Tearsheet

MercadoLibre (MELI)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $1930.6899 | Market Cap: $97.9 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Broadline Retail

MercadoLibre (MELI)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $1930.6899
Market Cap: $97.9 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Broadline Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -24%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 4.5x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 40x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 57x
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, CFO LTM is 9.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 8.6 Bil
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.4%
2 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 7.3%
  Key risks
MELI key risks include [1] intensifying competition across its e-commerce and fintech segments from aggressive global and regional rivals, Show more.
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 38%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Fintech & Digital Payments, Automation & Robotics, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Show more.
  
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, CFO LTM is 9.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 8.6 Bil
2 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 7.3%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 38%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Fintech & Digital Payments, Automation & Robotics, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Show more.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -24%
6 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 4.5x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 40x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 57x
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.4%
8 Key risks
MELI key risks include [1] intensifying competition across its e-commerce and fintech segments from aggressive global and regional rivals, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MELI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

MercadoLibre (MELI) experienced a significant decline of approximately 22.5% in its stock price between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025. This downturn can be attributed to several key factors, primarily related to mixed earnings results and broader market concerns.

1. Q3 2025 Earnings Miss on EPS: On October 29, 2025, MercadoLibre reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results, which presented a mixed picture for investors. While revenue of $7.41 billion surpassed analyst estimates of $7.36 billion, the non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $8.32 fell short of the consensus estimate of $9.52. This earnings miss, approximately 12.6% below expectations, appears to have driven a negative reaction in the market, with shares declining approximately 1.3% immediately after the announcement.

2. Margin Pressures and Increased Investments: The Q3 2025 earnings call highlighted ongoing operating leverage despite heavy investment and short-term cost pressures. Factors contributing to margin contraction included increased investments in credit and logistics businesses. Earlier in October, it was noted that a reduction in Brazil's free shipping threshold from BRL79 to BRL19, implemented in June 2025, likely continued to erode margins due to higher fulfillment and subsidy costs, despite leading to an increase in gross merchandise volume.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MELI Return193%-20%-37%86%8%14%238%
Peers Return-55%42%40%13%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MELI Win Rate75%50%42%50%33%50% 
Peers Win Rate52%30%63%58%55% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MELI Max Drawdown-22%-37%-55%-2%-14%0% 
Peers Max Drawdown-62%-10%-14%-20% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AMZN, PYPL, CPNG, EBAY, SHOP. See MELI Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMELIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-69.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven223.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven791 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-39.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven66.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven35 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-37.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven60.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven65 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-89.5%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven851.8%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven860 days1,480 days

Compare to AMZN, WMT, COST, EBAY, ETSY


In The Past

MercadoLibre's stock fell -69.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/20/2021. A -69.1% loss requires a 223.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About MercadoLibre (MELI)

Better Bets than MercadoLibre (MELI)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MELI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
12.8%12.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.4%5.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.5%15.5%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.3%15.3%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
12.8%12.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.4%5.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.5%15.5%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.3%15.3%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for MercadoLibre

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MELIAMZNPYPLCPNGEBAYSHOPMedian
NameMercadoL.Amazon.c.PayPal Coupang eBay Shopify  
Mkt Price1,916.28221.2760.1822.7282.71161.73122.22
Mkt Cap97.22,353.657.241.438.1210.377.2
Rev LTM26,193670,03832,86233,66410,47010,69629,528
Op Inc LTM3,13276,1906,2967772,2381,6812,685
FCF LTM8,61013,4815,5651,2621,4091,9033,734
FCF 3Y Avg6,37021,6775,2651,3411,7621,2953,514
CFO LTM9,831121,1376,4262,3671,9121,9234,396
CFO 3Y Avg7,16996,9775,9722,2702,2441,3224,121

Growth & Margins

MELIAMZNPYPLCPNGEBAYSHOPMedian
NameMercadoL.Amazon.c.PayPal Coupang eBay Shopify  
Rev Chg LTM36.9%10.9%4.5%16.6%2.7%30.2%13.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg39.5%11.3%6.7%18.4%1.5%26.8%14.8%
Rev Chg Q39.5%13.3%7.3%17.8%6.1%31.5%15.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM8.7%3.0%1.8%4.3%1.5%6.8%3.7%
Op Mgn LTM12.0%11.4%19.2%2.3%21.4%15.7%13.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg13.1%7.9%17.9%1.7%21.2%7.6%10.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.3%0.3%0.1%0.1%-1.0%0.4%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM37.5%18.1%19.6%7.0%18.3%18.0%18.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg35.9%15.8%19.0%8.2%22.1%14.9%17.4%
FCF/Rev LTM32.9%2.0%16.9%3.7%13.5%17.8%15.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg32.1%3.5%16.8%5.0%17.4%14.5%15.6%

Valuation

MELIAMZNPYPLCPNGEBAYSHOPMedian
NameMercadoL.Amazon.c.PayPal Coupang eBay Shopify  
Mkt Cap97.22,353.657.241.438.1210.377.2
P/S4.53.51.91.74.018.13.7
P/EBIT39.827.49.860.915.1114.933.6
P/E57.033.113.0150.519.2108.545.1
P/CFO12.119.39.924.821.9100.520.6
Total Yield1.8%3.0%7.7%0.7%6.5%0.9%2.4%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%1.3%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg6.7%1.1%7.5%3.4%6.0%1.1%4.7%
D/E0.10.10.20.10.20.00.1
Net D/E0.00.00.0-0.00.1-0.00.0

Returns

MELIAMZNPYPLCPNGEBAYSHOPMedian
NameMercadoL.Amazon.c.PayPal Coupang eBay Shopify  
1M Rtn-6.9%-5.0%-2.8%-18.3%1.0%15.6%-3.9%
3M Rtn-21.7%-4.5%-12.1%-32.2%-7.7%9.4%-9.9%
6M Rtn-20.2%4.1%-12.0%-20.0%7.4%52.6%-4.0%
12M Rtn5.9%-4.3%-33.6%-3.4%30.7%35.4%1.3%
3Y Rtn127.1%151.8%-12.9%40.5%113.7%348.1%120.4%
1M Excs Rtn-7.6%-5.7%-3.5%-19.0%0.3%14.8%-4.6%
3M Excs Rtn-24.0%-5.7%-13.3%-33.4%-8.7%5.0%-11.0%
6M Excs Rtn-32.6%-8.3%-24.4%-32.4%-5.0%40.2%-16.3%
12M Excs Rtn-6.0%-13.8%-44.8%-16.0%20.5%30.0%-9.9%
3Y Excs Rtn49.3%75.9%-86.7%-40.9%32.0%253.0%40.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Commerce services6,754    
Financial services and income4,317    
Credit revenues2,546    
Commerce products sales1,447    
Fintech products sales43    
Commerce revenues 5,8084,6352,5601,346
Fintech revenues 4,7292,4341,414950
Total15,10710,5377,0693,9732,296


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity703,321
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-13.9%
Average Daily Volume571,945
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.23
Basic Shares Quantity50,697,265
Short % of Basic Shares1.4%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/29/20252.8%0.3%-10.1%
8/4/20250.5%-4.3%-0.9%
5/7/20256.5%13.3%9.7%
2/20/20257.1%0.9%-0.7%
11/6/2024-16.2%-8.8%-8.0%
8/1/202410.6%16.4%28.4%
5/2/20248.3%12.6%12.4%
2/22/2024-10.4%-12.2%-13.5%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive171511
# Negative5711
Median Positive7.1%12.6%18.4%
Median Negative-5.8%-8.8%-12.0%
Max Positive19.6%26.7%36.6%
Max Negative-16.2%-20.8%-28.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024221202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024802202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024503202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023223202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022224202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221104202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022506202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021223202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Calemzuk Emiliano 12022024Sell1984.985099,249472,425Form