Grand Canyon Education (LOPE)
Market Price (8/20/2026): $147.0 | Market Cap: $3.8 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Education Services
Grand Canyon Education (LOPE)
Market Price (8/20/2026): $147.0Market Cap: $3.8 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Education Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.8%, FCF Yield is 6.3% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 28% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Education. Themes include Online Education Platforms, Educational Technology Integration, and Workforce-Oriented Education. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -38%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -38% | Key risksLOPE key risks include [1] intense legal and regulatory scrutiny from federal agencies over its advertising practices and nonprofit status claims, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.8%, FCF Yield is 6.3% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 28% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Education. Themes include Online Education Platforms, Educational Technology Integration, and Workforce-Oriented Education. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -38%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -38% |
| Key risksLOPE key risks include [1] intense legal and regulatory scrutiny from federal agencies over its advertising practices and nonprofit status claims, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) stock has lost about 15% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Disappointing Q3 2026 Guidance Dampened Investor Sentiment.
Despite beating Q2 2026 earnings estimates, Grand Canyon Education issued Q3 2026 guidance on July 30, 2026, with projected diluted EPS of $1.74–$1.78 and revenue of $268.5–$270.5 million. These figures were slightly below the consensus estimates of $1.83 EPS and $270.3 million in revenue, leading to a 5.8% drop in shares on the announcement day.
2. Amended Master Services Agreement (MSA) with Grand Canyon University Projected Revenue Reduction.
An amended MSA with Grand Canyon University, effective July 1, 2026, is expected to reduce Grand Canyon Education's annual service revenue by approximately $20 million. While management indicated an "immaterial" impact on operating income (not exceeding $1 million per quarter), the significant top-line reduction contributed to investor apprehension regarding future revenue growth.
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Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) stock has lost about 15% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Disappointing Q3 2026 Guidance Dampened Investor Sentiment.
Despite beating Q2 2026 earnings estimates, Grand Canyon Education issued Q3 2026 guidance on July 30, 2026, with projected diluted EPS of $1.74–$1.78 and revenue of $268.5–$270.5 million. These figures were slightly below the consensus estimates of $1.83 EPS and $270.3 million in revenue, leading to a 5.8% drop in shares on the announcement day.
2. Amended Master Services Agreement (MSA) with Grand Canyon University Projected Revenue Reduction.
An amended MSA with Grand Canyon University, effective July 1, 2026, is expected to reduce Grand Canyon Education's annual service revenue by approximately $20 million. While management indicated an "immaterial" impact on operating income (not exceeding $1 million per quarter), the significant top-line reduction contributed to investor apprehension regarding future revenue growth.
3. Negative Revisions to Analyst Price Targets and Ratings.
Several financial analysts adjusted their outlook for LOPE, reflecting a less optimistic view. For instance, on July 6, 2026, BMO Capital Markets reduced its price target from $198.00 to $185.00. Earlier, on June 9, 2026, Truist Financial set a price objective of $100.00. Additionally, Weiss Ratings downgraded LOPE from a "hold (c+)" to a "hold (c)" on June 25, 2026. These downward revisions signaled declining confidence from the analyst community.
4. Pressures from Declining Online Revenue per Student and Enrollment Trends.
The company anticipates a slight year-over-year decrease in online revenue per student, primarily due to a shift in student mix towards programs with lower net tuition rates. Furthermore, total online enrollment growth faces pressure from increasing graduations and a continued decline in student reentries, suggesting underlying challenges to sustainable organic growth.
5. Lack of Revenue Disclosure in Q1 2026 Earnings Report.
On April 30, 2026, Grand Canyon Education reported Q1 2026 earnings per share of $2.86, surpassing the consensus estimate of $2.8356. However, the company did not disclose revenue figures for the quarter, which led to a 6.23% decline in shares during after-hours trading, indicating investor focus on topline clarity and concerns about broader industry headwinds.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -13.1% change in LOPE stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/19/2026 was primarily driven by a -16.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 8192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 169.07 | 146.92 | -13.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,126 | 1,142 | 1.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 19.5% | 19.6% | 0.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.6 | 17.1 | -16.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 27 | 26 | 2.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -13.1% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 8/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LOPE | -13.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.0% | -25.2% |
| Sector (XLY) | 0.2% | -6.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -15.5% change in LOPE stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/19/2026 was primarily driven by a -24.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 8192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 173.84 | 146.92 | -15.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,091 | 1,142 | 4.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 19.4% | 19.6% | 1.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 22.8 | 17.1 | -24.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 28 | 26 | 6.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -15.5% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 8/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LOPE | -15.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.4% | -1.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | -1.9% | 9.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -12.9% change in LOPE stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/19/2026 was primarily driven by a -17.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 8192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 168.63 | 146.92 | -12.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,048 | 1,142 | 9.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 21.9% | 19.6% | -10.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.7 | 17.1 | -17.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 28 | 26 | 8.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -12.9% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 8/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LOPE | -12.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 22.7% | 1.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | 7.7% | 8.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 35.3% change in LOPE stock from 7/31/2023 to 8/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 24.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 7312023 | 8192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 108.55 | 146.92 | 35.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 917 | 1,142 | 24.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 20.3% | 19.6% | -3.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.8 | 17.1 | -3.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 30 | 26 | 16.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 35.3% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 8/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LOPE | 35.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 73.9% | 28.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | 39.6% | 29.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LOPE Return | -8% | 23% | 25% | 24% | 2% | -12% | 58% |
| Peers Return | 5% | 15% | 36% | 37% | -2% | 8% | 138% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LOPE Win Rate | 42% | 58% | 58% | 42% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 43% | 53% | 55% | 55% | 53% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LOPE Max Drawdown | -39% | -22% | -16% | -15% | -32% | -24% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -30% | -24% | -22% | -20% | -34% | -20% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: LOPE, STRA, PRDO, LRN, GHC. See LOPE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/19/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LOPE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -11.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 24 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -12.9% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 69 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -10.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 14 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -31.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 42 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -20.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.9% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 59 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -14.9% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.5% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 13 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Grand Canyon Education's stock fell -11.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 13.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | LOPE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -31.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 42 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -20.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.9% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 59 days | 105 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -22.0% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.2% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 62 days | 15 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -21.1% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.7% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 953 days | 125 days |
In The Past
Grand Canyon Education's stock fell -11.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 13.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Grand Canyon Education (LOPE)
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE) is a comprehensive education services provider that partners with colleges and universities across the United States. The company's core mission is to empower these institutions by offering a wide array of support services, allowing them to efficiently deliver and manage their academic programs and enhance the overall student experience.
LOPE's extensive service portfolio includes essential technology services such as learning management systems and internal administration support. It also provides critical academic services, encompassing program and curriculum development, faculty training, and class scheduling. Furthermore, the company offers crucial student counseling and support services, including assistance with admissions, financial aid, and field experiences. Beyond these, Grand Canyon Education aids its university partners with marketing and communication strategies, from lead acquisition to brand development, and handles vital back-office functions like finance, human resources, and procurement.
A key component of Grand Canyon Education's business is its subsidiary, Orbis Education Services, LLC. Through Orbis, the company specializes in supporting and expanding healthcare education programs for 27 universities. This specialized focus allows LOPE to play a significant role in developing the next generation of healthcare professionals by providing tailored services for these vital university programs.
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Here are 1-2 brief analogies for Grand Canyon Education (LOPE):
- Grand Canyon Education is like Accenture for universities, providing a wide array of operational, technological, and marketing services to educational institutions.
- It's similar to IBM Consulting for higher education, handling everything from curriculum development and digital marketing to back-office support for colleges.
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- Technology Services: Grand Canyon Education provides technology infrastructure and support, including learning management systems and internal administrative tools, for universities.
- Academic Services: The company offers services related to program and curriculum development, faculty training, class scheduling, and management of lab sites.
- Counseling Services: This includes support for admissions, financial aid, and various field experience and other student counseling needs.
- Marketing and Communication Services: Grand Canyon Education provides comprehensive marketing support, from lead acquisition and digital strategy to brand identity and market research.
- Back-Office Services: The company handles essential administrative functions such as finance, accounting, human resources, audit, and procurement for educational institutions.
- Healthcare Education Program Support: Through its subsidiary Orbis Education Services, LOPE supports the development and operation of healthcare education programs for universities.
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Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE) sells primarily to other companies, specifically colleges and universities.
Its major customers are:
- Colleges and universities in the United States, to which it provides a range of education services including technology, academic, counseling, marketing, and back-office services.
- Through its subsidiary Orbis Education Services, LLC, it supports healthcare education programs for 27 different universities.
The specific names of these customer universities are not provided in the company description, and as educational institutions, they do not trade on public stock exchanges, therefore do not have stock symbols.
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Brian E. Mueller, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board
Brian E. Mueller has served as Chief Executive Officer of Grand Canyon Education since July 1, 2008, a director since March 2009, and Chairman of the Board since January 2017. Since July 1, 2018, Mr. Mueller has also served as the President of Grand Canyon University, an independent non-profit Arizona corporation that is a significant university partner to GCE. From 2012 to 2018, Mr. Mueller served as the President of Grand Canyon University when it was owned and operated by the Company. Prior to Grand Canyon Education, from 1987 to 2008, Mr. Mueller was employed by Apollo Education Group, Inc., the parent company of the University of Phoenix, serving as its President and a Director from January 2006 to June 2008. He also held positions as Chief Operating Officer of Apollo Education Group, Inc., and Chief Executive Officer, Chief Operating Officer, and Senior Vice President of the University of Phoenix Online. Mr. Mueller was a professor at Concordia University from 1983 to 1987.
Daniel E. Bachus, Chief Financial Officer
Daniel E. Bachus has served as Chief Financial Officer of Grand Canyon Education since July 2008. He also serves as the Principal Accounting Officer for Grand Canyon Education, Inc. and Chief Finance Officer at Grand Canyon University. From January 2007 to June 2008, Mr. Bachus was the Chief Financial Officer for Loreto Bay Company, a real estate developer. From 2000 to 2006, he served as Chief Accounting Officer and Controller of Apollo Education Group, Inc. Before that, from 1992 to 2000, Mr. Bachus was an Audit Senior Manager at Deloitte & Touche LLP.
Dr. W. Stan Meyer, Chief Operating Officer
Dr. W. Stan Meyer has served as Chief Operating Officer of Grand Canyon Education since July 26, 2012, having previously served as Executive Vice President from June 2008 to July 2012. From August 2002 to June 2008, Dr. Meyer was employed by Apollo Education Group, Inc., serving as its Executive Vice President of marketing and enrollment from June 2006 to June 2008. He also held roles as a regional vice president of the University of Phoenix Online and division director of Axia College and the School of Advanced Studies. From 1983 to 2002, Dr. Meyer held several positions with the Concordia University system, including director of operations for Concordia University's education network.
Dilek Marsh, Chief Technology Officer
Dilek Marsh has served as Chief Technology Officer at Grand Canyon Education since July 2021, having previously served as Chief Data Officer since July 2018, Executive Vice President since July 2012, and Senior Vice President since August 2008. Ms. Marsh has over 20 years of experience in higher education and has served in information technology roles since 1999, including software development project management, business process design, and business analytics.
Kathy J. Claypatch, Chief Information Officer
Kathy J. Claypatch has served as Chief Information Officer since July 2021, having previously held the position of Chief Technology Officer beginning in October 2012. From 2006 to 2012, Ms. Claypatch worked in the financial industry, serving as the Chief Information Officer for Apriva and Vice President of Information Technology for TSYS Acquiring Solutions. From 2002 to 2006, she worked in higher education at Apollo Education Group, Inc., where she was responsible for growing the information technology infrastructure to support the online education environment and its rapid growth.
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Here are the key risks to Grand Canyon Education (LOPE):
- Regulatory and Legal Scrutiny: Grand Canyon Education operates in the heavily regulated for-profit higher education sector, which faces intense government interference and legal challenges. The Biden administration's reintroduction of the Gainful Employment (GE) rule poses a significant threat, as it could impact the eligibility of students in certain programs for federal student loans if graduates incur excessive debt or earn insufficient income. The company is also embroiled in ongoing legal battles, including a prominent dispute between its primary partner, Grand Canyon University (GCU), and the U.S. Department of Education (DOE) over GCU's non-profit status. Additionally, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has sued GCU alleging deceptive marketing practices and misrepresentation of doctoral program costs. Grand Canyon Education itself is a party to legal proceedings, including a "qui tam" lawsuit regarding compensation practices and a civil RICO class action. Adverse outcomes from these legal and regulatory actions, including potential fines or restrictions on federal student aid, could severely impact the company's financial performance and operational model.
- High Dependence on Grand Canyon University (GCU): Grand Canyon Education has a substantial concentration risk due to its significant reliance on Grand Canyon University (GCU) for a vast majority of its revenue. As of June 30, 2025, 96.7% of GCE's total student enrollments were attributed to GCU, and for the three months ended March 31, 2025, GCU generated 90.4% of LOPE's service revenue. This high level of dependency means that any operational issues, declines in student enrollment, or negative regulatory actions directly affecting GCU could have a material adverse effect on Grand Canyon Education's financial stability and business viability. The master services agreement with GCU, while providing a stable revenue stream, also exposes GCE to the risk that this agreement could be terminated or renegotiated under regulatory pressure, potentially eliminating GCE's primary source of income.
- Competitive Pressures and Online Program Management (OPM) Market Dynamics: The education services and Online Program Management (OPM) markets are highly competitive and experiencing significant challenges. The OPM sector has seen a sharp decline in new partnerships and a rise in contract terminations, with a dramatic reduction in funding for OPM providers. Grand Canyon Education faces competition from traditional institutions, other online program managers, and emerging low-cost or free digital education alternatives. This intense competition can lead to pricing pressures and a potential slowdown in enrollment growth. The company has also observed a slight decline in revenue per student due to shifts towards online students with lower net tuition rates and contract modifications with some partners. Sustaining growth requires continuous innovation and value-added services in this evolving market.
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The rapid development and increasing accessibility of AI-powered tools that enable universities to perform functions such as lead acquisition, curriculum development, and student support services more efficiently in-house, thereby reducing the necessity for comprehensive external education service providers like Grand Canyon Education.
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Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE) operates within several addressable markets related to education services, primarily in the United States. The company provides a range of services including technology, academic, counseling, marketing, and back-office support, as well as specialized healthcare education programs.
The addressable markets for Grand Canyon Education's main products and services are as follows:
- Education Services to Colleges and Universities: The U.S. higher education market was valued at approximately USD 218.27 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 668.33 billion by 2033, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.24% from 2024 to 2033.
- Technology Services: This includes learning management systems, internal administration, infrastructure, and support services.
- The U.S. education technology (EdTech) market was valued at USD 87.4 billion in 2024 and is expected to increase to USD 197.3 billion by 2032, advancing at a CAGR of 10.9% during 2025–2032.
- Specifically, the U.S. learning management systems (LMS) market generated approximately USD 7,946.5 million in revenue in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 27,795.5 million by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 17% from 2026 to 2033.
- Academic Services: This encompasses program and curriculum development, faculty training, class scheduling, and skills and simulation lab sites. The total addressable market for U.S. Educational Support Services is estimated to be approximately USD 20 billion, with a CAGR of 5.5%.
- Counseling Services and Support: This includes admission, financial aid, and field experience and other counseling services. The independent college counseling industry in the U.S. is a USD 3 billion market.
- Marketing and Communication Services: The global education marketing services market is valued at USD 1.07 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 1.68 billion by 2035, growing at a CAGR of approximately 6.7% from 2026 to 2035. North America is expected to lead this market.
- Back-Office Services: This covers finance and accounting, human resources, audit, and procurement services. The global back-office support business process outsourcing market was valued at USD 13,116.1 million in 2025 and is estimated to grow to USD 26,230.4 million by 2033, with North America being the largest revenue-generating market.
- Healthcare Education Programs Support (through Orbis Education Services): The U.S. healthcare education market is expected to reach USD 61.44 billion by 2028, growing from USD 39.24 billion in 2023 at a CAGR of 9.4%.
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Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives:
- Continued Enrollment Growth in Online and Hybrid Programs: The company anticipates sustained growth in both its online and hybrid program enrollments. Management projects mid- to high-single-digit growth in new online enrollments, and hybrid campus enrollment has shown significant increases. This growth is a consistent theme across recent earnings reports, with increases in overall student numbers at Grand Canyon University (GCU) and other partner institutions.
- Expansion of Healthcare Education Programs via Orbis Education: Grand Canyon Education's subsidiary, Orbis Education Services, LLC, is a significant driver, focusing on expanding pre-licensure healthcare programs, particularly accelerated Bachelor of Science in Nursing (ABSN) and occupational therapy assistant programs. Orbis aims to grow to approximately 70 locations within the next five years, significantly expanding its presence from the current 26 states. These programs are noted for generating significantly higher revenue per student compared to other offerings.
- Development of New Program Offerings and Strategic Corporate Partnerships: The company plans selective program expansion, including new graduate nursing and occupational therapy offerings, to boost overall student numbers. Additionally, robust corporate partnerships are a key contributor to online enrollment growth, with approximately one-third of new online students originating from employer relationships.
- Increased Revenue per Student, particularly from High-Revenue Hybrid ABSN Programs: Grand Canyon Education has observed and expects continued growth in revenue per student. This increase is primarily attributed to the expansion of hybrid ABSN programs, which typically yield a significantly higher revenue per student.
- Effective Digital Marketing and Recruitment Strategies: Management highlights targeted investments in marketing and recruitment as crucial for performance. The shift to digital media for ground campus recruitment has led to improved application and registration rates, indicating that continued optimization of these strategies will contribute to future enrollment and, consequently, revenue growth.
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Share Repurchases
- In December 2025, Grand Canyon Education's Board of Directors approved a $300 million increase to its existing stock repurchase program, bringing the total authorized amount to $2.545 billion.
- The company repurchased 605,730 shares of its common stock in 2025 at a cost of approximately $100 million.
- As of February 18, 2026, approximately $284.6 million remained available under the share repurchase authorization, which is set to expire on March 1, 2027.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for 2025 were approximately $7.6 million, representing 2.5% of service revenue.
- Grand Canyon Education anticipates capital expenditures for 2026 to be between $30 million and $35 million.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures includes new off-campus classroom and laboratory sites, computer equipment, internal use software projects, and furniture and equipment to support increasing employee headcount and hybrid education model expansion.
Peer Outperformance in Education Services
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOPE | Grand Canyon Education | 7.2% | 17.1x | -27.6% | 32.4% | 71.4% | — |
| CVSA | Covista | 10.4% | 17.9x | 2.1% | 210.3% | 267.1% | +196pp |
| PRDO | Perdoceo Education | 6.3% | 11.6x | 2.5% | 117.3% | 220.6% | +149pp |
| GHC | Graham | 6.4% | 9.2x | 9.6% | 108.6% | 104.0% | +33pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education Services ← | 14 | -9.6% | 106.8% | 69.8% | LINC 333% · UTI 276% · CVSA 267% |
| Homebuilding | 18 | -0.2% | 34.0% | 55.5% | GRBK 184% · TOL 163% · PHM 160% |
| Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines | 22 | 21.5% | 58.0% | 21.9% | RCL 295% · MAR 185% · HLT 179% |
| Automotive Retail | 18 | -8.2% | 1.7% | 15.9% | MUSA 272% · PAG 188% · ORLY 126% |
| Home Improvement Retail | 5 | -13.2% | 3.1% | 12.6% | HD 18% · LOW 16% · HVT 13% |
| Specialty Stores | 7 | 6.4% | 24.6% | 7.5% | DKS 103% · ASO 34% · SIG 29% |
| Casinos & Gaming | 20 | -7.7% | -23.6% | 2.7% | BRAG 985% · MCRI 116% · RSI 113% |
| Specialized Consumer Services | 10 | -11.3% | 17.7% | -3.2% | HRB 142% · FTDR 98% · SCI 41% |
| Distributors | 4 | -7.6% | -22.7% | -8.7% | ARMK 165% · GPC 25% · LKQ -43% |
| Restaurants | 34 | -6.8% | -9.5% | -10.7% | EAT 364% · CAKE 181% · RAVE 163% |
| Footwear | 9 | 71.2% | 46.1% | -11.4% | WEYS 157% · SHOO 31% · DECK 26% |
| Home Furnishings | 4 | -2.9% | 28.2% | -12.3% | SGI 62% · LZB 8% · MHK -33% |
| Leisure Products | 13 | -1.1% | -19.7% | -31.6% | GOLF 87% · HAS 19% · MCFT 3% |
| Automotive Parts & Equipment | 38 | -6.9% | -5.4% | -31.9% | MOD 1427% · GTX 304% · STRT 102% |
| Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods | 27 | 8.1% | -3.5% | -35.8% | TPR 270% · RL 259% · ELA 257% |
| Apparel Retail | 25 | 5.9% | 5.5% | -38.3% | DXLG 191% · ANF 177% · TJX 110% |
| Household Appliances | 18 | 12.4% | 36.9% | -39.5% | KEQU 169% · FLXS 141% · HBB 126% |
| Leisure Facilities | 12 | -11.6% | -7.5% | -39.9% | OSW 187% · JAKK 117% · ESCA 10% |
| Broadline Retail | 15 | 6.1% | 10.9% | -48.6% | DDS 295% · AMZN 66% · EBAY 53% |
| Computer & Electronics Retail | 3 | -13.5% | -1.8% | -54.7% | BBY 0% · GME -55% · UPBD -59% |
| Automobile Manufacturers | 8 | -68.9% | -66.5% | -68.5% | GM 81% · F 57% · TSLA 55% |
| Consumer Electronics | 11 | -21.0% | -28.3% | -74.3% | AXIL 2012% · GRMN 92% · TBCH -54% |
| Other Specialty Retail | 18 | -25.2% | -44.3% | -77.1% | BBW 224% · TLF 106% · WINA 98% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 84.17 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.5 |
| Rev LTM | 1,286 |
| Op Inc LTM | 288 |
| FCF LTM | 242 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 243 |
| CFO LTM | 279 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 282 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 7.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 16.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 17.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 15.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 17.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.4% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $146.92 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 3.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 11/20/2008 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -33.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $147.03 | $160.67 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -0.1% | -8.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 35.1% | 31.5% |
| Downside Capture | -37.85 | 28.45 |
| Upside Capture | -66.51 | -14.99 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -27.9% | 0.9% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -2.07 | -1.03 | -0.91 | -0.10 | -0.00 | 0.54 |
| Up Beta | -3.98 | -1.76 | -1.31 | -0.37 | -0.03 | 0.69 |
| Down Beta | -1.91 | -0.48 | -0.41 | -0.33 | 0.25 | 0.70 |
| Up Capture | -134% | -101% | -97% | -9% | -10% | 12% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 23 | 27 | 64 | 130 | 394 |
| Down Capture | -185% | -106% | -84% | 32% | 1% | 58% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 20 | 36 | 62 | 121 | 357 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LOPE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOPE | -26.4% | 31.5% | -0.95 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 3.7% | 19.5% | 0.07 | 9.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 20.7% | 12.8% | 1.19 | 1.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 35.0% | 28.8% | 1.04 | -7.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 41.4% | 20.2% | 1.60 | -12.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 15.3% | 13.9% | 0.78 | 25.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -44.7% | 42.7% | -1.27 | 1.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LOPE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOPE | 11.0% | 29.8% | 0.37 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 6.3% | 24.1% | 0.22 | 30.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.2% | 0.59 | 31.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.4% | 18.6% | 0.89 | 2.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.8% | 19.6% | 0.39 | 2.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.4% | 18.9% | 0.03 | 29.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.2% | 52.6% | 0.32 | 12.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LOPE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOPE | 13.1% | 31.1% | 0.46 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.5% | 22.2% | 0.51 | 34.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 36.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.5% | 16.2% | 0.63 | 2.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.9% | 18.1% | 0.35 | 10.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 31.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.0% | 66.0% | 1.00 | 7.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 8/10/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/30/2026 | -3.2% | -0.9% | |
| 4/30/2026 | -3.3% | -2.7% | -9.9% |
| 2/18/2026 | -7.9% | -6.5% | -2.0% |
| 11/5/2025 | -6.3% | -4.7% | -15.4% |
| 8/6/2025 | 13.2% | 15.1% | 18.7% |
| 5/6/2025 | 4.6% | 5.2% | 2.7% |
| 2/19/2025 | 1.8% | -2.5% | -7.6% |
| 11/6/2024 | 2.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 11 | 13 |
| # Negative | 11 | 14 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.8% |
| Median Negative | -3.5% | -3.9% | -9.9% |
| Max Positive | 14.9% | 16.1% | 26.5% |
| Max Negative | -16.0% | -12.3% | -16.9% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/30/2026 | -3.2% | -0.9% | |
| 4/30/2026 | -3.3% | -2.7% | -9.9% |
| 2/18/2026 | -7.9% | -6.5% | -2.0% |
| 11/5/2025 | -6.3% | -4.7% | -15.4% |
| 8/6/2025 | 13.2% | 15.1% | 18.7% |
| 5/6/2025 | 4.6% | 5.2% | 2.7% |
| 2/19/2025 | 1.8% | -2.5% | -7.6% |
| 11/6/2024 | 2.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% |
| 8/6/2024 | -3.5% | -3.0% | -3.6% |
| 5/7/2024 | 5.2% | 3.4% | 3.1% |
| 2/13/2024 | 1.8% | -1.1% | 1.0% |
| 11/2/2023 | 12.5% | 12.7% | 14.1% |
| 8/3/2023 | 5.7% | 1.2% | 9.3% |
| 5/2/2023 | -2.0% | -6.1% | -11.2% |
| 2/16/2023 | 3.0% | 0.1% | -4.2% |
| 10/27/2022 | 14.9% | 16.1% | 26.5% |
| 8/4/2022 | -10.7% | -12.3% | -14.5% |
| 5/4/2022 | 3.3% | -6.8% | -7.0% |
| 2/16/2022 | 3.7% | 9.0% | 23.5% |
| 10/28/2021 | -9.4% | -6.1% | -16.9% |
| 8/5/2021 | -1.0% | -3.1% | 0.8% |
| 5/5/2021 | -16.0% | -12.2% | -16.3% |
| 2/17/2021 | 3.8% | 4.7% | 6.4% |
| 11/5/2020 | -2.5% | -1.0% | 3.8% |
| 8/4/2020 | 9.0% | 8.2% | 4.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 11 | 13 |
| # Negative | 11 | 14 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.8% |
| Median Negative | -3.5% | -3.9% | -9.9% |
| Max Positive | 14.9% | 16.1% | 26.5% |
| Max Negative | -16.0% | -12.3% | -16.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/13/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/16/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/13/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/16/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/16/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/17/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/04/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/07/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/20/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/06/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/31/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/30/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Service Revenue | 268.50 Mil | 269.50 Mil | 270.50 Mil | -2.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 275.00 Mil for Q3 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Operating Margin | 19.5% | 19.75% | 20.0% | -2.2% | Lowered | Guidance: 22.0% for Q3 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Diluted EPS | 1.68 | 1.7 | 1.72 | -6.3% | Lowered | Guidance: 1.81 for Q3 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Service Revenue | 324.00 Mil | 326.50 Mil | 329.00 Mil | -2.2% | Lowered | Guidance: 333.75 Mil for Q4 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Operating Margin | 36.9% | 37.15% | 37.4% | -0.2% | Lowered | Guidance: 37.3% for Q4 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Diluted EPS | 3.69 | 3.74 | 3.79 | 0.3% | Raised | Guidance: 3.73 for Q4 2026 | |
| 2026 Service Revenue | 1.17 Bil | 1.17 Bil | 1.17 Bil | -0.9% | Lowered | Guidance: 1.18 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Operating Margin | 28.0% | 28.1% | 28.2% | -0.3% | Lowered | Guidance: 28.4% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Diluted EPS | 9.93 | 10 | 10.1 | 0.3% | Raised | Guidance: 9.97 for 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/18/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Service Revenue | 307.00 Mil | 307.50 Mil | 308.00 Mil | 0 | Same New | Guidance: 307.50 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Operating Margin | 30.0% | 30.15% | 30.3% | -5.3% | Lower New | Guidance: 35.45% for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Diluted EPS | 2.7 | 2.71 | 2.73 | -13.1% | Lower New | Guidance: 3.12 for Q4 2025 | |
| Q2 2026 Service Revenue | 260.00 Mil | 262.00 Mil | 264.00 Mil | -14.8% | Lower New | Guidance: 307.50 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Operating Margin | 20.1% | 20.7% | 21.3% | -9.4% | Lower New | Guidance: 30.15% for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Diluted EPS | 1.56 | 1.62 | 1.68 | -40.3% | Lower New | Guidance: 2.71 for Q1 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Service Revenue | 271.50 Mil | 275.00 Mil | 278.50 Mil | 5.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 262.00 Mil for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Operating Margin | 21.0% | 22.0% | 23.0% | 1.3% | Higher New | Guidance: 20.7% for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Diluted EPS | 1.72 | 1.81 | 1.91 | 12.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.62 for Q2 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Service Revenue | 329.00 Mil | 333.75 Mil | 338.50 Mil | 21.4% | Higher New | Guidance: 275.00 Mil for Q3 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Operating Margin | 36.4% | 37.3% | 38.2% | 15.3% | Higher New | Guidance: 22.0% for Q3 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Diluted EPS | 3.57 | 3.71 | 3.85 | 104.4% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.81 for Q3 2026 | |
| 2026 Service Revenue | 1.17 Bil | 1.18 Bil | 1.19 Bil | 6.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.11 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Operating Margin | 27.5% | 28.15% | 28.8% | 4.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 24.15% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Diluted EPS | 9.55 | 9.86 | 10.2 | 27.7% | Higher New | Guidance: 7.71 for 2025 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/18/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Service Revenue | 307.00 Mil | 307.50 Mil | 308.00 Mil | 0 | Same New | Guidance: 307.50 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Operating Margin | 30.0% | 30.15% | 30.3% | -5.3% | Lower New | Guidance: 35.45% for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Diluted EPS | 2.7 | 2.71 | 2.73 | -13.1% | Lower New | Guidance: 3.12 for Q4 2025 | |
| Q2 2026 Service Revenue | 260.00 Mil | 262.00 Mil | 264.00 Mil | -14.8% | Lower New | Guidance: 307.50 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Operating Margin | 20.1% | 20.7% | 21.3% | -9.4% | Lower New | Guidance: 30.15% for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Diluted EPS | 1.56 | 1.62 | 1.68 | -40.3% | Lower New | Guidance: 2.71 for Q1 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Service Revenue | 271.50 Mil | 275.00 Mil | 278.50 Mil | 5.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 262.00 Mil for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Operating Margin | 21.0% | 22.0% | 23.0% | 1.3% | Higher New | Guidance: 20.7% for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Diluted EPS | 1.72 | 1.81 | 1.91 | 12.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.62 for Q2 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Service Revenue | 329.00 Mil | 333.75 Mil | 338.50 Mil | 21.4% | Higher New | Guidance: 275.00 Mil for Q3 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Operating Margin | 36.4% | 37.3% | 38.2% | 15.3% | Higher New | Guidance: 22.0% for Q3 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Diluted EPS | 3.57 | 3.71 | 3.85 | 104.4% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.81 for Q3 2026 | |
| 2026 Service Revenue | 1.17 Bil | 1.18 Bil | 1.19 Bil | 6.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.11 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Operating Margin | 27.5% | 28.15% | 28.8% | 4.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 24.15% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Diluted EPS | 9.55 | 9.86 | 10.2 | 27.7% | Higher New | Guidance: 7.71 for 2025 | |
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/5/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Service Revenue | 305.00 Mil | 307.50 Mil | 310.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 307.50 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 Operating Margin | 35.1% | 35.45% | 35.8% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 35.45% for Q4 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 Diluted EPS | 3.07 | 3.12 | 3.18 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.12 for Q4 2025 | |
| 2025 Service Revenue | 1.10 Bil | 1.11 Bil | 1.11 Bil | 0.2% | Raised | Guidance: 1.10 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Operating Margin | 24.0% | 24.15% | 24.3% | -3.6% | Lowered | Guidance: 27.7% for 2025 | |
| 2025 Diluted EPS | 7.66 | 7.71 | 7.77 | -12.6% | Lowered | Guidance: 8.82 for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 6/11/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Humphrey, Chevy | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 166.15 | 600 | 99,690 | 520,216 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Humphrey, Chevy | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 166.15 | 600 | 99,690 | 520,216 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Aug 20, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager |
|---|
LOPE Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The business model is fundamentally strong, with a 27.8% operating margin and a clear competitive position in high-demand fields. While recent enrollment growth has slowed, the company has specific, funded initiatives launching now—including new colleges for law and construction—to re-accelerate. Conviction is tempered by the need to see these new platforms deliver results in the coming quarters.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Service / Take-Rate(Number of Partner University Students) x (Average Tuition & Fees per Student) x (GCE's Revenue Share %) Leveraging a largely fixed-cost technology and administrative platform across a growing number of student enrollments, combined with a mix shift toward higher-revenue-per-student programs like hybrid campuses.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests a path to renewed growth by layering new, in-demand colleges onto a proven, high-margin services platform.
- Total partner enrollments grew 7.6% to 126,231 in the latest quarter.
- A new College of Construction and a new law school are launching.
- The company plans to expand its hybrid campus network from 47 to 80 locations.
- Trailing-twelve-month operating margin is 27.8%, up from 27.2% a year ago.
- The primary partner contract provides stability through June 2041.
PRIMARY RISK
Recent deceleration in key enrollment metrics, lowered revenue guidance, and a new federal accountability rule create significant uncertainty for future results.
- Hybrid campus enrollment growth slowed to 8.5%.
- Q3 2026 service revenue guidance was lowered by -2.0%.
- Accounts receivable grew 22.5%, far outpacing 6.7% revenue growth.
- A new federal rule effective July 2026 puts some programs at risk of losing loan eligibility.
- The business depends on a single partner for 89.4% of its revenue.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Total University Partner Enrollment Growth | 7.6% year-over-year for Q2 2026 - Decelerating | Management attributes the 7.6% growth in the latest quarter to a 7.8% increase in GCU online enrollments and an 18.7% increase at off-campus sites (excluding those in teach-out). The company's long-term goal for total enrollment growth is 6% to 7% annually, indicating the current rate is still above the target floor. |
| Hybrid Campus Enrollment Growth | 8.5% year-over-year for Q2 2026 (excluding closed sites and those in teach-out) - Decelerating | Despite the sharp slowdown, management stated the 8.5% growth "exceeded our expectation." The CFO's guidance anticipates a reacceleration, expecting the growth rate for the hybrid pillar to "remain in the teens during the second half of 2026." This is attributed to capacity constraints at 14 locations that are at or near capacity, which limits growth until regulatory approvals are secured. |
| Total University Partner Enrollments | 126,231 (Q2 2026 (as of 6/30/2026)) | The primary driver of service revenue, reflecting the total number of students GCE is servicing across all its partners. |
| GCU Online Enrollments | 113,011 (Q2 2026 (as of 6/30/2026)) | The largest component of the enrollment base, indicating the health of the core online education platform. |
| Hybrid Campus Enrollments (Off-campus sites) | 5,829 (Q2 2026 (as of 6/30/2026)) | Represents the key high-growth, high-revenue-per-student initiative, primarily focused on pre-licensure nursing programs. |
Temporary capacity constraints vs. structural slowdown?
BULL VIEW
The recent slowdown in the high-growth hybrid business to 8.5% is a temporary issue caused by 14 sites hitting capacity, and growth will re-accelerate to the teens in H2 2026 as guided.
CORE TENSION
Can new colleges and hybrid site expansion offset the deceleration in core online enrollment, which slowed to 7.8% from 9.6% a year ago?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The debate is open. Management has a credible plan for re-acceleration, but the latest data shows a clear slowdown, and the next earnings report on November 3rd is the first key test.
BEAR VIEW
The slowdown is the beginning of market saturation. Lowered revenue guidance for Q3 and the full year reflects a permanently lower growth trajectory for the entire business.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
in the fall 2026 | New Hybrid Campus Site Watch: Grand Canyon University (GCU) plans to open one new hybrid campus site. |
beginning in fall 2026 | New Hybrid OT Program Watch: A hybrid occupational therapy bridge to master's program is scheduled to begin. |
in the fall 2026 | New Medical Lab Program Watch: GCU is adding a bachelor of science in medical lab sciences program. |
10/26/2026 - 11/4/2026 | Negative Peer Read-Through Watch: Commentary from peers on enrollment trends, marketing efficiency, impact of AI on lead generation, or regulatory pressures. |
10/27/2026 | Peer Graham Earnings Watch: Peer Graham (GHC) is scheduled to report earnings. |
11/2/2026 | Peer Perdoceo Earnings Watch: Peer Perdoceo Education (PRDO) is scheduled to report earnings. |
11/3/2026 | Further Guidance Reduction Watch: Any downward revision to Q4 or new FY2027 guidance, particularly on enrollment growth or operating margins. |
11/3/2026 | Regulatory Program Risk Watch: Management commentary on the next earnings call regarding the impact of OBBBA and any additional programs at risk. |
11/3/2026 | Worsening Receivable Quality Watch: The next quarterly report to see if the A/R vs. revenue growth divergence persists or worsens, and any change in cash conversion. |
11/3/2026 | Company Earnings Report Watch: The company is scheduled to report Q3 2026 earnings. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-07-30 | Q2 Earnings Beat, Guidance Lowered Details: The company reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.81, beating estimates, but lowered its full-year 2026 service revenue guidance by -0.9% and also lowered operating margin guidance. | -8.8% $159.31 -> $145.34 |
2026-06-09 | Analyst Initiates Bullish Coverage Details: A press report noted that a Wall Street analyst began coverage on the company with a bullish outlook. | +1.4% $148.59 -> $150.70 |
2026-05-28 | Stock Price Enters Oversold Territory Details: After a 10.3% decline in four weeks, press reports noted the stock had become technically oversold, implying heavy selling pressure might be exhausted. | -1.3% $151.88 -> $149.85 |
2026-04-30 | Continued Negative Earnings Reaction Details: Following its earnings call, the company's stock had a two-day negative reaction of -3.0%. | -3.5% $169.26 -> $163.41 |
2026-03-30 | Major Institutional Investor Sells Details: An institutional investor, Assenagon Asset Management S.A., reduced its position in the company by 87.2%, selling 175,189 shares during the fourth quarter. | +2.1% $166.58 -> $170.03 |
2026-02-18 | Negative Post-Earnings Stock Reaction Details: The company's stock experienced a two-day negative reaction of -5.0% around its earnings call. | -4.8% $162.35 -> $154.60 |
Position Sizing
2% - 4%
REDUCED POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: LOPE trades at roughly 36% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 14% for the S&P 500 (2.6x the market), around the 98th percentile of its own trailing year. A 2% - 4% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
STRA - Strategic Education, Inc.
Corporate channel exposureSTRA offers direct access to the corporate education market through its Workforce Edge platform, which has 81 corporate agreements covering 4 million employees.
PRDO - Perdoceo Education
Higher margin profilePRDO operates with a significantly higher gross margin of 77.1% compared to LOPE's 53.3%, while maintaining a comparable operating margin of 27.5%.
An outsourced growth and technology platform for universities, operating a scalable, high-margin model by taking a share of tuition from high-demand, professionally-oriented degree programs.
GCE functions as a service provider that enables universities, especially its primary partner GCU, to scale rapidly. It thrives by focusing on workforce-aligned programs in fields with shortages, like nursing and teaching, where its technology and operational support for licensure are a key differentiator. Growth is driven by increasing student volume and expanding into new, profitable verticals like trades and law, creating a resilient and diversified enrollment base.
Sustained high-single-digit or better enrollment growth, successful scaling of the new GCU colleges (law, construction), continued double-digit growth in the hybrid campus platform, and the addition of new university partners.
A slowdown in enrollment growth below the company's 6-7% long-term goal, significant regulatory changes targeting the revenue-share 'bundled services' model, or any material disruption to the GCU partnership.
Quarterly fluctuations in ground campus enrollment due to academic calendar seasonality.
Repricing Catalyst
The market's potential realization of the company as an 'agile, fast-moving company' displacing legacy institutions, driven by the successful execution of its multiple new growth platforms (Honors College, construction/trades, law school) and continued high-margin growth in its hybrid business.
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Education Services Resources |
| EdSurge |
| Education Week |
| Inside Higher Ed |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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