Grand Canyon Education (LOPE)
Market Price (5/22/2026): $156.95 | Market Cap: $4.2 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Education Services
Grand Canyon Education (LOPE)
Market Price (5/22/2026): $156.95Market Cap: $4.2 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Education Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.2%, FCF Yield is 6.2% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 28% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Education. Themes include Online Education Platforms, Educational Technology Integration, and Workforce-Oriented Education. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -32%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -37% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 3.7x Key risksLOPE key risks include [1] intense legal and regulatory scrutiny from federal agencies over its advertising practices and nonprofit status claims, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.2%, FCF Yield is 6.2% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 28% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Education. Themes include Online Education Platforms, Educational Technology Integration, and Workforce-Oriented Education. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -32%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -37% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 3.7x |
| Key risksLOPE key risks include [1] intense legal and regulatory scrutiny from federal agencies over its advertising practices and nonprofit status claims, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Declining Revenue Per Student and Shifting Enrollment Mix.
Grand Canyon Education experienced a slight decrease in revenue per student, a trend highlighted in both the fourth quarter 2025 and first quarter 2026 earnings reports. This decline was primarily attributed to contract modifications with some university partners, which reduced the revenue share percentage, and a strategic shift in enrollment mix towards online students who typically have a slightly lower net tuition rate.
2. Increased Effective Tax Rate.
The company's effective tax rate for the first quarter of 2026 rose to 23.5%, up from 21.6% in the same period of 2025. This increase was primarily driven by higher state taxes and a decrease in excess tax benefits, directly impacting the company's net income.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -9.8% change in LOPE stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/21/2026 was primarily driven by a -16.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 173.84 | 156.80 | -9.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,091 | 1,126 | 3.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 19.4% | 19.5% | 0.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 22.8 | 19.1 | -16.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 28 | 27 | 3.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -9.8% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LOPE | -9.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.6% | 20.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | -1.8% | 24.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -16.7% change in LOPE stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/21/2026 was primarily driven by a -14.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 188.30 | 156.80 | -16.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,068 | 1,126 | 5.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 22.2% | 19.5% | -11.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 22.3 | 19.1 | -14.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 28 | 27 | 4.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -16.7% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LOPE | -16.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.5% | 18.2% |
| Sector (XLY) | -0.7% | 24.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -12.1% change in LOPE stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/21/2026 was primarily driven by a -15.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 178.37 | 156.80 | -12.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,033 | 1,126 | 9.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 21.9% | 19.5% | -10.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 22.6 | 19.1 | -15.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 29 | 27 | 7.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -12.1% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LOPE | -12.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 35.5% | 13.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | 21.3% | 16.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 32.1% change in LOPE stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 23.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 118.70 | 156.80 | 32.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 911 | 1,126 | 23.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 20.3% | 19.5% | -3.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.7 | 19.1 | -3.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 31 | 27 | 14.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 32.1% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LOPE | 32.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 85.6% | 33.5% |
| Sector (XLY) | 64.5% | 32.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LOPE Return | -8% | 23% | 25% | 24% | 2% | -5% | 71% |
| Peers Return | 5% | 15% | 36% | 37% | -2% | 10% | 142% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 98% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LOPE Win Rate | 42% | 58% | 58% | 42% | 58% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 43% | 53% | 55% | 55% | 53% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LOPE Max Drawdown | -39% | -22% | -16% | -15% | -32% | -15% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -30% | -24% | -22% | -20% | -34% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: LOPE, STRA, PRDO, LRN, GHC. See LOPE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/21/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LOPE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -11.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 24 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -12.9% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 69 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -10.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 14 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -31.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 42 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -20.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.9% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 59 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -14.9% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.5% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 13 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Grand Canyon Education's stock fell -11.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 13.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
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| Event | LOPE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -31.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 42 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -20.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.9% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 59 days | 105 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -22.0% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.2% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 62 days | 15 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -21.1% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.7% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 953 days | 125 days |
In The Past
Grand Canyon Education's stock fell -11.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 13.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Grand Canyon Education (LOPE)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-2 brief analogies for Grand Canyon Education (LOPE):
- Grand Canyon Education is like Accenture for universities, providing a wide array of operational, technological, and marketing services to educational institutions.
- It's similar to IBM Consulting for higher education, handling everything from curriculum development and digital marketing to back-office support for colleges.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Technology Services: Grand Canyon Education provides technology infrastructure and support, including learning management systems and internal administrative tools, for universities.
- Academic Services: The company offers services related to program and curriculum development, faculty training, class scheduling, and management of lab sites.
- Counseling Services: This includes support for admissions, financial aid, and various field experience and other student counseling needs.
- Marketing and Communication Services: Grand Canyon Education provides comprehensive marketing support, from lead acquisition and digital strategy to brand identity and market research.
- Back-Office Services: The company handles essential administrative functions such as finance, accounting, human resources, audit, and procurement for educational institutions.
- Healthcare Education Program Support: Through its subsidiary Orbis Education Services, LOPE supports the development and operation of healthcare education programs for universities.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```htmlGrand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE) sells primarily to other companies, specifically colleges and universities.
Its major customers are:
- Colleges and universities in the United States, to which it provides a range of education services including technology, academic, counseling, marketing, and back-office services.
- Through its subsidiary Orbis Education Services, LLC, it supports healthcare education programs for 27 different universities.
The specific names of these customer universities are not provided in the company description, and as educational institutions, they do not trade on public stock exchanges, therefore do not have stock symbols.
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Brian E. Mueller, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board
Brian E. Mueller has served as Chief Executive Officer of Grand Canyon Education since July 1, 2008, a director since March 2009, and Chairman of the Board since January 2017. Since July 1, 2018, Mr. Mueller has also served as the President of Grand Canyon University, an independent non-profit Arizona corporation that is a significant university partner to GCE. From 2012 to 2018, Mr. Mueller served as the President of Grand Canyon University when it was owned and operated by the Company. Prior to Grand Canyon Education, from 1987 to 2008, Mr. Mueller was employed by Apollo Education Group, Inc., the parent company of the University of Phoenix, serving as its President and a Director from January 2006 to June 2008. He also held positions as Chief Operating Officer of Apollo Education Group, Inc., and Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, and Senior Vice President of the University of Phoenix Online. Mr. Mueller was a professor at Concordia University from 1983 to 1987.
Daniel E. Bachus, Chief Financial Officer
Daniel E. Bachus has served as Chief Financial Officer of Grand Canyon Education since July 2008. He also serves as the Principal Accounting Officer for Grand Canyon Education, Inc. and Chief Finance Officer at Grand Canyon University. From January 2007 to June 2008, Mr. Bachus was the Chief Financial Officer for Loreto Bay Company, a real estate developer. From 2000 to 2006, he served as Chief Accounting Officer and Controller of Apollo Education Group, Inc. Before that, from 1992 to 2000, Mr. Bachus was an Audit Senior Manager at Deloitte & Touche LLP.
Dr. W. Stan Meyer, Chief Operating Officer
Dr. W. Stan Meyer has served as Chief Operating Officer of Grand Canyon Education since July 26, 2012, having previously served as Executive Vice President from June 2008 to July 2012. From August 2002 to June 2008, Dr. Meyer was employed by Apollo Education Group, Inc., serving as its Executive Vice President of marketing and enrollment from June 2006 to June 2008. He also held roles as a regional vice president of the University of Phoenix Online and division director of Axia College and the School of Advanced Studies. From 1983 to 2002, Dr. Meyer held several positions with the Concordia University system, including director of operations for Concordia University's education network.
Dilek Marsh, Chief Technology Officer
Dilek Marsh has served as Chief Technology Officer at Grand Canyon Education since July 2021, having previously served as Chief Data Officer since July 2018, Executive Vice President since July 2012, and Senior Vice President since August 2008. Ms. Marsh has over 20 years of experience in higher education and has served in information technology roles since 1999, including software development project management, business process design, and business analytics.
Kathy J. Claypatch, Chief Information Officer
Kathy J. Claypatch has served as Chief Information Officer since July 2021, having previously held the position of Chief Technology Officer beginning in October 2012. From 2006 to 2012, Ms. Claypatch worked in the financial industry, serving as the Chief Information Officer for Apriva and Vice President of Information Technology for TSYS Acquiring Solutions. From 2002 to 2006, she worked in higher education at Apollo Education Group, Inc., where she was responsible for growing the information technology infrastructure to support the online education environment and its rapid growth.
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Here are the key risks to Grand Canyon Education (LOPE):
- Regulatory and Legal Scrutiny: Grand Canyon Education operates in the heavily regulated for-profit higher education sector, which faces intense government interference and legal challenges. The Biden administration's reintroduction of the Gainful Employment (GE) rule poses a significant threat, as it could impact the eligibility of students in certain programs for federal student loans if graduates incur excessive debt or earn insufficient income. The company is also embroiled in ongoing legal battles, including a prominent dispute between its primary partner, Grand Canyon University (GCU), and the U.S. Department of Education (DOE) over GCU's non-profit status. Additionally, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has sued GCU alleging deceptive marketing practices and misrepresentation of doctoral program costs. Grand Canyon Education itself is a party to legal proceedings, including a "qui tam" lawsuit regarding compensation practices and a civil RICO class action. Adverse outcomes from these legal and regulatory actions, including potential fines or restrictions on federal student aid, could severely impact the company's financial performance and operational model.
- High Dependence on Grand Canyon University (GCU): Grand Canyon Education has a substantial concentration risk due to its significant reliance on Grand Canyon University (GCU) for a vast majority of its revenue. As of June 30, 2025, 96.7% of GCE's total student enrollments were attributed to GCU, and for the three months ended March 31, 2025, GCU generated 90.4% of LOPE's service revenue. This high level of dependency means that any operational issues, declines in student enrollment, or negative regulatory actions directly affecting GCU could have a material adverse effect on Grand Canyon Education's financial stability and business viability. The master services agreement with GCU, while providing a stable revenue stream, also exposes GCE to the risk that this agreement could be terminated or renegotiated under regulatory pressure, potentially eliminating GCE's primary source of income.
- Competitive Pressures and Online Program Management (OPM) Market Dynamics: The education services and Online Program Management (OPM) markets are highly competitive and experiencing significant challenges. The OPM sector has seen a sharp decline in new partnerships and a rise in contract terminations, with a dramatic reduction in funding for OPM providers. Grand Canyon Education faces competition from traditional institutions, other online program managers, and emerging low-cost or free digital education alternatives. This intense competition can lead to pricing pressures and a potential slowdown in enrollment growth. The company has also observed a slight decline in revenue per student due to shifts towards online students with lower net tuition rates and contract modifications with some partners. Sustaining growth requires continuous innovation and value-added services in this evolving market.
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```htmlThe rapid development and increasing accessibility of AI-powered tools that enable universities to perform functions such as lead acquisition, curriculum development, and student support services more efficiently in-house, thereby reducing the necessity for comprehensive external education service providers like Grand Canyon Education.
```AI Analysis | Feedback
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE) operates within several addressable markets related to education services, primarily in the United States. The company provides a range of services including technology, academic, counseling, marketing, and back-office support, as well as specialized healthcare education programs.
The addressable markets for Grand Canyon Education's main products and services are as follows:
- Education Services to Colleges and Universities: The U.S. higher education market was valued at approximately USD 218.27 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 668.33 billion by 2033, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.24% from 2024 to 2033.
- Technology Services: This includes learning management systems, internal administration, infrastructure, and support services.
- The U.S. education technology (EdTech) market was valued at USD 87.4 billion in 2024 and is expected to increase to USD 197.3 billion by 2032, advancing at a CAGR of 10.9% during 2025–2032.
- Specifically, the U.S. learning management systems (LMS) market generated approximately USD 7,946.5 million in revenue in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 27,795.5 million by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 17% from 2026 to 2033.
- Academic Services: This encompasses program and curriculum development, faculty training, class scheduling, and skills and simulation lab sites. The total addressable market for U.S. Educational Support Services is estimated to be approximately USD 20 billion, with a CAGR of 5.5%.
- Counseling Services and Support: This includes admission, financial aid, and field experience and other counseling services. The independent college counseling industry in the U.S. is a USD 3 billion market.
- Marketing and Communication Services: The global education marketing services market is valued at USD 1.07 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 1.68 billion by 2035, growing at a CAGR of approximately 6.7% from 2026 to 2035. North America is expected to lead this market.
- Back-Office Services: This covers finance and accounting, human resources, audit, and procurement services. The global back-office support business process outsourcing market was valued at USD 13,116.1 million in 2025 and is estimated to grow to USD 26,230.4 million by 2033, with North America being the largest revenue-generating market.
- Healthcare Education Programs Support (through Orbis Education Services): The U.S. healthcare education market is expected to reach USD 61.44 billion by 2028, growing from USD 39.24 billion in 2023 at a CAGR of 9.4%.
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Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives:
- Continued Enrollment Growth in Online and Hybrid Programs: The company anticipates sustained growth in both its online and hybrid program enrollments. Management projects mid- to high-single-digit growth in new online enrollments, and hybrid campus enrollment has shown significant increases. This growth is a consistent theme across recent earnings reports, with increases in overall student numbers at Grand Canyon University (GCU) and other partner institutions.
- Expansion of Healthcare Education Programs via Orbis Education: Grand Canyon Education's subsidiary, Orbis Education Services, LLC, is a significant driver, focusing on expanding pre-licensure healthcare programs, particularly accelerated Bachelor of Science in Nursing (ABSN) and occupational therapy assistant programs. Orbis aims to grow to approximately 70 locations within the next five years, significantly expanding its presence from the current 26 states. These programs are noted for generating significantly higher revenue per student compared to other offerings.
- Development of New Program Offerings and Strategic Corporate Partnerships: The company plans selective program expansion, including new graduate nursing and occupational therapy offerings, to boost overall student numbers. Additionally, robust corporate partnerships are a key contributor to online enrollment growth, with approximately one-third of new online students originating from employer relationships.
- Increased Revenue per Student, particularly from High-Revenue Hybrid ABSN Programs: Grand Canyon Education has observed and expects continued growth in revenue per student. This increase is primarily attributed to the expansion of hybrid ABSN programs, which typically yield a significantly higher revenue per student.
- Effective Digital Marketing and Recruitment Strategies: Management highlights targeted investments in marketing and recruitment as crucial for performance. The shift to digital media for ground campus recruitment has led to improved application and registration rates, indicating that continued optimization of these strategies will contribute to future enrollment and, consequently, revenue growth.
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Share Repurchases
- In December 2025, Grand Canyon Education's Board of Directors approved a $300 million increase to its existing stock repurchase program, bringing the total authorized amount to $2.545 billion.
- The company repurchased 605,730 shares of its common stock in 2025 at a cost of approximately $100 million.
- As of February 18, 2026, approximately $284.6 million remained available under the share repurchase authorization, which is set to expire on March 1, 2027.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for 2025 were approximately $7.6 million, representing 2.5% of service revenue.
- Grand Canyon Education anticipates capital expenditures for 2026 to be between $30 million and $35 million.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures includes new off-campus classroom and laboratory sites, computer equipment, internal use software projects, and furniture and equipment to support increasing employee headcount and hybrid education model expansion.
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| 10312021 | LOPE | Grand Canyon Education | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 20.4% | 26.3% | -11.9% |
| 09302020 | LOPE | Grand Canyon Education | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 34.0% | 10.0% | -3.1% |
| 01312020 | LOPE | Grand Canyon Education | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.4% | 8.5% | -24.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 87.65 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.7 |
| Rev LTM | 1,271 |
| Op Inc LTM | 277 |
| FCF LTM | 260 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 238 |
| CFO LTM | 294 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 277 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 10.7% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 15.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 18.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 15.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 17.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.7 |
| P/S | 1.5 |
| P/Op Inc | 9.0 |
| P/EBIT | 9.0 |
| P/E | 13.1 |
| P/CFO | 9.2 |
| Total Yield | 8.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.6% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -5.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 4.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 4.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -8.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 91.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -10.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -9.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -35.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 13.1% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $156.80 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 4.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 11/20/2008 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -28.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $166.56 | $178.90 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | -5.9% | -12.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 25.6% | 31.3% |
| Downside Capture | 29.82 | 26.00 |
| Upside Capture | 25.69 | -7.05 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 17.4% | 12.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.60 | 0.35 | 0.58 | 0.44 | 0.38 | 0.63 |
| Up Beta | 0.32 | 0.07 | -0.05 | 0.24 | 0.54 | 0.76 |
| Down Beta | 1.26 | -0.17 | -0.50 | 0.33 | 0.57 | 0.75 |
| Up Capture | 34% | 63% | 94% | 22% | 10% | 20% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 24 | 37 | 66 | 131 | 398 |
| Down Capture | 477% | 59% | 130% | 87% | 41% | 72% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 19 | 27 | 59 | 119 | 353 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LOPE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOPE | -19.3% | 31.3% | -0.67 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 10.8% | 18.3% | 0.42 | 15.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 26.8% | 12.1% | 1.67 | 12.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 37.5% | 26.8% | 1.16 | -3.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 43.5% | 18.6% | 1.80 | -6.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.0% | 13.4% | 0.59 | 21.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -27.2% | 41.8% | -0.65 | 2.9% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LOPE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOPE | 10.7% | 29.1% | 0.37 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 7.7% | 23.7% | 0.28 | 32.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.8% | 17.0% | 0.64 | 33.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.3% | 18.0% | 0.87 | 4.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.8% | 19.4% | 0.44 | 4.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.8% | 18.8% | 0.10 | 29.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 9.3% | 55.6% | 0.37 | 12.0% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LOPE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOPE | 14.4% | 30.8% | 0.50 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.8% | 22.0% | 0.53 | 35.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.5% | 17.9% | 0.74 | 38.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.2% | 16.0% | 0.68 | 2.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.8% | 17.9% | 0.35 | 11.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 31.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.3% | 66.9% | 1.06 | 8.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/30/2026 | -3.3% | -2.7% | |
| 2/18/2026 | -7.9% | -6.5% | -2.0% |
| 11/5/2025 | -6.3% | -4.7% | -15.4% |
| 8/6/2025 | 13.2% | 15.1% | 18.7% |
| 5/6/2025 | 4.6% | 5.2% | 2.7% |
| 2/19/2025 | 1.8% | -2.5% | -7.6% |
| 11/6/2024 | 2.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% |
| 8/6/2024 | -3.5% | -3.0% | -3.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 12 | 14 |
| # Negative | 10 | 13 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.6% |
| Median Negative | -4.9% | -4.7% | -9.4% |
| Max Positive | 14.9% | 16.1% | 26.5% |
| Max Negative | -16.0% | -12.3% | -16.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/13/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/16/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/18/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | 307.00 Mil | 307.50 Mil | 308.00 Mil | 0 | Same New | Guidance: 307.50 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Operating Margin | 30.0% | 30.15% | 30.3% | -15.0% | -5.3% | Lower New | Guidance: 35.45% for Q4 2025 |
| Q1 2026 EPS | 2.7 | 2.71 | 2.73 | -13.1% | Lower New | Guidance: 3.12 for Q4 2025 | |
| Q2 2026 Revenue | 260.00 Mil | 262.00 Mil | 264.00 Mil | -14.8% | Lower New | Guidance: 307.50 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Operating Margin | 20.1% | 20.7% | 21.3% | -31.3% | -9.4% | Lower New | Guidance: 30.15% for Q1 2026 |
| Q2 2026 EPS | 1.56 | 1.62 | 1.68 | -40.3% | Lower New | Guidance: 2.71 for Q1 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Revenue | 271.50 Mil | 275.00 Mil | 278.50 Mil | 5.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 262.00 Mil for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Operating Margin | 21.0% | 22.0% | 23.0% | 6.3% | 1.3% | Higher New | Guidance: 20.7% for Q2 2026 |
| Q3 2026 EPS | 1.72 | 1.81 | 1.91 | 12.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.62 for Q2 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Revenue | 329.00 Mil | 333.75 Mil | 338.50 Mil | 21.4% | Higher New | Guidance: 275.00 Mil for Q3 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Operating Margin | 36.4% | 37.3% | 38.2% | 69.6% | 15.3% | Higher New | Guidance: 22.0% for Q3 2026 |
| Q4 2026 EPS | 3.57 | 3.71 | 3.85 | 104.4% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.81 for Q3 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue | 1.17 Bil | 1.18 Bil | 1.19 Bil | 6.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.11 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Operating Margin | 27.5% | 28.15% | 28.8% | 16.6% | 4.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 24.15% for 2025 |
| 2026 EPS | 9.55 | 9.86 | 10.2 | 27.7% | Higher New | Guidance: 7.71 for 2025 | |
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/5/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Service Revenue | 305.00 Mil | 307.50 Mil | 310.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 307.50 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 Operating Margin | 35.1% | 35.45% | 35.8% | 0 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 35.45% for Q4 2025 |
| Q4 2025 Diluted EPS | 3.07 | 3.12 | 3.18 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.12 for Q4 2025 | |
| 2025 Service Revenue | 1.10 Bil | 1.11 Bil | 1.11 Bil | 0.2% | Raised | Guidance: 1.10 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Operating Margin | 24.0% | 24.15% | 24.3% | -12.8% | -3.6% | Lowered | Guidance: 27.7% for 2025 |
| 2025 Diluted EPS | 7.66 | 7.71 | 7.77 | -12.6% | Lowered | Guidance: 8.82 for 2025 | |
LOPE Trade Sentinel
AVOID (Score 1-2)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
HARD_NO: Insufficient data to perform analysis. A conviction score of 1 is assigned as no meaningful investment assessment can be made based on the provided tool code which lacks actual data.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Information not availableArchetype and reasoning cannot be determined from the provided tool code.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Detailed investment thesis requires data from search results, which were not provided.
- No supporting evidence from tool code.
PRIMARY RISK
Primary risk analysis requires data from search results, which were not provided.
- No supporting evidence from tool code.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| No specific KPI identified | N/A | KPI watchlist requires detailed analysis not present in tool code. |
The Post-Regulatory Re-Rating vs. Decelerating Growth
BULL VIEW
The primary investment overhang is removed. Strong free cash flow and a clean balance sheet, focused on a durable growth market, now warrant a premium valuation.
CORE TENSION
With the DoE now recognizing GCU's non-profit status, the debate shifts from existential risk to valuation. Can operational execution justify a re-rating, or does slowing growth cap the upside?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Recent news confirms the DoE has affirmed GCU's non-profit status, resolving the primary bear case. However, Q3 2025 results showed online enrollment growth decelerated to 9.6% from 10.1% in Q2.
BEAR VIEW
The regulatory good news is priced in. Bears now focus on the tangible deceleration in online enrollment growth (10.1% in Q2 to 9.6% in Q3) as a fundamental headwind.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
February 18, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings & FY26 Guidance Watch: Q4 and guided FY26 online enrollment growth rate. A stabilization or re-acceleration above 9.5% is critical. |
Next 3 Months | 10-K Filing: Details on GCU Secured Note Refinancing Watch: Disclosure of new interest rate and covenants. Any terms suggesting financial strain on GCU would be negative. |
Next 3-6 Months | AI-Powered Competitor Launch or Partnership Watch: Announcement of a major university partnering with a scaled, AI-native learning platform for core degree programs. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Aug 6, 2025 | Q2 2025 Earnings & FTC Lawsuit Dropped Details: Reported strong Q2 results with 8.8% revenue growth and 10.3% partner enrollment growth. Around this time, the FTC also dropped its lawsuit, further boosting sentiment. | Surged +13.2% $172.05 -> $194.68 |
Aug 25, 2025 | GCU Projects Record Fall Enrollment Details: GCU announced projections for a record 133,000 students for the 2025-26 academic year, an 8% increase. The positive strategic news saw a muted immediate stock reaction. | Flat (-0.2%) $203.39 -> $203.07 |
Oct 31, 2025 | Announces $35M Litigation Settlement Details: The company disclosed a $35 million litigation reserve related to a lawsuit over its enrollment counselor compensation plan. The stock dropped sharply on the unexpected financial impact. | Plummeted -11.4% $206.79 -> $183.26 |
Nov 5, 2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings Release Details: LOPE beat revenue forecasts but the stock fell as investors focused on a slight deceleration in year-over-year online enrollment growth and declining revenue per student. | Plummeted -6.3% $178.28 -> $167.05 |
Dec 16, 2025 | Department of Education Affirms GCU's Non-Profit Status Details: The DoE officially affirmed the non-profit status of GCU, removing the largest regulatory overhang and a core tenet of the bear thesis. The stock reacted positively to the de-risking event. | Rose significantly by 2.4% $161.36 -> $165.23 |
Jan 7, 2026 | GCU Announces 18th Consecutive Tuition Freeze Details: GCU announced it would freeze tuition for the 2026-27 academic year, reinforcing its affordable, volume-driven growth strategy. The stock saw a slight pullback despite the positive strategic news. | Slight -1.4% pullback $170.97 -> $168.51 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL
Volatility is moderate (2.6x S&P) and compressing. While visibility is high, the Neutral sentiment from decelerating growth prevents a max position. A Normal size balances elite execution with remaining operational questions.
Diversification Alternatives
LRN
SECTORUnlike LOPE's concentrated university partner risk, LRN has a diversified customer base of K-12 schools, avoiding the specific Title IV higher-ed regulatory battles.
COUR
SECTORAvoids LOPE's single-partner risk with a highly diversified base of university and corporate partners. Stronger brand perception among 'Aspirational Professionals'.
Grand Canyon Education is a scaled education services provider whose stable, high-margin revenue is almost entirely dependent on a single customer relationship, Grand Canyon University (GCU), making its primary risk regulatory scrutiny of the OPM (Online Program Management) model.
Filter all news through the lens of the GCE-GCU relationship, student enrollment growth, and regulatory threats to the revenue-share model.
Sustained partner enrollment growth >7% YoY; successful addition of new, material university partners; any legal or regulatory victories that validate the Master Services Agreement structure; guidance increases.
Department of Education or other regulatory actions that invalidate or force material changes to the revenue-share model; declining enrollment at GCU or other partners; loss of GCU as a client; guidance reductions.
Minor quarterly fluctuations in revenue per student; short-term changes in on-campus vs. online student mix; general news about the higher education industry without specific regulatory impact on the OPM bundled services model.
Repricing Catalyst
The primary forward catalyst is continued mid-to-high single-digit enrollment growth at its university partners, particularly GCU, which directly drives revenue growth. For FY 2026, the company guides for revenue between $1,167.5M and $1,189.0M, representing ~6.5% YoY growth at the midpoint, driven by expected continued demand for online and hybrid higher education programs.
Education Services for University Partners
$1.1B TTM (100% of Total) · 28.3% MarginWhat It Is
GCE provides a bundled suite of services including marketing, strategic enrollment management, counseling (admissions, financial aid), technology platform (LMS), curriculum development, and faculty services.
Who Pays & How
Grand Canyon University (GCU) is the primary customer, accounting for the vast majority of revenue. GCE receives ~60% of GCU's tuition and fee revenue under a long-term Master Services Agreement. GCU pays for this bundled service to achieve scale in its online and hybrid programs without building out the extensive operational infrastructure itself.
Competition
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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