Shopify (SHOP)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $159.73 | Market Cap: $207.7 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Shopify (SHOP)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $159.73Market Cap: $207.7 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 115x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 100x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 108x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.2% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Show more. | Short seller report |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 115x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 100x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 108x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.2% |
| Short seller report |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SHOP Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points highlighting the movement of Shopify (SHOP) stock from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Strong Underlying Q3 2025 Financial Performance
While Shopify's stock experienced an initial dip after its Q3 2025 earnings report on November 4, 2025, the company showcased robust underlying growth. It reported revenue of $2.84 billion, a 31.5% year-over-year increase, and Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) rising 32% to $92 billion, surpassing analyst estimates despite an earnings per share (EPS) miss.
2. Record-Breaking Black Friday-Cyber Monday Sales
Shopify announced that its merchants achieved a record $14.6 billion in sales during the Black Friday-Cyber Monday weekend, as reported on December 2, 2025. This figure represented a substantial 27% increase from the previous year, demonstrating robust consumer spending and positively influencing the stock's performance.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SHOP Return | 185% | 22% | -75% | 124% | 36% | 47% | 294% |
| Peers Return | 93% | 19% | -46% | 32% | 5% | 19% | 107% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SHOP Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 25% | 67% | 50% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 32% | 60% | 48% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SHOP Max Drawdown | -19% | -8% | -81% | 0% | -33% | -28% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -19% | -13% | -56% | -15% | -25% | -17% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AMZN, SNOW, WDAY, EBAY, ETSY. See SHOP Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SHOP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -84.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 558.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1109 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -40.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 32 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -31.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 46 days | 120 days |
Compare to AMZN, SNOW, WDAY, EBAY, ETSY
In The Past
Shopify's stock fell -84.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/19/2021. A -84.8% loss requires a 558.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| AppLovin vs Shopify: Which Is the Stronger Buy Today? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Pay Less, Grow More: APP, DAVE Beat Shopify Stock | Actionable | ||
| Can AppLovin Outrun Shopify in the Next Rally? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Wait For A Dip To Buy Shopify Stock | Buy or Fear | ||
| With Shopify Stock Sliding, Have You Assessed The Risk? | Return | ||
| SHOP Soars 6.2% In A Single Day: How Does It Compare With Others? | |||
| SHOP Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Shopify Total Shareholder Return (TSR): 36.5% in 2024 and -8.3% 3-yr compounded annual returns (below peer average) | |||
| Shopify (SHOP) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Shopify (SHOP) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Can Shopify Stock Double? | December 3rd, 2025 | ||
| AppLovin vs Shopify: Which Is the Stronger Buy Today? | December 3rd, 2025 | ||
| Can AppLovin Outrun Shopify in the Next Rally? | December 3rd, 2025 | ||
| Pay Less, Gain More: APP Tops Shopify Stock | December 3rd, 2025 | ||
| AppLovin or Shopify: Which Stock Has More Upside? | November 18th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SHOP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Shopify
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 187.42 |
| Mkt Cap | 73.1 |
| Rev LTM | 9,714 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,230 |
| FCF LTM | 1,656 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,528 |
| CFO LTM | 1,918 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,783 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 12.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 13.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 19.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 17.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 73.1 |
| P/S | 5.6 |
| P/EBIT | 21.7 |
| P/E | 34.6 |
| P/CFO | 23.3 |
| Total Yield | 1.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.3% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -8.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 3.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 9.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 20.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 84.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -8.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -5.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 8.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 19.6% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2112025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2132024 | 40-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2162023 | 40-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7272022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2162022 | 40-F 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
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| FinViz |