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Grand Canyon Education (LOPE)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $153.77 | Market Cap: $4.3 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Education Services

Grand Canyon Education (LOPE)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $153.77
Market Cap: $4.3 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Education Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 27%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -38%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -34%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 5.6x
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 30%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Education. Themes include Online Education Platforms, Educational Technology Integration, and Workforce-Oriented Education.
  
0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 27%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 30%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Education. Themes include Online Education Platforms, Educational Technology Integration, and Workforce-Oriented Education.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -38%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -34%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 5.6x

Valuation, Metrics & Events

LOPE Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) experienced a notable stock decline of approximately 23.7% in the period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, driven by several key factors.

1. Significant Miss in Q3 2025 GAAP Earnings Per Share. Grand Canyon Education's GAAP profit of $0.58 per share for the third quarter of 2025 was significantly below analysts' consensus estimates of $1.72, representing a 66.3% miss. The full-year EPS guidance also missed analyst estimates by 12.8%.

2. Decline in Operating Margin. The company's operating margin for the third quarter of 2025 sharply decreased to 6.9%, a considerable drop from 20.2% in the same period of the previous year. This indicated reduced profitability and operational efficiency.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
LOPE Return-3%-8%23%25%24%-4%64%
Peers Return16%1%-15%7%12%-2%16%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
LOPE Win Rate50%42%58%58%42%60% 
Peers Win Rate28%22%22%32%32%28% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
LOPE Max Drawdown-38%-25%-9%-5%-8%-5% 
Peers Max Drawdown-26%-4%-29%-17%-18%-12% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GHC, ATGE, FCHL, GV, MH. See LOPE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventLOPES&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-39.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven64.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven405 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-39.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven64.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven75 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-35.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven55.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1443 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-35.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven55.4%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven333 days1480 days

Compare to GHC, ATGE, FCHL, GV, MH


In The Past

Grand Canyon Education's stock fell -39.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/16/2021. A -39.1% loss requires a 64.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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Asset Allocation

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About Grand Canyon Education (LOPE)

Better Bets than Grand Canyon Education (LOPE)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to LOPE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
LOPE_10312021_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312021LOPEGrand Canyon EducationDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
20.4%26.3%-11.9%
LOPE_9302020_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302020LOPEGrand Canyon EducationDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
34.0%10.0%-3.1%
LOPE_1312020_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield01312020LOPEGrand Canyon EducationDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.4%8.5%-24.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
LOPE_10312021_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312021LOPEGrand Canyon EducationDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
20.4%26.3%-11.9%
LOPE_9302020_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302020LOPEGrand Canyon EducationDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
34.0%10.0%-3.1%
LOPE_1312020_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield01312020LOPEGrand Canyon EducationDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.4%8.5%-24.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Grand Canyon Education

Peers to compare with:

Financials

LOPEGHCATGEFCHLGVMHMedian
NameGrand Ca.Graham Adtalem .Fitness .VisionaryMcGraw H. 
Mkt Price153.721,108.9594.350.341.4717.2755.81
Mkt Cap4.34.83.4---4.3
Rev LTM1,0914,9061,833--1,9481,891
Op Inc LTM297286358--224291
FCF LTM242361323---323
FCF 3Y Avg223256243---243
CFO LTM279435379---379
CFO 3Y Avg262339288---288

Growth & Margins

LOPEGHCATGEFCHLGVMHMedian
NameGrand Ca.Graham Adtalem .Fitness .VisionaryMcGraw H. 
Rev Chg LTM7.0%4.1%12.2%--13.3%9.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg6.5%9.7%8.2%---8.2%
Rev Chg Q9.6%5.9%10.8%--27.8%10.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.1%1.5%2.5%--6.4%2.3%
Op Mgn LTM27.2%5.8%19.5%--11.5%15.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg26.6%5.0%17.1%--6.2%11.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.1%-0.3%0.3%--4.4%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM25.6%8.9%20.7%---20.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg25.8%7.2%17.3%---17.3%
FCF/Rev LTM22.2%7.4%17.6%---17.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg21.8%5.4%14.5%---14.5%

Valuation

LOPEGHCATGEFCHLGVMHMedian
NameGrand Ca.Graham Adtalem .Fitness .VisionaryMcGraw H. 
Mkt Cap4.34.83.4---4.3
P/S5.61.03.0---3.0
P/EBIT19.24.215.5---15.5
P/E28.87.022.1---22.1
P/CFO21.811.714.7---14.7
Total Yield3.5%14.7%4.5%---4.5%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.3%0.0%---0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg5.1%6.6%7.9%---6.6%
D/E0.00.20.1---0.1
Net D/E-0.0-0.00.1----0.0

Returns

LOPEGHCATGEFCHLGVMHMedian
NameGrand Ca.Graham Adtalem .Fitness .VisionaryMcGraw H. 
1M Rtn-16.1%7.0%-1.3%-25.0%-5.2%58.4%-3.2%
3M Rtn-25.2%1.0%-29.8%--4.5%15.8%-4.5%
6M Rtn-21.1%16.4%-27.0%--31.3%--24.1%
12M Rtn-7.6%18.1%3.9%--0.7%-1.6%
3Y Rtn40.6%87.6%133.4%--85.8%-64.1%
1M Excs Rtn-16.1%7.0%-1.3%-25.0%-5.1%58.5%-3.2%
3M Excs Rtn-30.4%-6.9%-35.3%-97.3%-6.0%11.2%-18.6%
6M Excs Rtn-35.8%1.6%-41.8%--46.0%--38.8%
12M Excs Rtn-20.2%6.5%-10.3%--14.8%--12.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-33.7%5.2%59.1%--158.0%--14.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Service revenue961911897844779
Total961911897844779


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity541,873
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202568.1%
Average Daily Volume534,774
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.01
Basic Shares Quantity27,740,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024219202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241106202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023213202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023502202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022216202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221027202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022504202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021216202210-K 12/31/2021