Alarm.com (ALRM)
Market Price (5/7/2026): $47.0 | Market Cap: $2.3 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Alarm.com (ALRM)
Market Price (5/7/2026): $47.0Market Cap: $2.3 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.7%, FCF Yield is 5.8% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Cloud Computing. Themes include IoT for Buildings, Building Management Systems, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -76%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -74% | Key risksALRM key risks include [1] the significant revenue decline from key partner ADT due to its new partnership with Google and [2] a high revenue concentration, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.7%, FCF Yield is 5.8% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Cloud Computing. Themes include IoT for Buildings, Building Management Systems, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -76%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -74% |
| Key risksALRM key risks include [1] the significant revenue decline from key partner ADT due to its new partnership with Google and [2] a high revenue concentration, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Convertible Note Repayment Impacting GAAP Net Income. Alarm.com's GAAP net income declined to $23.4 million in the first quarter of 2026, down from $27.7 million in the first quarter of 2025. This decrease was primarily due to lower interest income after the company repaid $500.0 million in 0% convertible senior notes in January 2026. The repayment significantly reduced the company's cash and cash equivalents from $960.6 million at the end of 2025 to $497.4 million as of March 31, 2026. While non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA and diluted EPS increased, the substantial cash outflow and its effect on reported net income likely contributed to investor caution.
2. Cautious Hardware Revenue Outlook. Despite an 11.5% year-over-year increase in hardware and other revenue for Q1 2026, which included approximately $5 million from tariff pass-through fees, Alarm.com's management expressed caution regarding the future outlook for this segment. The company anticipates potential price increases for products utilizing memory components due to rising costs and tariffs, and indicated uncertainty about how these increases might affect demand. This forward-looking concern over hardware sales likely weighed on investor sentiment.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -3.6% change in ALRM stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/7/2026 was primarily driven by a -7.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 48.78 | 47.00 | -3.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 992 | 1,011 | 2.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.9% | 13.1% | 1.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.0 | 17.7 | -7.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 50 | 50 | 0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -3.6% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ALRM | -3.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 43.7% |
| Sector (XLK) | 18.1% | 39.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -4.5% change in ALRM stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/7/2026 was primarily driven by a -6.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 49.22 | 47.00 | -4.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 976 | 1,011 | 3.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.3% | 13.1% | -1.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 18.9 | 17.7 | -6.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 50 | 50 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -4.5% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ALRM | -4.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 41.5% |
| Sector (XLK) | 13.2% | 34.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -12.3% change in ALRM stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/7/2026 was primarily driven by a -17.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 53.60 | 47.00 | -12.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 940 | 1,011 | 7.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.2% | 13.1% | -0.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 21.4 | 17.7 | -17.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 49 | 50 | -0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -12.3% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ALRM | -12.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 50.4% |
| Sector (XLK) | 62.6% | 41.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -1.4% change in ALRM stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/7/2026 was primarily driven by a -58.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 47.69 | 47.00 | -1.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 843 | 1,011 | 20.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.7% | 13.1% | 96.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 42.1 | 17.7 | -58.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 50 | 50 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -1.4% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ALRM | -1.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 46.1% |
| Sector (XLK) | 129.7% | 37.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ALRM Return | -18% | -42% | 31% | -6% | -16% | -11% | -56% |
| Peers Return | 35% | -27% | 25% | 29% | 40% | 14% | 154% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 96% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ALRM Win Rate | 42% | 25% | 67% | 25% | 25% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 68% | 37% | 55% | 57% | 62% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ALRM Max Drawdown | -27% | -44% | -8% | -19% | -22% | -17% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -5% | -40% | -17% | -8% | -19% | -12% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ADT, REZI, GOOGL, AMZN, JCI. See ALRM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/7/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ALRM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -15.9% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.9% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 71 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -27.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 52 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -25.0% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.3% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -32.0% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.1% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -32.2% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.4% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 15 days |
In The Past
Alarm.com's stock fell -8.5% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 9.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
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| Event | ALRM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -27.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 52 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -25.0% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.3% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -32.0% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.1% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -32.2% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.4% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 15 days |
In The Past
Alarm.com's stock fell -8.5% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 9.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Alarm.com (ALRM)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Alarm.com (ALRM):
- Alarm.com is like the Intel Inside for smart security and property management systems, providing the core technology and platform that powers many professional service offerings.
- Alarm.com is like the Android or iOS for smart home and business security ecosystems, enabling a wide range of devices and services to work together under one platform.
- Alarm.com is like Amazon Web Services (AWS) for smart property management, providing the foundational cloud platform that powers various security and automation services for homes and businesses.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Interactive Security Solutions: Cloud-based services for monitoring and controlling security systems and connected devices like locks, sensors, and garage doors for smart properties.
- Video Monitoring Solutions: Advanced video surveillance platforms offering live streaming, video analytics, video doorbell integration, and continuous high-definition recording for homes and businesses.
- Intelligent Automation & Energy Management: Smart property automation features, including thermostat scheduling, energy usage monitoring, water safety, and geo-services to enhance comfort and efficiency.
- Commercial Property Management Solutions: Specialized applications of their security, video, and automation platforms tailored for businesses, providing features such as multi-site management and access control.
- Service Provider Solutions: A comprehensive suite of tools and programs, including an online portal, sales support, marketing assistance, and training services for their network of professional service providers.
- Wellness Solutions: Offerings designed to enhance the safety, independence, and overall well-being of occupants within smart homes and commercial spaces.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Alarm.com (ALRM) primarily sells its cloud-based solutions and services to other companies, specifically a network of service providers.
These service providers act as Alarm.com's direct customers, leveraging Alarm.com's platform to offer interactive security, video monitoring, intelligent automation, energy management, and commercial solutions to their own end-users, which include residential and commercial subscribers.
Alarm.com provides its service provider customers with a permission-based online portal that offers account management, sales, marketing, training, and support tools, in addition to home builder programs and wellness solutions.
The provided company description does not list the specific names of these service provider customer companies.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) for Amazon Web Services
- Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) for Google Cloud
- Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) for Microsoft Azure
- Oracle Corporation (ORCL) for Oracle Cloud Infrastructure
AI Analysis | Feedback
Stephen Trundle, Chief Executive Officer
Stephen Trundle has served as the Chief Executive Officer of Alarm.com since May 2003 and as a member of its Board since October 2003. He joined Alarm.com in 2003, after serving in various positions with MicroStrategy Incorporated, including Vice President of Technology and Chief Technology Officer. Mr. Trundle began his career with Bath Iron Works. Alarm.com was founded in 2000 as a spin-off from MicroStrategy. In February 2009, Alarm.com was acquired by venture capital firm ABS Capital Partners for $27.7 million, and ABS Capital Partners, along with Technology Crossover Ventures, remained the majority shareholders after Alarm.com's IPO in June 2015. He led Alarm.com through its IPO in June 2015. Mr. Trundle holds an A.B. in Engineering and an A.B. in Government from Dartmouth College. He is also named as an inventor or co-inventor in over 25 awarded or pending U.S. patents.
Kevin Bradley, Chief Financial Officer
Kevin Bradley was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Alarm.com in March 2025. He joined the company in May 2009 and has held various accounting and finance roles during his tenure. Prior to his appointment as CFO, he served as Director of Financial Planning from December 2013 through May 2017 and then as Vice President of Financial Planning and Analysis from May 2017 through March 2025. In his role as VP of FPA, he actively participated in corporate strategy development and operational decision-making. Before joining Alarm.com, Mr. Bradley worked at Morgan Stanley from 2007 to 2008. Alarm.com was acquired by venture capital firm ABS Capital Partners in February 2009, the same year Mr. Bradley joined the company. He holds a Bachelor of Business Administration from the University of Notre Dame and a Master of Science in Finance from American University.
Daniel Kerzner, President, Platforms Business
Daniel Kerzner joined Alarm.com in December 2013 and is currently the President, Platforms Business. He previously served as Chief Product Officer. Prior to Alarm.com, Mr. Kerzner served as the Chief Executive Officer of Emotive Communications Inc., a software company, from April 2013 to December 2013, which was later acquired by Appconomy. He also held positions at MicroStrategy Incorporated, including Senior Vice President and General Manager of Mobile, and Vice President of Platform and Emerging Technologies. Additionally, he was a Regional Director for PJM Interconnection at EnerNOC, Inc. Mr. Kerzner holds a B.A. in Computer Engineering from Dartmouth College and an M.B.A. from The Wharton School.
Jeffrey Bedell, President, Ventures Business and Corporate Strategy
Jeffrey Bedell joined Alarm.com in April 2013 and serves as the President, Ventures Business and Corporate Strategy. He previously held the role of Chief Strategy and Innovation Officer. Before joining Alarm.com, Mr. Bedell served as Chief Technology Officer at MicroStrategy Incorporated from 2001 to October 2012, and as Executive Vice President of Technology from 2007 to March 2013. Mr. Bedell holds a B.A. in Religion from Dartmouth College.
Daniel Ramos, Chief Legal and Compliance Officer and Senior Vice President, Corporate Operations
Daniel Ramos joined Alarm.com in 2007 and serves as the Chief Legal and Compliance Officer and Senior Vice President of Corporate Operations. Prior to Alarm.com, Mr. Ramos served as Principal Deputy General Counsel for the U.S. Air Force, Department of Defense. He was also the Vice President of Legal and Business Planning at The Away Network, a business unit of Orbitz Worldwide, Inc. Earlier in his career, he was a senior transactional attorney with Shaw Pittman LLP. Mr. Ramos holds an A.B. in Government from Harvard University and a J.D. from Stanford Law School.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Alarm.com (ALRM) are primarily rooted in the highly dynamic and competitive nature of the smart home and commercial security markets, the rapid pace of technological advancements, and the critical importance of data security and privacy.
1. Intense Competition and Market Saturation
Alarm.com operates in a fiercely competitive and rapidly evolving market for smart home and business security solutions. The company faces significant competition from established security providers like ADT Inc. and Honeywell International Inc., which leverage strong brand recognition and extensive dealer networks. Additionally, large technology companies such as Amazon (Ring) and Google (Nest) are prominent competitors, offering integrated smart home ecosystems and DIY solutions that often come at competitive price points. This intense competition can lead to pricing pressure, particularly in the residential market where DIY options are gaining traction, potentially limiting Alarm.com's revenue expansion and squeezing profitability. Maintaining market share against these diverse players requires continuous investment and strategic adjustments.
2. Rapid Technological Change and Innovation
The smart property sector is characterized by continuous and rapid technological advancements, especially in areas like the Internet of Things (IoT), artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), and video analytics. Alarm.com must constantly invest in research and development to update its cloud-based platform, integrate new third-party devices, and offer cutting-edge features to remain relevant. Failure to keep pace with these technological changes or to adapt to evolving consumer preferences could render its offerings less attractive, potentially leading to subscriber churn or difficulty in attracting new customers. The company's ability to capitalize on new market opportunities, such as AI-driven analytics for predictive monitoring, is crucial for offsetting challenges and sustaining growth.
3. Data Security Breaches and Privacy Concerns
As a provider of cloud-based security and smart home solutions, Alarm.com collects and processes a substantial amount of sensitive personal and property data, including video feeds, access logs, and personal schedules. This makes the company a prime target for cyberattacks and data breaches. A successful breach could result in significant financial losses, regulatory penalties, and severe reputational damage, eroding customer trust and directly impacting subscriber retention and future growth. Furthermore, the evolving landscape of state-level privacy and data security laws in various U.S. states (e.g., California) and other consumer protection regulations place additional restrictions on how Alarm.com and its service provider partners use and disclose subscribers' personal information, adding to compliance risks.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The clear emerging threat to Alarm.com comes from the increasing expansion and integration of smart home security and automation ecosystems offered directly by major technology companies such as Amazon (e.g., Ring, Alexa) and Google (e.g., Nest, Google Home). These tech giants are leveraging their significant resources, extensive brand recognition, and deep existing consumer relationships to develop comprehensive, often consumer-installed, and sometimes professionally monitored solutions. This trend threatens Alarm.com's business model, which relies on a network of service providers, by offering consumers potentially lower-cost, more directly integrated, and highly user-friendly alternatives that could bypass the traditional security dealer channel and erode the perceived value of Alarm.com's platform.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Alarm.com (ALRM) operates within several significant addressable markets related to smart residential and commercial properties.
Commercial Security Solutions
- Alarm.com's management estimates the total addressable market for commercial security solutions in North America to be approximately 4.5 to 5 million sites.
- The global commercial security system market size was estimated at USD 202.23 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 540.47 billion by 2033, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.8% from 2025 to 2033.
- North America accounted for the largest revenue share of 37.3% in the global commercial security system market in 2024.
Smart Home Security Solutions (Residential)
- The global smart home security market size was valued at USD 40.38 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 163.15 billion by 2035, expanding at a CAGR of 14.99% from 2025 to 2035.
- North America dominated the global smart home security market, holding more than a 37% share in 2025.
- The U.S. smart home security market alone accounted for over 80% of the North American market share in 2024.
IoT in Smart Buildings / Smart Building Market (Broader, including Commercial)
- The global smart building market size was estimated at USD 141.79 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 554.02 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 18.9% from 2026 to 2033.
- North America dominated the global smart building market with a revenue share of over 35% in 2025.
- Within commercial smart buildings, security and access control systems are identified as the fastest-growing segment, projected to account for an estimated 646 million devices globally by 2028.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Alarm.com (ALRM) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key initiatives: * Continued Growth in SaaS and License Revenue: Alarm.com's business model is largely built on recurring Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) and license revenue, which has consistently shown strong growth. For the full year 2025, SaaS and license revenue increased 9.2% to $689.4 million, and for 2026, it is projected to be in the range of $743.0 million to $745.0 million. The company's focus on maintaining and expanding its core SaaS platform is a primary driver of sustained revenue. * Expansion in Commercial Security and Energy Management Markets: The commercial security and energy businesses are significant contributors to Alarm.com's growth. These segments collectively accounted for 25% of full-year 2025 SaaS revenue and grew approximately 25% year-over-year. The acquisition and integration of EnergyHub, along with the late-2025 acquisition of Resideo Grid Services (RGS), are expected to further boost revenue in the energy management sector by expanding demand response services. * Introduction of New, AI-driven Products and Enhanced Video Solutions: Alarm.com is investing in a culture of innovation, particularly in AI-driven technologies. This includes new product launches such as a premium doorbell with 24/7 onboard recording, battery-powered cameras, and AI Deterrence, which provides AI-generated verbal warnings dynamically adapted to behavior. These advancements in video, analytics, and remote monitoring are anticipated to enhance offerings and increase Average Revenue Per User (ARPU). * International Expansion: Diversifying into international markets is a key strategic focus for Alarm.com. The company has observed increasing adoption of its video services in international markets, with 30% of new international accounts including video in the first quarter of 2025, which is double the rate from the prior year. This global expansion provides an additional avenue for revenue growth.AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Alarm.com authorized a share repurchase program in February 2023 to buy back up to $100 million of its common stock, valid until February 23, 2025.
- During the year ended December 31, 2023, the company repurchased 487,918 shares for $27.3 million at an average price of $55.95 per share.
- For the trailing twelve months ended December 2025, Alarm.com Holdings's Repurchase of Stock was $-42 million.
Share Issuance
- As of November 2025, Alarm.com had 49.91 million shares outstanding, which increased by 8.66% in one year.
- The number of outstanding shares was 49,896,117 at the end of 2025.
Outbound Investments
- Alarm.com has made a total of 8 acquisitions, with activity peaking in 2023 (2 acquisitions) and 2025 (1 acquisition).
- In February 2025, the company acquired chekt.com, a U.S.-based provider of video security systems integrating AI with alarm monitoring.
- Other recent acquisitions within the last few years include EBS (Poland) in May 2023, Vintra in April 2023, and Noonlight in October 2022.
- Purchases of investments by Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. were USD -205.9 million in 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures were approximately $15.74 million in the last 12 months as of November 2025.
- Alarm.com projects capital expenditures to be $24 million for 2025, increasing to $31 million by 2029, consistently representing about 2% of its revenue.
- Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.'s Capital Expenditure was USD -16.3 million in 2025.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Alarm.com Earnings Notes | 12/27/2025 | |
| Can Alarm.com Stock Hold Up When Markets Turn? | 10/17/2025 | |
| Alarm.com vs Alphabet: Which Is A Better Investment? | 08/18/2025 | |
| Alarm.com vs Clear Secure: Which Is A Better Investment? | 08/18/2025 | |
| How Does Alarm.com Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | 08/13/2025 | |
| Better Bet Than ALRM Stock: Pay Less Than Alarm.com To Get More From MU, VST | 08/12/2025 | |
| Better Bet Than ALRM Stock: Pay Less Than Alarm.com To Get More From IDCC, MU | 08/12/2025 | |
| ALRM Dip Buy Analysis | 07/10/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to ALRM.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | PLTR | Palantir Technologies | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | ADSK | Autodesk | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.5% | 8.5% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | BSY | Bentley Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.7% | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | BL | BlackLine | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.2% | 3.2% | -3.0% |
| 03202026 | ALRM | Alarm.com | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -4.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 92.50 |
| Mkt Cap | 45.2 |
| Rev LTM | 15,952 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,344 |
| FCF LTM | 751 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,565 |
| CFO LTM | 1,897 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,107 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 14.8% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 26.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 13.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 17.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 9.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 45.2 |
| P/S | 2.9 |
| P/Op Inc | 21.3 |
| P/EBIT | 18.6 |
| P/E | 20.8 |
| P/CFO | 17.4 |
| Total Yield | 4.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.3% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 10.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 10.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 12.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 49.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 138.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 2.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -5.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 21.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 60.4% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $47.00 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 2.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/26/2015 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -22.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $45.73 | $50.39 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | 2.8% | -6.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 35.2% | 30.0% |
| Downside Capture | 0.63 | 0.69 |
| Upside Capture | 93.52 | 79.28 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 39.9% | 48.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.15 | 0.82 | 0.98 | 0.94 | 1.18 | 0.98 |
| Up Beta | 0.43 | 0.59 | 0.94 | 1.16 | 1.56 | 0.89 |
| Down Beta | -0.54 | 0.04 | 0.48 | 0.60 | 0.84 | 0.85 |
| Up Capture | 111% | 76% | 88% | 76% | 73% | 87% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 14 | 21 | 30 | 56 | 112 | 363 |
| Down Capture | 685% | 145% | 136% | 111% | 130% | 105% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 22 | 34 | 68 | 138 | 387 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ALRM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALRM | -9.8% | 30.0% | -0.33 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 60.0% | 20.6% | 2.18 | 40.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 29.6% | 12.5% | 1.86 | 49.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 37.0% | 27.1% | 1.14 | -11.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 48.7% | 18.0% | 2.12 | -14.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.9% | 13.5% | 0.65 | 33.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -16.3% | 42.1% | -0.31 | 27.0% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ALRM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALRM | -11.9% | 34.1% | -0.31 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 20.4% | 24.8% | 0.73 | 50.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 54.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.1% | 17.9% | 0.96 | 2.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.1% | 19.1% | 0.60 | 7.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.3% | 18.8% | 0.08 | 45.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.0% | 56.0% | 0.34 | 27.4% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ALRM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALRM | 7.6% | 37.7% | 0.31 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 24.4% | 24.4% | 0.91 | 47.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.0% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 48.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.5% | 16.0% | 0.70 | 2.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.4% | 17.8% | 0.44 | 12.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 36.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 68.2% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 17.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | |||
| 2/19/2026 | 0.9% | 7.7% | -1.8% |
| 11/6/2025 | 5.8% | 7.0% | 11.4% |
| 8/7/2025 | 0.1% | 4.4% | 4.9% |
| 5/8/2025 | 1.3% | 6.1% | 6.9% |
| 2/20/2025 | -1.7% | -4.0% | -6.6% |
| 11/7/2024 | 11.1% | 4.9% | 19.5% |
| 8/8/2024 | -6.8% | -8.0% | -15.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 14 | 11 |
| # Negative | 9 | 9 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 5.2% | 6.1% | 11.4% |
| Median Negative | -3.2% | -4.5% | -5.4% |
| Max Positive | 24.1% | 16.8% | 26.9% |
| Max Negative | -9.7% | -17.7% | -29.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/09/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/05/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/19/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 SaaS and license revenue | 175.80 Mil | 175.90 Mil | 176.00 Mil | -0.1% | Lowered | Guidance: 176.10 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| 2026 SaaS and license revenue | 743.00 Mil | 744.00 Mil | 745.00 Mil | 8.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 685.30 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Total revenue | 1.06 Bil | 1.06 Bil | 1.06 Bil | 6.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.00 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Hardware and other revenue | 315.00 Mil | 317.50 Mil | 320.00 Mil | 0.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 315.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA | 213.00 Mil | 214.00 Mil | 215.00 Mil | 7.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 199.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP adjusted net income | 150.50 Mil | 150.75 Mil | 151.00 Mil | 7.3% | Higher New | Guidance: 140.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP adjusted net income per diluted share | 2.78 | 2.79 | 2.79 | 10.1% | Higher New | Guidance: 2.53 for 2025 | |
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/6/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 SaaS and license revenue | 176.00 Mil | 176.10 Mil | 176.20 Mil | ||||
| 2025 SaaS and license revenue | 685.20 Mil | 685.30 Mil | 685.40 Mil | 0.6% | Raised | Guidance: 681.20 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Revenue | 1.00 Bil | 0.7% | Raised | Guidance: 993.20 Mil for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Hardware and other revenue | 315.00 Mil | 315.50 Mil | 316.00 Mil | 1.1% | Raised | Guidance: 312.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA | 199.00 Mil | 1.7% | Raised | Guidance: 195.75 Mil for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Non-GAAP adjusted net income | 140.50 Mil | 3.1% | Raised | Guidance: 136.25 Mil for 2025 | |||
| 2025 EPS | 2.53 | 5.4% | Raised | Guidance: 2.4 for 2025 | |||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bradley, Kevin Christopher | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 3192026 | 45.97 | 1,510 | 69,415 | 2,369,570 | Form |
| 2 | Nevin, Darius G | Direct | Sell | 3192026 | 46.17 | 36,000 | 1,662,120 | 1,125,394 | Form | |
| 3 | Bedell, Jeffrey A | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 12182025 | 51.82 | 22,727 | 1,177,713 | 26,210,815 | Form |
| 4 | Bedell, Jeffrey A | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 12162025 | 52.51 | 2,273 | 119,355 | 26,559,821 | Form |
| 5 | Evans, Stephen C | Direct | Sell | 12162025 | 52.27 | 1,154 | 60,320 | 320,049 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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