Grand Canyon Education (LOPE)
Market Price (12/20/2025): $166.06 | Market Cap: $4.6 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Education Services
Grand Canyon Education (LOPE)
Market Price (12/20/2025): $166.06Market Cap: $4.6 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Education Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 27% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -24%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -12% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 4.2x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% | Key risksLOPE key risks include [1] intense legal and regulatory scrutiny from federal agencies over its advertising practices and nonprofit status claims, Show more. | |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.2% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Education. Themes include Online Education Platforms, Educational Technology Integration, and Workforce-Oriented Education. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 27% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.2% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Education. Themes include Online Education Platforms, Educational Technology Integration, and Workforce-Oriented Education. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -24%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -12% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 4.2x |
| Key risksLOPE key risks include [1] intense legal and regulatory scrutiny from federal agencies over its advertising practices and nonprofit status claims, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
LOPE Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) experienced a stock decline of approximately -17.7% from August 31, 2025, to December 20, 2025, primarily due to the following key factors:
1. Substantial Decline in Q3 2025 Net and Operating Income: The company reported a significant decrease in its third-quarter 2025 net income, which fell by nearly 60% compared to the prior year, and operating income, which saw a 62.6% reduction. This sharp decline in profitability was a major disappointment to investors, despite adjusted earnings per share meeting consensus estimates and revenue slightly exceeding them.
2. Litigation Settlement Reserve Impact: A considerable portion of the reduced profitability in Q3 2025 was attributed to a $35 million reserve set aside for a litigation settlement. This reserve significantly impacted the company's net income and diluted earnings per share, which missed analysts' estimates by over 66%.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LOPE Return | -3% | -8% | 23% | 25% | 24% | 1% | 72% |
| Peers Return | -14% | -2% | 19% | 46% | 42% | -5% | 99% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LOPE Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 58% | 58% | 42% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 42% | 45% | 52% | 62% | 52% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LOPE Max Drawdown | -38% | -25% | -9% | -5% | -8% | -8% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -40% | -22% | -18% | -8% | -9% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LOPE, STRA, ATGE, PRDO, LRN. See LOPE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LOPE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -39.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 405 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -39.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 75 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -35.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,443 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -35.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 333 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to GHC, ATGE, FCHL, GV, MH
In The Past
Grand Canyon Education's stock fell -39.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/16/2021. A -39.1% loss requires a 64.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to LOPE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.7% | 13.7% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.8% | 5.8% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.6% | 3.6% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.4% | 18.4% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.9% | 11.9% | -1.6% |
| 10312021 | LOPE | Grand Canyon Education | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 20.4% | 26.3% | -11.9% |
| 09302020 | LOPE | Grand Canyon Education | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 34.0% | 10.0% | -3.1% |
| 01312020 | LOPE | Grand Canyon Education | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.4% | 8.5% | -24.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.7% | 13.7% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.8% | 5.8% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.6% | 3.6% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.4% | 18.4% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.9% | 11.9% | -1.6% |
| 10312021 | LOPE | Grand Canyon Education | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 20.4% | 26.3% | -11.9% |
| 09302020 | LOPE | Grand Canyon Education | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 34.0% | 10.0% | -3.1% |
| 01312020 | LOPE | Grand Canyon Education | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.4% | 8.5% | -24.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Grand Canyon Education
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 80.42 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.9 |
| Rev LTM | 1,256 |
| Op Inc LTM | 297 |
| FCF LTM | 242 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 223 |
| CFO LTM | 279 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 262 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 12.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 19.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 20.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 17.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.9 |
| P/S | 2.0 |
| P/EBIT | 10.0 |
| P/E | 14.4 |
| P/CFO | 9.6 |
| Total Yield | 9.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.1% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -20.9% |
| 6M Rtn | -12.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 1.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 107.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -23.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -26.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -13.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 33.1% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2025 | -6.3% | -4.7% | -15.4% |
| 8/6/2025 | 13.2% | 15.1% | 18.7% |
| 5/6/2025 | 4.6% | 5.2% | 2.7% |
| 2/19/2025 | 1.8% | -2.5% | -7.6% |
| 11/6/2024 | 2.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% |
| 8/6/2024 | -3.5% | -3.0% | -3.6% |
| 5/7/2024 | 5.2% | 3.4% | 3.1% |
| 2/13/2024 | 1.8% | -1.1% | 1.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 12 | 14 |
| # Negative | 9 | 12 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.6% |
| Median Negative | -5.4% | -5.4% | -12.9% |
| Max Positive | 14.9% | 16.1% | 26.5% |
| Max Negative | -16.0% | -12.3% | -29.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2132024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2162023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2162022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| FinViz |