MercadoLibre (MELI)
Market Price (3/15/2026): $1666.37 | Market Cap: $84.5 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Broadline Retail
MercadoLibre (MELI)
Market Price (3/15/2026): $1666.37Market Cap: $84.5 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Broadline Retail
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -22%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -36% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, CFO LTM is 12 Bil, FCF LTM is 11 Bil | ||
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -35% | ||
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 13% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Fintech & Digital Payments, Automation & Robotics, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, CFO LTM is 12 Bil, FCF LTM is 11 Bil |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -35% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 13% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Fintech & Digital Payments, Automation & Robotics, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -22%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -36% |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. MercadoLibre's Q4 2025 earnings reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $11.03, missing analysts' consensus estimates of $11.66 by $0.63. Despite robust revenue growth of 44.6% year-over-year to $8.76 billion, net income declined by 13%, driven by significant investments in growth initiatives and a normalized tax rate. The operating margin was approximately 10.1%, which was lower than anticipated due to increased spending on advertising, logistics, and other strategic areas.
2. Concerns over increasing credit risk from MercadoLibre's rapid fintech expansion have weighed on the stock. Provisions for doubtful accounts (bad loans) surged by 58% in late 2025 as the company aggressively expanded its credit book, which nearly doubled to $12.5 billion in Q4 2025. Investors are concerned about the pace of lending to unbanked customers, particularly as newer loan cohorts typically exhibit higher default volatility.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -19.4% change in MELI stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -16.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 2071.78 | 1670.00 | -19.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 26,193 | 28,893 | 10.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.9% | 6.9% | -12.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 50.6 | 42.4 | -16.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 51 | 51 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -19.4% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MELI | -19.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | -3.1% | 29.2% |
| Sector (XLY) | -6.2% | 33.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -32.5% change in MELI stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -30.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 2472.91 | 1670.00 | -32.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 24,096 | 28,893 | 19.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.5% | 6.9% | -18.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 61.1 | 42.4 | -30.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 51 | 51 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -32.5% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MELI | -32.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.0% | 36.1% |
| Sector (XLY) | -4.2% | 34.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -21.3% change in MELI stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -24.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 2121.87 | 1670.00 | -21.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 20,777 | 28,893 | 39.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.2% | 6.9% | -24.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 56.3 | 42.4 | -24.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 51 | 51 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -21.3% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MELI | -21.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.4% | 43.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | 3.4% | 40.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 36.9% change in MELI stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 168.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1220.00 | 1670.00 | 36.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 10,780 | 28,893 | 168.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.5% | 6.9% | 54.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 127.3 | 42.4 | -66.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 50 | 51 | -0.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 36.9% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MELI | 36.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 73.4% | 41.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | 56.0% | 38.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MELI Return | -20% | -37% | 86% | 8% | 18% | -12% | 5% |
| Peers Return | -0% | -55% | 42% | 40% | 15% | -13% | -10% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -1% | 80% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MELI Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 50% | 33% | 50% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 30% | 63% | 58% | 57% | 33% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MELI Max Drawdown | -37% | -55% | -2% | -14% | 0% | -15% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -18% | -62% | -10% | -14% | -20% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -2% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AMZN, PYPL, CPNG, EBAY, SHOP. See MELI Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/13/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MELI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -69.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 223.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 791 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -39.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -37.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 65 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -89.5% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 851.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 860 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to AMZN, PYPL, CPNG, EBAY, SHOP
In The Past
MercadoLibre's stock fell -69.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/20/2021. A -69.1% loss requires a 223.9% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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About MercadoLibre (MELI)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for MercadoLibre:
- The Amazon of Latin America.
- A blend of Amazon and PayPal for Latin America.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Mercado Libre Marketplace: An automated online commerce platform enabling businesses, merchants, and individuals to list merchandise and conduct sales and purchases.
- Mercado Pago FinTech: A financial technology solution platform that facilitates online transactions by allowing users to send, receive, and transfer payments.
- Mercado Fondo: A service that allows users to invest funds deposited in their Mercado Pago accounts.
- Mercado Credito: A lending service that extends loans to certain merchants and consumers.
- Mercado Envios: A logistics solution providing sellers with third-party carrier options, fulfillment, and warehousing services.
- Mercado Libre Classifieds: An online classified listing service for motor vehicles, real estate, and other services.
- Mercado Libre Ads: An advertising platform enabling retailers and brands to promote products and services on the internet.
- Mercado Shops: An online storefronts solution for users to set up, manage, and promote their own digital stores.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Major Customers of MercadoLibre (MELI)
MercadoLibre operates a vast e-commerce and fintech ecosystem in Latin America, serving a diverse customer base that includes both individuals and businesses. Due to the nature of its marketplace model, it does not have a small number of individually identifiable "major customer companies" in the traditional sense. Instead, its customer base comprises millions of users, both consumers and businesses, across its various platforms. Therefore, its customers are best described by categories:
-
Individual Consumers (Buyers)
These are the millions of individuals across Latin America who utilize the Mercado Libre Marketplace to browse and purchase a wide array of goods and services. They also engage with Mercado Pago for digital payments, money transfers, personal investments (Mercado Fondo), and may access consumer loans through Mercado Credito. This category represents the demand side of the marketplace.
-
Small to Medium-sized Businesses (SMBs) & Individual Entrepreneurs (Sellers)
This group consists of numerous small to medium-sized businesses and individual sellers who leverage the Mercado Libre platform to list and sell their products. They extensively use Mercado Pago for receiving payments, Mercado Envios for logistics and fulfillment, Mercado Credito for business financing, Mercado Libre Ads for promotional activities, and Mercado Shops to establish and manage their online storefronts. They form the supply side of the marketplace and are a significant source of direct revenue for MercadoLibre.
-
Large Retailers and Brands
Larger companies, established retailers, and prominent brands utilize the Mercado Libre Marketplace as a key sales channel to reach a massive audience. They often make significant use of Mercado Libre Ads to promote their products and services and may integrate with Mercado Envios for efficient logistics and warehousing solutions.
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- The emergence and rapid growth of social commerce platforms (e.g., TikTok Shop, Instagram Shopping) and live shopping models, which directly compete for merchant engagement and consumer purchases, potentially diverting sales from MercadoLibre's traditional marketplace and advertising platforms.
- The proliferation of government-backed real-time payment systems (e.g., Brazil's Pix), offering low-cost, instant transaction alternatives that can bypass Mercado Pago's proprietary payment network, potentially impacting its transaction revenue and reducing the stickiness of its financial ecosystem.
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Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to MELI.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02272026 | MBLY | Mobileye Global | Dip Buy | DB | Cash/EquityDip Buyer with High Net Cash % EquityBuying dips for companies with significant net cash as a % of market cap along with meaningful cash flow generation | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02202026 | SAH | Sonic Automotive | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.9% | -5.9% | -6.1% |
| 02132026 | MAT | Mattel | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.0% |
| 02132026 | SONO | Sonos | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.7% | -0.7% | -4.6% |
| 02062026 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.6% | 1.6% | -0.8% |
Research & Analysis
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Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 107.15 |
| Mkt Cap | 63.3 |
| Rev LTM | 31,032 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,739 |
| FCF LTM | 3,786 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 3,652 |
| CFO LTM | 4,224 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 4,251 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 15.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 14.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 13.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 63.3 |
| P/S | 3.0 |
| P/EBIT | 25.3 |
| P/E | 35.5 |
| P/CFO | 17.5 |
| Total Yield | 2.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.8% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -21.1% |
| 6M Rtn | -21.4% |
| 12M Rtn | -4.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 79.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -19.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -24.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -27.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 6.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $1,670.00 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 84.7 | |
| First Trading Date | 08/10/2007 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -36.1% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $1,994.72 | $2,215.97 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -16.3% | -24.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 41.1% | 39.5% |
| Downside Capture | 216.05 | 116.25 |
| Upside Capture | 135.71 | 75.20 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 34.0% | 42.4% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.30 | 1.09 | 0.95 | 1.32 | 0.87 | 1.03 |
| Up Beta | -2.28 | -0.92 | -0.80 | 1.06 | 0.89 | 1.08 |
| Down Beta | 0.73 | 0.70 | 0.64 | 1.96 | 0.81 | 0.81 |
| Up Capture | -83% | 124% | 97% | 42% | 59% | 118% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 5 | 14 | 25 | 57 | 126 | 390 |
| Down Capture | 263% | 223% | 193% | 151% | 104% | 104% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 16 | 27 | 36 | 67 | 124 | 361 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MELI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MELI | -17.7% | 39.5% | -0.40 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 13.0% | 23.7% | 0.46 | 39.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 19.6% | 18.9% | 0.81 | 42.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 71.9% | 26.3% | 2.05 | 0.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.3% | 17.3% | 0.89 | 9.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.2% | 16.3% | 0.19 | 21.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -15.3% | 44.2% | -0.25 | 23.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MELI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MELI | 3.8% | 49.7% | 0.25 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 8.0% | 23.7% | 0.30 | 57.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.0% | 0.61 | 55.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.1% | 17.3% | 1.14 | 5.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.2% | 19.0% | 0.47 | 11.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 18.8% | 0.16 | 37.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 6.3% | 56.7% | 0.33 | 28.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MELI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MELI | 31.3% | 48.5% | 0.75 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.4% | 21.9% | 0.52 | 55.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.5% | 17.9% | 0.70 | 53.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.4% | 15.6% | 0.77 | 5.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 16.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 34.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.4% | 66.8% | 1.07 | 16.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/24/2026 | -8.1% | -10.8% | |
| 10/29/2025 | 2.8% | 0.3% | -10.1% |
| 8/4/2025 | 0.5% | -4.3% | -0.9% |
| 5/7/2025 | 6.5% | 13.3% | 9.7% |
| 2/20/2025 | 7.1% | 0.9% | -0.7% |
| 11/6/2024 | -16.2% | -8.8% | -8.0% |
| 8/1/2024 | 10.6% | 16.4% | 28.4% |
| 5/2/2024 | 8.3% | 12.6% | 12.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 17 | 14 | 11 |
| # Negative | 5 | 8 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 7.1% | 12.6% | 18.4% |
| Median Negative | -8.1% | -9.8% | -11.0% |
| Max Positive | 19.6% | 26.7% | 36.6% |
| Max Negative | -16.2% | -20.8% | -28.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/23/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/06/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dubugras, Henrique Vasoncelos | TDB Capital LLC | Sell | 12152025 | 2028.14 | 845 | Form | |||
| 2 | Calemzuk, Emiliano | Direct | Sell | 12122025 | 2027.37 | 45 | 91,232 | 521,034 | Form | |
| 3 | Tolda, Stelleo | Didomi Fund | Sell | 12112025 | 2047.88 | 246 | Form | |||
| 4 | Melamud, Marcelo | SVP - Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Buy | 3022026 | 1755.77 | 57 | 100,079 | 196,646 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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