Meritage Homes (MTH)


Market Price (10/13/2026): $57.89 | Market Cap: $3.8 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Homebuilding

Meritage Homes (MTH)


Market Price (10/13/2026): $57.89
Market Cap: $3.8 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Homebuilding

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 3.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.0%, FCF Yield is 11%

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 38%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Energy Efficient Building Materials, Renewable Integration in Buildings, Show more.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -75%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -78%

Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -13%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -14%

Key risks
MTH key risks include significant pressure on profitability from [1] weakening buyer demand due to high mortgage rates, Show more.

0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 3.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.0%, FCF Yield is 11%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 38%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Energy Efficient Building Materials, Renewable Integration in Buildings, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -75%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -78%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -13%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -14%
5 Key risks
MTH key risks include significant pressure on profitability from [1] weakening buyer demand due to high mortgage rates, Show more.

MTH in ETFs

Weight = MTH's share of each fund

VTI0.01%
ITOT0.01%
IWM0.13%
IJR0.23%
VYM0.02%
VB0.05%
VIOV0.50%
SLYV0.43%
+14 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 10/7/2026

Meritage Homes (MTH) stock has lost about 30% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Meritage Homes reported a significant year-over-year decline in its fiscal Q2 2026 earnings and revenue, leading to a downward revision of its full-year guidance. The company's net earnings for fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026) decreased by 38% to $91 million ($1.37 per diluted share) compared to Q2 2025. Adjusted diluted EPS fell to $1.42 from $2.09 in the prior year. Home closing revenue for the quarter declined 14.1% year-over-year to $1.41 billion, falling short of the consensus estimate of $1.43 billion. This was driven by an 11% lower home closing volume and a 3.8% decrease in the average selling price to $373,000. Consequently, Meritage Homes updated its full-year 2026 guidance, expecting home closing volume and revenue to be approximately 5% below 2025 results, with potential for further declines if increased incentives are needed to spur sales. Analysts subsequently revised forward earnings per share (EPS) estimates downward by 13% for Meritage Homes.

2. The broader macroeconomic environment, characterized by elevated and volatile interest rates and worsening housing affordability, significantly dampened buyer demand. The company acknowledged a "softer than expected" spring selling season in fiscal Q2 2026, attributing it to "macroeconomic uncertainty and volatile interest rates" pressuring buyer sentiment. The homebuilding industry continued to face challenges from high interest rates and elevated home prices, which collectively impact housing demand and profit margins. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate, which was around 6.49% in early July 2026, steadily climbed, reaching approximately 7.5% by early October 2026. This surge in mortgage rates led to a substantial slowdown in homebuying activity, with pending sales falling more than 8% year-over-year in September 2026. National forecasts also projected a modest 1% rise in U.S. home prices over the next 12 months from Q3 2026, indicating a slowdown in appreciation.

Show more
Updated on 10/7/2026

Meritage Homes (MTH) stock has lost about 30% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Meritage Homes reported a significant year-over-year decline in its fiscal Q2 2026 earnings and revenue, leading to a downward revision of its full-year guidance. The company's net earnings for fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026) decreased by 38% to $91 million ($1.37 per diluted share) compared to Q2 2025. Adjusted diluted EPS fell to $1.42 from $2.09 in the prior year. Home closing revenue for the quarter declined 14.1% year-over-year to $1.41 billion, falling short of the consensus estimate of $1.43 billion. This was driven by an 11% lower home closing volume and a 3.8% decrease in the average selling price to $373,000. Consequently, Meritage Homes updated its full-year 2026 guidance, expecting home closing volume and revenue to be approximately 5% below 2025 results, with potential for further declines if increased incentives are needed to spur sales. Analysts subsequently revised forward earnings per share (EPS) estimates downward by 13% for Meritage Homes.

2. The broader macroeconomic environment, characterized by elevated and volatile interest rates and worsening housing affordability, significantly dampened buyer demand. The company acknowledged a "softer than expected" spring selling season in fiscal Q2 2026, attributing it to "macroeconomic uncertainty and volatile interest rates" pressuring buyer sentiment. The homebuilding industry continued to face challenges from high interest rates and elevated home prices, which collectively impact housing demand and profit margins. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate, which was around 6.49% in early July 2026, steadily climbed, reaching approximately 7.5% by early October 2026. This surge in mortgage rates led to a substantial slowdown in homebuying activity, with pending sales falling more than 8% year-over-year in September 2026. National forecasts also projected a modest 1% rise in U.S. home prices over the next 12 months from Q3 2026, indicating a slowdown in appreciation.

3. Several Wall Street analysts downgraded Meritage Homes and cut their price targets in response to the challenging market conditions and company performance. In September 2026, Truist Securities downgraded Meritage Homes from a "Buy" to a "Hold" rating and reduced its price target from $80 to $72. Shortly thereafter, on September 25, 2026, Evercore ISI Group also lowered its price target for MTH from $73 to $65. These actions reflect a more cautious outlook on the stock's future performance given the company's Q2 results and the ongoing headwinds in the housing market.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -30.5% change in MTH stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/12/2026 was primarily driven by a -20.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)630202610122026Change
Stock Price ($)83.2357.85-30.5%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)5,6205,395-4.0%
Net Income Margin (%)6.9%6.1%-11.0%
P/E Multiple14.511.6-20.5%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)67662.4%
Cumulative Contribution-30.5%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/30/2026 to 10/12/2026
ReturnCorrelation
MTH-30.5% 
Market (SPY)4.2%41.3%
Sector (XLY)-4.3%44.3%

Fundamental Drivers

The -5.1% change in MTH stock from 3/31/2026 to 10/12/2026 was primarily driven by a -21.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)331202610122026Change
Stock Price ($)60.9857.85-5.1%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)5,8615,395-7.9%
Net Income Margin (%)7.7%6.1%-21.1%
P/E Multiple9.311.624.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)69665.2%
Cumulative Contribution-5.1%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2026 to 10/12/2026
ReturnCorrelation
MTH-5.1% 
Market (SPY)20.0%34.9%
Sector (XLY)3.2%44.6%

Fundamental Drivers

The -17.9% change in MTH stock from 9/30/2025 to 10/12/2026 was primarily driven by a -40.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)930202510122026Change
Stock Price ($)70.4557.85-17.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)6,2195,395-13.2%
Net Income Margin (%)10.3%6.1%-40.5%
P/E Multiple7.911.646.6%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)71668.6%
Cumulative Contribution-17.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

9/30/2025 to 10/12/2026
ReturnCorrelation
MTH-17.9% 
Market (SPY)17.8%34.2%
Sector (XLY)-5.7%44.9%

Fundamental Drivers

The 0.9% change in MTH stock from 9/30/2023 to 10/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 131.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)930202310122026Change
Stock Price ($)57.3457.850.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)6,4395,395-16.2%
Net Income Margin (%)13.1%6.1%-53.4%
P/E Multiple5.011.6131.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)746611.8%
Cumulative Contribution0.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

9/30/2023 to 10/12/2026
ReturnCorrelation
MTH0.9% 
Market (SPY)88.3%39.0%
Sector (XLY)42.7%47.0%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
MTH Return47%-24%91%-10%-12%-9%53%
Peers Return52%-22%86%6%-3%-11%105%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MTH Win Rate75%50%67%42%42%40% 
Peers Win Rate75%40%63%62%43%42% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%50% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MTH Max Drawdown-25%-47%-27%-29%-24%-30% 
Peers Max Drawdown-19%-41%-20%-26%-26%-28% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: DHI, LEN, PHM, NVR, TOL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/12/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventMTHS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-14.1%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven16.4%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven85 days79 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-23.2%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven30.3%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven20 days24 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-45.2%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven82.6%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven286 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-61.9%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven162.7%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven70 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-16.5%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven19.8%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven37 days105 days
2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff
  % Loss-13.5%-3.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven15.6%3.9%
  Time to Breakeven14 days6 days

Compare to DHI, LEN, PHM, NVR, TOL

In The Past

Meritage Homes's stock fell -14.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 16.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventMTHS&P 500
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-23.2%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven30.3%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven20 days24 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-45.2%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven82.6%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven286 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-61.9%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven162.7%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven70 days140 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-39.5%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven65.4%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven620 days62 days
2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse
  % Loss-34.9%-6.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven53.6%7.3%
  Time to Breakeven524 days15 days
2013 Taper Tantrum
  % Loss-21.2%-0.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven26.9%0.2%
  Time to Breakeven339 days1 days
2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion
  % Loss-35.6%-17.9%
  % Gain to Breakeven55.3%21.8%
  Time to Breakeven63 days123 days
2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash
  % Loss-33.1%-15.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven49.4%18.2%
  Time to Breakeven156 days125 days
2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis
  % Loss-59.0%-53.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven143.6%114.4%
  Time to Breakeven147 days1085 days
Summer 2007 Credit Crunch
  % Loss-36.5%-8.6%
  % Gain to Breakeven57.6%9.5%
  Time to Breakeven364 days47 days

Compare to DHI, LEN, PHM, NVR, TOL

In The Past

Meritage Homes's stock fell -14.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 16.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Meritage Homes (MTH)

Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) is a prominent homebuilder in the United States, specializing in the design and construction of single-family residences. The company operates primarily through its Homebuilding segment, which involves the entire process from land acquisition and development to the construction, marketing, and sale of homes.

Meritage Homes' core offering includes new single-family homes, specifically tailored to appeal to first-time homebuyers and those looking to move up from their initial homes. Beyond home construction, the company also provides essential financial services through a separate segment, offering title insurance and closing/settlement services to its homebuyers, streamlining the purchasing process for its customers.

The company strategically focuses its operations across a broad and growing footprint within the Sun Belt and Southeast regions of the U.S. Meritage Homes builds and sells properties under the Meritage Homes brand name in key states such as Texas, Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Tennessee.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Meritage Homes is like a Ford or Toyota for houses, manufacturing new single-family homes for first-time and first move-up buyers across the country.

Meritage Homes is similar to a D.R. Horton or Lennar, designing and building new single-family homes in various U.S. states.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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  • Single-Family Homes: Meritage Homes designs, constructs, markets, and sells single-family homes, primarily to first-time and first move-up buyers.
  • Title Insurance: The company provides title insurance services to its homebuyers.
  • Closing/Settlement Services: Meritage Homes offers closing and settlement services to facilitate the home purchasing process for its buyers.
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AI Analysis | Feedback

Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) sells primarily to individual homebuyers. Based on the company description, the major categories of customers it serves are:

  • First-time buyers
  • First move-up buyers

AI Analysis | Feedback

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AI Analysis | Feedback

Phillippe Lord, Chief Executive Officer

Phillippe Lord has served as CEO of Meritage Homes and a Board director since 2021. He previously held the roles of Chief Operating Officer of Meritage Homes from 2015 to 2020 and President of the West Region from 2012 to 2015. Lord began his career at Meritage Homes in 2008 by establishing the company's strategic operations and market research department. Prior to joining Meritage Homes, he held leadership positions with Acacia Capital, Centex Homes, and Pinnacle West Capital.

Hilla Sferruzza, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Hilla Sferruzza has served as Chief Financial Officer of Meritage Homes since 2016. Her prior roles at the company include Chief Accounting Officer (2010-2021) and Corporate Controller (2010-2015). She began her career at Meritage Homes in 2006 in accounting, finance, and financial reporting management. Before joining Meritage, Ms. Sferruzza held various leadership positions at KPMG and Starwood Hotels and Resorts Worldwide, Inc., which was later acquired by Marriott International. She is recognized for her expertise in residential construction, land acquisition, debt and equity capital transactions, M&A and divestiture structures, and financial modeling.

Steven J. Hilton, Executive Chairman of the Board

Steven J. Hilton co-founded Monterey Homes, the predecessor company to Meritage Homes, in 1985. He led Meritage Homes for 35 years as Chairman and CEO until his retirement from the CEO role in January 2021, and continues to serve as Executive Chairman. Under his leadership, Monterey became publicly traded in 1997, and Meritage Homes acquired eight other homebuilding companies between 1997 and 2005.

Javier Feliciano, Chief People Officer

Javier Feliciano has been the Chief People Officer of Meritage Homes since 2015. Before his tenure at Meritage Homes, Mr. Feliciano held leadership positions at companies such as Ford Motor Company, PepsiCo, Apollo Education Group, and Valeo.

Austin Woffinden, Executive Vice President, Corporate Operations and Strategy

Austin Woffinden became Executive Vice President, Corporate Operations and Strategy for Meritage Homes, effective January 1, 2026. He began his career at Meritage in 2007 as a Vice President Regional Counsel and has since held various operational leadership roles, including Area President of Dallas Fort Worth and Nashville, and Division President of Dallas Fort Worth. Prior to joining Meritage, Mr. Woffinden worked at the law firm of Greenberg Traurig, LLP.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The key risks to Meritage Homes (MTH) are primarily driven by the cyclical nature of the homebuilding industry and current macroeconomic conditions.

  1. Adverse Housing Market Conditions: Meritage Homes faces significant risk from challenging housing market conditions, including elevated interest rates, high home prices, and reduced affordability. These factors can decrease consumer demand for new homes, making it more difficult to sell properties and exerting downward pressure on sales volumes and revenues. The company's focus on entry-level and first move-up buyers makes it particularly susceptible to affordability headwinds. Delays in interest rate reductions or smaller-than-anticipated cuts would prolong the challenging demand environment.
  2. Margin Pressure from Incentives and Costs: To stimulate sales in a less favorable market, Meritage Homes often relies on increased incentives and mortgage rate buydowns, which directly erode gross profit margins. Additionally, persistent land inflation and sustained increases in construction costs, including building materials and labor, can further squeeze profitability and disrupt operations.
  3. Inventory Risk from Spec Home Model: Meritage Homes utilizes a 100% "spec home" model, building homes before securing a buyer to facilitate faster closings. While this strategy can increase market share in certain conditions, it also significantly elevates inventory risk. If housing demand slows unexpectedly, the company could accumulate a large inventory of unsold homes, leading to increased carrying costs, a greater need for price reductions and incentives, and further negative impacts on margins.

AI Analysis | Feedback

One clear emerging threat for Meritage Homes is the **rapid scaling of advanced off-site construction methods**, such as modular, panelized, or 3D-printed home construction. As these technologies mature, they offer the potential for significantly faster build times, reduced labor costs, and enhanced material efficiency compared to traditional stick-built construction. If competitors or new entrants in Meritage's markets successfully scale these methods to deliver comparable quality homes at lower price points or with greater speed, it could disrupt Meritage's competitive position and challenge its traditional construction model.

Another clear emerging threat is the **aggressive expansion of institutional Build-to-Rent (BTR) single-family home communities**. Meritage targets first-time and first move-up homebuyers. The continued influx of institutional capital into the BTR sector, leading to large-scale development of purpose-built rental communities, could increase competition for suitable land parcels and potentially siphon off a significant portion of Meritage's target demographic who might otherwise purchase a home. This trend represents a shift in consumer preference and accessibility, potentially shrinking the addressable market for traditional for-sale homebuilders.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Meritage Homes (MTH) operates within the U.S. single-family home construction market and provides title insurance and closing/settlement services. The addressable market sizes for Meritage Homes' main products and services in the United States are:
  • Single-Family Home Construction: The single-family housing construction market in the U.S. was valued at approximately $804.08 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to $845.86 billion in 2026. This market is expected to reach $1.09 trillion by 2030.
  • Title Insurance and Closing/Settlement Services: The U.S. title insurance industry's revenue is estimated at $17.1 billion in 2025. The North American title insurance market, which includes the U.S., was valued at an estimated $2 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach $2.8 billion by 2032.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Meritage Homes (MTH) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:

  1. Increased Community Count: The company is focused on expanding its community count, with expectations of double-digit year-over-year growth in 2025 and continued growth of 5-10% in 2026. This expansion directly addresses the persistent undersupply of housing in the U.S. and positions Meritage Homes to capture increased new home demand.
  2. Targeting Entry-Level and First Move-Up Buyers with Move-in Ready Homes and 60-Day Closing Commitments: Meritage Homes specializes in entry-level and first move-up homes, a segment with strong demand due to favorable demographic shifts from Millennials and Gen Z entering homebuying age. The company's "move-in ready" spec home strategy and 60-day closing commitment aim to shorten the sales cycle, provide certainty to buyers, and effectively compete with the resale market, thereby driving sales volume.
  3. Strategic Land Investments: Meritage Homes is actively investing in land acquisition and development, controlling a significant supply of lots for future homebuilding. These strategic land investments are crucial for supporting the planned increase in community count and overall growth.
  4. Geographic Expansion and Diversification: The company has expanded its presence nationwide across 12 states, focusing on high-growth markets in the Sunbelt. Meritage Homes is also exploring new endeavors like build-to-rent (BTR), which can further contribute to addressing housing affordability and generating revenue.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Capital Allocation Decisions (2021-2025) for Meritage Homes (MTH)

Share Repurchases

  • Meritage Homes repurchased approximately $294.999 million in shares in 2025. As of November 20, 2025, $536 million remained available under the authorized share repurchase program, with plans to increase quarterly repurchases to $100 million in 2026.
  • In 2024, the company's annual share buybacks totaled $125.932 million.
  • For 2022, Meritage Homes repurchased 1,166,040 shares of common stock for $109.3 million.

Share Issuance

  • The number of shares outstanding has generally declined over the past 3-5 years, reflecting net repurchases rather than significant issuances for capital raising. For example, shares outstanding declined by 2.71% in 2025 from 2024, and by 1.09% in 2024 from 2023.
  • A two-for-one stock split was completed in January 2025, which increased the number of shares but did not represent an issuance of new equity for capital.

Outbound Investments

  • In the fourth quarter of 2024, Meritage Homes completed the acquisition of Elliott Homes, a private builder. This acquisition added approximately 5,500 lots and expanded Meritage Homes' presence into new markets like Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida panhandle.

Capital Expenditures

  • Meritage Homes allocated $2.5 billion towards land acquisition and development in 2024, an increase from $1.9 billion in 2023.
  • In 2022, approximately $1.5 billion was invested in land acquisition and development.
  • The company expects reduced land acquisition and development spend in 2026.

Better Bets vs. Meritage Homes (MTH)

Peer Outperformance in Homebuilding

MTH has trailed 65% of its 17 Homebuilding peers over 5Y. Homebuilding ranks 2nd of 23 industries in Consumer Discretionary by median 5Y return. That makes it one of the strongest corners of the sector.
Share of Homebuilding constituents that MTH has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
35%
of 17 industry peers · -10.6% return
3Y
35%
of 17 industry peers · 9.2% return
5Y
35%
of 17 industry peers · 25.3% return
No Homebuilding peer with a comparable growth profile has beaten MTH by more than 20pp over 5Y.
Median price return by industry across the Consumer Discretionary sector, ranked by 5Y. Homebuilding is MTH's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
Industry Names 1Y med3Y med5Y med Top null by 5Y
Education Services 14 -16.3%86.3%88.7% CVSA 267% · PRDO 235% · LRN 145%
Homebuilding ← 18 -4.8%31.7%44.8% GRBK 189% · TOL 144% · PHM 143%
Specialty Stores 7 10.9%37.6%18.7% ASO 42% · DKS 35% · FIVE 19%
Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines 21 10.5%37.4%10.6% RCL 227% · MAR 145% · LIND 137%
Home Furnishings 3 -4.6%44.6%-0.9% SGI 47% · MHK -35%
Home Improvement Retail 5 -20.5%0.7%-2.6% HD -2% · LOW -3% · FND -63%
Footwear 9 75.0%49.7%-10.1% DECK 49% · SHOO 20% · CROX -10%
Automotive Retail 18 -13.0%4.7%-10.7% MUSA 233% · PAG 115% · ORLY 113%
Specialized Consumer Services 10 -13.5%14.0%-15.4% HRB 110% · FTDR 84% · SCI 37%
Distributors 4 -8.2%-27.1%-16.1% ARMK 117% · GPC 20% · LKQ -52%
Restaurants 36 -9.4%-6.5%-17.8% EAT 291% · CAKE 169% · TXRH 90%
Computer & Electronics Retail 3 16.9%44.9%-38.1% BBY 1% · GME -38%
Apparel Retail 26 11.6%20.1%-39.6% ANF 277% · TJX 142% · ROST 125%
Household Appliances 18 4.0%1.7%-39.7%
Automotive Parts & Equipment 38 -5.8%-13.2%-40.8% MOD 1328% · GTX 262% · BWA 55%
Leisure Facilities 12 7.4%-7.5%-41.3% LTH 134% · OSW 125% · PLNT -40%
Broadline Retail 13 8.1%32.5%-41.6% EBAY 68% · AMZN 60% · OLLI 42%
Leisure Products 13 -21.0%-20.9%-42.3% GOLF 83% · HAS 32% · MAT -12%
Casinos & Gaming 20 -8.6%-23.4%-49.7% MCRI 92% · RRR 12% · BYD 9%
Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods 29 4.4%17.9%-49.9% RL 258% · TPR 247% · KTB 61%
Consumer Electronics 11 -23.1%-21.5%-74.9% GRMN 92% · SONO -44%
Other Specialty Retail 17 -33.6%-37.3%-77.5% ULTA 47% · TSCO -5% · BBWI -69%
Automobile Manufacturers 8 -74.6%-54.8%-78.8% GM 46% · TSLA 41% · F 5%
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are limited to companies above $2B market cap.

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Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MTHDHILENPHMNVRTOLMedian
NameMeritage.D.R. Hor.Lennar PulteGro.NVR Toll Bro. 
Mkt Price57.89134.5274.85111.165,749.70132.13121.65
Mkt Cap3.838.017.821.115.512.416.7
Rev LTM5,39533,35031,97316,4079,54710,75913,583
Op Inc LTM3893,8101,7992,5551,4221,4891,644
FCF LTM4153,2028031,5121,0461,0901,068
FCF 3Y Avg332,6951,3111,3771,2539511,282
CFO LTM4383,3539371,6261,0671,1921,129
CFO 3Y Avg602,8451,4621,4921,2791,0351,371

Growth & Margins

MTHDHILENPHMNVRTOLMedian
NameMeritage.D.R. Hor.Lennar PulteGro.NVR Toll Bro. 
Rev Chg LTM-13.2%-3.5%-8.0%-7.3%-9.9%-1.1%-7.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-5.6%-1.0%-1.2%-0.5%-1.4%0.2%-1.1%
Rev Chg Q-13.7%0.0%-8.7%-9.6%-10.5%-9.7%-9.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-4.0%0.0%-2.3%-2.5%-2.8%-2.6%-2.5%
Op Inc Chg LTM-50.1%-22.1%-48.1%-27.5%-23.7%-15.8%-25.6%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg-25.5%-14.4%-28.0%-9.9%-9.3%-6.6%-12.2%
Op Mgn LTM7.2%11.4%5.6%15.6%14.9%13.8%12.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg11.9%14.1%10.1%19.0%17.2%16.3%15.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.9%-0.3%-0.6%-0.8%-0.8%-0.8%-0.8%
CFO/Rev LTM8.1%10.1%2.9%9.9%11.2%11.1%10.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg1.3%8.2%4.1%8.8%12.7%9.7%8.5%
FCF/Rev LTM7.7%9.6%2.5%9.2%11.0%10.1%9.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg0.9%7.8%3.7%8.1%12.5%8.9%7.9%

Valuation

MTHDHILENPHMNVRTOLMedian
NameMeritage.D.R. Hor.Lennar PulteGro.NVR Toll Bro. 
Mkt Cap3.838.017.821.115.512.416.7
P/S0.71.10.61.31.61.21.1
P/Op Inc9.810.09.98.210.98.39.8
P/EBIT8.910.09.98.410.38.39.4
P/E11.612.413.611.013.610.412.0
P/CFO8.711.319.012.914.510.412.1
Total Yield11.9%9.4%10.1%10.0%7.4%10.4%10.0%
Dividend Yield3.2%1.3%2.8%0.9%0.0%0.8%1.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg0.4%5.7%3.2%5.9%5.9%7.4%5.8%
D/E0.50.20.30.10.10.20.2
Net D/E0.30.10.20.0-0.00.10.1

Returns

MTHDHILENPHMNVRTOLMedian
NameMeritage.D.R. Hor.Lennar PulteGro.NVR Toll Bro. 
1M Rtn-9.2%-2.4%-5.4%-5.8%-6.7%-1.9%-5.6%
3M Rtn-21.0%-9.4%-9.1%-10.0%-10.7%-10.6%-10.3%
6M Rtn-11.6%-6.2%-15.1%-8.3%-15.2%-6.2%-9.9%
12M Rtn-10.6%-10.2%-35.6%-6.6%-22.8%4.6%-10.4%
3Y Rtn9.3%33.9%-27.9%56.1%-3.1%88.6%21.6%
1M Excs Rtn-11.1%-4.4%-7.3%-7.8%-8.6%-3.8%-7.5%
3M Excs Rtn-24.4%-13.5%-13.5%-14.1%-13.4%-16.7%-13.8%
6M Excs Rtn-25.0%-19.6%-28.6%-21.7%-28.6%-19.5%-23.3%
12M Excs Rtn-28.3%-26.0%-50.8%-23.6%-40.5%-12.3%-27.2%
3Y Excs Rtn-77.7%-49.8%-110.8%-25.1%-86.7%7.8%-63.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Homebuilding5,8246,3646,1136,2695,120
Financial Services3331252321
Earnings/(loss) from financial services unconsolidated entities and other, net3-2-166
Total5,8616,3936,1386,2985,147


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Homebuilding5621,0119551,3091,001
Financial Services1914121818
Corporate and unallocated costs-40-67-65-40-51
Total5409589021,287968


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Homebuilding6,6436,3395,326  
Corporate and Unallocated9778211,026852608
Financial Services23221
Homebuilding - Central   1,5521,290
Homebuilding - East   1,4701,243
Homebuilding - West   1,8971,665
Total7,6227,1636,3535,7724,808


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$57.85 
Market Cap ($ Bil)3.8 
First Trading Date12/16/1988 
Distance from 52W High-31.6% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$67.21$68.59
DMA Trenddownindeterminate
Distance from DMA-13.9%-15.7%
 3M1YR
Volatility36.7%38.2%
Downside Capture271.56129.75
Upside Capture97.2992.26
Correlation (S&P 500)41.8%35.3%
MTH Betas & Captures as of 9/30/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta1.882.001.531.171.030.99
Up Beta1.001.360.491.251.261.00
Down Beta4.103.411.661.111.050.63
Up Capture128%164%113%99%71%119%
Bmk +ve Days6162766132424
Stock +ve Days10213064122368
Down Capture273%270%256%133%108%107%
Bmk -ve Days16263760120328
Stock -ve Days12213462129379

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with MTH
MTH-12.5%38.2%-0.27-
Sector ETF (XLY)-4.0%19.4%-0.3445.3%
Equity (SPY)17.0%13.0%0.9334.5%
Gold (GLD)4.6%29.5%0.1514.6%
Commodities (DBC)48.0%20.9%1.77-33.9%
Real Estate (VNQ)6.2%13.8%0.1950.6%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-32.3%44.3%-0.763.0%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with MTH
MTH5.1%39.0%0.22-
Sector ETF (XLY)5.4%24.1%0.1853.1%
Equity (SPY)14.1%17.1%0.6349.6%
Gold (GLD)18.3%18.9%0.7812.2%
Commodities (DBC)9.9%19.5%0.39-1.1%
Real Estate (VNQ)1.5%18.8%-0.0356.1%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)11.0%52.0%0.3921.0%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with MTH
MTH13.6%42.8%0.44-
Sector ETF (XLY)12.0%22.2%0.4955.9%
Equity (SPY)15.4%17.9%0.7353.5%
Gold (GLD)11.8%16.4%0.5812.3%
Commodities (DBC)8.3%18.1%0.3712.8%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.6%20.7%0.1856.5%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)63.4%66.2%1.0315.2%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date9302026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4.0 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 9152026-12.8%
Average Daily Volume1.0 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.1 days
Basic Shares Quantity65.8 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares6.1%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 8/31/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
7/29/2026-1.1%4.7%-1.5%
4/22/20261.7%-2.5%-7.0%
1/28/20261.1%9.0%9.0%
10/28/2025-5.6%-8.1%4.1%
7/23/2025-5.0%-9.1%0.1%
4/23/20251.0%-0.1%-5.7%
1/29/20252.8%-2.1%-8.1%
10/29/2024-1.7%5.7%4.9%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive151513
# Negative9911
Median Positive3.6%5.7%8.5%
Median Negative-5.0%-7.4%-4.7%
Max Positive11.7%16.6%23.9%
Max Negative-7.8%-10.9%-10.5%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
7/29/2026-1.1%4.7%-1.5%
4/22/20261.7%-2.5%-7.0%
1/28/20261.1%9.0%9.0%
10/28/2025-5.6%-8.1%4.1%
7/23/2025-5.0%-9.1%0.1%
4/23/20251.0%-0.1%-5.7%
1/29/20252.8%-2.1%-8.1%
10/29/2024-1.7%5.7%4.9%
7/24/20240.9%5.9%0.7%
4/24/20246.7%7.7%11.6%
1/31/2024-7.3%-7.4%-3.6%
10/31/20237.0%16.6%23.9%
7/27/20238.7%4.5%-3.8%
4/26/20230.3%3.5%-2.2%
2/1/20236.4%1.1%0.4%
10/26/20222.3%2.1%18.6%
7/27/2022-0.4%-4.0%-4.7%
4/27/20226.4%12.3%6.8%
1/26/2022-1.8%0.5%-2.7%
10/27/20213.6%3.3%8.5%
7/28/202111.7%14.0%14.6%
4/28/202111.7%15.0%13.1%
1/27/2021-7.8%-8.6%-9.6%
10/21/2020-6.7%-10.9%-10.5%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive151513
# Negative9911
Median Positive3.6%5.7%8.5%
Median Negative-5.0%-7.4%-4.7%
Max Positive11.7%16.6%23.9%
Max Negative-7.8%-10.9%-10.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202607/31/202610-Q
03/31/202604/24/202610-Q
12/31/202502/13/202610-K
09/30/202510/31/202510-Q
06/30/202507/25/202510-Q
03/31/202504/25/202510-Q
12/31/202402/20/202510-K
09/30/202410/31/202410-Q
06/30/202407/26/202410-Q
03/31/202404/26/202410-Q
12/31/202302/14/202410-K
09/30/202311/01/202310-Q
06/30/202307/28/202310-Q
03/31/202304/28/202310-Q
12/31/202202/15/202310-K
09/30/202210/28/202210-Q
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202607/31/202610-Q
03/31/202604/24/202610-Q
12/31/202502/13/202610-K
09/30/202510/31/202510-Q
06/30/202507/25/202510-Q
03/31/202504/25/202510-Q
12/31/202402/20/202510-K
09/30/202410/31/202410-Q
06/30/202407/26/202410-Q
03/31/202404/26/202410-Q
12/31/202302/14/202410-K
09/30/202311/01/202310-Q
06/30/202307/28/202310-Q
03/31/202304/28/202310-Q
12/31/202202/15/202310-K
09/30/202210/28/202210-Q
06/30/202207/29/202210-Q
03/31/202204/29/202210-Q
12/31/202102/16/202210-K
09/30/202110/29/202110-Q
06/30/202107/30/202110-Q
03/31/202104/30/202110-Q
12/31/202002/12/202110-K
09/30/202010/27/202010-Q
06/30/202007/27/202010-Q
03/31/202005/01/202010-Q
12/31/201902/18/202010-K
09/30/201910/28/201910-Q

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 10/4/2026

Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/29/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Home Closing Volume GrowthReported -5.0%    
2026 Community Count GrowthReported5.0%7.5%   Affirmed
2026 Home Closing Revenue GrowthReported -5.0%    


Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/22/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Home Closing VolumeReported 13668    
2026 Home Closing RevenueReported 5.12 Bil    

Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/28/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Share RepurchasesReported 400.00 Mil    

Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/28/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q4 2025 Home closing volumeReported380039004000   
Q4 2025 Home closing revenueReported1.46 Bil1.50 Bil1.54 Bil   
Q4 2025 Gross ProfitCalculated277.40 Mil292.50 Mil308.00 Mil  Rev x Gross Margin
Q4 2025 Home closing gross marginReported19.0%19.5%20.0%   
Q4 2025 Effective tax rateReported 24.5%    
Q4 2025 Diluted EPSReported1.511.611.7   

Insider Activity

Updated 5/13/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Sasser, AlisonSVP - Chief Accounting OfficerDirectSell513202662.111,27379,066474,148Form
2Sasser, AlisonSVP - Chief Accounting OfficerDirectSell225202676.8015111,597684,058Form
3Woffinden, Austin MEVP, Corp. Ops & StrategyDirectSell225202676.8014310,9821,581,696Form
4Hilton, Steven JExecutive ChairmanHeld in Family Trusts and Charitable FoundationSell225202676.134,835368,10764,074,439Form
5Clinton, MalissiaEVP - Gen. Counsel, SecretaryDirectSell225202676.115,185394,6171,461,491Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Sasser, AlisonSVP - Chief Accounting OfficerDirectSell513202662.111,27379,066474,148Form
2Sasser, AlisonSVP - Chief Accounting OfficerDirectSell225202676.8015111,597684,058Form
3Woffinden, Austin MEVP, Corp. Ops & StrategyDirectSell225202676.8014310,9821,581,696Form
4Hilton, Steven JExecutive ChairmanHeld in Family Trusts and Charitable FoundationSell225202676.134,835368,10764,074,439Form
5Clinton, MalissiaEVP - Gen. Counsel, SecretaryDirectSell225202676.115,185394,6171,461,491Form
6Feliciano, JavierEVP Chief People OfficerHELD IN TRUSTSell225202676.243,580272,9313,425,739Form
7Sferruzza, HillaEVP- Chief Financial OfficerHELD IN FAMILY TRUSTSSell225202676.3510,928834,3299,540,502Form
8Lord, PhillippeChief Executive OfficerLimited PartnershipSell225202676.4932,8202,510,53819,918,236Form
9Woffinden, Austin MEVP, Corp. Ops & StrategyDirectSell223202678.1626320,5561,580,004Form
10Sasser, AlisonSVP - Chief Accounting OfficerDirectSell223202678.1615812,349664,985Form
11Woffinden, Austin MEVP, Corp. Ops & StrategyDirectSell219202679.4664751,4111,551,298Form
12Lord, PhillippeChief Executive OfficerLimited PartnershipSell219202680.075,000400,35017,320,742Form
13Sasser, AlisonSVP - Chief Accounting OfficerDirectSell219202679.4668054,033643,070Form
14Lord, PhillippeChief Executive OfficerLimited Partnership and Limited Liability CompanySell822202580.016,950556,07017,707,813Form
15Clinton, MalissiaEVP - Gen. Counsel, SecretaryDirectSell812202571.596,518466,620626,336Form
16Arriola, Dennis V HELD IN TRUSTBuy729202570.002,200154,000665,840Form
17Arriola, Dennis V HELD IN TRUSTBuy729202577.21201,544557,456Form
18Keough, JosephDirectBuy612202566.164,000264,6402,758,872Form

Investor Activity (13F)

Updated Oct 13, 2026
13F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)

Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.

Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Sophron Capital Management L.P.$14.5 Mil4.3%41Hold13F
Lodge Hill Capital, LLC$14.5 Mil2.8%22ADD +17.5%13F
Greenhaven Associates Inc$90.0 Mil1.5%27Hold13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Lodge Hill Capital, LLC$14.5 Mil2.8%22ADD +17.5%13F
Active Manager
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Greenhaven Associates Inc$90.0 Mil1.5%27Hold13F
Sophron Capital Management L.P.$14.5 Mil4.3%41Hold13F
Lodge Hill Capital, LLC$14.5 Mil2.8%22ADD +17.5%13F
Core Cache Last Updated: 10/12/2026