Booking Holdings (BKNG)
Market Price (10/16/2026): $165.85 | Market Cap: $127.4 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Booking Holdings (BKNG)
Market Price (10/16/2026): $165.85Market Cap: $127.4 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9%, FCF Yield is 7.7% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 34% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, CFO LTM is 9.9 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.5 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 26 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -40%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -45% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 4.4x Key risksBKNG key risks include [1] margin compression from Google's growing travel presence and evolving ad policies, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9%, FCF Yield is 7.7% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 34% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, CFO LTM is 9.9 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.5 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 26 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -40%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -45% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 4.4x |
| Key risksBKNG key risks include [1] margin compression from Google's growing travel presence and evolving ad policies, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Booking Holdings (BKNG) stock has lost about 10% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Softer Fiscal Q3 2026 Guidance and Trimmed Full-Year Outlook.
Despite reporting stronger-than-expected fiscal Q2 2026 results on August 4, 2026, with revenue increasing 8.1% year-over-year to $7.35 billion and diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.54 surpassing analyst estimates of $2.43, Booking Holdings issued a more conservative outlook for fiscal Q3 2026. Management guided for fiscal Q3 2026 revenue growth of only 4% to 6% and anticipated room night growth of 3% to 5%. This moderated growth forecast, a reduction from earlier expectations, weighed on investor sentiment and contributed to the stock's decline.
2. Geopolitical Tensions and Rising Travel Costs.
Escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly the Middle East conflict, pushed Brent crude oil prices above $100 per barrel, leading to increased airfares and concerns about reduced demand for long-haul travel. This directly impacted the online travel sector. Additionally, broader economic uncertainty and inflation caused travel and tourism-related prices to outpace overall inflation, with 28% of travelers postponing trips and 16% canceling due to rising costs.
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Booking Holdings (BKNG) stock has lost about 10% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Softer Fiscal Q3 2026 Guidance and Trimmed Full-Year Outlook.
Despite reporting stronger-than-expected fiscal Q2 2026 results on August 4, 2026, with revenue increasing 8.1% year-over-year to $7.35 billion and diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.54 surpassing analyst estimates of $2.43, Booking Holdings issued a more conservative outlook for fiscal Q3 2026. Management guided for fiscal Q3 2026 revenue growth of only 4% to 6% and anticipated room night growth of 3% to 5%. This moderated growth forecast, a reduction from earlier expectations, weighed on investor sentiment and contributed to the stock's decline.
2. Geopolitical Tensions and Rising Travel Costs.
Escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly the Middle East conflict, pushed Brent crude oil prices above $100 per barrel, leading to increased airfares and concerns about reduced demand for long-haul travel. This directly impacted the online travel sector. Additionally, broader economic uncertainty and inflation caused travel and tourism-related prices to outpace overall inflation, with 28% of travelers postponing trips and 16% canceling due to rising costs.
3. Increased Fears of AI-Driven Disruption in the Travel Sector.
The launch of Meta Platforms' Muse AI agent and rival Expedia Group's integration of AI platforms intensified investor fears about artificial intelligence disrupting the online travel agency (OTA) business model. Concerns grew that AI assistants could facilitate direct bookings, bypassing traditional OTAs like Booking Holdings and potentially impacting its commission-based revenue streams. These fears contributed to a sharp decline in Booking Holdings shares alongside those of its peers.
4. Significant Insider Selling Activity.
Executive Vice President and General Counsel Peter J. Millones sold 50,050 shares of Booking Holdings common stock on August 17, 2026, in multiple open-market transactions. These sales generated approximately $10.39 million, exceeding the $5 million threshold for consideration. Even though these transactions were executed as part of a pre-arranged 10b5-1 trading plan, the substantial insider selling during a period of market uncertainty and prior to a significant stock downturn likely added to negative investor perception.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
6/30/2026 to 10/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BKNG | -9.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.4% | 10.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | -4.9% | 46.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 10/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BKNG | -4.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 19.0% | 19.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | 2.5% | 48.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 10/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BKNG | -24.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.8% | 28.9% |
| Sector (XLY) | -6.4% | 48.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
9/30/2023 to 10/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BKNG | 33.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 86.7% | 47.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | 41.7% | 54.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BKNG Return | 8% | -16% | 76% | 41% | 9% | -24% | 85% |
| Peers Return | 22% | -32% | 50% | 10% | 17% | 3% | 64% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BKNG Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 75% | 58% | 50% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 40% | 58% | 62% | 57% | 64% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BKNG Max Drawdown | -22% | -40% | -15% | -20% | -21% | -30% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -31% | -44% | -25% | -30% | -33% | -27% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: EXPE, ABNB, MAR, HLT, TRIP. See BKNG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/15/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BKNG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -18.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 23 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -17.2% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.7% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 41 days | 18 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -33.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 108 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -41.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 70.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 231 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -18.0% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.0% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 255 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -25.5% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.2% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 32 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Booking's stock fell -18.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 22.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | BKNG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -33.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 108 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -41.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 70.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 231 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -25.5% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.2% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 32 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -21.7% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.8% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 10 days | 15 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -35.2% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 54.3% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 56 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.2% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 151.2% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 256 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Booking's stock fell -18.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 22.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Booking Holdings (BKNG)
Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) is a global leader in online travel and restaurant reservation services. The company connects consumers with a vast network of travel service providers and restaurants, offering a comprehensive suite of tools to plan and book various aspects of their trips and dining experiences.
Its extensive portfolio includes well-known brands such as Booking.com and Agoda for accommodation reservations, Rentalcars.com for car rentals, and Priceline for a broad range of travel services including hotels, flights, and vacation packages. For consumers looking to compare prices across different providers, KAYAK offers an online price comparison service. Beyond travel, Booking Holdings also facilitates restaurant bookings through OpenTable and provides related services like travel insurance and restaurant management tools.
Booking Holdings primarily serves two key customer segments worldwide: individual consumers seeking convenient ways to book travel and dining, and a diverse array of service providers, including hotels, airlines, car rental companies, cruise lines, and restaurants, by offering them platforms to reach a global customer base and manage reservations.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Booking Holdings:
- Amazon for travel: It's a vast online marketplace where you can book almost everything related to travel, from hotels and flights to rental cars and vacation packages.
- The Expedia Group of companies, but also for restaurants: Similar to its main competitor, Expedia, it's a major online travel agency offering bookings for flights, hotels, and cars, but it also includes a popular platform for restaurant reservations (OpenTable).
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- Online Accommodation Reservations: Provides a platform for booking hotels, resorts, apartments, and other lodging options globally through Booking.com and Agoda.
- Online Rental Car Reservations: Offers services to book rental cars from various providers via Rentalcars.com and Priceline.
- Online Flight Reservations: Enables consumers to book airline tickets through Priceline and Agoda.
- Online Travel Packages & Cruises: Priceline offers bundled vacation packages and cruise booking services.
- Online Travel Price Comparison (Meta-search): KAYAK allows users to search and compare prices for airline tickets, accommodations, and rental cars from various travel sites.
- Online Restaurant Reservations & Management: OpenTable facilitates booking tables at restaurants and offers restaurant management services.
- Travel-Related Insurance Products: Provides insurance products associated with travel bookings.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Booking Holdings (BKNG) primarily sells its services to **individual consumers** rather than other businesses. Its major customers can be categorized as follows:
- Travelers: Individuals seeking to book various travel-related services such as accommodations (hotels, vacation rentals), flights, rental cars, cruises, and vacation packages. This category encompasses users of platforms like Booking.com, Priceline, Agoda, Rentalcars.com, and KAYAK.
- Diners/Restaurant Patrons: Individuals looking to make online reservations for restaurants. This primarily includes users of OpenTable.
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Glenn D. Fogel
Chief Executive Officer and Director
Glenn D. Fogel has served as Chief Executive Officer and President of Booking Holdings since January 2017, and as Chief Executive Officer of Booking.com since June 2019. He joined Booking Holdings in February 2000, and before becoming CEO, he served as Head of Worldwide Strategy and Planning from November 2010 to December 2016, and as Executive Vice President, Corporate Development, from March 2009 to December 2016. In these roles, he was responsible for worldwide mergers, acquisitions, and strategic alliances, playing a key role in transformative acquisitions such as Booking.com, KAYAK, and Agoda. Prior to joining Booking Holdings, Mr. Fogel was a trader at a global asset management firm and began his career as an investment banker specializing in the air transportation industry.
Ewout Steenbergen
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Ewout Steenbergen joined Booking Holdings as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer on March 15, 2024. Before this role, he served as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at S&P Global Inc. from 2016 to March 2024. At S&P Global, he was also appointed President, Engineering Solutions, in 2022 following the merger with IHS Markit, and led Kensho Technologies, an artificial intelligence company, since 2018. Prior to S&P Global, Mr. Steenbergen was Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Voya Financial, Inc., a financial services company, from 2010 to 2016, and held various leadership roles at ING Group.
Peter J. Millones, Jr.
Executive Vice President and General Counsel
Peter J. Millones Jr. has served as Executive Vice President of Booking Holdings since April 2003 and as General Counsel since January 2001. He previously held the positions of Vice President and Associate General Counsel from March 2000 to January 2001. Before joining Booking Holdings, Mr. Millones was with the law firm of Latham & Watkins LLP.
Paulo Pisano
Chief Human Resources Officer
Paulo Pisano has served as Chief Human Resources Officer of Booking Holdings since August 2021. Prior to this, he was Senior Vice President and Chief People Officer of Booking.com starting in March 2020.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Booking Holdings' business are primarily regulatory scrutiny, the potential for disintermediation by artificial intelligence and direct booking trends, and macroeconomic and geopolitical sensitivities.
1. Regulatory Scrutiny and Anti-Competitive Concerns
Booking Holdings faces significant regulatory pressure and potential legal action. The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) is reportedly investigating Booking Holdings' subsidiary Priceline.com and its affiliate Guest Reservations over allegations of misleading customers with hidden hotel booking fees. This could result in substantial penalties, potentially exceeding $500 million, and require changes to their business practices. Furthermore, the European General Court upheld a decision to block Booking Holdings' $1.9 billion acquisition of ETraveli, citing concerns about increased market dominance. This indicates a challenging regulatory environment that may restrict future expansion and acquisition strategies.
2. Disintermediation by AI and Direct Booking Trends
The rise of advanced AI-powered search tools and chatbots poses a risk of disintermediating online travel agencies (OTAs) like Booking Holdings by directing travelers straight to suppliers. For example, Expedia's partnership with Meta's Muse AI assistant has heightened concerns that AI agents could bypass traditional OTA platforms. This shift could reduce Booking Holdings' commission rates and weaken its competitive advantage. Additionally, hotels are increasingly investing in their own technology and loyalty programs to encourage direct bookings, thereby lessening their reliance on OTAs. Even Google, a key partner for traffic, represents a potential competitive threat if it further integrates direct booking capabilities.
3. Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Sensitivity
The travel industry is highly susceptible to broader economic conditions and geopolitical instability. Economic downturns, such as recessions, can lead to rapid declines in discretionary travel spending, directly impacting Booking Holdings' financial performance. Geopolitical tensions, particularly in regions like the Middle East, can significantly affect travel demand and have already contributed to reduced revenue growth guidance for the company. Furthermore, the company's global operations expose it to financial risks associated with foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations.
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Booking Holdings (BKNG) operates in several significant addressable markets globally for its main products and services:
- Online Travel Agencies (including accommodation, flights, and vacation packages): The global online travel agencies market size was valued at approximately USD 718.9 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 1,316.8 billion by 2033.
- Online Accommodation Booking: The global online accommodation booking market size is valued at USD 391.85 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 683.92 billion by 2034.
- Online Car Rental: The global online car rental platform market size is valued at USD 117.38 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 207.79 billion by 2034.
- Online Restaurant Reservations: The global online restaurant reservation system market is estimated to be valued at approximately USD 2.68 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 6.46 billion by 2035.
- Travel-Related Insurance Products: The global travel insurance market was valued at USD 35.82 billion in 2026 and is projected to grow to USD 140.78 billion by 2034.
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Booking Holdings (BKNG) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives:
- Expansion of the "Connected Trip" Vision and AI Integration: Booking Holdings aims to integrate planning, booking, and travel experiences more seamlessly, leveraging advanced AI technology to offer personalized services and enhance customer engagement. This strategic focus is designed to make the travel experience easier and more enjoyable, ultimately driving increased bookings across its platforms.
- Growth in Alternative Accommodations: The company identifies alternative accommodations as a significant area for future expansion and is actively working to grow its supply in this segment. This focus on non-traditional lodging options, which has already shown healthy growth, is expected to attract a broader customer base and contribute to revenue growth.
- Strategic Geographic Market Expansion: Booking Holdings is prioritizing expansion in key geographic markets, particularly in Asia and the United States. These regions represent substantial opportunities for increasing market share and customer acquisition, thereby fueling revenue growth.
- Enhancement of Direct Booking Channels and Loyalty Programs: The company is concentrating on improving its direct booking channels and strengthening its loyalty programs, such as the Genius program. By driving more direct traffic to its marketplace and fostering customer loyalty, Booking Holdings aims to reduce reliance on paid marketing channels and encourage repeat business, contributing to more efficient revenue generation.
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Share Repurchases
- Booking Holdings executed a significant share repurchase of $3.7 billion in Q2 2026, contributing to $7.4 billion in repurchases for the first half of 2026.
- As of June 30, 2026, the company had $14.5 billion remaining in its stock buyback authorization.
- In February 2025, Booking's board approved a new $20 billion stock buyback program, supplementing the remaining $7.7 billion from a $24 billion program authorized in Q1 2023.
Share Issuance
- In February 2026, the Board of Directors approved a 25-to-1 forward stock split of its common stock, which became effective on April 2, 2026. This action was intended to enhance stock liquidity.
- The company's aggressive share repurchase programs have significantly reduced the number of shares outstanding by approximately 17% since 2020.
Outbound Investments
- In November 2021, Booking Holdings acquired Etraveli Group, an online meta-search platform for flight tickets.
- In May 2021, Booking.com acquired Flyiin, an online marketplace for flight travel.
- The company made two acquisitions in 2021.
Capital Expenditures
- Booking Holdings' capital expenditures were $304 million in 2021, $368 million in 2022, $345 million in 2023, $429 million in 2024, and $322 million in 2025.
- In Q2 2026, capital expenditures were $76 million, representing a 28.97% decrease from the first quarter.
- The company's business model is considered asset-light, with a Capex-to-Operating-Cash-Flow ratio of 0.02 as of June 2026.
Peer Outperformance in Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKNG | Booking Holdings | 13.5% | 17.1x | -20.2% | 38.6% | 62.0% | — |
| RCL | Royal Caribbean | 16.2% | 17.1x | -8.2% | 234.1% | 235.5% | +174pp |
| LIND | Lindblad Expeditions | 16.1% | -134.5x | 186.7% | 429.4% | 135.5% | +74pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education Services | 14 | -18.2% | 81.7% | 87.3% | CVSA 256% · PRDO 231% · LRN 143% |
| Homebuilding | 18 | -8.2% | 33.7% | 44.5% | GRBK 190% · PHM 145% · TOL 134% |
| Specialty Stores | 7 | 15.0% | 37.1% | 17.5% | ASO 44% · DKS 32% · FIVE 17% |
| Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines ← | 21 | 12.0% | 38.6% | 13.6% | RCL 236% · MAR 151% · HLT 141% |
| Home Furnishings | 3 | -2.8% | 49.6% | 3.0% | SGI 47% · MHK -33% |
| Home Improvement Retail | 4 | -17.8% | 8.4% | -0.9% | HD 0% · LOW -2% · FND -64% |
| Automotive Retail | 18 | -15.0% | -0.2% | -8.4% | MUSA 237% · PAG 132% · ORLY 111% |
| Footwear | 9 | 72.5% | 53.0% | -9.1% | DECK 45% · SHOO 21% · CROX -9% |
| Specialized Consumer Services | 10 | -13.9% | 21.7% | -13.3% | HRB 130% · FTDR 79% · SCI 41% |
| Distributors | 4 | -9.0% | -25.4% | -16.1% | ARMK 122% · GPC 21% · LKQ -53% |
| Restaurants | 36 | -6.7% | -9.5% | -19.9% | EAT 331% · CAKE 205% · TXRH 104% |
| Apparel Retail | 26 | 2.0% | 8.8% | -36.8% | ANF 288% · TJX 142% · ROST 128% |
| Household Appliances | 17 | -4.6% | 16.4% | -37.0% | |
| Computer & Electronics Retail | 3 | 19.8% | 54.0% | -38.8% | BBY 5% · GME -39% |
| Leisure Facilities | 12 | 7.4% | -9.6% | -43.4% | LTH 137% · OSW 122% · PLNT -42% |
| Leisure Products | 14 | -21.1% | -15.6% | -46.0% | GOLF 75% · HAS 30% · MAT -12% |
| Automotive Parts & Equipment | 39 | -9.9% | -23.6% | -46.9% | MOD 1173% · GTX 266% · BWA 52% |
| Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods | 29 | -0.2% | 18.8% | -48.7% | RL 263% · TPR 233% · KTB 68% |
| Casinos & Gaming | 20 | -11.6% | -26.1% | -49.6% | MCRI 91% · BYD 12% · RRR 10% |
| Broadline Retail | 14 | -3.7% | 34.2% | -52.1% | EBAY 79% · AMZN 49% · OLLI 45% |
| Automobile Manufacturers | 8 | -65.3% | -56.1% | -77.7% | GM 50% · TSLA 29% · F 7% |
| Consumer Electronics | 11 | -29.8% | -32.5% | -77.9% | GRMN 102% · SONO -45% |
| Other Specialty Retail | 17 | -33.9% | -39.3% | -78.9% | ULTA 46% · TSCO -9% · BBWI -67% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 232.70 |
| Mkt Cap | 89.7 |
| Rev LTM | 14,430 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,826 |
| FCF LTM | 3,796 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,661 |
| CFO LTM | 4,294 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,360 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.8% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 12.8% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 12.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 19.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 25.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 22.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 89.7 |
| P/S | 4.1 |
| P/Op Inc | 18.5 |
| P/EBIT | 18.7 |
| P/E | 38.8 |
| P/CFO | 17.1 |
| Total Yield | 3.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.7% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 5.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 5.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 32.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 72.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 1.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -5.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 12.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -11.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $160.68 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 123.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/31/1999 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -26.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $183.04 | $179.32 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -12.2% | -10.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 38.5% | 37.8% |
| Downside Capture | 188.00 | 132.02 |
| Upside Capture | 68.06 | 74.09 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 10.6% | 30.4% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.31 | 0.87 | 0.54 | 0.67 | 0.88 | 0.98 |
| Up Beta | -3.26 | -0.23 | -2.26 | 0.45 | 0.71 | 0.96 |
| Down Beta | 2.25 | 2.97 | 1.25 | 0.97 | 1.03 | 0.99 |
| Up Capture | 65% | 39% | 104% | 45% | 53% | 80% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 6 | 16 | 27 | 66 | 132 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 19 | 30 | 64 | 123 | 405 |
| Down Capture | 377% | 206% | 162% | 89% | 110% | 101% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 16 | 26 | 37 | 60 | 120 | 328 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 23 | 34 | 62 | 129 | 346 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BKNG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKNG | -23.3% | 37.9% | -0.63 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | -4.3% | 19.1% | -0.36 | 48.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 17.6% | 12.7% | 0.99 | 29.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 0.5% | 29.5% | 0.02 | -1.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 50.9% | 20.7% | 1.88 | -29.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.7% | 13.7% | 0.08 | 23.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -28.1% | 43.7% | -0.63 | 11.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BKNG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKNG | 10.8% | 33.2% | 0.36 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 4.8% | 24.1% | 0.16 | 59.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.4% | 17.1% | 0.60 | 55.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.5% | 18.9% | 0.79 | 1.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.7% | 19.5% | 0.38 | 2.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.1% | 18.8% | -0.05 | 37.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 8.7% | 51.8% | 0.35 | 25.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BKNG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKNG | 10.6% | 32.9% | 0.38 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 11.9% | 22.2% | 0.49 | 61.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 59.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.2% | 16.4% | 0.61 | 0.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 14.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 44.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.1% | 66.2% | 1.03 | 16.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/4/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/4/2026 | 6.6% | 9.6% | 2.7% |
| 4/28/2026 | 0.3% | -3.3% | -2.1% |
| 2/18/2026 | -6.1% | -2.5% | 0.8% |
| 10/28/2025 | -0.9% | -2.5% | -4.1% |
| 7/29/2025 | 0.4% | -2.4% | 0.4% |
| 4/29/2025 | 3.9% | 5.2% | 12.1% |
| 2/20/2025 | -0.5% | -2.0% | -7.8% |
| 10/30/2024 | 4.8% | 12.0% | 16.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 13 | 15 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 2.8% | 6.0% | 9.7% |
| Median Negative | -4.3% | -3.3% | -6.9% |
| Max Positive | 7.9% | 13.5% | 20.4% |
| Max Negative | -10.1% | -12.4% | -13.2% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/4/2026 | 6.6% | 9.6% | 2.7% |
| 4/28/2026 | 0.3% | -3.3% | -2.1% |
| 2/18/2026 | -6.1% | -2.5% | 0.8% |
| 10/28/2025 | -0.9% | -2.5% | -4.1% |
| 7/29/2025 | 0.4% | -2.4% | 0.4% |
| 4/29/2025 | 3.9% | 5.2% | 12.1% |
| 2/20/2025 | -0.5% | -2.0% | -7.8% |
| 10/30/2024 | 4.8% | 12.0% | 16.5% |
| 8/1/2024 | -9.2% | -7.4% | 6.7% |
| 5/2/2024 | 3.0% | 8.8% | 8.4% |
| 2/22/2024 | -10.1% | -11.1% | -6.9% |
| 11/2/2023 | 0.7% | 6.0% | 10.4% |
| 8/3/2023 | 7.9% | 13.5% | 9.7% |
| 5/4/2023 | -1.3% | 2.0% | 2.6% |
| 2/23/2023 | 1.1% | 6.2% | 3.0% |
| 11/2/2022 | 2.7% | 4.9% | 17.3% |
| 8/3/2022 | -1.0% | 2.9% | -5.8% |
| 5/4/2022 | 3.3% | -1.5% | 11.1% |
| 2/23/2022 | -7.1% | -12.4% | -8.4% |
| 11/3/2021 | 0.1% | 5.5% | -13.2% |
| 8/4/2021 | 5.9% | 5.5% | 10.3% |
| 5/5/2021 | -2.5% | -7.1% | -1.0% |
| 2/24/2021 | -7.0% | -6.9% | -7.1% |
| 11/5/2020 | 0.9% | 11.0% | 20.4% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 13 | 15 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 2.8% | 6.0% | 9.7% |
| Median Negative | -4.3% | -3.3% | -6.9% |
| Max Positive | 7.9% | 13.5% | 20.4% |
| Max Negative | -10.1% | -12.4% | -13.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/28/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/28/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/23/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/24/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/07/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/26/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/07/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 8/5/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Room Nights Growth | Reported | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 1.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 3.0% for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Gross Bookings Growth | Reported | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 0.0% | Same New | Guidance: 5.0% for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Constant Currency Gross Bookings Growth | Reported | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 3.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 3.0% for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 0.0% | Same New | Guidance: 5.0% for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Constant Currency Revenue Growth | Reported | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 3.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 3.0% for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Growth | Reported | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 0.0% | Same New | Guidance: 5.0% for Q2 2026 | |
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/28/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Room Nights Growth | Reported | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | -3.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 6.0% for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Gross Bookings Growth | Reported | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | -10.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 15.0% for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Constant Currency Gross Bookings Growth | Reported | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | -5.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 8.0% for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | -10.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 15.0% for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Constant Currency Revenue Growth | Reported | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | -5.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 8.0% for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Growth | Reported | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | -7.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 12.0% for Q1 2026 | |
| 2026 Gross Bookings Growth | Reported | 8.0% | 9.5% | 11.0% | ||||
| 2026 Constant Currency Gross Bookings Growth | Reported | 8.0% | 8.5% | 9.0% | ||||
| 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | 8.0% | 8.5% | 9.0% | ||||
| 2026 Constant Currency Revenue Growth | Reported | 6.0% | 7.5% | 9.0% | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted EPS Growth | Reported | 12.0% | 13.5% | 15.0% | ||||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/18/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Room Nights Growth | Reported | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 1.0% | Higher New | Actual: 5.0% for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Gross Bookings Growth | Reported | 14.0% | 15.0% | 16.0% | 3.0% | Higher New | Actual: 12.0% for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Constant Currency Gross Bookings Growth | Reported | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% | ||||
| Q1 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | 14.0% | 15.0% | 16.0% | 4.0% | Higher New | Actual: 11.0% for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Constant Currency Revenue Growth | Reported | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% | ||||
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Growth | Reported | 10.0% | 12.0% | 14.0% | ||||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/28/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Room Nights Growth | Reported | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 11.1% | 0.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 4.5% for Q3 2025 |
| Q4 2025 Gross Bookings Growth | Reported | 11.0% | 12.0% | 13.0% | 33.3% | 3.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 9.0% for Q3 2025 |
| Q4 2025 Revenue Growth | Reported | 10.0% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 37.5% | 3.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 8.0% for Q3 2025 |
| Q4 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 2.00 Bil | 2.05 Bil | 2.10 Bil | -48.1% | Lower New | Guidance: 3.95 Bil for Q3 2025 | |
| 2025 Room Nights Growth | Reported | 7.0% | ||||||
| 2025 Gross Bookings Growth | Reported | 11.0% | 11.5% | 12.0% | 15.0% | 1.5% | Raised | Guidance: 10.0% for 2025 |
| 2025 Revenue Growth | Reported | 12.0% | 20.0% | 2.0% | Raised | Guidance: 10.0% for 2025 | ||
Insider Activity
Updated 9/16/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pisano, Paulo | CHIEF HUMAN RESOURCES OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 9162026 | 173.02 | 1,500 | 259,530 | 12,440,138 | Form |
| 2 | Pisano, Paulo | CHIEF HUMAN RESOURCES OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 9012026 | 203.48 | 3,000 | 610,440 | 14,935,432 | Form |
| 3 | Wittman, Vanessa Ames | Direct | Sell | 8182026 | 211.00 | 375 | 79,125 | 3,404,063 | Form | |
| 4 | Millones, Peter J | EXECUTIVE VP, GENERAL COUNSEL | Direct | Sell | 8182026 | 207.59 | 50,050 | 10,390,070 | 77,852,864 | Form |
| 5 | Steenbergen, Ewout L | CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 8132026 | 211.03 | 20,000 | 4,220,516 | 12,618,078 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pisano, Paulo | CHIEF HUMAN RESOURCES OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 9162026 | 173.02 | 1,500 | 259,530 | 12,440,138 | Form |
| 2 | Pisano, Paulo | CHIEF HUMAN RESOURCES OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 9012026 | 203.48 | 3,000 | 610,440 | 14,935,432 | Form |
| 3 | Wittman, Vanessa Ames | Direct | Sell | 8182026 | 211.00 | 375 | 79,125 | 3,404,063 | Form | |
| 4 | Millones, Peter J | EXECUTIVE VP, GENERAL COUNSEL | Direct | Sell | 8182026 | 207.59 | 50,050 | 10,390,070 | 77,852,864 | Form |
| 5 | Steenbergen, Ewout L | CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 8132026 | 211.03 | 20,000 | 4,220,516 | 12,618,078 | Form |
| 6 | Mylod, Robert J JR | Annox Capital, LLC | Sell | 8062026 | 206.70 | 1,000 | 206,700 | 3,100,500 | Form | |
| 7 | Wittman, Vanessa Ames | Direct | Sell | 7292026 | 192.00 | 1,125 | 216,000 | 3,169,536 | Form | |
| 8 | Millones, Peter J | EXECUTIVE VP, GENERAL COUNSEL | Direct | Sell | 5272026 | 163.67 | 62,500 | 10,229,456 | 69,572,577 | Form |
| 9 | Wittman, Vanessa Ames | Direct | Sell | 4212026 | 192.00 | 1,125 | 216,000 | 3,081,600 | Form | |
| 10 | Fogel, Glenn D | CEO AND PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 4162026 | 185.36 | 16,726 | 3,100,294 | 55,268,868 | Form |
| 11 | Fogel, Glenn D | CEO AND PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 3172026 | 4292.10 | 669 | 2,871,413 | 54,063,261 | Form |
| 12 | Fogel, Glenn D | CEO AND PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 4149.75 | 452 | 1,875,688 | 76,948,864 | Form |
| 13 | Fogel, Glenn D | CEO AND PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 4093.72 | 550 | 2,251,544 | 77,760,146 | Form |
| 14 | Fogel, Glenn D | CEO AND PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 4043.49 | 10 | 40,435 | 78,989,577 | Form |
| 15 | Mylod, Robert J JR | Annox Capital, LLC | Sell | 2032026 | 5105.36 | 40 | 204,214 | 4,288,503 | Form | |
| 16 | Fogel, Glenn D | CEO AND PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 1162026 | 5208.09 | 60 | 312,486 | 101,844,265 | Form |
| 17 | Fogel, Glenn D | CEO AND PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 1162026 | 5181.34 | 953 | 4,937,816 | 101,631,954 | Form |
| 18 | Wittman, Vanessa Ames | Direct | Sell | 1162026 | 5191.15 | 15 | 77,867 | 3,566,320 | Form | |
| 19 | Mylod, Robert J JR | Annox Capital, LLC | Sell | 1052026 | 5290.38 | 40 | 211,615 | 4,655,536 | Form | |
| 20 | Fogel, Glenn D | CEO AND PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 12162025 | 5464.94 | 442 | 2,415,502 | 112,402,826 | Form |
| 21 | Fogel, Glenn D | CEO AND PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 12162025 | 5414.53 | 571 | 3,091,695 | 113,759,213 | Form |
| 22 | Wittman, Vanessa Ames | Direct | Sell | 12162025 | 5362.00 | 15 | 80,430 | 3,764,124 | Form | |
| 23 | Mylod, Robert J JR | Annox Capital, LLC | Sell | 12032025 | 5000.00 | 40 | 200,000 | 4,600,000 | Form | |
| 24 | Fogel, Glenn D | CEO AND PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 11192025 | 5062.25 | 170 | 860,582 | 109,248,328 | Form |
| 25 | Fogel, Glenn D | CEO AND PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 11192025 | 5007.69 | 400 | 2,003,074 | 108,922,184 | Form |
| 26 | Fogel, Glenn D | CEO AND PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 11192025 | 4820.35 | 443 | 2,135,414 | 106,775,542 | Form |
| 27 | Wittman, Vanessa Ames | Direct | Sell | 11192025 | 5030.00 | 15 | 75,450 | 3,606,510 | Form | |
| 28 | Mylod, Robert J JR | Annox Capital, LLC | Sell | 11102025 | 5000.00 | 40 | 200,000 | 4,800,000 | Form | |
| 29 | Pisano, Paulo | CHIEF HUMAN RESOURCES OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 11102025 | 5000.00 | 200 | 1,000,000 | 7,570,000 | Form |
| 30 | Fogel, Glenn D | CEO AND PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 10162025 | 5254.04 | 388 | 2,038,568 | 118,709,788 | Form |
| 31 | Fogel, Glenn D | CEO AND PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 10162025 | 5141.53 | 625 | 3,213,454 | 118,162,552 | Form |
| 32 | Wittman, Vanessa Ames | Direct | Sell | 10162025 | 5291.98 | 15 | 79,380 | 3,873,729 | Form | |
| 33 | Fogel, Glenn D | CEO AND PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 9162025 | 5516.92 | 1,013 | 5,588,637 | 130,237,864 | Form |
| 34 | Quinlan, Larry | Revocable Trust | Sell | 9162025 | 5511.80 | 64 | 352,755 | 722,046 | Form | |
| 35 | Wittman, Vanessa Ames | Direct | Sell | 9162025 | 5500.00 | 15 | 82,500 | 4,108,500 | Form | |
| 36 | Quinlan, Larry | Revocable Trust | Sell | 9092025 | 5587.11 | 64 | 357,575 | 1,089,486 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Oct 16, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rothschild & Co Wealth Management UK Ltd | $723.8 Mil | 11.1% | 25 | ADD +20.1% | 13F |
| Prevatt Capital Ltd | $36.5 Mil | 9.8% | 11 | ADD +18.9% | 13F |
| RIT Capital Partners PLC | $36.6 Mil | 9.8% | 12 | TRIM -9.4% | 13F |
| Voyager Global Management LP | $252.6 Mil | 8.6% | 8 | TRIM -7.7% | 13F |
| Harvard Management Co Inc | $147.1 Mil | 8.1% | 17 | Hold | 13F |
| GUARDCAP ASSET MANAGEMENT Ltd | $137.5 Mil | 7.9% | 27 | TRIM -45.5% | 13F |
| BloombergSen Inc. | $65.0 Mil | 7.3% | 27 | Hold | 13F |
| Varenne Capital Partners | $27.1 Mil | 6.7% | 27 | ADD +1000.9% | 13F |
| L1 Capital International Pty Ltd | $99.6 Mil | 5.9% | 23 | Hold | 13F |
| Dorsey Asset Management, LLC | $69.2 Mil | 5.5% | 11 | Hold | 13F |
| Par Capital Management Inc | $179.2 Mil | 5.2% | 45 | ADD +73.9% | 13F |
| C Partners Holding GmbH | $16.2 Mil | 5.1% | 7 | TRIM -27.7% | 13F |
| Wedgewood Partners Inc | $23.2 Mil | 4.8% | 22 | TRIM -5.2% | 13F |
| HS Management Partners, LLC | $12.9 Mil | 4.5% | 24 | TRIM -26.1% | 13F |
| Longview Partners (Guernsey) LTD | $313.4 Mil | 4.4% | 25 | TRIM -18.3% | 13F |
| Local Pensions Partnership Investment Ltd | $184.3 Mil | 4.0% | 32 | Hold | 13F |
| Quantum Capital Management, LLC / NJ | $26.5 Mil | 3.4% | 34 | TRIM -11.9% | 13F |
| MayTech Global Investments, LLC | $26.2 Mil | 3.2% | 23 | Hold | 13F |
| Dundas Partners LLP | $38.3 Mil | 3.1% | 49 | ADD +9.6% | 13F |
| Benchstone Capital Management LP | $23.2 Mil | 2.7% | 38 | ADD +155.3% | 13F |
| Fernbridge Capital Management LP | $30.9 Mil | 2.0% | 17 | TRIM -30.9% | 13F |
| Bender Robert & Associates | $7.5 Mil | 1.8% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Atmos Capital Gestao de Recursos Ltda. | $9.8 Mil | 1.7% | 15 | ADD +2585.0% | 13F |
| DSM Capital Partners LLC | $96.0 Mil | 1.7% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Kensico Capital Management Corp | $82.4 Mil | 1.7% | 20 | New | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kensico Capital Management Corp | $82.4 Mil | 1.7% | 20 | New | 13F |
| Bowie Capital Management, LLC | $32.2 Mil | 1.5% | 29 | New | 13F |
| Atmos Capital Gestao de Recursos Ltda. | $9.8 Mil | 1.7% | 15 | ADD +2585.0% | 13F |
| Varenne Capital Partners | $27.1 Mil | 6.7% | 27 | ADD +1000.9% | 13F |
| Benchstone Capital Management LP | $23.2 Mil | 2.7% | 38 | ADD +155.3% | 13F |
| Metropolis Capital Ltd | $14.0 Mil | 0.5% | 16 | ADD +82.0% | 13F |
| Par Capital Management Inc | $179.2 Mil | 5.2% | 45 | ADD +73.9% | 13F |
| Rothschild & Co Wealth Management UK Ltd | $723.8 Mil | 11.1% | 25 | ADD +20.1% | 13F |
| Prevatt Capital Ltd | $36.5 Mil | 9.8% | 11 | ADD +18.9% | 13F |
| Dundas Partners LLP | $38.3 Mil | 3.1% | 49 | ADD +9.6% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durable Capital Partners LP | $97.9 Mil | 0.9% | 40 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Aspen Grove Capital, LLC | $69.5 Mil | 12.0% | 204 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Crosslink Capital Inc | $19.9 Mil | 1.5% | 20 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Agave Capital Management Ltd | $16.1 Mil | 2.7% | 23 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Stony Point Capital LLC | $15.9 Mil | 1.2% | 31 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Firetrail Investments PTY LTD | $11.9 Mil | 3.9% | 29 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Rovida Investment Management Ltd | $5.4 Mil | 0.7% | 17 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| CTC LLC | $18.6 Mil | 1.5% | 25 | TRIM -55.5% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Lone Pine Capital LLC | $10.1 Mil | 0.1% | 36 | TRIM -48.1% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| GUARDCAP ASSET MANAGEMENT Ltd | $137.5 Mil | 7.9% | 27 | TRIM -45.5% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Fernbridge Capital Management LP | $30.9 Mil | 2.0% | 17 | TRIM -30.9% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| C Partners Holding GmbH | $16.2 Mil | 5.1% | 7 | TRIM -27.7% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| HS Management Partners, LLC | $12.9 Mil | 4.5% | 24 | TRIM -26.1% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Longview Partners (Guernsey) LTD | $313.4 Mil | 4.4% | 25 | TRIM -18.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Quantum Capital Management, LLC / NJ | $26.5 Mil | 3.4% | 34 | TRIM -11.9% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| RIT Capital Partners PLC | $36.6 Mil | 9.8% | 12 | TRIM -9.4% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Troy Asset Management Ltd | $32.1 Mil | 1.0% | 30 | TRIM -7.9% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Voyager Global Management LP | $252.6 Mil | 8.6% | 8 | TRIM -7.7% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Wedgewood Partners Inc | $23.2 Mil | 4.8% | 22 | TRIM -5.2% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rothschild & Co Wealth Management UK Ltd | $723.8 Mil | 11.1% | 25 | ADD +20.1% | 13F |
| Longview Partners (Guernsey) LTD | $313.4 Mil | 4.4% | 25 | TRIM -18.3% | 13F |
| Voyager Global Management LP | $252.6 Mil | 8.6% | 8 | TRIM -7.7% | 13F |
| Local Pensions Partnership Investment Ltd | $184.3 Mil | 4.0% | 32 | Hold | 13F |
| Par Capital Management Inc | $179.2 Mil | 5.2% | 45 | ADD +73.9% | 13F |
| Harvard Management Co Inc | $147.1 Mil | 8.1% | 17 | Hold | 13F |
| GUARDCAP ASSET MANAGEMENT Ltd | $137.5 Mil | 7.9% | 27 | TRIM -45.5% | 13F |
| L1 Capital International Pty Ltd | $99.6 Mil | 5.9% | 23 | Hold | 13F |
| DSM Capital Partners LLC | $96.0 Mil | 1.7% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Kensico Capital Management Corp | $82.4 Mil | 1.7% | 20 | New | 13F |
| Dorsey Asset Management, LLC | $69.2 Mil | 5.5% | 11 | Hold | 13F |
| BloombergSen Inc. | $65.0 Mil | 7.3% | 27 | Hold | 13F |
| Sanders Capital, LLC | $50.4 Mil | 0.1% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Dundas Partners LLP | $38.3 Mil | 3.1% | 49 | ADD +9.6% | 13F |
| RIT Capital Partners PLC | $36.6 Mil | 9.8% | 12 | TRIM -9.4% | 13F |
| Prevatt Capital Ltd | $36.5 Mil | 9.8% | 11 | ADD +18.9% | 13F |
| Bowie Capital Management, LLC | $32.2 Mil | 1.5% | 29 | New | 13F |
| Troy Asset Management Ltd | $32.1 Mil | 1.0% | 30 | TRIM -7.9% | 13F |
| Fernbridge Capital Management LP | $30.9 Mil | 2.0% | 17 | TRIM -30.9% | 13F |
| Varenne Capital Partners | $27.1 Mil | 6.7% | 27 | ADD +1000.9% | 13F |
| Quantum Capital Management, LLC / NJ | $26.5 Mil | 3.4% | 34 | TRIM -11.9% | 13F |
| MayTech Global Investments, LLC | $26.2 Mil | 3.2% | 23 | Hold | 13F |
| Wedgewood Partners Inc | $23.2 Mil | 4.8% | 22 | TRIM -5.2% | 13F |
| Benchstone Capital Management LP | $23.2 Mil | 2.7% | 38 | ADD +155.3% | 13F |
| CTC LLC | $18.6 Mil | 1.5% | 25 | TRIM -55.5% | 13F |
BKNG Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Booking's growth is slowing due to travel headwinds, but its profitability remains elite with 34.5% operating margins. The 'Connected Trip' strategy is showing early success, with multi-vertical bookings growing in the low-double-digits. Strong execution and massive share repurchases provide support while the company navigates this transition.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Transactional Take-Rate(Number of Units Booked) x (Average Value per Unit) x (Effective Take-Rate) Operating leverage from scale and marketing efficiency, particularly the mix of direct vs. paid traffic.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests yes. While core growth is slowing, the integrated travel offering is expanding and profitability remains at a five-year peak.
- Trailing-twelve-month operating margin is 34.5%, a five-year peak for the company.
- Connected Trip transactions grew in the low double-digit range in Q2 2026.
- The basic share count has been reduced by 16.2% over the last three years.
- Management beat its Q2 guidance and raised its Q3 outlook for room nights growth.
- Free cash flow was over the trailing twelve months.
PRIMARY RISK
Room night growth has slowed for three straight quarters, from 9% to 5.3%, and Q3 guidance points to further deceleration to 3-5%. This may signal market saturation or share loss to competitors and new AI-powered travel agents, which could structurally impair growth and margins.
- Q2 2026 room night growth of 5.3% decelerated from 6% in Q1 and 9% in Q4 2025.
- Q3 2026 guidance is for room night growth to slow further to a 3% to 5% range.
- Peer Airbnb reported 10% growth in nights and seats booked in the same quarter.
- Management expects traffic from unpaid search results to decline in the short to medium term.
- The company is designated a 'gatekeeper' in the EU, increasing regulatory risk.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Room Nights Growth | 5% year-over-year for Q2 2026 - Decelerating | Management stated the slowdown reflects pressure on long-haul international travel due to the conflict in the Middle East, while domestic and intra-regional travel remained relatively healthy. |
| Gross Bookings Growth | 9% year-over-year for Q2 2026 - Decelerating | The deceleration in total transaction value mirrors the slowdown in Room Nights, with management citing geopolitical conflict as a primary headwind impacting travel demand. |
| Room Nights Booked | (Q2 2026) | Measures the volume of accommodation reservations, a primary driver of revenue and a key indicator of consumer demand and market share. |
| Total Gross Bookings | (Q2 2026) | Represents the total dollar value of all travel services booked by customers, net of cancellations. It is a key indicator of the overall scale and growth of transaction volume on the platform. |
| Trailing-Twelve-Month Revenue Growth | 12.9% (TTM ended 6/30/2026) | Indicates the year-over-year growth rate of the company's top line over the last four quarters, smoothing out quarterly seasonality. |
Profit Engine vs. Slowing Growth
BULL VIEW
Bulls focus on elite 34.5% operating margins, strong execution beating guidance, and aggressive buybacks funded by free cash flow. They see the 'Connected Trip' as a durable new growth layer.
CORE TENSION
Can elite profitability and capital returns offset decelerating room night growth, which the market punished in early 2026 but rewarded in August?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest quarter favors the bulls. The company beat its own guidance, raised its outlook for Q3 room nights, and the stock reacted positively.
BEAR VIEW
Bears see decelerating room night growth (from 9% to 5.3%) and guidance for 3-5% as a structural problem, not a blip. They fear AI and peer competition are eroding the moat.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
by October 2026 | French Regulatory Deadline Watch: Company disclosure on compliance, any associated costs or business impact, and whether the deadline is met or extended. |
10/20/2026 | Peer Demand Read-Through Watch: Hilton's reported RevPAR, room night growth, and management commentary on regional travel trends, particularly in Europe and the U.S. |
by October 2026 | Agoda French Regulatory Deadline Watch: The French Directorate General for Competition Policy, Consumer Affairs, and Fraud Control (DGCCRF) issued a final order for Agoda to change certain business practices. |
10/26/2026 | Decelerating Growth Confirmation Watch: Whether reported Q3 room night growth meets the low end of the 3-5% guided range and commentary on Q4 trends. |
10/26/2026 | Organic Search Headwinds Watch: Marketing expense as a percentage of gross bookings in the Q3 report, and any updated commentary on SEO vs paid channel mix. |
11/2/2026 | Marriott International Earnings Report Watch: Peer company Marriott International (MAR) is scheduled to report earnings. |
11/4/2026 | Peer Earnings Reports Watch: Peer companies Tripadvisor, Expedia, and Airbnb are scheduled to report earnings. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-08-04 | Q3 Guidance Update Details: On August 4, 2026, the company issued guidance changes for Q3 2026, raising its outlook for Room Nights Growth and Constant Currency metrics for Gross Bookings and Revenue. | +7.4% $192.71 -> $207.02 |
2026-08-04 | Q2 2026 Earnings Beat Details: On August 4, 2026, the company reported Q2 results, with revenue up 8.1% and adjusted EPS beating estimates. The stock reacted positively, up 7.0% over two days. | +7.4% $192.71 -> $207.02 |
2026-06-25 | Analyst Commentary on AI Threat Details: On June 25, 2026, an analyst note argued that the AI disintermediation threat is overstated, citing Booking's dominant position, loyalty programs, and direct app engagement. | +0.1% $181.25 -> $181.46 |
2026-05-05 | Nextech3D.ai Partnership Announced Details: On May 5, 2026, a press report detailed that Nextech3D.ai integrated AI-enabled hotel booking using HotelPlanner infrastructure and inventory from Expedia, Priceline, and Booking.com. | +1.7% $165.16 -> $167.90 |
2026-04-28 | Q1 2026 Earnings Report Details: The company reported its first quarter 2026 earnings on April 28, 2026. The two-day stock reaction around the earnings call was -2.0%. | -2.0% $177.07 -> $173.54 |
2026-04-28 | Middle East Conflict Impact Details: The conflict in the Middle East began to affect travel demand trends in March 2026, impacting room night growth by an estimated 6 percentage points for that month. | -2.0% $177.07 -> $173.54 |
2026-02-18 | Q4 2025 Earnings Report Details: The company reported its fourth quarter 2025 earnings on February 18, 2026. The two-day stock reaction around the earnings call was -3.0%. | -3.2% $164.81 -> $159.53 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: BKNG trades at roughly 35% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 13% for the S&P 500 (2.7x the market), around the 56th percentile of its own trailing year. A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
ABNB - Airbnb
Higher Growth AlternativeAirbnb offers more direct exposure to the alternative accommodations market and has demonstrated faster recent growth, with nights and seats booked up 10%.
EXPE - Expedia
U.S. & B FocusExpedia provides a similar online travel agency model but with a stronger position in the U.S. market and a rapidly growing B segment.
A highly profitable global travel toll road, leveraging its massive scale and brand portfolio to navigate market shifts while investing in AI and integrated services (the 'Connected Trip') to defend against disintermediation.
Booking Holdings operates the world's leading online travel marketplace, benefiting from a powerful network effect between travelers and property owners. The company is strategically shifting to a merchant model to enable its 'Connected Trip' vision, aiming to create a seamless, multi-vertical travel experience. While facing threats from large tech companies and AI, its profitability, direct traffic, and investments in its own AI capabilities provide a strong defense and path for future growth.
Sustained or accelerating room night growth, continued expansion of operating margins despite the merchant mix shift, and evidence of increased customer loyalty and direct bookings from the 'Connected Trip' and Genius programs.
Evidence of market share loss to direct booking channels or new AI-powered travel agents, significant negative regulatory actions in key markets like the EU, or a sustained downturn in global travel demand.
Short-term fluctuations in travel demand due to specific geopolitical events (like the Middle East conflict mentioned in Q2), quarterly variations in marketing spend, and foreign exchange rate movements.
Repricing Catalyst
Successful execution of the 'Connected Trip' vision and deployment of proprietary AI tools that demonstrably improve customer experience, conversion, and loyalty, thereby solidifying its direct-to-consumer channel and defending its moat against new entrants.
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines Resources |
| Skift |
| Hotel News Now |
| Cruise Industry News |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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