ADT (ADT)

Market Price (11/7/2026): $9.88 | Market Cap: $7.2 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Specialized Consumer Services

ADT (ADT)

Market Price (11/7/2026): $9.88
Market Cap: $7.2 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Specialized Consumer Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 2.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.7%, FCF Yield is 22%

Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 25%

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 41%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, CFO LTM is 2.1 Bil

Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.5 Bil

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 44%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include IoT for Buildings, and Remote Patient Monitoring.

Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -0.4%, Dist 3Y High is -0.4%

Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 105%

Key risks
ADT key risks include [1] a high debt load nearly three times the industry average and [2] multiple recent cybersecurity incidents that compromised employee and customer data.

0	Attractive yield Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 2.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.7%, FCF Yield is 22%
1	Attractive operating margins Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 25%
2	Attractive cash flow generation CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 41%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, CFO LTM is 2.1 Bil
3	Stock buyback support Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.5 Bil
4	Low stock price volatility Vol 12M is 44%
5	Megatrend and thematic drivers Megatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include IoT for Buildings, and Remote Patient Monitoring.
6	Trading close to highs Dist 52W High is -0.4%, Dist 3Y High is -0.4%
7	Debt is significant Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 105%
8	Key risks ADT key risks include [1] a high debt load nearly three times the industry average and [2] multiple recent cybersecurity incidents that compromised employee and customer data.

ADT in ETFs

Weight = ADT's share of each fund

VTI0.01%

ITOT0.01%

IWB0.01%

IJR0.30%

VYM0.01%

VB0.05%

NUSC0.41%

IJS0.38%

+17 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

FYE: 12/31	Forward FYE		Now	Historical (CYE & TTM)
	2027	2026	11/7/26	2025	2024	2023	2022
Share Price			$9.88	$8.07	$6.91	$6.82	$9.07
Mkt Cap ($ Bil)			7.2	6.6	6.1	6.2	8.2
+ Debt ($ Bil)			7.8	7.7	7.7	7.8	9.8
- Cash ($ Bil)			0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.3
TEV ($ Bil)			14.8	14.3	13.8	14.0	18.0
Valuation Ratios
P/S	1.3	1.4	1.4	1.3	1.3	1.3	1.7
P/EBIT	4.5	4.7	5.6	5.1	4.9	6.8	12.1
P/E	8.2	8.7	11.7	11.1	12.2	13.4	62.0
P/FCF	—	—	4.5	5.0	5.1	7.3	8.4
Sector Ratios (* = sector average)
P/S *			0.8	0.9	0.8	0.9	0.8
P/EBIT *			8.6	8.5	8.3	7.9	6.2
P/E *			11.8	12.1	11.8	11.1	7.9
P/FCF *			9.9	12.1	13.0	9.9	6.9

FYE: 12/31	Forward FYE		Now
	2027	2026	11/7/26
Share Price			$9.88
Mkt Cap ($ Bil)			7.2
+ Debt ($ Bil)			7.8
- Cash ($ Bil)			0.2
TEV ($ Bil)			14.8
Valuation Ratios
P/S	1.3	1.4	1.4
P/EBIT	4.5	4.7	5.6
P/E	8.2	8.7	11.7
P/FCF	—	—	4.5
Sector Ratios (* = sector average)
P/S *			0.8
P/EBIT *			8.6
P/E *			11.8
P/FCF *			9.9

FYE: 12/31	ADT [1]	S&P 500 [2]
REVENUE GROWTH
LTM Revenue [3]	$5.2 Bil	—
FY 2026 Sales	$5.2 Bil	—
FY 2027 Sales	$5.4 Bil	—
FY 2026 Sales Growth	0.3%	—
FY 2027 Sales Growth	2.6%	8.7%
EARNINGS
LTM Net Income (GAAP) [3]	$618.2 Mil	—
FY 2026 Net Income (Non-GAAP)	$832.8 Mil	—
FY 2027 Net Income (Non-GAAP)	$884.0 Mil	—
FY 2027 Net Income Growth	6.1%	13.9%
FY 2026 EPS (Non-GAAP)	$0.93	—
FY 2027 EPS (Non-GAAP)	$0.99	—
FY 2027 EPS Growth	6.1%	—
VALUATION
FY 2026 P/S	1.4	1.7
FY 2027 P/S	1.3	—
FY 2026 P/E	8.7	8.7
FY 2027 P/E	8.2	—

[1] ADT forward figures are analyst consensus for the next two fiscal years (fiscal year end 12/31). Net Income and EPS are non-GAAP (adjusted) consensus. P/S and P/E divide the current market cap by the consensus figure.
[2] S&P 500 figures are the SPY ETF's holdings-weighted forward aggregate. P/S and P/E reflect FY1/FY2 consensus blended to the 12-month window ending 11/30/27 (~one year forward), shown when ≥90% of index weight has estimates. Growth is the aggregate next-fiscal-year vs current-fiscal-year (FY1→FY2) change. Index-level dollar Sales, Net Income and EPS are not applicable.
[3] LTM = reported trailing-twelve-month actuals (GAAP).

	ADT	S&P 500
REVENUE GROWTH	POOR
Rev LTM ($ Bil)	5.2
Rev Chg Q	3.9%	8.9%
Rev Chg LTM	2.0%	8.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg	8.0%	6.4%
PROFITABILITY	GOOD
Op Inc LTM ($ Bil)	1.3
CFO LTM ($ Bil)	2.1
Net Inc LTM ($ Bil)	0.6
Op Mgn LTM	24.6%	18.9%
CFO/Rev LTM	40.6%	21.5%
Net Inc Mgn	11.9%	13.5%
VALUATION	LOW
P/S	1.4	3.2
P/CFO	3.4	15.1
P/FCF	4.5	20.2
P/E	11.7	22.3
STABILITY	POOR
Debt/Equity	1.08	0.19
Cash/Assets	0.01	0.07

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Metric	Value	Date	Source
Recurring Monthly Revenue (RMR)	362 million	9302025	Link
Gross Customer Revenue Attrition	13.0%	9302025	Link
Revenue Payback	2.3 years	9302025	Link
Number of Subscribers	6.3 million	9302025	Link
Gross Subscriber Additions	210,000	9302025	Link
Average Customer Tenure	approximately 8 years	11042025	Link
ADT+ Platform Penetration (New Customers)	25%	9302025	Link

Price Chart

Upcoming
3/01/2027	Earnings Release	Rev: $1.0 Bil (E) EPS: $0.25 (E)

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

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Updated on 11/3/2026

ADT (ADT) stock has gained about 30% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Acquisition by Thrive Holdings at a Significant Premium.

The primary catalyst for ADT's stock surge was the announcement on October 29, 2026, that it entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by Thrive Holdings in an all-cash transaction. ADT stockholders are set to receive $10.00 per share, which represents a substantial premium of 45.6% to ADT's unaffected closing share price of $6.87 on October 27, 2026, and a 52.1% premium to its 30-day volume-weighted average share price ending on October 27, 2026. The deal values ADT's equity at approximately $7.6 billion and its enterprise value at $15.3 billion, fundamentally reshaping the investment outlook from operational fundamentals to a cash exit. The transaction is anticipated to close in fiscal Q1 2027.

2. Strong Fiscal Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results.

ADT reported robust financial performance for its fiscal Q3 2026 (period ended September 30, 2026), with results released on November 3, 2026. The company's total revenue increased 3.9% year-over-year to $1.35 billion, surpassing analysts' consensus estimates of $1.32 billion. Additionally, ADT's adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.24 was in line with or slightly exceeded consensus estimates of $0.23. The company demonstrated strong cash generation, with adjusted free cash flow (including interest rate swaps) increasing 4% year-over-year to $217 million for the quarter, and year-to-date adjusted free cash flow exceeding $1 billion, representing a 46% increase from the prior year.

3. Strategic Initiatives and Shareholder Capital Returns.

ADT continued to advance its strategic initiatives and commitment to shareholder returns during the period. The company made investments in AI and next-generation sensing technologies, and expanded its digital and retail distribution channels. Notably, ADT Blu expanded its availability to Walmart.com in fiscal Q3 2026, broadening consumer access to its DIY security offerings. Financially, ADT enhanced its flexibility by securing $100 million of incremental borrowings under its First Lien Term Loan A due 2030 in August. Furthermore, ADT returned significant capital to shareholders, repurchasing 3 million shares for $23 million during fiscal Q3 2026, contributing to a year-to-date total of $748 million returned through share repurchases and dividends.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 30.1% change in ADT stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 23.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.

(LTM values as of)	7312026	11062026	Change
Stock Price ($)	7.58	9.86	30.1%
Change Contribution By:
Total Revenues ($ Mil)	5,165	5,216	1.0%
Net Income Margin (%)	11.9%	11.9%	-0.1%
P/E Multiple	9.4	11.7	23.8%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)	761	731	4.1%
Cumulative Contribution			30.1%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2026 to 11/6/2026

	Return	Correlation
ADT	30.1%
Market (SPY)	-1.6%	0.2%
Sector (XLY)	1.3%	18.2%

Fundamental Drivers

The 33.1% change in ADT stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 20.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.

(LTM values as of)	4302026	11062026	Change
Stock Price ($)	7.41	9.86	33.1%
Change Contribution By:
Total Revenues ($ Mil)	5,140	5,216	1.5%
Net Income Margin (%)	12.1%	11.9%	-2.4%
P/E Multiple	9.7	11.7	20.5%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)	814	731	11.4%
Cumulative Contribution			33.1%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

4/30/2026 to 11/6/2026

	Return	Correlation
ADT	33.1%
Market (SPY)	2.6%	2.7%
Sector (XLY)	-0.5%	21.6%

Fundamental Drivers

The 15.1% change in ADT stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 13.9% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).

(LTM values as of)	10312025	11062026	Change
Stock Price ($)	8.57	9.86	15.1%
Change Contribution By:
Total Revenues ($ Mil)	5,059	5,216	3.1%
Net Income Margin (%)	12.3%	11.9%	-3.7%
P/E Multiple	11.5	11.7	1.8%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)	832	731	13.9%
Cumulative Contribution			15.1%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2025 to 11/6/2026

	Return	Correlation
ADT	15.1%
Market (SPY)	8.7%	16.7%
Sector (XLY)	-1.4%	29.5%

Fundamental Drivers

The 90.3% change in ADT stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 24.8% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).

(LTM values as of)	10312023	11062026	Change
Stock Price ($)	5.18	9.86	90.3%
Change Contribution By:
Total Revenues ($ Mil)	4,266	5,216	22.3%
P/S Multiple	1.1	1.4	24.7%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)	912	731	24.8%
Cumulative Contribution			90.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2023 to 11/6/2026

	Return	Correlation
ADT	90.3%
Market (SPY)	81.9%	30.2%
Sector (XLY)	58.2%	37.9%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	Total [1]
Returns
ADT Return	9%	10%	-23%	5%	20%	25%	44%
Peers Return	19%	-22%	12%	14%	21%	5%	52%
S&P 500 Return	27%	-19%	24%	23%	16%	12%	105%
Monthly Win Rates [3]
ADT Win Rate	58%	50%	42%	42%	67%	36%
Peers Win Rate	60%	37%	45%	45%	52%	51%
S&P 500 Win Rate	75%	42%	67%	75%	67%	45%
Max Drawdowns [4]
ADT Max Drawdown	-33%	-28%	-47%	-17%	-12%	-25%
Peers Max Drawdown	-20%	-37%	-24%	-18%	-23%	-29%
S&P 500 Max Drawdown	-5%	-25%	-10%	-8%	-19%	-9%

[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: JCI, HON, ALLE, ALRM, REZI. See ADT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/6/2026 (YTD)

Event	ADT	S&P 500
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
% Loss	-11.3%	-9.5%
% Gain to Breakeven	12.8%	10.5%
Time to Breakeven	1 days	24 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
% Loss	-38.2%	-6.7%
% Gain to Breakeven	61.8%	7.1%
Time to Breakeven	539 days	31 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
% Loss	-26.2%	-24.5%
% Gain to Breakeven	35.5%	32.4%
Time to Breakeven	82 days	427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
% Loss	-48.1%	-33.7%
% Gain to Breakeven	92.5%	50.9%
Time to Breakeven	70 days	140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
% Loss	-31.5%	-19.2%
% Gain to Breakeven	45.9%	23.8%
Time to Breakeven	333 days	105 days

Compare to JCI, HON, ALLE, ALRM, REZI

In The Past

ADT's stock fell -1.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 1.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

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Event	ADT	S&P 500
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
% Loss	-38.2%	-6.7%
% Gain to Breakeven	61.8%	7.1%
Time to Breakeven	539 days	31 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
% Loss	-26.2%	-24.5%
% Gain to Breakeven	35.5%	32.4%
Time to Breakeven	82 days	427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
% Loss	-48.1%	-33.7%
% Gain to Breakeven	92.5%	50.9%
Time to Breakeven	70 days	140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
% Loss	-31.5%	-19.2%
% Gain to Breakeven	45.9%	23.8%
Time to Breakeven	333 days	105 days

Compare to JCI, HON, ALLE, ALRM, REZI

In The Past

ADT's stock fell -1.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 1.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About ADT (ADT)

Business Description Analogies Products Customers Suppliers Management Key Risks Emerging Threats Market Size Revenue Drivers Capital Allocation

ADT Inc. is a well-established American company providing comprehensive security, automation, and smart home solutions primarily within the United States. Founded in 1874, ADT's core business involves safeguarding residential, commercial, and multi-site properties through continuously monitored systems and services designed to detect and respond to a wide array of threats and emergencies.

The company's main products and services include the installation and monitoring of security systems for intrusion detection, access control, and environmental sensing (e.g., smoke, fire, carbon monoxide, flooding, temperature). Beyond traditional security, ADT offers interactive and smart home solutions, allowing customers to remotely manage their security systems, adjust home settings like lighting and thermostats, view live video feeds, and automate connected devices such as appliances and garage doors via smart devices. They also provide dedicated fire detection and suppression systems, video surveillance, and access control systems for various needs.

ADT serves a diverse customer base, encompassing individual consumers and businesses of all sizes, operating under brand names like ADT, ADT Pulse, Protection 1, ADT Commercial, and Blue by ADT. With a robust operational network comprising approximately 250 sales and service offices, multiple distribution centers, and nine UL-listed monitoring centers across the U.S., ADT ensures wide coverage and reliable support for its extensive range of protective and smart living solutions.

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A professionally installed and monitored version of Ring or Nest.

The Xfinity Home or AT&T Digital Life of dedicated security and smart home solutions.

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Monitored Security Solutions: Provides continuous surveillance and alerts for intrusion, fire, carbon monoxide, flooding, and personal emergencies.
Smart Home & Automation Solutions: Enables remote control and automated scheduling of lighting, thermostats, appliances, and other connected devices via smart devices.
Video Surveillance Systems: Offers real-time video monitoring capabilities for premises.
Access Control Systems: Manages entry and exit points for enhanced security.
Fire Suppression Systems: Provides equipment and services to detect and extinguish fires.
Maintenance Services: Ensures the ongoing functionality and reliability of installed security and automation systems.

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ADT Inc. sells primarily to individuals and serves the following major customer categories:

Residential Security Customers: Individuals and families seeking comprehensive security solutions for their homes, including systems designed to detect intrusion, fire, carbon monoxide, flooding, and other environmental hazards.
Smart Home Users: Consumers who leverage ADT's interactive and smart home solutions to integrate security with home automation, allowing them to control various connected devices like lighting, thermostats, appliances, and cameras via smartphones, tablets, and laptops.
Personal Emergency Response Service Users: Individuals who rely on ADT's systems for immediate assistance in case of personal emergencies, such as injuries, medical incidents, or incapacitation within their premises.

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Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)

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Jim DeVries, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer

Jim DeVries joined ADT in 2016 as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, was appointed President in September 2017, CEO in December 2018, and Chairman in 2023. Prior to joining ADT, he spent nearly a decade at Allstate Insurance Company, serving as Executive Vice President of Operations as well as Executive Vice President and Chief Administrative Officer. He has also held senior leadership roles in the financial services and telecommunications industries, including Senior Vice President of Human Resources at Principal Financial Group and Vice President for Corporate Services and Human Resources at Ameritech's Monitoring and Security Services Division.

Jeff Likosar, President, Corporate Development and Transformation, and Chief Financial Officer

Jeff Likosar was reappointed Chief Financial Officer in April 2024, having served as interim CFO since December 2023. He previously held the CFO position at ADT from 2017 to 2022. He has been an integral part of ADT's leadership team since 2016. Along with his CFO responsibilities, Likosar remains responsible for corporate development, strategy, and transformation execution.

Fawad Ahmad, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating and Customer Officer

Fawad Ahmad was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Operating and Customer Officer in April 2025. He is responsible for leading ADT's operations organization, including field technicians, remote service, call center teams, IT, and procurement. Ahmad brings over 20 years of experience in building global products and leading digital transformations. Before joining ADT, he served as Chief Strategy & Transformation Officer at State Farm.

Omar Khan, Executive Vice President and Chief Business Officer

Omar Khan was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Business Officer in March 2025. In this role, he leads ADT's product, innovation, business development, and engineering teams. Prior to ADT, Khan served as a Senior Advisor at Boston Consulting Group (BCG) and held leadership roles at Magic Leap, Samsung, Motorola, and Healthy MD. He has a background in strategic planning, business development, and emerging technologies.

David Smail, Executive Vice President, Chief Legal Officer and Secretary

David Smail has served as Executive Vice President, Chief Legal Officer and Secretary since February 2019. He possesses over 30 years of legal experience both in the U.S. and internationally, including 10 years of law firm corporate and securities transactional practice and more than 20 years in public company general counsel roles. From August 2015 to September 2018, he served as Executive Vice President & Chief Legal Officer for Scientific Games Corporation. His previous roles also include Executive Vice President & General Counsel at Morgans Hotel Group and Executive Vice President and Group General Counsel of Havas S.A.

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Here are the key risks to ADT's business:

Key Risks to ADT Inc.

Intense Competition and the Rise of DIY Solutions: ADT operates in a highly competitive security and smart home industry, facing pressure from both traditional rivals and an increasing number of new entrants, particularly those offering self-monitored and do-it-yourself (DIY) security alternatives. This competitive landscape can limit ADT's pricing power, threaten its market position, and contribute to customer attrition, challenging its traditional installation and fee-based monitoring model.
Technological Innovation and Integration Challenges: The rapid pace of technological change in the security and smart home sector necessitates continuous investment in research and development and the delivery of next-generation products. ADT's ability to successfully innovate, keep its technology current, and integrate new solutions—such as AI, IoT devices, and its strategic partnership with Google—is crucial for maintaining competitiveness and future growth. Delays or failures in IT modernization and product development could disrupt operations and negatively impact financial performance.
High Levels of Indebtedness: ADT carries a substantial amount of debt, which can restrict its financial and operational flexibility. This high debt load limits the company's ability to respond swiftly to market changes or invest aggressively in growth opportunities, and requires a significant portion of its cash flow for debt servicing.

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The proliferation and increasing consumer adoption of DIY (Do-It-Yourself) smart home security systems offered by companies like Ring (owned by Amazon), SimpliSafe, and Arlo. These systems often provide more affordable equipment, easier self-installation, and flexible or lower-cost monitoring options, directly competing with ADT's traditional professionally installed and monitored, often higher-cost, solutions.

The increasing integration of smart home security functionalities into broader consumer technology ecosystems by major tech companies (e.g., Amazon with Ring and Alexa, Google with Nest and Google Home). These tech giants leverage their extensive customer bases, brand recognition, and platforms to offer comprehensive smart home solutions that include security features, potentially sidelining traditional security providers.

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Here are the addressable market sizes for ADT's main products and services in the U.S. region:

Residential Security Market (U.S.): The US interactive residential security market is forecast to increase by USD 2.97 billion between 2023 and 2028, with a CAGR of 10.26%. The residential security market is projected to grow at a 7.9% CAGR from 2025 to 2035. Approximately 94 million U.S. households utilize some form of security system, including cameras, alarms, or access control tools.
Commercial Security System Market (U.S.): The U.S. Commercial Security System Market is projected to grow from USD 78.32 billion in 2025 to USD 145.91 billion by 2033, at a CAGR of 8.12%. Another report states the U.S. market is projected to reach USD 93.38 billion by 2030. The global commercial security system market size was estimated at USD 202.23 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 540.47 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 11.8% from 2025 to 2033. North America dominated the commercial security system market with over 30% share in 2022.
Smart Home Market (U.S.): The U.S. smart home market size was estimated at USD 23.72 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 23.4% from 2025 to 2030, reaching USD 84.20 billion by 2030. Another estimate places the U.S. smart home market size at USD 36.38 billion in 2024, projected to reach approximately USD 403.09 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 27.19% from 2025 to 2034. The U.S. Smart Home Market is valued at approximately USD 25 billion. The United States Smart Home Security Market reached USD 3.26 billion in 2024 and is estimated to attain USD 8.26 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 10.83% from 2025 to 2033.
Fire Protection System Market (U.S.): The U.S. fire protection system market size was estimated at USD 25.94 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.6% from 2025 to 2030. The U.S. fire suppression system market is valued at USD 6.4 billion. Another source reported the U.S. fire suppression system market size was valued at USD 6.49 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 2.9% from 2024 to 2030. The US Fire Protection Systems Market is predicted to reach USD 84 billion by 2035, at a 12.34% CAGR.
Video Surveillance Market (U.S.): The U.S. Video Surveillance Market is valued at USD 10.99 billion. Other reports indicate the U.S. video surveillance market is expected to be valued at USD 11.27 billion in 2024 and projected to reach USD 18.06 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 8.2%. Another projection for the United States Video Surveillance Market size in 2026 is USD 15.53 billion, growing to USD 27.45 billion by 2031 at a CAGR of 12.07%. The United States Video Surveillance Market will reach US$ 50.54 billion by 2032, up from US$ 18.57 billion in 2023.
Access Control Market (U.S.): The U.S. access control market generated a revenue of USD 2.62 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 3.68 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 6% from 2025 to 2030. Another report states the United States access control market size reached USD 2.72 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 3.86 billion by 2034, exhibiting a growth rate (CAGR) of 3.83% during 2026-2034. One source estimates the US access control market size at USD 3.28 billion in 2024, projected to grow to USD 8.34 billion by 2035, exhibiting a CAGR of 8.8% during the forecast period 2025-2035. The US access control market size in 2026 is estimated at USD 3.94 billion, with projections showing USD 4.81 billion by 2031, growing at 4.05% CAGR over 2026-2031.

AI Analysis | Feedback

ADT (symbol: ADT) is focused on several key drivers to fuel its revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, despite anticipating flat revenue and earnings per share in 2026 as it transitions and invests in these initiatives. The company aims for a multi-year financial framework targeting 5% annual revenue growth. Here are the expected drivers of future revenue growth: * Expansion of ADT+ and next-generation smart home security platforms: ADT is investing in and developing ADT+, a next-generation smart home security platform, along with new features such as Live Light and My Safety. The acquisition of Origin AI is also intended to integrate ambient intelligence into its proprietary platform, enhancing its smart home offerings. * Growth in commercial and solar segments: The company's long-term strategy emphasizes expanding its reach across consumer and small business, commercial, and solar segments. This strategy leverages the existing momentum from its partnership with Google and its commercial and solar ventures. * Introduction of bundled services and innovative offerings: ADT plans to introduce more flexible and comprehensive bundled services. These new offerings will integrate smart home security with energy management, as well as mobile, vehicle security, and smart aging products, providing greater customer choice and potentially increasing average revenue per user. * Investments in customer acquisition efficiency and new sales channels: ADT is focusing on improving its customer acquisition efficiency through targeted marketing to new segments and refining its channel strategy. This includes expanding into e-commerce and do-it-yourself (DIY) channels, with DIY already showing significant growth. * Leveraging AI and automation for an enhanced customer experience: While primarily aimed at efficiency and improved alarm handling, the strategic expansion of AI in customer service and sales/marketing is expected to be transformational, leading to better customer retention and potentially attracting new customers through a superior service experience.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Share Repurchases

In 2025, ADT repurchased and retired 78 million shares of its common stock for an aggregate price of $604 million.
Since January 2024, ADT repurchased $846 million in shares.
In March 2026, ADT authorized a new three-year share repurchase program of $1.5 billion.


Share Issuance

While no large-scale share issuances for capital raising were identified, employee stock options were granted in March 2026, including 4,793,066 options to the CEO and 445,103 options to an EVP.
The number of shares outstanding declined by 8.72% year-over-year to 0.883 billion by Q3 2025, indicating that share repurchases have largely offset any issuances.


Inbound Investments

No significant third-party inbound investments (such as a private equity firm or strategic partner injecting equity) with specific dollar amounts were found in the last 3-5 years, beyond a strategic partnership with State Farm.


Outbound Investments

In February 2026, ADT acquired Origin AI to integrate ambient sensing capabilities into its offerings.
In December 2023, ADT completed a strategic bulk purchase of approximately 57,000 customer accounts for $89 million cash.
ADT anticipates allocating more capital to mergers and acquisitions in the future.


Capital Expenditures

In Q4 2025, ADT Inc. invested $50.1 million in capital expenditures.
For 2026, ADT plans to invest roughly $50 million across product, service, and go-to-market initiatives.
Capital expenditures are defined to include accounts purchased through dealer networks or third parties, subscriber system asset expenditures, and purchases of property and equipment.



	
		
			
				
					
					 Interactive Breakdown
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				 Better Bets vs. ADT (ADT)
				
					By Industry
					By Sector
					All Other Sectors
					Sector Best Bets
				
				
										
				
					
						INDUSTRY: Specialized Consumer Services
					
			
					
						
							Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg | Lower P/S 
							(Values for ADT: 8.0% | 1.4x)
						
						
				
						
							BFAM (9.6% | 0.8x)
							Bright Horizons Family Solutions
						
					
						
							TRNR (213.5% | 0.0x)
							Interactive Strength
						
					
					
						
							Higher Rev Chg LTM 
							(Value for ADT: 2.0%)
						
						
				
						
							DASH (35.0%)
							DoorDash
						
					
						
							FTDR (7.1%)
							Frontdoor
						
					
						
							BFAM (6.7%)
							Bright Horizons Family Solutions
						
					
						
							HRB (4.9%)
							H&R Block
						
					
						
							SCI (3.0%)
							Service International
						
					
					
						
							Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg 
							(Value for ADT: 8.0%)
						
						
				
						
							TRNR (213.5%)
							Interactive Strength
						
					
						
							DASH (28.0%)
							DoorDash
						
					
						
							BFAM (9.6%)
							Bright Horizons Family Solutions
						
					
					
						
							Higher Total Yield 
							(Value for ADT: 11.0%)
						
						
				
						
							ANDG (28.7%)
							Andersen
						
					
						
							HRB (14.2%)
							H&R Block
						
					
						
							CSV (12.9%)
							Carriage Services
						
					
					
				
					
						SECTOR: Consumer Discretionary
					
			
					
						
							Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg | Lower P/S 
							(Values for ADT: 8.0% | 1.4x)
						
						
				
						
							CPNG (16.2% | 0.8x)
							Coupang
						
					
						
							BURL (10.3% | 1.3x)
							Burlington Stores
						
					
						
							ARMK (13.7% | 0.7x)
							Aramark
						
					
						
							DKS (20.8% | 0.6x)
							Dick's Sporting Goods
						
					
						
							WYNN (9.0% | 1.2x)
							Wynn Resorts
						
					
					
						
							Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg | Lower P/Op Inc 
							(Values for ADT: 8.0% | 5.6x)
						
						
				
						
							LAD (8.2% | 4.9x)
							Lithia Motors
						
					
						
							HGV (14.7% | 3.3x)
							Hilton Grand Vacations
						
					
						
							GPI (8.0% | 3.5x)
							Group 1 Automotive
						
					
						
							DCH (12.9% | 3.5x)
							Dauch
						
					
						
							FUN (19.1% | 4.0x)
							Six Flags Entertainment
						
					
					
						
							Higher Rev Chg LTM 
							(Value for ADT: 2.0%)
						
						
				
						
							AMZN (15.4%)
							Amazon.com
						
					
						
							TSLA (8.3%)
							Tesla
						
					
						
							TJX (7.7%)
							TJX Companies
						
					
						
							MCD (5.8%)
							McDonald's
						
					
						
							HD (2.5%)
							Home Depot
						
					
					
						
							Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg 
							(Value for ADT: 8.0%)
						
						
				
						
							RCL (13.4%)
							Royal Caribbean
						
					
						
							ABNB (13.2%)
							Airbnb
						
					
						
							AMZN (12.9%)
							Amazon.com
						
					
						
							BKNG (10.9%)
							Booking Holdings
						
					
						
							HLT (8.0%)
							Hilton Worldwide
						
					
					
						
							Higher Op Mgn LTM 
							(Value for ADT: 24.6%)
						
						
				
						
							MCD (46.1%)
							McDonald's
						
					
						
							BKNG (32.8%)
							Booking Holdings
						
					
						
							YUM (30.4%)
							Yum Brands
						
					
						
							GRMN (28.8%)
							Garmin
						
					
						
							RCL (27.6%)
							Royal Caribbean
						
					
					
						
							Higher CFO/Rev LTM 
							(Value for ADT: 40.6%)
						
						
				
						
							VENU (52.3%)
							Venu
						
					
						
							WINA (48.0%)
							Winmark
						
					
					
						
							Higher FCF/Rev LTM 
							(Value for ADT: 30.8%)
						
						
				
						
							WINA (45.2%)
							Winmark
						
					
						
							ABNB (36.0%)
							Airbnb
						
					
						
							DUOL (33.5%)
							Duolingo
						
					
						
							BKNG (32.8%)
							Booking Holdings
						
					
						
							MELI (31.8%)
							MercadoLibre
						
					
					
						
							Higher Total Yield 
							(Value for ADT: 11.0%)
						
						
				
						
							GAP (19.6%)
							Gap
						
					
						
							HRB (14.2%)
							H&R Block
						
					
						
							LAD (12.5%)
							Lithia Motors
						
					
						
							ETSY (12.1%)
							Etsy
						
					
						
							LULU (11.3%)
							Lululemon Athletica
						
					
					
				
					
						All Other Sectors
					
			
					
						
							Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg | Lower P/S 
							(Values for ADT: 8.0% | 1.4x)
						
						
				
						
							MCK (13.0% | 0.3x)
							McKesson
						
					
						
							ENB (26.1% | 1.1x)
							Enbridge
						
					
						
							SU (9.2% | 1.2x)
							Suncor Energy
						
					
						
							CI (14.9% | 0.3x)
							Cigna
						
					
						
							MFC (12.3% | 1.4x)
							Manulife Financial
						
					
					
						
							Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg | Lower P/Op Inc 
							(Values for ADT: 8.0% | 5.6x)
						
						
				
						
							SU (9.2% | 5.4x)
							Suncor Energy
						
					
						
							IBKR (17.2% | 3.5x)
							Interactive Brokers
						
					
						
							EXE (45.9% | 5.0x)
							Expand Energy
						
					
						
							SNEX (38.2% | 3.6x)
							StoneX
						
					
						
							JEF (19.0% | 1.8x)
							Jefferies Financial
						
					
					
						
							Higher Rev Chg LTM 
							(Value for ADT: 2.0%)
						
						
				
						
							NVDA (83.4%)
							NVIDIA
						
					
						
							META (27.5%)
							Meta Platforms
						
					
						
							GOOGL (22.2%)
							Alphabet
						
					
						
							MSFT (17.9%)
							Microsoft
						
					
						
							AAPL (15.1%)
							Apple
						
					
					
						
							Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg 
							(Value for ADT: 8.0%)
						
						
				
						
							NVDA (116.5%)
							NVIDIA
						
					
						
							AVGO (36.2%)
							Broadcom
						
					
						
							META (24.0%)
							Meta Platforms
						
					
						
							GOOGL (16.7%)
							Alphabet
						
					
						
							MSFT (16.6%)
							Microsoft
						
					
					
						
							Higher Op Mgn LTM 
							(Value for ADT: 24.6%)
						
						
				
						
							NVDA (65.2%)
							NVIDIA
						
					
						
							MSFT (47.1%)
							Microsoft
						
					
						
							GOOGL (33.3%)
							Alphabet
						
					
						
							AAPL (33.0%)
							Apple
						
					
						
							META (32.9%)
							Meta Platforms
						
					
					
						
							Higher CFO/Rev LTM 
							(Value for ADT: 40.6%)
						
						
				
						
							MSFT (56.5%)
							Microsoft
						
					
						
							META (55.1%)
							Meta Platforms
						
					
						
							SPCX (49.2%)
							Space Exploration Technologies
						
					
						
							AVGO (45.6%)
							Broadcom
						
					
						
							NVDA (44.3%)
							NVIDIA
						
					
					
						
							Higher FCF/Rev LTM 
							(Value for ADT: 30.8%)
						
						
				
						
							V (48.1%)
							Visa
						
					
						
							MU (44.3%)
							Micron Technology
						
					
						
							AVGO (44.2%)
							Broadcom
						
					
						
							MA (42.5%)
							Mastercard
						
					
						
							NVDA (41.9%)
							NVIDIA
						
					
					
						
							Higher Total Yield 
							(Value for ADT: 11.0%)
						
						
				
						
							BAC (12.1%)
							Bank of America
						
					
						
							TD (11.9%)
							Toronto-Dominion Bank
						
					
						
							RY (11.5%)
							Royal Bank of Canada
						
					
						
							WFC (11.3%)
							Wells Fargo
						
					
						
							GS (11.1%)
							Goldman Sachs
						
					
					
				
					
						Best Bets in Consumer Discretionary
					
			What You Pay
					
						
							P/EBIT 
							(Value for ADT: 5.6x)
						
						
				
						
							ABNB (37.0x)
							Airbnb
						
					
						
							DUOL (51.5x)
							Duolingo
						
					
						
							BKNG (11.6x)
							Booking Holdings
						
					
						
							ADT (5.6x)
							ADT
						
					
						
							MCD (15.0x)
							McDonald's
						
					
						
							WH (13.3x)
							Wyndham Hotels & Resorts
						
					
						
							LOPE (9.7x)
							Grand Canyon Education
						
					
						
							ETSY (17.3x)
							Etsy
						
					
						
							CROX (7.8x)
							Crocs
						
					
						
							GRMN (24.2x)
							Garmin
						
					
					
						
							P/E 
							(Value for ADT: 11.7x)
						
						
				
						
							ABNB (34.9x)
							Airbnb
						
					
						
							DUOL (51.6x)
							Duolingo
						
					
						
							BKNG (16.8x)
							Booking Holdings
						
					
						
							ADT (11.7x)
							ADT
						
					
						
							MCD (21.7x)
							McDonald's
						
					
						
							WH (28.4x)
							Wyndham Hotels & Resorts
						
					
						
							LOPE (12.1x)
							Grand Canyon Education
						
					
						
							ETSY (8.3x)
							Etsy
						
					
						
							CROX (10.8x)
							Crocs
						
					
						
							GRMN (27.3x)
							Garmin
						
					
What You Get
					
						
							Rev Chg 3Y Avg 
							(Value for ADT: 8.0%)
						
						
				
						
							ABNB (13.2%)
							Airbnb
						
					
						
							DUOL (35.0%)
							Duolingo
						
					
						
							BKNG (10.9%)
							Booking Holdings
						
					
						
							ADT (8.0%)
							ADT
						
					
						
							MCD (3.6%)
							McDonald's
						
					
						
							WH (0.8%)
							Wyndham Hotels & Resorts
						
					
						
							LOPE (6.9%)
							Grand Canyon Education
						
					
						
							ETSY (3.7%)
							Etsy
						
					
						
							CROX (1.3%)
							Crocs
						
					
						
							GRMN (16.0%)
							Garmin
						
					
					
						
							Rev Chg LTM 
							(Value for ADT: 2.0%)
						
						
				
						
							ABNB (16.7%)
							Airbnb
						
					
						
							DUOL (22.6%)
							Duolingo
						
					
						
							BKNG (8.0%)
							Booking Holdings
						
					
						
							ADT (2.0%)
							ADT
						
					
						
							MCD (5.8%)
							McDonald's
						
					
						
							WH (0.7%)
							Wyndham Hotels & Resorts
						
					
						
							LOPE (5.3%)
							Grand Canyon Education
						
					
						
							ETSY (10.8%)
							Etsy
						
					
						
							CROX (0.7%)
							Crocs
						
					
						
							GRMN (13.6%)
							Garmin
						
					
					
						
							Rev Chg Q 
							(Value for ADT: 3.9%)
						
						
				
						
							ABNB (18.9%)
							Airbnb
						
					
						
							DUOL (13.7%)
							Duolingo
						
					
						
							BKNG (-1.3%)
							Booking Holdings
						
					
						
							ADT (3.9%)
							ADT
						
					
						
							MCD (1.1%)
							McDonald's
						
					
						
							WH (7.3%)
							Wyndham Hotels & Resorts
						
					
						
							LOPE (2.4%)
							Grand Canyon Education
						
					
						
							ETSY (10.9%)
							Etsy
						
					
						
							CROX (4.6%)
							Crocs
						
					
						
							GRMN (12.2%)
							Garmin
						
					
					
						
							FCF/Rev 3Y Avg 
							(Value for ADT: 27.0%)
						
						
				
						
							ABNB (37.4%)
							Airbnb
						
					
						
							DUOL (34.2%)
							Duolingo
						
					
						
							BKNG (33.9%)
							Booking Holdings
						
					
						
							ADT (27.0%)
							ADT
						
					
						
							MCD (26.8%)
							McDonald's
						
					
						
							WH (25.5%)
							Wyndham Hotels & Resorts
						
					
						
							LOPE (22.7%)
							Grand Canyon Education
						
					
						
							ETSY (22.2%)
							Etsy
						
					
						
							CROX (19.7%)
							Crocs
						
					
						
							GRMN (19.6%)
							Garmin
						
					
			
				[1] Choosing top 10 best bets from each sector quarterly is an alpha producing strategy vs sector benchmark
[2] Historical annualized return of 14%, alpha of 2.9%, and sharpe of 0.61
			
		

				
			
		
	

	
		
			
				
				 Peer Outperformance in Specialized Consumer Services
				
			
				ADT has outperformed 78% of its 9 Specialized Consumer Services peers over 5Y. Among the peers that beat it is FTDR. Specialized Consumer Services ranks 10th of 22 industries in Consumer Discretionary by median 5Y return.
			
		
				
		
			Share of Specialized Consumer Services constituents that ADT has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
			
			
				1Y
				90%
				of 10 industry peers · 24.7% return
			
		
			
				3Y
				70%
				of 10 industry peers · 76.9% return
			
		
			
				5Y
				78%
				of 9 industry peers · 23.9% return
			
		
		
	
				
			
				Specialized Consumer Services peers with revenue growth within 4pp of ADT's that beat it on at least 2 of 3 windows, and by at least 20pp over 5Y. Growth is matched by construction, so the gap is largely a re-rating gap. The multiple column is the context for it.
				
				
					
						Ticker
						Name
						Rev Growth 3Y Avg
						P/E
						1Y 3Y 5Y
						5Y Gap
					
					
			
				ADT
				ADT
				8.0%
				11.7x
				24.7% 76.9% 23.9%
				—
			
		
				
					FTDR
					Frontdoor
					7.7%
					23.5x
					96.6% 173.0% 167.8%
					+144pp
				
			
				
				
				
					Price returns, excluding dividends. P/E shown for context only and not used for matching.
				
			
		
				
			
				Median price return by industry across the Consumer Discretionary sector, ranked by 5Y. Specialized Consumer Services is ADT's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
				
				
					
						Industry
						Names
						1Y med 3Y med 5Y med
						Top 3 by 5Y
					
					
				
					Education Services
					14
					-12.6% 33.7% 41.0%
					CVSA 246% · GHC 109% · LRN 107%
				
			
				
					Homebuilding
					17
					3.7% 29.7% 29.7%
					PHM 175% · TOL 159% · GRBK 150%
				
			
				
					Automotive Retail
					17
					-2.1% 18.9% 11.3%
					MUSA 209% · PAG 115% · ORLY 111%
				
			
				
					Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
					21
					19.8% 56.9% 7.0%
					RCL 250% · MAR 159% · HLT 147%
				
			
				
					Home Improvement Retail
					5
					-4.3% 3.3% 5.3%
					HD 6% · LOW 5% · FND -62%
				
			
				
					Home Furnishings
					3
					4.6% 73.9% -1.2%
					SGI 50% · MHK -15%
				
			
				
					Footwear
					9
					75.0% 79.9% -15.7%
					DECK 23% · SHOO -11% · CROX -16%
				
			
				
					Restaurants
					36
					2.4% -4.6% -24.2%
					EAT 363% · CAKE 158% · TXRH 110%
				
			
				
					Computer & Electronics Retail
					3
					33.4% 75.8% -24.5%
					BBY -3% · GME -53%
				
			
				
					Specialized Consumer Services ←
					10
					-8.5% 32.3% -25.5%
					FTDR 168% · HRB 146% · ADT 24%
				
			
				
					Distributors
					4
					-5.4% -16.9% -26.0%
					ARMK 96% · GPC 4% · POOL -56%
				
			
				
					Leisure Products
					14
					-16.4% -4.9% -34.4%
					GOLF 51% · HAS 50% · BC -14%
				
			
				
					Leisure Facilities
					12
					18.9% 0.4% -39.5%
					OSW 160% · LTH 143% · PLNT -37%
				
			
				
					Household Appliances
					18
					34.2% 20.6% -40.3%
					WHR -82%
				
			
				
					Broadline Retail
					12
					-5.8% 14.0% -45.7%
					EBAY 76% · AMZN 47% · OLLI 24%
				
			
				
					Apparel Retail
					27
					-3.8% 1.8% -48.8%
					ANF 223% · VSXY 110% · TJX 104%
				
			
				
					Automotive Parts & Equipment
					37
					-13.2% -28.2% -48.8%
					GTX 197% · PATK 64% · ALV 41%
				
			
				
					Casinos & Gaming
					21
					-25.8% -16.1% -51.8%
					RRR 22% · BYD 19% · LVS 3%
				
			
				
					Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods
					29
					15.8% 17.8% -53.7%
					TPR 255% · RL 225% · KTB 59%
				
			
				
					Other Specialty Retail
					25
					-0.1% -11.4% -57.7%
					ULTA 65% · ASO 53% · ARHS 26%
				
			
				
					Automobile Manufacturers
					8
					-59.8% -44.0% -70.5%
					GM 54% · TSLA -12% · F -12%
				
			
				
					Consumer Electronics
					11
					-31.9% -29.8% -80.5%
					GRMN 122%
				
			
				
				
				
					Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are limited to companies above $2B market cap.
				
			
		
			
		
	

	
		
			
				
				 Latest Trefis Analyses
				 Title Date
0 DASHBOARDS  
1 ADT Stock Falls -19% With A 7-day Losing Spree On Weak Guidance 03/10/2026
2 ADT Stock (-11%): Flat 2026 Guidance Misses Wall Street Expectations 03/03/2026
3 ADT Earnings Notes 12/28/2026
4 How Low Can ADT Stock Really Go? 10/17/2025
5 ADT vs Interactive Brokers: Which Is A Better Investment? 08/18/2025
6 ADT vs Willis Lease Finance: Which Is A Better Investment? 08/18/2025
7 How Does ADT Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? 08/13/2025
8 ARTICLES  
9 What Changed For ADT Stock, And What Did Not? 11/01/2026
10 Was There Any Sign ADT Stock Would Run? 10/30/2026
11 Market Movers | Winners: GKOS, ADT, BHC | Losers: IOVA, NOW, BXBL 10/30/2026
12 Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low 03/05/2026
13 Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High 07/25/2025
 Title
0 DASHBOARDS
1 ADT Stock Falls -19% With A 7-day Losing Spree On Weak Guidance
2 ADT Stock (-11%): Flat 2026 Guidance Misses Wall Street Expectations
3 ADT Earnings Notes
4 How Low Can ADT Stock Really Go?
5 ADT vs Interactive Brokers: Which Is A Better Investment?
6 ADT vs Willis Lease Finance: Which Is A Better Investment?
7 How Does ADT Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers?
8 ARTICLES
9 What Changed For ADT Stock, And What Did Not?
10 Was There Any Sign ADT Stock Would Run?
11 Market Movers | Winners: GKOS, ADT, BHC | Losers: IOVA, NOW, BXBL
12 Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low
13 Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High
			
		
	

	
		
			
				
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ONT Onterris 0.8 46.9% -11.7%
CRCT Cricut 1.8 44.4% 85.2%
ARDT Ardent Health 2.5 43.8% 95.9%
XERS Xeris Biopharma 2.6 41.9% 93.6%
SHLS Shoals Technologies 1.7 40.0% 18.6%
U Unity Software 22.5 36.6% 16.6%
ENOV Enovis 1.6 36.4% 2.0%
Top Losers
Ticker Company Mkt Cap (B) 1W Rtn YTD Rtn
VCYT Veracyte 1.9 -51.7% -42.6%
PCT PureCycle Technologies 0.3 -50.4% -80.6%
STLN Starling Oncology 0.4 -44.6% -30.0%
MNTN MNTN 0.4 -43.0% -55.4%
NRIX Nurix Therapeutics 1.7 -42.9% -19.3%
AESI Atlas Energy Solutions 0.7 -41.3% -42.6%
FRMI Fermi 1.0 -39.8% -80.4%
ACDC ProFrac 0.5 -38.4% -22.8%
OFRM Once Upon a Farm PBC 0.4 -38.3% -56.0%
ADTN Adtran 0.3 -38.1% -53.5%
					Top Gainers
Ticker Company Mkt Cap (B) 1M Rtn YTD Rtn
BMBL Bumble 0.8 132.7% 67.2%
SGRY Surgery Partners 3.0 70.1% 50.2%
REPL Replimune 2.3 65.8% 122.4%
GDYN Grid Dynamics 1.1 63.5% 45.1%
BRZE Braze 5.1 60.9% 33.5%
ONT Onterris 0.8 59.9% -11.7%
COAG Hemab Therapeutics 1.5 58.7% 44.2%
LQDA Liquidia 3.9 58.5% 28.7%
TDOC Teladoc Health 1.6 58.3% 25.3%
ARDT Ardent Health 2.5 56.3% 95.9%
Top Losers
Ticker Company Mkt Cap (B) 1M Rtn YTD Rtn
PCT PureCycle Technologies 0.3 -57.6% -80.6%
FRMI Fermi 1.0 -57.1% -80.4%
AESI Atlas Energy Solutions 0.7 -55.5% -42.6%
AAOI Applied Optoelectronics 4.1 -52.7% 43.8%
CIFR Cipher Digital 2.7 -51.5% -55.7%
DJT Trump Media & Technology 1.1 -51.3% -69.9%
STRL Sterling Infrastructure 7.7 -51.2% -17.4%
FPS Forgent Power Solutions 5.1 -51.1% -32.8%
BCAX Bicara Therapeutics 0.6 -49.9% -48.6%
MNTN MNTN 0.4 -48.8% -55.4%

				
			
		
	

	
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				 Peer Comparisons
Peers to compare with: 
				
				Financials
 ADT JCI HON ALLE ALRM REZI Median
Name ADT      Johnson . Honeywel. Allegion Alarm.com Resideo .  
Mkt Price 9.88 135.74 220.10 185.44 65.22 19.40 100.48
Mkt Cap 7.2 82.5 69.9 15.7 3.2 2.9 11.5
Rev LTM 5,216 24,995 46,595 4,391 1,084 7,652 6,434
Op Inc LTM 1,284 3,611 9,200 944 143 638 1,114
FCF LTM 1,605 1,659 798 740 190 -1,399 769
FCF 3Y Avg 1,366 2,037 4,442 668 174 -228 1,017
CFO LTM 2,118 2,032 1,947 844 204 -1,269 1,396
CFO 3Y Avg 1,975 2,454 5,401 761 189 -122 1,368
				Growth & Margins
 ADT JCI HON ALLE ALRM REZI Median
Name ADT      Johnson . Honeywel. Allegion Alarm.com Resideo .  
Rev Chg LTM 2.0% 6.8% 58.0% 10.3% 9.3% 3.4% 8.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg 8.0% 5.4% 12.7% 6.7% 7.9% 6.9% 7.4%
Rev Chg Q 3.9% 9.3% 1.3% 9.6% 9.0% 2.0% 6.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM 1.0% 2.3% 0.1% 2.4% 2.2% 0.5% 1.6%
Op Inc Chg LTM 0.2% 24.6% 90.1% 13.1% 10.3% 2.4% 11.7%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg 3.9% 18.7% 17.8% 10.1% 40.5% 3.2% 13.9%
Op Mgn LTM 24.6% 14.4% 19.7% 21.5% 13.2% 8.3% 17.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg 24.7% 12.2% 18.3% 21.0% 12.5% 8.6% 15.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM -0.3% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.5%
CFO/Rev LTM 40.6% 8.1% 4.2% 19.2% 18.8% -16.6% 13.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg 39.1% 10.9% 16.5% 18.8% 19.0% -1.1% 17.6%
FCF/Rev LTM 30.8% 6.6% 1.7% 16.9% 17.5% -18.3% 11.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg 27.0% 9.1% 13.8% 16.5% 17.4% -2.6% 15.2%
				Valuation
 ADT JCI HON ALLE ALRM REZI Median
Name ADT      Johnson . Honeywel. Allegion Alarm.com Resideo .  
Mkt Cap 7.2 82.5 69.9 15.7 3.2 2.9 11.5
P/S 1.4 3.3 1.5 3.6 3.0 0.4 2.2
P/Op Inc 5.6 22.9 7.6 16.7 22.5 4.6 12.1
P/EBIT 5.6 28.2 4.9 16.6 19.3 4.4 11.1
P/E 11.7 23.1 9.9 22.8 27.4 6.9 17.2
P/CFO 3.4 40.6 35.9 18.6 15.8 -2.3 17.2
Total Yield 11.0% 5.5% 13.8% 5.6% 3.7% 14.6% 8.3%
Dividend Yield 2.4% 1.2% 3.7% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg 24.1% 3.2% 3.5% 4.9% 6.5% -2.2% 4.2%
D/E 1.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 1.2 0.2
Net D/E 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.0 0.1
				Returns
 ADT JCI HON ALLE ALRM REZI Median
Name ADT      Johnson . Honeywel. Allegion Alarm.com Resideo .  
1M Rtn 56.8% -12.9% 5.8% 25.4% 19.3% 10.5% 14.9%
3M Rtn 30.3% -10.6% -10.3% 10.2% 13.4% -25.6% -0.1%
6M Rtn 46.1% -2.2% 3.2% 39.1% 37.0% -51.2% 20.1%
12M Rtn 24.9% 12.4% 13.5% 14.0% 38.4% -38.0% 13.7%
3Y Rtn 77.2% 180.6% 31.8% 91.0% 24.4% 22.4% 54.5%
1M Excs Rtn 53.0% -10.9% 7.5% 24.6% 19.0% 13.8% 16.4%
3M Excs Rtn 33.4% -8.8% -8.3% 13.3% 16.4% -19.0% 2.5%
6M Excs Rtn 42.2% -6.1% -0.7% 35.2% 33.1% -55.1% 16.2%
12M Excs Rtn 12.4% 0.5% -0.3% 0.3% 23.6% -65.9% 0.4%
3Y Excs Rtn 11.8% 105.2% -47.7% 14.4% -52.2% -49.4% -17.9%
				Comparison Analyses
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				 FDIC Bank Data
				
					Capital & Deposits
					Assets
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										Bank Capital
nullBank Deposits
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				 FDA Approved Drugs Data
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				 Clinical Pipeline
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				 Financials
				
					Annual
					Quarterly
				
									$ Mil | FY: 12/31 LTM 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020
Period End 9/30/2026 12/31/2025 12/31/2024 12/31/2023 12/31/2022 12/31/2021 12/31/2020
Filing Date 11/3/2026 3/2/2026 2/27/2025 2/28/2024 2/28/2023 3/1/2022 2/25/2021

Key Financials              
Total Revenue 5,216 5,129 4,898 4,653 4,382 4,203 5,315
Gross Profit 4,175 4,146 4,051 3,901 3,683 3,430 3,798
EBITDA 2,659 2,660 2,601 2,563 2,361 1,896 1,843
Operating Income 1,284 1,309 1,208 1,179 735 49 161
Net Income 618 596 501 463 133 -341 -632
EPS 0.80 0.72 0.56 0.51 0.15 -0.41 -0.82

Growth Rates              
Total Revenue Growth 2.0% 4.7% 5.3% 6.2% 4.3% -20.9% 3.7%
EBITDA Growth 0.6% 2.3% 1.5% 8.5% 24.5% 2.9% -11.7%
Operating Income Growth 0.2% 8.3% 2.5% 60.4% 1401.6% -69.6% -52.7%
Net Income Growth -3.5% 18.9% 8.2% 249.0% 138.9% 46.1% -49.0%

Margins              
Gross Margin 80.0% 80.8% 82.7% 83.8% 84.1% 81.6% 71.5%
EBITDA Margin 51.0% 51.9% 53.1% 55.1% 53.9% 45.1% 34.7%
Operating Income Margin 24.6% 25.5% 24.7% 25.3% 16.8% 1.2% 3.0%
Net Income Margin 11.9% 11.6% 10.2% 10.0% 3.0% -8.1% -11.9%

Cash & Debt              
Total Cash 228 81 96 15 257 24 205
Total Debt 7,781 7,690 7,707 7,826 9,825 9,730 9,523
Net Debt / (Cash) 7,552 7,609 7,611 7,811 9,568 9,706 9,318

Cash Flows & CapEx              
Net Cash from Operations 2,118 1,884 1,885 1,658 1,888 1,650 1,367
Total CapEx -514 -572 -687 -807 -911 -863 -576
Free Cash from Operations 1,605 1,312 1,198 851 977 787 791

Returns to Shareholders              
Dividends 175 187 182 129 127 116 109
Share Repurchases 623 607 241 -0 1,200 -0 0
					$ Mil | FY: 12/31 2026Q3 2026Q2 2026Q1 2025Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2024Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024Q1 2023Q4
Period End 9/30/2026 6/30/2026 3/31/2026 12/31/2025 9/30/2025 6/30/2025 3/31/2025 12/31/2024 9/30/2024 6/30/2024 3/31/2024 12/31/2023
Filing Date 11/3/2026 7/30/2026 4/30/2026 3/2/2026 11/4/2025 7/24/2025 4/24/2025 2/27/2025 10/24/2024 8/1/2024 4/25/2024 2/28/2024

Key Financials Quarterly                        
Total Revenue 1,349 1,312 1,279 1,276 1,298 1,287 1,267 1,260 1,244 1,205 1,190 1,172
Ebitda 656 665 671 666 659 682 654 649 679 630 642 633
Operating Income 311 316 325 333 315 342 319 305 326 284 292 275
Net Income 151 154 168 145 145 165 140 190 127 92 92 576
EPS 0.21 0.20 0.21 0.18 0.18 0.20 0.16 0.21 0.14 0.10 0.10 0.63

Key Financials TTM                        
Total Revenue TTM 5,216 5,165 5,140 5,129 5,113 5,059 4,976 4,898 4,810 4,747 4,710 4,798
Ebitda TTM 2,659 2,661 2,678 2,660 2,644 2,664 2,613 2,601 2,584 2,542 2,590 2,304
Operating Income TTM 1,284 1,289 1,315 1,309 1,282 1,293 1,235 1,208 1,178 1,168 1,224 1,163
Net Income TTM 618 613 624 596 641 623 550 501 887 674 673 463

Growth Rates Quarterly                        
Total Revenue Growth 3.9% 2.0% 0.9% 1.2% 4.4% 6.8% 6.5% 7.5% 5.4% 3.1% -6.9% 120.8%
EBITDA Growth -0.4% -2.4% 2.7% 2.5% -3.0% 8.2% 1.8% 2.6% 6.6% -7.1% 80.2% -33.9%
Operating Income Growth -1.4% -7.6% 1.9% 8.9% -3.5% 20.3% 9.3% 11.1% 3.2% -16.5% 26.1% 6.8%
Net Income Growth 3.8% -6.9% 20.1% -23.5% 14.1% 78.8% 53.2% -67.0% 247.4% 0.2% 177.0% 282.0%

Margins Quarterly                        
EBITDA Margin 48.7% 50.7% 52.5% 52.2% 50.8% 53.0% 51.6% 51.5% 54.6% 52.3% 54.0% 54.0%
Operating Income Margin 23.0% 24.1% 25.5% 26.1% 24.3% 26.6% 25.2% 24.2% 26.2% 23.6% 24.6% 23.4%
Net Income Margin 11.2% 11.7% 13.2% 11.4% 11.2% 12.8% 11.1% 15.1% 10.2% 7.7% 7.7% 49.1%

Cash & Debt                        
Total Cash 228 4 119 81 63 45 4 96 95 38 4 15
Total Debt 7,781 7,688 7,669 7,690 7,806 7,815 7,819 7,707 7,721 7,744 7,906 7,826
Net Debt / (Cash) 7,552 7,684 7,550 7,609 7,743 7,770 7,816 7,611 7,626 7,706 7,902 7,811

Cash Flows Quarterly                        
FCF from Operations 440 666 638 374 480 564 467 460 498 563 364 412

Cash Flows TTM                        
FCF from Operations TTM 2,118 2,158 2,056 1,884 1,970 1,988 1,988 1,885 1,837 1,785 1,715 1,658

Returns to Shareholders Quarterly                        
Dividends 41 45 45 45 46 47 49 50 50 50 32 32
Share Repurchases 23 484 116 -0 112 99 397 147 -0 -0 93 -0

Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) Quarterly                        
ROIC 6.6% 6.6% 6.9% 6.3% 6.3% 7.0% 6.4% 7.2% 6.3% 5.1% 5.7% 5.0%

Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) TTM                        
ROIC TTM 6.7% 6.7% 6.7% 6.6% 6.9% 6.9% 6.4% 6.2% 5.6% 5.6% 6.0% 6.1%

			
		
	

	
		
			
				
				 Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
$ Mil 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021
Monitoring and related services 4,354 4,293 4,179 4,053  
Security installation, product, and other 775 605 474 329  
Consumer and Small Business (CSB)         4,155
Solar         47
Total 5,129 4,898 4,653 4,382 4,203



			
		
	

	
		
			
				
				 Price Behavior
				
					Behavior Stats
					Betas Matrix
					Behavior vs Other Asset Classes
				
				
										Price Behavior
Market Price $9.86  
Market Cap ($ Bil) 7.2  
First Trading Date 09/10/2014  
Distance from 52W High -0.4%  
    50 Days 200 Days
DMA Price $7.21 $7.04
DMA Trend indeterminate down
Distance from DMA 36.8% 40.0%
  3M 1YR
Volatility 73.0% 44.1%
Downside Capture -73.27 50.52
Upside Capture 88.80 70.23
Correlation (S&P 500) -0.6% 17.1%
					
ADT Betas & Captures as of 10/31/2026


  1M 2M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y
Beta -0.95 -0.39 -0.06 0.12 0.62 0.79
Up Beta -8.15 -4.65 -1.56 -0.49 0.55 0.71
Down Beta 3.53 0.91 0.25 0.43 0.77 0.69
Up Capture 235% 103% 98% 52% 58% 77%
Bmk +ve Days 12 18 28 62 130 427
Stock +ve Days 13 21 32 64 128 389
Down Capture -635% -161% -60% -18% 66% 96%
Bmk -ve Days 10 25 36 64 121 325
Stock -ve Days 9 22 32 60 116 341


[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
					
					1Y
					5Y
					10Y
				
					Based On 1-Year Data
 Annualized
Return Annualized
Volatility Sharpe
Ratio Correlation
with ADT
ADT 25.4% 44.1% 0.61 -
Sector ETF (XLY) -1.9% 19.8% -0.22 28.6%
Equity (SPY) 9.5% 13.6% 0.40 15.4%
Gold (GLD) 1.6% 28.7% 0.05 1.4%
Commodities (DBC) 38.4% 21.2% 1.42 -17.2%
Real Estate (VNQ) 11.3% 14.2% 0.51 38.3%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) -26.9% 43.6% -0.60 -3.9%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
					Based On 5-Year Data
 Annualized
Return Annualized
Volatility Sharpe
Ratio Correlation
with ADT
ADT 6.0% 40.2% 0.24 -
Sector ETF (XLY) 4.0% 24.2% 0.12 43.8%
Equity (SPY) 11.3% 17.3% 0.48 42.1%
Gold (GLD) 17.5% 19.1% 0.74 2.3%
Commodities (DBC) 8.1% 19.6% 0.30 7.2%
Real Estate (VNQ) 1.3% 18.9% -0.04 45.1%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) 4.1% 51.6% 0.26 18.0%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
					Based On 10-Year Data
 Annualized
Return Annualized
Volatility Sharpe
Ratio Correlation
with ADT
ADT 1.3% 48.7% 0.20 -
Sector ETF (XLY) 12.8% 22.3% 0.52 39.4%
Equity (SPY) 15.0% 18.0% 0.70 39.5%
Gold (GLD) 11.9% 16.5% 0.59 1.8%
Commodities (DBC) 7.5% 18.1% 0.33 14.9%
Real Estate (VNQ) 5.9% 20.7% 0.24 37.0%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) 60.1% 66.3% 1.00 10.0%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How


				
			
		
		
			
				
				 Short Interest
Short Interest: As Of Date 10152026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity 24.4 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 9302026 2.4%
Average Daily Volume 7.3 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest 3.4 days
Basic Shares Quantity 730.8 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares 3.3%
			
		
	

	
		
			
				 Returns Analyses
 Title
0 How Low Can ADT Stock Really Go?
1 ADT Stock Return Comparison
2 [10/14/2021] ADT (ADT) Stock Price Forecast: AI Forecasts ADT Stock Price To Be Around $8.75 In A Month (Up 2.4%)
3 ADT (ADT) Stock Return: AI Predicts ADT Average and Excess Return After a Fall or Rise
			
		
	

	
		
			
				
				
				    Earnings Returns History
				    Updated 11/6/2026
				

				Expand for More  Forward Returns
Earnings Date 1D Returns 5D Returns 21D Returns
11/3/2026 0.2%    
7/30/2026 1.3% 3.9% 0.7%
4/30/2026 5.0% -2.7% -6.4%
3/2/2026 -11.2% -18.3% -18.6%
11/4/2025 -8.1% -7.5% -7.7%
7/24/2025 2.8% -0.8% 2.5%
4/24/2025 -2.0% 1.4% 3.0%
2/27/2025 7.8% 2.3% 10.1%
... 
SUMMARY STATS      
# Positive 15 13 13
# Negative 10 11 11
Median Positive 3.4% 3.9% 9.0%
Median Negative -8.5% -8.9% -7.7%
Max Positive 17.6% 13.6% 19.9%
Max Negative -19.7% -27.5% -18.6%
				Collapse to Preview  Forward Returns
Earnings Date 1D Returns 5D Returns 21D Returns
11/3/2026 0.2%    
7/30/2026 1.3% 3.9% 0.7%
4/30/2026 5.0% -2.7% -6.4%
3/2/2026 -11.2% -18.3% -18.6%
11/4/2025 -8.1% -7.5% -7.7%
7/24/2025 2.8% -0.8% 2.5%
4/24/2025 -2.0% 1.4% 3.0%
2/27/2025 7.8% 2.3% 10.1%
10/24/2024 17.6% 6.5% 9.0%
8/1/2024 -8.9% -8.9% -5.4%
4/25/2024 -0.8% 1.9% 12.9%
2/28/2024 10.1% 13.6% 3.9%
11/2/2023 16.5% 5.6% 10.8%
8/8/2023 2.4% 4.5% -2.3%
5/2/2023 -14.3% -10.8% -14.6%
2/28/2023 -4.1% -1.8% -10.1%
11/3/2022 0.1% 4.5% 18.2%
8/4/2022 5.3% 8.6% -1.0%
5/5/2022 -2.9% -9.8% 2.9%
3/1/2022 2.2% 0.1% 7.9%
11/9/2021 12.1% -0.6% -3.8%
8/4/2021 -12.5% -13.6% -17.3%
5/5/2021 3.4% 3.1% 19.9%
2/25/2021 -19.7% -27.5% -13.0%
11/5/2020 0.0% 1.4% 12.6%
SUMMARY STATS      
# Positive 15 13 13
# Negative 10 11 11
Median Positive 3.4% 3.9% 9.0%
Median Negative -8.5% -8.9% -7.7%
Max Positive 17.6% 13.6% 19.9%
Max Negative -19.7% -27.5% -18.6%
			
		
		
			
				
				 SEC Filings
				Expand for MoreReport Date Filing Date Filing
09/30/2026 11/03/2026 10-Q
06/30/2026 07/30/2026 10-Q
03/31/2026 04/30/2026 10-Q
12/31/2025 03/02/2026 10-K
09/30/2025 11/04/2025 10-Q
06/30/2025 07/24/2025 10-Q
03/31/2025 04/24/2025 10-Q
12/31/2024 02/27/2025 10-K
09/30/2024 10/24/2024 10-Q
06/30/2024 08/01/2024 10-Q
03/31/2024 04/25/2024 10-Q
12/31/2023 02/28/2024 10-K
09/30/2023 11/02/2023 10-Q
06/30/2023 08/08/2023 10-Q
03/31/2023 05/02/2023 10-Q
12/31/2022 02/28/2023 10-K
				Collapse to PreviewReport Date Filing Date Filing
09/30/2026 11/03/2026 10-Q
06/30/2026 07/30/2026 10-Q
03/31/2026 04/30/2026 10-Q
12/31/2025 03/02/2026 10-K
09/30/2025 11/04/2025 10-Q
06/30/2025 07/24/2025 10-Q
03/31/2025 04/24/2025 10-Q
12/31/2024 02/27/2025 10-K
09/30/2024 10/24/2024 10-Q
06/30/2024 08/01/2024 10-Q
03/31/2024 04/25/2024 10-Q
12/31/2023 02/28/2024 10-K
09/30/2023 11/02/2023 10-Q
06/30/2023 08/08/2023 10-Q
03/31/2023 05/02/2023 10-Q
12/31/2022 02/28/2023 10-K
09/30/2022 11/03/2022 10-Q
06/30/2022 08/04/2022 10-Q
03/31/2022 05/06/2022 10-Q
12/31/2021 03/01/2022 10-K
09/30/2021 11/09/2021 10-Q
06/30/2021 08/04/2021 10-Q
03/31/2021 05/05/2021 10-Q
12/31/2020 02/25/2021 10-K
09/30/2020 11/05/2020 10-Q
06/30/2020 08/05/2020 10-Q
03/31/2020 05/07/2020 10-Q
12/31/2019 03/10/2020 10-K
			
		
	

	
		
			
				
				
				    Recent Forward Guidance
				    Updated 11/4/2026
				
				Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 11/3/2026
				null
				
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/30/2026
				Forward Guidance Guidance Change
Metric Source Low Mid High % Chg % Delta Change Prior
2026 Total Revenue Growth Reported   2.0%     2.0% Raised Guidance: 0.0% for 2026
2026 Adjusted EPS Growth Reported   2.0%     2.0% Raised Guidance: 0.0% for 2026
2026 Adjusted Free Cash Flow Growth Reported   30.0%     10.0% Raised Guidance: 20.0% for 2026

Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/30/2026
Forward Guidance Guidance Change
Metric Source Low Mid High % Chg % Delta Change Prior
2026 Revenue Growth Reported   0.0%     0.0% Affirmed Guidance: 0.0% for 2026
2026 Adjusted EPS Growth Reported   0.0%     0.0% Affirmed Guidance: 0.0% for 2026
2026 Adjusted Free Cash Flow Growth Reported   20.0%     0.0% Affirmed Guidance: 20.0% for 2026

Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/2/2026
Forward Guidance Guidance Change
Metric Source Low Mid High % Chg % Delta Change Prior
2026 Revenue Growth Reported   0.0%         
2026 Adjusted EPS Growth Reported   0.0%         
2026 Adjusted Free Cash Flow Growth Reported   20.0%         
			
		
	

	
		
			
				
				
				    Insider Activity
				    Updated 10/5/2026
				
				Expand for More# Owner Title Holding Action Filing Date Price Shares Transacted
Value Value of
Held Shares Form
1 Likosar, Jeffrey Pres Corp Dev  & Trans. & CFO Direct Buy 6022026 6.75 15,000 101,250 4,206,564 Form
2 Miller, Kimberly EVP, CMO & Comm. Officer Direct Buy 5182026 6.91 3,625 25,049 386,852 Form
3 Ahmad, Fawad EVP, Chief Oper and Cust. Off. Direct Buy 5122026 6.75 7,500 50,625 2,040,752 Form
4 Khan, Omar EVP, Chief Business Officer Direct Buy 5122026 6.88 7,280 50,080 50,080 Form
5 Houston, Daniel Joseph   Direct Buy 5122026 6.87 36,450 250,412 513,960 Form
				Collapse to Preview# Owner Title Holding Action Filing Date Price Shares Transacted
Value Value of
Held Shares Form
1 Likosar, Jeffrey Pres Corp Dev  & Trans. & CFO Direct Buy 6022026 6.75 15,000 101,250 4,206,564 Form
2 Miller, Kimberly EVP, CMO & Comm. Officer Direct Buy 5182026 6.91 3,625 25,049 386,852 Form
3 Ahmad, Fawad EVP, Chief Oper and Cust. Off. Direct Buy 5122026 6.75 7,500 50,625 2,040,752 Form
4 Khan, Omar EVP, Chief Business Officer Direct Buy 5122026 6.88 7,280 50,080 50,080 Form
5 Houston, Daniel Joseph   Direct Buy 5122026 6.87 36,450 250,412 513,960 Form
6 Scott, David A EVP, Chief People & Admin. Off Direct Buy 3092026 6.72 7,300 49,056 49,056 Form
			
		
	
	
	
		
			
				
				
					Investor Activity (13F)
					Updated Nov 7, 2026
				
				13F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)
				Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
				
					
					
					
					
				
				
					Active Manager Value % of Portfolio Total Positions QoQ Filing
Bracebridge Capital, LLC $14.0 Mil 2.5% 28 Hold 13F
Partners Group Holding AG $7.3 Mil 0.5% 50 Hold 13F
					Active Manager
					Active Manager Value % of Portfolio Total Positions QoQ Filing
Greenhouse Funds LLLP $45.9 Mil 1.8% 33 Exited 13F
					Active Manager Value % of Portfolio Total Positions QoQ Filing
Bracebridge Capital, LLC $14.0 Mil 2.5% 28 Hold 13F
Partners Group Holding AG $7.3 Mil 0.5% 50 Hold 13F
				
			
		
	
	
	
	
	
	
		
			
				
				 ADT Trade Sentinel
				
				
					
						
					
					
						
					
					
						
					
					
						
					
				
				
				
				
				
					
						
							
								
									
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								Looking for high-conviction positions with a better risk/reward profile? See what's currently in the 
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								Key KPI Watchlist
								
									
										
											
												
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													Status
													Rationale
												
											
											
												
											
										
									
								
							

						
					

					
						
							
								Core Investment Debate
								
							

							
								
									
										BULL VIEW
										
									
								
								
									
										CORE TENSION
										
										
										PREVAILING SENTIMENT
										
										
									
								
								
									
										BEAR VIEW
										
									
								
							

							
								Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
								
									
										
											
												
													Timeline
													Event & Metric To Watch
												
											
											
												
											
										
									
								
							

							
								Key Events in Last 6 Months
								
									
										
											
												
													Date
													Event
													Stock Impact
												
											
											
												
											
										
									
								
							

							
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											 Position Sizing
											
											
											
										
										
											 Diversification Alternatives
											
												
											
										
									
								
							
						
					

					
						
							How Is The Market Pricing ADT?

							
								
									
								
							

							
								
									
								
							

							
								
									
										 What will confirm the thesis
										
									
								

								
									
										 What will damage the thesis
										
									
								

								
									
										 Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis
										
									
								
							

							
								Repricing Catalyst
								
							

							
								What ADT Makes & Who Pays

								
									
										TTM figures based on 
									
								
								
								
									
								
							

							
								ADT Evolution: Price Return by Era
								
								
								

								
									
										
									
								
							

						
					

	
					
						
						
							
							
								
								

								
									
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									Price Structure & Trend
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									How the Verdict Is Derived
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								Price Intelligence is derived from price-volume pattern analysis only. All moving averages are simple (SMA). Relative strength benchmarked against SPY.
							
						
					
					
				

				
			
		
	
	
	
		
			
				
				

ADT — Investor Video Playlist
Products & ServicesIntroducing our newest DIY Security Solution, ADT Blu
ADT · 2026-05-21
Products & ServicesMySafety Demo: How to Use ADT’s Mobile Security Features
ADT · 2026-03-13
Products & ServicesMeet Live Light: The First Connected ADT Yard Sign
ADT · 2026-03-02
Products & ServicesThis Jewelry Could Help Save Your Life | ADT x invisaWear Partnership
ADT · 2026-02-12
Products & ServicesHow AI Deterrence Helps Protect Your Small Business
ADT · 2026-02-04
Products & Services2026 ADT x CES Recap
ADT · 2026-01-15
Products & ServicesInside ADT’s CES 2026 Demo Space
ADT · 2026-01-08
Products & ServicesInside the Future of Home Security: ADT & Google Intelligent Home Tour
ADT · 2025-12-29
			
		
	
	
		
			
				
				 Industry Resources
Consumer Discretionary Resources
Retail Dive
Business of Fashion (BoF)
WWD (Women's Wear Daily)
National Retail Federation (NRF)
McKinsey & Company - Consumer
Mintel Consumer Trends
Specialized Consumer Services Resources
Consumer Reports
Better Business Bureau (BBB)
TrendWatching
			
		
		
			
				
				 External Quote Links
0 Y Finance Barrons
1 TradingView Morningstar
2 SeekingAlpha ValueLine
3 Motley Fool Robinhood
4 CNBC Etrade
5 MarketWatch Unusual Whales
6 YCharts Perplexity Finance
7 FinViz  

Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why. 
			
		
	

	
		
		        Core Cache Last Updated: 11/6/2026

Ticker	Name	Rev Growth 3Y Avg	P/E	1Y	3Y	5Y	5Y Gap
ADT	ADT	8.0%	11.7x	24.7%	76.9%	23.9%	—
FTDR	Frontdoor	7.7%	23.5x	96.6%	173.0%	167.8%	+144pp

Industry	Names	1Y med	3Y med	5Y med	Top 3 by 5Y
Education Services	14	-12.6%	33.7%	41.0%	CVSA 246% · GHC 109% · LRN 107%
Homebuilding	17	3.7%	29.7%	29.7%	PHM 175% · TOL 159% · GRBK 150%
Automotive Retail	17	-2.1%	18.9%	11.3%	MUSA 209% · PAG 115% · ORLY 111%
Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines	21	19.8%	56.9%	7.0%	RCL 250% · MAR 159% · HLT 147%
Home Improvement Retail	5	-4.3%	3.3%	5.3%	HD 6% · LOW 5% · FND -62%
Home Furnishings	3	4.6%	73.9%	-1.2%	SGI 50% · MHK -15%
Footwear	9	75.0%	79.9%	-15.7%	DECK 23% · SHOO -11% · CROX -16%
Restaurants	36	2.4%	-4.6%	-24.2%	EAT 363% · CAKE 158% · TXRH 110%
Computer & Electronics Retail	3	33.4%	75.8%	-24.5%	BBY -3% · GME -53%
Specialized Consumer Services ←	10	-8.5%	32.3%	-25.5%	FTDR 168% · HRB 146% · ADT 24%
Distributors	4	-5.4%	-16.9%	-26.0%	ARMK 96% · GPC 4% · POOL -56%
Leisure Products	14	-16.4%	-4.9%	-34.4%	GOLF 51% · HAS 50% · BC -14%
Leisure Facilities	12	18.9%	0.4%	-39.5%	OSW 160% · LTH 143% · PLNT -37%
Household Appliances	18	34.2%	20.6%	-40.3%	WHR -82%
Broadline Retail	12	-5.8%	14.0%	-45.7%	EBAY 76% · AMZN 47% · OLLI 24%
Apparel Retail	27	-3.8%	1.8%	-48.8%	ANF 223% · VSXY 110% · TJX 104%
Automotive Parts & Equipment	37	-13.2%	-28.2%	-48.8%	GTX 197% · PATK 64% · ALV 41%
Casinos & Gaming	21	-25.8%	-16.1%	-51.8%	RRR 22% · BYD 19% · LVS 3%
Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods	29	15.8%	17.8%	-53.7%	TPR 255% · RL 225% · KTB 59%
Other Specialty Retail	25	-0.1%	-11.4%	-57.7%	ULTA 65% · ASO 53% · ARHS 26%
Automobile Manufacturers	8	-59.8%	-44.0%	-70.5%	GM 54% · TSLA -12% · F -12%
Consumer Electronics	11	-31.9%	-29.8%	-80.5%	GRMN 122%

	Title	Date
0	DASHBOARDS
1	ADT Stock Falls -19% With A 7-day Losing Spree On Weak Guidance	03/10/2026
2	ADT Stock (-11%): Flat 2026 Guidance Misses Wall Street Expectations	03/03/2026
3	ADT Earnings Notes	12/28/2026
4	How Low Can ADT Stock Really Go?	10/17/2025
5	ADT vs Interactive Brokers: Which Is A Better Investment?	08/18/2025
6	ADT vs Willis Lease Finance: Which Is A Better Investment?	08/18/2025
7	How Does ADT Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers?	08/13/2025
8	ARTICLES
9	What Changed For ADT Stock, And What Did Not?	11/01/2026
10	Was There Any Sign ADT Stock Would Run?	10/30/2026
11	Market Movers \| Winners: GKOS, ADT, BHC \| Losers: IOVA, NOW, BXBL	10/30/2026
12	Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low	03/05/2026
13	Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High	07/25/2025

	ADT	JCI	HON	ALLE	ALRM	REZI	Median
Name	ADT	Johnson .	Honeywel.	Allegion	Alarm.com	Resideo .
Mkt Price	9.88	135.74	220.10	185.44	65.22	19.40	100.48
Mkt Cap	7.2	82.5	69.9	15.7	3.2	2.9	11.5
Rev LTM	5,216	24,995	46,595	4,391	1,084	7,652	6,434
Op Inc LTM	1,284	3,611	9,200	944	143	638	1,114
FCF LTM	1,605	1,659	798	740	190	-1,399	769
FCF 3Y Avg	1,366	2,037	4,442	668	174	-228	1,017
CFO LTM	2,118	2,032	1,947	844	204	-1,269	1,396
CFO 3Y Avg	1,975	2,454	5,401	761	189	-122	1,368

$ Mil	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Monitoring and related services	4,354	4,293	4,179	4,053
Security installation, product, and other	775	605	474	329
Consumer and Small Business (CSB)					4,155
Solar					47
Total	5,129	4,898	4,653	4,382	4,203

Market Price	$9.86
Market Cap ($ Bil)	7.2
First Trading Date	09/10/2014
Distance from 52W High	-0.4%
	50 Days	200 Days
DMA Price	$7.21	$7.04
DMA Trend	indeterminate	down
Distance from DMA	36.8%	40.0%
	3M	1YR
Volatility	73.0%	44.1%
Downside Capture	-73.27	50.52
Upside Capture	88.80	70.23
Correlation (S&P 500)	-0.6%	17.1%

	1M	2M	3M	6M	1Y	3Y
Beta	-0.95	-0.39	-0.06	0.12	0.62	0.79
Up Beta	-8.15	-4.65	-1.56	-0.49	0.55	0.71
Down Beta	3.53	0.91	0.25	0.43	0.77	0.69
Up Capture	235%	103%	98%	52%	58%	77%
Bmk +ve Days	12	18	28	62	130	427
Stock +ve Days	13	21	32	64	128	389
Down Capture	-635%	-161%	-60%	-18%	66%	96%
Bmk -ve Days	10	25	36	64	121	325
Stock -ve Days	9	22	32	60	116	341

	Annualized Return	Annualized Volatility	Sharpe Ratio	Correlation with ADT
ADT	25.4%	44.1%	0.61	-
Sector ETF (XLY)	-1.9%	19.8%	-0.22	28.6%
Equity (SPY)	9.5%	13.6%	0.40	15.4%
Gold (GLD)	1.6%	28.7%	0.05	1.4%
Commodities (DBC)	38.4%	21.2%	1.42	-17.2%
Real Estate (VNQ)	11.3%	14.2%	0.51	38.3%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)	-26.9%	43.6%	-0.60	-3.9%

	Annualized Return	Annualized Volatility	Sharpe Ratio	Correlation with ADT
ADT	6.0%	40.2%	0.24	-
Sector ETF (XLY)	4.0%	24.2%	0.12	43.8%
Equity (SPY)	11.3%	17.3%	0.48	42.1%
Gold (GLD)	17.5%	19.1%	0.74	2.3%
Commodities (DBC)	8.1%	19.6%	0.30	7.2%
Real Estate (VNQ)	1.3%	18.9%	-0.04	45.1%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)	4.1%	51.6%	0.26	18.0%

	Annualized Return	Annualized Volatility	Sharpe Ratio	Correlation with ADT
ADT	1.3%	48.7%	0.20	-
Sector ETF (XLY)	12.8%	22.3%	0.52	39.4%
Equity (SPY)	15.0%	18.0%	0.70	39.5%
Gold (GLD)	11.9%	16.5%	0.59	1.8%
Commodities (DBC)	7.5%	18.1%	0.33	14.9%
Real Estate (VNQ)	5.9%	20.7%	0.24	37.0%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)	60.1%	66.3%	1.00	10.0%

Short Interest: As Of Date	10152026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity	24.4 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 9302026	2.4%
Average Daily Volume	7.3 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest	3.4 days
Basic Shares Quantity	730.8 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares	3.3%

	Title
0	How Low Can ADT Stock Really Go?
1	ADT Stock Return Comparison
2	[10/14/2021] ADT (ADT) Stock Price Forecast: AI Forecasts ADT Stock Price To Be Around $8.75 In A Month (Up 2.4%)
3	ADT (ADT) Stock Return: AI Predicts ADT Average and Excess Return After a Fall or Rise

	Forward Returns
Earnings Date	1D Returns	5D Returns	21D Returns
11/3/2026	0.2%
7/30/2026	1.3%	3.9%	0.7%
4/30/2026	5.0%	-2.7%	-6.4%
3/2/2026	-11.2%	-18.3%	-18.6%
11/4/2025	-8.1%	-7.5%	-7.7%
7/24/2025	2.8%	-0.8%	2.5%
4/24/2025	-2.0%	1.4%	3.0%
2/27/2025	7.8%	2.3%	10.1%
...
SUMMARY STATS
# Positive	15	13	13
# Negative	10	11	11
Median Positive	3.4%	3.9%	9.0%
Median Negative	-8.5%	-8.9%	-7.7%
Max Positive	17.6%	13.6%	19.9%
Max Negative	-19.7%	-27.5%	-18.6%

Report Date	Filing Date	Filing
09/30/2026	11/03/2026	10-Q
06/30/2026	07/30/2026	10-Q
03/31/2026	04/30/2026	10-Q
12/31/2025	03/02/2026	10-K
09/30/2025	11/04/2025	10-Q
06/30/2025	07/24/2025	10-Q
03/31/2025	04/24/2025	10-Q
12/31/2024	02/27/2025	10-K
09/30/2024	10/24/2024	10-Q
06/30/2024	08/01/2024	10-Q
03/31/2024	04/25/2024	10-Q
12/31/2023	02/28/2024	10-K
09/30/2023	11/02/2023	10-Q
06/30/2023	08/08/2023	10-Q
03/31/2023	05/02/2023	10-Q
12/31/2022	02/28/2023	10-K

Forward Guidance					Guidance Change
Metric	Source	Low	Mid	High	% Chg	% Delta	Change	Prior
2026 Total Revenue Growth	Reported		2.0%			2.0%	Raised	Guidance: 0.0% for 2026
2026 Adjusted EPS Growth	Reported		2.0%			2.0%	Raised	Guidance: 0.0% for 2026
2026 Adjusted Free Cash Flow Growth	Reported		30.0%			10.0%	Raised	Guidance: 20.0% for 2026

#	Owner	Title	Holding	Action	Filing Date	Price	Shares	Transacted Value	Value of Held Shares	Form
1	Likosar, Jeffrey	Pres Corp Dev & Trans. & CFO	Direct	Buy	6022026	6.75	15,000	101,250	4,206,564	Form
2	Miller, Kimberly	EVP, CMO & Comm. Officer	Direct	Buy	5182026	6.91	3,625	25,049	386,852	Form
3	Ahmad, Fawad	EVP, Chief Oper and Cust. Off.	Direct	Buy	5122026	6.75	7,500	50,625	2,040,752	Form
4	Khan, Omar	EVP, Chief Business Officer	Direct	Buy	5122026	6.88	7,280	50,080	50,080	Form
5	Houston, Daniel Joseph		Direct	Buy	5122026	6.87	36,450	250,412	513,960	Form

Active Manager	Value	% of Portfolio	Total Positions	QoQ	Filing
Bracebridge Capital, LLC	$14.0 Mil	2.5%	28	Hold	13F
Partners Group Holding AG	$7.3 Mil	0.5%	50	Hold	13F

0	Y Finance	Barrons
1	TradingView	Morningstar
2	SeekingAlpha	ValueLine
3	Motley Fool	Robinhood
4	CNBC	Etrade
5	MarketWatch	Unusual Whales
6	YCharts	Perplexity Finance
7	FinViz

ADT (ADT)

Market Price (11/7/2026): $9.88 | Market Cap: $7.2 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Specialized Consumer Services

ADT (ADT)

Market Price (11/7/2026): $9.88Market Cap: $7.2 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Specialized Consumer Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

ADT in ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

Market Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

Market Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

Market Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

Market Drivers

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

How Low Can It Go

In The Past

Preserve Wealth

Asset Allocation

In The Past

Preserve Wealth

Asset Allocation

About ADT (ADT)

Key Risks to ADT Inc.

Share Repurchases

Share Issuance

Inbound Investments

Outbound Investments

Capital Expenditures

Interactive Breakdown

Better Bets vs. ADT (ADT)

INDUSTRY: Specialized Consumer Services

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg | Lower P/S (Values for ADT: 8.0% | 1.4x)

Higher Rev Chg LTM (Value for ADT: 2.0%)

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg (Value for ADT: 8.0%)

Higher Total Yield (Value for ADT: 11.0%)

SECTOR: Consumer Discretionary

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg | Lower P/S (Values for ADT: 8.0% | 1.4x)

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg | Lower P/Op Inc (Values for ADT: 8.0% | 5.6x)

Higher Rev Chg LTM (Value for ADT: 2.0%)

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg (Value for ADT: 8.0%)

Higher Op Mgn LTM (Value for ADT: 24.6%)

Higher CFO/Rev LTM (Value for ADT: 40.6%)

Higher FCF/Rev LTM (Value for ADT: 30.8%)

Higher Total Yield (Value for ADT: 11.0%)

All Other Sectors

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg | Lower P/S (Values for ADT: 8.0% | 1.4x)

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg | Lower P/Op Inc (Values for ADT: 8.0% | 5.6x)

Higher Rev Chg LTM (Value for ADT: 2.0%)

Higher Rev Chg 3Y Avg (Value for ADT: 8.0%)

Higher Op Mgn LTM (Value for ADT: 24.6%)

Higher CFO/Rev LTM (Value for ADT: 40.6%)

Higher FCF/Rev LTM (Value for ADT: 30.8%)

Higher Total Yield (Value for ADT: 11.0%)

Best Bets in Consumer Discretionary

P/EBIT (Value for ADT: 5.6x)

P/E (Value for ADT: 11.7x)

Rev Chg 3Y Avg (Value for ADT: 8.0%)

Rev Chg LTM (Value for ADT: 2.0%)

Rev Chg Q (Value for ADT: 3.9%)

FCF/Rev 3Y Avg (Value for ADT: 27.0%)

Peer Outperformance in Specialized Consumer Services

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Market Price (11/7/2026): $9.88
Market Cap: $7.2 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Specialized Consumer Services