Alarm.com (ALRM)
Market Price (11/8/2026): $65.22 | Market Cap: $3.2 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Alarm.com (ALRM)
Market Price (11/8/2026): $65.22Market Cap: $3.2 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.9% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Cloud Computing. Themes include IoT for Buildings, Building Management Systems, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.3% Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -7.0%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -45% | Key risksALRM key risks include [1] the significant revenue decline from key partner ADT due to its new partnership with Google and [2] a high revenue concentration, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.9% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Cloud Computing. Themes include IoT for Buildings, Building Management Systems, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.3% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -7.0%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -45% |
| Key risksALRM key risks include [1] the significant revenue decline from key partner ADT due to its new partnership with Google and [2] a high revenue concentration, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Alarm.com (ALRM) stock has gained about 20% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong outperformance in fiscal Q3 2026 earnings and revenue. Alarm.com reported Non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $0.90 for its fiscal third quarter ended September 30, 2026, significantly surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.77 per share by 16.88%. Total revenue for the quarter reached $279.4 million, exceeding the consensus estimate of $265.6 million by 5.04% and representing a 9.0% increase year-over-year.
2. Upward revision of full-year 2026 financial guidance. Following the strong fiscal Q3 2026 results, Alarm.com increased its guidance for the full fiscal year 2026. The company raised its SaaS and license revenue outlook to a range of $756.1 million to $756.3 million, an increase of $12.2 million from the midpoint of its prior guidance. Additionally, the non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA expectations were elevated to a range of $227.0 million to $229.0 million, marking a $6 million increase at the midpoint.
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Alarm.com (ALRM) stock has gained about 20% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong outperformance in fiscal Q3 2026 earnings and revenue. Alarm.com reported Non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $0.90 for its fiscal third quarter ended September 30, 2026, significantly surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.77 per share by 16.88%. Total revenue for the quarter reached $279.4 million, exceeding the consensus estimate of $265.6 million by 5.04% and representing a 9.0% increase year-over-year.
2. Upward revision of full-year 2026 financial guidance. Following the strong fiscal Q3 2026 results, Alarm.com increased its guidance for the full fiscal year 2026. The company raised its SaaS and license revenue outlook to a range of $756.1 million to $756.3 million, an increase of $12.2 million from the midpoint of its prior guidance. Additionally, the non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA expectations were elevated to a range of $227.0 million to $229.0 million, marking a $6 million increase at the midpoint.
3. Continued robust growth in SaaS and license revenue. Alarm.com's core SaaS and license revenue, a key recurring revenue stream, demonstrated strong growth, increasing by 9.0% to $191.2 million in fiscal Q3 2026 compared to the prior year. This segment's performance exceeded expectations for the quarter.
4. Strategic acquisition of CellGate for market expansion. Alarm.com announced the acquisition of CellGate, a provider specializing in cellular-powered gate access control and video intercom solutions. This strategic move is expected to broaden Alarm.com's market reach through an established fence and gate channel and is projected to contribute between $15 million and $20 million in SaaS and license revenue in fiscal year 2027.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 18.8% change in ALRM stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 29.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 54.75 | 65.03 | 18.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,038 | 1,084 | 4.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.4% | 10.8% | -12.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 21.2 | 27.4 | 29.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 50 | 49 | 0.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 18.8% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ALRM | 18.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | -1.6% | 18.6% |
| Sector (XLK) | -6.1% | -0.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 46.4% change in ALRM stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 63.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 44.41 | 65.03 | 46.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,011 | 1,084 | 7.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.1% | 10.8% | -17.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.7 | 27.4 | 63.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 50 | 49 | 1.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 46.4% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ALRM | 46.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.6% | -1.5% |
| Sector (XLK) | 3.4% | -17.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 32.1% change in ALRM stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 44.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 49.22 | 65.03 | 32.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 976 | 1,084 | 11.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.3% | 10.8% | -18.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 18.9 | 27.4 | 44.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 50 | 49 | 1.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 32.1% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ALRM | 32.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.7% | 18.8% |
| Sector (XLK) | 10.0% | 5.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 27.2% change in ALRM stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 39.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 51.13 | 65.03 | 27.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 858 | 1,084 | 26.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.8% | 10.8% | 39.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 38.3 | 27.4 | -28.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 50 | 49 | 1.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 27.2% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ALRM | 27.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 81.9% | 43.8% |
| Sector (XLK) | 104.5% | 30.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ALRM Return | -18% | -42% | 31% | -6% | -16% | 27% | -37% |
| Peers Return | 35% | -27% | 25% | 29% | 40% | -0% | 121% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ALRM Win Rate | 42% | 25% | 67% | 25% | 25% | 64% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 68% | 37% | 55% | 57% | 62% | 44% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 45% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ALRM Max Drawdown | -30% | -44% | -22% | -31% | -26% | -19% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -19% | -42% | -29% | -18% | -26% | -31% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ADT, REZI, GOOGL, AMZN, JCI. See ALRM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/6/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ALRM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -18.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 23.1% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 549 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -15.9% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.9% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 71 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -27.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 52 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -25.0% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.3% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -32.0% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.1% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -32.2% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.4% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 15 days |
In The Past
Alarm.com's stock fell -18.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 23.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | ALRM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -27.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 52 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -25.0% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.3% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -32.0% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.1% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -32.2% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.4% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 15 days |
In The Past
Alarm.com's stock fell -18.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 23.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Alarm.com (ALRM)
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) is a technology company that provides cloud-based solutions for smart residential and commercial properties. Its core offerings revolve around interactive security and automation, enabling users to remotely control and monitor their security systems and an ecosystem of connected devices. These integrated devices include door locks, motion sensors, garage doors, thermostats, and video cameras, all managed through a unified platform. The company's video monitoring solutions are robust, featuring capabilities such as video analytics, live streaming, video doorbells, and continuous high-definition recording, catering to both homeowners and businesses.
In addition to security, Alarm.com offers intelligent automation and energy management solutions, encompassing smart thermostat schedules, energy usage monitoring, and whole-home water safety. It provides specialized commercial solutions designed for businesses, focusing on security, access control, energy efficiency, and multi-site management. Alarm.com primarily serves individual residential subscribers and various commercial clients, facilitating its services through a network of service providers and engaging in specific programs for home builders. The company also extends its portfolio to include wellness solutions.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Alarm.com (ALRM):
- Alarm.com is like the Intel Inside for smart security and property management systems, providing the core technology and platform that powers many professional service offerings.
- Alarm.com is like the Android or iOS for smart home and business security ecosystems, enabling a wide range of devices and services to work together under one platform.
- Alarm.com is like Amazon Web Services (AWS) for smart property management, providing the foundational cloud platform that powers various security and automation services for homes and businesses.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Interactive Security Solutions: Cloud-based services for monitoring and controlling security systems and connected devices like locks, sensors, and garage doors for smart properties.
- Video Monitoring Solutions: Advanced video surveillance platforms offering live streaming, video analytics, video doorbell integration, and continuous high-definition recording for homes and businesses.
- Intelligent Automation & Energy Management: Smart property automation features, including thermostat scheduling, energy usage monitoring, water safety, and geo-services to enhance comfort and efficiency.
- Commercial Property Management Solutions: Specialized applications of their security, video, and automation platforms tailored for businesses, providing features such as multi-site management and access control.
- Service Provider Solutions: A comprehensive suite of tools and programs, including an online portal, sales support, marketing assistance, and training services for their network of professional service providers.
- Wellness Solutions: Offerings designed to enhance the safety, independence, and overall well-being of occupants within smart homes and commercial spaces.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Alarm.com (ALRM) primarily sells its cloud-based solutions and services to other companies, specifically a network of service providers.
These service providers act as Alarm.com's direct customers, leveraging Alarm.com's platform to offer interactive security, video monitoring, intelligent automation, energy management, and commercial solutions to their own end-users, which include residential and commercial subscribers.
Alarm.com provides its service provider customers with a permission-based online portal that offers account management, sales, marketing, training, and support tools, in addition to home builder programs and wellness solutions.
The provided company description does not list the specific names of these service provider customer companies.
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- Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) for Amazon Web Services
- Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) for Google Cloud
- Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) for Microsoft Azure
- Oracle Corporation (ORCL) for Oracle Cloud Infrastructure
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Stephen Trundle, Chief Executive Officer
Stephen Trundle has served as the Chief Executive Officer of Alarm.com since May 2003 and as a member of its Board since October 2003. He joined Alarm.com in 2003, after serving in various positions with MicroStrategy Incorporated, including Vice President of Technology and Chief Technology Officer. Mr. Trundle began his career with Bath Iron Works. Alarm.com was founded in 2000 as a spin-off from MicroStrategy. In February 2009, Alarm.com was acquired by venture capital firm ABS Capital Partners for $27.7 million, and ABS Capital Partners, along with Technology Crossover Ventures, remained the majority shareholders after Alarm.com's IPO in June 2015. He led Alarm.com through its IPO in June 2015. Mr. Trundle holds an A.B. in Engineering and an A.B. in Government from Dartmouth College. He is also named as an inventor or co-inventor in over 25 awarded or pending U.S. patents.
Kevin Bradley, Chief Financial Officer
Kevin Bradley was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Alarm.com in March 2025. He joined the company in May 2009 and has held various accounting and finance roles during his tenure. Prior to his appointment as CFO, he served as Director of Financial Planning from December 2013 through May 2017 and then as Vice President of Financial Planning and Analysis from May 2017 through March 2025. In his role as VP of FPA, he actively participated in corporate strategy development and operational decision-making. Before joining Alarm.com, Mr. Bradley worked at Morgan Stanley from 2007 to 2008. Alarm.com was acquired by venture capital firm ABS Capital Partners in February 2009, the same year Mr. Bradley joined the company. He holds a Bachelor of Business Administration from the University of Notre Dame and a Master of Science in Finance from American University.
Daniel Kerzner, President, Platforms Business
Daniel Kerzner joined Alarm.com in December 2013 and is currently the President, Platforms Business. He previously served as Chief Product Officer. Prior to Alarm.com, Mr. Kerzner served as the Chief Executive Officer of Emotive Communications Inc., a software company, from April 2013 to December 2013, which was later acquired by Appconomy. He also held positions at MicroStrategy Incorporated, including Senior Vice President and General Manager of Mobile, and Vice President of Platform and Emerging Technologies. Additionally, he was a Regional Director for PJM Interconnection at EnerNOC, Inc. Mr. Kerzner holds a B.A. in Computer Engineering from Dartmouth College and an M.B.A. from The Wharton School.
Jeffrey Bedell, President, Ventures Business and Corporate Strategy
Jeffrey Bedell joined Alarm.com in April 2013 and serves as the President, Ventures Business and Corporate Strategy. He previously held the role of Chief Strategy and Innovation Officer. Before joining Alarm.com, Mr. Bedell served as Chief Technology Officer at MicroStrategy Incorporated from 2001 to October 2012, and as Executive Vice President of Technology from 2007 to March 2013. Mr. Bedell holds a B.A. in Religion from Dartmouth College.
Daniel Ramos, Chief Legal and Compliance Officer and Senior Vice President, Corporate Operations
Daniel Ramos joined Alarm.com in 2007 and serves as the Chief Legal and Compliance Officer and Senior Vice President of Corporate Operations. Prior to Alarm.com, Mr. Ramos served as Principal Deputy General Counsel for the U.S. Air Force, Department of Defense. He was also the Vice President of Legal and Business Planning at The Away Network, a business unit of Orbitz Worldwide, Inc. Earlier in his career, he was a senior transactional attorney with Shaw Pittman LLP. Mr. Ramos holds an A.B. in Government from Harvard University and a J.D. from Stanford Law School.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Alarm.com (ALRM) are primarily rooted in the highly dynamic and competitive nature of the smart home and commercial security markets, the rapid pace of technological advancements, and the critical importance of data security and privacy.
1. Intense Competition and Market Saturation
Alarm.com operates in a fiercely competitive and rapidly evolving market for smart home and business security solutions. The company faces significant competition from established security providers like ADT Inc. and Honeywell International Inc., which leverage strong brand recognition and extensive dealer networks. Additionally, large technology companies such as Amazon (Ring) and Google (Nest) are prominent competitors, offering integrated smart home ecosystems and DIY solutions that often come at competitive price points. This intense competition can lead to pricing pressure, particularly in the residential market where DIY options are gaining traction, potentially limiting Alarm.com's revenue expansion and squeezing profitability. Maintaining market share against these diverse players requires continuous investment and strategic adjustments.
2. Rapid Technological Change and Innovation
The smart property sector is characterized by continuous and rapid technological advancements, especially in areas like the Internet of Things (IoT), artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), and video analytics. Alarm.com must constantly invest in research and development to update its cloud-based platform, integrate new third-party devices, and offer cutting-edge features to remain relevant. Failure to keep pace with these technological changes or to adapt to evolving consumer preferences could render its offerings less attractive, potentially leading to subscriber churn or difficulty in attracting new customers. The company's ability to capitalize on new market opportunities, such as AI-driven analytics for predictive monitoring, is crucial for offsetting challenges and sustaining growth.
3. Data Security Breaches and Privacy Concerns
As a provider of cloud-based security and smart home solutions, Alarm.com collects and processes a substantial amount of sensitive personal and property data, including video feeds, access logs, and personal schedules. This makes the company a prime target for cyberattacks and data breaches. A successful breach could result in significant financial losses, regulatory penalties, and severe reputational damage, eroding customer trust and directly impacting subscriber retention and future growth. Furthermore, the evolving landscape of state-level privacy and data security laws in various U.S. states (e.g., California) and other consumer protection regulations place additional restrictions on how Alarm.com and its service provider partners use and disclose subscribers' personal information, adding to compliance risks.
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The clear emerging threat to Alarm.com comes from the increasing expansion and integration of smart home security and automation ecosystems offered directly by major technology companies such as Amazon (e.g., Ring, Alexa) and Google (e.g., Nest, Google Home). These tech giants are leveraging their significant resources, extensive brand recognition, and deep existing consumer relationships to develop comprehensive, often consumer-installed, and sometimes professionally monitored solutions. This trend threatens Alarm.com's business model, which relies on a network of service providers, by offering consumers potentially lower-cost, more directly integrated, and highly user-friendly alternatives that could bypass the traditional security dealer channel and erode the perceived value of Alarm.com's platform.
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Alarm.com (ALRM) operates within several significant addressable markets related to smart residential and commercial properties.
Commercial Security Solutions
- Alarm.com's management estimates the total addressable market for commercial security solutions in North America to be approximately 4.5 to 5 million sites.
- The global commercial security system market size was estimated at USD 202.23 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 540.47 billion by 2033, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.8% from 2025 to 2033.
- North America accounted for the largest revenue share of 37.3% in the global commercial security system market in 2024.
Smart Home Security Solutions (Residential)
- The global smart home security market size was valued at USD 40.38 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 163.15 billion by 2035, expanding at a CAGR of 14.99% from 2025 to 2035.
- North America dominated the global smart home security market, holding more than a 37% share in 2025.
- The U.S. smart home security market alone accounted for over 80% of the North American market share in 2024.
IoT in Smart Buildings / Smart Building Market (Broader, including Commercial)
- The global smart building market size was estimated at USD 141.79 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 554.02 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 18.9% from 2026 to 2033.
- North America dominated the global smart building market with a revenue share of over 35% in 2025.
- Within commercial smart buildings, security and access control systems are identified as the fastest-growing segment, projected to account for an estimated 646 million devices globally by 2028.
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Share Repurchases
- Alarm.com authorized a share repurchase program in February 2023 to buy back up to $100 million of its common stock, valid until February 23, 2025.
- During the year ended December 31, 2023, the company repurchased 487,918 shares for $27.3 million at an average price of $55.95 per share.
- For the trailing twelve months ended December 2025, Alarm.com Holdings's Repurchase of Stock was $-42 million.
Share Issuance
- As of November 2025, Alarm.com had 49.91 million shares outstanding, which increased by 8.66% in one year.
- The number of outstanding shares was 49,896,117 at the end of 2025.
Outbound Investments
- Alarm.com has made a total of 8 acquisitions, with activity peaking in 2023 (2 acquisitions) and 2025 (1 acquisition).
- In February 2025, the company acquired chekt.com, a U.S.-based provider of video security systems integrating AI with alarm monitoring.
- Other recent acquisitions within the last few years include EBS (Poland) in May 2023, Vintra in April 2023, and Noonlight in October 2022.
- Purchases of investments by Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. were USD -205.9 million in 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures were approximately $15.74 million in the last 12 months as of November 2025.
- Alarm.com projects capital expenditures to be $24 million for 2025, increasing to $31 million by 2029, consistently representing about 2% of its revenue.
- Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.'s Capital Expenditure was USD -16.3 million in 2025.
Peer Outperformance in Application Software
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALRM | Alarm.com | 7.9% | 27.4x | 30.4% | 25.0% | -27.4% | — |
| ACIW | ACI Worldwide | 7.4% | 36.2x | 22.6% | 145.5% | 85.5% | +113pp |
| BOX | Box | 6.6% | 44.1x | 33.8% | 64.6% | 57.0% | +84pp |
| MANH | Manhattan Associates | 9.3% | 69.1x | 42.3% | 19.3% | 40.3% | +68pp |
| SSNC | SS&C Technologies | 6.8% | 21.4x | -6.4% | 54.6% | 7.0% | +34pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electronic Manufacturing Services | 10 | 5.5% | 93.6% | 163.4% | FLEX 421% · TTMI 365% · JBL 272% |
| Technology Distributors | 9 | 43.9% | 52.8% | 52.9% | AVT 122% · SNX 104% · PLUS 53% |
| Semiconductor Materials & Equipment | 28 | 26.7% | 40.7% | 33.2% | AXTI 322% · KLAC 249% · LRCX 245% |
| Electronic Components | 24 | 13.8% | 61.0% | 21.1% | CLS 1777% · BELFA 985% · APH 283% |
| Communications Equipment | 36 | 1.6% | 71.8% | 17.8% | AAOI 755% · LITE 477% · ANET 415% |
| Electronic Equipment & Instruments | 27 | -6.4% | 27.4% | 1.7% | PI 120% · OSIS 105% · MIR 60% |
| Semiconductors | 55 | 6.4% | 37.8% | -12.6% | MU 869% · NVDA 530% · AVGO 474% |
| Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals | 21 | 12.4% | 51.8% | -20.2% | DELL 543% · WDC 531% · SMCI 517% |
| Internet Services & Infrastructure | 6 | -7.1% | 42.2% | -26.0% | GDDY 57% · VRSN 35% · AKAM -23% |
| IT Consulting & Other Services | 30 | -17.8% | -9.2% | -28.2% | APLD 253% · IBM 140% · GIB -8% |
| Application Software ← | 125 | -12.3% | -12.0% | -54.5% | PLTR 517% · FROG 159% · AGYS 143% |
| Systems Software | 70 | -10.7% | 13.7% | -54.6% | ZETA 237% · CRWD 217% · CVLT 133% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Alarm.com Earnings Notes | 12/27/2025 | |
| Can Alarm.com Stock Hold Up When Markets Turn? | 10/17/2025 | |
| Alarm.com vs Alphabet: Which Is A Better Investment? | 08/18/2025 | |
| Alarm.com vs Clear Secure: Which Is A Better Investment? | 08/18/2025 | |
| How Does Alarm.com Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | 08/13/2025 | |
| Better Bet Than ALRM Stock: Pay Less Than Alarm.com To Get More From MU, VST | 08/12/2025 | |
| Better Bet Than ALRM Stock: Pay Less Than Alarm.com To Get More From IDCC, MU | 08/12/2025 | |
| ALRM Dip Buy Analysis | 07/10/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| 37 Small Cap Stocks Hit 52-Week Highs On Monday | 10/27/2026 | |
| The 52-Week-High List: 33 Small Cap Names On Wednesday | 10/22/2026 | |
| What Does Alarm.com’s Falling Multiple Really Say? | 10/20/2026 | |
| 16 Small Cap Stocks Hit 52-Week Highs On Thursday | 10/16/2026 |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 100.48 |
| Mkt Cap | 44.9 |
| Rev LTM | 16,324 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,448 |
| FCF LTM | 897 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,701 |
| CFO LTM | 2,075 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,214 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 17.5% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 22.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 13.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 19.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 44.9 |
| P/S | 3.1 |
| P/Op Inc | 22.4 |
| P/EBIT | 13.9 |
| P/E | 17.8 |
| P/CFO | 16.2 |
| Total Yield | 6.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.5% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -8.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -3.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 9.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 83.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 12.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -3.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -3.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 0.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 17.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alarm.com | 920 | 871 | 824 | 796 | 712 |
| Other | 96 | 73 | 61 | 51 | 43 |
| Intersegment Other | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -2 |
| Intersegment Alarm.com | -3 | -3 | -3 | -4 | -3 |
| Total | 1,011 | 940 | 882 | 843 | 749 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alarm.com | 142 | 122 | 75 | 67 | 71 |
| Intersegment Other | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0 |
| Intersegment Alarm.com | -0 | -0 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| Other | -8 | -13 | -12 | -16 | -10 |
| Total | 134 | 109 | 67 | 51 | 62 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alarm.com | 2,181 | 2,081 | 1,478 | 1,366 | 1,264 |
| Other | 190 | 85 | 74 | 54 | 37 |
| Intersegment Other | -0 | -0 | -0 | 0 | -0 |
| Intersegment Alarm.com | -235 | -128 | -112 | -91 | -70 |
| Total | 2,137 | 2,038 | 1,440 | 1,329 | 1,232 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $65.03 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 3.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/26/2015 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -4.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $57.91 | $50.46 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 12.3% | 28.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 24.6% | 30.6% |
| Downside Capture | -5.31 | 32.12 |
| Upside Capture | 67.68 | 65.54 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 16.0% | 20.0% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.16 | 0.02 | 0.21 | -0.21 | 0.42 | 0.86 |
| Up Beta | -0.67 | -2.23 | -0.62 | -0.90 | 0.26 | 0.86 |
| Down Beta | 0.41 | 0.12 | -0.09 | -0.00 | 0.39 | 0.79 |
| Up Capture | 178% | 75% | 88% | 26% | 52% | 59% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 17 | 29 | 40 | 78 | 135 | 379 |
| Down Capture | -113% | -27% | -7% | -73% | 41% | 99% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 5 | 14 | 24 | 47 | 114 | 370 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ALRM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALRM | 36.5% | 30.6% | 1.02 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 12.1% | 28.4% | 0.39 | 4.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 9.5% | 13.6% | 0.40 | 18.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 1.6% | 28.7% | 0.05 | -2.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 38.4% | 21.2% | 1.42 | -23.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.3% | 14.2% | 0.51 | 29.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -27.2% | 43.6% | -0.61 | 15.9% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ALRM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALRM | -5.1% | 34.0% | -0.10 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 16.2% | 26.4% | 0.55 | 42.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.3% | 17.3% | 0.48 | 49.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.5% | 19.1% | 0.74 | 2.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.1% | 19.6% | 0.30 | 3.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.3% | 18.9% | -0.04 | 45.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.0% | 51.6% | 0.26 | 27.2% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ALRM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALRM | 8.5% | 37.2% | 0.33 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 22.6% | 25.3% | 0.82 | 44.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.0% | 18.0% | 0.70 | 46.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.9% | 16.5% | 0.59 | 2.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 18.1% | 0.33 | 10.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.9% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 36.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.0% | 66.3% | 1.00 | 17.4% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 11/8/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2026 | -3.0% | ||
| 8/6/2026 | 2.2% | -0.9% | 0.3% |
| 5/7/2026 | 1.3% | -9.9% | -4.5% |
| 2/19/2026 | 0.9% | 7.7% | -1.8% |
| 11/6/2025 | 5.8% | 7.0% | 11.4% |
| 8/7/2025 | 0.1% | 4.4% | 4.9% |
| 5/8/2025 | 1.3% | 6.1% | 6.9% |
| 2/20/2025 | -1.7% | -4.0% | -6.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 13 | 11 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 4.2% | 6.1% | 7.6% |
| Median Negative | -2.8% | -4.0% | -5.5% |
| Max Positive | 24.1% | 16.8% | 22.1% |
| Max Negative | -14.4% | -9.9% | -15.5% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2026 | -3.0% | ||
| 8/6/2026 | 2.2% | -0.9% | 0.3% |
| 5/7/2026 | 1.3% | -9.9% | -4.5% |
| 2/19/2026 | 0.9% | 7.7% | -1.8% |
| 11/6/2025 | 5.8% | 7.0% | 11.4% |
| 8/7/2025 | 0.1% | 4.4% | 4.9% |
| 5/8/2025 | 1.3% | 6.1% | 6.9% |
| 2/20/2025 | -1.7% | -4.0% | -6.6% |
| 11/7/2024 | 11.1% | 4.9% | 19.5% |
| 8/8/2024 | -6.8% | -8.0% | -15.5% |
| 5/9/2024 | -1.3% | 1.3% | -9.0% |
| 2/22/2024 | 2.7% | 8.2% | 4.3% |
| 11/9/2023 | 9.9% | 12.9% | 13.6% |
| 8/9/2023 | 24.1% | 16.8% | 19.1% |
| 5/10/2023 | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.2% |
| 2/23/2023 | -2.6% | -4.2% | -5.4% |
| 11/8/2022 | -14.4% | -3.4% | -11.5% |
| 8/9/2022 | 5.3% | 6.0% | -1.8% |
| 5/5/2022 | -5.2% | -4.8% | 7.6% |
| 2/24/2022 | -5.5% | -2.4% | -5.5% |
| 11/4/2021 | 4.2% | -1.1% | -7.5% |
| 8/5/2021 | 5.7% | 0.4% | -0.3% |
| 5/4/2021 | -1.9% | -1.9% | -8.8% |
| 2/25/2021 | -1.0% | -4.5% | -1.8% |
| 11/5/2020 | 12.3% | 8.3% | 22.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 13 | 11 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 4.2% | 6.1% | 7.6% |
| Median Negative | -2.8% | -4.0% | -5.5% |
| Max Positive | 24.1% | 16.8% | 22.1% |
| Max Negative | -14.4% | -9.9% | -15.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/09/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/09/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/24/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/25/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/07/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/26/2020 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 11/6/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 11/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 SaaS and license revenue | Reported | 194.60 Mil | 194.70 Mil | 194.80 Mil | 2.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 189.90 Mil for Q3 2026 | |
| 2026 SaaS and license revenue | Reported | 756.10 Mil | 756.20 Mil | 756.30 Mil | 0.3% | Raised | Guidance: 754.20 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Total revenue | Reported | 1.10 Bil | 1.11 Bil | 1.11 Bil | 2.0% | Raised | Guidance: 1.08 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Hardware and other revenue | Reported | 345.00 Mil | 350.00 Mil | 355.00 Mil | 6.1% | Raised | Guidance: 330.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 227.00 Mil | 228.00 Mil | 229.00 Mil | 2.7% | Raised | Guidance: 222.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Estimated tax rate | Reported | 21.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Non-GAAP adjusted net income attributable to common stockholders | Reported | 161.20 Mil | 161.90 Mil | 162.60 Mil | 3.5% | Raised | Guidance: 156.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP adjusted net income attributable to common stockholders per diluted share | Reported | 3.02 | 3.03 | 3.04 | 3.4% | Raised | Guidance: 2.93 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Weighted average diluted shares outstanding | Reported | 56.30 Mil | ||||||
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 SaaS and license revenue | Reported | 189.80 Mil | 189.90 Mil | 190.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 SaaS and license revenue | Reported | 754.00 Mil | 754.20 Mil | 754.40 Mil | 0.6% | Raised | Guidance: 750.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Total revenue | Reported | 1.08 Bil | 1.08 Bil | 1.09 Bil | 1.8% | Raised | Guidance: 1.06 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Hardware and other revenue | Reported | 325.00 Mil | 330.00 Mil | 335.00 Mil | 4.8% | Raised | Guidance: 315.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 221.00 Mil | 222.00 Mil | 223.00 Mil | 3.0% | Raised | Guidance: 215.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP adjusted net income attributable to common stockholders | Reported | 156.00 Mil | 156.50 Mil | 157.00 Mil | 3.1% | Raised | Guidance: 151.75 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP adjusted net income attributable to common stockholders per diluted share | Reported | 2.92 | 2.93 | 2.94 | 4.1% | Raised | Guidance: 2.82 for 2026 | |
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/7/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 SaaS and license revenue | Reported | 185.50 Mil | 185.60 Mil | 185.70 Mil | ||||
| 2026 SaaS and license revenue | Reported | 749.50 Mil | 750.00 Mil | 750.50 Mil | 0.8% | Raised | Guidance: 744.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Total revenue | Reported | 1.06 Bil | 1.06 Bil | 1.07 Bil | 0.3% | Raised | Guidance: 1.06 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Hardware and other revenue | Reported | 310.00 Mil | 315.00 Mil | 320.00 Mil | -0.8% | Lowered | Guidance: 317.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 215.00 Mil | 215.50 Mil | 216.00 Mil | 0.7% | Raised | Guidance: 214.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP adjusted net income | Reported | 151.50 Mil | 151.75 Mil | 152.00 Mil | 0.7% | Raised | Guidance: 150.75 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP adjusted net income per diluted share | Reported | 2.81 | 2.82 | 2.82 | 1.1% | Raised | Guidance: 2.79 for 2026 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/19/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 SaaS and license revenue | Reported | 175.80 Mil | 175.90 Mil | 176.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 SaaS and license revenue | Reported | 743.00 Mil | 744.00 Mil | 745.00 Mil | 8.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 685.30 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Total revenue | Reported | 1.06 Bil | 1.06 Bil | 1.06 Bil | 6.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.00 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Hardware and other revenue | Reported | 315.00 Mil | 317.50 Mil | 320.00 Mil | 0.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 315.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 213.00 Mil | 214.00 Mil | 215.00 Mil | 7.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 199.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP adjusted net income | Reported | 150.50 Mil | 150.75 Mil | 151.00 Mil | 7.3% | Higher New | Guidance: 140.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP adjusted net income per diluted share | Reported | 2.78 | 2.79 | 2.79 | 10.1% | Higher New | Guidance: 2.53 for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 9/4/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trundle, Stephen | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 8252026 | 57.67 | 50,000 | 2,883,500 | 18,733,638 | Form |
| 2 | Bradley, Kevin Christopher | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 8142026 | 55.07 | 5,400 | 297,378 | 4,307,686 | Form |
| 3 | Bradley, Kevin Christopher | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 7022026 | 48.46 | 724 | 35,085 | 4,052,322 | Form |
| 4 | Ramos, Daniel | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 46.50 | 2,000 | 93,000 | 2,469,104 | Form |
| 5 | Ramos, Daniel | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 46.23 | 8,000 | 369,840 | 2,547,227 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trundle, Stephen | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 8252026 | 57.67 | 50,000 | 2,883,500 | 18,733,638 | Form |
| 2 | Bradley, Kevin Christopher | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 8142026 | 55.07 | 5,400 | 297,378 | 4,307,686 | Form |
| 3 | Bradley, Kevin Christopher | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 7022026 | 48.46 | 724 | 35,085 | 4,052,322 | Form |
| 4 | Ramos, Daniel | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 46.50 | 2,000 | 93,000 | 2,469,104 | Form |
| 5 | Ramos, Daniel | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 46.23 | 8,000 | 369,840 | 2,547,227 | Form |
| 6 | Bradley, Kevin Christopher | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 46.15 | 2,200 | 101,530 | 3,892,568 | Form |
| 7 | Trundle, Stephen | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 5282026 | 43.78 | 6,073 | 265,876 | 14,221,583 | Form |
| 8 | Ramos, Daniel | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 5282026 | 43.78 | 2,532 | 110,851 | 2,762,474 | Form |
| 9 | Kerzner, Daniel | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 5282026 | 43.78 | 3,944 | 172,668 | 4,427,953 | Form |
| 10 | Kerzner, Daniel | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 5202026 | 43.56 | 1,915 | 83,417 | 4,577,503 | Form |
| 11 | Ramos, Daniel | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 5202026 | 43.56 | 1,561 | 67,997 | 2,858,886 | Form |
| 12 | Trundle, Stephen | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 5202026 | 43.56 | 2,944 | 128,241 | 14,414,657 | Form |
| 13 | Bradley, Kevin Christopher | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 3192026 | 45.97 | 1,510 | 69,415 | 2,369,570 | Form |
| 14 | Nevin, Darius G | Direct | Sell | 3192026 | 46.17 | 36,000 | 1,662,120 | 1,125,394 | Form | |
| 15 | Bedell, Jeffrey A | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 12182025 | 51.82 | 22,727 | 1,177,713 | 26,210,815 | Form |
| 16 | Bedell, Jeffrey A | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 12162025 | 52.51 | 2,273 | 119,355 | 26,559,821 | Form |
| 17 | Evans, Stephen C | Direct | Sell | 12162025 | 52.27 | 1,154 | 60,320 | 320,049 | Form | |
| 18 | Trundle, Stephen | Chief Executive Officer | LLC | Buy | 11202025 | 48.07 | 10,000 | 480,660 | 63,223,277 | Form |
| 19 | Trundle, Stephen | Chief Executive Officer | LLC | Buy | 11202025 | 48.53 | 12,469 | 605,121 | 63,348,296 | Form |
| 20 | Trundle, Stephen | Chief Executive Officer | LLC | Buy | 11202025 | 48.57 | 3,531 | 171,501 | 62,794,890 | Form |
| 21 | Kerzner, Daniel | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 11142025 | 50.33 | 10,000 | 503,300 | 2,617,160 | Form |
| 22 | Kerzner, Daniel | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 11142025 | 50.29 | 20,004 | 1,006,001 | 2,615,080 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 8, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
ALRM Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Alarm.com's highly sticky platform, with 95% revenue retention, is successfully expanding into commercial and energy markets growing at over 25%. This execution is balanced against a clear deceleration in core SaaS growth and significant uncertainty around its relationship with key partner ADT, which represents over 15% of revenue and is being acquired.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Recurring Subscription (SaaS) with an ancillary hardware component.Number of Subscribers x Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) Incremental margin on high-ARPU add-on services (e.g., video analytics, remote monitoring) sold to the existing subscriber base.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests a successful transition is underway, with new initiatives now a material part of the business.
- Growth initiatives in commercial and energy grew at a rate of at least 25% in Q3.
- EnergyHub can service 50 million meters in North America, with current penetration at only 5%.
- The new fire communicator product targets an addressable market of 4 to 5 million panels.
- The recent CellGate acquisition is expected to add $15 million to $20 million in 2027 SaaS revenue.
- Management raised full-year 2026 guidance for revenue, SaaS revenue, and adjusted EBITDA.
PRIMARY RISK
Core SaaS growth is guided to slow to ~6% organically in 2027, while key partner ADT (>15% of revenue) is being acquired. A strategic shift by ADT's new owner could structurally impair revenue, compounding the slowdown in the core business and leading to a significant de-rating of the stock.
- ADT represented greater than 15% of revenue in each of the last three years.
- ADT's acquisition by a new owner is expected to close in the first quarter of 2027.
- SaaS revenue growth decelerated to 9% in Q3, from 11.1% in Q2.
- Q4 SaaS growth is guided to slow further to approximately 8%.
- Preliminary 2027 organic SaaS growth outlook is approximately 6%.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| SaaS and License Revenue Growth | 9% year-over-year for Q3 2026 - Decelerating | The year-over-year growth rate decelerated in the latest quarter after holding steady above 10% in the first half of the year. Guidance for Q4 2026 implies further deceleration to approximately 8% growth at the midpoint. |
| SaaS and License Revenue Renewal Rate | in the 95% range for Q3 2026 - Stable | The renewal rate has remained exceptionally strong and stable in the 95% range throughout 2026, an improvement from 94% in 2023. Management noted in Q1 that the rate was one of the highest in the past decade. |
New Growth Vectors vs. Core Maturation
BULL VIEW
Bulls focus on strong execution in new markets, like the EnergyHub business which can service 50 million meters, and believe this diversification will successfully re-accelerate growth and drive margin expansion, justifying a premium valuation.
CORE TENSION
Can 25% growth from new initiatives offset the core business slowing to ~6% growth amid uncertainty from the ADT acquisition?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bulls, as management continues to beat and raise guidance while demonstrating tangible progress and scale in its new, faster-growing commercial and energy segments.
BEAR VIEW
Bears see the decelerating SaaS growth guidance to ~6% and the uncertainty around the ADT acquisition as insurmountable headwinds, suggesting the company's compounding era is over and risks are skewed to the downside.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
2/1/2027 | Peer JCI Earnings Report Watch: Peer Johnson Controls International (JCI) is scheduled to report earnings. |
2/2/2027 | Peer Alphabet Earnings Report Watch: Peer Alphabet (GOOGL) is scheduled to report earnings. |
2/17/2027 | Hardware Margin Contraction Watch: Reported Q4 hardware gross margin versus the 20.5% guide and any change to the 2027 margin outlook. |
2/17/2027 | Accounts Receivable Quality Watch: Management's explanation for the growth, changes in days sales outstanding (DSO), or an increase in bad debt expense. |
2/17/2027 | Q4 Earnings and 2027 Guidance Watch: Alarm.com is scheduled to report Q4 2026 earnings and provide formal annual guidance for 2027. |
2/22/2027 | Slowing Channel Demand Watch: Resideo's commentary on its security distribution channel and new install trends in its Q4 earnings report. |
3/1/2027 | Major Customer Strategy Shift Watch: Commentary from ADT management on its Q4 earnings call regarding its platform strategy and supplier relationships post-acquisition. |
through November 28th | Major Customer Go-Shop Period Watch: ADT, a major customer, has a 'go-shop' period as part of its acquisition by Thrive Holdings. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-11-05 | Q3 Beat, Guidance Raise, Acquisition Details: The company surpassed Q3 earnings and revenue estimates, raised its full-year 2026 guidance, and announced the acquisition of CellGate, a provider of gate access solutions. | -4.3% $67.96 -> $65.03 |
2026-10-06 | New Battery-Powered Video Doorbell Details: The company launched the 781B Battery Video Doorbell, a wire-free product designed to extend video security to entryways where traditional wiring is not practical. | -2.8% $56.24 -> $54.68 |
2026-09-05 | News Highlights Millennial Growth Driver Details: Press reports noted that millennials have embraced home security systems more than previous generations, presenting a growth opportunity for the company. | -1.3% $56.73 -> $56.01 |
2026-08-06 | Q2 Results Exceed Expectations Details: The company reported strong Q2 results, with SaaS and license revenue up 11% year-over-year, and raised its full-year revenue and profitability outlook. | +1.5% $56.66 -> $57.53 |
2026-07-16 | Expansion into Commercial Fire Details: The company announced its expansion into the commercial fire category with a new Fire Communicator product, targeting an addressable market of 4 to 5 million fire panels. | +1.8% $52.25 -> $53.20 |
2026-05-07 | Q1 Earnings and Revenue Beat Details: The company reported Q1 earnings of $0.65 per share, beating estimates. The stock reacted positively, rising 5.0% over two days following the announcement. | +4.8% $45.44 -> $47.60 |
Position Sizing
5% - 7%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: ALRM trades at roughly 24% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 14% for the S&P 500 (1.7x the market). A 5% - 7% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
GOOGL - a business partner
DIY Smart Home Leadera business partner provides exposure to the do-it-yourself smart home market through its Nest products, a segment Alarm.com does not directly serve. It offers massive scale and R&D resources far exceeding Alarm.com's.
ADT - ADT
Incumbent Security ProviderADT is a direct competitor and major partner, offering pure-play exposure to the North American security market. It has a much larger revenue base and is currently undergoing a strategic acquisition.
A picks-and-shovels SaaS provider for the professional security industry, monetizing the long-tail of independent dealers with a sticky, integrated IoT platform.
Alarm.com provides the essential cloud platform that enables thousands of independent service providers to compete in the modern smart home and commercial security markets. Its revenue is driven by the number of connected properties on its platform, with growth coming from both subscriber additions via its partners and increased ARPU through upselling advanced services like video analytics. The business model is capital-efficient, with partners handling customer acquisition, allowing Alarm.com to focus on R&D and platform expansion into adjacent growth areas like energy management.
Sustained high SaaS renewal rates, continued ARPU expansion from video and commercial services, and accelerated growth in the EnergyHub business.
A significant decline in the SaaS renewal rate, price compression from competitors, or a major service provider partner (like ADT) moving off the platform faster than expected.
Short-term fluctuations in hardware revenue or margins, which can be affected by supply chain issues and tariffs but are secondary to the core recurring SaaS business.
Repricing Catalyst
The company's ability to continue delivering high-single-digit organic SaaS growth while expanding into higher-growth commercial and energy markets, potentially leading to a re-rating as a diversified IoT platform rather than just a residential security provider.
Alarm.com
$961M TTM (89% of Total) · 16% MarginWhat It Is
This segment provides cloud-based and software platforms for intelligently connected properties and related solutions, sold through service provider partners to residential and commercial customers.
Who Pays & How
Professional service provider partners pay monthly fees per subscriber to access the platform. They choose Alarm.com for its comprehensive, integrated suite of solutions (security, video, automation) and the business management tools that help them operate and grow.
Competition
Other
$128M TTM (12% of Total) · -12% MarginWhat It Is
This segment focuses on researching, developing, and offering residential and commercial automation solutions and energy management products and services in adjacent markets, such as the EnergyHub subsidiary.
Who Pays & How
Customers in this segment include utilities, which pay for EnergyHub's software platform to manage distributed energy resources (DERs) and create virtual power plants (VPPs) to help stabilize the electric grid.
Competition
Alarm.com — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Information Technology Resources |
| TechCrunch |
| Wired |
| CIO |
| MIT Technology Review |
| Gartner Insights |
| Ars Technica |
| Application Software Resources |
| Capterra |
| Software Advice |
| InfoWorld |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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