MercadoLibre (MELI)
Market Price (9/12/2026): $1894.03 | Market Cap: $96.0 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Broadline Retail
MercadoLibre (MELI)
Market Price (9/12/2026): $1894.03Market Cap: $96.0 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Broadline Retail
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, CFO LTM is 14 Bil, FCF LTM is 12 Bil Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 13% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Fintech & Digital Payments, Automation & Robotics, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -46%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -38% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 34x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 52x Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.3% Key risksMELI key risks include [1] intensifying competition across its e-commerce and fintech segments from aggressive global and regional rivals, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, CFO LTM is 14 Bil, FCF LTM is 12 Bil |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 13% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Fintech & Digital Payments, Automation & Robotics, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -46%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -38% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 34x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 52x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.3% |
| Key risksMELI key risks include [1] intensifying competition across its e-commerce and fintech segments from aggressive global and regional rivals, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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MercadoLibre (MELI) stock has gained about 10% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Revenue and Earnings Outperformance in Fiscal Q2 2026.
MercadoLibre reported its fiscal Q2 2026 earnings on August 5, 2026, showcasing net revenues and financial income of $10.2 billion, which exceeded Wall Street estimates and represented a 50% year-over-year growth (43% on an FX-neutral basis). The company also delivered an Adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $9.19, surpassing analysts' consensus estimates of $8.65 by $0.54. This significant beat on both top and bottom lines likely contributed to investor optimism despite a noted contraction in operating margins due to strategic investments.
2. Robust Growth and Deepening Engagement Across Key Business Segments.
The company demonstrated substantial operational expansion in its fiscal Q2 2026 results. Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) increased by 44% year-over-year to $21.9 billion, and Total Payment Volume (TPV) in the Mercado Pago fintech segment surged by 56% year-over-year, reaching $101.0 billion. Furthermore, MercadoLibre added nearly 19 million unique active buyers, growing its total unique active buyers to 89.3 million, a 26% year-over-year increase. The credit portfolio also expanded dramatically to $16.4 billion, reflecting 75% year-over-year growth. These metrics underscore strong user engagement and successful scaling of its integrated e-commerce and fintech ecosystem.
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MercadoLibre (MELI) stock has gained about 10% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Revenue and Earnings Outperformance in Fiscal Q2 2026.
MercadoLibre reported its fiscal Q2 2026 earnings on August 5, 2026, showcasing net revenues and financial income of $10.2 billion, which exceeded Wall Street estimates and represented a 50% year-over-year growth (43% on an FX-neutral basis). The company also delivered an Adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $9.19, surpassing analysts' consensus estimates of $8.65 by $0.54. This significant beat on both top and bottom lines likely contributed to investor optimism despite a noted contraction in operating margins due to strategic investments.
2. Robust Growth and Deepening Engagement Across Key Business Segments.
The company demonstrated substantial operational expansion in its fiscal Q2 2026 results. Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) increased by 44% year-over-year to $21.9 billion, and Total Payment Volume (TPV) in the Mercado Pago fintech segment surged by 56% year-over-year, reaching $101.0 billion. Furthermore, MercadoLibre added nearly 19 million unique active buyers, growing its total unique active buyers to 89.3 million, a 26% year-over-year increase. The credit portfolio also expanded dramatically to $16.4 billion, reflecting 75% year-over-year growth. These metrics underscore strong user engagement and successful scaling of its integrated e-commerce and fintech ecosystem.
3. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Favorable Price Targets.
Throughout the period, analysts maintained a generally positive outlook on MercadoLibre stock, with a consensus rating of "Buy" or "Moderate Buy." As of early September 2026, the average 12-month price targets from various analysts ranged from approximately $2,248 to $2,303, suggesting a considerable upside from its current trading levels. This continued analyst confidence, often acknowledging the company's strategic investments in market share over short-term profitability, bolstered investor sentiment.
4. Sustained Growth in the Latin American E-commerce Market.
The broader macroeconomic environment in Latin America provided a strong tailwind for MercadoLibre. The region's B2C e-commerce market is projected to reach $215.31 billion in 2026, continuing to grow at a pace 1.5 times faster than the global average. This growth is underpinned by increasing internet penetration, widespread smartphone usage (84% of online purchases are made via smartphones), growing financial inclusion, and rising consumer confidence in online purchasing. As a dominant player in this expanding market, MercadoLibre is well-positioned to benefit from these favorable industry trends.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 11.9% change in MELI stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/11/2026 was primarily driven by a 15.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9112026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1695.65 | 1897.37 | 11.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 31,803 | 35,182 | 10.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.0% | 5.3% | -12.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 44.8 | 51.6 | 15.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 51 | 51 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 11.9% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/11/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MELI | 11.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.0% | 18.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | -6.5% | 43.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 8.0% change in MELI stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/11/2026 was primarily driven by a 21.8% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 9112026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1757.58 | 1897.37 | 8.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 28,893 | 35,182 | 21.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.9% | 5.3% | -23.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 44.6 | 51.6 | 15.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 51 | 51 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 8.0% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/11/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MELI | 8.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.7% | 31.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | -3.1% | 45.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -23.3% change in MELI stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/11/2026 was primarily driven by a -37.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 9112026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 2472.91 | 1897.37 | -23.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 24,096 | 35,182 | 46.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.5% | 5.3% | -37.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 61.1 | 51.6 | -15.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 51 | 51 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -23.3% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/11/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MELI | -23.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 19.5% | 32.7% |
| Sector (XLY) | -1.9% | 38.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 38.3% change in MELI stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/11/2026 was primarily driven by a 176.9% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 8312023 | 9112026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1372.36 | 1897.37 | 38.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 12,706 | 35,182 | 176.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.0% | 5.3% | -11.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 90.9 | 51.6 | -43.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 50 | 51 | -1.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 38.3% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/11/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MELI | 38.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.7% | 37.9% |
| Sector (XLY) | 35.3% | 37.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MELI Return | -20% | -37% | 86% | 8% | 18% | -5% | 14% |
| Peers Return | -0% | -55% | 42% | 40% | 15% | -7% | -4% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 102% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MELI Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 50% | 33% | 50% | 56% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 30% | 63% | 58% | 57% | 42% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 44% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MELI Max Drawdown | -47% | -55% | -19% | -25% | -27% | -33% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -27% | -62% | -30% | -22% | -32% | -31% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AMZN, PYPL, CPNG, EBAY, SHOP. See MELI Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/11/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MELI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -13.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 8 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -54.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 117.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 340 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -39.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -27.3% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.5% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -19.3% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 23.9% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 62 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -29.0% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.8% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 64 days | 62 days |
In The Past
MercadoLibre's stock fell -13.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 15.7% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | MELI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -54.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 117.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 340 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -39.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -27.3% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.5% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -29.0% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.8% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 64 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -24.9% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.1% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 31 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -39.5% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 65.4% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 31 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -88.6% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 779.8% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 662 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
MercadoLibre's stock fell -13.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 15.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About MercadoLibre (MELI)
MercadoLibre (MELI) is a prominent e-commerce and financial technology company serving the Latin American market. Its primary offering is the Mercado Libre Marketplace, an automated online platform that empowers businesses, merchants, and individuals to list, sell, and purchase a vast array of merchandise across the region. This core marketplace facilitates a significant volume of digital commerce, connecting buyers and sellers throughout Latin America.
Complementing its marketplace, MercadoLibre offers a comprehensive suite of integrated services. Its FinTech platform, Mercado Pago, provides essential financial solutions, including online payment processing, digital wallets for money transfers, investment options through Mercado Fondo, and credit facilities via Mercado Credito for both consumers and merchants. Additionally, the company streamlines operations with Mercado Envios, a logistics solution encompassing shipping, fulfillment, and warehousing. Further extending its ecosystem, MercadoLibre provides Mercado Libre Classifieds for listings like vehicles and real estate, Mercado Libre Ads for advertising, and Mercado Shops, which enables users to establish and manage their own digital storefronts.
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- The Amazon of Latin America.
- A blend of Amazon and PayPal for Latin America.
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- Mercado Libre Marketplace: An automated online commerce platform enabling businesses, merchants, and individuals to list merchandise and conduct sales and purchases.
- Mercado Pago FinTech: A financial technology solution platform that facilitates online transactions by allowing users to send, receive, and transfer payments.
- Mercado Fondo: A service that allows users to invest funds deposited in their Mercado Pago accounts.
- Mercado Credito: A lending service that extends loans to certain merchants and consumers.
- Mercado Envios: A logistics solution providing sellers with third-party carrier options, fulfillment, and warehousing services.
- Mercado Libre Classifieds: An online classified listing service for motor vehicles, real estate, and other services.
- Mercado Libre Ads: An advertising platform enabling retailers and brands to promote products and services on the internet.
- Mercado Shops: An online storefronts solution for users to set up, manage, and promote their own digital stores.
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Major Customers of MercadoLibre (MELI)
MercadoLibre operates a vast e-commerce and fintech ecosystem in Latin America, serving a diverse customer base that includes both individuals and businesses. Due to the nature of its marketplace model, it does not have a small number of individually identifiable "major customer companies" in the traditional sense. Instead, its customer base comprises millions of users, both consumers and businesses, across its various platforms. Therefore, its customers are best described by categories:
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Individual Consumers (Buyers)
These are the millions of individuals across Latin America who utilize the Mercado Libre Marketplace to browse and purchase a wide array of goods and services. They also engage with Mercado Pago for digital payments, money transfers, personal investments (Mercado Fondo), and may access consumer loans through Mercado Credito. This category represents the demand side of the marketplace.
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Small to Medium-sized Businesses (SMBs) & Individual Entrepreneurs (Sellers)
This group consists of numerous small to medium-sized businesses and individual sellers who leverage the Mercado Libre platform to list and sell their products. They extensively use Mercado Pago for receiving payments, Mercado Envios for logistics and fulfillment, Mercado Credito for business financing, Mercado Libre Ads for promotional activities, and Mercado Shops to establish and manage their online storefronts. They form the supply side of the marketplace and are a significant source of direct revenue for MercadoLibre.
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Large Retailers and Brands
Larger companies, established retailers, and prominent brands utilize the Mercado Libre Marketplace as a key sales channel to reach a massive audience. They often make significant use of Mercado Libre Ads to promote their products and services and may integrate with Mercado Envios for efficient logistics and warehousing solutions.
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Ariel Szarfsztejn President and Chief Executive Officer
Ariel Szarfsztejn was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of MercadoLibre on January 1, 2026. He previously served as Commerce President of MercadoLibre since January 2024. Mr. Szarfsztejn joined MercadoLibre in 2017, initially working in Strategy and New Business. He subsequently led the development of the company's logistics network across Latin America and, for three years, successfully managed the Marketplace division. He holds a degree in Economics from the University of Buenos Aires and completed a postgraduate degree at Stanford. Prior to his tenure at MercadoLibre, his first formal corporate position was in Human Resources at Citibank.
Martín de los Santos Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Martín de los Santos has served as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of MercadoLibre since January 2024, having previously been Senior Vice President & CFO from August 2023. He initially joined MercadoLibre in 2008 and has held various significant roles, including Senior Vice President of the credits division. Earlier in his career, he held positions at Vostu, IMPSA, Merrill Lynch, McKinsey & Co., and Goldman Sachs. Mr. de los Santos also served as an independent director of MercadoLibre from 2008 to 2013. He holds an MBA from Stanford University and a B.S. in Business Administration from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
Marcos Galperin Co-Founder and Executive Chairman of the Board
Marcos Galperin is the co-founder of MercadoLibre and, as of January 1, 2026, serves as the Executive Chairman of the Board, transitioning from his role as CEO. He co-founded Mercado Libre in 1999 while pursuing his MBA at Stanford University, where he conceived the idea for an eBay-like platform for Latin America. Prior to founding MercadoLibre, he worked at J.P. Morgan Securities in New York and managed YPF S.A.'s currency and oil derivatives program in Argentina. He earned an MBA from Stanford University and graduated with honors from the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, with a B.S. in Economics. Mr. Galperin secured initial funding for MercadoLibre through the Hicks Muse private equity fund.
Osvaldo Giménez Fintech President
Osvaldo Giménez has been MercadoLibre's Fintech President since August 2020, where he oversees Mercado Pago's operations, a division he has led since 2004. He joined MercadoLibre in 2000 as Country Manager for Argentina and Chile. Before his time at MercadoLibre, he worked as an associate consultant at Booz Allen & Hamilton and in the fixed income department at Santander Investments in New York. Mr. Giménez holds an MBA from Stanford University Graduate School of Business and a B.S. in Industrial Engineering from the Instituto Tecnológico de Buenos Aires.
Daniel Rabinovich Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer
Daniel Rabinovich serves as MercadoLibre's Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer. He is an experienced executive within the company, having previously held the position of Senior Vice President of Mercado Envios, which is MercadoLibre's logistics and supply chain division.
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The key risks to MercadoLibre's business are primarily linked to the macroeconomic and political environment in Latin America, intense competition in its core e-commerce and FinTech segments, and the inherent credit risks associated with its rapidly expanding lending portfolio.
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Economic and Political Instability in Latin America: MercadoLibre's operations are heavily concentrated in Latin American countries such as Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina, making it highly susceptible to regional macro headwinds. Risks include slowing economic growth, high inflation, political uncertainties, and foreign exchange rate fluctuations, which can impact consumer purchasing power, merchant activity, and overall profitability.
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Intense Competition: MercadoLibre faces significant competitive challenges across its e-commerce and FinTech platforms. The company competes with global e-commerce giants, local online retailers, traditional banks, and emerging FinTech companies, including aggressive players like Shopee and Temu. This intense competition can lead to increased investment in logistics, marketing, and pricing pressures, which in turn can compress profit margins.
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Credit Risk from FinTech Operations: The rapid expansion of MercadoLibre's FinTech segment, particularly its Mercado Credito lending solution, exposes the company to significant credit risk. While the credit portfolio has shown substantial growth, there are concerns about rising non-performing loans (NPLs) and the potential for increased defaults, especially given the volatile economic conditions in some of its operating markets.
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- The emergence and rapid growth of social commerce platforms (e.g., TikTok Shop, Instagram Shopping) and live shopping models, which directly compete for merchant engagement and consumer purchases, potentially diverting sales from MercadoLibre's traditional marketplace and advertising platforms.
- The proliferation of government-backed real-time payment systems (e.g., Brazil's Pix), offering low-cost, instant transaction alternatives that can bypass Mercado Pago's proprietary payment network, potentially impacting its transaction revenue and reducing the stickiness of its financial ecosystem.
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Addressable Markets for MercadoLibre's Main Products and Services in Latin America
- Mercado Libre Marketplace (E-commerce): The e-commerce market in Latin America was valued at USD 1.61 trillion in 2025 and is estimated to reach USD 1.78 trillion in 2026. It is projected to grow to USD 4.06 trillion by 2034. Other estimates suggest the Latin American e-commerce transaction volume is expected to surpass USD 760 billion in 2026.
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Mercado Pago FinTech (Financial Technology Solutions, Online Payments, Money Transfers): The Latin America fintech market size was valued at USD 15.23 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 54.01 billion by 2034. Another source indicates the Latin America fintech market was valued at USD 71.36 billion in 2024, projected to reach USD 76.01 billion in 2025, and is expected to expand to USD 125.88 billion by 2033.
Specifically for payments, the Latin American payments market size was valued at USD 715.28 billion in 2024, is expected to reach USD 787.74 billion in 2025, and USD 1,704.62 billion by 2033. Latin America's digital payments market is projected to reach USD 0.3 trillion by 2027. - Mercado Credito (Digital Lending): The digital lending platform market in Latin America generated a revenue of USD 1,163.6 million in 2024 and is expected to reach a projected revenue of US$ 5,014.9 million by 2030.
- Mercado Envios (Logistics Solutions): The Latin America logistics market size reached USD 347.7 billion in 2024. It is projected to grow to USD 577.5 billion by 2033, registering a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.3% from 2025. Another report estimated the market to be USD 360 billion in 2024, with a projected growth to US$ 527.5 billion by 2030.
- Mercado Libre Classifieds (Online Classified Listing Service): The online classified ad platform market size reached $38.62 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to $43.8 billion in 2026, with an expected increase to $71.54 billion in 2030. The global online classified market was valued at USD 35.8 billion in 2024 and is poised to grow to USD 38.95 billion in 2025 and USD 76.48 billion by 2033.
- Mercado Libre Ads (Advertising Platform): The Latin America digital advertising market size reached USD 43,509.7 million in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 166,224.6 million by 2034. Other data suggests the digital ad spend market in Latin America is expected to reach US$50.1 billion by 2026.
- Mercado Shops (Online Storefronts Solution): The e-commerce platform market in Latin America generated a revenue of USD 193.1 million in 2024. This market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 19.5% from 2025 to 2033, reaching a projected revenue of US$ 887.2 million by 2033.
- Mercado Fondo (Investment Funds): Null
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MercadoLibre (MELI) is poised for continued revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several key strategic initiatives and market dynamics in Latin America. The company's multifaceted approach focuses on enhancing its core e-commerce platform, expanding its financial technology services, strengthening its logistics capabilities, growing its advertising business, and leveraging strategic technology investments.
Here are 5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for MercadoLibre:
- Expansion of Fintech Services (Mercado Pago), particularly Credit and Digital Banking: Mercado Pago is anticipated to become an even more significant strategic driver, with substantial expansion in payment operations, asset management, and especially its credit business. The credit portfolio has shown robust growth, with a notable increase of 90% year-over-year in Q4 2025, reaching $12.5 billion. Mercado Pago is actively evolving into a comprehensive digital bank, aiming to become the largest in Latin America by fostering primary financial relationships with its users. This includes a growing credit card origination, which is already the preferred payment method in Mexico.
- Continued E-commerce Marketplace Growth and Market Share Gains in Latin America: MercadoLibre is projected to sustain a revenue growth rate of 20% to 25% over the next three years, capitalizing on steady e-commerce penetration in key markets like Brazil and Mexico. The company is focused on increasing its market dominance by investing in the widest possible product assortment and continuously improving the value proposition for both buyers and sellers on its platform. This includes the accelerated growth of its first-party business, particularly in Brazil, which saw an 81% increase in 2023. Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) continues to expand significantly, rising 37% year-over-year in Q4 2025.
- Expansion and Optimization of the Logistics Network (Mercado Envios): Significant investments in MercadoLibre's logistics infrastructure are a crucial driver. The company is continuously expanding its network with a focus on increasing fulfillment penetration, which was nearly 50% in Q4 2023, leading to faster shipping and fewer delivery delays. In 2024, MercadoLibre opened ten new fulfillment centers and expanded its free shipping program, which has successfully boosted transaction volumes and customer engagement. These strategic investments in logistics hubs and infrastructure are designed to strengthen its competitive advantage.
- Growth of the Advertising Business (Mercado Libre Ads): The advertising platform, Mercado Libre Ads, is consistently delivering impressive and accelerating revenue growth. In 2023, nearly 50,000 new advertisers were onboarded, recognizing the value of promoting products on the platform. The advertising business is further fueled by AI-powered bidding algorithms, which contributed to a 67% growth. Advertising revenue also increased 41% year-over-year (88% FX-neutral) in 4Q24.
- Strategic Investments in Technology (particularly AI) and Infrastructure: MercadoLibre is making substantial capital allocations and investments in technology and infrastructure across its key Latin American markets. These investments include accelerating the use of AI, which supports long-term growth by enhancing credit underwriting and personalized financial advisory, and improving operational efficiency through tools like a conversational AI assistant that handles a significant portion of Mercado Pago's customer interactions. While these investments may lead to short-term margin compression, they are strategic moves aimed at capturing long-term market share and reinforcing the company's ecosystem.
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Share Repurchases
- MercadoLibre authorized a share repurchase program of up to $350 million between September 2020 and August 2021.
- In August 2021, the company announced a new equity buyback program to repurchase up to $150 million worth of its shares, valid until August 2022.
- MercadoLibre executed significant share repurchases, with approximately $601.54 million in 2021 and an estimated $743.77 million in the first three quarters of 2023.
Outbound Investments
- MercadoLibre acquired Redelcom, a company specializing in hardware-based POS terminals, in December 2021.
- The company made substantial strategic investments in its Mercado Pago fintech segment, resulting in its credit portfolio growing by 90% to $12.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025.
- MercadoLibre is strategically investing in logistics infrastructure, technology, and free shipping initiatives across its key markets in Latin America, including a partnership with Agility Robotics to deploy humanoid robots in warehouse operations in December 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- MercadoLibre's capital expenditures have shown an upward trend, with $573 million in 2021, $509 million in 2023, and $860 million in 2024.
- The company's capital expenditures for the latest twelve months, as of September 2025, totaled $1.221 billion.
- MercadoLibre anticipates continued significant capital expenditures, with forecasts of $1.575 billion for 2025 and $1.798 billion for 2026, primarily focused on enhancing logistics, technology, fulfillment capabilities, user experience, and expanding free shipping initiatives.
Peer Outperformance in Broadline Retail
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education Services | 14 | -18.3% | 85.7% | 72.1% | LINC 309% · PRDO 234% · CVSA 234% |
| Homebuilding | 18 | -16.4% | 21.4% | 38.7% | GRBK 196% · PHM 159% · TOL 132% |
| Specialty Stores | 7 | 9.6% | 40.2% | 15.1% | SIG 39% · FIVE 31% · ASO 26% |
| Automotive Retail | 18 | -13.9% | 7.2% | 8.4% | MUSA 263% · PAG 173% · ORLY 117% |
| Home Improvement Retail | 5 | -26.3% | -9.3% | 5.6% | HVT 12% · LOW 6% · HD 6% |
| Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines | 22 | 11.2% | 44.9% | 4.7% | RCL 228% · MAR 157% · HLT 144% |
| Distributors | 4 | -13.2% | -23.6% | -7.4% | ARMK 163% · GPC 30% · LKQ -45% |
| Specialized Consumer Services | 10 | -17.3% | 26.9% | -14.3% | HRB 115% · FTDR 79% · SCI 43% |
| Home Furnishings | 4 | -9.7% | 21.9% | -14.8% | SGI 49% · LZB 3% · MHK -32% |
| Restaurants | 34 | -8.9% | -16.3% | -16.8% | EAT 314% · CAKE 160% · RAVE 128% |
| Footwear | 9 | 38.9% | 44.3% | -21.9% | WEYS 168% · SHOO 22% · DECK 17% |
| Leisure Products | 13 | -24.3% | -18.6% | -33.7% | GOLF 80% · HAS 14% · BC -19% |
| Casinos & Gaming | 20 | -10.3% | -19.4% | -36.0% | MCRI 118% · RRR 65% · RSI 65% |
| Automotive Parts & Equipment | 38 | -10.5% | -7.0% | -37.8% | MOD 1575% · GTX 284% · STRT 90% |
| Leisure Facilities | 11 | -6.4% | -12.5% | -39.4% | OSW 125% · JAKK 104% · ESCA 14% |
| Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods | 27 | -10.3% | 8.6% | -39.9% | RL 233% · TPR 233% · ELA 232% |
| Apparel Retail | 25 | -11.9% | 11.3% | -40.3% | ANF 311% · URBN 151% · ROST 116% |
| Household Appliances | 18 | -0.9% | 23.3% | -44.4% | FLXS 169% · KEQU 165% · HBB 114% |
| Broadline Retail ← | 15 | -15.3% | 15.1% | -54.5% | DDS 333% · EBAY 62% · AMZN 48% |
| Computer & Electronics Retail | 3 | -14.9% | 22.8% | -55.6% | BBY 3% · GME -56% · UPBD -59% |
| Automobile Manufacturers | 8 | -78.8% | -49.5% | -71.9% | GM 80% · F 50% · TSLA 49% |
| Other Specialty Retail | 18 | -34.3% | -52.3% | -78.3% | TLF 109% · BBW 94% · WINA 76% |
| Consumer Electronics | 11 | -13.7% | -7.2% | -78.4% | AXIL 2464% · GRMN 82% · TBCH -55% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| MercadoLibre Stock Delivers Strong Cash Yield - Upside Ahead? | 08/12/2026 | |
| The Real Risk Inside MercadoLibre Stock | 07/11/2026 | |
| Why MELI Beats A Bond At Its Own Game | 07/07/2026 | |
| MercadoLibre Stock at Support Zone - Bargain or Trap? | 07/02/2026 | |
| MercadoLibre Earnings Notes | 05/06/2026 | |
| Stress Testing MELI: Historical Drawdowns and Macro Risks | 03/16/2026 | |
| MELI Stock Falls -14% In 8-day Spree On Negative Analyst Revisions | 02/07/2026 | |
| How Low Can MercadoLibre Stock Really Go? | 10/17/2025 | |
| Where Does MercadoLibre Stock Rank Among Competitors? | 10/16/2025 | |
| Time To Buy MercadoLibre Stock? | 10/04/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| The Market Is Paying You To Own MELI. Why? | 08/12/2026 | |
| A 7-Day Winning Streak Has MercadoLibre Stock Up 12% | 07/08/2026 | |
| MercadoLibre Stock at Support Zone – Bargain or Trap? | 07/02/2026 | |
| How Will MercadoLibre Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings? | 05/06/2026 | |
| Is MercadoLibre a Better Buy Than Amazon.com? | 04/28/2026 |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 118.27 |
| Mkt Cap | 72.1 |
| Rev LTM | 34,655 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,686 |
| FCF LTM | 2,390 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 4,006 |
| CFO LTM | 5,256 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 4,618 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 15.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 15.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 17.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 6.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 14.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 14.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 21.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 18.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 72.1 |
| P/S | 3.1 |
| P/Op Inc | 24.5 |
| P/EBIT | 16.5 |
| P/E | 21.0 |
| P/CFO | 16.5 |
| Total Yield | 3.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -5.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 13.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 16.1% |
| 12M Rtn | -15.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 58.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 7.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 1.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -30.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -10.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commerce services | 12,750 | 10,076 | 6,754 | 4,764 | |
| Financial services and income | 6,678 | 4,962 | 4,317 | 2,888 | |
| Credit revenues | 5,858 | 3,600 | 2,546 | 2,033 | |
| Commerce products sales | 3,544 | 2,083 | 1,447 | 1,044 | |
| Fintech products sales | 63 | 56 | 43 | 51 | |
| Commerce revenues | 4,635 | ||||
| Fintech revenues | 2,434 | ||||
| Total | 28,893 | 20,777 | 15,107 | 10,780 | 7,069 |
| $ Mil | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 110 | 69 | 56 | 33 | 20 |
| Brazil | 110 | 115 | 87 | 69 | 49 |
| Other Countries | 11 | 16 | 14 | 9 | 6 |
| Mexico | 9 | 14 | 14 | 10 | 7 |
| Venezuela | 9 | -8 | 55 | 22 | 11 |
| Corporate | -110 | -86 | -73 | ||
| Unallocated | -43 | -20 | |||
| Total | 139 | 120 | 154 | 100 | 75 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $1,897.37 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 96.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 08/10/2007 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -24.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $1,883.67 | $1,859.66 |
| DMA Trend | down | up |
| Distance from DMA | 0.7% | 2.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 36.2% | 41.3% |
| Downside Capture | -39.27 | 100.11 |
| Upside Capture | 53.99 | 56.88 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 12.0% | 32.9% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.12 | 0.20 | 0.54 | 0.93 | 1.09 | 0.93 |
| Up Beta | -0.01 | -0.01 | 0.83 | 1.36 | 1.26 | 1.09 |
| Down Beta | 0.22 | 0.53 | 1.36 | 1.50 | 1.69 | 0.81 |
| Up Capture | 5% | 56% | 39% | 53% | 43% | 66% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 36 | 70 | 127 | 390 |
| Down Capture | -76% | -33% | -26% | 56% | 103% | 98% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 18 | 28 | 57 | 124 | 360 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MELI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MELI | -19.3% | 41.2% | -0.41 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | -2.4% | 19.5% | -0.25 | 38.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 18.3% | 12.8% | 1.03 | 32.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.0% | 29.2% | 0.59 | 11.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 50.4% | 20.6% | 1.88 | -11.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 7.6% | 13.6% | 0.29 | 10.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -32.6% | 43.8% | -0.78 | 20.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MELI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MELI | -0.6% | 49.5% | 0.16 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 5.1% | 24.1% | 0.17 | 56.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.5% | 17.2% | 0.55 | 54.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.7% | 18.8% | 0.81 | 6.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.7% | 19.5% | 0.47 | 5.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.7% | 18.9% | -0.07 | 37.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 9.3% | 52.6% | 0.36 | 29.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MELI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MELI | 27.0% | 48.8% | 0.68 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.0% | 22.2% | 0.49 | 54.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 52.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.3% | 16.3% | 0.62 | 7.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.9% | 18.1% | 0.40 | 13.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.7% | 20.7% | 0.19 | 33.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.2% | 66.2% | 1.03 | 17.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/10/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/5/2026 | -4.8% | -4.9% | 3.6% |
| 5/7/2026 | -12.7% | -14.0% | -13.8% |
| 2/24/2026 | -8.1% | -10.8% | -14.7% |
| 10/29/2025 | 2.8% | 0.3% | -10.1% |
| 8/4/2025 | 0.5% | -4.3% | -0.9% |
| 5/7/2025 | 6.5% | 13.3% | 9.7% |
| 2/20/2025 | 7.1% | 0.9% | -0.7% |
| 11/6/2024 | -16.2% | -8.8% | -8.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 16 | 14 | 11 |
| # Negative | 8 | 10 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 6.8% | 10.0% | 17.8% |
| Median Negative | -6.8% | -11.5% | -12.0% |
| Max Positive | 16.2% | 26.7% | 36.6% |
| Max Negative | -16.2% | -20.8% | -28.5% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/5/2026 | -4.8% | -4.9% | 3.6% |
| 5/7/2026 | -12.7% | -14.0% | -13.8% |
| 2/24/2026 | -8.1% | -10.8% | -14.7% |
| 10/29/2025 | 2.8% | 0.3% | -10.1% |
| 8/4/2025 | 0.5% | -4.3% | -0.9% |
| 5/7/2025 | 6.5% | 13.3% | 9.7% |
| 2/20/2025 | 7.1% | 0.9% | -0.7% |
| 11/6/2024 | -16.2% | -8.8% | -8.0% |
| 8/1/2024 | 10.6% | 16.4% | 28.4% |
| 5/2/2024 | 8.3% | 12.6% | 12.4% |
| 2/22/2024 | -10.4% | -12.2% | -13.5% |
| 11/1/2023 | 1.5% | 5.2% | 27.1% |
| 8/2/2023 | 13.6% | 12.7% | 17.8% |
| 5/3/2023 | -5.2% | 0.7% | -0.7% |
| 2/23/2023 | 1.8% | 7.2% | 4.5% |
| 11/3/2022 | 7.8% | 7.4% | 1.3% |
| 8/3/2022 | 16.2% | 19.5% | -3.6% |
| 5/5/2022 | 1.6% | -20.8% | -12.0% |
| 2/22/2022 | 3.7% | 26.7% | 36.6% |
| 11/4/2021 | 4.7% | 1.3% | -28.5% |
| 8/4/2021 | 13.8% | 20.2% | 23.0% |
| 5/5/2021 | -5.5% | -14.9% | -13.4% |
| 3/1/2021 | -4.1% | -20.1% | -16.6% |
| 11/4/2020 | 9.3% | -0.9% | 18.4% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 16 | 14 | 11 |
| # Negative | 8 | 10 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 6.8% | 10.0% | 17.8% |
| Median Negative | -6.8% | -11.5% | -12.0% |
| Max Positive | 16.2% | 26.7% | 36.6% |
| Max Negative | -16.2% | -20.8% | -28.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/08/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/23/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/08/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/23/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/06/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/23/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/06/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/01/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/10/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/14/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/01/2019 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Updated 6/15/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melamud, Marcelo | SVP - Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Buy | 6152026 | 1604.62 | 125 | 200,000 | 379,717 | Form |
| 2 | Aguzin, Alejandro Nicolas | Direct | Buy | 5262026 | 1655.93 | 600 | 993,556 | 8,867,491 | Form | |
| 3 | Melamud, Marcelo | SVP - Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Buy | 3022026 | 1755.77 | 57 | 100,079 | 196,646 | Form |
| 4 | Dubugras, Henrique Vasoncelos | TDB Capital LLC | Sell | 12152025 | 2028.14 | 845 | Form | |||
| 5 | Calemzuk, Emiliano | Direct | Sell | 12122025 | 2027.37 | 45 | 91,232 | 521,034 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melamud, Marcelo | SVP - Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Buy | 6152026 | 1604.62 | 125 | 200,000 | 379,717 | Form |
| 2 | Aguzin, Alejandro Nicolas | Direct | Buy | 5262026 | 1655.93 | 600 | 993,556 | 8,867,491 | Form | |
| 3 | Melamud, Marcelo | SVP - Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Buy | 3022026 | 1755.77 | 57 | 100,079 | 196,646 | Form |
| 4 | Dubugras, Henrique Vasoncelos | TDB Capital LLC | Sell | 12152025 | 2028.14 | 845 | Form | |||
| 5 | Calemzuk, Emiliano | Direct | Sell | 12122025 | 2027.37 | 45 | 91,232 | 521,034 | Form | |
| 6 | Tolda, Stelleo | Didomi Fund | Sell | 12112025 | 2047.88 | 246 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Sep 12, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dynamo Internacional Gestao de Recursos Ltda. | $161.1 Mil | 60.5% | 3 | ADD +73.7% | 13F |
| Squadra Investments - Gestao de Recursos Ltda. | $350.9 Mil | 39.2% | 6 | ADD +126.3% | 13F |
| Northcape Capital Pty Ltd | $212.0 Mil | 24.5% | 8 | Hold | 13F |
| Nellore Capital Management LLC | $124.4 Mil | 15.9% | 11 | ADD +11.6% | 13F |
| Foxhaven Asset Management, LP | $482.3 Mil | 15.1% | 14 | Hold | 13F |
| Coronation Fund Managers Ltd. | $272.8 Mil | 12.4% | 82 | ADD +11.3% | 13F |
| Ancient Art, L.P. | $55.2 Mil | 12.0% | 16 | New | 13F |
| 3G Capital Partners LP | $30.3 Mil | 10.7% | 10 | TRIM -30.0% | 13F |
| Fourth Sail Capital LP | $57.0 Mil | 9.4% | 25 | New | 13F |
| Atmos Capital Gestao de Recursos Ltda. | $53.9 Mil | 9.3% | 15 | TRIM -58.7% | 13F |
| Gavilan Investment Partners LLC | $33.7 Mil | 9.1% | 14 | Hold | 13F |
| Untitled Investments LP | $20.3 Mil | 7.6% | 16 | TRIM -26.9% | 13F |
| PBCay One RSC Ltd | $66.9 Mil | 7.2% | 17 | ADD +136.9% | 13F |
| Spear Holdings RSC Ltd | $66.9 Mil | 7.2% | 17 | ADD +136.9% | 13F |
| Generation Investment Management LLP | $791.2 Mil | 7.1% | 29 | Hold | 13F |
| Durable Capital Partners LP | $606.6 Mil | 6.2% | 37 | ADD +13.9% | 13F |
| D1 Capital Partners L.P. | $646.1 Mil | 5.8% | 44 | ADD +66.5% | 13F |
| Kora Management LP | $36.8 Mil | 5.2% | 9 | Hold | 13F |
| MayTech Global Investments, LLC | $42.0 Mil | 5.1% | 23 | Hold | 13F |
| Matthew 25 Management Corp | $14.8 Mil | 4.9% | 20 | ADD +12.1% | 13F |
| Bender Robert & Associates | $20.1 Mil | 4.8% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Warther Private Wealth, LLC | $19.9 Mil | 4.7% | 40 | ADD +17.7% | 13F |
| Generali Powszechne Towarzystwo Emerytalne | $26.1 Mil | 4.6% | 28 | Hold | 13F |
| INCA Investments LLC | $12.9 Mil | 4.6% | 10 | Hold | 13F |
| Ashoka WhiteOak Capital Pte Ltd | $11.4 Mil | 4.3% | 18 | ADD +31.5% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linonia Partnership LP | $225.2 Mil | 4.2% | 14 | New | 13F |
| Route One Investment Company, L.P. | $77.4 Mil | 3.4% | 18 | New | 13F |
| Fourth Sail Capital LP | $57.0 Mil | 9.4% | 25 | New | 13F |
| Ancient Art, L.P. | $55.2 Mil | 12.0% | 16 | New | 13F |
| Soma Equity Partners LP | $53.8 Mil | 4.0% | 20 | New | 13F |
| Weitz Investment Management, Inc. | $13.8 Mil | 1.0% | 49 | New | 13F |
| Ribbit Management Company, LLC | $59.0 Mil | 3.5% | 16 | ADD +198.9% | 13F |
| Spear Holdings RSC Ltd | $66.9 Mil | 7.2% | 17 | ADD +136.9% | 13F |
| PBCay One RSC Ltd | $66.9 Mil | 7.2% | 17 | ADD +136.9% | 13F |
| Squadra Investments - Gestao de Recursos Ltda. | $350.9 Mil | 39.2% | 6 | ADD +126.3% | 13F |
| CTC LLC | $26.8 Mil | 2.1% | 25 | ADD +90.1% | 13F |
| Dynamo Internacional Gestao de Recursos Ltda. | $161.1 Mil | 60.5% | 3 | ADD +73.7% | 13F |
| D1 Capital Partners L.P. | $646.1 Mil | 5.8% | 44 | ADD +66.5% | 13F |
| Ashoka WhiteOak Capital Pte Ltd | $11.4 Mil | 4.3% | 18 | ADD +31.5% | 13F |
| Gemsstock Ltd. | $18.7 Mil | 2.0% | 28 | ADD +27.4% | 13F |
| Lingotto Investment Management LLP | $41.6 Mil | 0.8% | 34 | ADD +19.3% | 13F |
| Central Securities Corp | $26.8 Mil | 2.2% | 30 | ADD +19.2% | 13F |
| Warther Private Wealth, LLC | $19.9 Mil | 4.7% | 40 | ADD +17.7% | 13F |
| Durable Capital Partners LP | $606.6 Mil | 6.2% | 37 | ADD +13.9% | 13F |
| Matthew 25 Management Corp | $14.8 Mil | 4.9% | 20 | ADD +12.1% | 13F |
| Nellore Capital Management LLC | $124.4 Mil | 15.9% | 11 | ADD +11.6% | 13F |
| Coronation Fund Managers Ltd. | $272.8 Mil | 12.4% | 82 | ADD +11.3% | 13F |
| Alta Park Capital, LP | $14.8 Mil | 2.4% | 24 | ADD +11.0% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dragoneer Investment Group, LLC | $322.7 Mil | 7.0% | 27 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Whale Rock Capital Management LLC | $197.7 Mil | 2.5% | 32 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Altimeter Capital Management, LP | $137.9 Mil | 2.1% | 18 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| RWC Asset Advisors (US) LLC | $49.6 Mil | 9.4% | 13 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Heirloom Wealth Management | $12.7 Mil | 2.9% | 43 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Aragon Global Management, LP | $7.4 Mil | 2.2% | 32 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Atmos Capital Gestao de Recursos Ltda. | $53.9 Mil | 9.3% | 15 | TRIM -58.7% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Crosslink Capital Inc | $23.9 Mil | 2.3% | 21 | TRIM -50.5% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| 3G Capital Partners LP | $30.3 Mil | 10.7% | 10 | TRIM -30.0% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Untitled Investments LP | $20.3 Mil | 7.6% | 16 | TRIM -26.9% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| ThornTree Capital Partners LP | $18.4 Mil | 3.3% | 16 | TRIM -23.0% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Proem Advisors LLC | $9.2 Mil | 3.0% | 29 | TRIM -18.5% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Generation Investment Management LLP | $791.2 Mil | 7.1% | 29 | Hold | 13F |
| D1 Capital Partners L.P. | $646.1 Mil | 5.8% | 44 | ADD +66.5% | 13F |
| Durable Capital Partners LP | $606.6 Mil | 6.2% | 37 | ADD +13.9% | 13F |
| Foxhaven Asset Management, LP | $482.3 Mil | 15.1% | 14 | Hold | 13F |
| Squadra Investments - Gestao de Recursos Ltda. | $350.9 Mil | 39.2% | 6 | ADD +126.3% | 13F |
| Coronation Fund Managers Ltd. | $272.8 Mil | 12.4% | 82 | ADD +11.3% | 13F |
| Linonia Partnership LP | $225.2 Mil | 4.2% | 14 | New | 13F |
| Northcape Capital Pty Ltd | $212.0 Mil | 24.5% | 8 | Hold | 13F |
| Dynamo Internacional Gestao de Recursos Ltda. | $161.1 Mil | 60.5% | 3 | ADD +73.7% | 13F |
| Nellore Capital Management LLC | $124.4 Mil | 15.9% | 11 | ADD +11.6% | 13F |
| Route One Investment Company, L.P. | $77.4 Mil | 3.4% | 18 | New | 13F |
| PBCay One RSC Ltd | $66.9 Mil | 7.2% | 17 | ADD +136.9% | 13F |
| Spear Holdings RSC Ltd | $66.9 Mil | 7.2% | 17 | ADD +136.9% | 13F |
| Ribbit Management Company, LLC | $59.0 Mil | 3.5% | 16 | ADD +198.9% | 13F |
| Fourth Sail Capital LP | $57.0 Mil | 9.4% | 25 | New | 13F |
| Ancient Art, L.P. | $55.2 Mil | 12.0% | 16 | New | 13F |
| Atmos Capital Gestao de Recursos Ltda. | $53.9 Mil | 9.3% | 15 | TRIM -58.7% | 13F |
| Soma Equity Partners LP | $53.8 Mil | 4.0% | 20 | New | 13F |
| MayTech Global Investments, LLC | $42.0 Mil | 5.1% | 23 | Hold | 13F |
| Lingotto Investment Management LLP | $41.6 Mil | 0.8% | 34 | ADD +19.3% | 13F |
| Kora Management LP | $36.8 Mil | 5.2% | 9 | Hold | 13F |
| Gavilan Investment Partners LLC | $33.7 Mil | 9.1% | 14 | Hold | 13F |
| Think Investments LP | $31.6 Mil | 4.3% | 30 | Hold | 13F |
| 3G Capital Partners LP | $30.3 Mil | 10.7% | 10 | TRIM -30.0% | 13F |
| CTC LLC | $26.8 Mil | 2.1% | 25 | ADD +90.1% | 13F |
MELI Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
MercadoLibre is successfully trading near-term profit for accelerating market share, with revenue growth hitting 49.8%. The strategy is driving deep user engagement, evidenced by a 1.1 percentage point conversion increase in Brazil. Conviction is tempered by sustained margin pressure, awaiting proof this investment cycle creates superior long-term profitability.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Transactional EcosystemRevenue = (GMV * Commerce Take-Rate) + (TPV * Fintech Take-Rate) + (Loan Portfolio * Net Interest Margin) Scaling the high-margin credit business and achieving operating leverage in logistics and technology as transaction volumes grow.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests yes; strategic spending is accelerating revenue to 49.8% YoY and deepening user engagement, creating a powerful, profitable flywheel.
- Latest-quarter revenue growth accelerated to 49.8% year-over-year.
- Total Payment Volume grew 56% year-over-year in Q2 2026.
- Gross Merchandise Volume grew 44% year-over-year in Q2 2026.
- User conversion in Brazil increased 1.1 percentage points year-over-year.
- The credit portfolio grew 75% year-over-year in Q2 2026.
PRIMARY RISK
Intensifying competition from global and Asian platforms may force a permanent state of high investment. This has already driven quarterly operating margin down to 6.7%, a 550 basis point YoY decline, suggesting the company is buying growth at an unsustainable cost.
- Q2 operating margin was 6.7%, down from 12.3% in the prior year period.
- Trailing-twelve-month operating margin is 8.3%, down from 12.3% a year earlier.
- Inventory grew 89.4% YoY, far outpacing 49.8% revenue growth.
- Competition has intensified from 'rapidly expanding Asian e-commerce platforms'.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) | 21,926 million for the three months ended June 30, 2026 - Accelerating | Growth is driven by strategic investments, particularly the decision to lower the free shipping threshold in Brazil. This initiative has led to a sustained increase in user engagement, with conversion in Brazil up 1.1 percentage points year-over-year. While a multi-quarter trend for consolidated GMV growth is not explicitly stated, overall company revenue growth has accelerated for three consecutive quarters. |
| Total Payment Volume (TPV) | $100,952 million for the three months ended June 30, 2026 - Accelerating | The strong growth in payment volume is fueled by the rapid expansion of the company's credit business, with the credit portfolio growing 75% year-over-year in Q2. This indicates deepening engagement within the fintech ecosystem beyond just processing marketplace transactions. |
| Fintech monthly active users | 88 million (As of June 30, 2026) | The number of unique users engaging with the fintech platform, reflecting the reach and adoption of Mercado Pago's services. |
| Net Interest Margin After Losses (NIMAL) | 20.7% (Three months ended June 30, 2026) | A measure of the profitability of the credit portfolio after accounting for losses, indicating the health and risk-adjusted return of the lending business. |
Strategic Investment Cycle vs. Competitive Margin Erosion
BULL VIEW
This is a deliberate, temporary investment phase to capture a massive, underpenetrated market. Accelerating growth and rising user conversion prove the strategy is creating a long-term, defensible moat that will yield significant future profits.
CORE TENSION
Can accelerating revenue at 49.8% YoY offset the 6.7% operating margin, a trade-off the market punished with a -3.0% post-earnings stock move?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest data favors the bull view. A 1.1 percentage point step-change in Brazil's conversion rate shows investments are directly boosting engagement and market share.
BEAR VIEW
New, well-funded competitors are forcing a value-destructive arms race. The 550 basis point drop in quarterly operating margin is not a choice but a structural reality of a more competitive market, with no clear path back to prior profitability.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
October 2026 | Brazil Fintech Regulation Impact Watch: Company commentary on the impact of the new eFX rules on its fintech operations, particularly cross-border transactions and stablecoin strategy. |
October 2026 | Brazil eFX Rules Effective Watch: New Brazilian Central Bank (BACEN) rules refining the scope of permitted international payment and transfer services (eFX) become effective. |
10/28/2026 | Peer Results Set High Bar Watch: Amazon's reported e-commerce margins, cost-to-serve commentary, and growth rates in international markets. |
11/4/2026 | Negative Earnings Reaction Watch: Operating margin figure versus the 6.7% reported in Q2 and 6.9% in Q1. Any change in tone regarding the investment cycle. |
11/4/2026 | Company Earnings Report Watch: MercadoLibre is scheduled to report its next quarterly earnings. |
No set date | Rising Legal And Scrutiny Headwinds Watch: Any official filing of a class-action lawsuit, or any disclosure from the company regarding these investigations in its next 10-Q. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-09-10 | Company Issues New Long-Term Debt Details: Mercado Libre announced the successful issuance of $1,000 million in senior unsecured notes due in 2036, stating the proceeds would be used for general corporate purposes (ART-1). | +1.6% $1876.33 -> $1906.24 |
2026-08-05 | Q2 Earnings Show Continued Growth Details: The company reported Q2 revenue surpassed $10 billion for the first time, growing 50% YoY. Operating margin was 6.7% (ART-3, T-1). The stock had a two-day reaction of -3.0% (MKT-1). | -3.1% $1888.50 -> $1830.00 |
2026-06-30 | Securities Fraud Investigations Announced Details: Following the Q1 earnings report and subsequent stock drop, multiple law firms announced investigations into the company for possible violations of federal securities laws (REWIND-1, ART-8). | +3.5% $1683.13 -> $1742.19 |
2026-05-07 | Q1 Earnings Report Misses Expectations Details: The company reported Q1 revenue of $8.8 billion, up 49% YoY, but operating margin compressed to 6.9% (REWIND-1). The stock reacted negatively, falling -11.0% over two days (MKT-1). | -11.3% $1841.14 -> $1632.52 |
2026-03-10 | Margin Pressure Narrative Solidifies Details: Press reports in March highlighted the company's "deliberate margin-sacrificing growth strategy," noting that aggressive investments in credit, 1P products, and logistics had reduced margins by 5-6 points (REWIND-1). | -0.2% $1769.52 -> $1766.10 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: MELI trades at roughly 37% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 13% for the S&P 500 (2.7x the market), around the 33rd percentile of its own trailing year. A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
AMZN - Amazon.com
Global Scale & DiversificationAmazon offers exposure to global e-commerce and highly profitable cloud computing, with superior operating margins of 12.1% and a massive capital expenditure budget of $173 billion.
PYPL - a business partner
Pure-Play Fintech Exposurea business partner provides pure-play exposure to the global digital payments trend with a more mature, asset-light model, reflected in its higher 18.4% operating margin.
MercadoLibre is a compounding ecosystem where investments in commerce (e.g., cheaper shipping) create highly profitable, deeply engaged 'ecosystemic' fintech users, justifying near-term margin compression for long-term dominance.
The company operates a powerful flywheel between its commerce and fintech platforms. Strategic investments to reduce friction and increase value in one business, like lowering shipping thresholds in the marketplace, directly fuel engagement and create more valuable users in the other. Management explicitly prioritizes long-term engagement and scale over near-term profitability, believing that 'ecosystemic users' who use both platforms are 'dramatically more profitable' and will drive superior long-term value.
Sustained high growth in GMV and TPV, accelerating growth of 'ecosystemic users', and improving unit economics (e.g., lower shipping costs per package) despite high investment levels.
A sustained deceleration in user growth or engagement metrics despite continued high investment, or a significant increase in credit portfolio NPLs that pressures NIMAL and overall profitability.
Short-term quarterly margin fluctuations, which management has stated are a result of deliberate investment choices and not indicative of the long-term earnings power of the business.
Repricing Catalyst
Evidence that the company's strategic investments are successfully driving market share gains and creating a structural advantage, as seen in the acceleration of items sold and buyer conversion in Brazil following the reduction of the free shipping threshold.
MercadoLibre — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Broadline Retail Resources |
| Chain Store Age |
| RetailWire |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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