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Alarm.com (ALRM)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $52.09 | Market Cap: $2.6 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software

Alarm.com (ALRM)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $52.09
Market Cap: $2.6 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Application Software

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -55%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -63%
 
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 5.8%
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 29%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Cloud Computing. Themes include IoT for Buildings, Building Management Systems, Show more.
  
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 5.8%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 29%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Cloud Computing. Themes include IoT for Buildings, Building Management Systems, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -55%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -63%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ALRM Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points that may have contributed to Alarm.com's (ALRM) stock movement from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: 1. Analyst Price Target Reductions and "Sell" Ratings

In November 2025, Goldman Sachs lowered its price target for Alarm.com to $56 from $63. Concurrently, J.P. Morgan reiterated a "Sell" rating on the stock, indicating a cautious outlook from some analysts which could have exerted downward pressure. 2. Post-Q2 2025 Earnings Dip Despite Beat

Although Alarm.com exceeded analyst expectations for both EPS and revenue in its Q2 2025 earnings reported on August 7, 2025, the stock experienced a 2.56% decline in after-hours trading, closing at $54.34. This initial negative market reaction to otherwise strong financial results may have carried over, setting a cautious tone for investors as the requested period began.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ALRM Return141%-18%-42%31%-6%-15%20%
Peers Return1%6%6%-1%228%858%3436%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ALRM Win Rate75%42%25%67%25%20% 
Peers Win Rate12%18%37%45%50%44% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ALRM Max Drawdown-20%-27%-44%-8%-19%-22% 
Peers Max Drawdown-13%-2%-14%-36%-16%-42% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CWAN, SOUN, DGII, BMR, BTTC. See ALRM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventALRMS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-57.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven137.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-31.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven46.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven56 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-41.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven71.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven222 days120 days

Compare to CWAN, SOUN, DGII, BMR, BTTC


In The Past

Alarm.com's stock fell -57.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/13/2021. A -57.9% loss requires a 137.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Alarm.com (ALRM)

Better Bets than Alarm.com (ALRM)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ALRM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
0.9%0.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
0.8%0.8%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.3%3.3%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.1%5.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.0%4.0%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
0.9%0.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
0.8%0.8%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.3%3.3%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.1%5.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.0%4.0%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Alarm.com

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ALRMCWANSOUNDGIIBMRBTTCMedian
NameAlarm.comClearwat.SoundHou.Digi Int.Beamr Im.Black Ti. 
Mkt Price52.1121.3011.7842.922.223.4216.54
Mkt Cap2.66.14.71.6--3.7
Rev LTM992640131421-2421
Op Inc LTM1300-16657--00
FCF LTM15382-113103--93
FCF 3Y Avg15092-9066--79
CFO LTM17491-112106--99
CFO 3Y Avg16599-8969--84

Growth & Margins

ALRMCWANSOUNDGIIBMRBTTCMedian
NameAlarm.comClearwat.SoundHou.Digi Int.Beamr Im.Black Ti. 
Rev Chg LTM7.4%50.9%137.0%-2.4%--29.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg6.1%30.9%91.6%5.7%--18.5%
Rev Chg Q6.6%77.1%217.1%2.2%--41.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.6%16.2%28.6%0.6%--8.9%
Op Mgn LTM13.1%0.0%-126.2%13.5%--3.8%0.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg10.2%-0.4%-172.9%11.7%--4.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.2%-0.1%13.0%0.4%--0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM17.5%14.3%-85.3%25.3%--15.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg17.7%22.2%-148.3%16.1%--16.9%
FCF/Rev LTM15.4%12.8%-85.8%24.5%--14.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg16.2%20.7%-149.3%15.4%--15.8%

Valuation

ALRMCWANSOUNDGIIBMRBTTCMedian
NameAlarm.comClearwat.SoundHou.Digi Int.Beamr Im.Black Ti. 
Mkt Cap2.66.14.71.6--3.7
P/S2.78.132.73.1--5.6
P/EBIT14.92,193.3-18.622.7--18.8
P/E20.713.2-19.130.3--16.9
P/CFO15.356.8-38.312.1--13.7
Total Yield4.8%7.6%-5.2%3.3%--4.1%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%--0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg5.4%1.9%-5.5%5.9%--3.7%
D/E0.40.20.00.0--0.1
Net D/E0.00.2-0.10.0--0.0

Returns

ALRMCWANSOUNDGIIBMRBTTCMedian
NameAlarm.comClearwat.SoundHou.Digi Int.Beamr Im.Black Ti. 
1M Rtn6.2%17.4%-31.2%18.7%-12.3%-3.1%1.5%
3M Rtn-8.6%5.4%-7.5%26.7%-20.1%-14.5%-8.1%
6M Rtn-9.9%-7.9%15.9%27.9%-30.6%-14.5%-8.9%
12M Rtn-21.1%-28.1%32.7%29.1%-27.5%4,785.7%4.0%
3Y Rtn3.8%13.3%772.6%4.5%-3,320.0%13.3%
1M Excs Rtn6.2%17.4%-31.1%18.8%-12.2%-3.1%1.6%
3M Excs Rtn-14.1%0.3%-16.7%20.5%-23.1%-19.8%-15.4%
6M Excs Rtn-24.6%-22.6%1.2%13.2%-45.3%-29.2%-23.6%
12M Excs Rtn-33.6%-44.9%13.0%15.7%-45.7%4,643.1%-10.3%
3Y Excs Rtn-63.1%-53.8%712.9%-68.1%-3,299.3%-53.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Alarm.com1,4781,3661,264764590
Other7454372718
Intersegment Other-00-00 
Intersegment Alarm.com-112-91-70-59-50
Total1,4401,3291,232732558


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,252,463
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-5.6%
Average Daily Volume376,266
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.99
Basic Shares Quantity49,896,117
Short % of Basic Shares4.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025509202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024220202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024510202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023222202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022224202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021224202210-K 12/31/2021