National Vision (EYE)


Market Price (10/28/2026): $16.2 | Market Cap: $1.3 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Other Specialty Retail

National Vision (EYE)


Market Price (10/28/2026): $16.2
Market Cap: $1.3 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Other Specialty Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Geriatric Care, Show more.

Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -65%

Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 20%

Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.1%

Key risks
EYE key risks include [1] declining sales and a high rate of store closures, Show more.

0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Geriatric Care, Show more.
1 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -65%
2 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 20%
3 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.1%
4 Key risks
EYE key risks include [1] declining sales and a high rate of store closures, Show more.

EYE in ETFs

Weight = EYE's share of each fund

VTI0.00%
ITOT0.00%
IWM0.05%
IJR0.08%
VB0.02%
SLYG0.18%
IJT0.18%
NUSC0.11%
+12 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 10/27/2026

National Vision (EYE) stock has lost about 15% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Weakening consumer traffic and value-conscious spending in the optical market.

The broader optical industry experienced a decline in exam volume by nearly 2.5 million visits in the first half of fiscal year 2026 compared to the first half of fiscal year 2025. This macroeconomic trend indicates reduced consumer engagement in eye care. Concurrently, consumers demonstrated "economic caution" in fiscal Q1 and Q2 2026, opting for "lower price points" and "stretching current eyewear rather than pulling back for financial reasons" across the optical market. This shifted to mid-range purchases in fiscal Q3 2026, with spending under $100 or over $200 on eyewear decreasing. This broader trend aligns with National Vision's own reported "lower self-pay customer traffic" during its fiscal Q2 2026, which ended July 4, 2026.

2. Analyst price target reductions despite an earnings beat.

Following the release of its fiscal Q2 2026 earnings on August 12, 2026, National Vision reported an Adjusted Diluted EPS of $0.25, surpassing analysts' consensus estimates of $0.18 by $0.07. Additionally, net revenue increased 2.5% year-over-year to $498.8 million. Despite this positive performance, several analysts subsequently lowered their price targets for EYE stock around August 13, 2026. For instance, UBS Group reduced its target from $36.00 to $34.00, Morgan Stanley from $22.00 to $21.00, and Citigroup from $39.00 to $35.00. These reductions suggest a more cautious long-term outlook from the analyst community, potentially overriding the strong short-term results and contributing to downward stock pressure.

Show more
Updated on 10/27/2026

National Vision (EYE) stock has lost about 15% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Weakening consumer traffic and value-conscious spending in the optical market.

The broader optical industry experienced a decline in exam volume by nearly 2.5 million visits in the first half of fiscal year 2026 compared to the first half of fiscal year 2025. This macroeconomic trend indicates reduced consumer engagement in eye care. Concurrently, consumers demonstrated "economic caution" in fiscal Q1 and Q2 2026, opting for "lower price points" and "stretching current eyewear rather than pulling back for financial reasons" across the optical market. This shifted to mid-range purchases in fiscal Q3 2026, with spending under $100 or over $200 on eyewear decreasing. This broader trend aligns with National Vision's own reported "lower self-pay customer traffic" during its fiscal Q2 2026, which ended July 4, 2026.

2. Analyst price target reductions despite an earnings beat.

Following the release of its fiscal Q2 2026 earnings on August 12, 2026, National Vision reported an Adjusted Diluted EPS of $0.25, surpassing analysts' consensus estimates of $0.18 by $0.07. Additionally, net revenue increased 2.5% year-over-year to $498.8 million. Despite this positive performance, several analysts subsequently lowered their price targets for EYE stock around August 13, 2026. For instance, UBS Group reduced its target from $36.00 to $34.00, Morgan Stanley from $22.00 to $21.00, and Citigroup from $39.00 to $35.00. These reductions suggest a more cautious long-term outlook from the analyst community, potentially overriding the strong short-term results and contributing to downward stock pressure.

3. Overall investor caution despite raised company guidance.

In its fiscal Q2 2026 earnings report, National Vision raised its full-year adjusted operating income guidance and tightened its outlook for adjusted comparable store sales growth. However, the stock's continued decline, which has seen it trade near the lower end of its 52-week range of $14.75 to $30.02, suggests that broader investor caution regarding the consumer discretionary sector, coupled with the company's acknowledged "lower self-pay customer traffic," outweighed the positive guidance. The stock's current valuation remains significantly below the average analyst price target of approximately $29.82, indicating that market participants are valuing the company more conservatively due to prevailing economic uncertainties impacting optical retail spending.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -14.8% change in EYE stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/27/2026 was primarily driven by a -21.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)630202610272026Change
Stock Price ($)19.0116.20-14.8%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)2,0212,0330.6%
Net Income Margin (%)2.3%2.5%7.3%
P/E Multiple32.525.6-21.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)80800.1%
Cumulative Contribution-14.8%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/30/2026 to 10/27/2026
ReturnCorrelation
EYE-14.8% 
Market (SPY)3.1%4.2%
Sector (XLY)-1.6%21.8%

Fundamental Drivers

The -37.5% change in EYE stock from 3/31/2026 to 10/27/2026 was primarily driven by a -63.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)331202610272026Change
Stock Price ($)25.9016.20-37.5%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1,9872,0332.3%
Net Income Margin (%)1.5%2.5%66.0%
P/E Multiple69.425.6-63.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)7980-0.2%
Cumulative Contribution-37.5%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2026 to 10/27/2026
ReturnCorrelation
EYE-37.5% 
Market (SPY)18.7%9.2%
Sector (XLY)6.1%23.7%

Fundamental Drivers

The -44.5% change in EYE stock from 9/30/2025 to 10/27/2026 was primarily driven by a -48.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)930202510272026Change
Stock Price ($)29.1916.20-44.5%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1,8862,0337.8%
P/S Multiple1.20.6-48.2%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)7980-0.6%
Cumulative Contribution-44.5%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

9/30/2025 to 10/27/2026
ReturnCorrelation
EYE-44.5% 
Market (SPY)16.5%25.6%
Sector (XLY)-3.1%33.6%

Fundamental Drivers

The 0.1% change in EYE stock from 9/30/2023 to 10/27/2026 was primarily driven by a 61.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)930202310272026Change
Stock Price ($)16.1816.200.1%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1,5602,03330.3%
Net Income Margin (%)1.5%2.5%61.9%
P/E Multiple53.025.6-51.7%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)7880-1.8%
Cumulative Contribution0.1%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

9/30/2023 to 10/27/2026
ReturnCorrelation
EYE0.1% 
Market (SPY)86.2%33.5%
Sector (XLY)46.7%37.9%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
EYE Return6%-19%-46%-50%148%-31%-61%
Peers Return29%-37%4%-11%0%23%-8%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%11%103%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
EYE Win Rate58%42%42%33%67%50% 
Peers Win Rate60%47%52%48%50%54% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%40% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
EYE Max Drawdown-30%-53%-68%-59%-20%-48% 
Peers Max Drawdown-28%-50%-35%-35%-36%-31% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: COO, JNJ, BHC, HZO, STAA. See EYE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/27/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventEYES&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-12.2%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven13.9%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven23 days79 days
2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind
  % Loss-15.2%-7.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven17.9%8.5%
  Time to Breakeven88 days18 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-44.0%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven78.5%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven635 days24 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-61.4%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven159.3%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven142 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-41.1%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven69.8%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven685 days105 days

Compare to COO, JNJ, BHC, HZO, STAA

In The Past

National Vision's stock fell -12.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 13.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventEYES&P 500
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-44.0%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven78.5%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven635 days24 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-61.4%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven159.3%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven142 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-41.1%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven69.8%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven685 days105 days

Compare to COO, JNJ, BHC, HZO, STAA

In The Past

National Vision's stock fell -12.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 13.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About National Vision (EYE)

National Vision Holdings, Inc. (EYE) operates as a leading optical retailer throughout the United States. The company's core business revolves around providing affordable and accessible vision care products and services to consumers through an extensive network of retail stores and e-commerce channels.

The company's primary offerings include a comprehensive selection of prescription eyeglasses and contact lenses, along with various optical accessory products. A key service provided is the facilitation of eye exams, which are made available through its well-known retail banners such as America's Best, Eyeglass World, Vista Optical (including locations within Fred Meyer stores and military bases), and Vision Center branded stores.

National Vision primarily serves a broad consumer market across the U.S., catering to individuals seeking convenient and cost-effective eye care solutions. With operations spanning nearly 1,300 retail stores and various online platforms, the company aims to meet the vision needs of a wide demographic, including those covered by health maintenance organizations.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe National Vision (EYE):

  • It's like the Walmart for eyeglasses and eye exams.
  • Think of it as the Starbucks of affordable eye care.
  • It's essentially a Jiffy Lube for your eyes.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Eyeglasses: Prescription and non-prescription eyewear for vision correction.
  • Contact Lenses: Corrective contact lenses for various vision needs.
  • Optical Accessory Products: Complementary items such as cleaning solutions, cases, and other accessories for eyewear.
  • Eye Exams: Professional vision testing and assessments provided by optometrists.
  • Health Maintenance Organization (HMO) Services: Services related to vision care provided under managed healthcare plans.
  • Optometric Services: Professional services provided by optometrists, including consultations and vision care management.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Major Customers of National Vision (EYE)

National Vision primarily sells eyeglasses, contact lenses, and eye exam services directly to individuals through its network of retail stores and e-commerce websites. The company serves the following categories of customers:

  • Price-Conscious Consumers: Individuals seeking affordable and value-driven eyeglasses, contact lenses, and eye exams, primarily through brands like America's Best and Eyeglass World, which are known for their competitive pricing and promotional offers.
  • Convenience-Oriented Shoppers: Customers who utilize National Vision's services within host retail environments, such as Fred Meyer and other mass merchandisers, valuing the ease of accessing eye care and eyewear while conducting other shopping activities.
  • Military Personnel and their Families: A specific demographic served through its Vista Optical military locations, catering to the unique needs and benefits often associated with this customer group.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
  • Bausch + Lomb Corporation (BLCO)
  • Alcon Inc. (ALC)
  • CooperCompanies (COO)
  • Safilo Group S.p.A. (SFL.MI)
  • Marchon
  • EssilorLuxottica (EL.PA)
  • Hoya Corporation (7741.T)

AI Analysis | Feedback

Alex Wilkes, Chief Executive Officer

Alex Wilkes joined National Vision as President in August 2024 and became Chief Executive Officer in August 2025. Prior to his current role, he served as President, Americas at CooperVision. Wilkes also spent more than a decade at EssilorLuxottica, where his roles included Senior Vice President and General Manager of Pearle Vision, overseeing the expansion of one of the largest franchises in the vision care industry, and Vice President of Vision Care for LensCrafters. His early career involved management consulting at Accenture and Deloitte. He holds a B.A. in Economics from the University of Iowa.

Christopher Laden, Chief Financial Officer

Christopher Laden was appointed Chief Financial Officer of National Vision, effective March 31, 2025. He most recently served as Chief Financial Officer for Community Veterinary Partners, a consolidator of veterinary hospitals. Previously, Laden was CFO for Women's Care and MD Now Urgent Care. He also held various leadership positions, including Head of Finance, at Pearle Vision, a division of EssilorLuxottica. Laden brings nearly two decades of experience leading finance organizations within the service and optical industries.

Reade Fahs, Executive Chairman

Reade Fahs served as CEO of National Vision for 23 years, from early 2002 until August 2025, when he transitioned to Executive Chairman. Under his leadership, National Vision grew to become one of the largest and fastest-growing optical retailers in the United States. Before joining National Vision, Fahs was the Chief Executive Officer of the European internet start-up company First Tuesday from 1999 to 2001. Prior to that, he was the Managing Director of Vision Express U.K. between 1997 and 1999. He began his optical career at LensCrafters in 1986, where he spent a decade leading advertising, strategy, and new product development. Fahs also serves on the boards of VisionSpring and RestoringVision, and is involved with KKR-owned PetVet Care Centers, Montag Wealth Management, The Atlanta Committee for Progress, and Atlanta's Alliance Theatre. He holds a B.A. in English and American Literature from Harvard University.

Jeff McAllister, Chief Operating Officer

Jeff McAllister serves as the Chief Operating Officer for National Vision, a role he began in July 2017. Before joining National Vision, McAllister was a Senior Vice President at Walmart, where he spent 19 years. His extensive experience at Walmart includes roles such as Vice President of Logistics Engineering and Planning, Vice President of Global Supply Chain, Chief Operating Officer for Walmart Japan, and Senior Vice President for Optical. He also led operations for Walmart's Health and Wellness Group and its Texas Division. Earlier in his career, McAllister managed logistics for Saks Fifth Avenue and May Department Stores. He earned his undergraduate degree from the University of Michigan.

Alexander Smith, O.D., Head of Doctor Network

Alexander Smith, O.D., is the Head of Doctor Network at National Vision. In this role, he collaborates with leaders across the organization to ensure that optometrists deliver high standards of clinical care and support their career development. His responsibilities include overseeing the Doctor network's leadership programs and initiatives related to doctor training, development, mentorship, innovation, and continuing education. Dr. Smith has over two decades of experience in the optometric industry, starting his career as a practicing optometrist at America's Best. He has practiced in various settings, including medical, retail, and group practices, and has held executive management roles focused on advocating for optometrists. He holds a B.A. from James Madison University and both a B.S. and Doctor of Optometry degree from the Pennsylvania College of Optometry.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key risks to the business for National Vision (symbol: EYE):
  1. Economic Uncertainty and Consumer Spending: National Vision's performance is highly sensitive to the overall economic environment, including factors like inflation, consumer confidence, and employment rates. The company's reliance on discretionary consumer spending, particularly from its focus on lower-income consumers, makes it vulnerable to economic downturns and shifts in consumer behavior, which can materially harm sales, profitability, and financial condition. The current macroeconomic environment has already impacted customer demand, and predictability of recurring purchase behavior, especially for cash-pay consumers, remains uncertain.
  2. Highly Competitive Industry Landscape: The optical retail industry is intensely competitive and fragmented. National Vision faces significant competition from a diverse range of players, including mass merchants, specialty retail chains, online retailers, and independent practitioners. Failure to compete successfully in this environment could materially adversely impact the business.
  3. Regulatory Changes and Compliance: As an optical retailer, National Vision is subject to extensive legal and regulatory requirements across federal, state, and local levels, particularly concerning healthcare laws, insurance coverage, and labor regulations. Changes in these regulations, or the company's inability to continuously monitor and adapt to them, could affect operations and profitability. There are also specific risks related to the recruitment and contractual relationships with vision care professionals, as certain jurisdictions may challenge the legality of existing arrangements.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The rise of direct-to-consumer (DTC) online optical providers, offering eyewear directly to consumers with enhanced convenience and often competitive pricing, poses a clear emerging threat to traditional brick-and-mortar optical retailers. Furthermore, the increasing adoption and technological advancements in teleoptometry and remote eye examination services could reduce the necessity for in-store eye exams, a core service provided by National Vision, thereby facilitating purely online eyewear purchases and potentially bypassing physical store locations.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The addressable markets for National Vision's main products and services in the United States are as follows:

  • Overall U.S. Optical/Vision Care Market: The U.S. optical industry was estimated to be valued at $69.5 billion in 2025.
  • Eyeglasses (Spectacles): The U.S. eyewear market was valued at USD 45.50 billion in 2024. Spectacles accounted for approximately 75% of this market in 2023, which would be around USD 34.125 billion.
  • Contact Lenses: The United States contact lenses market was valued at US$ 3.09 billion in 2024.
  • Eye Exams/Optometric Services: The U.S. eye care services market, which includes vision testing and eye exams, was valued at USD 47.55 billion in 2024.

AI Analysis | Feedback

National Vision Holdings, Inc. (EYE) is focusing on several key drivers to fuel future revenue growth over the next two to three years:

  1. Expansion into Underdeveloped Customer Segments: The company is strategically shifting its focus beyond traditional cash-pay customers to attract and capture a larger share of more profitable customer groups, including managed care patients, progressive lens wearers, and individuals with outside prescriptions. This intentional evolution of the customer base is expected to drive a healthier business overall.
  2. Product Premiumization and Evolving Offerings: National Vision is enhancing its product mix by increasing the penetration of premium lens products and branded frames. This strategy has already seen the proportion of frames priced above $99 double from approximately 20% at the end of 2024 to 40% by the end of 2025, leading to a higher average ticket per customer. The rollout of new eyewear such as Meta AI glasses is also contributing to this growth.
  3. Strategic Store Expansion: While new store openings will proceed at a measured pace of around 30 stores per year between 2026 and 2027, the company plans to accelerate this expansion to approximately 60 stores annually from 2028 to 2030.
  4. Enhancing Customer Experience and Technology Investments: The company is investing in modernizing various aspects of its business, including customer engagement, in-store digital tools, data, and technology infrastructure. This also involves leveraging remote technology to expand eye exam capacity and implementing electronic health records to improve efficiency and the overall patient experience.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Share Repurchases

  • In November 2021, National Vision's board of directors authorized an increase of $50 million, bringing the total share repurchase program to $100 million. Approximately $48.4 million worth of shares had been repurchased as of December 2021, with the program valid through December 30, 2023.
  • Effective March 2, 2026, the company's board authorized a new share repurchase program for up to $50 million, valid until December 28, 2030.
  • The initial intent of share repurchase authorizations has been to offset dilution from equity grants.

Share Issuance

  • The company's share repurchase programs have aimed to offset share dilution related to equity grants.
  • National Vision had approximately 80.576 million weighted diluted shares outstanding in fiscal 2025.
  • Additional Paid-in Capital for National Vision has shown an increase, from $750.48 million in 2022 to $834.00 million in 2026.

Capital Expenditures

  • For fiscal year 2025, National Vision invested $72.8 million in capital expenditures, primarily focused on new and existing stores and information technology. The company opened 33 new stores during this period, while closing 12 America's Best stores and 11 Fred Meyer stores.
  • For fiscal year 2026, the company expects capital expenditures to be between $73 million and $78 million.
  • These projected capital expenditures for 2026 include investments to open approximately 30 to 35 new stores, with a primary focus on America's Best locations, as well as continued investments in existing stores and technology.

Better Bets vs. National Vision (EYE)

Peer Outperformance in Other Specialty Retail

EYE has trailed 61% of its 23 Other Specialty Retail peers over 5Y. Among the peers that beat it is ULTA. Other Specialty Retail ranks 20th of 22 industries in Consumer Discretionary by median 5Y return. The sector’s gains have largely come from elsewhere.
Share of Other Specialty Retail constituents that EYE has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
28%
of 25 industry peers · -37.6% return
3Y
56%
of 25 industry peers · 3.7% return
5Y
39%
of 23 industry peers · -72.8% return
Other Specialty Retail peers with revenue growth within 4pp of EYE's that beat it on at least 2 of 3 windows, and by at least 20pp over 5Y. Growth is matched by construction, so the gap is largely a re-rating gap. The multiple column is the context for it.
Ticker Name Rev Growth 3Y Avg P/E 1Y3Y5Y 5Y Gap
EYE National Vision 9.3% 25.6x -37.6%3.7%-72.8% —
ULTA Ulta Beauty 6.5% 22.3x 19.9%65.0%69.5% +142pp
Price returns, excluding dividends. P/E shown for context only and not used for matching.
Median price return by industry across the Consumer Discretionary sector, ranked by 5Y. Other Specialty Retail is EYE's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
Industry Names 1Y med3Y med5Y med Top 3 by 5Y
Education Services 14 -22.0%45.5%81.7% CVSA 246% · PRDO 227% · LRN 134%
Homebuilding 17 -7.0%49.1%31.0% PHM 161% · GRBK 157% · TOL 151%
Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines 21 5.7%48.0%19.7% RCL 267% · MAR 155% · LIND 154%
Home Furnishings 3 -6.7%63.3%1.4% SGI 42% · MHK -35%
Automotive Retail 17 -15.5%15.9%-1.8% MUSA 229% · PAG 132% · ORLY 107%
Home Improvement Retail 5 -16.9%14.7%-5.5% HD -3% · LOW -6% · FND -64%
Specialized Consumer Services 10 -15.2%31.9%-13.6% HRB 146% · FTDR 100% · SCI 41%
Footwear 9 54.3%44.3%-21.3% DECK 28% · SHOO 8% · CROX -21%
Restaurants 36 -13.0%-1.6%-23.2% EAT 360% · CAKE 197% · TXRH 106%
Distributors 4 -17.9%-14.1%-25.9% ARMK 125% · GPC 6% · POOL -58%
Leisure Products 14 -19.0%-8.3%-34.6% GOLF 79% · HAS 53% · BC -16%
Apparel Retail 27 -3.6%9.9%-38.1% ANF 333% · TJX 133% · ROST 120%
Household Appliances 18 3.8%10.3%-38.6%
Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods 29 -1.9%22.8%-38.8% RL 254% · TPR 232% · KTB 69%
Leisure Facilities 12 7.5%0.6%-42.1% LTH 144% · OSW 133% · PLNT -34%
Computer & Electronics Retail 3 -0.7%77.0%-46.1% BBY 5% · GME -46%
Automotive Parts & Equipment 39 -13.0%-12.2%-46.5% MOD 1181% · GTX 238% · PATK 54%
Casinos & Gaming 20 -20.2%-19.4%-48.5% MCRI 81% · RRR 14% · BYD 12%
Broadline Retail 13 -5.7%35.7%-50.9% EBAY 66% · AMZN 49% · OLLI 27%
Other Specialty Retail ← 24 -22.8%-12.1%-59.8% ULTA 70% · ASO 45% · DKS 30%
Automobile Manufacturers 8 -79.5%-44.9%-71.5% GM 55% · TSLA 18% · F 3%
Consumer Electronics 11 -34.9%-25.4%-77.0% GRMN 119% · SONO -43%
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are limited to companies above $2B market cap.

Latest Trefis Analyses

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

EYECOOJNJBHCHZOSTAAMedian
NameNational.Cooper C.Johnson .Bausch H.MarineMaxStaar Su. 
Mkt Price16.2059.20266.966.3752.4824.1538.31
Mkt Cap1.311.4643.32.41.21.21.8
Rev LTM2,0334,23799,33510,8532,1963403,216
Op Inc LTM8754425,5252,7616741315
FCF LTM4967819,5951,393178-7428
FCF 3Y Avg4742619,1001,1365-12237
CFO LTM1301,03326,1591,800219-3626
CFO 3Y Avg13782225,1701,523602479

Growth & Margins

EYECOOJNJBHCHZOSTAAMedian
NameNational.Cooper C.Johnson .Bausch H.MarineMaxStaar Su. 
Rev Chg LTM7.8%4.7%7.8%10.1%-5.4%51.3%7.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg9.3%6.4%5.9%9.1%-1.9%9.2%7.8%
Rev Chg Q2.5%0.6%5.9%12.7%-7.0%111.0%4.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.6%0.1%1.4%3.1%-2.0%16.9%1.0%
Op Inc Chg LTM94.7%-26.5%7.9%46.4%-42.4%150.2%27.2%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg56.9%5.7%4.4%26.2%-31.5%-86.4%5.0%
Op Mgn LTM4.3%12.8%25.7%25.4%3.0%12.1%12.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg2.6%16.0%25.4%21.1%4.5%-5.5%10.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.3%1.1%-1.1%2.2%0.5%9.9%0.8%
CFO/Rev LTM6.4%24.4%26.3%16.6%10.0%-1.0%13.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg7.2%20.2%27.1%15.2%2.8%-0.8%11.2%
FCF/Rev LTM2.4%16.0%19.7%12.8%8.1%-2.0%10.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg2.5%10.4%20.6%11.3%0.4%-5.8%6.4%

Valuation

EYECOOJNJBHCHZOSTAAMedian
NameNational.Cooper C.Johnson .Bausch H.MarineMaxStaar Su. 
Mkt Cap1.311.4643.32.41.21.21.8
P/S0.62.76.50.20.53.61.7
P/Op Inc14.821.025.20.917.329.619.2
P/EBIT15.620.734.42.717.329.619.0
P/E25.620.040.0-2.2290.6316.632.8
P/CFO9.911.124.61.35.3-373.77.6
Total Yield3.9%4.9%4.4%-46.4%0.3%0.3%2.1%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%2.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.5%3.4%4.0%46.7%-1.1%-1.7%3.4%
D/E0.50.20.18.71.00.00.4
Net D/E0.50.20.07.90.8-0.10.4

Returns

EYECOOJNJBHCHZOSTAAMedian
NameNational.Cooper C.Johnson .Bausch H.MarineMaxStaar Su. 
1M Rtn-2.0%6.9%-1.6%12.0%0.1%17.7%3.5%
3M Rtn-25.7%-17.8%0.6%40.9%47.9%6.6%3.6%
6M Rtn-32.7%-6.2%18.5%12.3%76.1%-9.6%3.1%
12M Rtn-37.6%-18.7%43.4%2.7%94.8%-13.1%-5.2%
3Y Rtn3.7%-22.8%99.7%-3.0%90.8%-37.4%0.3%
1M Excs Rtn1.3%5.4%-1.1%11.2%1.0%16.5%3.3%
3M Excs Rtn-30.4%-23.1%-3.1%31.9%50.3%-3.0%-3.1%
6M Excs Rtn-39.5%-12.9%11.7%5.5%69.3%-16.3%-3.7%
12M Excs Rtn-48.6%-31.6%31.2%-9.6%85.6%-20.3%-15.0%
3Y Excs Rtn-77.6%-106.6%10.1%-94.2%-4.7%-122.6%-85.9%

Comparison Analyses

null

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil202620242023
Owned & Host1,9791,7941,730
Corporate and other2128252
Effects of unearned and deferred revenue-121 
Legacy  151
Reconciliations  -7
Total1,9871,8232,126


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil2026202320222021
Owned & Host431348441441
Effects of unearned and deferred revenue-10   
Depreciation and amortization-91-98-97-97
Corporate and other-272-314-196-196
Legacy 233333
Reconciliations -5-7-7
Total59-47175175


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$16.20 
Market Cap ($ Bil)1.3 
First Trading Date10/26/2017 
Distance from 52W High-45.0% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$17.19$21.52
DMA Trenddowndown
Distance from DMA-5.8%-24.7%
 3M1YR
Volatility47.4%51.7%
Downside Capture87.38137.03
Upside Capture-17.7880.61
Correlation (S&P 500)10.0%26.7%
EYE Betas & Captures as of 9/30/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta0.690.710.600.611.131.15
Up Beta-2.092.270.571.291.311.31
Down Beta3.312.240.30-0.361.110.98
Up Capture48%-82%27%-2%51%99%
Bmk +ve Days6162766132424
Stock +ve Days14223464124371
Down Capture133%182%121%137%131%106%
Bmk -ve Days16263760120328
Stock -ve Days7192860126370

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with EYE
EYE-36.5%51.7%-0.69-
Sector ETF (XLY)-2.3%19.3%-0.2533.3%
Equity (SPY)14.6%12.7%0.7924.4%
Gold (GLD)-1.4%28.5%-0.066.7%
Commodities (DBC)47.3%20.6%1.76-17.2%
Real Estate (VNQ)3.8%13.9%0.0226.1%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-27.9%43.4%-0.6314.1%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with EYE
EYE-22.7%53.1%-0.27-
Sector ETF (XLY)4.7%24.1%0.1542.7%
Equity (SPY)12.8%17.1%0.5638.9%
Gold (GLD)17.6%18.9%0.754.9%
Commodities (DBC)9.2%19.5%0.350.5%
Real Estate (VNQ)1.0%18.9%-0.0639.1%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)4.5%51.6%0.2718.3%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with EYE
EYE-4.9%52.3%0.11-
Sector ETF (XLY)12.6%22.2%0.5148.7%
Equity (SPY)15.5%17.9%0.7346.6%
Gold (GLD)12.0%16.4%0.604.3%
Commodities (DBC)8.2%18.1%0.3711.6%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.2%20.7%0.2144.3%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)62.2%66.2%1.0214.4%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10152026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity15.7 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 93020261.2%
Average Daily Volume1.6 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest9.7 days
Basic Shares Quantity79.5 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares19.8%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 9/15/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/12/2026-11.6%-14.8%-22.3%
5/13/2026-19.2%-19.2%-12.8%
3/4/20269.0%3.3%-10.2%
11/5/2025-3.5%-5.7%14.4%
8/6/2025-3.7%-7.2%-6.9%
5/7/202517.1%41.5%56.5%
2/26/202511.6%5.7%16.8%
11/6/2024-2.5%-7.5%-9.1%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111211
# Negative131213
Median Positive4.5%7.6%12.7%
Median Negative-11.6%-14.6%-16.7%
Max Positive17.1%41.5%56.5%
Max Negative-39.1%-39.8%-51.8%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/12/2026-11.6%-14.8%-22.3%
5/13/2026-19.2%-19.2%-12.8%
3/4/20269.0%3.3%-10.2%
11/5/2025-3.5%-5.7%14.4%
8/6/2025-3.7%-7.2%-6.9%
5/7/202517.1%41.5%56.5%
2/26/202511.6%5.7%16.8%
11/6/2024-2.5%-7.5%-9.1%
8/7/2024-21.7%-24.0%-27.0%
5/8/2024-16.6%-14.5%-18.6%
2/27/202415.8%15.8%9.4%
11/9/20233.0%15.9%11.5%
8/10/2023-5.5%-6.2%-19.5%
5/11/20234.5%9.5%14.7%
3/1/2023-39.1%-39.8%-51.8%
11/10/202210.2%11.4%5.3%
8/11/20223.1%12.1%12.7%
5/10/2022-25.7%-23.5%-16.7%
2/28/2022-4.1%0.8%15.9%
11/10/2021-13.1%-24.1%-26.1%
8/12/20210.9%1.2%7.8%
5/13/20210.1%3.9%2.9%
3/3/2021-0.3%-3.8%-8.3%
11/5/20203.5%4.5%-2.1%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111211
# Negative131213
Median Positive4.5%7.6%12.7%
Median Negative-11.6%-14.6%-16.7%
Max Positive17.1%41.5%56.5%
Max Negative-39.1%-39.8%-51.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202608/13/202610-Q
03/31/202605/14/202610-Q
12/31/202503/04/202610-K
09/30/202511/06/202510-Q
06/30/202508/07/202510-Q
03/31/202505/08/202510-Q
12/31/202402/26/202510-K
09/30/202411/06/202410-Q
06/30/202408/07/202410-Q
03/31/202405/08/202410-Q
12/31/202302/27/202410-K
09/30/202311/09/202310-Q
06/30/202308/10/202310-Q
03/31/202305/11/202310-Q
12/31/202203/01/202310-K
09/30/202211/10/202210-Q
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202608/13/202610-Q
03/31/202605/14/202610-Q
12/31/202503/04/202610-K
09/30/202511/06/202510-Q
06/30/202508/07/202510-Q
03/31/202505/08/202510-Q
12/31/202402/26/202510-K
09/30/202411/06/202410-Q
06/30/202408/07/202410-Q
03/31/202405/08/202410-Q
12/31/202302/27/202410-K
09/30/202311/09/202310-Q
06/30/202308/10/202310-Q
03/31/202305/11/202310-Q
12/31/202203/01/202310-K
09/30/202211/10/202210-Q
06/30/202208/11/202210-Q
03/31/202205/10/202210-Q
12/31/202102/28/202210-K
09/30/202111/10/202110-Q
06/30/202108/12/202110-Q
03/31/202105/13/202110-Q
12/31/202003/03/202110-K
09/30/202011/05/202010-Q
06/30/202008/06/202010-Q
03/31/202005/07/202010-Q
12/31/201902/26/202010-K
09/30/201911/07/201910-Q

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 10/26/2026

Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/12/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 New StoresReported3032.5350.0% AffirmedGuidance: 32.5 for 2026
2026 Adjusted Comparable Store Sales GrowthReported3.0%4.0%5.0% -0.5%LoweredGuidance: 4.5% for 2026
2026 Depreciation and AmortizationReported92.00 Mil92.50 Mil93.00 Mil2.8% RaisedGuidance: 90.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Net RevenueReported2.04 Bil2.06 Bil2.08 Bil-0.3% LoweredGuidance: 2.06 Bil for 2026
2026 Adjusted Operating IncomeReported119.00 Mil129.00 Mil139.00 Mil7.5% RaisedGuidance: 120.00 Mil for 2026
2026 InterestReported11.00 Mil12.00 Mil13.00 Mil-20.0% LoweredGuidance: 15.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Tax RateReported 30.0%  2.0%RaisedGuidance: 28.0% for 2026
2026 Adjusted Diluted EPSReported0.941.021.094.6% RaisedGuidance: 0.97 for 2026
2026 Capital ExpendituresReported72.00 Mil74.00 Mil76.00 Mil-2.0% LoweredGuidance: 75.50 Mil for 2026


Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/13/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 New StoresReported3032.5350 AffirmedGuidance: 32.5 for 2026
2026 Adjusted Comparable Store Sales GrowthReported3.0%4.5%6.0% 0AffirmedGuidance: 4.5% for 2026
2026 Depreciation and AmortizationReported88.00 Mil90.00 Mil92.00 Mil   
2026 RevenueReported2.03 Bil2.06 Bil2.09 Bil0 AffirmedGuidance: 2.06 Bil for 2026
2026 Adjusted Operating IncomeReported107.00 Mil120.00 Mil133.00 Mil0 AffirmedGuidance: 120.00 Mil for 2026
2026 InterestReported14.00 Mil15.00 Mil16.00 Mil   
2026 Tax RateReported 28.0%    
2026 Adjusted Diluted EPSReported0.850.971.090 AffirmedGuidance: 0.97 for 2026
2026 Capital ExpendituresReported73.00 Mil75.50 Mil78.00 Mil0 AffirmedGuidance: 75.50 Mil for 2026

Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/4/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 New StoresReported3032.5351.6% Higher NewActual: 32 for 2025
2026 Adjusted Comparable Store Sales GrowthReported3.0%4.5%6.0% -1.0%Lower NewActual: 5.5% for 2025
2026 RevenueReported2.03 Bil2.06 Bil2.09 Bil4.2% Higher NewActual: 1.98 Bil for 2025
2026 Adjusted Operating IncomeReported107.00 Mil120.00 Mil133.00 Mil26.3% Higher NewActual: 95.00 Mil for 2025
2026 Adjusted Diluted EPSReported0.850.971.0944.8% Higher NewActual: 0.67 for 2025
2026 Capital ExpendituresReported73.00 Mil75.50 Mil78.00 Mil-8.5% Lower NewActual: 82.50 Mil for 2025

Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/5/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2025 New StoresReported 32   AffirmedGuidance: 32 for 2025
2025 Adjusted Comparable Store Sales GrowthReported5.0%5.5%6.0% 1.5%RaisedGuidance: 4.0% for 2025
2025 Depreciation and AmortizationReported91.00 Mil92.00 Mil93.00 Mil   
2025 RevenueReported1.97 Bil1.98 Bil1.99 Bil1.4% RaisedGuidance: 1.95 Bil for 2025
2025 Adjusted Operating IncomeReported92.00 Mil95.00 Mil98.00 Mil5.6% RaisedGuidance: 90.00 Mil for 2025
2025 InterestReported17.00 Mil18.00 Mil19.00 Mil   
2025 Tax RateReported 28.0%    
2025 Adjusted Diluted EPSReported0.630.670.711.5% RaisedGuidance: 0.66 for 2025
2025 Capital ExpendituresReported80.00 Mil82.50 Mil85.00 Mil-6.8% LoweredGuidance: 88.50 Mil for 2025

Insider Activity

Updated 9/3/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Nicholson, Michael J LLCBuy609202615.5250,000776,000776,000Form
2Wilkes, AlexanderChief Executive OfficerDirectSell312202626.5435,000928,900436,079Form
3Fahs, L ReadeExecutive ChairmanDirectSell309202629.587,601224,83820,554,550Form
4Fahs, L ReadeExecutive ChairmanHeld by TrustSell309202629.574,071120,37910,626,246Form
5Fahs, L ReadeExecutive ChairmanDirectSell917202523.9310,598253,61012,735,426Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Nicholson, Michael J LLCBuy609202615.5250,000776,000776,000Form
2Wilkes, AlexanderChief Executive OfficerDirectSell312202626.5435,000928,900436,079Form
3Fahs, L ReadeExecutive ChairmanDirectSell309202629.587,601224,83820,554,550Form
4Fahs, L ReadeExecutive ChairmanHeld by TrustSell309202629.574,071120,37910,626,246Form
5Fahs, L ReadeExecutive ChairmanDirectSell917202523.9310,598253,61012,735,426Form
6Fahs, L ReadeExecutive ChairmanDirectSell917202523.812,00247,66812,923,901Form

Investor Activity (13F)

Updated Oct 28, 2026
13F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)

Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.

Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
BWCP, LP$20.6 Mil3.1%27ADD +26.5%13F
Glenview Capital Management, LLC$40.6 Mil1.1%41ADD +9.6%13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
BWCP, LP$20.6 Mil3.1%27ADD +26.5%13F
Glenview Capital Management, LLC$40.6 Mil1.1%41ADD +9.6%13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Hook Mill Capital Partners, LP$6.8 Mil0.6%39Exited13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Glenview Capital Management, LLC$40.6 Mil1.1%41ADD +9.6%13F
BWCP, LP$20.6 Mil3.1%27ADD +26.5%13F
Core Cache Last Updated: 10/27/2026