Churchill Downs (CHDN)
Market Price (11/9/2026): $97.93 | Market Cap: $6.7 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Casinos & Gaming
Churchill Downs (CHDN)
Market Price (11/9/2026): $97.93Market Cap: $6.7 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Casinos & Gaming
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.1%, FCF Yield is 7.7% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Markets & Betting. Themes include Experiential Retail, Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -58%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -83% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 67% Key risksCHDN key risks include [1] a substantial debt burden delaying major capital projects, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.1%, FCF Yield is 7.7% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Markets & Betting. Themes include Experiential Retail, Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -58%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -83% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 67% |
| Key risksCHDN key risks include [1] a substantial debt burden delaying major capital projects, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Churchill Downs (CHDN) stock has gained about 15% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q3 2026 Financial Performance Exceeded Earnings Expectations.
Churchill Downs (CHDN) reported robust financial results for its fiscal third quarter ended September 30, 2026. The company announced earnings per share (EPS) of $1.23, surpassing analyst estimates of $1.13 by $0.10. While revenue of $696 million was a slight beat over analyst expectations of $695.16 million, it marked a 1.9% increase year-over-year and represented record net revenue for the quarter. Additionally, the company achieved record Adjusted EBITDA of $264 million, with significant contributions from its Wagering Services and Solutions and Gaming segments, as well as a 10% year-over-year increase in Adjusted EBITDA from Kentucky Historical Racing Machine (HRM) properties.
2. Enhanced Shareholder Returns Through Increased Share Repurchase Program and Dividend.
In late October 2026, Churchill Downs demonstrated a commitment to returning capital to shareholders by approving a new $750 million share repurchase program. This new authorization replaced the previous $500 million program and included the approximately $306 million remaining from the prior plan. The company had already repurchased over $48 million in shares during fiscal Q3 2026 and an additional $76 million between October 1 and October 27, 2026. Furthermore, the Board of Directors declared a 7% increase in its annual cash dividend to $0.469 per share, payable in January 2027, marking the sixteenth consecutive year of dividend growth.
Show more
Churchill Downs (CHDN) stock has gained about 15% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q3 2026 Financial Performance Exceeded Earnings Expectations.
Churchill Downs (CHDN) reported robust financial results for its fiscal third quarter ended September 30, 2026. The company announced earnings per share (EPS) of $1.23, surpassing analyst estimates of $1.13 by $0.10. While revenue of $696 million was a slight beat over analyst expectations of $695.16 million, it marked a 1.9% increase year-over-year and represented record net revenue for the quarter. Additionally, the company achieved record Adjusted EBITDA of $264 million, with significant contributions from its Wagering Services and Solutions and Gaming segments, as well as a 10% year-over-year increase in Adjusted EBITDA from Kentucky Historical Racing Machine (HRM) properties.
2. Enhanced Shareholder Returns Through Increased Share Repurchase Program and Dividend.
In late October 2026, Churchill Downs demonstrated a commitment to returning capital to shareholders by approving a new $750 million share repurchase program. This new authorization replaced the previous $500 million program and included the approximately $306 million remaining from the prior plan. The company had already repurchased over $48 million in shares during fiscal Q3 2026 and an additional $76 million between October 1 and October 27, 2026. Furthermore, the Board of Directors declared a 7% increase in its annual cash dividend to $0.469 per share, payable in January 2027, marking the sixteenth consecutive year of dividend growth.
3. Positive Strategic Developments and Growth Initiatives.
Churchill Downs advanced several strategic initiatives, providing a positive outlook. The company plans to announce executed transactions for nine regional gaming properties by the end of 2026, with the proceeds targeted to significantly reduce bank leverage to below 3.0x. The launch of the Thoroughbred Championship Series with the New York Racing Association (NYRA), commencing in 2027, promises incremental prize money and a new Oaks Division. Additionally, local approval was secured for the relocation and expansion of the Rosie's Collinsville HRM venue in Henry County, Virginia, to 150 machines. The acquisition of the remaining 49% of United Tote Company was completed on August 3, 2026, and NYRA's tote services agreement was extended through 2035, further strengthening the company's wagering services segment.
Show less
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 16.2% change in CHDN stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/8/2026 was primarily driven by a 9.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 84.30 | 97.94 | 16.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,992 | 3,005 | 0.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.8% | 15.1% | 9.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.3 | 15.1 | 5.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 70 | 70 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 16.2% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CHDN | 16.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | -1.6% | 4.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | 1.3% | 35.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -3.0% change in CHDN stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/8/2026 was primarily driven by a -17.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 100.99 | 97.94 | -3.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,946 | 3,005 | 2.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.2% | 15.1% | 14.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 18.2 | 15.1 | -17.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 70 | 70 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -3.0% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CHDN | -3.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.6% | 3.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | -0.5% | 28.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -0.9% change in CHDN stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/8/2026 was primarily driven by a -12.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 98.82 | 97.94 | -0.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,884 | 3,005 | 4.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.0% | 15.1% | 8.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.1 | 15.1 | -12.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 70 | 70 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -0.9% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CHDN | -0.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.7% | 12.5% |
| Sector (XLY) | -1.4% | 25.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -9.9% change in CHDN stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/8/2026 was primarily driven by a -33.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 108.74 | 97.94 | -9.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,381 | 3,005 | 26.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.2% | 15.1% | -0.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 22.7 | 15.1 | -33.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 75 | 70 | 7.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -9.9% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CHDN | -9.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 81.9% | 33.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | 58.2% | 37.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CHDN Return | 24% | -12% | 28% | -1% | -14% | -14% | 2% |
| Peers Return | 8% | -40% | 52% | -10% | -8% | -5% | -22% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CHDN Win Rate | 33% | 33% | 58% | 67% | 50% | 45% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 33% | 53% | 48% | 63% | 49% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 45% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CHDN Max Drawdown | -30% | -29% | -28% | -17% | -35% | -35% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -42% | -51% | -32% | -34% | -40% | -37% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: PENN, CZR, MGM, BYD, DKNG. See CHDN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/6/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CHDN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -17.2% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.7% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -26.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 218 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -62.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 169.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 146 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -20.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 51 days | 105 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -13.1% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.0% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 22 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -21.9% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.1% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 176 days | 125 days |
In The Past
Churchill Downs's stock fell -6.0% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 6.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | CHDN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -26.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 218 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -62.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 169.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 146 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -20.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 51 days | 105 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -21.9% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.1% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 176 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -59.8% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 148.8% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1047 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Churchill Downs's stock fell -6.0% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 6.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Churchill Downs (CHDN)
Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) is a diversified entertainment company primarily engaged in racing, online wagering, and casino gaming across the United States. While famously associated with its namesake horse racing track, the company has expanded significantly beyond live racing events to become a broad-based gaming operator.
The company's offerings span three core segments. Its "Live and Historical Racing" segment includes owning and operating pari-mutuel gaming venues, particularly those featuring historical racing machines (HRMs), and providing comprehensive horse racing content like live streams, replays, and statistical data. Churchill Downs also manufactures and operates pari-mutuel wagering systems for other industry businesses. The "TwinSpires" segment represents its prominent online platform for wagering on horse racing, sports, and iGaming, complemented by retail sportsbooks. Lastly, its "Gaming" segment encompasses traditional casino operations, featuring a substantial number of slot machines, video lottery terminals, and table games across several states.
Churchill Downs primarily serves a wide array of customers, including recreational bettors, horse racing enthusiasts, and casino patrons. Its market reach extends from visitors to its physical racing and casino locations to a national online audience through its digital wagering platform, TwinSpires, catering to those interested in horse racing, sports betting, and various casino games.
```AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are a few analogies for Churchill Downs (CHDN):
- It's like DraftKings or FanDuel, but they also own a network of regional casinos and the world's most famous horse race, the Kentucky Derby.
- Imagine a regional casino operator similar to Boyd Gaming, that also runs a major online betting platform and operates iconic horse racing venues.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Live and Historical Racing Operations: Manages and operates physical venues for horse racing, including historical racing machines.
- Online Wagering (TwinSpires): Provides an online platform for betting on horse racing, sports, and iGaming.
- Casino Gaming: Operates physical casinos with slot machines, video lottery terminals, and table games.
- Retail Sports Betting: Offers in-person sports wagering through dedicated retail sportsbooks.
- Horse Racing Data & Media: Delivers streaming video of races, replays, and statistical information for horse racing.
- Pari-Mutuel Wagering System Solutions: Develops and operates wagering systems for other pari-mutuel businesses.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Churchill Downs (symbol: CHDN) primarily sells its services directly to individual consumers rather than to other companies. Its major customer categories include:
-
Horse Racing Patrons and Bettors: This category includes individuals who attend live horse racing events, visit the company's pari-mutuel gaming entertainment venues with historical racing machines, and those who use the TwinSpires online platform for horse racing wagering, streaming, and handicapping information.
-
Casino and Gaming Enthusiasts: These customers frequent Churchill Downs' owned and operated casinos to play slot machines, video lottery terminals, and various table games.
-
Sports Bettors: Individuals who place wagers on sporting events either through the TwinSpires online sports betting platform or at the company's retail sportsbooks.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Light & Wonder (LNW)
- International Game Technology PLC (IGT)
AI Analysis | Feedback
William C. Carstanjen, Chief Executive Officer
William C. Carstanjen was named Churchill Downs Incorporated's Chief Executive Officer in August 2014 and appointed to the Board of Directors in July 2015. He joined CDI in July 2005, serving in various leadership roles including President and Chief Operating Officer, Chief Operating Officer, and Executive Vice President, General Counsel, and Chief Development Officer. Before joining CDI, he was an executive with General Electric Company and began his career as an attorney specializing in mergers and acquisitions, corporate finance, and corporate governance at Cravath, Swaine & Moore LLP. He has been instrumental in leading CDI's diversification strategy into online wagering and regional casino gaming, as well as the growth of the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby events.
Marcia A. Dall, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Marcia A. Dall was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Churchill Downs Incorporated in October 2015. She brings a broad business background as CFO of a large publicly traded company and over 30 years of domestic and international financial experience. Her responsibilities encompass capital management, financial reporting, treasury, investor relations, financial planning and analysis, financial compliance, and enterprise risk management.
William E. Mudd, President and Chief Operating Officer
William E. Mudd was named President and Chief Operating Officer of Churchill Downs Incorporated in September 2015. He initially joined CDI in 2007 as the company's Executive Vice President and CFO before being promoted to President and CFO in 2014. His career commenced at General Electric, where he gained significant leadership experience, including serving as CFO of Supply Chain, IT, and Technology Finance for GE's Consumer and Industrial Europe, Middle East, and Africa division.
Bradley K. Blackwell, Executive Vice President and General Counsel
Bradley K. Blackwell joined Churchill Downs Incorporated in 2005 and has held numerous roles of increasing responsibility, including Corporate Counsel, Vice President, Legal & Regulatory Affairs for TwinSpires, and Vice President, Legal and Vice President, Operations for CDI. Prior to his tenure at CDI, he served as Assistant General Counsel and Secretary for Michaels Stores, Inc.
Maureen Adams, Executive Vice President, Gaming Operations
Maureen Adams serves as the Executive Vice President, Gaming Operations for Churchill Downs Incorporated. It was announced that she will retire from this position effective December 31, 2025.
```AI Analysis | Feedback
Churchill Downs (CHDN) faces several key risks inherent to the entertainment, racing, and gaming industries, with regulatory challenges and intense competition being particularly prominent.
- Regulatory Risks and Compliance: The company operates in a heavily regulated industry, making it susceptible to stringent and evolving federal, state, and local regulations. A significant and immediate risk involves a dispute with the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority (HISA) over unpaid fees, which could lead to an unprecedented blocking of interstate simulcast wagering for the Kentucky Derby and other Churchill Downs races. Such a move would materially reduce handle and tax revenue, especially for its online wagering platform, TwinSpires. Beyond this specific conflict, changes in gaming laws, new interpretations of existing regulations, and the need to obtain and maintain various licenses pose ongoing operational and financial challenges. The potential legalization and expansion of iGaming in various states also present a threat to Churchill Downs' land-based historical racing machine (HRM) and casino operations, with the company actively opposing such expansions in some markets and even filing lawsuits.
- Intense Competition and Shifting Consumer Preferences: Churchill Downs operates in a highly competitive landscape, facing rivals from traditional land-based casinos, a growing number of online gaming platforms, and other racing venues. The emergence of new market entrants and the expansion of existing competitors continually vie for market share, potentially eroding Churchill Downs' customer base. There is an ongoing challenge to adapt to changing consumer tastes, as evidenced by a gradual decline in attendance and inflation-adjusted gambling revenues across the horse racing sector. This necessitates continuous innovation and diversification to maintain market leadership and customer engagement.
- Economic Conditions and Discretionary Spending: The company's financial performance is sensitive to broader economic conditions, as consumer confidence and discretionary spending directly influence attendance at its venues and wagering volumes. Economic downturns or uncertainties can lead to reduced engagement in entertainment and gaming activities. Macroeconomic factors, including tariff risks, have already caused Churchill Downs to pause significant capital spending plans aimed at modernization and expansion, which could impact future growth trajectories if these conditions persist.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The intense and rapidly escalating competition from numerous well-funded new entrants and established players in the online sports betting and iGaming market, directly threatening the market share and profitability of its TwinSpires platform.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the addressable market sizes for Churchill Downs' main products and services:
- Historical Racing Machines (HRMs): The handle for historical horse racing machines (HHRs) in Kentucky was approximately $10.5 billion in fiscal year 2025.
- Online Horse Racing Wagering: The total pari-mutuel wagering handle on United States races, which includes online wagering, was approximately $11.26 billion in 2023. This market size is for the U.S. region.
- Online Sports Betting: The U.S. online sports betting market size was estimated at USD 17.94 billion in 2024. This market size is for the U.S. region.
- iGaming: The U.S. iGaming market is projected to reach total revenues of $26.8 billion in 2025. This market size is for the U.S. region.
- Casino Gaming (Land-based): null
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Churchill Downs (CHDN) over the next 2-3 years:
- Expansion and Development of Historical Racing Machine (HRM) Venues: Churchill Downs is actively expanding its footprint in historical racing machines and new gaming venues. Recent openings include Owensboro Racing and Gaming in Western Kentucky (February 2025), Roseshire Gaming Parlor in Henrico County, Virginia (September 2025), and Marshall Yards Racing & Gaming in Southwestern Kentucky (February 2026). The company also plans to invest in the development of Rockingham Grand Casino in Salem, New Hampshire, with a projected mid-2027 opening, and a new HRM facility in Calvert City, Kentucky. These expansions, coupled with the growth of existing HRM venues in Kentucky and Virginia, are expected to significantly contribute to revenue.
- Enhancements and Increased Revenue from the Kentucky Derby and Racetrack Operations: Churchill Downs is undertaking a multi-year series of capital projects at the Churchill Downs Racetrack, representing the largest expansion and renovation in its history, with an investment of approximately $900 million between 2025 and 2028. These projects, including the Skye Terrace renovation, the Conservatory Project, and the Infield General Admission Project, aim to enhance guest experiences, increase premium hospitality options, and create new ticket upgrade opportunities. These improvements are anticipated to drive incremental adjusted EBITDA from the Kentucky Derby, with expectations of an additional $15 million to $20 million in 2026. Furthermore, a new 7-year contract with NBC and the prime-time broadcast of the Kentucky Oaks starting in 2026 are expected to boost visibility, wagering, and licensing/sponsorship revenues.
- Growth of the TwinSpires Online Wagering Platform and Exacta Business: The company intends to continue growing its core TwinSpires horse racing business by offering a premier wagering experience for horse racing players, particularly VIPs. Additionally, the Exacta business, which provides historical racing machine systems, is expected to see continued growth, driven by both Churchill Downs' owned HRM properties and third-party customers. Churchill Downs also plans to leverage TwinSpires' expertise to become a leading B2B distributor of horse racing content to other online sports wagering platforms, aiming to reach millions of new customers. This strategy is anticipated to generate incremental content fees and wagering revenue.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- A new $500 million share repurchase program was approved in July 2025, replacing a prior $500 million program from March 2025.
- Churchill Downs returned over $456 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends during 2025.
- In 2024, the company returned over $218 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends.
Outbound Investments
- The company completed the acquisition of substantially all of the assets of Peninsula Pacific Entertainment (P2E) for approximately $2.75 billion in November 2022, including assets in Virginia and New York, and the operations of Hard Rock Sioux City in Iowa.
- Churchill Downs acquired Exacta Systems, LLC, a provider of historical horse racing technology, for $250 million in cash in August 2023.
- In July 2025, Churchill Downs agreed to acquire a 90% equity stake in the Casino Salem project in southern New Hampshire for $180 million.
Capital Expenditures
- Project capital expenditures are expected to be approximately $180 million to $220 million in 2026, primarily for Kentucky Derby capital projects and the Rockingham Grand Casino development in Salem, New Hampshire.
- Capital expenditures for the fiscal year ending December 2023 peaked at $676.5 million.
- In 2025, maintenance capital was $70 million, and project capital expenditures were $205 million.
Peer Outperformance in Casinos & Gaming
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHDN | Churchill Downs | 8.1% | 15.1x | 0.9% | -15.0% | -16.4% | — |
| RRR | Red Rock Resorts | 6.3% | 24.0x | -13.8% | 31.1% | 22.1% | +38pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education Services | 14 | -14.6% | 32.0% | 43.4% | CVSA 236% · GHC 113% · LRN 109% |
| Homebuilding | 17 | 2.8% | 30.2% | 31.1% | PHM 176% · TOL 159% · GRBK 156% |
| Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines | 21 | 19.1% | 64.5% | 10.0% | RCL 261% · MAR 158% · HLT 148% |
| Automotive Retail | 17 | -4.5% | 15.1% | 9.6% | MUSA 202% · PAG 116% · ORLY 112% |
| Home Improvement Retail | 5 | -4.8% | 5.1% | 2.6% | HD 6% · LOW 6% · FND -62% |
| Home Furnishings | 3 | 3.8% | 80.9% | -1.0% | SGI 51% · MHK -14% |
| Footwear | 9 | 75.5% | 91.6% | -14.0% | DECK 25% · SHOO -11% · CROX -14% |
| Restaurants | 36 | 1.5% | -2.3% | -20.8% | EAT 372% · CAKE 166% · TXRH 117% |
| Specialized Consumer Services | 10 | -12.1% | 33.5% | -24.5% | FTDR 176% · HRB 153% · ADT 24% |
| Distributors | 4 | -6.7% | -16.2% | -25.6% | ARMK 98% · GPC 5% · POOL -56% |
| Computer & Electronics Retail | 3 | 32.8% | 83.4% | -25.8% | BBY -3% · GME -54% |
| Leisure Products | 14 | -18.0% | -3.8% | -35.5% | GOLF 51% · HAS 49% · BC -15% |
| Leisure Facilities | 12 | 16.8% | 8.8% | -39.5% | OSW 164% · LTH 142% · PLNT -37% |
| Household Appliances | 18 | 36.3% | 22.9% | -40.0% | WHR -82% |
| Automotive Parts & Equipment | 37 | -13.5% | -21.6% | -46.0% | GTX 193% · PATK 65% · ALV 39% |
| Broadline Retail | 12 | -4.4% | 23.6% | -46.1% | EBAY 81% · AMZN 49% · OLLI 25% |
| Apparel Retail | 27 | -5.5% | 4.9% | -48.7% | ANF 229% · VSXY 115% · TJX 108% |
| Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods | 29 | 14.6% | 23.7% | -50.6% | TPR 256% · RL 222% · KTB 56% |
| Casinos & Gaming ← | 21 | -25.1% | -15.4% | -51.0% | BYD 25% · RRR 22% · LVS 5% |
| Other Specialty Retail | 25 | -5.3% | -7.9% | -58.5% | ULTA 66% · ASO 51% · ARHS 23% |
| Automobile Manufacturers | 8 | -57.1% | -42.1% | -70.4% | GM 51% · TSLA -8% · F -16% |
| Consumer Electronics | 11 | -31.6% | -31.4% | -80.7% | GRMN 116% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 30.77 |
| Mkt Cap | 6.4 |
| Rev LTM | 6,845 |
| Op Inc LTM | 766 |
| FCF LTM | 392 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 276 |
| CFO LTM | 745 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 796 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -10.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 15.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 6.4 |
| P/S | 0.9 |
| P/Op Inc | 6.3 |
| P/EBIT | 6.6 |
| P/E | -0.0 |
| P/CFO | 6.9 |
| Total Yield | 3.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.6% |
| D/E | 2.2 |
| Net D/E | 2.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 10.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -10.8% |
| 6M Rtn | -3.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -0.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | -19.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 13.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -1.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -2.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -8.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -84.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Live and Historical Racing | 1,395 | 1,226 | 1,047 | 615 | 409 |
| Gaming | 1,043 | 1,039 | 969 | 756 | 695 |
| Wagering Services and Solutions | 488 | 470 | 445 | 436 | 451 |
| All Other | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 41 |
| Total | 2,926 | 2,734 | 2,462 | 1,810 | 1,597 |
| $ Mil | 2012 | 2005 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gaming | 46 | ||||
| On-line Business | 32 | ||||
| Racing Operations | 30 | ||||
| Other Investments | -4 | ||||
| Corporate | -7 | ||||
| Arlington Park | 4 | 5 | 9 | -1 | |
| CDSN | 16 | 17 | |||
| Calder Race Course | 7 | 12 | 14 | 13 | |
| Hoosier Park | 0 | 6 | 5 | 5 | |
| Kentucky Operations | 21 | 6 | |||
| Hollywood Park | 7 | 17 | 14 | ||
| Other Operations | -0 | 1 | 6 | ||
| Churchill Downs | 24 | 18 | |||
| Ellis Park | -1 | -0 | |||
| Total | 97 | 49 | 53 | 68 | 55 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Live and Historical Racing | 4,143 | 3,873 | 3,345 | 683 | 663 |
| Gaming | 1,954 | 1,921 | 1,824 | 1,003 | 950 |
| All Other | 718 | 688 | 749 | 1,024 | 816 |
| Wagering Services and Solutions | 461 | 474 | 288 | 272 | 257 |
| Total | 7,276 | 6,956 | 6,207 | 2,982 | 2,686 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $97.94 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 6.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/29/1993 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -16.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $83.78 | $88.00 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | 16.9% | 11.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 41.4% | 36.5% |
| Downside Capture | 9.94 | 41.92 |
| Upside Capture | 89.49 | 36.89 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 3.0% | 13.3% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.43 | 0.33 | 0.30 | 0.17 | 0.40 | 0.71 |
| Up Beta | 1.98 | -0.43 | 0.18 | -0.11 | 0.53 | 0.72 |
| Down Beta | -0.74 | -1.41 | -1.06 | -0.39 | 0.59 | 0.76 |
| Up Capture | 172% | 137% | 98% | 34% | 18% | 26% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 15 | 23 | 34 | 58 | 118 | 370 |
| Down Capture | -204% | 58% | 36% | 60% | 44% | 93% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 20 | 30 | 68 | 131 | 380 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CHDN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHDN | -0.7% | 36.5% | 0.04 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | -1.9% | 19.8% | -0.22 | 26.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 9.5% | 13.6% | 0.40 | 12.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 1.6% | 28.7% | 0.05 | 5.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 38.4% | 21.2% | 1.42 | -10.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.3% | 14.2% | 0.51 | 33.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -27.2% | 43.6% | -0.61 | 6.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CHDN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHDN | -2.8% | 33.4% | -0.03 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 4.0% | 24.2% | 0.12 | 50.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.3% | 17.3% | 0.48 | 47.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.5% | 19.1% | 0.74 | 2.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.1% | 19.6% | 0.30 | 4.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.3% | 18.9% | -0.04 | 42.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.0% | 51.6% | 0.26 | 22.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CHDN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHDN | 16.2% | 38.1% | 0.51 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.8% | 22.3% | 0.52 | 57.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.0% | 18.0% | 0.70 | 57.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.9% | 16.5% | 0.59 | 2.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 18.1% | 0.33 | 17.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.9% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 53.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.0% | 66.3% | 1.00 | 17.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 11/6/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/28/2026 | 11.2% | 19.6% | |
| 7/29/2026 | -6.6% | -2.4% | -2.3% |
| 4/22/2026 | 10.1% | 13.7% | -3.8% |
| 2/25/2026 | -6.0% | -5.6% | -8.9% |
| 10/22/2025 | 7.8% | 4.6% | 8.5% |
| 7/23/2025 | 4.2% | 0.9% | -6.1% |
| 4/23/2025 | -16.2% | -13.9% | -11.3% |
| 2/19/2025 | -0.4% | -4.0% | -6.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 14 | 11 |
| # Negative | 12 | 10 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 4.6% | 4.9% | 7.3% |
| Median Negative | -3.9% | -3.9% | -6.1% |
| Max Positive | 14.1% | 19.6% | 11.3% |
| Max Negative | -16.2% | -13.9% | -13.1% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/28/2026 | 11.2% | 19.6% | |
| 7/29/2026 | -6.6% | -2.4% | -2.3% |
| 4/22/2026 | 10.1% | 13.7% | -3.8% |
| 2/25/2026 | -6.0% | -5.6% | -8.9% |
| 10/22/2025 | 7.8% | 4.6% | 8.5% |
| 7/23/2025 | 4.2% | 0.9% | -6.1% |
| 4/23/2025 | -16.2% | -13.9% | -11.3% |
| 2/19/2025 | -0.4% | -4.0% | -6.3% |
| 10/23/2024 | 4.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% |
| 7/24/2024 | 0.5% | 4.6% | -0.3% |
| 4/24/2024 | 4.7% | 5.2% | 9.1% |
| 2/21/2024 | 2.1% | 3.8% | 1.0% |
| 10/25/2023 | -0.3% | 0.4% | 11.3% |
| 7/26/2023 | -9.7% | -10.4% | -6.0% |
| 4/26/2023 | 14.1% | 17.7% | 11.1% |
| 2/22/2023 | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.8% |
| 10/26/2022 | -5.1% | -2.4% | 7.3% |
| 7/27/2022 | -1.4% | -3.7% | -3.1% |
| 4/27/2022 | 6.7% | 5.7% | 0.8% |
| 2/23/2022 | 2.2% | 14.1% | 6.6% |
| 10/27/2021 | -4.8% | -6.6% | -7.9% |
| 7/28/2021 | -0.9% | -2.8% | 7.6% |
| 4/21/2021 | -2.8% | 0.2% | -13.1% |
| 2/24/2021 | -3.0% | -1.0% | -4.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 14 | 11 |
| # Negative | 12 | 10 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 4.6% | 4.9% | 7.3% |
| Median Negative | -3.9% | -3.9% | -6.1% |
| Max Positive | 14.1% | 19.6% | 11.3% |
| Max Negative | -16.2% | -13.9% | -13.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/28/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/22/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/22/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/23/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/28/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/22/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/22/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/23/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/23/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/27/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/28/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/21/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/24/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/28/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/29/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 04/29/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/26/2020 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 11/2/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 10/28/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Planned Spend - Churchill Downs Racetrack Victory Run | Reported | 40.00 Mil | 42.50 Mil | 45.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Planned Spend - New Hampshire Rockingham Grand Casino | Reported | 45.00 Mil | 47.50 Mil | 50.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Planned Spend - All Other Projects | Reported | 15.00 Mil | 17.50 Mil | 20.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Planned Spend - Completed Projects | Reported | 60.00 Mil | 62.50 Mil | 65.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Annual Dividend Per Share | Reported | 0.47 | ||||||
| 2026 Dividend Growth | Reported | 7.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 160.00 Mil | 170.00 Mil | 180.00 Mil | -15.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 200.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Share Repurchase Program Authorization | Reported | 750.00 Mil | ||||||
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/29/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 180.00 Mil | 200.00 Mil | 220.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 200.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/22/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 180.00 Mil | 200.00 Mil | 220.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 200.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/25/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 180.00 Mil | 200.00 Mil | 220.00 Mil | -9.1% | Lower New | Guidance: 220.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 9, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newbrook Capital Advisors LP | $30.4 Mil | 3.8% | 20 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Sourcerock Group LLC | $14.4 Mil | 0.8% | 36 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Benchstone Capital Management LP | $10.4 Mil | 1.2% | 43 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Alua Capital Management LP | $48.5 Mil | 5.3% | 14 | TRIM -24.6% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Hudson Way Capital Management LLC | $78.2 Mil | 7.5% | 16 | TRIM -16.1% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Casinos & Gaming Resources |
| Casino.org News |
| Global Gaming Business |
| CDC Gaming Reports |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.