National Vision (EYE)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $29.03 | Market Cap: $2.3 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Specialty Stores
National Vision (EYE)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $29.03Market Cap: $2.3 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Specialty Stores
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.5% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 87x |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Geriatric Care, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -101% | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 151% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.4% | |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 121% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.3% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Geriatric Care, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.5% |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -101% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 87x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 151% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.4% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 121% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.3% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
EYE Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Performance: National Vision reported net revenue growth of 7.9% to $487.3 million for the third quarter of 2025, exceeding analyst forecasts. This growth was supported by a 7.7% increase in adjusted comparable store sales, marking the eleventh consecutive quarter of positive comparable store sales growth.
2. Raised Full-Year 2025 Financial Guidance: Following the strong Q3 results, National Vision raised its full-year 2025 outlook for adjusted earnings, net revenue, and adjusted comparable store sales growth. This upward revision signaled management's increased confidence in the company's continued performance and future growth prospects.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| EYE Return | 40% | 6% | -19% | -46% | -50% | 168% | -14% |
| Peers Return | 27% | 38% | -27% | 5% | 6% | 3% | 48% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| EYE Win Rate | 92% | 58% | 42% | 42% | 33% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 62% | 48% | 52% | 50% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| EYE Max Drawdown | -58% | -6% | -52% | -64% | -54% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -40% | -1% | -44% | -17% | -16% | -29% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: JNJ, COO, BHC, STAA, DKS. See EYE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | EYE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -78.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 366.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -64.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 181.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 162 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -50.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 101.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 398 days | 120 days |
Compare to JNJ, COO, BHC, STAA, DKS
In The Past
National Vision's stock fell -78.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/5/2021. A -78.6% loss requires a 366.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| National Vision Earnings Notes | |||
| How Low Can National Vision Stock Really Go? | Return | ||
| National Vision (EYE) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| National Vision (EYE) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| National Vision (EYE) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| National Vision (EYE) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| National Vision (EYE) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | ||
| National Vision (EYE) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | ||
| National Vision (EYE) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| EYE Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| What’s Next For National Vision Stock After A Large 20% Fall? | November 15th, 2021 | ||
| Here’s Why National Vision Holdings Stock Is Likely To See Even Higher Levels | August 31st, 2021 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to EYE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for National Vision
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 52.25 |
| Mkt Cap | 8.9 |
| Rev LTM | 6,952 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,147 |
| FCF LTM | 438 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 362 |
| CFO LTM | 1,119 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 723 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 14.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 8.9 |
| P/S | 2.4 |
| P/EBIT | 11.8 |
| P/E | 15.6 |
| P/CFO | 12.6 |
| Total Yield | 3.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 11.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 36.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 5.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | -8.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 2.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 21.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -12.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -71.4% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/27/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/28/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/29/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/28/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/29/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/30/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8102023 | 10-Q 7/1/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5112023 | 10-Q 4/1/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3012023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11102022 | 10-Q 10/1/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8112022 | 10-Q 7/2/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 4/2/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 1/1/2022 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | FAHS L READE | Executive Chairman | 8292025 | Sell | 23.85 | 64,670 | 1,542,380 | 14,727,971 | Form |
| 1 | Molony Megan | SVP, CHIEF MERCH. & MC OFFICER | 5162025 | Sell | 18.90 | 3,900 | 73,710 | 75,128 | Form |
| 2 | Acharya Ravi | SVP, Chief Technology Officer | 5142025 | Sell | 18.75 | 12,000 | 225,060 | 219,434 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |