Grand Canyon Education (LOPE)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $153.77 | Market Cap: $4.3 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Education Services
Grand Canyon Education (LOPE)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $153.77Market Cap: $4.3 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Education Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 27% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -38%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -34% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 5.6x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Education. Themes include Online Education Platforms, Educational Technology Integration, and Workforce-Oriented Education. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 27% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Education. Themes include Online Education Platforms, Educational Technology Integration, and Workforce-Oriented Education. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -38%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -34% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 5.6x |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
LOPE Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) experienced a notable stock decline of approximately 23.7% in the period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, driven by several key factors.
1. Significant Miss in Q3 2025 GAAP Earnings Per Share. Grand Canyon Education's GAAP profit of $0.58 per share for the third quarter of 2025 was significantly below analysts' consensus estimates of $1.72, representing a 66.3% miss. The full-year EPS guidance also missed analyst estimates by 12.8%.
2. Decline in Operating Margin. The company's operating margin for the third quarter of 2025 sharply decreased to 6.9%, a considerable drop from 20.2% in the same period of the previous year. This indicated reduced profitability and operational efficiency.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LOPE Return | -3% | -8% | 23% | 25% | 24% | -4% | 64% |
| Peers Return | 16% | 1% | -15% | 7% | 12% | -2% | 16% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LOPE Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 58% | 58% | 42% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 28% | 22% | 22% | 32% | 32% | 28% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LOPE Max Drawdown | -38% | -25% | -9% | -5% | -8% | -5% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -26% | -4% | -29% | -17% | -18% | -12% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GHC, ATGE, FCHL, GV, MH. See LOPE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LOPE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -39.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 405 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -39.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 75 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -35.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1443 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -35.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 333 days | 1480 days |
Compare to GHC, ATGE, FCHL, GV, MH
In The Past
Grand Canyon Education's stock fell -39.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/16/2021. A -39.1% loss requires a 64.3% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to LOPE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 10312021 | LOPE | Grand Canyon Education | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 20.4% | 26.3% | -11.9% |
| 09302020 | LOPE | Grand Canyon Education | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 34.0% | 10.0% | -3.1% |
| 01312020 | LOPE | Grand Canyon Education | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.4% | 8.5% | -24.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 10312021 | LOPE | Grand Canyon Education | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 20.4% | 26.3% | -11.9% |
| 09302020 | LOPE | Grand Canyon Education | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 34.0% | 10.0% | -3.1% |
| 01312020 | LOPE | Grand Canyon Education | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.4% | 8.5% | -24.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Grand Canyon Education
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 55.81 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.3 |
| Rev LTM | 1,891 |
| Op Inc LTM | 291 |
| FCF LTM | 323 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 243 |
| CFO LTM | 379 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 288 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 15.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 20.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 17.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.3 |
| P/S | 3.0 |
| P/EBIT | 15.5 |
| P/E | 22.1 |
| P/CFO | 14.7 |
| Total Yield | 4.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.6% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -3.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -4.5% |
| 6M Rtn | -24.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 1.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 64.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -18.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -38.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -12.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -14.3% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2132024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2162023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2162022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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