Burlington Stores (BURL)
Market Price (8/1/2026): $368.46 | Market Cap: $23.1 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Apparel Retail
Burlington Stores (BURL)
Market Price (8/1/2026): $368.46Market Cap: $23.1 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Apparel Retail
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Value Retail. Themes include Off-Price Business Model, Discount Merchandising, and Inventory Liquidation. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.0%, Dist 3Y High is -1.0% | Key risksBURL key risks include [1] reduced discretionary spending from its core low-income customer base due to economic pressures and [2] supply chain disruptions threatening its opportunistic buying model, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Value Retail. Themes include Off-Price Business Model, Discount Merchandising, and Inventory Liquidation. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.0%, Dist 3Y High is -1.0% |
| Key risksBURL key risks include [1] reduced discretionary spending from its core low-income customer base due to economic pressures and [2] supply chain disruptions threatening its opportunistic buying model, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Burlington Stores (BURL) stock has gained about 15% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Burlington Stores reported strong fiscal Q1 2026 earnings that significantly surpassed analyst expectations and raised its full-year guidance. The company posted an adjusted EPS of $2.10, exceeding estimates by over 20%. Total sales increased by 14% to $2.85 billion, with comparable store sales rising 6%, notably above the company's own guidance of 2%-4%. Following this performance, Burlington Stores raised its fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $11.45-$11.80, implying 13%-16% year-over-year growth.
2. The company's strategic initiatives, including its "Elevation Strategy" and "Store Experience 2.0" program, drove operational efficiencies and margin expansion. These initiatives contributed to a 30-basis-point improvement in gross margin, reaching 44.1%, and a 20-basis-point expansion in adjusted EBIT margin during fiscal Q1 2026.
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Burlington Stores (BURL) stock has gained about 15% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Burlington Stores reported strong fiscal Q1 2026 earnings that significantly surpassed analyst expectations and raised its full-year guidance. The company posted an adjusted EPS of $2.10, exceeding estimates by over 20%. Total sales increased by 14% to $2.85 billion, with comparable store sales rising 6%, notably above the company's own guidance of 2%-4%. Following this performance, Burlington Stores raised its fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $11.45-$11.80, implying 13%-16% year-over-year growth.
2. The company's strategic initiatives, including its "Elevation Strategy" and "Store Experience 2.0" program, drove operational efficiencies and margin expansion. These initiatives contributed to a 30-basis-point improvement in gross margin, reaching 44.1%, and a 20-basis-point expansion in adjusted EBIT margin during fiscal Q1 2026.
3. Positive analyst sentiment and upgraded price targets reinforced investor confidence in Burlington Stores. Following the strong fiscal Q1 2026 results and updated guidance, the stock maintained a "Moderate Buy" to "Buy" consensus rating from Wall Street analysts. Several firms, including Jefferies Financial Group and Bank of America, reiterated "Buy" ratings and raised their price targets, indicating continued bullish outlooks for the company.
4. Favorable industry conditions for discount retailers provided a tailwind for Burlington Stores. The "Retail - Discount Stores" industry demonstrated strong performance, ranking in the top 9% of all industries. This broader trend saw investors rotating into resilient, value-oriented consumer names amidst general macroeconomic uncertainties, benefiting off-price retailers like Burlington Stores.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 15.1% change in BURL stock from 4/30/2026 to 7/31/2026 was primarily driven by a 12.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 7312026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 320.01 | 368.48 | 15.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 11,567 | 11,919 | 3.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.3% | 5.2% | -0.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 32.9 | 37.1 | 12.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 63 | 63 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 15.1% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 7/31/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BURL | 15.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.9% | 22.1% |
| Sector (XLY) | -1.9% | 34.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 24.5% change in BURL stock from 1/31/2026 to 7/31/2026 was primarily driven by a 11.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 7312026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 295.86 | 368.48 | 24.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 11,197 | 11,919 | 6.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 33.2 | 37.1 | 11.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 63 | 63 | 0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 24.5% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 7/31/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BURL | 24.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.3% | 35.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | -4.0% | 42.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 35.0% change in BURL stock from 7/31/2025 to 7/31/2026 was primarily driven by a 13.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 7312026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 272.96 | 368.48 | 35.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 10,777 | 11,919 | 10.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.9% | 5.2% | 7.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 32.7 | 37.1 | 13.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 63 | 63 | 0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 35.0% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 7/31/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BURL | 35.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 19.2% | 30.7% |
| Sector (XLY) | 5.5% | 32.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 107.5% change in BURL stock from 7/31/2023 to 7/31/2026 was primarily driven by a 89.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 7312023 | 7312026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 177.62 | 368.48 | 107.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,910 | 11,919 | 33.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.8% | 5.2% | 89.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 46.8 | 37.1 | -20.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 65 | 63 | 3.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 107.5% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 7/31/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BURL | 107.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 68.9% | 42.2% |
| Sector (XLY) | 36.7% | 43.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BURL Return | 11% | -30% | -4% | 47% | 1% | 29% | 42% |
| Peers Return | 5% | -16% | 25% | 7% | 15% | 12% | 53% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 98% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BURL Win Rate | 42% | 42% | 42% | 58% | 50% | 71% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 42% | 63% | 53% | 58% | 54% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BURL Max Drawdown | -25% | -62% | -50% | -23% | -27% | -18% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -28% | -41% | -27% | -24% | -30% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: TJX, ROST, KSS, OLLI, TGT. See BURL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/31/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BURL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -10.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.2% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 15 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.1% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -36.6% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 293 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -62.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 163.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 788 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -51.4% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 106.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 280 days | 140 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -15.9% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.9% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 18 days | 6 days |
In The Past
Burlington Stores's stock fell -10.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 12.2% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | BURL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.1% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -36.6% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 293 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -62.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 163.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 788 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -51.4% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 106.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 280 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -24.5% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.5% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 74 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Burlington Stores's stock fell -10.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 12.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Burlington Stores (BURL)
Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) operates as a prominent off-price retailer of branded merchandise across the United States and Puerto Rico. The company's core business involves offering a wide assortment of fashion-focused products at discounted prices, appealing to value-conscious consumers seeking popular brands.
Burlington's extensive product offerings include women's ready-to-wear apparel, menswear, youth apparel, footwear, accessories, and coats. Beyond clothing, the company diversifies its inventory to include toys, gifts, baby products, home goods, and beauty items, providing a comprehensive shopping destination. As of January 2022, Burlington operated 837 stores under the Burlington Stores name across 45 states and Puerto Rico, solidifying its significant market presence.
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Burlington is like TJ Maxx or Marshalls for discounted brand-name apparel and home goods.
It's an off-price retailer much like Ross Dress for Less, offering a 'treasure hunt' for bargains across fashion, accessories, and home items.
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- Women's Ready-to-Wear Apparel: Fashion-focused clothing for women.
- Menswear: Clothing and accessories for men.
- Youth Apparel: Clothing designed for children and teenagers.
- Footwear: Shoes and other items worn on the feet.
- Accessories: Complementary items such as handbags, jewelry, and scarves.
- Toys: Products intended for children's play.
- Gifts: Various items suitable for presenting to others.
- Coats: Outerwear for warmth or style.
- Baby Products: Merchandise for infants and young children.
- Home Products: Items for household use and decoration.
- Beauty Products: Cosmetics, skincare, and other personal care items.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) sells primarily to individual consumers through its network of retail stores.
The company serves the following categories of customers:
- Value-seeking consumers: Individuals and families who prioritize affordability and actively seek significant discounts on branded apparel, accessories, home goods, and other merchandise. These customers are drawn to Burlington's off-price model, looking for deals and savings.
- Families shopping for diverse needs: Customers who utilize Burlington as a comprehensive shopping destination to purchase items for multiple family members (men, women, youth) and across various product categories such as clothing, baby products, home goods, toys, and gifts, leveraging the convenience and value of a single store.
- Trend-aware shoppers on a budget: Consumers who are interested in current fashion trends and popular branded items but prefer to purchase them at discounted prices. They frequent Burlington for its ever-changing inventory of fashion-focused merchandise, allowing them to stay stylish without paying full price.
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Michael O'Sullivan, Chief Executive Officer
Mr. O'Sullivan joined Burlington as Chief Executive Officer in September 2019. Before Burlington, he spent 16 years at Ross Stores, an off-price retailer, rising to become their President and Chief Operating Officer in 2009. At Ross, he played a leading role in managing major functional areas including Stores, Loss Prevention, Supply Chain, Finance, IT, Human Resources, Merchandise Allocations, Merchant Support, and Marketing. He also served on Ross's board of directors from 2014 to April 2019. Prior to Ross, Mr. O'Sullivan was a Partner at Bain & Company from 1991 to 2003, where he worked with companies in the retail industry on business strategy and performance improvement.
Kristin Wolfe, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Ms. Wolfe has served as Burlington's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer since August 2022. Before joining Burlington, she held various financial, strategic, and operational roles at Ross Stores, Inc. Most recently, she was Group Senior Vice President, Corporate Finance at Ross Stores from 2021 to May 2022. Her other roles at Ross between 2009 and 2021 included Senior Vice President, Store Operations; Group Vice President, Store Finance and Strategy; and Vice President, Store Finance and Strategy. Prior to her career with Ross Stores, Ms. Wolfe spent approximately 10 years at Bain & Company.
Jennifer Vecchio, Group President and Chief Merchandising Officer
Ms. Vecchio has served as Group President and Chief Merchandising Officer since July 2021. She previously held roles as President and Chief Merchandising Officer (April 2019 – July 2021) and Chief Merchandising Officer/Principal (January 2017 – April 2019). Ms. Vecchio joined Burlington as Executive Vice President and Chief Merchandising Officer in May 2015, after providing consulting services to the merchandising organization from January 2014 to May 2015. From 1997 to June 2011, she held various merchandising positions at Ross Stores, including Executive Vice President of Merchandising. She began her merchandising career at Macy's in 1988.
Travis Marquette, President and Chief Operating Officer
Mr. Marquette has served as President and Chief Operating Officer of Burlington Stores since October 2021. Before joining Burlington, he was the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Ross Stores from March 2021 through July 2021. Prior to that, he also served as Ross Stores' Group Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer (2019-2021), Group Senior Vice President and Deputy Chief Financial Officer (2018-2019), and Senior Vice President, Finance (2017-2018). Mr. Marquette previously held various consulting and management roles over a 12-year period with Bain & Company, Carter's Inc., and PricewaterhouseCoopers.
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- Macroeconomic Conditions and Consumer Spending: Burlington Stores' performance is significantly influenced by overall economic conditions, including inflationary pressures, potential economic downturns, and shifts in consumer spending habits. As an off-price retailer, the company's ability to attract and retain customers is highly dependent on consumers' disposable income and their demand for value.
- Highly Competitive Retail Market and Operational Execution: The company operates within a highly fragmented and competitive retail landscape, facing continuous challenges to maintain its competitive edge and adapt to evolving consumer preferences. This also encompasses risks associated with the successful execution of its growth strategy, which relies on expanding its store base and opening new distribution centers, as well as managing costs, inventory, and supply chain efficiencies.
- Supply Chain Disruptions and Tariff Impacts: Burlington Stores is exposed to risks related to potential disruptions in its supply chain, which can affect product availability and costs. Additionally, while management anticipates easing pressure from tariffs in 2026, tariffs have historically impacted product assortment and margins, and such pressures could re-emerge or intensify.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The clear emerging threat for Burlington Stores is the rapid growth and increasing consumer acceptance of the recommerce (second-hand) market for branded apparel and accessories. Online platforms and apps for buying and selling pre-owned fashion (e.g., Poshmark, ThredUp, The RealReal, Vinted) are gaining significant traction, particularly among younger, value-conscious, and sustainability-minded consumers. These platforms offer branded merchandise at deeply discounted prices, directly competing with off-price retailers like Burlington for consumer spending. This trend represents a fundamental shift in how consumers access value-priced fashion, moving beyond new overstock towards a circular economy for goods, potentially impacting Burlington's ability to attract consumers seeking affordable branded items and the overall demand for new, discounted merchandise.
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Expected Revenue Growth Drivers for Burlington Stores (BURL)
Burlington Stores (BURL) anticipates future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through a multi-faceted strategy focused on expanding its physical footprint, enhancing the in-store experience, optimizing merchandise offerings, and improving localized assortments. Key drivers include:
- New Store Openings and Expansion: Burlington Stores is executing an aggressive store expansion plan. The company expects to open approximately 110 net new stores in fiscal year 2026, with a significant portion of these openings planned for the first half of the year. This is part of a longer-term strategy aiming for roughly 500 net new stores from 2024 through 2028, with the potential to expand its total store base to 2,000 locations. This extensive physical growth is a primary component of its projected low double-digit average annual sales growth through 2028.
- Comparable Store Sales Growth: The company forecasts an increase in comparable store sales, projecting a 2% to 4% growth for the first quarter of fiscal 2026 and a 1% to 3% increase for the full fiscal year 2026. Management has expressed a "bullish" outlook on 2026 sales, citing customer resilience, a more favorable tax refund season, and easier comparisons from prior periods that were impacted by tariff-related assortment gaps. Longer-term projections suggest average mid-single-digit comparable store sales growth through 2028.
- Burlington 2.0 and Store Experience 2.0 Initiatives: Burlington is actively implementing its "Burlington 2.0" strategic initiatives, which are designed to transform the company into a high-performing off-price retailer. These initiatives focus on strengthening execution across merchandising, store operations, real estate, and the supply chain. A key aspect is the completion of "Store Experience 2.0" remodels, which involve refreshed store layouts and a new logo, aiming to provide a more enjoyable and efficient shopping experience for customers. These efforts are expected to drive improved new store productivity and more disciplined expense management.
- Elevation Strategy and Elevated Assortment: The company's "elevation strategy" is centered on offering better, more recognizable brands, higher quality, and more fashion-focused merchandise at compelling values. This strategy has shown clear success, with the highest comparable store sales growth rates observed in higher-priced product categories, indicating strong customer acceptance of the elevated assortment. This approach has led to a mid-single-digit increase in average unit retail, contributing to overall sales growth.
- Enhanced Merchandising and Localization Capabilities: Burlington is expanding its "Merchandising 2.0" capabilities, which include a focus on regional and store-level localization. This involves tailoring assortments by region and individual store to better align with local customer demand. Management has identified further investment in localization as a key growth opportunity, aiming to improve product relevance and enhance the overall shopping experience.
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Share Repurchases
- During fiscal year 2025, Burlington Stores repurchased $251 million in common stock, with $59 million occurring in the fourth quarter.
- As of the end of the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 (January 31, 2026), the company had $385 million remaining on its share repurchase authorization, which is set to expire in May 2027.
- In May 2025, Burlington Stores authorized a share repurchase program to buy back up to $500 million of its common stock through May 2027.
Capital Expenditures
- For fiscal year 2026, Burlington Stores anticipates capital expenditures, net of landlord allowances, to be approximately $875 million.
- The primary focus of these 2026 capital expenditures includes opening 110 net new stores and a new distribution center in Savannah, Georgia. Approximately 60% of these new stores are projected to open in the first half of the year.
- In fiscal year 2025, capital expenditures, net of landlord allowances, were approximately $950 million, supporting the opening of 104 net new stores.
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Peer Comparisons
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Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 150.92 |
| Mkt Cap | 44.3 |
| Rev LTM | 19,619 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,889 |
| FCF LTM | 1,842 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,316 |
| CFO LTM | 2,426 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,941 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 15.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 21.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accessories and shoes | 3,234 | 2,867 | 2,621 | 2,089 | 2,144 |
| Home | 2,310 | 2,123 | 1,942 | 1,828 | 1,864 |
| Ladies apparel | 2,310 | 2,230 | 2,039 | 1,915 | 2,144 |
| Mens apparel | 1,963 | 1,805 | 1,651 | 1,479 | 1,492 |
| Kids apparel and baby | 1,386 | 1,274 | 1,165 | 1,044 | 1,305 |
| Outerwear | 346 | 319 | 291 | 348 | 373 |
| Other revenue | 17 | 18 | 18 | ||
| Total | 11,567 | 10,635 | 9,727 | 8,703 | 9,322 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $368.48 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 23.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/02/2013 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -1.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $330.06 | $305.49 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 11.6% | 20.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 42.5% | 38.4% |
| Downside Capture | 48.23 | 98.28 |
| Upside Capture | 106.15 | 113.07 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 23.0% | 31.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.85 | 0.52 | 0.69 | 0.95 | 0.92 | 1.11 |
| Up Beta | -2.17 | -0.07 | 0.31 | 0.83 | 0.66 | 1.24 |
| Down Beta | 1.74 | 1.34 | 0.76 | 1.31 | 0.73 | 0.93 |
| Up Capture | 275% | 83% | 102% | 108% | 121% | 160% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 14 | 23 | 32 | 65 | 128 | 387 |
| Down Capture | 28% | -3% | 50% | 73% | 101% | 103% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 20 | 31 | 61 | 124 | 365 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BURL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BURL | 31.3% | 38.5% | 0.79 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 4.6% | 19.5% | 0.11 | 32.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 18.8% | 12.9% | 1.07 | 30.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 23.6% | 28.1% | 0.74 | 6.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 30.2% | 19.7% | 1.22 | -16.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.7% | 13.9% | 0.69 | 20.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -44.8% | 42.9% | -1.26 | 14.7% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BURL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BURL | 1.6% | 44.2% | 0.17 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 5.7% | 24.1% | 0.20 | 49.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.6% | 17.1% | 0.56 | 45.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.1% | 18.5% | 0.75 | 3.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.0% | 19.5% | 0.35 | 2.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.5% | 18.9% | 0.03 | 35.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 14.2% | 53.3% | 0.45 | 18.6% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BURL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BURL | 17.1% | 41.8% | 0.52 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.2% | 22.1% | 0.50 | 52.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.0% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 48.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.3% | 16.1% | 0.57 | 1.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.3% | 18.0% | 0.32 | 10.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 42.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.2% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 13.7% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 7/1/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/28/2026 | -7.9% | 0.8% | -1.7% |
| 3/5/2026 | 6.9% | 1.0% | 9.3% |
| 11/25/2025 | -12.2% | -12.5% | 0.9% |
| 8/28/2025 | 5.3% | 7.5% | -5.9% |
| 5/29/2025 | -4.5% | -0.1% | -3.3% |
| 3/6/2025 | 8.7% | 2.7% | -0.5% |
| 11/26/2024 | -1.6% | -2.0% | 1.2% |
| 8/29/2024 | -2.1% | -2.0% | -2.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 12 | 11 |
| # Negative | 13 | 12 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 8.7% | 9.5% | 8.8% |
| Median Negative | -4.5% | -6.6% | -5.9% |
| Max Positive | 20.7% | 25.4% | 38.0% |
| Max Negative | -13.0% | -20.4% | -26.1% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/28/2026 | -7.9% | 0.8% | -1.7% |
| 3/5/2026 | 6.9% | 1.0% | 9.3% |
| 11/25/2025 | -12.2% | -12.5% | 0.9% |
| 8/28/2025 | 5.3% | 7.5% | -5.9% |
| 5/29/2025 | -4.5% | -0.1% | -3.3% |
| 3/6/2025 | 8.7% | 2.7% | -0.5% |
| 11/26/2024 | -1.6% | -2.0% | 1.2% |
| 8/29/2024 | -2.1% | -2.0% | -2.8% |
| 5/30/2024 | 17.6% | 17.5% | 19.8% |
| 3/7/2024 | 7.5% | 7.4% | -2.9% |
| 11/21/2023 | 20.7% | 25.4% | 38.0% |
| 8/24/2023 | -8.9% | -5.7% | -19.5% |
| 5/25/2023 | -3.8% | -13.5% | -6.2% |
| 3/2/2023 | -2.4% | -0.8% | -10.4% |
| 11/22/2022 | 20.5% | 22.1% | 22.3% |
| 8/25/2022 | -10.2% | -14.4% | -26.1% |
| 5/26/2022 | 8.7% | 11.4% | 0.3% |
| 3/3/2022 | -13.0% | -20.4% | -21.9% |
| 11/23/2021 | 8.6% | 11.5% | 8.8% |
| 8/26/2021 | -9.2% | -13.1% | -12.9% |
| 5/27/2021 | -1.1% | -7.6% | -0.7% |
| 3/4/2021 | 11.2% | 15.7% | 18.0% |
| 11/24/2020 | -1.8% | -4.1% | 8.7% |
| 8/27/2020 | 2.8% | 7.3% | 1.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 12 | 11 |
| # Negative | 13 | 12 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 8.7% | 9.5% | 8.8% |
| Median Negative | -4.5% | -6.6% | -5.9% |
| Max Positive | 20.7% | 25.4% | 38.0% |
| Max Negative | -13.0% | -20.4% | -26.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 04/30/2026 | 05/28/2026 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2026 | 03/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2025 | 11/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2025 | 08/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2025 | 05/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2025 | 03/17/2025 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2024 | 11/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 08/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2024 | 05/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2024 | 03/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2023 | 11/21/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 08/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 05/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2023 | 03/13/2023 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2022 | 11/22/2022 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2022 | 08/25/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 04/30/2026 | 05/28/2026 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2026 | 03/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2025 | 11/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2025 | 08/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2025 | 05/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2025 | 03/17/2025 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2024 | 11/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 08/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2024 | 05/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2024 | 03/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2023 | 11/21/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 08/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 05/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2023 | 03/13/2023 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2022 | 11/22/2022 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2022 | 08/25/2022 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2022 | 05/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2022 | 03/16/2022 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2021 | 11/23/2021 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2021 | 08/26/2021 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2021 | 05/27/2021 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2021 | 03/15/2021 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2020 | 11/24/2020 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2020 | 08/27/2020 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2020 | 05/29/2020 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2020 | 03/13/2020 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2019 | 11/26/2019 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2019 | 08/29/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/12/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/28/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Total Sales Increase | 0.1 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 10.0% | 1.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 0.1 for Q1 2026 |
| Q2 2026 Comparable Store Sales Increase | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.03 | -33.3% | -1.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 0.03 for Q1 2026 |
| Q2 2026 Adjusted EBIT Margin Increase | 0.3% | 0.45% | 0.6% | 1.2% | Higher New | Guidance: -0.8% for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Adjusted Effective Tax Rate | 23.0% | ||||||
| Q2 2026 EPS | 2.05 | 2.12 | 2.2 | 26.9% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.68 for Q1 2026 | |
| 2026 Total Sales Increase | 0.09 | 0.1 | 0.11 | 11.1% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 0.09 for 2026 |
| 2026 Comparable Store Sales Increase | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 50.0% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 0.02 for 2026 |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 875.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 875.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Net New Stores | 115 | ||||||
| 2026 Depreciation and Amortization | 465.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 Adjusted EBIT Margin Increase | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | Raised | Guidance: 0.1% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Net Interest Expense | 60.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 Adjusted Effective Tax Rate | 25.0% | ||||||
| 2026 EPS | 11.4 | 11.6 | 11.8 | 3.8% | Raised | Guidance: 11.2 for 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue Growth | 9.0% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 2.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 8.0% for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Comparable Store Sales Growth | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 2.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.0% for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Operating Margin Change | -1.0% | -0.8% | -0.6% | -1.2% | Lower New | Guidance: 0.4% for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 EPS | 1.6 | 1.68 | 1.75 | -63.6% | Lower New | Guidance: 4.6 for Q4 2025 | |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 8.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 8.0% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Comparable Store Sales Growth | 1.0% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 1.5% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 875.00 Mil | -7.9% | Lowered | Guidance: 950.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Operating Margin Change | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | -0.6% | Lowered | Guidance: 0.65% for 2025 | |
| 2026 EPS | 10.9 | 11.2 | 11.4 | 14.4% | Raised | Guidance: 9.79 for 2025 | |
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/25/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Total Sales Growth | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% | ||||
| Q4 2025 Comparable Store Sales Growth | 0.0% | 1.0% | 2.0% | ||||
| Q4 2025 Adjusted EBIT Margin Increase | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | ||||
| Q4 2025 Adjusted EPS | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.7 | ||||
| 2025 Total Sales Growth | 8.0% | 6.7% | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 7.5% for 2025 | ||
| 2025 Comparable Store Sales Growth | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.5% for 2025 |
| 2025 Capital Expenditures | 950.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 950.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Net New Stores | 104 | ||||||
| 2025 Depreciation and Amortization | 395.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2025 Adjusted EBIT Margin Increase | 0.6% | 0.65% | 0.7% | 0.4% | Raised | Guidance: 0.3% for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted EPS | 9.69 | 9.79 | 9.89 | 4.3% | Raised | Guidance: 9.39 for 2025 | |
| 2028 Operating Income | 1.60 Bil | ||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 7/6/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vecchio, Jennifer | Group President and CMO | Direct | Sell | 7062026 | 315.42 | 1,678 | 529,282 | 25,025,435 | Form |
| 2 | Wolfe, Kristin | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6222026 | 340.19 | 8,200 | 2,789,594 | 9,148,509 | Form |
| 3 | Ferroni, Stephen | SVP, Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 6152026 | 337.22 | 2,343 | 790,111 | 469,076 | Form |
| 4 | Pasch, Matthew | Chief Human Resources Officer | Direct | Sell | 6092026 | 317.21 | 3,773 | 1,196,833 | 2,069,161 | Form |
| 5 | Marquette, Travis | President and COO | Direct | Sell | 5072026 | 313.68 | 190 | 59,600 | 8,566,343 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vecchio, Jennifer | Group President and CMO | Direct | Sell | 7062026 | 315.42 | 1,678 | 529,282 | 25,025,435 | Form |
| 2 | Wolfe, Kristin | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6222026 | 340.19 | 8,200 | 2,789,594 | 9,148,509 | Form |
| 3 | Ferroni, Stephen | SVP, Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 6152026 | 337.22 | 2,343 | 790,111 | 469,076 | Form |
| 4 | Pasch, Matthew | Chief Human Resources Officer | Direct | Sell | 6092026 | 317.21 | 3,773 | 1,196,833 | 2,069,161 | Form |
| 5 | Marquette, Travis | President and COO | Direct | Sell | 5072026 | 313.68 | 190 | 59,600 | 8,566,343 | Form |
| 6 | Marquette, Travis | President and COO | Direct | Sell | 5052026 | 309.40 | 894 | 276,601 | 8,637,139 | Form |
| 7 | Vecchio, Jennifer | Group President and CMO | Direct | Sell | 4032026 | 330.92 | 419 | 138,654 | 25,975,563 | Form |
| 8 | Marquette, Travis | President and COO | Direct | Sell | 3252026 | 327.75 | 3,759 | 1,232,007 | 8,636,175 | Form |
| 9 | Vecchio, Jennifer | Group President and CMO | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 303.08 | 419 | 126,992 | 29,284,847 | Form |
| 10 | Vecchio, Jennifer | Group President and CMO | Direct | Sell | 2042026 | 297.60 | 419 | 124,693 | 18,597,970 | Form |
| 11 | Vecchio, Jennifer | Group President and CMO | Direct | Sell | 1062026 | 292.51 | 419 | 122,561 | 18,402,643 | Form |
| 12 | Vecchio, Jennifer | Group President and CMO | Direct | Sell | 12032025 | 247.62 | 419 | 103,752 | 15,682,104 | Form |
| 13 | Vecchio, Jennifer | Group President and CMO | Direct | Sell | 11052025 | 274.48 | 419 | 115,009 | 17,498,653 | Form |
| 14 | Marquette, Travis | President and COO | Direct | Sell | 10082025 | 261.35 | 84 | 21,954 | 5,904,489 | Form |
| 15 | Vecchio, Jennifer | Group President and CMO | Direct | Sell | 10032025 | 254.04 | 419 | 106,441 | 16,301,451 | Form |
| 16 | Ferroni, Stephen | SVP, Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 9112025 | 281.25 | 1,123 | 315,844 | 671,906 | Form |
| 17 | Vecchio, Jennifer | Group President and CMO | Direct | Sell | 9042025 | 287.92 | 420 | 120,928 | 18,596,694 | Form |
| 18 | Vecchio, Jennifer | Group President and CMO | Direct | Sell | 8052025 | 269.93 | 420 | 113,372 | 17,548,036 | Form |
| 19 | Vecchio, Jennifer | Group President and CMO | Direct | Sell | 7032025 | 236.64 | 420 | 99,388 | 15,482,932 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Aug 1, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alua Capital Management LP | $60.5 Mil | 6.6% | 14 | TRIM -15.2% | 13F |
| Dorsal Capital Management, LP | $162.7 Mil | 6.5% | 25 | ADD +5.3% | 13F |
| Hook Mill Capital Partners, LP | $59.3 Mil | 5.2% | 39 | TRIM -16.3% | 13F |
| SRS Investment Management, LLC | $376.4 Mil | 4.0% | 29 | Hold | 13F |
| Benchstone Capital Management LP | $31.6 Mil | 3.7% | 38 | ADD +14.4% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SRS Investment Management, LLC | $376.4 Mil | 4.0% | 29 | Hold | 13F |
| Dorsal Capital Management, LP | $162.7 Mil | 6.5% | 25 | ADD +5.3% | 13F |
| Alua Capital Management LP | $60.5 Mil | 6.6% | 14 | TRIM -15.2% | 13F |
| Hook Mill Capital Partners, LP | $59.3 Mil | 5.2% | 39 | TRIM -16.3% | 13F |
| Benchstone Capital Management LP | $31.6 Mil | 3.7% | 38 | ADD +14.4% | 13F |
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Apparel Retail Resources |
| Apparel News |
| Just Style |
| Sourcing Journal |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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