Alarm.com (ALRM)
Market Price (8/9/2026): $57.51 | Market Cap: $2.8 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Alarm.com (ALRM)
Market Price (8/9/2026): $57.51Market Cap: $2.8 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 6.6% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Cloud Computing. Themes include IoT for Buildings, Building Management Systems, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.8% Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -58%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -64% | Key risksALRM key risks include [1] the significant revenue decline from key partner ADT due to its new partnership with Google and [2] a high revenue concentration, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 6.6% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Cloud Computing. Themes include IoT for Buildings, Building Management Systems, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.8% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -58%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -64% |
| Key risksALRM key risks include [1] the significant revenue decline from key partner ADT due to its new partnership with Google and [2] a high revenue concentration, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Alarm.com (ALRM) stock has gained about 30% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Alarm.com reported strong fiscal Q2 2026 results that significantly exceeded analyst expectations and subsequently raised its full-year fiscal 2026 guidance. The company announced non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.77, beating the consensus estimate of $0.65 by $0.12, and revenue of $277.7 million, surpassing estimates of $264.96 million by $12.66 million. This revenue marked a 9.2% year-over-year increase, with SaaS and license revenue specifically growing 11.1% to $188.8 million. Following this outperformance, management increased its full-year fiscal 2026 guidance, raising SaaS and license revenue to a range of $754.0 million–$754.4 million and adjusted EPS guidance to $2.92–$2.94.
2. The company demonstrated robust growth across key business segments and strategically expanded its market reach. Commercial initiatives and the EnergyHub segment collectively grew more than 30% year-over-year in fiscal Q2 2026. Alarm.com further expanded into a new commercial category by launching a Fire Communicator, targeting an estimated 4 million to 5 million fire panels in the U.S. and Canada. Additionally, the international business surpassed 1 million active subscriber accounts, indicating successful global expansion.
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Alarm.com (ALRM) stock has gained about 30% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Alarm.com reported strong fiscal Q2 2026 results that significantly exceeded analyst expectations and subsequently raised its full-year fiscal 2026 guidance. The company announced non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.77, beating the consensus estimate of $0.65 by $0.12, and revenue of $277.7 million, surpassing estimates of $264.96 million by $12.66 million. This revenue marked a 9.2% year-over-year increase, with SaaS and license revenue specifically growing 11.1% to $188.8 million. Following this outperformance, management increased its full-year fiscal 2026 guidance, raising SaaS and license revenue to a range of $754.0 million–$754.4 million and adjusted EPS guidance to $2.92–$2.94.
2. The company demonstrated robust growth across key business segments and strategically expanded its market reach. Commercial initiatives and the EnergyHub segment collectively grew more than 30% year-over-year in fiscal Q2 2026. Alarm.com further expanded into a new commercial category by launching a Fire Communicator, targeting an estimated 4 million to 5 million fire panels in the U.S. and Canada. Additionally, the international business surpassed 1 million active subscriber accounts, indicating successful global expansion.
3. Positive analyst sentiment and price target revisions contributed to investor confidence. During the specified period, Wall Street Zen upgraded Alarm.com's rating from "hold" to "buy" on July 12, 2026, and Weiss Ratings upgraded the company from a "hold (c-)" to a "hold (c)" on July 29, 2026. Barclays also raised its price objective for Alarm.com from $50.00 to $55.00 on May 8, 2026. The average analyst price target for ALRM stood at $60, suggesting potential upside.
4. Favorable market conditions in the smart home security and broader software-as-a-service (SaaS) industry provided a tailwind. The global smart home security market was valued at $41.4 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to $49 billion in 2026, driven by increased adoption of AI-enabled devices and IoT connectivity. This robust market expansion creates a positive environment for Alarm.com. Moreover, the software-as-a-service segment experienced a positive trend, with average share prices increasing by 9.6% over the month leading up to Alarm.com's Q2 earnings, an environment in which Alarm.com outperformed with a 12% rise in the same timeframe.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 29.5% change in ALRM stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 44.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 8092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 44.41 | 57.51 | 29.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,011 | 1,061 | 4.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.1% | 11.1% | -15.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.7 | 24.1 | 44.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 50 | 49 | 1.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 29.5% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 8/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ALRM | 29.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.6% | -13.6% |
| Sector (XLK) | 17.8% | -26.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 17.9% change in ALRM stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 26.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 8092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 48.78 | 57.51 | 17.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 992 | 1,061 | 7.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.9% | 11.1% | -14.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.0 | 24.1 | 26.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 50 | 49 | 1.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 17.9% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 8/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ALRM | 17.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.1% | 14.9% |
| Sector (XLK) | 30.8% | 2.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 5.3% change in ALRM stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 13.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 8092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 54.63 | 57.51 | 5.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 955 | 1,061 | 11.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.4% | 11.1% | -17.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 21.1 | 24.1 | 13.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 50 | 49 | 0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 5.3% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 8/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ALRM | 5.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 23.4% | 26.3% |
| Sector (XLK) | 43.7% | 12.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 4.2% change in ALRM stock from 7/31/2023 to 8/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 52.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 7312023 | 8092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 55.21 | 57.51 | 4.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 847 | 1,061 | 25.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.3% | 11.1% | 52.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 44.4 | 24.1 | -45.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 50 | 49 | 0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 4.2% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 8/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ALRM | 4.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.9% | 41.3% |
| Sector (XLK) | 114.7% | 30.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ALRM Return | -18% | -42% | 31% | -6% | -16% | 10% | -46% |
| Peers Return | 35% | -27% | 25% | 29% | 40% | 7% | 137% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ALRM Win Rate | 42% | 25% | 67% | 25% | 25% | 62% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 68% | 37% | 55% | 57% | 62% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ALRM Max Drawdown | -30% | -44% | -22% | -31% | -26% | -19% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -19% | -42% | -29% | -18% | -26% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ADT, REZI, GOOGL, AMZN, JCI. See ALRM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/7/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ALRM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -15.9% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.9% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 71 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -27.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 52 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -25.0% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.3% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -32.0% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.1% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -32.2% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.4% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 15 days |
In The Past
Alarm.com's stock fell -8.5% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 9.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
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| Event | ALRM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -27.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 52 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -25.0% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.3% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -32.0% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.1% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -32.2% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.4% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 15 days |
In The Past
Alarm.com's stock fell -8.5% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 9.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Alarm.com (ALRM)
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) is a technology company that provides cloud-based solutions for smart residential and commercial properties. Its core offerings revolve around interactive security and automation, enabling users to remotely control and monitor their security systems and an ecosystem of connected devices. These integrated devices include door locks, motion sensors, garage doors, thermostats, and video cameras, all managed through a unified platform. The company's video monitoring solutions are robust, featuring capabilities such as video analytics, live streaming, video doorbells, and continuous high-definition recording, catering to both homeowners and businesses.
In addition to security, Alarm.com offers intelligent automation and energy management solutions, encompassing smart thermostat schedules, energy usage monitoring, and whole-home water safety. It provides specialized commercial solutions designed for businesses, focusing on security, access control, energy efficiency, and multi-site management. Alarm.com primarily serves individual residential subscribers and various commercial clients, facilitating its services through a network of service providers and engaging in specific programs for home builders. The company also extends its portfolio to include wellness solutions.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Alarm.com (ALRM):
- Alarm.com is like the Intel Inside for smart security and property management systems, providing the core technology and platform that powers many professional service offerings.
- Alarm.com is like the Android or iOS for smart home and business security ecosystems, enabling a wide range of devices and services to work together under one platform.
- Alarm.com is like Amazon Web Services (AWS) for smart property management, providing the foundational cloud platform that powers various security and automation services for homes and businesses.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Interactive Security Solutions: Cloud-based services for monitoring and controlling security systems and connected devices like locks, sensors, and garage doors for smart properties.
- Video Monitoring Solutions: Advanced video surveillance platforms offering live streaming, video analytics, video doorbell integration, and continuous high-definition recording for homes and businesses.
- Intelligent Automation & Energy Management: Smart property automation features, including thermostat scheduling, energy usage monitoring, water safety, and geo-services to enhance comfort and efficiency.
- Commercial Property Management Solutions: Specialized applications of their security, video, and automation platforms tailored for businesses, providing features such as multi-site management and access control.
- Service Provider Solutions: A comprehensive suite of tools and programs, including an online portal, sales support, marketing assistance, and training services for their network of professional service providers.
- Wellness Solutions: Offerings designed to enhance the safety, independence, and overall well-being of occupants within smart homes and commercial spaces.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Alarm.com (ALRM) primarily sells its cloud-based solutions and services to other companies, specifically a network of service providers.
These service providers act as Alarm.com's direct customers, leveraging Alarm.com's platform to offer interactive security, video monitoring, intelligent automation, energy management, and commercial solutions to their own end-users, which include residential and commercial subscribers.
Alarm.com provides its service provider customers with a permission-based online portal that offers account management, sales, marketing, training, and support tools, in addition to home builder programs and wellness solutions.
The provided company description does not list the specific names of these service provider customer companies.
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- Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) for Amazon Web Services
- Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) for Google Cloud
- Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) for Microsoft Azure
- Oracle Corporation (ORCL) for Oracle Cloud Infrastructure
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Stephen Trundle, Chief Executive Officer
Stephen Trundle has served as the Chief Executive Officer of Alarm.com since May 2003 and as a member of its Board since October 2003. He joined Alarm.com in 2003, after serving in various positions with MicroStrategy Incorporated, including Vice President of Technology and Chief Technology Officer. Mr. Trundle began his career with Bath Iron Works. Alarm.com was founded in 2000 as a spin-off from MicroStrategy. In February 2009, Alarm.com was acquired by venture capital firm ABS Capital Partners for $27.7 million, and ABS Capital Partners, along with Technology Crossover Ventures, remained the majority shareholders after Alarm.com's IPO in June 2015. He led Alarm.com through its IPO in June 2015. Mr. Trundle holds an A.B. in Engineering and an A.B. in Government from Dartmouth College. He is also named as an inventor or co-inventor in over 25 awarded or pending U.S. patents.
Kevin Bradley, Chief Financial Officer
Kevin Bradley was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Alarm.com in March 2025. He joined the company in May 2009 and has held various accounting and finance roles during his tenure. Prior to his appointment as CFO, he served as Director of Financial Planning from December 2013 through May 2017 and then as Vice President of Financial Planning and Analysis from May 2017 through March 2025. In his role as VP of FPA, he actively participated in corporate strategy development and operational decision-making. Before joining Alarm.com, Mr. Bradley worked at Morgan Stanley from 2007 to 2008. Alarm.com was acquired by venture capital firm ABS Capital Partners in February 2009, the same year Mr. Bradley joined the company. He holds a Bachelor of Business Administration from the University of Notre Dame and a Master of Science in Finance from American University.
Daniel Kerzner, President, Platforms Business
Daniel Kerzner joined Alarm.com in December 2013 and is currently the President, Platforms Business. He previously served as Chief Product Officer. Prior to Alarm.com, Mr. Kerzner served as the Chief Executive Officer of Emotive Communications Inc., a software company, from April 2013 to December 2013, which was later acquired by Appconomy. He also held positions at MicroStrategy Incorporated, including Senior Vice President and General Manager of Mobile, and Vice President of Platform and Emerging Technologies. Additionally, he was a Regional Director for PJM Interconnection at EnerNOC, Inc. Mr. Kerzner holds a B.A. in Computer Engineering from Dartmouth College and an M.B.A. from The Wharton School.
Jeffrey Bedell, President, Ventures Business and Corporate Strategy
Jeffrey Bedell joined Alarm.com in April 2013 and serves as the President, Ventures Business and Corporate Strategy. He previously held the role of Chief Strategy and Innovation Officer. Before joining Alarm.com, Mr. Bedell served as Chief Technology Officer at MicroStrategy Incorporated from 2001 to October 2012, and as Executive Vice President of Technology from 2007 to March 2013. Mr. Bedell holds a B.A. in Religion from Dartmouth College.
Daniel Ramos, Chief Legal and Compliance Officer and Senior Vice President, Corporate Operations
Daniel Ramos joined Alarm.com in 2007 and serves as the Chief Legal and Compliance Officer and Senior Vice President of Corporate Operations. Prior to Alarm.com, Mr. Ramos served as Principal Deputy General Counsel for the U.S. Air Force, Department of Defense. He was also the Vice President of Legal and Business Planning at The Away Network, a business unit of Orbitz Worldwide, Inc. Earlier in his career, he was a senior transactional attorney with Shaw Pittman LLP. Mr. Ramos holds an A.B. in Government from Harvard University and a J.D. from Stanford Law School.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Alarm.com (ALRM) are primarily rooted in the highly dynamic and competitive nature of the smart home and commercial security markets, the rapid pace of technological advancements, and the critical importance of data security and privacy.
1. Intense Competition and Market Saturation
Alarm.com operates in a fiercely competitive and rapidly evolving market for smart home and business security solutions. The company faces significant competition from established security providers like ADT Inc. and Honeywell International Inc., which leverage strong brand recognition and extensive dealer networks. Additionally, large technology companies such as Amazon (Ring) and Google (Nest) are prominent competitors, offering integrated smart home ecosystems and DIY solutions that often come at competitive price points. This intense competition can lead to pricing pressure, particularly in the residential market where DIY options are gaining traction, potentially limiting Alarm.com's revenue expansion and squeezing profitability. Maintaining market share against these diverse players requires continuous investment and strategic adjustments.
2. Rapid Technological Change and Innovation
The smart property sector is characterized by continuous and rapid technological advancements, especially in areas like the Internet of Things (IoT), artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), and video analytics. Alarm.com must constantly invest in research and development to update its cloud-based platform, integrate new third-party devices, and offer cutting-edge features to remain relevant. Failure to keep pace with these technological changes or to adapt to evolving consumer preferences could render its offerings less attractive, potentially leading to subscriber churn or difficulty in attracting new customers. The company's ability to capitalize on new market opportunities, such as AI-driven analytics for predictive monitoring, is crucial for offsetting challenges and sustaining growth.
3. Data Security Breaches and Privacy Concerns
As a provider of cloud-based security and smart home solutions, Alarm.com collects and processes a substantial amount of sensitive personal and property data, including video feeds, access logs, and personal schedules. This makes the company a prime target for cyberattacks and data breaches. A successful breach could result in significant financial losses, regulatory penalties, and severe reputational damage, eroding customer trust and directly impacting subscriber retention and future growth. Furthermore, the evolving landscape of state-level privacy and data security laws in various U.S. states (e.g., California) and other consumer protection regulations place additional restrictions on how Alarm.com and its service provider partners use and disclose subscribers' personal information, adding to compliance risks.
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The clear emerging threat to Alarm.com comes from the increasing expansion and integration of smart home security and automation ecosystems offered directly by major technology companies such as Amazon (e.g., Ring, Alexa) and Google (e.g., Nest, Google Home). These tech giants are leveraging their significant resources, extensive brand recognition, and deep existing consumer relationships to develop comprehensive, often consumer-installed, and sometimes professionally monitored solutions. This trend threatens Alarm.com's business model, which relies on a network of service providers, by offering consumers potentially lower-cost, more directly integrated, and highly user-friendly alternatives that could bypass the traditional security dealer channel and erode the perceived value of Alarm.com's platform.
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Alarm.com (ALRM) operates within several significant addressable markets related to smart residential and commercial properties.
Commercial Security Solutions
- Alarm.com's management estimates the total addressable market for commercial security solutions in North America to be approximately 4.5 to 5 million sites.
- The global commercial security system market size was estimated at USD 202.23 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 540.47 billion by 2033, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.8% from 2025 to 2033.
- North America accounted for the largest revenue share of 37.3% in the global commercial security system market in 2024.
Smart Home Security Solutions (Residential)
- The global smart home security market size was valued at USD 40.38 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 163.15 billion by 2035, expanding at a CAGR of 14.99% from 2025 to 2035.
- North America dominated the global smart home security market, holding more than a 37% share in 2025.
- The U.S. smart home security market alone accounted for over 80% of the North American market share in 2024.
IoT in Smart Buildings / Smart Building Market (Broader, including Commercial)
- The global smart building market size was estimated at USD 141.79 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 554.02 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 18.9% from 2026 to 2033.
- North America dominated the global smart building market with a revenue share of over 35% in 2025.
- Within commercial smart buildings, security and access control systems are identified as the fastest-growing segment, projected to account for an estimated 646 million devices globally by 2028.
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Share Repurchases
- Alarm.com authorized a share repurchase program in February 2023 to buy back up to $100 million of its common stock, valid until February 23, 2025.
- During the year ended December 31, 2023, the company repurchased 487,918 shares for $27.3 million at an average price of $55.95 per share.
- For the trailing twelve months ended December 2025, Alarm.com Holdings's Repurchase of Stock was $-42 million.
Share Issuance
- As of November 2025, Alarm.com had 49.91 million shares outstanding, which increased by 8.66% in one year.
- The number of outstanding shares was 49,896,117 at the end of 2025.
Outbound Investments
- Alarm.com has made a total of 8 acquisitions, with activity peaking in 2023 (2 acquisitions) and 2025 (1 acquisition).
- In February 2025, the company acquired chekt.com, a U.S.-based provider of video security systems integrating AI with alarm monitoring.
- Other recent acquisitions within the last few years include EBS (Poland) in May 2023, Vintra in April 2023, and Noonlight in October 2022.
- Purchases of investments by Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. were USD -205.9 million in 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures were approximately $15.74 million in the last 12 months as of November 2025.
- Alarm.com projects capital expenditures to be $24 million for 2025, increasing to $31 million by 2029, consistently representing about 2% of its revenue.
- Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.'s Capital Expenditure was USD -16.3 million in 2025.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Alarm.com Earnings Notes | 12/27/2025 | |
| Can Alarm.com Stock Hold Up When Markets Turn? | 10/17/2025 | |
| Alarm.com vs Alphabet: Which Is A Better Investment? | 08/18/2025 | |
| Alarm.com vs Clear Secure: Which Is A Better Investment? | 08/18/2025 | |
| How Does Alarm.com Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | 08/13/2025 | |
| Better Bet Than ALRM Stock: Pay Less Than Alarm.com To Get More From MU, VST | 08/12/2025 | |
| Better Bet Than ALRM Stock: Pay Less Than Alarm.com To Get More From IDCC, MU | 08/12/2025 | |
| ALRM Dip Buy Analysis | 07/10/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 104.76 |
| Mkt Cap | 49.1 |
| Rev LTM | 16,304 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,450 |
| FCF LTM | 900 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,687 |
| CFO LTM | 2,095 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,215 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 15.7% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 22.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 13.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 19.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 9.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 49.1 |
| P/S | 3.2 |
| P/Op Inc | 23.2 |
| P/EBIT | 15.4 |
| P/E | 19.7 |
| P/CFO | 16.3 |
| Total Yield | 4.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.8% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 9.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 4.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 10.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 14.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 79.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -0.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -2.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -9.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 6.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alarm.com | 920 | 871 | 824 | 796 | 712 |
| Other | 96 | 73 | 61 | 51 | 43 |
| Intersegment Other | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -2 |
| Intersegment Alarm.com | -3 | -3 | -3 | -4 | -3 |
| Total | 1,011 | 940 | 882 | 843 | 749 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alarm.com | 142 | 122 | 75 | 67 | 71 |
| Intersegment Other | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0 |
| Intersegment Alarm.com | -0 | -0 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| Other | -8 | -13 | -12 | -16 | -10 |
| Total | 134 | 109 | 67 | 51 | 62 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alarm.com | 2,181 | 2,081 | 1,478 | 1,366 | 1,264 |
| Other | 190 | 85 | 74 | 54 | 37 |
| Intersegment Other | -0 | -0 | -0 | 0 | -0 |
| Intersegment Alarm.com | -235 | -128 | -112 | -91 | -70 |
| Total | 2,137 | 2,038 | 1,440 | 1,329 | 1,232 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $57.53 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 2.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/26/2015 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -2.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $49.40 | $48.34 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | up |
| Distance from DMA | 16.4% | 19.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 28.2% | 31.6% |
| Downside Capture | -85.87 | 67.19 |
| Upside Capture | 13.50 | 57.90 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -11.3% | 24.9% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.73 | -0.43 | -0.44 | 0.34 | 0.64 | 0.88 |
| Up Beta | -2.91 | -1.42 | -1.25 | 0.17 | 0.68 | 0.82 |
| Down Beta | -0.02 | 0.35 | 0.25 | 0.34 | 0.54 | 0.79 |
| Up Capture | 91% | 21% | 9% | 44% | 48% | 65% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 14 | 25 | 39 | 68 | 122 | 364 |
| Down Capture | -168% | -118% | -119% | 35% | 81% | 102% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 17 | 23 | 57 | 128 | 386 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ALRM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALRM | 3.2% | 31.6% | 0.12 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 43.7% | 25.9% | 1.36 | 11.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 23.3% | 12.8% | 1.36 | 25.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 28.5% | 28.4% | 0.87 | -5.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 32.9% | 19.8% | 1.32 | -21.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.2% | 13.8% | 0.72 | 33.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -43.7% | 43.0% | -1.21 | 18.0% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ALRM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALRM | -6.9% | 34.3% | -0.15 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 20.5% | 25.8% | 0.71 | 44.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.5% | 17.2% | 0.61 | 51.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.6% | 18.6% | 0.81 | 1.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 19.6% | 0.31 | 5.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.3% | 18.9% | 0.02 | 45.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 9.0% | 53.0% | 0.36 | 27.1% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ALRM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALRM | 7.4% | 37.4% | 0.30 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 24.6% | 24.9% | 0.89 | 45.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 47.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.1% | 16.2% | 0.61 | 2.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.4% | 18.0% | 0.33 | 10.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 36.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.4% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 16.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 8/9/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/6/2026 | 2.2% | ||
| 5/7/2026 | 1.3% | -9.9% | -4.5% |
| 2/19/2026 | 0.9% | 7.7% | -1.8% |
| 11/6/2025 | 5.8% | 7.0% | 11.4% |
| 8/7/2025 | 0.1% | 4.4% | 4.9% |
| 5/8/2025 | 1.3% | 6.1% | 6.9% |
| 2/20/2025 | -1.7% | -4.0% | -6.6% |
| 11/7/2024 | 11.1% | 4.9% | 19.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 13 | 10 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 4.2% | 6.1% | 9.5% |
| Median Negative | -2.9% | -4.2% | -5.4% |
| Max Positive | 24.1% | 16.8% | 22.1% |
| Max Negative | -14.4% | -9.9% | -15.5% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/6/2026 | 2.2% | ||
| 5/7/2026 | 1.3% | -9.9% | -4.5% |
| 2/19/2026 | 0.9% | 7.7% | -1.8% |
| 11/6/2025 | 5.8% | 7.0% | 11.4% |
| 8/7/2025 | 0.1% | 4.4% | 4.9% |
| 5/8/2025 | 1.3% | 6.1% | 6.9% |
| 2/20/2025 | -1.7% | -4.0% | -6.6% |
| 11/7/2024 | 11.1% | 4.9% | 19.5% |
| 8/8/2024 | -6.8% | -8.0% | -15.5% |
| 5/9/2024 | -1.3% | 1.3% | -9.0% |
| 2/22/2024 | 2.7% | 8.2% | 4.3% |
| 11/9/2023 | 9.9% | 12.9% | 13.6% |
| 8/9/2023 | 24.1% | 16.8% | 19.1% |
| 5/10/2023 | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.2% |
| 2/23/2023 | -2.6% | -4.2% | -5.4% |
| 11/8/2022 | -14.4% | -3.4% | -11.5% |
| 8/9/2022 | 5.3% | 6.0% | -1.8% |
| 5/5/2022 | -5.2% | -4.8% | 7.6% |
| 2/24/2022 | -5.5% | -2.4% | -5.5% |
| 11/4/2021 | 4.2% | -1.1% | -7.5% |
| 8/5/2021 | 5.7% | 0.4% | -0.3% |
| 5/4/2021 | -1.9% | -1.9% | -8.8% |
| 2/25/2021 | -1.0% | -4.5% | -1.8% |
| 11/5/2020 | 12.3% | 8.3% | 22.1% |
| 8/5/2020 | -3.2% | -7.6% | -3.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 13 | 10 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 4.2% | 6.1% | 9.5% |
| Median Negative | -2.9% | -4.2% | -5.4% |
| Max Positive | 24.1% | 16.8% | 22.1% |
| Max Negative | -14.4% | -9.9% | -15.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/09/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/09/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/24/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/25/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/07/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/26/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/05/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 8/7/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 SaaS and license revenue | 189.80 Mil | 189.90 Mil | 190.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 SaaS and license revenue | 754.00 Mil | 754.20 Mil | 754.40 Mil | 0.6% | Raised | Guidance: 750.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Total revenue | 1.08 Bil | 1.08 Bil | 1.09 Bil | 1.8% | Raised | Guidance: 1.06 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Hardware and other revenue | 325.00 Mil | 330.00 Mil | 335.00 Mil | 4.8% | Raised | Guidance: 315.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA | 221.00 Mil | 222.00 Mil | 223.00 Mil | 3.0% | Raised | Guidance: 215.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP adjusted net income attributable to common stockholders | 156.00 Mil | 156.50 Mil | 157.00 Mil | 3.1% | Raised | Guidance: 151.75 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP adjusted net income attributable to common stockholders per diluted share | 2.92 | 2.93 | 2.94 | 4.1% | Raised | Guidance: 2.81 for 2026 | |
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/7/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 SaaS and license revenue | 185.50 Mil | 185.60 Mil | 185.70 Mil | ||||
| 2026 SaaS and license revenue | 749.50 Mil | 750.00 Mil | 750.50 Mil | 0.8% | Raised | Guidance: 744.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Total revenue | 1.06 Bil | 1.06 Bil | 1.07 Bil | 0.3% | Raised | Guidance: 1.06 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Hardware and other revenue | 310.00 Mil | 315.00 Mil | 320.00 Mil | -0.8% | Lowered | Guidance: 317.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA | 215.00 Mil | 215.50 Mil | 216.00 Mil | 0.7% | Raised | Guidance: 214.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP adjusted net income | 151.50 Mil | 151.75 Mil | 152.00 Mil | 0.7% | Raised | Guidance: 150.75 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP adjusted net income per diluted share | 2.81 | 2.81 | 2.82 | 1.1% | Raised | Guidance: 2.79 for 2026 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/19/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 SaaS and license revenue | 175.80 Mil | 175.90 Mil | 176.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 SaaS and license revenue | 743.00 Mil | 744.00 Mil | 745.00 Mil | 8.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 685.30 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Total revenue | 1.06 Bil | 1.06 Bil | 1.06 Bil | 6.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.00 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Hardware and other revenue | 315.00 Mil | 317.50 Mil | 320.00 Mil | 0.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 315.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA | 213.00 Mil | 214.00 Mil | 215.00 Mil | 7.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 199.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP adjusted net income | 150.50 Mil | 150.75 Mil | 151.00 Mil | 7.3% | Higher New | Guidance: 140.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP adjusted net income per diluted share | 2.78 | 2.79 | 2.79 | 10.1% | Higher New | Guidance: 2.53 for 2025 | |
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/6/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 SaaS and license revenue | 176.00 Mil | 176.10 Mil | 176.20 Mil | 2.7% | Higher New | Actual: 171.50 Mil for Q3 2025 | |
| 2025 SaaS and license revenue | 685.20 Mil | 685.30 Mil | 685.40 Mil | 0.6% | Raised | Guidance: 681.20 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Revenue | 1.00 Bil | 0.7% | Raised | Guidance: 993.20 Mil for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Hardware and other revenue | 315.00 Mil | 315.50 Mil | 316.00 Mil | 1.1% | Raised | Guidance: 312.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA | 199.00 Mil | 1.7% | Raised | Guidance: 195.75 Mil for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Non-GAAP adjusted net income | 140.50 Mil | 3.1% | Raised | Guidance: 136.25 Mil for 2025 | |||
| 2025 EPS | 2.53 | 5.4% | Raised | Guidance: 2.4 for 2025 | |||
Insider Activity
Updated 7/2/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bradley, Kevin Christopher | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 7022026 | 48.46 | 724 | 35,085 | 4,052,322 | Form |
| 2 | Ramos, Daniel | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 46.50 | 2,000 | 93,000 | 2,469,104 | Form |
| 3 | Ramos, Daniel | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 46.23 | 8,000 | 369,840 | 2,547,227 | Form |
| 4 | Bradley, Kevin Christopher | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 46.15 | 2,200 | 101,530 | 3,892,568 | Form |
| 5 | Trundle, Stephen | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 5282026 | 43.78 | 6,073 | 265,876 | 14,221,583 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bradley, Kevin Christopher | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 7022026 | 48.46 | 724 | 35,085 | 4,052,322 | Form |
| 2 | Ramos, Daniel | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 46.50 | 2,000 | 93,000 | 2,469,104 | Form |
| 3 | Ramos, Daniel | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 46.23 | 8,000 | 369,840 | 2,547,227 | Form |
| 4 | Bradley, Kevin Christopher | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 46.15 | 2,200 | 101,530 | 3,892,568 | Form |
| 5 | Trundle, Stephen | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 5282026 | 43.78 | 6,073 | 265,876 | 14,221,583 | Form |
| 6 | Ramos, Daniel | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 5282026 | 43.78 | 2,532 | 110,851 | 2,762,474 | Form |
| 7 | Kerzner, Daniel | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 5282026 | 43.78 | 3,944 | 172,668 | 4,427,953 | Form |
| 8 | Kerzner, Daniel | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 5202026 | 43.56 | 1,915 | 83,417 | 4,577,503 | Form |
| 9 | Ramos, Daniel | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 5202026 | 43.56 | 1,561 | 67,997 | 2,858,886 | Form |
| 10 | Trundle, Stephen | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 5202026 | 43.56 | 2,944 | 128,241 | 14,414,657 | Form |
| 11 | Bradley, Kevin Christopher | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 3192026 | 45.97 | 1,510 | 69,415 | 2,369,570 | Form |
| 12 | Nevin, Darius G | Direct | Sell | 3192026 | 46.17 | 36,000 | 1,662,120 | 1,125,394 | Form | |
| 13 | Bedell, Jeffrey A | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 12182025 | 51.82 | 22,727 | 1,177,713 | 26,210,815 | Form |
| 14 | Bedell, Jeffrey A | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 12162025 | 52.51 | 2,273 | 119,355 | 26,559,821 | Form |
| 15 | Evans, Stephen C | Direct | Sell | 12162025 | 52.27 | 1,154 | 60,320 | 320,049 | Form | |
| 16 | Trundle, Stephen | Chief Executive Officer | LLC | Buy | 11202025 | 48.07 | 10,000 | 480,660 | 63,223,277 | Form |
| 17 | Trundle, Stephen | Chief Executive Officer | LLC | Buy | 11202025 | 48.53 | 12,469 | 605,121 | 63,348,296 | Form |
| 18 | Trundle, Stephen | Chief Executive Officer | LLC | Buy | 11202025 | 48.57 | 3,531 | 171,501 | 62,794,890 | Form |
| 19 | Kerzner, Daniel | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 11142025 | 50.33 | 10,000 | 503,300 | 2,617,160 | Form |
| 20 | Kerzner, Daniel | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 11142025 | 50.29 | 20,004 | 1,006,001 | 2,615,080 | Form |
| 21 | Bradley, Kevin Christopher | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 7022025 | 56.75 | 754 | 42,790 | 3,010,928 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Aug 10, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
ALRM Trade Sentinel
High Conviction
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Alarm.com is successfully pivoting its growth engine. New initiatives in commercial security and energy management are growing over 30% and now comprise 35% of revenue, driving two consecutive quarters of accelerating SaaS growth. Management has raised full-year 2026 guidance three times, demonstrating strong execution against this strategic shift.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
B2B2C Recurring SaaS(Number of Subscribers) x (SaaS Revenue per Subscriber) Increasing SaaS revenue per subscriber (ARPU) by upselling higher-value services like video analytics, remote video monitoring, and commercial-grade solutions.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Yes. Commercial and EnergyHub initiatives are growing over 30%, now representing 35% of revenue and driving accelerating SaaS growth for the consolidated company.
- SaaS revenue growth accelerated to 11.1% YoY in Q2 2026.
- Growth initiatives (Commercial, EnergyHub) grew over 30% YoY.
- These initiatives now represent about 35% of total revenue.
- Full-year 2026 SaaS revenue guidance was raised by 0.6%.
- SaaS and license revenue renewal rate remains high at 95%.
PRIMARY RISK
The transition of subscribers from its largest partner, ADT (15-20% of revenue), creates a persistent headwind. A recent 32.3% YoY spike in accounts receivable also raises questions about the quality of recent growth.
- Largest partner ADT represents 15-20% of total revenue.
- Top 10 partners accounted for 45% of revenue in 2025.
- Accounts receivable grew 32.3% YoY vs. 9.2% revenue growth.
- The 'Other' segment, containing growth drivers, had an operating loss of $8M in 2025.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| SaaS and License Revenue Growth | 11.1% year-over-year for Q2 2026 - Accelerating | The year-over-year growth rate has increased for two consecutive quarters, indicating a clear acceleration in the core recurring revenue stream. This follows a period of single-digit growth in late 2025. |
| Growth Initiatives Performance (Commercial, EnergyHub, International) | Grew over 30% year-over-year in Q2 2026 - Accelerating | Management highlights these initiatives, particularly EnergyHub and Commercial, as key drivers of outperformance. Their accelerating growth and increasing share of total revenue are fueling the company's overall acceleration. |
| SaaS and license revenue renewal rate | 95% (Year Ended December 31, 2025) | Measures the company's ability to retain and grow its recurring SaaS revenue and serves as an indicator of the lifetime value of its subscriber base. |
| International Video Attachment Rate | 33% (2025) | The rate at which international partners are adopting the company's video solutions, a key driver of ARPU expansion. |
New Growth Acceleration vs. Core Business Headwinds
BULL VIEW
The 30%+ growth in the Commercial and EnergyHub segments, now 35% of revenue, is a structural inflection that will continue to drive overall acceleration and multiple guidance raises.
CORE TENSION
Can the >30% growth in new segments sustainably overcome the modeled headwind from ADT, which represents 15-20% of revenue?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The bull case is winning. SaaS growth has accelerated for two straight quarters to 11.1% YoY, and management has raised full-year 2026 guidance three times, despite the ADT headwind.
BEAR VIEW
The known headwind from ADT's transition and a recent spike in accounts receivable suggest the core is weakening and new growth may not be high-quality or sustainable enough to matter.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
10/27/2026 | Alphabet Earnings Report Watch: Peer Alphabet (GOOGL) is scheduled to report earnings. |
11/2/2026 | End Market Softness Watch: Commentary from peers ADT and Resideo on residential and dealer channel health in their upcoming earnings reports. |
11/3/2026 | Resideo Technologies Earnings Report Watch: Peer Resideo Technologies (REZI) is scheduled to report earnings. |
11/4/2026 | ADT Transition Headwind Watch: Any revision to guidance or commentary on the ADT relationship and its impact on SaaS growth. |
No set date | Hardware Demand Elasticity Watch: Hardware revenue guidance, hardware gross margin performance, and commentary on demand trends following price increases. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-08-06 | Second Quarter Earnings Beat Details: The company reported Q2 non-GAAP EPS of $0.77, beating estimates. Full-year 2026 guidance was raised for total revenue, hardware revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EPS. | +1.5% $56.66 -> $57.53 |
2026-07-16 | Expansion into Commercial Fire Details: The company launched its Fire Communicator, expanding its Alarm.com for Business offering into the commercial fire category. | +1.8% $52.25 -> $53.20 |
2026-06-18 | New Premium Indoor Camera Details: The company introduced the ADC-V530, a premium indoor Wi-Fi camera featuring a physical privacy shutter and 4MP HDR video at a lower cost than the previous generation. | -3.4% $45.23 -> $43.70 |
2026-05-07 | First Quarter Earnings Beat Details: The company reported Q1 non-GAAP EPS of $0.65, beating estimates. The stock reacted positively, up 5.0% over two days versus 1.0% for the S&P 500. | +4.8% $45.44 -> $47.60 |
2026-03-31 | AI Video Portfolio Expansion Details: The company announced updates to its video security suite, introducing new AI-driven software capabilities and expanded camera hardware options. | +2.3% $42.34 -> $43.30 |
2026-02-20 | Analyst Downgrade and New Low Details: Following a price target cut, the company's share price reached a new 52-week low, trading as low as $44.71. | -2.1% $45.20 -> $44.24 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: ALRM trades at roughly 32% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 13% for the S&P 500 (2.5x the market), around the 34th percentile of its own trailing year. A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
ADT - ADT
Incumbent Scale PlayADT offers massive scale with revenue 4.9 times larger than Alarm.com and established brand recognition in the professionally installed security market. It provides direct exposure to the end-customer relationship.
REZI - Resideo Technologies Inc.
Alternative Platform ProviderResideo Technologies is a key competitor providing other technology platforms for connected properties with interactive security, offering a different approach and partner network within the same industry.
A capital-efficient B2B2C SaaS platform that provides the 'picks and shovels' for the professional smart-property installation channel, with sticky, device-linked recurring revenue.
Alarm.com provides the cloud software that powers thousands of professional security and smart-home installers. Its revenue is highly recurring, tied to physical hardware installations that have long service lives. The core business is a stable, cash-generative foundation, while growth is being driven by upselling higher-value services like video analytics and expanding into the large commercial and utility-focused energy management markets.
Sustained high SaaS renewal rates, accelerating growth in the EnergyHub and Commercial businesses, and continued ARPU expansion from video and AI-enabled services.
A significant decline in the SaaS renewal rate, the loss of a major service provider partner, or evidence that DIY solutions are materially eroding the professional installer channel.
Quarter-to-quarter fluctuations in hardware revenue, which can be affected by supply chain issues or product launch timing.
Repricing Catalyst
The market's increasing recognition of the durability of the core SaaS model and the accelerating growth from the EnergyHub and commercial initiatives, which are becoming a more significant part of the overall business.
Alarm.com
$936M TTM (90% of Total) · 16% MarginWhat It Is
This segment sells its cloud-based and software platforms for connected properties and related solutions to a global network of trusted service provider partners who distribute the solutions to residential and commercial customers.
Who Pays & How
Service provider partners pay monthly fees per subscriber. They use the platform to deliver a wide range of integrated security and automation services to their customers and to manage their own business operations efficiently.
Competition
Other
$106M TTM (10% of Total) · -10% MarginWhat It Is
This segment focuses on researching, developing, and offering residential and commercial automation solutions and energy management products and services (via its EnergyHub subsidiary) in adjacent markets.
Who Pays & How
Utilities pay for demand response and virtual power plant (VPP) services to manage grid stability. Other customers in adjacent markets pay for automation solutions.
Competition
Alarm.com — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Information Technology Resources |
| TechCrunch |
| Wired |
| CIO |
| MIT Technology Review |
| Gartner Insights |
| Ars Technica |
| Application Software Resources |
| Capterra |
| Software Advice |
| InfoWorld |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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