National Vision (EYE)
Market Price (10/28/2026): $16.2 | Market Cap: $1.3 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Other Specialty Retail
National Vision (EYE)
Market Price (10/28/2026): $16.2Market Cap: $1.3 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Other Specialty Retail
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Geriatric Care, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -65% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 20% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.1% Key risksEYE key risks include [1] declining sales and a high rate of store closures, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Geriatric Care, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -65% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 20% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.1% |
| Key risksEYE key risks include [1] declining sales and a high rate of store closures, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
National Vision (EYE) stock has lost about 15% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Weakening consumer traffic and value-conscious spending in the optical market.
The broader optical industry experienced a decline in exam volume by nearly 2.5 million visits in the first half of fiscal year 2026 compared to the first half of fiscal year 2025. This macroeconomic trend indicates reduced consumer engagement in eye care. Concurrently, consumers demonstrated "economic caution" in fiscal Q1 and Q2 2026, opting for "lower price points" and "stretching current eyewear rather than pulling back for financial reasons" across the optical market. This shifted to mid-range purchases in fiscal Q3 2026, with spending under $100 or over $200 on eyewear decreasing. This broader trend aligns with National Vision's own reported "lower self-pay customer traffic" during its fiscal Q2 2026, which ended July 4, 2026.
2. Analyst price target reductions despite an earnings beat.
Following the release of its fiscal Q2 2026 earnings on August 12, 2026, National Vision reported an Adjusted Diluted EPS of $0.25, surpassing analysts' consensus estimates of $0.18 by $0.07. Additionally, net revenue increased 2.5% year-over-year to $498.8 million. Despite this positive performance, several analysts subsequently lowered their price targets for EYE stock around August 13, 2026. For instance, UBS Group reduced its target from $36.00 to $34.00, Morgan Stanley from $22.00 to $21.00, and Citigroup from $39.00 to $35.00. These reductions suggest a more cautious long-term outlook from the analyst community, potentially overriding the strong short-term results and contributing to downward stock pressure.
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National Vision (EYE) stock has lost about 15% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Weakening consumer traffic and value-conscious spending in the optical market.
The broader optical industry experienced a decline in exam volume by nearly 2.5 million visits in the first half of fiscal year 2026 compared to the first half of fiscal year 2025. This macroeconomic trend indicates reduced consumer engagement in eye care. Concurrently, consumers demonstrated "economic caution" in fiscal Q1 and Q2 2026, opting for "lower price points" and "stretching current eyewear rather than pulling back for financial reasons" across the optical market. This shifted to mid-range purchases in fiscal Q3 2026, with spending under $100 or over $200 on eyewear decreasing. This broader trend aligns with National Vision's own reported "lower self-pay customer traffic" during its fiscal Q2 2026, which ended July 4, 2026.
2. Analyst price target reductions despite an earnings beat.
Following the release of its fiscal Q2 2026 earnings on August 12, 2026, National Vision reported an Adjusted Diluted EPS of $0.25, surpassing analysts' consensus estimates of $0.18 by $0.07. Additionally, net revenue increased 2.5% year-over-year to $498.8 million. Despite this positive performance, several analysts subsequently lowered their price targets for EYE stock around August 13, 2026. For instance, UBS Group reduced its target from $36.00 to $34.00, Morgan Stanley from $22.00 to $21.00, and Citigroup from $39.00 to $35.00. These reductions suggest a more cautious long-term outlook from the analyst community, potentially overriding the strong short-term results and contributing to downward stock pressure.
3. Overall investor caution despite raised company guidance.
In its fiscal Q2 2026 earnings report, National Vision raised its full-year adjusted operating income guidance and tightened its outlook for adjusted comparable store sales growth. However, the stock's continued decline, which has seen it trade near the lower end of its 52-week range of $14.75 to $30.02, suggests that broader investor caution regarding the consumer discretionary sector, coupled with the company's acknowledged "lower self-pay customer traffic," outweighed the positive guidance. The stock's current valuation remains significantly below the average analyst price target of approximately $29.82, indicating that market participants are valuing the company more conservatively due to prevailing economic uncertainties impacting optical retail spending.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -14.8% change in EYE stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/27/2026 was primarily driven by a -21.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302026 | 10272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 19.01 | 16.20 | -14.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,021 | 2,033 | 0.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.3% | 2.5% | 7.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 32.5 | 25.6 | -21.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 80 | 80 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -14.8% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2026 to 10/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EYE | -14.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.1% | 4.2% |
| Sector (XLY) | -1.6% | 21.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -37.5% change in EYE stock from 3/31/2026 to 10/27/2026 was primarily driven by a -63.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 10272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 25.90 | 16.20 | -37.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,987 | 2,033 | 2.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.5% | 2.5% | 66.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 69.4 | 25.6 | -63.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 79 | 80 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -37.5% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 10/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EYE | -37.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 18.7% | 9.2% |
| Sector (XLY) | 6.1% | 23.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -44.5% change in EYE stock from 9/30/2025 to 10/27/2026 was primarily driven by a -48.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 10272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 29.19 | 16.20 | -44.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,886 | 2,033 | 7.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.2 | 0.6 | -48.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 79 | 80 | -0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -44.5% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 10/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EYE | -44.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.5% | 25.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | -3.1% | 33.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 0.1% change in EYE stock from 9/30/2023 to 10/27/2026 was primarily driven by a 61.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 9302023 | 10272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 16.18 | 16.20 | 0.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,560 | 2,033 | 30.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.5% | 2.5% | 61.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 53.0 | 25.6 | -51.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 78 | 80 | -1.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.1% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2023 to 10/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EYE | 0.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 86.2% | 33.5% |
| Sector (XLY) | 46.7% | 37.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| EYE Return | 6% | -19% | -46% | -50% | 148% | -31% | -61% |
| Peers Return | 29% | -37% | 4% | -11% | 0% | 23% | -8% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 103% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| EYE Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 42% | 33% | 67% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 47% | 52% | 48% | 50% | 54% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 40% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| EYE Max Drawdown | -30% | -53% | -68% | -59% | -20% | -48% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -28% | -50% | -35% | -35% | -36% | -31% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: COO, JNJ, BHC, HZO, STAA. See EYE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/27/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | EYE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -12.2% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 23 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -15.2% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.9% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 88 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -44.0% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 78.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 635 days | 24 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -61.4% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 159.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 142 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -41.1% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.8% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 685 days | 105 days |
In The Past
National Vision's stock fell -12.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 13.9% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | EYE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -44.0% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 78.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 635 days | 24 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -61.4% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 159.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 142 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -41.1% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.8% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 685 days | 105 days |
In The Past
National Vision's stock fell -12.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 13.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About National Vision (EYE)
National Vision Holdings, Inc. (EYE) operates as a leading optical retailer throughout the United States. The company's core business revolves around providing affordable and accessible vision care products and services to consumers through an extensive network of retail stores and e-commerce channels.
The company's primary offerings include a comprehensive selection of prescription eyeglasses and contact lenses, along with various optical accessory products. A key service provided is the facilitation of eye exams, which are made available through its well-known retail banners such as America's Best, Eyeglass World, Vista Optical (including locations within Fred Meyer stores and military bases), and Vision Center branded stores.
National Vision primarily serves a broad consumer market across the U.S., catering to individuals seeking convenient and cost-effective eye care solutions. With operations spanning nearly 1,300 retail stores and various online platforms, the company aims to meet the vision needs of a wide demographic, including those covered by health maintenance organizations.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe National Vision (EYE):
- It's like the Walmart for eyeglasses and eye exams.
- Think of it as the Starbucks of affordable eye care.
- It's essentially a Jiffy Lube for your eyes.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Eyeglasses: Prescription and non-prescription eyewear for vision correction.
- Contact Lenses: Corrective contact lenses for various vision needs.
- Optical Accessory Products: Complementary items such as cleaning solutions, cases, and other accessories for eyewear.
- Eye Exams: Professional vision testing and assessments provided by optometrists.
- Health Maintenance Organization (HMO) Services: Services related to vision care provided under managed healthcare plans.
- Optometric Services: Professional services provided by optometrists, including consultations and vision care management.
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Major Customers of National Vision (EYE)
National Vision primarily sells eyeglasses, contact lenses, and eye exam services directly to individuals through its network of retail stores and e-commerce websites. The company serves the following categories of customers:
- Price-Conscious Consumers: Individuals seeking affordable and value-driven eyeglasses, contact lenses, and eye exams, primarily through brands like America's Best and Eyeglass World, which are known for their competitive pricing and promotional offers.
- Convenience-Oriented Shoppers: Customers who utilize National Vision's services within host retail environments, such as Fred Meyer and other mass merchandisers, valuing the ease of accessing eye care and eyewear while conducting other shopping activities.
- Military Personnel and their Families: A specific demographic served through its Vista Optical military locations, catering to the unique needs and benefits often associated with this customer group.
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- Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
- Bausch + Lomb Corporation (BLCO)
- Alcon Inc. (ALC)
- CooperCompanies (COO)
- Safilo Group S.p.A. (SFL.MI)
- Marchon
- EssilorLuxottica (EL.PA)
- Hoya Corporation (7741.T)
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Alex Wilkes, Chief Executive Officer
Alex Wilkes joined National Vision as President in August 2024 and became Chief Executive Officer in August 2025. Prior to his current role, he served as President, Americas at CooperVision. Wilkes also spent more than a decade at EssilorLuxottica, where his roles included Senior Vice President and General Manager of Pearle Vision, overseeing the expansion of one of the largest franchises in the vision care industry, and Vice President of Vision Care for LensCrafters. His early career involved management consulting at Accenture and Deloitte. He holds a B.A. in Economics from the University of Iowa.
Christopher Laden, Chief Financial Officer
Christopher Laden was appointed Chief Financial Officer of National Vision, effective March 31, 2025. He most recently served as Chief Financial Officer for Community Veterinary Partners, a consolidator of veterinary hospitals. Previously, Laden was CFO for Women's Care and MD Now Urgent Care. He also held various leadership positions, including Head of Finance, at Pearle Vision, a division of EssilorLuxottica. Laden brings nearly two decades of experience leading finance organizations within the service and optical industries.
Reade Fahs, Executive Chairman
Reade Fahs served as CEO of National Vision for 23 years, from early 2002 until August 2025, when he transitioned to Executive Chairman. Under his leadership, National Vision grew to become one of the largest and fastest-growing optical retailers in the United States. Before joining National Vision, Fahs was the Chief Executive Officer of the European internet start-up company First Tuesday from 1999 to 2001. Prior to that, he was the Managing Director of Vision Express U.K. between 1997 and 1999. He began his optical career at LensCrafters in 1986, where he spent a decade leading advertising, strategy, and new product development. Fahs also serves on the boards of VisionSpring and RestoringVision, and is involved with KKR-owned PetVet Care Centers, Montag Wealth Management, The Atlanta Committee for Progress, and Atlanta's Alliance Theatre. He holds a B.A. in English and American Literature from Harvard University.
Jeff McAllister, Chief Operating Officer
Jeff McAllister serves as the Chief Operating Officer for National Vision, a role he began in July 2017. Before joining National Vision, McAllister was a Senior Vice President at Walmart, where he spent 19 years. His extensive experience at Walmart includes roles such as Vice President of Logistics Engineering and Planning, Vice President of Global Supply Chain, Chief Operating Officer for Walmart Japan, and Senior Vice President for Optical. He also led operations for Walmart's Health and Wellness Group and its Texas Division. Earlier in his career, McAllister managed logistics for Saks Fifth Avenue and May Department Stores. He earned his undergraduate degree from the University of Michigan.
Alexander Smith, O.D., Head of Doctor Network
Alexander Smith, O.D., is the Head of Doctor Network at National Vision. In this role, he collaborates with leaders across the organization to ensure that optometrists deliver high standards of clinical care and support their career development. His responsibilities include overseeing the Doctor network's leadership programs and initiatives related to doctor training, development, mentorship, innovation, and continuing education. Dr. Smith has over two decades of experience in the optometric industry, starting his career as a practicing optometrist at America's Best. He has practiced in various settings, including medical, retail, and group practices, and has held executive management roles focused on advocating for optometrists. He holds a B.A. from James Madison University and both a B.S. and Doctor of Optometry degree from the Pennsylvania College of Optometry.
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- Economic Uncertainty and Consumer Spending: National Vision's performance is highly sensitive to the overall economic environment, including factors like inflation, consumer confidence, and employment rates. The company's reliance on discretionary consumer spending, particularly from its focus on lower-income consumers, makes it vulnerable to economic downturns and shifts in consumer behavior, which can materially harm sales, profitability, and financial condition. The current macroeconomic environment has already impacted customer demand, and predictability of recurring purchase behavior, especially for cash-pay consumers, remains uncertain.
- Highly Competitive Industry Landscape: The optical retail industry is intensely competitive and fragmented. National Vision faces significant competition from a diverse range of players, including mass merchants, specialty retail chains, online retailers, and independent practitioners. Failure to compete successfully in this environment could materially adversely impact the business.
- Regulatory Changes and Compliance: As an optical retailer, National Vision is subject to extensive legal and regulatory requirements across federal, state, and local levels, particularly concerning healthcare laws, insurance coverage, and labor regulations. Changes in these regulations, or the company's inability to continuously monitor and adapt to them, could affect operations and profitability. There are also specific risks related to the recruitment and contractual relationships with vision care professionals, as certain jurisdictions may challenge the legality of existing arrangements.
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The rise of direct-to-consumer (DTC) online optical providers, offering eyewear directly to consumers with enhanced convenience and often competitive pricing, poses a clear emerging threat to traditional brick-and-mortar optical retailers. Furthermore, the increasing adoption and technological advancements in teleoptometry and remote eye examination services could reduce the necessity for in-store eye exams, a core service provided by National Vision, thereby facilitating purely online eyewear purchases and potentially bypassing physical store locations.
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The addressable markets for National Vision's main products and services in the United States are as follows:
- Overall U.S. Optical/Vision Care Market: The U.S. optical industry was estimated to be valued at $69.5 billion in 2025.
- Eyeglasses (Spectacles): The U.S. eyewear market was valued at USD 45.50 billion in 2024. Spectacles accounted for approximately 75% of this market in 2023, which would be around USD 34.125 billion.
- Contact Lenses: The United States contact lenses market was valued at US$ 3.09 billion in 2024.
- Eye Exams/Optometric Services: The U.S. eye care services market, which includes vision testing and eye exams, was valued at USD 47.55 billion in 2024.
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National Vision Holdings, Inc. (EYE) is focusing on several key drivers to fuel future revenue growth over the next two to three years:
- Expansion into Underdeveloped Customer Segments: The company is strategically shifting its focus beyond traditional cash-pay customers to attract and capture a larger share of more profitable customer groups, including managed care patients, progressive lens wearers, and individuals with outside prescriptions. This intentional evolution of the customer base is expected to drive a healthier business overall.
- Product Premiumization and Evolving Offerings: National Vision is enhancing its product mix by increasing the penetration of premium lens products and branded frames. This strategy has already seen the proportion of frames priced above $99 double from approximately 20% at the end of 2024 to 40% by the end of 2025, leading to a higher average ticket per customer. The rollout of new eyewear such as Meta AI glasses is also contributing to this growth.
- Strategic Store Expansion: While new store openings will proceed at a measured pace of around 30 stores per year between 2026 and 2027, the company plans to accelerate this expansion to approximately 60 stores annually from 2028 to 2030.
- Enhancing Customer Experience and Technology Investments: The company is investing in modernizing various aspects of its business, including customer engagement, in-store digital tools, data, and technology infrastructure. This also involves leveraging remote technology to expand eye exam capacity and implementing electronic health records to improve efficiency and the overall patient experience.
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Share Repurchases
- In November 2021, National Vision's board of directors authorized an increase of $50 million, bringing the total share repurchase program to $100 million. Approximately $48.4 million worth of shares had been repurchased as of December 2021, with the program valid through December 30, 2023.
- Effective March 2, 2026, the company's board authorized a new share repurchase program for up to $50 million, valid until December 28, 2030.
- The initial intent of share repurchase authorizations has been to offset dilution from equity grants.
Share Issuance
- The company's share repurchase programs have aimed to offset share dilution related to equity grants.
- National Vision had approximately 80.576 million weighted diluted shares outstanding in fiscal 2025.
- Additional Paid-in Capital for National Vision has shown an increase, from $750.48 million in 2022 to $834.00 million in 2026.
Capital Expenditures
- For fiscal year 2025, National Vision invested $72.8 million in capital expenditures, primarily focused on new and existing stores and information technology. The company opened 33 new stores during this period, while closing 12 America's Best stores and 11 Fred Meyer stores.
- For fiscal year 2026, the company expects capital expenditures to be between $73 million and $78 million.
- These projected capital expenditures for 2026 include investments to open approximately 30 to 35 new stores, with a primary focus on America's Best locations, as well as continued investments in existing stores and technology.
Peer Outperformance in Other Specialty Retail
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EYE | National Vision | 9.3% | 25.6x | -37.6% | 3.7% | -72.8% | — |
| ULTA | Ulta Beauty | 6.5% | 22.3x | 19.9% | 65.0% | 69.5% | +142pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education Services | 14 | -22.0% | 45.5% | 81.7% | CVSA 246% · PRDO 227% · LRN 134% |
| Homebuilding | 17 | -7.0% | 49.1% | 31.0% | PHM 161% · GRBK 157% · TOL 151% |
| Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines | 21 | 5.7% | 48.0% | 19.7% | RCL 267% · MAR 155% · LIND 154% |
| Home Furnishings | 3 | -6.7% | 63.3% | 1.4% | SGI 42% · MHK -35% |
| Automotive Retail | 17 | -15.5% | 15.9% | -1.8% | MUSA 229% · PAG 132% · ORLY 107% |
| Home Improvement Retail | 5 | -16.9% | 14.7% | -5.5% | HD -3% · LOW -6% · FND -64% |
| Specialized Consumer Services | 10 | -15.2% | 31.9% | -13.6% | HRB 146% · FTDR 100% · SCI 41% |
| Footwear | 9 | 54.3% | 44.3% | -21.3% | DECK 28% · SHOO 8% · CROX -21% |
| Restaurants | 36 | -13.0% | -1.6% | -23.2% | EAT 360% · CAKE 197% · TXRH 106% |
| Distributors | 4 | -17.9% | -14.1% | -25.9% | ARMK 125% · GPC 6% · POOL -58% |
| Leisure Products | 14 | -19.0% | -8.3% | -34.6% | GOLF 79% · HAS 53% · BC -16% |
| Apparel Retail | 27 | -3.6% | 9.9% | -38.1% | ANF 333% · TJX 133% · ROST 120% |
| Household Appliances | 18 | 3.8% | 10.3% | -38.6% | |
| Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods | 29 | -1.9% | 22.8% | -38.8% | RL 254% · TPR 232% · KTB 69% |
| Leisure Facilities | 12 | 7.5% | 0.6% | -42.1% | LTH 144% · OSW 133% · PLNT -34% |
| Computer & Electronics Retail | 3 | -0.7% | 77.0% | -46.1% | BBY 5% · GME -46% |
| Automotive Parts & Equipment | 39 | -13.0% | -12.2% | -46.5% | MOD 1181% · GTX 238% · PATK 54% |
| Casinos & Gaming | 20 | -20.2% | -19.4% | -48.5% | MCRI 81% · RRR 14% · BYD 12% |
| Broadline Retail | 13 | -5.7% | 35.7% | -50.9% | EBAY 66% · AMZN 49% · OLLI 27% |
| Other Specialty Retail ← | 24 | -22.8% | -12.1% | -59.8% | ULTA 70% · ASO 45% · DKS 30% |
| Automobile Manufacturers | 8 | -79.5% | -44.9% | -71.5% | GM 55% · TSLA 18% · F 3% |
| Consumer Electronics | 11 | -34.9% | -25.4% | -77.0% | GRMN 119% · SONO -43% |
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Peer Comparisons
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Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 38.31 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.8 |
| Rev LTM | 3,216 |
| Op Inc LTM | 315 |
| FCF LTM | 428 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 237 |
| CFO LTM | 626 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 479 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 27.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 5.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 13.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.4% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2026 | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Owned & Host | 1,979 | 1,794 | 1,730 |
| Corporate and other | 21 | 28 | 252 |
| Effects of unearned and deferred revenue | -12 | 1 | |
| Legacy | 151 | ||
| Reconciliations | -7 | ||
| Total | 1,987 | 1,823 | 2,126 |
| $ Mil | 2026 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owned & Host | 431 | 348 | 441 | 441 |
| Effects of unearned and deferred revenue | -10 | |||
| Depreciation and amortization | -91 | -98 | -97 | -97 |
| Corporate and other | -272 | -314 | -196 | -196 |
| Legacy | 23 | 33 | 33 | |
| Reconciliations | -5 | -7 | -7 | |
| Total | 59 | -47 | 175 | 175 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $16.20 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/26/2017 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -45.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $17.19 | $21.52 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -5.8% | -24.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 47.4% | 51.7% |
| Downside Capture | 87.38 | 137.03 |
| Upside Capture | -17.78 | 80.61 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 10.0% | 26.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.69 | 0.71 | 0.60 | 0.61 | 1.13 | 1.15 |
| Up Beta | -2.09 | 2.27 | 0.57 | 1.29 | 1.31 | 1.31 |
| Down Beta | 3.31 | 2.24 | 0.30 | -0.36 | 1.11 | 0.98 |
| Up Capture | 48% | -82% | 27% | -2% | 51% | 99% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 6 | 16 | 27 | 66 | 132 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 14 | 22 | 34 | 64 | 124 | 371 |
| Down Capture | 133% | 182% | 121% | 137% | 131% | 106% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 16 | 26 | 37 | 60 | 120 | 328 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 19 | 28 | 60 | 126 | 370 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with EYE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EYE | -36.5% | 51.7% | -0.69 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | -2.3% | 19.3% | -0.25 | 33.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.6% | 12.7% | 0.79 | 24.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | -1.4% | 28.5% | -0.06 | 6.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 47.3% | 20.6% | 1.76 | -17.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.8% | 13.9% | 0.02 | 26.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -27.9% | 43.4% | -0.63 | 14.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with EYE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EYE | -22.7% | 53.1% | -0.27 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 4.7% | 24.1% | 0.15 | 42.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.56 | 38.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.6% | 18.9% | 0.75 | 4.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.2% | 19.5% | 0.35 | 0.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.0% | 18.9% | -0.06 | 39.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.5% | 51.6% | 0.27 | 18.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with EYE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EYE | -4.9% | 52.3% | 0.11 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.6% | 22.2% | 0.51 | 48.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.5% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 46.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.0% | 16.4% | 0.60 | 4.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 11.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 44.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 62.2% | 66.2% | 1.02 | 14.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/15/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/12/2026 | -11.6% | -14.8% | -22.3% |
| 5/13/2026 | -19.2% | -19.2% | -12.8% |
| 3/4/2026 | 9.0% | 3.3% | -10.2% |
| 11/5/2025 | -3.5% | -5.7% | 14.4% |
| 8/6/2025 | -3.7% | -7.2% | -6.9% |
| 5/7/2025 | 17.1% | 41.5% | 56.5% |
| 2/26/2025 | 11.6% | 5.7% | 16.8% |
| 11/6/2024 | -2.5% | -7.5% | -9.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 12 | 11 |
| # Negative | 13 | 12 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 4.5% | 7.6% | 12.7% |
| Median Negative | -11.6% | -14.6% | -16.7% |
| Max Positive | 17.1% | 41.5% | 56.5% |
| Max Negative | -39.1% | -39.8% | -51.8% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/12/2026 | -11.6% | -14.8% | -22.3% |
| 5/13/2026 | -19.2% | -19.2% | -12.8% |
| 3/4/2026 | 9.0% | 3.3% | -10.2% |
| 11/5/2025 | -3.5% | -5.7% | 14.4% |
| 8/6/2025 | -3.7% | -7.2% | -6.9% |
| 5/7/2025 | 17.1% | 41.5% | 56.5% |
| 2/26/2025 | 11.6% | 5.7% | 16.8% |
| 11/6/2024 | -2.5% | -7.5% | -9.1% |
| 8/7/2024 | -21.7% | -24.0% | -27.0% |
| 5/8/2024 | -16.6% | -14.5% | -18.6% |
| 2/27/2024 | 15.8% | 15.8% | 9.4% |
| 11/9/2023 | 3.0% | 15.9% | 11.5% |
| 8/10/2023 | -5.5% | -6.2% | -19.5% |
| 5/11/2023 | 4.5% | 9.5% | 14.7% |
| 3/1/2023 | -39.1% | -39.8% | -51.8% |
| 11/10/2022 | 10.2% | 11.4% | 5.3% |
| 8/11/2022 | 3.1% | 12.1% | 12.7% |
| 5/10/2022 | -25.7% | -23.5% | -16.7% |
| 2/28/2022 | -4.1% | 0.8% | 15.9% |
| 11/10/2021 | -13.1% | -24.1% | -26.1% |
| 8/12/2021 | 0.9% | 1.2% | 7.8% |
| 5/13/2021 | 0.1% | 3.9% | 2.9% |
| 3/3/2021 | -0.3% | -3.8% | -8.3% |
| 11/5/2020 | 3.5% | 4.5% | -2.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 12 | 11 |
| # Negative | 13 | 12 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 4.5% | 7.6% | 12.7% |
| Median Negative | -11.6% | -14.6% | -16.7% |
| Max Positive | 17.1% | 41.5% | 56.5% |
| Max Negative | -39.1% | -39.8% | -51.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/13/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/14/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/04/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/26/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/27/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/11/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/01/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/13/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/14/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/04/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/26/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/27/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/11/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/01/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/11/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/28/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/10/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/12/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/13/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/03/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/07/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/26/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/07/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 10/26/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/12/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 New Stores | Reported | 30 | 32.5 | 35 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 32.5 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Comparable Store Sales Growth | Reported | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | -0.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 4.5% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Depreciation and Amortization | Reported | 92.00 Mil | 92.50 Mil | 93.00 Mil | 2.8% | Raised | Guidance: 90.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Net Revenue | Reported | 2.04 Bil | 2.06 Bil | 2.08 Bil | -0.3% | Lowered | Guidance: 2.06 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Operating Income | Reported | 119.00 Mil | 129.00 Mil | 139.00 Mil | 7.5% | Raised | Guidance: 120.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Interest | Reported | 11.00 Mil | 12.00 Mil | 13.00 Mil | -20.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 15.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Tax Rate | Reported | 30.0% | 2.0% | Raised | Guidance: 28.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 0.94 | 1.02 | 1.09 | 4.6% | Raised | Guidance: 0.97 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 72.00 Mil | 74.00 Mil | 76.00 Mil | -2.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 75.50 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/13/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 New Stores | Reported | 30 | 32.5 | 35 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 32.5 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Comparable Store Sales Growth | Reported | 3.0% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 4.5% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Depreciation and Amortization | Reported | 88.00 Mil | 90.00 Mil | 92.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 2.03 Bil | 2.06 Bil | 2.09 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.06 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Operating Income | Reported | 107.00 Mil | 120.00 Mil | 133.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 120.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Interest | Reported | 14.00 Mil | 15.00 Mil | 16.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Tax Rate | Reported | 28.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 0.85 | 0.97 | 1.09 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.97 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 73.00 Mil | 75.50 Mil | 78.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 75.50 Mil for 2026 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 New Stores | Reported | 30 | 32.5 | 35 | 1.6% | Higher New | Actual: 32 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Comparable Store Sales Growth | Reported | 3.0% | 4.5% | 6.0% | -1.0% | Lower New | Actual: 5.5% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 2.03 Bil | 2.06 Bil | 2.09 Bil | 4.2% | Higher New | Actual: 1.98 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Operating Income | Reported | 107.00 Mil | 120.00 Mil | 133.00 Mil | 26.3% | Higher New | Actual: 95.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 0.85 | 0.97 | 1.09 | 44.8% | Higher New | Actual: 0.67 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 73.00 Mil | 75.50 Mil | 78.00 Mil | -8.5% | Lower New | Actual: 82.50 Mil for 2025 | |
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/5/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 New Stores | Reported | 32 | Affirmed | Guidance: 32 for 2025 | ||||
| 2025 Adjusted Comparable Store Sales Growth | Reported | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 1.5% | Raised | Guidance: 4.0% for 2025 | |
| 2025 Depreciation and Amortization | Reported | 91.00 Mil | 92.00 Mil | 93.00 Mil | ||||
| 2025 Revenue | Reported | 1.97 Bil | 1.98 Bil | 1.99 Bil | 1.4% | Raised | Guidance: 1.95 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted Operating Income | Reported | 92.00 Mil | 95.00 Mil | 98.00 Mil | 5.6% | Raised | Guidance: 90.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Interest | Reported | 17.00 Mil | 18.00 Mil | 19.00 Mil | ||||
| 2025 Tax Rate | Reported | 28.0% | ||||||
| 2025 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 0.63 | 0.67 | 0.71 | 1.5% | Raised | Guidance: 0.66 for 2025 | |
| 2025 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 80.00 Mil | 82.50 Mil | 85.00 Mil | -6.8% | Lowered | Guidance: 88.50 Mil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 9/3/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nicholson, Michael J | LLC | Buy | 6092026 | 15.52 | 50,000 | 776,000 | 776,000 | Form | |
| 2 | Wilkes, Alexander | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 26.54 | 35,000 | 928,900 | 436,079 | Form |
| 3 | Fahs, L Reade | Executive Chairman | Direct | Sell | 3092026 | 29.58 | 7,601 | 224,838 | 20,554,550 | Form |
| 4 | Fahs, L Reade | Executive Chairman | Held by Trust | Sell | 3092026 | 29.57 | 4,071 | 120,379 | 10,626,246 | Form |
| 5 | Fahs, L Reade | Executive Chairman | Direct | Sell | 9172025 | 23.93 | 10,598 | 253,610 | 12,735,426 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nicholson, Michael J | LLC | Buy | 6092026 | 15.52 | 50,000 | 776,000 | 776,000 | Form | |
| 2 | Wilkes, Alexander | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 26.54 | 35,000 | 928,900 | 436,079 | Form |
| 3 | Fahs, L Reade | Executive Chairman | Direct | Sell | 3092026 | 29.58 | 7,601 | 224,838 | 20,554,550 | Form |
| 4 | Fahs, L Reade | Executive Chairman | Held by Trust | Sell | 3092026 | 29.57 | 4,071 | 120,379 | 10,626,246 | Form |
| 5 | Fahs, L Reade | Executive Chairman | Direct | Sell | 9172025 | 23.93 | 10,598 | 253,610 | 12,735,426 | Form |
| 6 | Fahs, L Reade | Executive Chairman | Direct | Sell | 9172025 | 23.81 | 2,002 | 47,668 | 12,923,901 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Oct 28, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Other Specialty Retail Resources |
| Specialty Retailer |
| Retail Gazette |
| Inside Retail |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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