Tearsheet

Burlington Stores (BURL)


Market Price (12/14/2025): $264.01 | Market Cap: $16.6 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Apparel Retail

Burlington Stores (BURL)


Market Price (12/14/2025): $264.01
Market Cap: $16.6 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Apparel Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 43%
Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -40%
Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.4%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Value Retail. Themes include Off-Price Business Model, Discount Merchandising, and Inventory Liquidation.
  
0 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 43%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Value Retail. Themes include Off-Price Business Model, Discount Merchandising, and Inventory Liquidation.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -40%
3 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.4%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

BURL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The decline of approximately 8.5% in Burlington Stores (BURL) stock between late August 2025 and December 2025 can be attributed to several key factors, primarily related to the company's financial performance and market sentiment.

1. Q3 Fiscal Year 2025 Revenue Miss: Burlington Stores reported its third-quarter fiscal year 2025 results on November 25, 2025, where its quarterly revenue of $2.71 billion fell below analyst estimates of $2.74 billion, despite the company exceeding earnings per share expectations.

2. Conservative Guidance for Future Periods: Following the Q3 2025 earnings announcement, the company's guidance for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025 and projections for fiscal year 2026 were perceived as conservative by analysts, which tempered market optimism regarding future growth.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
BURL Return15%11%-30%-4%47%-6%18%
Peers Return13%5%-16%25%7%22%65%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%111%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
BURL Win Rate50%42%42%42%58%50% 
Peers Win Rate55%52%42%63%53%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
BURL Max Drawdown-47%-9%-62%-43%-9%-24% 
Peers Max Drawdown-48%-15%-36%-15%-16%-26% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TJX, ROST, KSS, OLLI, TGT. See BURL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventBURLS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-68.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven221.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-51.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven106.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven280 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-22.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven29.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven94 days120 days

Compare to DG, DLTR, OLLI, PSMT, TJX


In The Past

Burlington Stores's stock fell -68.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/11/2021. A -68.9% loss requires a 221.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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About Burlington Stores (BURL)

Better Bets than Burlington Stores (BURL)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to BURL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
15.2%15.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.1%1.1%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.4%12.4%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.9%17.9%-1.6%
BURL_3312020_Dip_Buyer_2_Growing_With_High_FCF_Yield03312020BURLBurlington StoresDip BuyDB | Growth | FCF YieldDip Buy with Growth and High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with growth, and significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap)
29.2%88.6%-11.3%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
15.2%15.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.1%1.1%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.4%12.4%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.9%17.9%-1.6%
BURL_3312020_Dip_Buyer_2_Growing_With_High_FCF_Yield03312020BURLBurlington StoresDip BuyDB | Growth | FCF YieldDip Buy with Growth and High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with growth, and significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap)
29.2%88.6%-11.3%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Burlington Stores

Peers to compare with:

Financials

BURLTJXROSTKSSOLLITGTMedian
NameBurlingt.TJX Comp.Ross Sto.Kohl's Ollie's .Target  
Mkt Price266.09156.14182.0923.27113.9197.09135.02
Mkt Cap16.8160.749.02.67.940.728.7
Rev LTM11,19758,97922,02715,7512,537105,24218,889
Op Inc LTM7866,6712,6245003045,2041,705
FCF LTM-3844,4181,9638191543,0091,391
FCF 3Y Avg764,4761,8855701233,7321,227
CFO LTM8376,4212,7881,2262626,7742,007
CFO 3Y Avg8716,3052,6641,0512367,6461,858

Growth & Margins

BURLTJXROSTKSSOLLITGTMedian
NameBurlingt.TJX Comp.Ross Sto.Kohl's Ollie's .Target  
Rev Chg LTM6.8%4.5%3.7%-6.1%12.6%-2.2%4.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg9.4%6.2%6.0%-5.4%12.6%-1.1%6.1%
Rev Chg Q7.1%7.5%10.4%-3.6%18.6%-1.6%7.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.6%1.8%2.5%-0.8%3.9%-0.4%1.7%
Op Mgn LTM7.0%11.3%11.9%3.2%12.0%4.9%9.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg6.3%10.9%11.7%2.5%11.6%5.1%8.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.1%0.1%-0.1%-0.1%-0.0%-0.2%-0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM7.5%10.9%12.7%7.8%10.3%6.4%9.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg8.5%11.3%12.8%6.3%10.5%7.2%9.5%
FCF/Rev LTM-3.4%7.5%8.9%5.2%6.1%2.9%5.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg1.0%8.0%9.0%3.5%5.4%3.5%4.5%

Valuation

BURLTJXROSTKSSOLLITGTMedian
NameBurlingt.TJX Comp.Ross Sto.Kohl's Ollie's .Target  
Mkt Cap16.8160.749.02.67.940.728.7
P/S1.52.72.20.23.10.41.9
P/EBIT19.6--3.2--11.4
P/E29.931.423.513.435.210.826.7
P/CFO20.025.017.62.130.16.018.8
Total Yield3.3%4.3%5.3%11.2%2.8%14.3%4.8%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.1%1.1%3.8%0.0%5.0%1.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg1.2%--28.6%--14.9%
D/E0.4--4.0--2.2
Net D/E0.3--3.9--2.1

Returns

BURLTJXROSTKSSOLLITGTMedian
NameBurlingt.TJX Comp.Ross Sto.Kohl's Ollie's .Target  
1M Rtn-6.0%6.7%12.8%33.7%-9.8%7.1%6.9%
3M Rtn-0.3%12.3%23.4%52.9%-13.4%9.3%10.8%
6M Rtn16.3%26.8%38.8%190.3%-0.5%4.2%21.5%
12M Rtn-8.2%26.6%19.9%69.0%1.0%-24.6%10.5%
3Y Rtn35.6%105.3%60.2%6.8%122.3%-29.3%47.9%
1M Excs Rtn-7.0%6.1%12.4%29.9%-11.1%6.0%6.0%
3M Excs Rtn-4.7%7.7%20.9%42.6%-19.6%7.8%7.8%
6M Excs Rtn2.1%12.5%24.6%176.1%-14.7%-10.0%7.3%
12M Excs Rtn-21.5%11.1%5.1%51.6%-10.5%-38.1%-2.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-39.5%31.4%-10.5%-67.1%65.5%-103.5%-25.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Accessories and shoes2,6212,0892,1441,3831,603
Ladies apparel2,0391,9152,1441,1531,603
Home1,9421,8281,8641,2101,093
Mens apparel1,6511,4791,4929221,457
Kids apparel and baby1,1651,0441,3058651,166
Outerwear291348373231364
Other revenue18    
Total9,7278,7039,3225,7647,286


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,580,251
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-2.6%
Average Daily Volume1,649,796
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.56
Basic Shares Quantity62,982,000
Short % of Basic Shares4.1%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/25/2025-12.2%-12.5% 
8/28/20255.3%7.5%-5.9%
5/29/2025-4.5%-0.1%-3.3%
3/6/20258.7%2.7%-0.5%
11/26/2024-1.6%-2.0%1.2%
8/29/2024-2.1%-2.0%-2.8%
5/30/202417.6%17.5%19.8%
3/7/20247.5%7.4%-2.9%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive12129
# Negative121215
Median Positive8.6%9.8%8.8%
Median Negative-4.2%-6.6%-6.0%
Max Positive20.7%25.4%38.0%
Max Negative-13.0%-20.4%-26.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
103120251125202510-Q 11/1/2025
7312025828202510-Q 8/2/2025
4302025530202510-Q 5/3/2025
1312025317202510-K 2/1/2025
103120241126202410-Q 11/2/2024
7312024829202410-Q 8/3/2024
4302024530202410-Q 5/4/2024
1312024315202410-K 2/3/2024
103120231121202310-Q 10/28/2023
7312023824202310-Q 7/29/2023
4302023525202310-Q 4/29/2023
1312023313202310-K 1/28/2023
103120221122202210-Q 10/29/2022
7312022825202210-Q 7/30/2022
4302022526202210-Q 4/30/2022
1312022316202210-K 1/29/2022

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Vecchio JenniferGroup President and CMO11052025Sell270.27349,18917,334,037Form