Grand Canyon Education (LOPE)
Market Price (11/7/2026): $117.72 | Market Cap: $3.0 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Education Services
Grand Canyon Education (LOPE)
Market Price (11/7/2026): $117.72Market Cap: $3.0 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Education Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.3%, FCF Yield is 8.8% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 27% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Education. Themes include Online Education Platforms, Educational Technology Integration, and Workforce-Oriented Education. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -48%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -83% | Key risksLOPE key risks include [1] intense legal and regulatory scrutiny from federal agencies over its advertising practices and nonprofit status claims, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.3%, FCF Yield is 8.8% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 27% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Education. Themes include Online Education Platforms, Educational Technology Integration, and Workforce-Oriented Education. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -48%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -83% |
| Key risksLOPE key risks include [1] intense legal and regulatory scrutiny from federal agencies over its advertising practices and nonprofit status claims, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) stock has lost about 20% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Weaker-than-expected new enrollment trends and a lowered full-year outlook impacted investor confidence. Grand Canyon Education reported flat new enrollments for fiscal Q3 2026, missing expectations, particularly at its traditional ground campus. This led the company to lower its full-year revenue outlook and projected operating margin. A shift of approximately $7.5 million in service revenue from fiscal Q3 2026 to fiscal Q4 2026, due to a later start date for the fall semester, also contributed to the fiscal Q3 revenue shortfall.
2. Revenue miss and adjusted profitability decline in fiscal Q3 2026. The company reported service revenue of $267.3 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, which increased 2.4% year-over-year but fell short of the consensus estimate of $270.11 million. While GAAP net income and operating income showed significant increases, the adjusted diluted net income per share for fiscal Q3 2026 was $1.77, a slight decrease from $1.78 in the prior-year period. Additionally, adjusted EBITDA declined 3.2% to $73.5 million from $75.9 million in fiscal Q3 2025.
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Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) stock has lost about 20% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Weaker-than-expected new enrollment trends and a lowered full-year outlook impacted investor confidence. Grand Canyon Education reported flat new enrollments for fiscal Q3 2026, missing expectations, particularly at its traditional ground campus. This led the company to lower its full-year revenue outlook and projected operating margin. A shift of approximately $7.5 million in service revenue from fiscal Q3 2026 to fiscal Q4 2026, due to a later start date for the fall semester, also contributed to the fiscal Q3 revenue shortfall.
2. Revenue miss and adjusted profitability decline in fiscal Q3 2026. The company reported service revenue of $267.3 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, which increased 2.4% year-over-year but fell short of the consensus estimate of $270.11 million. While GAAP net income and operating income showed significant increases, the adjusted diluted net income per share for fiscal Q3 2026 was $1.77, a slight decrease from $1.78 in the prior-year period. Additionally, adjusted EBITDA declined 3.2% to $73.5 million from $75.9 million in fiscal Q3 2025.
3. Analyst downgrades and price target reductions reflected dampened expectations. Following the fiscal Q3 2026 earnings report, analysts adjusted their outlooks. Truist Financial, for instance, cut its price target for LOPE from $200.00 to $180.00 on November 5, 2026, while maintaining a "Buy" rating. Similarly, BMO Capital Markets reduced its price target from $185.00 to $182.00 on October 5, 2026. Shares of LOPE hit a 52-week low of $132.80 on November 5, 2026, following these reports.
4. Pressure on online revenue per student due to a program mix shift. Grand Canyon Education experienced a slight decline in online revenue per student year-over-year in fiscal Q3 2026. This was primarily attributed to a shift in enrollment mix towards programs with somewhat lower net tuition rates, which can impact overall profitability.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -19.0% change in LOPE stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a -28.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 145.34 | 117.69 | -19.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,142 | 1,148 | 0.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 19.6% | 21.9% | 11.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.0 | 12.1 | -28.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 26 | 26 | 1.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -19.0% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LOPE | -19.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | -1.6% | 52.5% |
| Sector (XLY) | 1.3% | 42.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -30.4% change in LOPE stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a -41.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 169.07 | 117.69 | -30.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,126 | 1,148 | 2.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 19.5% | 21.9% | 11.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.6 | 12.1 | -41.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 27 | 26 | 4.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -30.4% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LOPE | -30.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.6% | 16.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | -0.5% | 16.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -37.5% change in LOPE stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a -45.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 188.30 | 117.69 | -37.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,068 | 1,148 | 7.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 22.2% | 21.9% | -1.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 22.3 | 12.1 | -45.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 28 | 26 | 8.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -37.5% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LOPE | -37.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.7% | 18.1% |
| Sector (XLY) | -1.4% | 20.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -0.5% change in LOPE stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a -36.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 118.33 | 117.69 | -0.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 928 | 1,148 | 23.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 20.4% | 21.9% | 7.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 18.8 | 12.1 | -36.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 30 | 26 | 17.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -0.5% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LOPE | -0.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 81.9% | 31.1% |
| Sector (XLY) | 58.2% | 30.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LOPE Return | -8% | 23% | 25% | 24% | 2% | -29% | 26% |
| Peers Return | 5% | 15% | 36% | 37% | -2% | -9% | 101% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LOPE Win Rate | 42% | 58% | 58% | 42% | 58% | 45% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 43% | 53% | 55% | 55% | 53% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 45% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LOPE Max Drawdown | -39% | -22% | -16% | -15% | -32% | -35% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -30% | -24% | -22% | -20% | -34% | -29% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: LOPE, STRA, PRDO, LRN, GHC. See LOPE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/6/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LOPE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -11.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 24 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -12.9% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 69 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -10.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 14 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -31.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 42 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -20.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.9% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 59 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -14.9% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.5% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 13 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Grand Canyon Education's stock fell -11.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 13.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | LOPE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -31.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 42 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -20.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.9% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 59 days | 105 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -22.0% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.2% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 62 days | 15 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -21.1% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.7% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 953 days | 125 days |
In The Past
Grand Canyon Education's stock fell -11.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 13.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Grand Canyon Education (LOPE)
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE) is a comprehensive education services provider that partners with colleges and universities across the United States. The company's core mission is to empower these institutions by offering a wide array of support services, allowing them to efficiently deliver and manage their academic programs and enhance the overall student experience.
LOPE's extensive service portfolio includes essential technology services such as learning management systems and internal administration support. It also provides critical academic services, encompassing program and curriculum development, faculty training, and class scheduling. Furthermore, the company offers crucial student counseling and support services, including assistance with admissions, financial aid, and field experiences. Beyond these, Grand Canyon Education aids its university partners with marketing and communication strategies, from lead acquisition to brand development, and handles vital back-office functions like finance, human resources, and procurement.
A key component of Grand Canyon Education's business is its subsidiary, Orbis Education Services, LLC. Through Orbis, the company specializes in supporting and expanding healthcare education programs for 27 universities. This specialized focus allows LOPE to play a significant role in developing the next generation of healthcare professionals by providing tailored services for these vital university programs.
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Here are 1-2 brief analogies for Grand Canyon Education (LOPE):
- Grand Canyon Education is like Accenture for universities, providing a wide array of operational, technological, and marketing services to educational institutions.
- It's similar to IBM Consulting for higher education, handling everything from curriculum development and digital marketing to back-office support for colleges.
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- Technology Services: Grand Canyon Education provides technology infrastructure and support, including learning management systems and internal administrative tools, for universities.
- Academic Services: The company offers services related to program and curriculum development, faculty training, class scheduling, and management of lab sites.
- Counseling Services: This includes support for admissions, financial aid, and various field experience and other student counseling needs.
- Marketing and Communication Services: Grand Canyon Education provides comprehensive marketing support, from lead acquisition and digital strategy to brand identity and market research.
- Back-Office Services: The company handles essential administrative functions such as finance, accounting, human resources, audit, and procurement for educational institutions.
- Healthcare Education Program Support: Through its subsidiary Orbis Education Services, LOPE supports the development and operation of healthcare education programs for universities.
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Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE) sells primarily to other companies, specifically colleges and universities.
Its major customers are:
- Colleges and universities in the United States, to which it provides a range of education services including technology, academic, counseling, marketing, and back-office services.
- Through its subsidiary Orbis Education Services, LLC, it supports healthcare education programs for 27 different universities.
The specific names of these customer universities are not provided in the company description, and as educational institutions, they do not trade on public stock exchanges, therefore do not have stock symbols.
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Brian E. Mueller, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board
Brian E. Mueller has served as Chief Executive Officer of Grand Canyon Education since July 1, 2008, a director since March 2009, and Chairman of the Board since January 2017. Since July 1, 2018, Mr. Mueller has also served as the President of Grand Canyon University, an independent non-profit Arizona corporation that is a significant university partner to GCE. From 2012 to 2018, Mr. Mueller served as the President of Grand Canyon University when it was owned and operated by the Company. Prior to Grand Canyon Education, from 1987 to 2008, Mr. Mueller was employed by Apollo Education Group, Inc., the parent company of the University of Phoenix, serving as its President and a Director from January 2006 to June 2008. He also held positions as Chief Operating Officer of Apollo Education Group, Inc., and Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, and Senior Vice President of the University of Phoenix Online. Mr. Mueller was a professor at Concordia University from 1983 to 1987.
Daniel E. Bachus, Chief Financial Officer
Daniel E. Bachus has served as Chief Financial Officer of Grand Canyon Education since July 2008. He also serves as the Principal Accounting Officer for Grand Canyon Education, Inc. and Chief Finance Officer at Grand Canyon University. From January 2007 to June 2008, Mr. Bachus was the Chief Financial Officer for Loreto Bay Company, a real estate developer. From 2000 to 2006, he served as Chief Accounting Officer and Controller of Apollo Education Group, Inc. Before that, from 1992 to 2000, Mr. Bachus was an Audit Senior Manager at Deloitte & Touche LLP.
Dr. W. Stan Meyer, Chief Operating Officer
Dr. W. Stan Meyer has served as Chief Operating Officer of Grand Canyon Education since July 26, 2012, having previously served as Executive Vice President from June 2008 to July 2012. From August 2002 to June 2008, Dr. Meyer was employed by Apollo Education Group, Inc., serving as its Executive Vice President of marketing and enrollment from June 2006 to June 2008. He also held roles as a regional vice president of the University of Phoenix Online and division director of Axia College and the School of Advanced Studies. From 1983 to 2002, Dr. Meyer held several positions with the Concordia University system, including director of operations for Concordia University's education network.
Dilek Marsh, Chief Technology Officer
Dilek Marsh has served as Chief Technology Officer at Grand Canyon Education since July 2021, having previously served as Chief Data Officer since July 2018, Executive Vice President since July 2012, and Senior Vice President since August 2008. Ms. Marsh has over 20 years of experience in higher education and has served in information technology roles since 1999, including software development project management, business process design, and business analytics.
Kathy J. Claypatch, Chief Information Officer
Kathy J. Claypatch has served as Chief Information Officer since July 2021, having previously held the position of Chief Technology Officer beginning in October 2012. From 2006 to 2012, Ms. Claypatch worked in the financial industry, serving as the Chief Information Officer for Apriva and Vice President of Information Technology for TSYS Acquiring Solutions. From 2002 to 2006, she worked in higher education at Apollo Education Group, Inc., where she was responsible for growing the information technology infrastructure to support the online education environment and its rapid growth.
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Here are the key risks to Grand Canyon Education (LOPE):
- Regulatory and Legal Scrutiny: Grand Canyon Education operates in the heavily regulated for-profit higher education sector, which faces intense government interference and legal challenges. The Biden administration's reintroduction of the Gainful Employment (GE) rule poses a significant threat, as it could impact the eligibility of students in certain programs for federal student loans if graduates incur excessive debt or earn insufficient income. The company is also embroiled in ongoing legal battles, including a prominent dispute between its primary partner, Grand Canyon University (GCU), and the U.S. Department of Education (DOE) over GCU's non-profit status. Additionally, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has sued GCU alleging deceptive marketing practices and misrepresentation of doctoral program costs. Grand Canyon Education itself is a party to legal proceedings, including a "qui tam" lawsuit regarding compensation practices and a civil RICO class action. Adverse outcomes from these legal and regulatory actions, including potential fines or restrictions on federal student aid, could severely impact the company's financial performance and operational model.
- High Dependence on Grand Canyon University (GCU): Grand Canyon Education has a substantial concentration risk due to its significant reliance on Grand Canyon University (GCU) for a vast majority of its revenue. As of June 30, 2025, 96.7% of GCE's total student enrollments were attributed to GCU, and for the three months ended March 31, 2025, GCU generated 90.4% of LOPE's service revenue. This high level of dependency means that any operational issues, declines in student enrollment, or negative regulatory actions directly affecting GCU could have a material adverse effect on Grand Canyon Education's financial stability and business viability. The master services agreement with GCU, while providing a stable revenue stream, also exposes GCE to the risk that this agreement could be terminated or renegotiated under regulatory pressure, potentially eliminating GCE's primary source of income.
- Competitive Pressures and Online Program Management (OPM) Market Dynamics: The education services and Online Program Management (OPM) markets are highly competitive and experiencing significant challenges. The OPM sector has seen a sharp decline in new partnerships and a rise in contract terminations, with a dramatic reduction in funding for OPM providers. Grand Canyon Education faces competition from traditional institutions, other online program managers, and emerging low-cost or free digital education alternatives. This intense competition can lead to pricing pressures and a potential slowdown in enrollment growth. The company has also observed a slight decline in revenue per student due to shifts towards online students with lower net tuition rates and contract modifications with some partners. Sustaining growth requires continuous innovation and value-added services in this evolving market.
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The rapid development and increasing accessibility of AI-powered tools that enable universities to perform functions such as lead acquisition, curriculum development, and student support services more efficiently in-house, thereby reducing the necessity for comprehensive external education service providers like Grand Canyon Education.
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Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE) operates within several addressable markets related to education services, primarily in the United States. The company provides a range of services including technology, academic, counseling, marketing, and back-office support, as well as specialized healthcare education programs.
The addressable markets for Grand Canyon Education's main products and services are as follows:
- Education Services to Colleges and Universities: The U.S. higher education market was valued at approximately USD 218.27 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 668.33 billion by 2033, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.24% from 2024 to 2033.
- Technology Services: This includes learning management systems, internal administration, infrastructure, and support services.
- The U.S. education technology (EdTech) market was valued at USD 87.4 billion in 2024 and is expected to increase to USD 197.3 billion by 2032, advancing at a CAGR of 10.9% during 2025–2032.
- Specifically, the U.S. learning management systems (LMS) market generated approximately USD 7,946.5 million in revenue in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 27,795.5 million by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 17% from 2026 to 2033.
- Academic Services: This encompasses program and curriculum development, faculty training, class scheduling, and skills and simulation lab sites. The total addressable market for U.S. Educational Support Services is estimated to be approximately USD 20 billion, with a CAGR of 5.5%.
- Counseling Services and Support: This includes admission, financial aid, and field experience and other counseling services. The independent college counseling industry in the U.S. is a USD 3 billion market.
- Marketing and Communication Services: The global education marketing services market is valued at USD 1.07 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 1.68 billion by 2035, growing at a CAGR of approximately 6.7% from 2026 to 2035. North America is expected to lead this market.
- Back-Office Services: This covers finance and accounting, human resources, audit, and procurement services. The global back-office support business process outsourcing market was valued at USD 13,116.1 million in 2025 and is estimated to grow to USD 26,230.4 million by 2033, with North America being the largest revenue-generating market.
- Healthcare Education Programs Support (through Orbis Education Services): The U.S. healthcare education market is expected to reach USD 61.44 billion by 2028, growing from USD 39.24 billion in 2023 at a CAGR of 9.4%.
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Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives:
- Continued Enrollment Growth in Online and Hybrid Programs: The company anticipates sustained growth in both its online and hybrid program enrollments. Management projects mid- to high-single-digit growth in new online enrollments, and hybrid campus enrollment has shown significant increases. This growth is a consistent theme across recent earnings reports, with increases in overall student numbers at Grand Canyon University (GCU) and other partner institutions.
- Expansion of Healthcare Education Programs via Orbis Education: Grand Canyon Education's subsidiary, Orbis Education Services, LLC, is a significant driver, focusing on expanding pre-licensure healthcare programs, particularly accelerated Bachelor of Science in Nursing (ABSN) and occupational therapy assistant programs. Orbis aims to grow to approximately 70 locations within the next five years, significantly expanding its presence from the current 26 states. These programs are noted for generating significantly higher revenue per student compared to other offerings.
- Development of New Program Offerings and Strategic Corporate Partnerships: The company plans selective program expansion, including new graduate nursing and occupational therapy offerings, to boost overall student numbers. Additionally, robust corporate partnerships are a key contributor to online enrollment growth, with approximately one-third of new online students originating from employer relationships.
- Increased Revenue per Student, particularly from High-Revenue Hybrid ABSN Programs: Grand Canyon Education has observed and expects continued growth in revenue per student. This increase is primarily attributed to the expansion of hybrid ABSN programs, which typically yield a significantly higher revenue per student.
- Effective Digital Marketing and Recruitment Strategies: Management highlights targeted investments in marketing and recruitment as crucial for performance. The shift to digital media for ground campus recruitment has led to improved application and registration rates, indicating that continued optimization of these strategies will contribute to future enrollment and, consequently, revenue growth.
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Share Repurchases
- In December 2025, Grand Canyon Education's Board of Directors approved a $300 million increase to its existing stock repurchase program, bringing the total authorized amount to $2.545 billion.
- The company repurchased 605,730 shares of its common stock in 2025 at a cost of approximately $100 million.
- As of February 18, 2026, approximately $284.6 million remained available under the share repurchase authorization, which is set to expire on March 1, 2027.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for 2025 were approximately $7.6 million, representing 2.5% of service revenue.
- Grand Canyon Education anticipates capital expenditures for 2026 to be between $30 million and $35 million.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures includes new off-campus classroom and laboratory sites, computer equipment, internal use software projects, and furniture and equipment to support increasing employee headcount and hybrid education model expansion.
Peer Outperformance in Education Services
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOPE | Grand Canyon Education | 6.9% | 12.1x | -29.5% | -13.9% | 40.1% | — |
| GHC | Graham | 5.9% | 10.3x | 17.6% | 99.8% | 108.7% | +69pp |
| LRN | Stride | 10.4% | 9.3x | 6.2% | 33.7% | 107.1% | +67pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education Services ← | 14 | -12.6% | 33.7% | 41.0% | CVSA 246% · GHC 109% · LRN 107% |
| Homebuilding | 17 | 3.7% | 29.7% | 29.7% | PHM 175% · TOL 159% · GRBK 150% |
| Automotive Retail | 17 | -2.1% | 18.9% | 11.3% | MUSA 209% · PAG 115% · ORLY 111% |
| Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines | 21 | 19.8% | 56.9% | 7.0% | RCL 250% · MAR 159% · HLT 147% |
| Home Improvement Retail | 5 | -4.3% | 3.3% | 5.3% | HD 6% · LOW 5% · FND -62% |
| Home Furnishings | 3 | 4.6% | 73.9% | -1.2% | SGI 50% · MHK -15% |
| Footwear | 9 | 75.0% | 79.9% | -15.7% | DECK 23% · SHOO -11% · CROX -16% |
| Restaurants | 36 | 2.4% | -4.6% | -24.2% | EAT 363% · CAKE 158% · TXRH 110% |
| Computer & Electronics Retail | 3 | 33.4% | 75.8% | -24.5% | BBY -3% · GME -53% |
| Specialized Consumer Services | 10 | -8.5% | 32.3% | -25.5% | FTDR 168% · HRB 146% · ADT 24% |
| Distributors | 4 | -5.4% | -16.9% | -26.0% | ARMK 96% · GPC 4% · POOL -56% |
| Leisure Products | 14 | -16.4% | -4.9% | -34.4% | GOLF 51% · HAS 50% · BC -14% |
| Leisure Facilities | 12 | 18.9% | 0.4% | -39.5% | OSW 160% · LTH 143% · PLNT -37% |
| Household Appliances | 18 | 34.2% | 20.6% | -40.3% | WHR -82% |
| Broadline Retail | 12 | -5.8% | 14.0% | -45.7% | EBAY 76% · AMZN 47% · OLLI 24% |
| Apparel Retail | 27 | -3.8% | 1.8% | -48.8% | ANF 223% · VSXY 110% · TJX 104% |
| Automotive Parts & Equipment | 37 | -13.2% | -28.2% | -48.8% | GTX 197% · PATK 64% · ALV 41% |
| Casinos & Gaming | 21 | -25.8% | -16.1% | -51.8% | RRR 22% · BYD 19% · LVS 3% |
| Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods | 29 | 15.8% | 17.8% | -53.7% | TPR 255% · RL 225% · KTB 59% |
| Other Specialty Retail | 25 | -0.1% | -11.4% | -57.7% | ULTA 65% · ASO 53% · ARHS 26% |
| Automobile Manufacturers | 8 | -59.8% | -44.0% | -70.5% | GM 54% · TSLA -12% · F -12% |
| Consumer Electronics | 11 | -31.9% | -29.8% | -80.5% | GRMN 122% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 75.03 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.0 |
| Rev LTM | 1,291 |
| Op Inc LTM | 304 |
| FCF LTM | 256 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 246 |
| CFO LTM | 302 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 284 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 5.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 15.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 18.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 16.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 19.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.1% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $117.69 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 3.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 11/20/2008 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -34.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $152.74 | $156.45 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | -22.9% | -24.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 45.0% | 35.6% |
| Downside Capture | -9.33 | 33.56 |
| Upside Capture | -17.39 | 8.59 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | -1.9% | 2.6% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.07 | -0.27 | 0.14 | -0.49 | 0.01 | 0.53 |
| Up Beta | -0.97 | 0.19 | 0.75 | -0.65 | -0.09 | 0.71 |
| Down Beta | 0.82 | 0.34 | -0.42 | -0.51 | 0.05 | 0.68 |
| Up Capture | -60% | -50% | 17% | -39% | -10% | 10% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 22 | 32 | 59 | 124 | 392 |
| Down Capture | -19% | -51% | 10% | -42% | 33% | 55% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 67 | 127 | 358 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LOPE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOPE | -34.1% | 35.6% | -1.10 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | -1.9% | 19.8% | -0.22 | 22.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 9.5% | 13.6% | 0.40 | 18.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 1.6% | 28.7% | 0.05 | -7.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 38.4% | 21.2% | 1.42 | -8.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.3% | 14.2% | 0.51 | 26.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -26.9% | 43.6% | -0.60 | 8.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LOPE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOPE | 8.1% | 30.7% | 0.28 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 4.0% | 24.2% | 0.12 | 30.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.3% | 17.3% | 0.48 | 32.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.5% | 19.1% | 0.74 | 1.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.1% | 19.6% | 0.30 | 1.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.3% | 18.9% | -0.04 | 28.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.1% | 51.6% | 0.26 | 13.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LOPE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOPE | 10.6% | 31.8% | 0.38 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.8% | 22.3% | 0.52 | 34.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.0% | 18.0% | 0.70 | 36.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.9% | 16.5% | 0.59 | 2.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 18.1% | 0.33 | 9.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.9% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 31.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.1% | 66.3% | 1.00 | 8.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 11/7/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2026 | -18.9% | ||
| 7/30/2026 | -3.2% | -0.9% | 0.7% |
| 4/30/2026 | -3.3% | -2.7% | -9.9% |
| 2/18/2026 | -7.9% | -6.5% | -2.0% |
| 11/5/2025 | -6.3% | -4.7% | -15.4% |
| 8/6/2025 | 13.2% | 15.1% | 18.7% |
| 5/6/2025 | 4.6% | 5.2% | 2.7% |
| 2/19/2025 | 1.8% | -2.5% | -7.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 10 | 13 |
| # Negative | 12 | 14 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 3.8% | 5.2% | 4.8% |
| Median Negative | -4.9% | -3.9% | -9.9% |
| Max Positive | 14.9% | 16.1% | 26.5% |
| Max Negative | -18.9% | -12.3% | -16.9% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2026 | -18.9% | ||
| 7/30/2026 | -3.2% | -0.9% | 0.7% |
| 4/30/2026 | -3.3% | -2.7% | -9.9% |
| 2/18/2026 | -7.9% | -6.5% | -2.0% |
| 11/5/2025 | -6.3% | -4.7% | -15.4% |
| 8/6/2025 | 13.2% | 15.1% | 18.7% |
| 5/6/2025 | 4.6% | 5.2% | 2.7% |
| 2/19/2025 | 1.8% | -2.5% | -7.6% |
| 11/6/2024 | 2.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% |
| 8/6/2024 | -3.5% | -3.0% | -3.6% |
| 5/7/2024 | 5.2% | 3.4% | 3.1% |
| 2/13/2024 | 1.8% | -1.1% | 1.0% |
| 11/2/2023 | 12.5% | 12.7% | 14.1% |
| 8/3/2023 | 5.7% | 1.2% | 9.3% |
| 5/2/2023 | -2.0% | -6.1% | -11.2% |
| 2/16/2023 | 3.0% | 0.1% | -4.2% |
| 10/27/2022 | 14.9% | 16.1% | 26.5% |
| 8/4/2022 | -10.7% | -12.3% | -14.5% |
| 5/4/2022 | 3.3% | -6.8% | -7.0% |
| 2/16/2022 | 3.7% | 9.0% | 23.5% |
| 10/28/2021 | -9.4% | -6.1% | -16.9% |
| 8/5/2021 | -1.0% | -3.1% | 0.8% |
| 5/5/2021 | -16.0% | -12.2% | -16.3% |
| 2/17/2021 | 3.8% | 4.7% | 6.4% |
| 11/5/2020 | -2.5% | -1.0% | 3.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 10 | 13 |
| # Negative | 12 | 14 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 3.8% | 5.2% | 4.8% |
| Median Negative | -4.9% | -3.9% | -9.9% |
| Max Positive | 14.9% | 16.1% | 26.5% |
| Max Negative | -18.9% | -12.3% | -16.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/13/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/16/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/13/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/16/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/16/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/17/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/04/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/07/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/20/2020 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 11/5/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 11/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 Service Revenue | Reported | 320.50 Mil | 321.00 Mil | 321.50 Mil | -1.7% | Lowered | Guidance: 326.50 Mil for Q4 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Operating Margin | Reported | 36.0% | 36.1% | 36.2% | -1.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 37.15% for Q4 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Effective Tax Rate | Reported | 23.0% | ||||||
| Q4 2026 Diluted EPS | Reported | 3.57 | 3.59 | 3.61 | -4.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 3.74 for Q4 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 3.63 | 3.65 | 3.67 | ||||
| Q4 2026 Diluted Shares | Reported | 25.30 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 Service Revenue | Reported | 1.16 Bil | 1.16 Bil | 1.16 Bil | -0.7% | Lowered | Guidance: 1.17 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Operating Margin | Reported | 27.6% | 27.65% | 27.7% | -0.4% | Lowered | Guidance: 28.1% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Effective Tax Rate | Reported | 23.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Diluted EPS | Reported | 9.81 | 9.83 | 9.85 | -1.7% | Lowered | Guidance: 10 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 10.09 | 10.11 | 10.13 | ||||
| 2026 Diluted Shares | Reported | 26.00 Mil | ||||||
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/30/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Service Revenue | Reported | 268.50 Mil | 269.50 Mil | 270.50 Mil | -2.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 275.00 Mil for Q3 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Operating Margin | Reported | 19.5% | 19.75% | 20.0% | -2.2% | Lowered | Guidance: 22.0% for Q3 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Diluted EPS | Reported | 1.68 | 1.7 | 1.72 | -6.3% | Lowered | Guidance: 1.82 for Q3 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Service Revenue | Reported | 324.00 Mil | 326.50 Mil | 329.00 Mil | -2.2% | Lowered | Guidance: 333.75 Mil for Q4 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Operating Margin | Reported | 36.9% | 37.15% | 37.4% | -0.2% | Lowered | Guidance: 37.3% for Q4 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Diluted EPS | Reported | 3.69 | 3.74 | 3.79 | 0.3% | Raised | Guidance: 3.73 for Q4 2026 | |
| 2026 Service Revenue | Reported | 1.17 Bil | 1.17 Bil | 1.17 Bil | -0.9% | Lowered | Guidance: 1.18 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Operating Margin | Reported | 28.0% | 28.1% | 28.2% | -0.3% | Lowered | Guidance: 28.4% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Diluted EPS | Reported | 9.93 | 10 | 10.07 | 0.3% | Raised | Guidance: 9.98 for 2026 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/18/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Service Revenue | Reported | 307.00 Mil | 307.50 Mil | 308.00 Mil | 0 | Same New | Guidance: 307.50 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Operating Margin | Reported | 30.0% | 30.15% | 30.3% | -5.3% | Lower New | Guidance: 35.45% for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Diluted EPS | Reported | 2.7 | 2.72 | 2.73 | -13.1% | Lower New | Guidance: 3.13 for Q4 2025 | |
| Q2 2026 Service Revenue | Reported | 260.00 Mil | 262.00 Mil | 264.00 Mil | -14.8% | Lower New | Guidance: 307.50 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Operating Margin | Reported | 20.1% | 20.7% | 21.3% | -9.4% | Lower New | Guidance: 30.15% for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Diluted EPS | Reported | 1.56 | 1.62 | 1.68 | -40.3% | Lower New | Guidance: 2.72 for Q1 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Service Revenue | Reported | 271.50 Mil | 275.00 Mil | 278.50 Mil | 5.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 262.00 Mil for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Operating Margin | Reported | 21.0% | 22.0% | 23.0% | 1.3% | Higher New | Guidance: 20.7% for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Diluted EPS | Reported | 1.72 | 1.82 | 1.91 | 12.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.62 for Q2 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Service Revenue | Reported | 329.00 Mil | 333.75 Mil | 338.50 Mil | 21.4% | Higher New | Guidance: 275.00 Mil for Q3 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Operating Margin | Reported | 36.4% | 37.3% | 38.2% | 15.3% | Higher New | Guidance: 22.0% for Q3 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Diluted EPS | Reported | 3.57 | 3.71 | 3.85 | 104.4% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.82 for Q3 2026 | |
| 2026 Service Revenue | Reported | 1.17 Bil | 1.18 Bil | 1.19 Bil | 6.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.11 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Operating Margin | Reported | 27.5% | 28.15% | 28.8% | 4.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 24.15% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Diluted EPS | Reported | 9.55 | 9.86 | 10.16 | 27.7% | Higher New | Guidance: 7.72 for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 6/11/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Humphrey, Chevy | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 166.15 | 600 | 99,690 | 520,216 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Humphrey, Chevy | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 166.15 | 600 | 99,690 | 520,216 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 7, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager |
|---|
LOPE Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Grand Canyon Education's high-margin, cash-generative service model and net-cash balance sheet provide resilience. The recent stock decline reflects a near-term slowdown in new student growth. However, management has a funded, multi-part plan to re-accelerate growth in 2027, including new campus programs and continued expansion of its high-revenue hybrid platform.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Service / Revenue Share(Number of Partner Students) x (Average Partner Tuition & Fees) x (GCE's Revenue Share %) Operating leverage achieved by scaling technology and centralized services across a growing base of student enrollments.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence points to a temporary slowdown, with a specific, funded plan for recovery in 2027.
- Hybrid campus enrollment grew 14.1% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
- Core GCU online enrollment grew a steady 7.1% year-over-year.
- Revenue is secured by a 15-year services agreement with its primary partner.
- Management has a stated plan to grow the ground campus to 50,000 students.
- The company maintains a net cash position of $-48.1 million.
PRIMARY RISK
Total new student enrollments were flat in Q3 2026, missing expectations and causing a reduction in full-year 2026 revenue and earnings guidance.
- Total new enrollments for all platforms were flat in Q3 2026.
- Full-year 2026 service revenue guidance was lowered by -0.7%.
- Full-year 2026 diluted EPS guidance was lowered by -1.7%.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Total Enrollment Growth | 5.2% year-over-year growth for Q3 2026 - Decelerating | The growth in total student enrollments has slowed, falling from the 7.6% range seen in recent quarters. This deceleration reflects the slowdown in new student starts, particularly the miss on the ground campus. |
| New Enrollment Growth (New Starts) | Flat year-over-year for Q3 2026 - Decelerating | Management stated that new enrollments did not meet expectations, primarily due to a miss in new students at the GCU traditional ground campus. While online new enrollments were also flat, this was against "very tough comps." The company expects online new starts to return to mid-single-digit growth in Q4. |
| Total University Partner Enrollments | 145,270 (As of 9/30/2026) | Indicates the total scale of the student base GCE serves, which is the primary driver of its revenue-share model. |
| Hybrid Campus Enrollment Growth (ex. teach-outs) | 14.1% year-over-year (Q3 2026) | Represents the growth of the highest-revenue-per-student platform and a key driver of future revenue expansion. |
| Total New Enrollments (All Platforms) | Flat year-over-year (Q3 2026) | A leading indicator for future total enrollment growth. The recent flatness, driven by the ground campus, led to a guidance reduction. |
Temporary Stumble vs. Structural Slowdown
BULL VIEW
Bulls focus on 14.1% hybrid growth and the funded 2027 plan for a new law school and construction college to reignite growth, seeing the current valuation as an overreaction.
CORE TENSION
Can strong 14.1% hybrid growth and new 2027 campus initiatives offset the flat new enrollment trend that triggered the recent -18% stock decline?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence confirms a real slowdown. However, the company's strong balance sheet and specific, dated recovery catalysts for 2027 provide a clear path to a potential rebound.
BEAR VIEW
Bears see flat new enrollments and the -0.7% cut to 2026 revenue guidance as the start of a sustained deceleration, believing the 2027 recovery plan will fail to materialize.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
1/25/2027 | Negative Peer Read-Across Watch: LRN's commentary on new enrollment trends, cost per acquisition, and the impact of AI on lead generation. |
2/16/2027 | Further Enrollment Deceleration Watch: Whether Q4 new online enrollments return to 'mid-single-digit growth' as guided, and any revision to the 2027 outlook. |
2/16/2027 | Next Earnings Report Watch: The company is scheduled to report its next quarterly earnings. |
2/17/2027 | Peer Earnings Report Watch: Peer Perdoceo Education (PRDO) is scheduled to report earnings. |
2/23/2027 | Peer Earnings Report Watch: Peer Graham (GHC) is scheduled to report earnings. |
July 1, 2027 | New Accountability Rule Effective Watch: A new earnings premium test is scheduled to become effective, replacing the FVT/GE framework for accountability. |
March 1, 2028 | Share Repurchase Authorization Expires Watch: The company's current stock repurchase authorization is set to expire. |
No set date | Adverse Regulatory Headlines Watch: Any Department of Education announcements, Dear Colleague Letters, or proposed rules related to third-party servicers or incentive compensation. |
beginning in January | New College Enrollment Ramp Watch: GCU's College of Construction and Industrial Technologies will begin adding students in significant numbers. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-11-04 | Severe Market Reaction To Earnings Details: The stock had a two-day reaction of -18.0% around the November 4, 2026 earnings call, significantly underperforming the S&P 500's -3.0% move. | -17.8% $148.73 -> $122.25 |
2026-11-04 | Guidance Lowered For 2026 Details: Following its Q3 report on November 4, 2026, the company lowered its full-year 2026 guidance for Service Revenue, Operating Margin, and Diluted EPS. | -17.8% $148.73 -> $122.25 |
2026-11-04 | Q3 Earnings Miss Expectations Details: On November 4, 2026, the company reported Q3 revenue growth of 2.4% and flat new enrollments, which 'did not meet our expectations'. | -17.8% $148.73 -> $122.25 |
2026-10-28 | Share Repurchase Authorization Increased Details: On October 28, 2026, the Board of Directors approved a $355.0 million increase to the existing stock repurchase program. | -2.0% $157.31 -> $154.17 |
2026-09-15 | Major Institutional Share Purchase Details: A press report on September 15, 2026, disclosed that the California State Teachers Retirement System had boosted its position in the second quarter, buying over 4.4 million shares. | +0.3% $153.48 -> $153.87 |
2026-07-30 | Q2 Earnings Reported Details: The company reported Q2 results on July 30, 2026. | -8.8% $159.31 -> $145.34 |
2026-05-28 | Stock Underperformance Highlighted Details: A press report noted the stock was down 10.3% in four weeks and had become technically oversold, suggesting a potential trend reversal. | -1.3% $151.88 -> $149.85 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: LOPE trades at roughly 25% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 10% for the S&P 500 (2.4x the market). A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
STRA - Strategic Education
Peer BenchmarkStrategic Education offers exposure to similar macro trends in career-focused education. However, its U.S. Higher Education enrollment declined 1% in the latest quarter, compared to positive growth for Grand Canyon Education.
PRDO - Perdoceo Education
Higher Growth PeerAn outsourced growth engine for universities, monetizing the shift to career-focused online and hybrid education in high-demand, regulated fields.
Grand Canyon Education operates as a large-scale service provider for universities, primarily its former subsidiary GCU. It thrives by enabling partners to expand into online and hybrid programs for professions with workforce shortages, like nursing and teaching. The company's value lies in its technology, operational scale, and ability to navigate complex regulations, which traditional, slower-moving institutions cannot replicate. Its growth is directly tied to its partners' student enrollment.
Evidence of the four ground campus growth strategies (Common App, new colleges) driving a return to 10%+ growth in Fall 2027; continued double-digit growth in the high-revenue hybrid segment; stabilization of new online student starts.
Failure of the ground campus initiatives to re-accelerate growth; a material slowdown in the hybrid segment; or any regulatory action that threatens the 'bundled services' revenue-share model.
Short-term stock price volatility, particularly if unrelated to enrollment trends or regulatory news.
Repricing Catalyst
The market's reaction to the lowered Q4 and full-year 2026 guidance, weighed against management's detailed plan and confidence in returning to 7%+ growth in 2027, driven by specific new initiatives at the ground campus.
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Education Services Resources |
| EdSurge |
| Education Week |
| Inside Higher Ed |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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