder |
| HousingWire |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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