National Vision (EYE)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $28.4 | Market Cap: $2.2 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Specialty Stores
National Vision (EYE)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $28.4Market Cap: $2.2 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Specialty Stores
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 48% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.6% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 87x |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Geriatric Care, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -95% | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 149% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.4% | |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 121% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.3% | ||
| Key risksEYE key risks include [1] declining sales and a high rate of store closures, Show more. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 48% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Geriatric Care, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.6% |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -95% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 87x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 149% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.4% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 121% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.3% |
| Key risksEYE key risks include [1] declining sales and a high rate of store closures, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
EYE Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The 23.8% movement in National Vision (EYE) stock for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, can be attributed to several key developments:
1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results and Raised Outlook. National Vision reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results on November 5, 2025, with revenues exceeding analyst forecasts and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) meeting expectations. Additionally, the company raised its full-year 2025 guidance for adjusted earnings, net revenue, and adjusted comparable store sales growth, signaling improved financial performance and positive future prospects.
2. Unveiling of Comprehensive Transformation Strategy. On November 17, 2025, National Vision detailed a comprehensive transformation strategy and long-term financial objectives through fiscal 2030 at an Investor Day event. This strategic plan aims to deliver consistent profitable growth, including high-single-digit annual net revenue growth and an expansion of adjusted operating margins by 50 to 150 basis points annually. This announcement alone contributed to a 7% increase in the stock price on the day it was revealed.
Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| EYE Return | 40% | 6% | -19% | -46% | -50% | 174% | -12% |
| Peers Return | 27% | 38% | -27% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 49% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| EYE Win Rate | 92% | 58% | 42% | 42% | 33% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 62% | 48% | 52% | 50% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| EYE Max Drawdown | -58% | -6% | -52% | -64% | -54% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -40% | -1% | -44% | -17% | -16% | -29% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: JNJ, COO, BHC, STAA, DKS. See EYE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | EYE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -78.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 366.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -64.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 181.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 162 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -50.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 101.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 398 days | 120 days |
Compare to JNJ, COO, BHC, STAA, DKS
In The Past
National Vision's stock fell -78.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/5/2021. A -78.6% loss requires a 366.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| National Vision Earnings Notes | |||
| National Vision Stock Jump Looks Great, But How Secure Is That Gain? | Return | ||
| National Vision (EYE) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| National Vision (EYE) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| National Vision (EYE) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| National Vision (EYE) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| National Vision (EYE) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | ||
| National Vision (EYE) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | ||
| National Vision (EYE) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| EYE Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| What’s Next For National Vision Stock After A Large 20% Fall? | November 15th, 2021 | ||
| Here’s Why National Vision Holdings Stock Is Likely To See Even Higher Levels | August 31st, 2021 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to EYE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for National Vision
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 55.44 |
| Mkt Cap | 8.0 |
| Rev LTM | 6,975 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,097 |
| FCF LTM | 261 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 381 |
| CFO LTM | 957 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 742 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 13.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 8.0 |
| P/S | 2.3 |
| P/EBIT | 7.6 |
| P/E | 18.1 |
| P/CFO | 15.5 |
| Total Yield | 3.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 8.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 7.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 22.1% |
| 12M Rtn | -2.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | -0.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 1.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 9.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -11.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -71.3% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2025 | -3.5% | -5.7% | 14.4% |
| 8/6/2025 | -3.7% | -7.2% | -6.9% |
| 5/7/2025 | 17.1% | 41.5% | 56.5% |
| 1/16/2025 | 0.5% | 5.1% | 13.9% |
| 11/6/2024 | -2.5% | -7.5% | -9.1% |
| 8/7/2024 | -21.7% | -24.0% | -27.0% |
| 5/8/2024 | -16.6% | -14.5% | -18.6% |
| 2/27/2024 | 15.8% | 15.8% | 9.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 14 | 13 |
| # Negative | 12 | 10 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 3.3% | 5.5% | 13.9% |
| Median Negative | -8.6% | -14.0% | -18.6% |
| Max Positive | 17.1% | 41.5% | 56.5% |
| Max Negative | -39.1% | -39.8% | -51.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/27/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/28/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/29/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/28/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/29/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/30/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8102023 | 10-Q 7/1/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5112023 | 10-Q 4/1/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3012023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11102022 | 10-Q 10/1/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8112022 | 10-Q 7/2/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 4/2/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 1/1/2022 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | FAHS L READE | Executive Chairman | 8292025 | Sell | 23.85 | 64,670 | 1,542,380 | 14,727,971 | Form |
| 1 | Molony Megan | SVP, CHIEF MERCH. & MC OFFICER | 5162025 | Sell | 18.90 | 3,900 | 73,710 | 75,128 | Form |
| 2 | Acharya Ravi | SVP, Chief Technology Officer | 5142025 | Sell | 18.75 | 12,000 | 225,060 | 219,434 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |