Tearsheet

Shopify (SHOP)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $163.8 | Market Cap: $213.0 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software

Shopify (SHOP)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $163.8
Market Cap: $213.0 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Application Software

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 115x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 100x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 108x
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.2%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Show more.
Short seller report
3  Key risks
SHOP key risks include [1] its large merchant base of small businesses, Show more.
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Show more.
3 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 115x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 100x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 108x
4 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.2%
5 Short seller report
6 Key risks
SHOP key risks include [1] its large merchant base of small businesses, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

SHOP Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for why Shopify's stock (SHOP) moved by 14.5% during the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025: 1. Strong Q2 and Q3 2025 Financial Results and Optimistic Guidance. Shopify reported robust Q2 2025 earnings, surpassing revenue expectations and demonstrating substantial net income growth, which generated positive momentum leading into the specified period. Furthermore, Q3 2025 results showed a 32% year-over-year increase in both revenue and Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV). The company also provided positive projections for Q4 2025, anticipating significant gross profit growth and healthy free cash flow margins, alongside mid-to-high-twenties percentage revenue growth for the full year 2025.

2. Analyst Confidence and Increased Price Targets. Throughout the period, several prominent financial analysts expressed heightened confidence in Shopify's strategic direction, leading to upward revisions of their price targets for the stock. This optimistic sentiment was partly influenced by a reduction in concerns regarding potential tariff impacts on the company's operations.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
SHOP Return185%22%-75%124%36%53%310%
Peers Return-53%38%26%-15%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SHOP Win Rate67%67%25%67%50%67% 
Peers Win Rate52%28%62%53%43% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SHOP Max Drawdown-19%-8%-81%0%-33%-28% 
Peers Max Drawdown-60%-14%-19%-30% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LSPD, ADBE, TOST, PYPL, AMZN. See SHOP Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventSHOPS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-84.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven558.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,109 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-40.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven68.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven32 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-31.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven45.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven46 days120 days

Compare to AMZN, SNOW, WDAY, EBAY, ETSY


In The Past

Shopify's stock fell -84.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/19/2021. A -84.8% loss requires a 558.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Shopify (SHOP)

Better Bets than Shopify (SHOP)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to SHOP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
9.6%9.6%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.1%10.1%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.5%13.5%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
9.1%9.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
9.6%9.6%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.1%10.1%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.5%13.5%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
9.1%9.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Shopify

Peers to compare with:

Financials

SHOPLSPDADBETOSTPYPLAMZNMedian
NameShopify Lightspe.Adobe Toast PayPal Amazon.c. 
Mkt Price161.7311.76354.6635.5060.18221.27110.95
Mkt Cap210.31.6150.020.857.22,353.6103.6
Rev LTM10,6961,15723,1815,85832,862670,03816,938
Op Inc LTM1,681-1268,4022476,29676,1903,988
FCF LTM1,903-99,5995645,56513,4813,734
FCF 3Y Avg1,295-787,9252675,26521,6773,280
CFO LTM1,923319,7926146,426121,1374,174
CFO 3Y Avg1,322-548,1853145,97296,9773,647

Growth & Margins

SHOPLSPDADBETOSTPYPLAMZNMedian
NameShopify Lightspe.Adobe Toast PayPal Amazon.c. 
Rev Chg LTM30.2%14.2%10.7%25.8%4.5%10.9%12.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg26.8%20.9%10.5%33.6%6.7%11.3%16.1%
Rev Chg Q31.5%15.1%10.7%25.1%7.3%13.3%14.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM6.8%3.7%2.6%5.9%1.8%3.0%3.4%
Op Mgn LTM15.7%-10.9%36.2%4.2%19.2%11.4%13.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg7.6%-18.1%35.4%-1.9%17.9%7.9%7.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.4%0.8%-0.1%0.7%0.1%0.3%0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM18.0%2.7%42.2%10.5%19.6%18.1%18.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg14.9%-6.4%39.0%5.9%19.0%15.8%15.3%
FCF/Rev LTM17.8%-0.8%41.4%9.6%16.9%2.0%13.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg14.5%-8.8%37.7%4.9%16.8%3.5%9.7%

Valuation

SHOPLSPDADBETOSTPYPLAMZNMedian
NameShopify Lightspe.Adobe Toast PayPal Amazon.c. 
Mkt Cap210.31.6150.020.857.22,353.6103.6
P/S18.11.47.13.61.93.53.6
P/EBIT114.9-2.418.886.59.827.423.1
P/E108.5-2.323.578.213.033.128.3
P/CFO100.551.816.734.89.919.327.0
Total Yield0.9%-43.0%4.3%1.3%7.7%3.0%2.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg1.1%-3.5%4.0%1.4%7.5%1.1%1.2%
D/E0.00.00.00.00.20.10.0
Net D/E-0.0-0.30.0-0.10.00.0-0.0

Returns

SHOPLSPDADBETOSTPYPLAMZNMedian
NameShopify Lightspe.Adobe Toast PayPal Amazon.c. 
1M Rtn15.6%2.5%9.1%2.3%-2.8%-5.0%2.4%
3M Rtn9.4%-7.2%-2.0%-12.7%-12.1%-4.5%-5.8%
6M Rtn52.6%5.0%-6.2%-16.6%-12.0%4.1%-1.0%
12M Rtn35.4%-28.7%-22.1%-7.0%-33.6%-4.3%-14.6%
3Y Rtn348.1%-18.8%4.8%89.2%-12.9%151.8%47.0%
1M Excs Rtn14.8%1.8%8.4%1.5%-3.5%-5.7%1.7%
3M Excs Rtn5.0%-8.0%-4.8%-15.8%-13.3%-5.7%-6.8%
6M Excs Rtn40.2%-7.4%-18.6%-29.0%-24.4%-8.3%-13.4%
12M Excs Rtn30.0%-38.6%-34.9%-18.0%-44.8%-13.8%-26.4%
3Y Excs Rtn253.0%-90.8%-63.6%10.2%-86.7%75.9%-26.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment7,0605,6004,6122,9291,578
Total7,0605,6004,6122,9291,578


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity17,404,782
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520254.9%
Average Daily Volume9,374,987
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.86
Basic Shares Quantity1,300,069,685
Short % of Basic Shares1.3%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/4/2025-6.9%-8.1%-6.1%
8/6/202522.0%17.6%14.3%
5/8/2025-0.5%17.9%17.9%
2/11/20253.1%7.8%-19.5%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive232
# Negative212
Median Positive12.5%17.6%16.1%
Median Negative-3.7%-8.1%-12.8%
Max Positive22.0%17.9%17.9%
Max Negative-6.9%-8.1%-19.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251104202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024211202510-K 12/31/2024
9302024111220246-K 9/30/2024
630202480720246-K 6/30/2024
331202450820246-K 3/31/2024
12312023213202440-F 12/31/2023
9302023110220236-K 9/30/2023
630202380320236-K 6/30/2023
331202350420236-K 3/31/2023
12312022216202340-F 12/31/2022
9302022102720226-K 9/30/2022
630202272720226-K 6/30/2022
331202250520226-K 3/31/2022
12312021216202240-F 12/31/2021