Tearsheet

National Vision (EYE)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $28.4 | Market Cap: $2.2 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Specialty Stores

National Vision (EYE)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $28.4
Market Cap: $2.2 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Specialty Stores

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 48%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -3.6%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 87x
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Geriatric Care, Show more.
Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -95%
Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 149%
2  Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.4%
3   Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 121%
4   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.3%
5   Key risks
EYE key risks include [1] declining sales and a high rate of store closures, Show more.
0 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 48%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Geriatric Care, Show more.
2 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -3.6%
3 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -95%
4 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 87x
6 Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 149%
7 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.4%
8 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 121%
9 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.3%
10 Key risks
EYE key risks include [1] declining sales and a high rate of store closures, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

EYE Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The 23.8% movement in National Vision (EYE) stock for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, can be attributed to several key developments:



1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results and Raised Outlook. National Vision reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results on November 5, 2025, with revenues exceeding analyst forecasts and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) meeting expectations. Additionally, the company raised its full-year 2025 guidance for adjusted earnings, net revenue, and adjusted comparable store sales growth, signaling improved financial performance and positive future prospects.

2. Unveiling of Comprehensive Transformation Strategy. On November 17, 2025, National Vision detailed a comprehensive transformation strategy and long-term financial objectives through fiscal 2030 at an Investor Day event. This strategic plan aims to deliver consistent profitable growth, including high-single-digit annual net revenue growth and an expansion of adjusted operating margins by 50 to 150 basis points annually. This announcement alone contributed to a 7% increase in the stock price on the day it was revealed.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
EYE Return40%6%-19%-46%-50%174%-12%
Peers Return27%38%-27%5%6%4%49%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
EYE Win Rate92%58%42%42%33%67% 
Peers Win Rate53%62%48%52%50%53% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
EYE Max Drawdown-58%-6%-52%-64%-54%0% 
Peers Max Drawdown-40%-1%-44%-17%-16%-29% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: JNJ, COO, BHC, STAA, DKS. See EYE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventEYES&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-78.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven366.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-64.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven181.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven162 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-50.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven101.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven398 days120 days

Compare to JNJ, COO, BHC, STAA, DKS


In The Past

National Vision's stock fell -78.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/5/2021. A -78.6% loss requires a 366.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About National Vision (EYE)

Better Bets than National Vision (EYE)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to EYE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
12.8%12.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.4%5.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.5%15.5%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.3%15.3%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
12.8%12.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.4%5.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.5%15.5%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.3%15.3%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for National Vision

Peers to compare with:

Financials

EYEJNJCOOBHCSTAADKSMedian
NameNational.Johnson .Cooper C.Bausch H.Staar Su.Dick's S. 
Mkt Price28.40210.3382.486.8225.89207.9655.44
Mkt Cap2.2506.513.52.51.318.98.0
Rev LTM1,92192,1494,0929,85822414,8836,975
Op Inc LTM4924,1466831,886-821,5121,097
FCF LTM8318,6794341,104-4489261
FCF 3Y Avg5117,814312450-10647381
CFO LTM16324,2047961,506-291,119957
CFO 3Y Avg14623,20970478081,404742

Growth & Margins

EYEJNJCOOBHCSTAADKSMedian
NameNational.Johnson .Cooper C.Bausch H.Staar Su.Dick's S. 
Rev Chg LTM6.3%5.1%5.1%7.1%-32.6%10.9%5.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg0.4%6.1%7.4%6.4%-2.3%7.1%6.3%
Rev Chg Q7.9%6.8%4.6%5.3%-55.2%36.3%6.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.9%1.7%1.2%1.3%-19.6%8.1%1.5%
Op Mgn LTM2.6%26.2%16.7%19.1%-36.4%10.2%13.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg1.7%26.4%16.5%18.2%-6.7%10.5%13.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.2%1.7%-1.6%0.1%-20.2%-1.1%-0.5%
CFO/Rev LTM8.5%26.3%19.5%15.3%-12.7%7.5%11.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg8.5%26.4%18.2%8.0%1.2%10.4%9.4%
FCF/Rev LTM4.3%20.3%10.6%11.2%-19.5%0.6%7.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg2.9%20.3%8.0%4.4%-5.2%5.0%4.7%

Valuation

EYEJNJCOOBHCSTAADKSMedian
NameNational.Johnson .Cooper C.Bausch H.Staar Su.Dick's S. 
Mkt Cap2.2506.513.52.51.318.98.0
P/S1.24.83.30.23.71.32.3
P/EBIT86.913.8-1.4-10.2-7.6
P/E-1,002.017.836.124.4-8.718.518.1
P/CFO14.218.417.01.6-29.116.915.5
Total Yield-0.1%8.4%2.8%4.1%-11.5%5.9%3.4%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.3%4.4%-18.1%-1.6%-3.8%
D/E0.30.1-9.10.0-0.2
Net D/E0.30.1-8.4-0.2-0.2

Returns

EYEJNJCOOBHCSTAADKSMedian
NameNational.Johnson .Cooper C.Bausch H.Staar Su.Dick's S. 
1M Rtn16.1%6.1%15.6%11.3%-2.3%0.1%8.7%
3M Rtn14.3%19.5%28.2%-0.1%-4.7%-6.1%7.1%
6M Rtn23.5%41.5%18.1%10.4%53.6%20.7%22.1%
12M Rtn149.1%48.1%-12.7%-11.2%1.8%-5.8%-2.0%
3Y Rtn-24.9%31.2%3.8%-4.3%-52.3%100.2%-0.3%
1M Excs Rtn15.4%5.3%14.9%10.5%-3.0%-0.7%7.9%
3M Excs Rtn6.1%20.2%21.4%-2.4%-6.0%-9.3%1.9%
6M Excs Rtn11.1%29.1%5.8%-2.0%41.3%8.3%9.7%
12M Excs Rtn137.8%36.8%-24.1%-23.8%-6.9%-15.8%-11.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-95.3%-38.9%-63.4%-79.3%-125.0%14.5%-71.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Owned & Host1,7301,6171,6841,3421,325
Other segments33    
Effects of unearned and deferred revenue-7    
Corporate/Other 243236234245
Legacy 152165142160
Reconciliations -7-6-7-6
Total1,7562,0052,0801,7121,724


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity11,639,839
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520256.4%
Average Daily Volume1,882,240
Days-to-Cover Short Interest6.18
Basic Shares Quantity79,223,000
Short % of Basic Shares14.7%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/5/2025-3.5%-5.7%14.4%
8/6/2025-3.7%-7.2%-6.9%
5/7/202517.1%41.5%56.5%
1/16/20250.5%5.1%13.9%
11/6/2024-2.5%-7.5%-9.1%
8/7/2024-21.7%-24.0%-27.0%
5/8/2024-16.6%-14.5%-18.6%
2/27/202415.8%15.8%9.4%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121413
# Negative121011
Median Positive3.3%5.5%13.9%
Median Negative-8.6%-14.0%-18.6%
Max Positive17.1%41.5%56.5%
Max Negative-39.1%-39.8%-51.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/27/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/28/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/29/2025
12312024226202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241106202410-Q 9/28/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/29/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/30/2024
12312023227202410-K 12/30/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023810202310-Q 7/1/2023
3312023511202310-Q 4/1/2023
12312022301202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221110202210-Q 10/1/2022
6302022811202210-Q 7/2/2022
3312022510202210-Q 4/2/2022
12312021228202210-K 1/1/2022

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0FAHS L READEExecutive Chairman8292025Sell23.8564,6701,542,38014,727,971Form
1Molony MeganSVP, CHIEF MERCH. & MC OFFICER5162025Sell18.903,90073,71075,128Form
2Acharya RaviSVP, Chief Technology Officer5142025Sell18.7512,000225,060219,434Form