Tearsheet

MercadoLibre (MELI)


Market Price (3/15/2026): $1666.37 | Market Cap: $84.5 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Broadline Retail

MercadoLibre (MELI)


Market Price (3/15/2026): $1666.37
Market Cap: $84.5 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Broadline Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -22%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -36%
 
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, CFO LTM is 12 Bil, FCF LTM is 11 Bil
  
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -35%
  
3 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 13%
  
4 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 39%
  
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Fintech & Digital Payments, Automation & Robotics, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Show more.
  
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, CFO LTM is 12 Bil, FCF LTM is 11 Bil
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -35%
3 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 13%
4 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 39%
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Fintech & Digital Payments, Automation & Robotics, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Show more.
6 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -22%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -36%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

MercadoLibre (MELI) stock has lost about 20% since 11/30/2025 because of the following key factors:

1. MercadoLibre's Q4 2025 earnings reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $11.03, missing analysts' consensus estimates of $11.66 by $0.63. Despite robust revenue growth of 44.6% year-over-year to $8.76 billion, net income declined by 13%, driven by significant investments in growth initiatives and a normalized tax rate. The operating margin was approximately 10.1%, which was lower than anticipated due to increased spending on advertising, logistics, and other strategic areas.

2. Concerns over increasing credit risk from MercadoLibre's rapid fintech expansion have weighed on the stock. Provisions for doubtful accounts (bad loans) surged by 58% in late 2025 as the company aggressively expanded its credit book, which nearly doubled to $12.5 billion in Q4 2025. Investors are concerned about the pace of lending to unbanked customers, particularly as newer loan cohorts typically exhibit higher default volatility.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -19.4% change in MELI stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -16.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)113020253132026Change
Stock Price ($)2071.781670.00-19.4%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)26,19328,89310.3%
Net Income Margin (%)7.9%6.9%-12.8%
P/E Multiple50.642.4-16.2%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)51510.0%
Cumulative Contribution-19.4%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

11/30/2025 to 3/13/2026
ReturnCorrelation
MELI-19.4% 
Market (SPY)-3.1%29.2%
Sector (XLY)-6.2%33.4%

Fundamental Drivers

The -32.5% change in MELI stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -30.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)83120253132026Change
Stock Price ($)2472.911670.00-32.5%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)24,09628,89319.9%
Net Income Margin (%)8.5%6.9%-18.9%
P/E Multiple61.142.4-30.6%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)51510.0%
Cumulative Contribution-32.5%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

8/31/2025 to 3/13/2026
ReturnCorrelation
MELI-32.5% 
Market (SPY)3.0%36.1%
Sector (XLY)-4.2%34.1%

Fundamental Drivers

The -21.3% change in MELI stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -24.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)22820253132026Change
Stock Price ($)2121.871670.00-21.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)20,77728,89339.1%
Net Income Margin (%)9.2%6.9%-24.9%
P/E Multiple56.342.4-24.7%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)51510.0%
Cumulative Contribution-21.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

2/28/2025 to 3/13/2026
ReturnCorrelation
MELI-21.3% 
Market (SPY)12.4%43.4%
Sector (XLY)3.4%40.5%

Fundamental Drivers

The 36.9% change in MELI stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 168.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)22820233132026Change
Stock Price ($)1220.001670.0036.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)10,78028,893168.0%
Net Income Margin (%)4.5%6.9%54.6%
P/E Multiple127.342.4-66.7%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)5051-0.8%
Cumulative Contribution36.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

2/28/2023 to 3/13/2026
ReturnCorrelation
MELI36.9% 
Market (SPY)73.4%41.0%
Sector (XLY)56.0%38.9%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
MELI Return-20%-37%86%8%18%-12%5%
Peers Return-0%-55%42%40%15%-13%-10%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%-1%80%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MELI Win Rate50%42%50%33%50%67% 
Peers Win Rate53%30%63%58%57%33% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%33% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MELI Max Drawdown-37%-55%-2%-14%0%-15% 
Peers Max Drawdown-18%-62%-10%-14%-20%-23% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%-2% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AMZN, PYPL, CPNG, EBAY, SHOP. See MELI Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/13/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMELIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-69.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven223.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven791 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-39.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven66.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven35 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-37.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven60.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven65 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-89.5%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven851.8%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven860 days1,480 days

Compare to AMZN, PYPL, CPNG, EBAY, SHOP

In The Past

MercadoLibre's stock fell -69.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/20/2021. A -69.1% loss requires a 223.9% gain to breakeven.

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Asset Allocation

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About MercadoLibre (MELI)

MercadoLibre, Inc. operates online commerce platforms in Latin America. It operates Mercado Libre Marketplace, an automated online commerce platform that enables businesses, merchants, and individuals to list merchandise and conduct sales and purchases online; and Mercado Pago FinTech, a financial technology solution platform, which facilitates transactions on and off its marketplaces by providing a mechanism that allows its users to send and receive payments online, as well as allows users to transfer money through their websites or on the apps. The company also offers Mercado Fondo that allows users to invest funds deposited in their Mercado Pago accounts; Mercado Credito, which extends loans to certain merchants and consumers; and Mercado Envios logistics solution that enables sellers on its platform to utilize third-party carriers and other logistics service providers, as well as fulfillment and warehousing services for sellers. In addition, it provides Mercado Libre Classifieds, an online classified listing service, where users can list and purchase motor vehicles, real estate, and services; Mercado Libre Ads, an advertising platform, which enables large retailers and brands to promote their products and services on the Internet; and Mercado Shops, an online storefronts solution that enables users to set-up, manage, and promote their own digital stores. MercadoLibre, Inc. was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Montevideo, Uruguay.

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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for MercadoLibre:

  • The Amazon of Latin America.
  • A blend of Amazon and PayPal for Latin America.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Mercado Libre Marketplace: An automated online commerce platform enabling businesses, merchants, and individuals to list merchandise and conduct sales and purchases.
  • Mercado Pago FinTech: A financial technology solution platform that facilitates online transactions by allowing users to send, receive, and transfer payments.
  • Mercado Fondo: A service that allows users to invest funds deposited in their Mercado Pago accounts.
  • Mercado Credito: A lending service that extends loans to certain merchants and consumers.
  • Mercado Envios: A logistics solution providing sellers with third-party carrier options, fulfillment, and warehousing services.
  • Mercado Libre Classifieds: An online classified listing service for motor vehicles, real estate, and other services.
  • Mercado Libre Ads: An advertising platform enabling retailers and brands to promote products and services on the internet.
  • Mercado Shops: An online storefronts solution for users to set up, manage, and promote their own digital stores.

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Major Customers of MercadoLibre (MELI)

MercadoLibre operates a vast e-commerce and fintech ecosystem in Latin America, serving a diverse customer base that includes both individuals and businesses. Due to the nature of its marketplace model, it does not have a small number of individually identifiable "major customer companies" in the traditional sense. Instead, its customer base comprises millions of users, both consumers and businesses, across its various platforms. Therefore, its customers are best described by categories:

  • Individual Consumers (Buyers)

    These are the millions of individuals across Latin America who utilize the Mercado Libre Marketplace to browse and purchase a wide array of goods and services. They also engage with Mercado Pago for digital payments, money transfers, personal investments (Mercado Fondo), and may access consumer loans through Mercado Credito. This category represents the demand side of the marketplace.

  • Small to Medium-sized Businesses (SMBs) & Individual Entrepreneurs (Sellers)

    This group consists of numerous small to medium-sized businesses and individual sellers who leverage the Mercado Libre platform to list and sell their products. They extensively use Mercado Pago for receiving payments, Mercado Envios for logistics and fulfillment, Mercado Credito for business financing, Mercado Libre Ads for promotional activities, and Mercado Shops to establish and manage their online storefronts. They form the supply side of the marketplace and are a significant source of direct revenue for MercadoLibre.

  • Large Retailers and Brands

    Larger companies, established retailers, and prominent brands utilize the Mercado Libre Marketplace as a key sales channel to reach a massive audience. They often make significant use of Mercado Libre Ads to promote their products and services and may integrate with Mercado Envios for efficient logistics and warehousing solutions.

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  • The emergence and rapid growth of social commerce platforms (e.g., TikTok Shop, Instagram Shopping) and live shopping models, which directly compete for merchant engagement and consumer purchases, potentially diverting sales from MercadoLibre's traditional marketplace and advertising platforms.
  • The proliferation of government-backed real-time payment systems (e.g., Brazil's Pix), offering low-cost, instant transaction alternatives that can bypass Mercado Pago's proprietary payment network, potentially impacting its transaction revenue and reducing the stickiness of its financial ecosystem.

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Better Bets vs. MercadoLibre (MELI)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select ideas related to MELI.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
MBLY_2272026_Dip_Buyer_HighCashEquity_ExInd02272026MBLYMobileye GlobalDip BuyDB | Cash/EquityDip Buyer with High Net Cash % Equity
Buying dips for companies with significant net cash as a % of market cap along with meaningful cash flow generation
0.0%0.0%0.0%
SAH_2202026_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE_V202202026SAHSonic AutomotiveInsiderInsider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider Buying
Companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
-5.9%-5.9%-6.1%
MAT_2132026_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE_V202132026MATMattelInsiderInsider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider Buying
Companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
2.9%2.9%0.0%
SONO_2132026_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE_V202132026SONOSonosInsiderInsider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider Buying
Companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
-0.7%-0.7%-4.6%
DECK_2062026_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy02062026DECKDeckers OutdoorDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
1.6%1.6%-0.8%

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MELIAMZNPYPLCPNGEBAYSHOPMedian
NameMercadoL.Amazon.c.PayPal Coupang eBay Shopify  
Mkt Price1,670.00207.6744.9018.4591.34122.96107.15
Mkt Cap84.72,224.141.833.741.4160.263.3
Rev LTM28,893716,92433,17234,53411,10011,55631,032
Op Inc LTM3,20179,9756,3964732,2771,8852,739
FCF LTM10,7737,6955,5645221,4342,0073,786
FCF 3Y Avg7,48724,2635,5171,0951,7871,5033,652
CFO LTM12,116139,5146,4161,7731,9592,0334,224
CFO 3Y Avg8,391113,4466,2362,1042,2661,5314,251

Growth & Margins

MELIAMZNPYPLCPNGEBAYSHOPMedian
NameMercadoL.Amazon.c.PayPal Coupang eBay Shopify  
Rev Chg LTM39.1%12.4%4.3%14.1%7.9%30.1%13.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg38.9%11.7%6.4%18.9%4.3%27.3%15.3%
Rev Chg Q44.6%13.6%3.7%10.9%15.0%30.6%14.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM10.3%3.7%0.9%2.6%3.6%8.0%3.7%
Op Mgn LTM11.1%11.2%19.3%1.4%20.5%16.3%13.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg12.8%9.4%18.0%1.6%20.8%10.7%11.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.9%0.1%0.1%-0.9%-0.2%0.6%-0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM41.9%19.5%19.3%5.1%17.6%17.6%18.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg38.0%17.5%19.7%7.4%21.7%16.4%18.6%
FCF/Rev LTM37.3%1.1%16.8%1.5%12.9%17.4%14.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg34.0%3.9%17.4%4.0%17.1%16.1%16.6%

Valuation

MELIAMZNPYPLCPNGEBAYSHOPMedian
NameMercadoL.Amazon.c.PayPal Coupang eBay Shopify  
Mkt Cap84.72,224.141.833.741.4160.263.3
P/S2.93.11.31.03.713.93.0
P/EBIT28.222.36.249.316.285.025.3
P/E42.428.68.0161.820.4130.135.5
P/CFO7.015.96.519.021.178.817.5
Total Yield2.4%3.5%12.5%0.6%6.2%0.8%2.9%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%1.3%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg8.2%1.3%8.2%3.3%6.3%1.0%4.8%
D/E0.10.10.20.10.20.00.1
Net D/E0.10.0-0.0-0.10.1-0.00.0

Returns

MELIAMZNPYPLCPNGEBAYSHOPMedian
NameMercadoL.Amazon.c.PayPal Coupang eBay Shopify  
1M Rtn-17.3%1.8%11.3%4.5%10.6%3.6%4.0%
3M Rtn-17.2%-8.2%-27.0%-28.0%7.4%-25.1%-21.1%
6M Rtn-28.6%-9.0%-32.5%-43.1%1.3%-14.2%-21.4%
12M Rtn-16.1%7.1%-32.5%-16.8%44.8%35.7%-4.5%
3Y Rtn37.5%118.9%-38.4%39.6%134.5%180.7%79.2%
1M Excs Rtn-14.9%4.1%13.7%6.9%13.0%6.0%6.4%
3M Excs Rtn-13.6%-8.8%-24.8%-27.6%12.5%-25.4%-19.2%
6M Excs Rtn-31.4%-12.5%-35.8%-46.0%-3.4%-18.1%-24.8%
12M Excs Rtn-37.7%-16.6%-55.2%-38.2%21.9%6.4%-27.2%
3Y Excs Rtn-36.4%51.4%-110.2%-40.0%49.6%111.6%6.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Commerce services6,754    
Financial services and income4,317    
Credit revenues2,546    
Commerce products sales1,447    
Fintech products sales43    
Commerce revenues 5,8084,6352,5601,346
Fintech revenues 4,7292,4341,414950
Total15,10710,5377,0693,9732,296


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$1,670.00 
Market Cap ($ Bil)84.7 
First Trading Date08/10/2007 
Distance from 52W High-36.1% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$1,994.72$2,215.97
DMA Trenddowndown
Distance from DMA-16.3%-24.6%
 3M1YR
Volatility41.1%39.5%
Downside Capture216.05116.25
Upside Capture135.7175.20
Correlation (SPY)34.0%42.4%
MELI Betas & Captures as of 2/28/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta0.301.090.951.320.871.03
Up Beta-2.28-0.92-0.801.060.891.08
Down Beta0.730.700.641.960.810.81
Up Capture-83%124%97%42%59%118%
Bmk +ve Days9203170142431
Stock +ve Days5142557126390
Down Capture263%223%193%151%104%104%
Bmk -ve Days12213054109320
Stock -ve Days16273667124361

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with MELI
MELI-17.7%39.5%-0.40-
Sector ETF (XLY)13.0%23.7%0.4639.5%
Equity (SPY)19.6%18.9%0.8142.7%
Gold (GLD)71.9%26.3%2.050.8%
Commodities (DBC)19.3%17.3%0.899.9%
Real Estate (VNQ)6.2%16.3%0.1921.2%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-15.3%44.2%-0.2523.8%

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Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with MELI
MELI3.8%49.7%0.25-
Sector ETF (XLY)8.0%23.7%0.3057.6%
Equity (SPY)13.1%17.0%0.6155.9%
Gold (GLD)24.1%17.3%1.145.5%
Commodities (DBC)11.2%19.0%0.4711.0%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.8%18.8%0.1637.8%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)6.3%56.7%0.3328.0%

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Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with MELI
MELI31.3%48.5%0.75-
Sector ETF (XLY)12.4%21.9%0.5255.1%
Equity (SPY)14.5%17.9%0.7053.0%
Gold (GLD)14.4%15.6%0.775.3%
Commodities (DBC)8.6%17.6%0.4016.3%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.6%20.7%0.2334.1%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)67.4%66.8%1.0716.5%

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Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date2272026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity0.9 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 215202614.8%
Average Daily Volume0.6 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.4 days
Basic Shares Quantity50.7 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares1.8%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
2/24/2026-8.1%-10.8% 
10/29/20252.8%0.3%-10.1%
8/4/20250.5%-4.3%-0.9%
5/7/20256.5%13.3%9.7%
2/20/20257.1%0.9%-0.7%
11/6/2024-16.2%-8.8%-8.0%
8/1/202410.6%16.4%28.4%
5/2/20248.3%12.6%12.4%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive171411
# Negative5810
Median Positive7.1%12.6%18.4%
Median Negative-8.1%-9.8%-11.0%
Max Positive19.6%26.7%36.6%
Max Negative-16.2%-20.8%-28.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
12/31/202502/25/202610-K
09/30/202510/30/202510-Q
06/30/202508/05/202510-Q
03/31/202505/08/202510-Q
12/31/202402/21/202510-K
09/30/202411/07/202410-Q
06/30/202408/02/202410-Q
03/31/202405/03/202410-Q
12/31/202302/23/202410-K
09/30/202311/02/202310-Q
06/30/202308/03/202310-Q
03/31/202305/04/202310-Q
12/31/202202/24/202310-K
09/30/202211/04/202210-Q
06/30/202208/04/202210-Q
03/31/202205/06/202210-Q

Insider Activity

Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Dubugras, Henrique Vasoncelos TDB Capital LLCSell121520252028.14845  Form
2Calemzuk, Emiliano DirectSell121220252027.374591,232521,034Form
3Tolda, StelleoDidomi FundSell121120252047.88246  Form
4Melamud, MarceloSVP - Chief Accounting OfficerDirectBuy30220261755.7757100,079196,646Form