Mattel (MAT)
Market Price (10/7/2026): $16.385 | Market Cap: $4.7 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Leisure Products
Mattel (MAT)
Market Price (10/7/2026): $16.385Market Cap: $4.7 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Leisure Products
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.5%, FCF Yield is 9.4% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.5 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 44% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Experiential Retail, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -54%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -110% | Key risksMAT key risks include [1] an outsized dependence on holiday season performance and forecasting errors, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.5%, FCF Yield is 9.4% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.5 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 44% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Experiential Retail, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -54%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -110% |
| Key risksMAT key risks include [1] an outsized dependence on holiday season performance and forecasting errors, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Updated on 10/5/2026
Mattel (MAT) stock has gained about 15% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mattel reported stronger-than-expected revenue for its fiscal Q2 2026, which ended June 30, 2026, and reaffirmed its full-year guidance. The company announced its second-quarter results on August 4, 2026, with net sales reaching $1.13 billion, surpassing Wall Street's consensus estimate of $1.10 billion. This 10% year-over-year revenue growth was attributed to robust demand in North America and strong performance across key brands such as Hot Wheels, action figures, and games. Despite adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.01 missing the anticipated $0.05, the company maintained its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS outlook between $1.27 and $1.39, which reassured investors about future prospects.
2. Speculation of a potential takeover significantly boosted the stock price. Mattel's stock surged dramatically in early October 2026 due to reports of takeover interest from Authentic Brands Group. On October 1, 2026, the stock closed at $15.04, marking an 18.80% increase from the previous day's close. Reports suggested a potential offer exceeding $20 per share, representing approximately a 58% premium over the stock's closing price of $12.66 on September 29, 2026. This speculation was further fueled by a major shareholder, Ariel Investments, which holds a 5.4% stake and urged Mattel to explore strategic alternatives, including a possible sale, citing the company's undervaluation as a public entity.
Show more
Mattel (MAT) stock has gained about 15% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mattel reported stronger-than-expected revenue for its fiscal Q2 2026, which ended June 30, 2026, and reaffirmed its full-year guidance. The company announced its second-quarter results on August 4, 2026, with net sales reaching $1.13 billion, surpassing Wall Street's consensus estimate of $1.10 billion. This 10% year-over-year revenue growth was attributed to robust demand in North America and strong performance across key brands such as Hot Wheels, action figures, and games. Despite adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.01 missing the anticipated $0.05, the company maintained its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS outlook between $1.27 and $1.39, which reassured investors about future prospects.
2. Speculation of a potential takeover significantly boosted the stock price. Mattel's stock surged dramatically in early October 2026 due to reports of takeover interest from Authentic Brands Group. On October 1, 2026, the stock closed at $15.04, marking an 18.80% increase from the previous day's close. Reports suggested a potential offer exceeding $20 per share, representing approximately a 58% premium over the stock's closing price of $12.66 on September 29, 2026. This speculation was further fueled by a major shareholder, Ariel Investments, which holds a 5.4% stake and urged Mattel to explore strategic alternatives, including a possible sale, citing the company's undervaluation as a public entity.
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Updated on 10/5/2026
Mattel (MAT) stock has gained about 15% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mattel reported stronger-than-expected revenue for its fiscal Q2 2026, which ended June 30, 2026, and reaffirmed its full-year guidance. The company announced its second-quarter results on August 4, 2026, with net sales reaching $1.13 billion, surpassing Wall Street's consensus estimate of $1.10 billion. This 10% year-over-year revenue growth was attributed to robust demand in North America and strong performance across key brands such as Hot Wheels, action figures, and games. Despite adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.01 missing the anticipated $0.05, the company maintained its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS outlook between $1.27 and $1.39, which reassured investors about future prospects.
2. Speculation of a potential takeover significantly boosted the stock price. Mattel's stock surged dramatically in early October 2026 due to reports of takeover interest from Authentic Brands Group. On October 1, 2026, the stock closed at $15.04, marking an 18.80% increase from the previous day's close. Reports suggested a potential offer exceeding $20 per share, representing approximately a 58% premium over the stock's closing price of $12.66 on September 29, 2026. This speculation was further fueled by a major shareholder, Ariel Investments, which holds a 5.4% stake and urged Mattel to explore strategic alternatives, including a possible sale, citing the company's undervaluation as a public entity.
3. A leadership transition at the CEO level, coupled with positive analyst sentiment, provided additional support. On September 30, 2026, Mattel announced that CEO Ynon Kreiz would step down, with long-time board member Roger Lynch appointed as the new Chairman and CEO, effective October 2, 2026. Although the initial announcement led to a slight dip in premarket trading due to uncertainty, analysts quickly expressed confidence in the transition. UBS, for instance, reiterated a "Buy" rating and a $28.00 price target on October 1, 2026, noting that Lynch had been closely involved with Mattel's strategy since 2018. This analyst confidence in the new leadership and strategic direction contributed to the stock's positive trend following the initial market reaction.
Show less
Mattel (MAT) stock has gained about 15% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mattel reported stronger-than-expected revenue for its fiscal Q2 2026, which ended June 30, 2026, and reaffirmed its full-year guidance. The company announced its second-quarter results on August 4, 2026, with net sales reaching $1.13 billion, surpassing Wall Street's consensus estimate of $1.10 billion. This 10% year-over-year revenue growth was attributed to robust demand in North America and strong performance across key brands such as Hot Wheels, action figures, and games. Despite adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.01 missing the anticipated $0.05, the company maintained its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS outlook between $1.27 and $1.39, which reassured investors about future prospects.
2. Speculation of a potential takeover significantly boosted the stock price. Mattel's stock surged dramatically in early October 2026 due to reports of takeover interest from Authentic Brands Group. On October 1, 2026, the stock closed at $15.04, marking an 18.80% increase from the previous day's close. Reports suggested a potential offer exceeding $20 per share, representing approximately a 58% premium over the stock's closing price of $12.66 on September 29, 2026. This speculation was further fueled by a major shareholder, Ariel Investments, which holds a 5.4% stake and urged Mattel to explore strategic alternatives, including a possible sale, citing the company's undervaluation as a public entity.
3. A leadership transition at the CEO level, coupled with positive analyst sentiment, provided additional support. On September 30, 2026, Mattel announced that CEO Ynon Kreiz would step down, with long-time board member Roger Lynch appointed as the new Chairman and CEO, effective October 2, 2026. Although the initial announcement led to a slight dip in premarket trading due to uncertainty, analysts quickly expressed confidence in the transition. UBS, for instance, reiterated a "Buy" rating and a $28.00 price target on October 1, 2026, noting that Lynch had been closely involved with Mattel's strategy since 2018. This analyst confidence in the new leadership and strategic direction contributed to the stock's positive trend following the initial market reaction.
Show less
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 14.8% change in MAT stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 30.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302026 | 10062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 13.88 | 15.93 | 14.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,383 | 5,490 | 2.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.3% | 7.8% | -16.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 8.3 | 10.8 | 30.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 297 | 289 | 3.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 14.8% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2026 to 10/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MAT | 14.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.3% | 5.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | -4.7% | 18.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 9.6% change in MAT stock from 3/31/2026 to 10/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 5.9% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 10062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 14.53 | 15.93 | 9.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,348 | 5,490 | 2.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.4% | 7.8% | 4.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.2 | 10.8 | -3.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 306 | 289 | 5.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 9.6% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 10/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MAT | 9.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.1% | 7.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | 2.7% | 18.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -5.3% change in MAT stock from 9/30/2025 to 10/6/2026 was primarily driven by a -21.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 10062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 16.83 | 15.93 | -5.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,336 | 5,490 | 2.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.9% | 7.8% | -21.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 10.3 | 10.8 | 4.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 324 | 289 | 12.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -5.3% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 10/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MAT | -5.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 17.9% | 19.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | -6.2% | 26.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -27.7% change in MAT stock from 9/30/2023 to 10/6/2026 was primarily driven by a -68.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302023 | 10062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 22.03 | 15.93 | -27.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,059 | 5,490 | 8.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.5% | 7.8% | 73.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 34.5 | 10.8 | -68.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 355 | 289 | 22.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -27.7% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2023 to 10/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MAT | -27.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 88.5% | 34.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | 42.0% | 37.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MAT Return | 24% | -17% | 6% | -6% | 12% | -19% | -8% |
| Peers Return | 66% | -3% | 21% | 22% | -20% | 55% | 196% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 14% | 107% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MAT Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 42% | 42% | 58% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 61% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 56% | 70% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MAT Max Drawdown | -19% | -40% | -25% | -21% | -34% | -43% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -32% | -53% | -45% | -36% | -55% | -28% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: HAS, JAKK, FNKO. See MAT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/6/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MAT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.2% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 262 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -14.1% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 443 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -13.2% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.3% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 57 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -14.4% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.8% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 258 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -44.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 80.6% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 214 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -38.9% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.7% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 46 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Mattel's stock fell -33.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 49.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
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| Event | MAT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.2% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 262 days | 79 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -44.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 80.6% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 214 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -38.9% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.7% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 46 days | 105 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -39.1% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.2% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 126 days | 15 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -45.3% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 82.7% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 196 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Mattel's stock fell -33.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 49.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Mattel (MAT)
Mattel, Inc. is a leading global children's entertainment company specializing in the design, manufacture, and marketing of a diverse portfolio of toys and consumer products. Operating across North America, international markets, and through its dedicated American Girl segment, Mattel serves children of all ages worldwide with a focus on delivering engaging play experiences.
The company's extensive product offerings are organized around several iconic brand families. Key categories include dolls and accessories under brands like Barbie, Monster High, and American Girl; die-cast vehicles and playsets such as Hot Wheels, Matchbox, and Mario Kart; and infant, toddler, and preschool products from Fisher-Price and Thomas & Friends. Mattel also produces action figures, building sets, and games, encompassing its own brands like Masters of the Universe and UNO, alongside popular licensed properties from partners like Disney, NBCUniversal, and Warner Bros. Beyond physical toys, the company also develops related content, gaming, and lifestyle products.
Mattel reaches its broad customer base primarily through a robust distribution network that includes direct-to-consumer sales via its websites and proprietary retail stores, as well as sales to a wide range of retailers including discount, chain, and department stores. The company also leverages wholesalers, agents, and distributors to ensure its products are available globally. Its main customers are children across various age groups, from infants and toddlers to older kids, with specific lines also targeting collectors.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Mattel:
- Like a Disney, but primarily focused on designing and producing physical toys and games for children, with brands such as Barbie, Hot Wheels, and Fisher-Price.
- The Procter & Gamble of the toy industry, owning a vast portfolio of iconic children's brands like Barbie, Hot Wheels, Fisher-Price, and UNO.
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-
Dolls & Accessories
Mattel produces a wide range of dolls, accessories, and related content/lifestyle products under popular brands like Barbie, American Girl, and Monster High. -
Die-cast Vehicles & Playsets
The company offers die-cast vehicles, tracks, and playsets for children and collectors, featuring brands such as Hot Wheels and Matchbox. -
Infant, Toddler & Preschool Products
Mattel provides toys, content, and lifestyle products designed for infants, toddlers, and preschoolers, primarily through brands like Fisher-Price and Thomas & Friends. -
Action Figures, Building Sets & Games
The company manufactures action figures, building sets, and various games, including brands like Masters of the Universe, MEGA, and UNO, often leveraging popular licensor partnerships.
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Mattel (MAT) sells its products primarily to other companies, specifically retailers and wholesalers, rather than directly to individuals as its main sales channel. While it also sells directly to consumers through its own channels, the company's major customers are the large retail chains and wholesale distributors that stock and sell its toys and consumer products worldwide. Based on the company's description and common business practices in the toy industry, its major customers include:
- Walmart Inc. (WMT)
- Target Corporation (TGT)
- Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
- Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST)
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Ynon Kreiz, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Ynon Kreiz became CEO of Mattel in April 2018 and Chairman of the board in May 2018. He is credited with leading a significant turnaround at Mattel, transforming it into a global entertainment brand. Prior to Mattel, Kreiz served as Chairman and CEO of Fox Kids Europe from 1997 to 2002, which was acquired by The Walt Disney Company as part of a $2.9 billion deal. He was also Chairman and CEO of Endemol from 2008 to 2011, and Chairman, CEO, and President of Maker Studios, Inc. from 2012 to 2016, which was acquired by The Walt Disney Company in 2014. Kreiz was also a General Partner at Benchmark Capital Europe (later Balderton Capital), a European venture capital firm focused on early-stage technology and media investments.
Paul Ruh, Chief Financial Officer
Paul Ruh will join Mattel as Chief Financial Officer, effective May 19, 2025, succeeding Anthony DiSilvestro. He is currently the CFO of Kenvue Inc., where he led its separation from Johnson & Johnson Services, Inc., which was one of the largest splits in public company history. Before Kenvue, Ruh was CFO of Johnson & Johnson Consumer Health from 2017 to 2023. He also spent 13 years at PepsiCo, Inc., holding various finance leadership roles, including CFO of Latin America, CFO of Pepsi Beverages America, and CFO of PepsiCo Foodservice. He began his career in operations finance with The Procter & Gamble Company and also worked at McKinsey & Company.
Steve Totzke, President and Chief Commercial Officer
Steve Totzke is President and Chief Commercial Officer of Mattel, a role in which he oversees the company's global commercial operations and worldwide sales in over 150 markets. He joined Mattel in 2002, and his contributions span more than 20 years across various senior general management positions, including sales, marketing, and business operations. His previous roles at Mattel include Executive Vice President, Commercial for Mattel's North America division, Senior Vice President of U.S. Sales and Shopper Marketing, and Vice President and General Manager of Operations in Australia. Totzke also served as Vice President-North American Sales at Spin Master Corp. before rejoining Mattel.
Robbie Brenner, President of Mattel Films
Robbie Brenner is the President of Mattel Films. She was one of CEO Ynon Kreiz's first hires after he became CEO, meeting him after an agent suggested they connect. Brenner, an Academy Award-nominated producer for "Dallas Buyers Club," has been instrumental in Mattel's strategy to leverage its intellectual property into entertainment experiences, including executive producing the "Barbie" movie.
Jonathan Anschell, Executive Vice President, Chief Legal Officer and Secretary
Jonathan Anschell serves as Mattel's Executive Vice President, Chief Legal Officer and Secretary. He is responsible for the company's global legal affairs, including litigation, intellectual property, corporate governance, and compliance. Anschell previously served as General Counsel for CBS Television. He has extensive experience in media and entertainment law.
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The key risks to Mattel's business are primarily driven by evolving consumer behavior, global supply chain complexities, and intense market competition.
- Shifting Consumer Tastes and Competition from Digital Entertainment: Mattel faces a significant challenge as children increasingly gravitate towards digital games and other forms of entertainment at younger ages, leading to a decline in demand for traditional physical toys. This shift in play patterns requires Mattel to constantly innovate and adapt its product offerings to remain relevant.
- Supply Chain Disruptions, Geopolitical/Macroeconomic Factors, and Seasonality: Mattel's business is highly seasonal, with a substantial portion of its sales occurring during the traditional holiday season. This seasonality makes the company particularly vulnerable to unforeseen events, such as pandemics, economic downturns, severe weather, geopolitical conflicts, and disruptions in transportation or manufacturing, especially during critical production and shipping periods. Factors like high inflation and interest rates also affect consumer buying patterns and production costs. Mattel's reliance on manufacturing facilities in various countries, including China, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Mexico, further exposes it to global supply chain vulnerabilities.
- Reliance on Key Retail Customers and Intense Competition: A significant concentration of Mattel's sales comes from a few large retail customers. Any changes in these key customers' purchasing patterns, inventory management strategies, or decisions to favor competing products could adversely affect Mattel's sales and financial performance. Furthermore, the toy industry is characterized by intense competition and relatively low barriers to entry, meaning new competitors can quickly emerge and existing ones can gain market share.
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The increasing shift of children's entertainment and play preferences from physical toys to digital platforms and experiences (e.g., video games, streaming content, interactive apps) presents a clear emerging threat to Mattel's core business model centered on physical toy products.
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Here are the addressable markets for Mattel's main products:
-
Dolls and Accessories (e.g., Barbie, American Girl):
- The global doll market was valued at approximately USD 13.05 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach over USD 15.95 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 6.9%.
- North America holds a dominant share of over 35% of the global doll market.
-
Die-Cast Vehicles, Tracks, Playsets, and Accessories (e.g., Hot Wheels, Matchbox):
- The global toy vehicles market size was valued at USD 8.42 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 12.75 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 4.3%.
- The global toy cars market, a sub-segment, was valued at USD 5.46 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 10.18 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 7.18%.
- North America accounts for 20–25% of the global toy cars market share.
-
Infant, Toddler, and Preschool Products (e.g., Fisher-Price, Thomas & Friends):
- The global baby and toddler toys market size was valued at USD 26.54 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 54.43 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 8.31%.
- North America represents the largest regional market for baby and toddler toys, accounting for approximately 30% of the global market share in 2025.
- The infant, toddler, and preschool toys supercategory generated USD 3.4 billion in U.S. retail sales in 2024.
-
Action Figures, Building Sets, and Games (e.g., Masters of the Universe, UNO, MEGA):
- The global action figure toys market was valued at USD 9 billion in 2021 and is projected to reach USD 15.3 billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 5.3%.
- North America occupied the largest market share of approximately 38.7% in the action figure market in 2021.
- In the U.S. toys market, action figures dominated with a share of 22% in 2025.
- The global traditional toys and games market (which includes building sets and games) was valued at USD 97.73 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 106.12 billion by 2031, with construction toys holding an 18.42% share in 2025.
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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Mattel (MAT) over the next 2-3 years:
- Expansion into Entertainment (Film, Television, Digital Gaming, and Location-Based Experiences): Mattel is strategically leveraging its vast intellectual property (IP) beyond traditional toys into various entertainment platforms. This includes plans to release one to two films annually through Mattel Studios, such as a Barbie animated film and a Hot Wheels live-action movie. The company is also significantly expanding its digital gaming presence, including the full acquisition of mobile gaming developer Mattel163 and the planned launch of several self-published digital games by 2027. Furthermore, Mattel is developing location-based entertainment experiences, such as Barbie cafés, Hot Wheels attractions, and UNO-themed social clubs. This entertainment transformation is expected to drive higher-margin revenue through licensing and royalties.
- Growth of Core Toy Brands and Product Innovation: Established and iconic toy brands continue to be key revenue drivers. Hot Wheels, for instance, is projected to achieve double-digit growth, while UNO and the Mattel Brick Shop initiative are expected to maintain strong momentum. Mattel is also focused on toy innovation and the launch of new product lines, such as the global rollout of Fisher-Price Wood products, to adapt to evolving consumer preferences and enhance its competitive edge.
- Broadening International Market Presence: Mattel is focused on expanding its international footprint, aiming to diversify revenue streams and capitalize on global market opportunities. Initiatives like the global rollout of Fisher-Price Wood products are part of this strategy to increase international net sales.
- Strategic Partnerships and Licensing Agreements: Strengthening global licensing partnerships with major brands like Netflix, Disney, and DC is a key driver for new product launches and expanding brand influence, further solidifying Mattel's leadership in the global entertainment and toy industry.
- Operational Efficiency and Cost Savings (indirect impact): While not a direct revenue driver, Mattel's "Optimizing for Profitable Growth" program, which targets an additional $200 million in annualized cost savings by 2026, will indirectly support revenue growth. These savings are expected to free up capital for investment in key growth initiatives such as digital gaming, digital marketing, and new product development, which are designed to generate future revenue.
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Share Repurchases
- Mattel repurchased $600 million of shares in 2025.
- The company repurchased over $1.2 billion of shares in the three years leading up to the end of 2025, representing approximately 18% of shares outstanding.
- Mattel's board authorized a new $1.5 billion share repurchase program expected to be completed by the end of 2028.
Share Issuance
- In March 2021, Mattel undertook a private offering of $1.2 billion in Senior Notes (due 2026 and 2029) to refinance existing debt.
- In November 2025, Mattel announced an underwritten public offering of $600 million in 5.000% Senior Notes due 2030, with proceeds intended to redeem outstanding Senior Notes due 2026.
Inbound Investments
- In April 2022, Mattel reportedly engaged in early-stage talks with private equity firms, including Apollo Global Management and L Catterton, regarding a potential buyout.
- Reuters reported in July 2024 that private equity firm L Catterton had made a buyout offer for Mattel; however, Mattel expressed confidence in its ability to operate as an independent company, and a source indicated no merit to the report.
Outbound Investments
- Mattel acquired full ownership of the Mattel163 mobile games studio for $159 million from its joint venture partner NetEase, a move announced around February 2026, which is expected to bolster its digital strategy.
- Management plans to allocate $110 million for strategic investments and $40 million for digital marketing in 2026, focusing on high-return areas such as digital games, direct-to-consumer capabilities, and breakthrough toy innovation.
- In May 2024, Mattel formed a multi-year strategic partnership with Outright Games to develop several console and PC games based on its brands.
Capital Expenditures
- Mattel's capital expenditures averaged $176.6 million annually from fiscal years 2021 to 2025.
- Reported capital expenditures were $151.4 million in 2021, $186.5 million in 2022, $160.3 million in 2023, $202.6 million in 2024, and $182 million in 2025.
- Capital expenditures for 2026 are projected at $190 million, primarily focused on high-return areas.
Peer Outperformance in Leisure Products
MAT has outperformed 83% of its 12 Leisure Products peers over 5Y. Among the peers that beat it is GOLF. Leisure Products ranks 12th of 23 industries in Consumer Discretionary by median 5Y return. The sector’s gains have largely come from elsewhere.
Share of Leisure Products constituents that MAT has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
67%
of 15 industry peers · -11.8% return
3Y
46%
of 13 industry peers · -22.9% return
5Y
83%
of 12 industry peers · -17.0% return
Leisure Products peers with revenue growth within 4pp of MAT's that beat it on at least 2 of 3 windows, and by at least 20pp over 5Y. Growth is matched by construction, so the gap is largely a re-rating gap. The multiple column is the context for it.
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAT | Mattel | 2.8% | 10.8x | -11.8% | -22.9% | -17.0% | — |
| GOLF | Acushnet | 4.4% | 22.5x | 3.7% | 63.1% | 81.3% | +98pp |
Price returns, excluding dividends. P/E shown for context only and not used for matching.
Median price return by industry across the Consumer Discretionary sector, ranked by 5Y. Leisure Products is MAT's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education Services | 14 | -15.0% | 76.8% | 75.3% | CVSA 234% · LINC 227% · PRDO 205% |
| Homebuilding | 18 | -8.9% | 38.0% | 54.8% | GRBK 220% · PHM 155% · TOL 154% |
| Specialty Stores | 7 | -1.4% | 40.1% | 12.7% | ASO 30% · DKS 27% · SIG 25% |
| Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines | 21 | 4.9% | 32.3% | 10.3% | RCL 236% · MAR 139% · LIND 138% |
| Home Improvement Retail | 5 | -24.3% | -2.3% | -3.6% | HVT 14% · LOW -3% · HD -4% |
| Automotive Retail | 18 | -16.4% | 0.7% | -3.7% | MUSA 215% · PAG 118% · ORLY 109% |
| Footwear | 9 | 63.8% | 55.4% | -13.8% | WEYS 200% · DECK 30% · SHOO 22% |
| Home Furnishings | 4 | -5.0% | 30.5% | -15.8% | SGI 44% · LZB -1% · MHK -30% |
| Distributors | 4 | -14.3% | -26.3% | -16.5% | ARMK 122% · GPC 17% · LKQ -50% |
| Restaurants | 36 | -9.7% | -8.1% | -16.8% | EAT 278% · CAKE 161% · BH-A 121% |
| Specialized Consumer Services | 10 | -17.5% | 15.0% | -17.3% | HRB 98% · FTDR 86% · SCI 33% |
| Leisure Products ← | 13 | -20.3% | -21.4% | -39.2% | GOLF 81% · HAS 25% · MAT -17% |
| Household Appliances | 18 | 11.3% | -1.6% | -39.9% | FLXS 217% · HBB 175% · KEQU 159% |
| Apparel Retail | 26 | 5.1% | 22.9% | -40.6% | ANF 259% · URBN 170% · TJX 127% |
| Automotive Parts & Equipment | 38 | -12.4% | -7.9% | -41.5% | MOD 1527% · GTX 272% · MLR 73% |
| Computer & Electronics Retail | 3 | -1.2% | 42.8% | -42.5% | BBY 0% · GME -42% · UPBD -63% |
| Leisure Facilities | 12 | 5.5% | -8.8% | -43.3% | JAKK 158% · LTH 127% · OSW 120% |
| Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods | 29 | -7.6% | 15.9% | -46.7% | TPR 247% · RL 247% · ELA 198% |
| Broadline Retail | 13 | -4.9% | 26.7% | -47.6% | EBAY 58% · AMZN 55% · OLLI 41% |
| Casinos & Gaming | 20 | -16.4% | -24.2% | -47.8% | MCRI 94% · RRR 20% · BYD 14% |
| Consumer Electronics | 11 | -18.6% | -17.0% | -71.1% | AXIL 3426% · GRMN 97% · SONO -46% |
| Other Specialty Retail | 17 | -37.0% | -40.5% | -77.2% | TLF 102% · BBW 83% · WINA 63% |
| Automobile Manufacturers | 8 | -78.7% | -51.4% | -77.7% | GM 52% · TSLA 44% · F 12% |
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are unfiltered by size in this render.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Mattel Stock Falls 25% In A Single Day, Should You Buy The Stock? | 02/12/2026 | |
| Would You Still Hold Mattel Stock If It Fell Another 30%? | 02/12/2026 | |
| Mattel Stock Pre-Market (-31%) : 2026 Guidance Sparks Fears of Structural Decline | 02/11/2026 | |
| Mattel Earnings Notes | 12/28/2026 | |
| Mattel vs AT&T: Which Is A Better Investment? | 08/18/2025 | |
| Mattel vs PulteGroup: Which Is A Better Investment? | 08/18/2025 | |
| How Does Mattel Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | 08/13/2025 | |
| Better Bet Than MAT Stock: Pay Less Than Mattel To Get More From UNH, OXY | 08/12/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | 06/06/2026 | |
| Buy or Sell Mattel Stock? | 02/12/2026 | |
| Mattel Stock Drop Looks Sharp, But How Deep Can It Go? | 02/12/2026 | |
| Can Mattel Survive The Covid-19 Recession? | 06/26/2020 | |
| What’s Driving The Rally In Mattel Stock? | 11/04/2019 |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 21.99 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.5 |
| Rev LTM | 2,953 |
| Op Inc LTM | 239 |
| FCF LTM | 235 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 313 |
| CFO LTM | 365 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 429 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -0.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -4.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 13.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.6% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 6.0% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 11.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.5 |
| P/S | 0.7 |
| P/Op Inc | 12.5 |
| P/EBIT | 12.0 |
| P/E | 13.6 |
| P/CFO | 6.7 |
| Total Yield | 9.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 9.6% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 11.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 20.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 23.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 39.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 29.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 9.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 17.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 5.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 21.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -64.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | 5,348 | 5,380 | 5,441 | 5,435 | |
| American Girl | 270 | ||||
| International | 2,219 | ||||
| North America | 2,968 | ||||
| Total | 5,348 | 5,380 | 5,441 | 5,435 | 5,458 |
| $ Mil | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America | 793 | 766 | 873 | 622 | 357 |
| International | 299 | 296 | 350 | 272 | 167 |
| American Girl | -6 | 0 | 5 | -14 | -59 |
| Corporate and other expense | -525 | -386 | -498 | -505 | -426 |
| Total | 562 | 676 | 730 | 375 | 39 |
| $ Mil | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| International | 841 | 663 | 548 | 588 | 434 |
| Mattel Girls & Boys Brands US | 269 | ||||
| Fisher-Price Brands US | 189 | ||||
| American Girl Brands | 62 | 61 | 60 | 48 | |
| Fisher Price | 217 | 188 | 178 | 149 | |
| Mattel Brands US | 297 | 256 | 319 | ||
| Mattel | 244 | ||||
| U.S. Girls | 65 | ||||
| Total | 1,360 | 1,238 | 1,052 | 1,133 | 892 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $15.93 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 4.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/04/1982 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -28.1% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $14.41 | $15.86 |
| DMA Trend | down | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | 10.6% | 0.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 49.5% | 43.8% |
| Downside Capture | 84.41 | 119.51 |
| Upside Capture | 154.28 | 83.44 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 6.9% | 19.8% |
MAT Betas & Captures as of 9/30/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.66 | 0.32 | 0.04 | 0.19 | 0.63 | 0.88 |
| Up Beta | -1.93 | -0.58 | -1.33 | -0.28 | 0.18 | 0.77 |
| Down Beta | 1.26 | 1.01 | -0.03 | 0.10 | 0.54 | 0.83 |
| Up Capture | 5% | -6% | 26% | 14% | 49% | 48% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 6 | 16 | 27 | 66 | 132 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 20 | 31 | 60 | 125 | 368 |
| Down Capture | 267% | 165% | 89% | 75% | 108% | 105% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 16 | 26 | 37 | 60 | 120 | 328 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 22 | 33 | 65 | 125 | 374 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MAT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAT | -11.8% | 43.6% | -0.16 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | -5.5% | 19.5% | -0.42 | 27.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 17.5% | 13.0% | 0.96 | 19.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 6.9% | 29.6% | 0.23 | -2.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 46.1% | 20.8% | 1.71 | -10.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.1% | 13.7% | -0.10 | 18.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -29.8% | 44.3% | -0.67 | 8.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MAT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAT | -3.2% | 38.1% | 0.01 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 5.0% | 24.1% | 0.16 | 45.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.9% | 17.1% | 0.62 | 43.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.7% | 18.9% | 0.80 | -1.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.3% | 19.5% | 0.40 | 4.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.2% | 18.8% | -0.04 | 36.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 16.0% | 52.2% | 0.47 | 18.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MAT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAT | -5.8% | 42.4% | 0.00 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.1% | 22.2% | 0.50 | 42.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.6% | 17.9% | 0.74 | 42.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.6% | 16.4% | 0.58 | -0.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.3% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 11.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.2% | 20.7% | 0.16 | 35.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 64.1% | 66.2% | 1.04 | 10.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/4/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/4/2026 | -2.7% | 1.1% | -1.5% |
| 4/29/2026 | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 2/10/2026 | -25.0% | -17.9% | -23.0% |
| 10/21/2025 | -2.8% | 2.2% | -1.3% |
| 7/23/2025 | -16.4% | -15.1% | -12.0% |
| 5/5/2025 | 2.8% | 17.3% | 15.2% |
| 2/4/2025 | 15.3% | 20.9% | 14.4% |
| 10/23/2024 | 4.4% | 14.4% | 3.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 16 | 12 |
| # Negative | 10 | 8 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 3.6% | 6.0% | 9.1% |
| Median Negative | -4.9% | -4.0% | -4.1% |
| Max Positive | 15.3% | 20.9% | 16.4% |
| Max Negative | -25.0% | -17.9% | -23.0% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/4/2026 | -2.7% | 1.1% | -1.5% |
| 4/29/2026 | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 2/10/2026 | -25.0% | -17.9% | -23.0% |
| 10/21/2025 | -2.8% | 2.2% | -1.3% |
| 7/23/2025 | -16.4% | -15.1% | -12.0% |
| 5/5/2025 | 2.8% | 17.3% | 15.2% |
| 2/4/2025 | 15.3% | 20.9% | 14.4% |
| 10/23/2024 | 4.4% | 14.4% | 3.4% |
| 7/23/2024 | 9.8% | 13.7% | 11.8% |
| 4/23/2024 | 2.4% | -2.2% | -4.5% |
| 2/7/2024 | 0.3% | 2.6% | 5.2% |
| 10/25/2023 | -7.6% | -3.9% | -6.7% |
| 7/26/2023 | -0.4% | -0.3% | -0.2% |
| 4/26/2023 | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.2% |
| 2/8/2023 | -10.7% | -9.1% | -18.5% |
| 10/25/2022 | -2.7% | -4.1% | -8.4% |
| 7/21/2022 | -7.1% | -3.6% | 0.2% |
| 4/27/2022 | 0.7% | 10.1% | -2.2% |
| 2/9/2022 | 7.6% | 12.4% | -0.5% |
| 10/21/2021 | 0.6% | 5.2% | 11.4% |
| 7/27/2021 | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% |
| 4/22/2021 | 0.8% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 2/9/2021 | -2.1% | 1.3% | 11.3% |
| 10/22/2020 | 9.6% | 8.4% | 16.4% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 16 | 12 |
| # Negative | 10 | 8 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 3.6% | 6.0% | 9.1% |
| Median Negative | -4.9% | -4.0% | -4.1% |
| Max Positive | 15.3% | 20.9% | 16.4% |
| Max Negative | -25.0% | -17.9% | -23.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/01/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/23/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/26/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/01/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/23/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/26/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/28/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/09/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/29/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/25/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/03/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/10/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/25/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/12/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 10/4/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Net Sales Growth | Reported | 3.0% | 4.5% | |||||
| 2026 Adjusted Gross Margin | Reported | 50.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Adjusted Operating Income | Reported | 580.00 Mil | 605.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 605.00 Mil for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Adjusted Tax Rate | Reported | 24.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Adjusted EPS | Reported | 1.27 | 1.33 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.33 for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Share Repurchases | Reported | 400.00 Mil | ||||||
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/29/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Adjusted Operating Income | Reported | 580.00 Mil | 605.00 Mil | 630.00 Mil | 5.2% | Raised | Guidance: 575.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EPS | Reported | 1.27 | 1.33 | 1.39 | 7.3% | Raised | Guidance: 1.24 for 2026 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/10/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Net Sales Growth | Reported | 3.0% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 2.5% | Higher New | Actual: 2.0% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Gross Margin | Reported | 50.0% | 0.0% | Same New | Actual: 50.0% for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted Operating Income | Reported | 550.00 Mil | 575.00 Mil | 600.00 Mil | -20.7% | Lower New | Actual: 725.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Tax Rate | Reported | 24.0% | 0.5% | Higher New | Actual: 23.5% for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted EPS | Reported | 1.18 | 1.24 | 1.3 | -22.5% | Lower New | Actual: 1.6 for 2025 | |
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/21/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Net Sales | Reported | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.02 for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted Gross Margin | Reported | 50.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 50.0% for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Adjusted Operating Income | Reported | 700.00 Mil | 725.00 Mil | 750.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 725.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted Tax Rate | Reported | 23.0% | 23.5% | 24.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 23.5% for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted EPS | Reported | 1.54 | 1.6 | 1.66 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.6 for 2025 | |
| 2025 Free Cash Flow | Reported | 500.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 500.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Share Repurchases | Reported | 600.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 600.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Oct 7, 202613F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)
Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager |
|---|
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patient Capital Management, LLC | $55.4 Mil | 2.1% | 40 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Simcoe Capital Management, LLC | $52.4 Mil | 9.4% | 14 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Ranmore Fund Management Ltd | $43.6 Mil | 7.5% | 18 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| HS Management Partners, LLC | $13.6 Mil | 2.9% | 24 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Serenity Capital Management PTE. LTD. | $29.1 Mil | 7.0% | 10 | TRIM -16.1% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
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Monster High™: Skulltimate Secrets™ - Launch Trailer
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Leisure Products Resources |
| The Toy Book |
| Bicycle Retailer |
| SGB Media |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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Core Cache Last Updated: 10/6/2026