MercadoLibre (MELI)
Market Price (11/7/2026): $1512.65 | Market Cap: $76.7 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Broadline Retail
MercadoLibre (MELI)
Market Price (11/7/2026): $1512.65Market Cap: $76.7 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Broadline Retail
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 47% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, CFO LTM is 14 Bil, FCF LTM is 12 Bil Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 16% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 43% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Fintech & Digital Payments, Automation & Robotics, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -61%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -65% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 27x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 41x Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.9% Key risksMELI key risks include [1] intensifying competition across its e-commerce and fintech segments from aggressive global and regional rivals, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 47% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, CFO LTM is 14 Bil, FCF LTM is 12 Bil |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 16% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 43% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Fintech & Digital Payments, Automation & Robotics, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -61%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -65% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 27x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 41x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.9% |
| Key risksMELI key risks include [1] intensifying competition across its e-commerce and fintech segments from aggressive global and regional rivals, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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MercadoLibre (MELI) stock has lost about 20% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Persistent Operating Margin Compression Due to Strategic Investments. MercadoLibre's stock trend since late July 2026 has been significantly impacted by persistent operating margin compression, a direct result of its aggressive investment strategy. Following its Q2 2026 earnings announcement on August 5, 2026, the company reported an operating margin of 6.7%, a substantial decline of 550 basis points from the prior year. This was attributed to deliberate investments in customer engagement, long-term growth, and scale, including lowered free shipping thresholds in Brazil, credit card issuance, and payment discounts. Despite beating revenue and EPS estimates for the fiscal Q2 2026, the stock fell approximately 4.31% to 4.81% in after-hours trading due to these margin concerns, indicating investor apprehension about near-term profitability.
2. Q3 2026 Earnings Per Share Miss and Further Margin Erosion. The negative sentiment was compounded by MercadoLibre's Q3 2026 financial results, reported on November 4, 2026, which revealed an earnings per share (EPS) of $8.83, missing the consensus estimate of $9.27. Although net revenue grew 45% year-over-year to $10.75 billion, beating estimates, the operating margin further eroded to 6.3% from 6.7% in fiscal Q2 2026, representing a 3.5 percentage point decrease year-over-year. This continued margin pressure stemmed from ongoing substantial investments in fulfillment capacity, increased free shipping costs, and elevated marketing expenses, particularly within the Brazilian market. Operating profit consequently dropped 6% to $676 million.
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MercadoLibre (MELI) stock has lost about 20% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Persistent Operating Margin Compression Due to Strategic Investments. MercadoLibre's stock trend since late July 2026 has been significantly impacted by persistent operating margin compression, a direct result of its aggressive investment strategy. Following its Q2 2026 earnings announcement on August 5, 2026, the company reported an operating margin of 6.7%, a substantial decline of 550 basis points from the prior year. This was attributed to deliberate investments in customer engagement, long-term growth, and scale, including lowered free shipping thresholds in Brazil, credit card issuance, and payment discounts. Despite beating revenue and EPS estimates for the fiscal Q2 2026, the stock fell approximately 4.31% to 4.81% in after-hours trading due to these margin concerns, indicating investor apprehension about near-term profitability.
2. Q3 2026 Earnings Per Share Miss and Further Margin Erosion. The negative sentiment was compounded by MercadoLibre's Q3 2026 financial results, reported on November 4, 2026, which revealed an earnings per share (EPS) of $8.83, missing the consensus estimate of $9.27. Although net revenue grew 45% year-over-year to $10.75 billion, beating estimates, the operating margin further eroded to 6.3% from 6.7% in fiscal Q2 2026, representing a 3.5 percentage point decrease year-over-year. This continued margin pressure stemmed from ongoing substantial investments in fulfillment capacity, increased free shipping costs, and elevated marketing expenses, particularly within the Brazilian market. Operating profit consequently dropped 6% to $676 million.
3. Analyst Price Target Reductions Following Q3 Results. The stock's downward trend was further exacerbated by analyst reactions to the Q3 2026 results. Several firms reduced their price targets for MercadoLibre, reflecting ongoing concerns regarding the company's investment cycle and its impact on profitability. Cantor Fitzgerald, for instance, lowered its price objective from $2,200.00 to $2,000.00 on November 4, 2026. Similarly, Raymond James decreased its price target from $2,100 to $2,000, and BTIG adjusted its target from $2,150 to $2,050. These adjustments, despite maintaining generally positive ratings, signaled a recalibration of growth expectations versus profitability for the company.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -19.6% change in MELI stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a -18.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1877.95 | 1510.00 | -19.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 31,803 | 38,523 | 21.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.0% | 4.9% | -18.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 49.6 | 40.5 | -18.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 51 | 51 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -19.6% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MELI | -19.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | -1.6% | 43.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | 1.3% | 52.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -15.8% change in MELI stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a -29.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1792.63 | 1510.00 | -15.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 28,893 | 38,523 | 33.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.9% | 4.9% | -29.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 45.5 | 40.5 | -11.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 51 | 51 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -15.8% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MELI | -15.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.6% | 32.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | -0.5% | 43.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -35.1% change in MELI stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a -38.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 2327.26 | 1510.00 | -35.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 26,193 | 38,523 | 47.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.9% | 4.9% | -38.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 56.8 | 40.5 | -28.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 51 | 51 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -35.1% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MELI | -35.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.7% | 40.2% |
| Sector (XLY) | -1.4% | 46.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 21.7% change in MELI stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 203.2% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1240.74 | 1510.00 | 21.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 12,706 | 38,523 | 203.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.0% | 4.9% | -17.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 82.2 | 40.5 | -50.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 50 | 51 | -1.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 21.7% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MELI | 21.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 81.9% | 39.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | 58.2% | 37.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MELI Return | -20% | -37% | 86% | 8% | 18% | -25% | -10% |
| Peers Return | -0% | -55% | 42% | 40% | 15% | 4% | 7% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MELI Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 50% | 33% | 50% | 45% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 30% | 63% | 58% | 57% | 49% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 45% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MELI Max Drawdown | -47% | -55% | -19% | -25% | -27% | -34% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -27% | -62% | -30% | -22% | -32% | -31% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AMZN, PYPL, CPNG, EBAY, SHOP. See MELI Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/6/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MELI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -13.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 8 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -54.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 117.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 340 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -39.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -27.3% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.5% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -19.3% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 23.9% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 62 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -29.0% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.8% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 64 days | 62 days |
In The Past
MercadoLibre's stock fell -13.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 15.7% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | MELI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -54.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 117.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 340 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -39.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -27.3% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.5% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -29.0% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.8% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 64 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -24.9% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.1% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 31 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -39.5% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 65.4% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 31 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -88.6% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 779.8% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 662 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
MercadoLibre's stock fell -13.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 15.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About MercadoLibre (MELI)
MercadoLibre (MELI) is a prominent e-commerce and financial technology company serving the Latin American market. Its primary offering is the Mercado Libre Marketplace, an automated online platform that empowers businesses, merchants, and individuals to list, sell, and purchase a vast array of merchandise across the region. This core marketplace facilitates a significant volume of digital commerce, connecting buyers and sellers throughout Latin America.
Complementing its marketplace, MercadoLibre offers a comprehensive suite of integrated services. Its FinTech platform, Mercado Pago, provides essential financial solutions, including online payment processing, digital wallets for money transfers, investment options through Mercado Fondo, and credit facilities via Mercado Credito for both consumers and merchants. Additionally, the company streamlines operations with Mercado Envios, a logistics solution encompassing shipping, fulfillment, and warehousing. Further extending its ecosystem, MercadoLibre provides Mercado Libre Classifieds for listings like vehicles and real estate, Mercado Libre Ads for advertising, and Mercado Shops, which enables users to establish and manage their own digital storefronts.
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- The Amazon of Latin America.
- A blend of Amazon and PayPal for Latin America.
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- Mercado Libre Marketplace: An automated online commerce platform enabling businesses, merchants, and individuals to list merchandise and conduct sales and purchases.
- Mercado Pago FinTech: A financial technology solution platform that facilitates online transactions by allowing users to send, receive, and transfer payments.
- Mercado Fondo: A service that allows users to invest funds deposited in their Mercado Pago accounts.
- Mercado Credito: A lending service that extends loans to certain merchants and consumers.
- Mercado Envios: A logistics solution providing sellers with third-party carrier options, fulfillment, and warehousing services.
- Mercado Libre Classifieds: An online classified listing service for motor vehicles, real estate, and other services.
- Mercado Libre Ads: An advertising platform enabling retailers and brands to promote products and services on the internet.
- Mercado Shops: An online storefronts solution for users to set up, manage, and promote their own digital stores.
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Major Customers of MercadoLibre (MELI)
MercadoLibre operates a vast e-commerce and fintech ecosystem in Latin America, serving a diverse customer base that includes both individuals and businesses. Due to the nature of its marketplace model, it does not have a small number of individually identifiable "major customer companies" in the traditional sense. Instead, its customer base comprises millions of users, both consumers and businesses, across its various platforms. Therefore, its customers are best described by categories:
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Individual Consumers (Buyers)
These are the millions of individuals across Latin America who utilize the Mercado Libre Marketplace to browse and purchase a wide array of goods and services. They also engage with Mercado Pago for digital payments, money transfers, personal investments (Mercado Fondo), and may access consumer loans through Mercado Credito. This category represents the demand side of the marketplace.
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Small to Medium-sized Businesses (SMBs) & Individual Entrepreneurs (Sellers)
This group consists of numerous small to medium-sized businesses and individual sellers who leverage the Mercado Libre platform to list and sell their products. They extensively use Mercado Pago for receiving payments, Mercado Envios for logistics and fulfillment, Mercado Credito for business financing, Mercado Libre Ads for promotional activities, and Mercado Shops to establish and manage their online storefronts. They form the supply side of the marketplace and are a significant source of direct revenue for MercadoLibre.
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Large Retailers and Brands
Larger companies, established retailers, and prominent brands utilize the Mercado Libre Marketplace as a key sales channel to reach a massive audience. They often make significant use of Mercado Libre Ads to promote their products and services and may integrate with Mercado Envios for efficient logistics and warehousing solutions.
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Ariel Szarfsztejn President and Chief Executive Officer
Ariel Szarfsztejn was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of MercadoLibre on January 1, 2026. He previously served as Commerce President of MercadoLibre since January 2024. Mr. Szarfsztejn joined MercadoLibre in 2017, initially working in Strategy and New Business. He subsequently led the development of the company's logistics network across Latin America and, for three years, successfully managed the Marketplace division. He holds a degree in Economics from the University of Buenos Aires and completed a postgraduate degree at Stanford. Prior to his tenure at MercadoLibre, his first formal corporate position was in Human Resources at Citibank.
Martín de los Santos Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Martín de los Santos has served as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of MercadoLibre since January 2024, having previously been Senior Vice President & CFO from August 2023. He initially joined MercadoLibre in 2008 and has held various significant roles, including Senior Vice President of the credits division. Earlier in his career, he held positions at Vostu, IMPSA, Merrill Lynch, McKinsey & Co., and Goldman Sachs. Mr. de los Santos also served as an independent director of MercadoLibre from 2008 to 2013. He holds an MBA from Stanford University and a B.S. in Business Administration from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
Marcos Galperin Co-Founder and Executive Chairman of the Board
Marcos Galperin is the co-founder of MercadoLibre and, as of January 1, 2026, serves as the Executive Chairman of the Board, transitioning from his role as CEO. He co-founded Mercado Libre in 1999 while pursuing his MBA at Stanford University, where he conceived the idea for an eBay-like platform for Latin America. Prior to founding MercadoLibre, he worked at J.P. Morgan Securities in New York and managed YPF S.A.'s currency and oil derivatives program in Argentina. He earned an MBA from Stanford University and graduated with honors from the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, with a B.S. in Economics. Mr. Galperin secured initial funding for MercadoLibre through the Hicks Muse private equity fund.
Osvaldo Giménez Fintech President
Osvaldo Giménez has been MercadoLibre's Fintech President since August 2020, where he oversees Mercado Pago's operations, a division he has led since 2004. He joined MercadoLibre in 2000 as Country Manager for Argentina and Chile. Before his time at MercadoLibre, he worked as an associate consultant at Booz Allen & Hamilton and in the fixed income department at Santander Investments in New York. Mr. Giménez holds an MBA from Stanford University Graduate School of Business and a B.S. in Industrial Engineering from the Instituto Tecnológico de Buenos Aires.
Daniel Rabinovich Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer
Daniel Rabinovich serves as MercadoLibre's Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer. He is an experienced executive within the company, having previously held the position of Senior Vice President of Mercado Envios, which is MercadoLibre's logistics and supply chain division.
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The key risks to MercadoLibre's business are primarily linked to the macroeconomic and political environment in Latin America, intense competition in its core e-commerce and FinTech segments, and the inherent credit risks associated with its rapidly expanding lending portfolio.
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Economic and Political Instability in Latin America: MercadoLibre's operations are heavily concentrated in Latin American countries such as Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina, making it highly susceptible to regional macro headwinds. Risks include slowing economic growth, high inflation, political uncertainties, and foreign exchange rate fluctuations, which can impact consumer purchasing power, merchant activity, and overall profitability.
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Intense Competition: MercadoLibre faces significant competitive challenges across its e-commerce and FinTech platforms. The company competes with global e-commerce giants, local online retailers, traditional banks, and emerging FinTech companies, including aggressive players like Shopee and Temu. This intense competition can lead to increased investment in logistics, marketing, and pricing pressures, which in turn can compress profit margins.
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Credit Risk from FinTech Operations: The rapid expansion of MercadoLibre's FinTech segment, particularly its Mercado Credito lending solution, exposes the company to significant credit risk. While the credit portfolio has shown substantial growth, there are concerns about rising non-performing loans (NPLs) and the potential for increased defaults, especially given the volatile economic conditions in some of its operating markets.
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- The emergence and rapid growth of social commerce platforms (e.g., TikTok Shop, Instagram Shopping) and live shopping models, which directly compete for merchant engagement and consumer purchases, potentially diverting sales from MercadoLibre's traditional marketplace and advertising platforms.
- The proliferation of government-backed real-time payment systems (e.g., Brazil's Pix), offering low-cost, instant transaction alternatives that can bypass Mercado Pago's proprietary payment network, potentially impacting its transaction revenue and reducing the stickiness of its financial ecosystem.
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Addressable Markets for MercadoLibre's Main Products and Services in Latin America
- Mercado Libre Marketplace (E-commerce): The e-commerce market in Latin America was valued at USD 1.61 trillion in 2025 and is estimated to reach USD 1.78 trillion in 2026. It is projected to grow to USD 4.06 trillion by 2034. Other estimates suggest the Latin American e-commerce transaction volume is expected to surpass USD 760 billion in 2026.
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Mercado Pago FinTech (Financial Technology Solutions, Online Payments, Money Transfers): The Latin America fintech market size was valued at USD 15.23 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 54.01 billion by 2034. Another source indicates the Latin America fintech market was valued at USD 71.36 billion in 2024, projected to reach USD 76.01 billion in 2025, and is expected to expand to USD 125.88 billion by 2033.
Specifically for payments, the Latin American payments market size was valued at USD 715.28 billion in 2024, is expected to reach USD 787.74 billion in 2025, and USD 1,704.62 billion by 2033. Latin America's digital payments market is projected to reach USD 0.3 trillion by 2027. - Mercado Credito (Digital Lending): The digital lending platform market in Latin America generated a revenue of USD 1,163.6 million in 2024 and is expected to reach a projected revenue of US$ 5,014.9 million by 2030.
- Mercado Envios (Logistics Solutions): The Latin America logistics market size reached USD 347.7 billion in 2024. It is projected to grow to USD 577.5 billion by 2033, registering a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.3% from 2025. Another report estimated the market to be USD 360 billion in 2024, with a projected growth to US$ 527.5 billion by 2030.
- Mercado Libre Classifieds (Online Classified Listing Service): The online classified ad platform market size reached $38.62 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to $43.8 billion in 2026, with an expected increase to $71.54 billion in 2030. The global online classified market was valued at USD 35.8 billion in 2024 and is poised to grow to USD 38.95 billion in 2025 and USD 76.48 billion by 2033.
- Mercado Libre Ads (Advertising Platform): The Latin America digital advertising market size reached USD 43,509.7 million in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 166,224.6 million by 2034. Other data suggests the digital ad spend market in Latin America is expected to reach US$50.1 billion by 2026.
- Mercado Shops (Online Storefronts Solution): The e-commerce platform market in Latin America generated a revenue of USD 193.1 million in 2024. This market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 19.5% from 2025 to 2033, reaching a projected revenue of US$ 887.2 million by 2033.
- Mercado Fondo (Investment Funds): Null
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MercadoLibre (MELI) is poised for continued revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several key strategic initiatives and market dynamics in Latin America. The company's multifaceted approach focuses on enhancing its core e-commerce platform, expanding its financial technology services, strengthening its logistics capabilities, growing its advertising business, and leveraging strategic technology investments.
Here are 5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for MercadoLibre:
- Expansion of Fintech Services (Mercado Pago), particularly Credit and Digital Banking: Mercado Pago is anticipated to become an even more significant strategic driver, with substantial expansion in payment operations, asset management, and especially its credit business. The credit portfolio has shown robust growth, with a notable increase of 90% year-over-year in Q4 2025, reaching $12.5 billion. Mercado Pago is actively evolving into a comprehensive digital bank, aiming to become the largest in Latin America by fostering primary financial relationships with its users. This includes a growing credit card origination, which is already the preferred payment method in Mexico.
- Continued E-commerce Marketplace Growth and Market Share Gains in Latin America: MercadoLibre is projected to sustain a revenue growth rate of 20% to 25% over the next three years, capitalizing on steady e-commerce penetration in key markets like Brazil and Mexico. The company is focused on increasing its market dominance by investing in the widest possible product assortment and continuously improving the value proposition for both buyers and sellers on its platform. This includes the accelerated growth of its first-party business, particularly in Brazil, which saw an 81% increase in 2023. Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) continues to expand significantly, rising 37% year-over-year in Q4 2025.
- Expansion and Optimization of the Logistics Network (Mercado Envios): Significant investments in MercadoLibre's logistics infrastructure are a crucial driver. The company is continuously expanding its network with a focus on increasing fulfillment penetration, which was nearly 50% in Q4 2023, leading to faster shipping and fewer delivery delays. In 2024, MercadoLibre opened ten new fulfillment centers and expanded its free shipping program, which has successfully boosted transaction volumes and customer engagement. These strategic investments in logistics hubs and infrastructure are designed to strengthen its competitive advantage.
- Growth of the Advertising Business (Mercado Libre Ads): The advertising platform, Mercado Libre Ads, is consistently delivering impressive and accelerating revenue growth. In 2023, nearly 50,000 new advertisers were onboarded, recognizing the value of promoting products on the platform. The advertising business is further fueled by AI-powered bidding algorithms, which contributed to a 67% growth. Advertising revenue also increased 41% year-over-year (88% FX-neutral) in 4Q24.
- Strategic Investments in Technology (particularly AI) and Infrastructure: MercadoLibre is making substantial capital allocations and investments in technology and infrastructure across its key Latin American markets. These investments include accelerating the use of AI, which supports long-term growth by enhancing credit underwriting and personalized financial advisory, and improving operational efficiency through tools like a conversational AI assistant that handles a significant portion of Mercado Pago's customer interactions. While these investments may lead to short-term margin compression, they are strategic moves aimed at capturing long-term market share and reinforcing the company's ecosystem.
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Share Repurchases
- MercadoLibre authorized a share repurchase program of up to $350 million between September 2020 and August 2021.
- In August 2021, the company announced a new equity buyback program to repurchase up to $150 million worth of its shares, valid until August 2022.
- MercadoLibre executed significant share repurchases, with approximately $601.54 million in 2021 and an estimated $743.77 million in the first three quarters of 2023.
Outbound Investments
- MercadoLibre acquired Redelcom, a company specializing in hardware-based POS terminals, in December 2021.
- The company made substantial strategic investments in its Mercado Pago fintech segment, resulting in its credit portfolio growing by 90% to $12.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025.
- MercadoLibre is strategically investing in logistics infrastructure, technology, and free shipping initiatives across its key markets in Latin America, including a partnership with Agility Robotics to deploy humanoid robots in warehouse operations in December 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- MercadoLibre's capital expenditures have shown an upward trend, with $573 million in 2021, $509 million in 2023, and $860 million in 2024.
- The company's capital expenditures for the latest twelve months, as of September 2025, totaled $1.221 billion.
- MercadoLibre anticipates continued significant capital expenditures, with forecasts of $1.575 billion for 2025 and $1.798 billion for 2026, primarily focused on enhancing logistics, technology, fulfillment capabilities, user experience, and expanding free shipping initiatives.
Peer Outperformance in Broadline Retail
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education Services | 14 | -12.6% | 33.7% | 41.0% | CVSA 246% · GHC 109% · LRN 107% |
| Homebuilding | 17 | 3.7% | 29.7% | 29.7% | PHM 175% · TOL 159% · GRBK 150% |
| Automotive Retail | 17 | -2.1% | 18.9% | 11.3% | MUSA 209% · PAG 115% · ORLY 111% |
| Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines | 21 | 19.8% | 56.9% | 7.0% | RCL 250% · MAR 159% · HLT 147% |
| Home Improvement Retail | 5 | -4.3% | 3.3% | 5.3% | HD 6% · LOW 5% · FND -62% |
| Home Furnishings | 3 | 4.6% | 73.9% | -1.2% | SGI 50% · MHK -15% |
| Footwear | 9 | 75.0% | 79.9% | -15.7% | DECK 23% · SHOO -11% · CROX -16% |
| Restaurants | 36 | 2.4% | -4.6% | -24.2% | EAT 363% · CAKE 158% · TXRH 110% |
| Computer & Electronics Retail | 3 | 33.4% | 75.8% | -24.5% | BBY -3% · GME -53% |
| Specialized Consumer Services | 10 | -8.5% | 32.3% | -25.5% | FTDR 168% · HRB 146% · ADT 24% |
| Distributors | 4 | -5.4% | -16.9% | -26.0% | ARMK 96% · GPC 4% · POOL -56% |
| Leisure Products | 14 | -16.4% | -4.9% | -34.4% | GOLF 51% · HAS 50% · BC -14% |
| Leisure Facilities | 12 | 18.9% | 0.4% | -39.5% | OSW 160% · LTH 143% · PLNT -37% |
| Household Appliances | 18 | 34.2% | 20.6% | -40.3% | WHR -82% |
| Broadline Retail ← | 12 | -5.8% | 14.0% | -45.7% | EBAY 76% · AMZN 47% · OLLI 24% |
| Apparel Retail | 27 | -3.8% | 1.8% | -48.8% | ANF 223% · VSXY 110% · TJX 104% |
| Automotive Parts & Equipment | 37 | -13.2% | -28.2% | -48.8% | GTX 197% · PATK 64% · ALV 41% |
| Casinos & Gaming | 21 | -25.8% | -16.1% | -51.8% | RRR 22% · BYD 19% · LVS 3% |
| Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods | 29 | 15.8% | 17.8% | -53.7% | TPR 255% · RL 225% · KTB 59% |
| Other Specialty Retail | 25 | -0.1% | -11.4% | -57.7% | ULTA 65% · ASO 53% · ARHS 26% |
| Automobile Manufacturers | 8 | -59.8% | -44.0% | -70.5% | GM 54% · TSLA -12% · F -12% |
| Consumer Electronics | 11 | -31.9% | -29.8% | -80.5% | GRMN 122% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| What Could Send MercadoLibre Stock Higher? | 10/05/2026 | |
| The Real Risk Inside MercadoLibre Stock | 07/11/2026 | |
| Why MELI Beats A Bond At Its Own Game | 07/07/2026 | |
| MercadoLibre Stock at Support Zone - Bargain or Trap? | 07/02/2026 | |
| MercadoLibre Earnings Notes | 05/06/2026 | |
| Stress Testing MELI: Historical Drawdowns and Macro Risks | 03/16/2026 | |
| MELI Stock Falls -14% In 8-day Spree On Negative Analyst Revisions | 02/07/2026 | |
| How Low Can MercadoLibre Stock Really Go? | 10/17/2025 | |
| Where Does MercadoLibre Stock Rank Among Competitors? | 10/16/2025 | |
| Time To Buy MercadoLibre Stock? | 10/04/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| What Is Behind The Move In MercadoLibre Stock? | 11/06/2026 | |
| How Will MercadoLibre Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings? | 11/03/2026 | |
| What Sent MercadoLibre Stock Lower? | 10/27/2026 | |
| Is MercadoLibre Stock As Cheap As Its Cash Says? | 09/21/2026 | |
| The Market Is Paying You To Own MELI. Why? | 08/12/2026 |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 135.42 |
| Mkt Cap | 65.4 |
| Rev LTM | 35,226 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,710 |
| FCF LTM | 2,487 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,086 |
| CFO LTM | 5,071 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 4,675 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 15.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 14.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 12.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 7.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 10.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 15.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 20.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 18.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 65.4 |
| P/S | 2.8 |
| P/Op Inc | 24.2 |
| P/EBIT | 17.6 |
| P/E | 23.3 |
| P/CFO | 17.2 |
| Total Yield | 3.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.8% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -0.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 4.9% |
| 12M Rtn | -7.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 45.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -1.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 1.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -23.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -28.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commerce services | 12,750 | 10,076 | 6,754 | 4,764 | |
| Financial services and income | 6,678 | 4,962 | 4,317 | 2,888 | |
| Credit revenues | 5,858 | 3,600 | 2,546 | 2,033 | |
| Commerce products sales | 3,544 | 2,083 | 1,447 | 1,044 | |
| Fintech products sales | 63 | 56 | 43 | 51 | |
| Commerce revenues | 4,635 | ||||
| Fintech revenues | 2,434 | ||||
| Total | 28,893 | 20,777 | 15,107 | 10,780 | 7,069 |
| $ Mil | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 110 | 69 | 56 | 33 | 20 |
| Brazil | 110 | 115 | 87 | 69 | 49 |
| Other Countries | 11 | 16 | 14 | 9 | 6 |
| Mexico | 9 | 14 | 14 | 10 | 7 |
| Venezuela | 9 | -8 | 55 | 22 | 11 |
| Corporate | -110 | -86 | -73 | ||
| Unallocated | -43 | -20 | |||
| Total | 139 | 120 | 154 | 100 | 75 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $1,510.00 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 76.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 08/10/2007 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -34.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $1,808.04 | $1,801.82 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -16.5% | -16.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 48.7% | 42.5% |
| Downside Capture | 81.56 | 134.02 |
| Upside Capture | 57.77 | 81.24 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 18.9% | 33.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.16 | 0.96 | 0.68 | 0.59 | 1.07 | 0.93 |
| Up Beta | 1.96 | 0.29 | 0.11 | 0.82 | 0.97 | 1.08 |
| Down Beta | 1.26 | 0.95 | 1.14 | 1.43 | 1.44 | 0.79 |
| Up Capture | 54% | 43% | 28% | 4% | 56% | 60% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 18 | 29 | 65 | 123 | 391 |
| Down Capture | 136% | 167% | 118% | 47% | 117% | 98% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 25 | 35 | 61 | 128 | 360 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MELI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MELI | -34.5% | 42.5% | -0.88 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | -1.9% | 19.8% | -0.22 | 46.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 9.5% | 13.6% | 0.40 | 40.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 1.6% | 28.7% | 0.05 | 17.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 38.4% | 21.2% | 1.42 | -17.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.3% | 14.2% | 0.51 | 18.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -26.9% | 43.6% | -0.60 | 24.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MELI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MELI | 0.4% | 49.8% | 0.18 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 4.0% | 24.2% | 0.12 | 56.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.3% | 17.3% | 0.48 | 55.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.5% | 19.1% | 0.74 | 7.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.1% | 19.6% | 0.30 | 3.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.3% | 18.9% | -0.04 | 37.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.1% | 51.6% | 0.26 | 30.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MELI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MELI | 24.5% | 49.0% | 0.63 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.8% | 22.3% | 0.52 | 54.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.0% | 18.0% | 0.70 | 52.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.9% | 16.5% | 0.59 | 7.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 18.1% | 0.33 | 12.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.9% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 34.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.1% | 66.3% | 1.00 | 17.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 11/7/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2026 | -12.0% | ||
| 8/5/2026 | -4.8% | -4.9% | 3.6% |
| 5/7/2026 | -12.7% | -14.0% | -13.8% |
| 2/24/2026 | -8.1% | -10.8% | -14.7% |
| 10/29/2025 | 2.8% | 0.3% | -10.1% |
| 8/4/2025 | 0.5% | -4.3% | -0.9% |
| 5/7/2025 | 6.5% | 13.3% | 9.7% |
| 2/20/2025 | 7.1% | 0.9% | -0.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 16 | 14 | 11 |
| # Negative | 9 | 10 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 6.8% | 10.0% | 17.8% |
| Median Negative | -8.1% | -11.5% | -12.0% |
| Max Positive | 16.2% | 26.7% | 36.6% |
| Max Negative | -16.2% | -20.8% | -28.5% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2026 | -12.0% | ||
| 8/5/2026 | -4.8% | -4.9% | 3.6% |
| 5/7/2026 | -12.7% | -14.0% | -13.8% |
| 2/24/2026 | -8.1% | -10.8% | -14.7% |
| 10/29/2025 | 2.8% | 0.3% | -10.1% |
| 8/4/2025 | 0.5% | -4.3% | -0.9% |
| 5/7/2025 | 6.5% | 13.3% | 9.7% |
| 2/20/2025 | 7.1% | 0.9% | -0.7% |
| 11/6/2024 | -16.2% | -8.8% | -8.0% |
| 8/1/2024 | 10.6% | 16.4% | 28.4% |
| 5/2/2024 | 8.3% | 12.6% | 12.4% |
| 2/22/2024 | -10.4% | -12.2% | -13.5% |
| 11/1/2023 | 1.5% | 5.2% | 27.1% |
| 8/2/2023 | 13.6% | 12.7% | 17.8% |
| 5/3/2023 | -5.2% | 0.7% | -0.7% |
| 2/23/2023 | 1.8% | 7.2% | 4.5% |
| 11/3/2022 | 7.8% | 7.4% | 1.3% |
| 8/3/2022 | 16.2% | 19.5% | -3.6% |
| 5/5/2022 | 1.6% | -20.8% | -12.0% |
| 2/22/2022 | 3.7% | 26.7% | 36.6% |
| 11/4/2021 | 4.7% | 1.3% | -28.5% |
| 8/4/2021 | 13.8% | 20.2% | 23.0% |
| 5/5/2021 | -5.5% | -14.9% | -13.4% |
| 3/1/2021 | -4.1% | -20.1% | -16.6% |
| 11/4/2020 | 9.3% | -0.9% | 18.4% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 16 | 14 | 11 |
| # Negative | 9 | 10 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 6.8% | 10.0% | 17.8% |
| Median Negative | -8.1% | -11.5% | -12.0% |
| Max Positive | 16.2% | 26.7% | 36.6% |
| Max Negative | -16.2% | -20.8% | -28.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/08/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/23/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/08/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/23/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/06/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/23/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/06/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/01/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/10/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/14/2020 | 10-K |
Insider Activity
Updated 6/15/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melamud, Marcelo | SVP - Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Buy | 6152026 | 1604.62 | 125 | 200,000 | 379,717 | Form |
| 2 | Aguzin, Alejandro Nicolas | Direct | Buy | 5262026 | 1655.93 | 600 | 993,556 | 8,867,491 | Form | |
| 3 | Melamud, Marcelo | SVP - Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Buy | 3022026 | 1755.77 | 57 | 100,079 | 196,646 | Form |
| 4 | Dubugras, Henrique Vasoncelos | TDB Capital LLC | Sell | 12152025 | 2028.14 | 845 | Form | |||
| 5 | Calemzuk, Emiliano | Direct | Sell | 12122025 | 2027.37 | 45 | 91,232 | 521,034 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melamud, Marcelo | SVP - Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Buy | 6152026 | 1604.62 | 125 | 200,000 | 379,717 | Form |
| 2 | Aguzin, Alejandro Nicolas | Direct | Buy | 5262026 | 1655.93 | 600 | 993,556 | 8,867,491 | Form | |
| 3 | Melamud, Marcelo | SVP - Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Buy | 3022026 | 1755.77 | 57 | 100,079 | 196,646 | Form |
| 4 | Dubugras, Henrique Vasoncelos | TDB Capital LLC | Sell | 12152025 | 2028.14 | 845 | Form | |||
| 5 | Calemzuk, Emiliano | Direct | Sell | 12122025 | 2027.37 | 45 | 91,232 | 521,034 | Form | |
| 6 | Tolda, Stelleo | Didomi Fund | Sell | 12112025 | 2047.88 | 246 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 7, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dynamo Internacional Gestao de Recursos Ltda. | $161.1 Mil | 60.5% | 3 | ADD +73.7% | 13F |
| Squadra Investments - Gestao de Recursos Ltda. | $350.9 Mil | 39.2% | 6 | ADD +126.3% | 13F |
| Northcape Capital Pty Ltd | $212.0 Mil | 24.5% | 8 | Hold | 13F |
| Nellore Capital Management LLC | $124.4 Mil | 15.9% | 11 | ADD +11.6% | 13F |
| Foxhaven Asset Management, LP | $482.3 Mil | 15.1% | 14 | Hold | 13F |
| Coronation Fund Managers Ltd. | $272.8 Mil | 12.4% | 82 | ADD +11.3% | 13F |
| Ancient Art, L.P. | $55.2 Mil | 12.0% | 16 | New | 13F |
| 3G Capital Partners LP | $30.3 Mil | 10.7% | 10 | TRIM -30.0% | 13F |
| Fourth Sail Capital LP | $57.0 Mil | 9.4% | 25 | New | 13F |
| Atmos Capital Gestao de Recursos Ltda. | $53.9 Mil | 9.3% | 15 | TRIM -58.7% | 13F |
| Gavilan Investment Partners LLC | $33.7 Mil | 9.1% | 14 | Hold | 13F |
| Untitled Investments LP | $20.3 Mil | 7.6% | 16 | TRIM -26.9% | 13F |
| PBCay One RSC Ltd | $66.9 Mil | 7.2% | 17 | ADD +136.9% | 13F |
| Spear Holdings RSC Ltd | $66.9 Mil | 7.2% | 17 | ADD +136.9% | 13F |
| Generation Investment Management LLP | $791.2 Mil | 7.1% | 29 | Hold | 13F |
| Durable Capital Partners LP | $606.6 Mil | 6.2% | 37 | ADD +13.9% | 13F |
| D1 Capital Partners L.P. | $646.1 Mil | 5.8% | 44 | ADD +66.5% | 13F |
| Kora Management LP | $36.8 Mil | 5.2% | 9 | Hold | 13F |
| MayTech Global Investments, LLC | $42.0 Mil | 5.1% | 23 | Hold | 13F |
| Matthew 25 Management Corp | $14.8 Mil | 4.9% | 20 | ADD +12.1% | 13F |
| Bender Robert & Associates | $20.1 Mil | 4.8% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Warther Private Wealth, LLC | $19.9 Mil | 4.7% | 40 | ADD +17.7% | 13F |
| Generali Powszechne Towarzystwo Emerytalne | $26.1 Mil | 4.6% | 28 | Hold | 13F |
| INCA Investments LLC | $12.9 Mil | 4.6% | 10 | Hold | 13F |
| Ashoka WhiteOak Capital Pte Ltd | $11.4 Mil | 4.3% | 18 | ADD +31.5% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linonia Partnership LP | $225.2 Mil | 4.2% | 14 | New | 13F |
| Route One Investment Company, L.P. | $77.4 Mil | 3.4% | 18 | New | 13F |
| Fourth Sail Capital LP | $57.0 Mil | 9.4% | 25 | New | 13F |
| Ancient Art, L.P. | $55.2 Mil | 12.0% | 16 | New | 13F |
| Soma Equity Partners LP | $53.8 Mil | 4.0% | 20 | New | 13F |
| Weitz Investment Management, Inc. | $13.8 Mil | 1.0% | 49 | New | 13F |
| Ribbit Management Company, LLC | $59.0 Mil | 3.5% | 16 | ADD +198.9% | 13F |
| Spear Holdings RSC Ltd | $66.9 Mil | 7.2% | 17 | ADD +136.9% | 13F |
| PBCay One RSC Ltd | $66.9 Mil | 7.2% | 17 | ADD +136.9% | 13F |
| Squadra Investments - Gestao de Recursos Ltda. | $350.9 Mil | 39.2% | 6 | ADD +126.3% | 13F |
| CTC LLC | $26.8 Mil | 2.1% | 25 | ADD +90.1% | 13F |
| Dynamo Internacional Gestao de Recursos Ltda. | $161.1 Mil | 60.5% | 3 | ADD +73.7% | 13F |
| D1 Capital Partners L.P. | $646.1 Mil | 5.8% | 44 | ADD +66.5% | 13F |
| Ashoka WhiteOak Capital Pte Ltd | $11.4 Mil | 4.3% | 18 | ADD +31.5% | 13F |
| Gemsstock Ltd. | $18.7 Mil | 2.0% | 28 | ADD +27.4% | 13F |
| Lingotto Investment Management LLP | $41.6 Mil | 0.8% | 34 | ADD +19.3% | 13F |
| Central Securities Corp | $26.8 Mil | 2.2% | 30 | ADD +19.2% | 13F |
| Warther Private Wealth, LLC | $19.9 Mil | 4.7% | 40 | ADD +17.7% | 13F |
| Durable Capital Partners LP | $606.6 Mil | 6.2% | 37 | ADD +13.9% | 13F |
| Matthew 25 Management Corp | $14.8 Mil | 4.9% | 20 | ADD +12.1% | 13F |
| Nellore Capital Management LLC | $124.4 Mil | 15.9% | 11 | ADD +11.6% | 13F |
| Coronation Fund Managers Ltd. | $272.8 Mil | 12.4% | 82 | ADD +11.3% | 13F |
| Alta Park Capital, LP | $14.8 Mil | 2.4% | 24 | ADD +11.0% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dragoneer Investment Group, LLC | $322.7 Mil | 7.0% | 27 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Whale Rock Capital Management LLC | $197.7 Mil | 2.5% | 32 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Altimeter Capital Management, LP | $137.9 Mil | 2.1% | 18 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| RWC Asset Advisors (US) LLC | $49.6 Mil | 9.4% | 13 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Heirloom Wealth Management | $12.7 Mil | 2.9% | 43 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Aragon Global Management, LP | $7.4 Mil | 2.2% | 32 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Atmos Capital Gestao de Recursos Ltda. | $53.9 Mil | 9.3% | 15 | TRIM -58.7% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Crosslink Capital Inc | $23.9 Mil | 2.3% | 21 | TRIM -50.5% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| 3G Capital Partners LP | $30.3 Mil | 10.7% | 10 | TRIM -30.0% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Untitled Investments LP | $20.3 Mil | 7.6% | 16 | TRIM -26.9% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| ThornTree Capital Partners LP | $18.4 Mil | 3.3% | 16 | TRIM -23.0% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Proem Advisors LLC | $9.2 Mil | 3.0% | 29 | TRIM -18.5% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Generation Investment Management LLP | $791.2 Mil | 7.1% | 29 | Hold | 13F |
| D1 Capital Partners L.P. | $646.1 Mil | 5.8% | 44 | ADD +66.5% | 13F |
| Durable Capital Partners LP | $606.6 Mil | 6.2% | 37 | ADD +13.9% | 13F |
| Foxhaven Asset Management, LP | $482.3 Mil | 15.1% | 14 | Hold | 13F |
| Squadra Investments - Gestao de Recursos Ltda. | $350.9 Mil | 39.2% | 6 | ADD +126.3% | 13F |
| Coronation Fund Managers Ltd. | $272.8 Mil | 12.4% | 82 | ADD +11.3% | 13F |
| Linonia Partnership LP | $225.2 Mil | 4.2% | 14 | New | 13F |
| Northcape Capital Pty Ltd | $212.0 Mil | 24.5% | 8 | Hold | 13F |
| Dynamo Internacional Gestao de Recursos Ltda. | $161.1 Mil | 60.5% | 3 | ADD +73.7% | 13F |
| Nellore Capital Management LLC | $124.4 Mil | 15.9% | 11 | ADD +11.6% | 13F |
| Route One Investment Company, L.P. | $77.4 Mil | 3.4% | 18 | New | 13F |
| PBCay One RSC Ltd | $66.9 Mil | 7.2% | 17 | ADD +136.9% | 13F |
| Spear Holdings RSC Ltd | $66.9 Mil | 7.2% | 17 | ADD +136.9% | 13F |
| Ribbit Management Company, LLC | $59.0 Mil | 3.5% | 16 | ADD +198.9% | 13F |
| Fourth Sail Capital LP | $57.0 Mil | 9.4% | 25 | New | 13F |
| Ancient Art, L.P. | $55.2 Mil | 12.0% | 16 | New | 13F |
| Atmos Capital Gestao de Recursos Ltda. | $53.9 Mil | 9.3% | 15 | TRIM -58.7% | 13F |
| Soma Equity Partners LP | $53.8 Mil | 4.0% | 20 | New | 13F |
| MayTech Global Investments, LLC | $42.0 Mil | 5.1% | 23 | Hold | 13F |
| Lingotto Investment Management LLP | $41.6 Mil | 0.8% | 34 | ADD +19.3% | 13F |
| Kora Management LP | $36.8 Mil | 5.2% | 9 | Hold | 13F |
| Gavilan Investment Partners LLC | $33.7 Mil | 9.1% | 14 | Hold | 13F |
| Think Investments LP | $31.6 Mil | 4.3% | 30 | Hold | 13F |
| 3G Capital Partners LP | $30.3 Mil | 10.7% | 10 | TRIM -30.0% | 13F |
| CTC LLC | $26.8 Mil | 2.1% | 25 | ADD +90.1% | 13F |
MELI Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is constructive based on MercadoLibre's powerful ecosystem, where engagement is deepening with items per buyer up 12% year-over-year. The company is successfully funding its aggressive growth with strong internal cash flow. However, significant operational risks, highlighted by inventory growing at twice the rate of revenue, prevent a higher conviction rating pending fourth-quarter results.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Transactional Platform & Financial Services(GMV x Take Rate) + (TPV x Commission Rate) + (Loan Portfolio x Net Interest Margin) + Ad Revenue Achieving greater scale to drive down unit costs in logistics (cost per shipment) and other operations, and growing the contribution from high-margin businesses like advertising and mature credit cohorts.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests yes; users engaging with both commerce and fintech are the fastest-growing cohort and are disproportionately profitable.
- 'Ecosystemic Users' who shop and bank grew 33% year-over-year.
- Contribution profit from these users is 'multiples' of single-service users.
- Items per buyer increased 12% year-over-year across the region.
- In Brazil, items per buyer grew 16% YoY after free shipping changes.
- Fintech monthly active users grew 29% year-over-year to 93 million.
PRIMARY RISK
Intensifying competition from global and Asian rivals may be forcing a permanent increase in spending, capping future profitability below historical levels despite strong top-line growth.
- Trailing-twelve-month operating margin is 7.4%, down from 12% a year ago.
- Q3 operating margin compressed to 6.3%, down 40 basis points sequentially.
- Competition has intensified from 'rapidly expanding Asian e-commerce platforms'.
- Inventory grew 93.2% YoY, while revenue grew only 45.1%.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) | $23 billion in Q3 2026 - Decelerating | The year-over-year growth rate decelerated in the latest quarter, with management citing a "softer consumption environment" in Mexico. However, growth remains strong, particularly in Brazil where it was 36% YoY, benefiting from past investments like lower free shipping thresholds. |
| Fintech Monthly Active Users (MAUs) | 93 million in Q3 2026 - Stable | The user growth rate has been remarkably stable for three consecutive quarters. Management highlights that growth is fastest in Brazil (above 35% YoY) and Mexico (above 40% YoY), where Mercado Pago is positioned as the largest digital bank by active users. |
| Items Sold | 867 million (Q3 2026) | The total number of items sold on the marketplace, reflecting transaction frequency and user engagement. |
| Credit Portfolio | $17.9 billion (Q3 2026) | The size of the loan book, indicating the scale and growth of the lending business. |
Strategic Investment vs. Competitive Necessity
BULL VIEW
Deliberate spending is deepening the moat and driving valuable user habits, evidenced by 12% growth in items per buyer and a 5% reduction in Brazil's cost per shipment.
CORE TENSION
Can rising user engagement and unit cost savings prove the investment thesis before signs of macro softness and operational strain cause investors to lose patience with margin compression?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest data on user engagement and underlying unit cost improvements in Brazil favor the bull case that the strategy is working, even as headline margins remain pressured.
BEAR VIEW
Margin pressure is a forced reaction to rivals, with slowing GMV growth in Mexico (21%) and soaring inventory (+93.2%) suggesting investments are yielding diminishing returns.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
2/1/2027 | PayPal Earnings Report Watch: Peer PayPal (PYPL) is scheduled to report earnings. |
2/3/2027 | Peer Competitive Read-Through Watch: AMZN's international segment growth, particularly in emerging markets, and commentary on fulfillment and shipping cost inflation. |
2/9/2027 | Shopify Earnings Report Watch: Peer Shopify (SHOP) is scheduled to report earnings. |
2/22/2027 | Margin Pressure From Investments Watch: Guidance on 2027 operating margin and commentary on the path to re-leveraging investments made in 2026. |
No set date | Slowing Mexico Growth Watch: Commentary on Mexico consumer demand and competitive intensity from Asian platforms, which are expanding mainly in Brazil and Mexico. |
No set date | Credit Environment Deterioration Watch: Any sequential increase in 15-90 or 90+ day NPL ratios, or a significant step-up in the provision for doubtful accounts. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-11-04 | Third Quarter Earnings Reported Details: The company reported Q3 net revenue and financial income of $10.75 billion, up 45% YoY, with an operating margin of 6.3%. | -7.9% $1662.16 -> $1530.28 |
2026-09-10 | Senior Unsecured Notes Issued Details: The company announced the successful issuance of $1,000 million of 2036 senior unsecured notes, met with strong demand from over one hundred institutional investors. | +1.1% $1876.33 -> $1897.37 |
2026-08-05 | Second Quarter Earnings Reported Details: | -3.1% $1888.50 -> $1830.00 |
2026-06-30 | Securities Fraud Investigation Announced Details: A law firm announced an investigation into possible violations of federal securities laws on behalf of investors who lost money. | +3.5% $1683.13 -> $1742.19 |
2026-05-07 | Stock Drops Post-Earnings Details: The stock had a two-day reaction of -11.0% around the earnings call, as noted by market data. | -11.3% $1841.14 -> $1632.52 |
2026-05-07 | First Quarter Earnings Reported Details: | -11.3% $1841.14 -> $1632.52 |
Position Sizing
2% - 4%
REDUCED POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: MELI trades at roughly 42% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 10% for the S&P 500 (4.0x the market). A 2% - 4% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
AMZN - Amazon.com
Global Scale LeaderAmazon offers exposure to a global e-commerce footprint with vastly superior scale, logistics infrastructure, and higher operating margins of 13.1% versus MercadoLibre's 7.4%.
PYPL - a business partner
Pure-Play Fintecha business partner provides focused exposure to the global digital payments industry without the capital intensity and margin volatility of an integrated e-commerce and logistics business.
MercadoLibre is an integrated Latin American commerce and fintech flywheel, deliberately sacrificing near-term margins to accelerate user engagement and build an insurmountable, scaled ecosystem.
The company is executing a clear strategy: use profits from its established businesses to fund aggressive investments in its value proposition (e.g., cheaper/faster shipping) and high-growth areas (e.g., credit cards). This strategy aims to create highly valuable "ecosystemic users" who shop and bank on the platform, driving a virtuous cycle of engagement, scale, and long-term efficiency. The recent margin compression is not a sign of weakness, but a calculated trade-off to deepen its competitive moat and capture a massive, underpenetrated market.
Sustained high growth in user engagement KPIs (items per buyer, MAUs), continued market share gains in key markets, and improving unit economics in investment areas (e.g., declining cost per shipment, profitability of mature credit card cohorts).
A stall in user growth or engagement metrics despite continued investment, significant market share loss to competitors, or a failure to show a path to profitability for major investment initiatives like the credit card business.
Quarter-to-quarter operating margin fluctuations, which management explicitly states are a consequence of their dynamic investment decisions and not a primary focus. Negative stock reactions to earnings misses that are driven by these planned investments.
Repricing Catalyst
The market's negative reaction to the Q3 2026 earnings miss, which was driven by planned investments in logistics and marketing. The catalyst is the ongoing debate over whether the current level of spending will generate sufficient long-term returns to justify the near-term margin compression.
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Broadline Retail Resources |
| Chain Store Age |
| RetailWire |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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