CoreCivic (CXW)
Market Price (11/6/2026): $28.23 | Market Cap: $2.4 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Diversified Support Services
CoreCivic (CXW)
Market Price (11/6/2026): $28.23Market Cap: $2.4 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Diversified Support Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Public Safety & Justice Systems. Themes include Correctional Facilities Management, Detention Services, and Government Contracted Services. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% | Key risksCXW key risks include [1] a heavy dependence on government contracts vulnerable to political and legislative changes, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Public Safety & Justice Systems. Themes include Correctional Facilities Management, Detention Services, and Government Contracted Services. |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% |
| Key risksCXW key risks include [1] a heavy dependence on government contracts vulnerable to political and legislative changes, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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CoreCivic (CXW) stock has lost about 5% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Aggregated Insider Selling Exceeding $5 Million.
CoreCivic experienced significant insider selling over the past year, with total insider sales reaching $17.4 million to $18.0 million over the last 12 months, without any corresponding open-market purchases. This sustained trend of insider divestment, which continued during the specified period, can signal a lack of strong conviction from company leadership regarding the stock's immediate upside, contributing to negative sentiment among investors.
2. Persistent Valuation Concerns.
Despite reporting strong financial results, the stock was noted to be trading at a premium, with a trailing P/E ratio of 24.45. This valuation was reportedly higher than its industry peers, trading around 22.7x to 23.9x earnings compared to the commercial services sector average of 18.8x to 19x. This elevated valuation, coupled with an assessment by GuruFocus indicating the stock was approximately 10.5% overvalued relative to its intrinsic value, likely contributed to investor caution and capped potential stock appreciation.
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CoreCivic (CXW) stock has lost about 5% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Aggregated Insider Selling Exceeding $5 Million.
CoreCivic experienced significant insider selling over the past year, with total insider sales reaching $17.4 million to $18.0 million over the last 12 months, without any corresponding open-market purchases. This sustained trend of insider divestment, which continued during the specified period, can signal a lack of strong conviction from company leadership regarding the stock's immediate upside, contributing to negative sentiment among investors.
2. Persistent Valuation Concerns.
Despite reporting strong financial results, the stock was noted to be trading at a premium, with a trailing P/E ratio of 24.45. This valuation was reportedly higher than its industry peers, trading around 22.7x to 23.9x earnings compared to the commercial services sector average of 18.8x to 19x. This elevated valuation, coupled with an assessment by GuruFocus indicating the stock was approximately 10.5% overvalued relative to its intrinsic value, likely contributed to investor caution and capped potential stock appreciation.
3. Negative Market Reaction to Strong Fiscal Q3 2026 Earnings.
CoreCivic announced its fiscal Q3 2026 financial results on November 4, 2026, reporting adjusted EPS of $0.49, which beat analyst consensus estimates of $0.43 by approximately 14%. Additionally, revenue for the quarter reached $744.1 million, surpassing the consensus estimate of $705.8 million by 5.4% and representing a 28.2% year-over-year increase. Despite these positive beats and raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance, the stock surprisingly edged lower by 1.5% immediately following the earnings release, suggesting that the positive news was either already priced into the stock or overshadowed by other market concerns.
4. Regulatory and Policy Headwinds.
Ongoing legislative and policy pressures within the private corrections industry posed a significant headwind. Notably, California introduced a new 25% tax on detention operators, directly impacting the profitability of companies like CoreCivic. Furthermore, the broader political environment included continued debates and potential policy shifts regarding the federal government's use of private prisons, particularly for immigration detention, which accounts for a significant portion of CoreCivic's business. Such regulatory and political uncertainties can create an unfavorable investment climate, contributing to a downward trend in stock performance.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -5.6% change in CXW stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a -6.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 29.90 | 28.23 | -5.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,337 | 2,484 | 6.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.5% | 5.1% | -6.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 22.8 | 21.8 | -4.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 99 | 99 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -5.6% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CXW | -5.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | -1.9% | 9.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | -9.7% | 21.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 38.0% change in CXW stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 20.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 20.46 | 28.23 | 38.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,211 | 2,484 | 12.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.3% | 5.1% | -2.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 18.1 | 21.8 | 20.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 103 | 99 | 4.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 38.0% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CXW | 38.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.3% | 10.0% |
| Sector (XLI) | -6.7% | 15.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 52.3% change in CXW stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 24.3% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 18.53 | 28.23 | 52.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,998 | 2,484 | 24.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.2% | 5.1% | -1.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.3 | 21.8 | 12.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 109 | 99 | 9.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 52.3% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CXW | 52.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.4% | 15.6% |
| Sector (XLI) | 5.7% | 15.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 122.3% change in CXW stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 81.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 12.70 | 28.23 | 122.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,857 | 2,484 | 33.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.5% | 5.1% | -20.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.0 | 21.8 | 81.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 114 | 99 | 14.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 122.3% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CXW | 122.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 81.3% | 25.5% |
| Sector (XLI) | 71.8% | 27.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CXW Return | 52% | 16% | 26% | 50% | -12% | 48% | 331% |
| Peers Return | -2% | 4% | 0% | 75% | -31% | 35% | 69% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CXW Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 58% | 50% | 42% | 45% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 54% | 38% | 54% | 50% | 42% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 45% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CXW Max Drawdown | -30% | -36% | -28% | -31% | -30% | -21% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -29% | -35% | -39% | -28% | -45% | -22% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: GEO, DEA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/5/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CXW | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -28.2% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.3% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 180 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -17.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 21 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -47.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 92.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1533 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -26.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 165 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -21.2% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.8% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 89 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -25.5% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.2% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 111 days | 15 days |
In The Past
CoreCivic's stock fell -5.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 6.2% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | CXW | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -28.2% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.3% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 180 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -47.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 92.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1533 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -26.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 165 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -21.2% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.8% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 89 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -25.5% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.2% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 111 days | 15 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -66.7% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 200.2% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1138 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -22.8% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.6% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1808 days | 47 days |
In The Past
CoreCivic's stock fell -5.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 6.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About CoreCivic (CXW)
CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) is a U.S.-based company that partners with government entities to provide comprehensive solutions in corrections, detention, and offender rehabilitation. The company operates through three main segments: CoreCivic Safety, which manages correctional and detention facilities; CoreCivic Community, focused on residential reentry centers; and CoreCivic Properties, which offers government real estate solutions.
The company's core services include the operation and management of a network of correctional and detention facilities across the United States. Within these facilities and its residential reentry centers, CoreCivic offers a range of rehabilitative and educational programs. These programs are designed to address America's recidivism crisis and include basic education, faith-based services, life skills and employment training, and substance abuse treatment.
CoreCivic's primary customers are various U.S. government partners, including federal, state, and local agencies. The company's business model involves owning and operating these facilities, and also leasing properties to its government clients, acting as a specialized real estate provider in the public safety sector.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe CoreCivic (CXW):
- Think of it like an HCA Healthcare, but for prisons, detention centers, and residential reentry facilities instead of hospitals.
- It's similar to G4S (a global security firm), but specialized in owning and operating correctional and detention facilities exclusively for U.S. government partners.
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- Correctional and Detention Facility Management: Manages and operates correctional and detention facilities for government partners.
- Residential Reentry Center Operations: Operates a network of residential reentry centers designed to help individuals transition back into society and reduce recidivism.
- Government Real Estate Solutions: Provides government partners with real estate solutions by owning properties for lease.
- Inmate and Resident Rehabilitation Programs: Offers a range of rehabilitation and educational programs, including basic education, life skills, employment training, and substance abuse treatment, within its facilities.
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CoreCivic (CXW) primarily sells its services to various government agencies, not to other companies or individuals. Its major customers include:
- Federal Government Agencies:
- U.S. Marshals Service (USMS)
- Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE)
- Federal Bureau of Prisons (BOP)
- State Governments: Various state departments of corrections and other state agencies across the United States.
- Local Governments: County and municipal entities seeking correctional, detention, or residential reentry solutions.
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Patrick D. Swindle, President and Chief Executive Officer
Patrick D. Swindle was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of CoreCivic, effective January 1, 2026. He previously served as President and Chief Operating Officer from January 1, 2025. Swindle joined CoreCivic in 2007, holding various leadership positions including Managing Director, Treasury; Vice President, Strategic Development; Senior Vice President, Operations; Executive Vice President and Chief Corrections Officer; and Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer. Prior to his tenure at CoreCivic, he spent ten years in equity research, working at SunTrust Equitable Securities, Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., and Avondale Partners, LLC.
David Garfinkle, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
David Garfinkle serves as CoreCivic's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. He has been with the company for nearly 20 years, serving as CFO for approximately six to seven years as of February 2021.
Daren Swenson, Executive Vice President and Chief Corrections and Reentry Officer
Daren Swenson was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Corrections and Reentry Officer, effective January 1, 2026, overseeing the operations for CoreCivic's corrections, detention, and reentry facilities. He began his career with CoreCivic in 1992 as a Correctional Sergeant and has since held multiple leadership roles, including Warden, Managing Director, Vice President, and Senior Vice President and Chief Corrections Officer.
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Regulatory and Political Risks
CoreCivic faces significant risks due to the highly regulated nature of its industry and its heavy reliance on government contracts. Changes in political administrations, legislative actions, and public sentiment can directly impact the company's ability to obtain new contracts, renew existing ones, or even continue operations in certain areas. For example, presidential executive orders or state-level legislation restricting private correctional or detention facilities can lead to contract non-renewals and reduced demand. The company's business model is substantially dependent on federal and state government demand for correctional, detention, and residential reentry services.
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Reputational Risks and Litigation
The company operates in an industry subject to intense public scrutiny, leading to significant reputational risks. CoreCivic faces ongoing legal and social challenges stemming from allegations of inhumane conditions, understaffing, violence, medical negligence, and other operational deficiencies within its facilities. These issues often result in class-action lawsuits, federal investigations, and negative publicity, which can increase operational costs, damage relationships with government partners, and potentially lead to contract terminations or difficulties in securing new business.
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High Level of Indebtedness and Occupancy Fluctuations
CoreCivic carries a notable level of debt, which can limit its financial flexibility and its capacity to adapt to market changes or invest in growth opportunities. Furthermore, the company's revenue and profitability are largely dependent on the occupancy levels of its facilities, as a significant portion of its income is derived from per diem payments. Fluctuations in inmate populations or changes in government policies affecting detention numbers can directly impact occupancy rates, leading to revenue volatility and affecting the company's financial performance.
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CoreCivic Safety (Corrections and Detention Management)
The private correctional facilities market in the United States generates approximately $4 billion to $7.4 billion in revenue per year. North America, driven primarily by the United States, holds the largest share of the global private prison service market, which was valued at approximately USD 8 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 12.5 billion by 2032. The broader correctional facilities industry in the U.S. had an estimated revenue of $9.0 billion in 2025.CoreCivic Community (Residential Reentry Centers)
While a specific market size in USD for residential reentry centers is not readily available, these programs are considered a growing niche within the broader criminal justice system. Approximately 5 million people in the U.S. are under some form of criminal justice supervision, such as probation or parole, creating demand for services like reentry programs and community corrections provided by companies like CoreCivic. The global correctional system market, which includes rehabilitation and reintegration efforts, is anticipated to grow from USD 4.85 billion to USD 9.40 billion by 2033, driven in part by recidivism reduction initiatives.CoreCivic Properties (Government Real Estate Solutions)
A distinct addressable market size for CoreCivic's specific "government real estate solutions" beyond their correctional facilities is not precisely quantifiable from the available data. However, these services operate within the much larger U.S. real estate market. The overall U.S. real estate market was valued at USD 3.43 trillion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 4.52 trillion by 2034. The U.S. office real estate market, a segment of the broader real estate market, was valued at USD 369.58 billion in 2025 and is estimated to grow to USD 447.86 billion by 2031.AI Analysis | Feedback
Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for CoreCivic (CXW)
CoreCivic (CXW) is anticipated to experience revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several key factors stemming from its partnerships with federal, state, and local governments.
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Increased Demand and Contracts from Federal Partners, Particularly ICE: CoreCivic expects continued significant demand from federal government partners, especially U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). The company has secured new contracts and contract modifications to house immigration detainees, with management anticipating further growth in detainee populations. For example, CoreCivic announced contract modifications to add capacity for ICE detainees at multiple facilities in February 2025.
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Activation of Idle Facilities and Higher Occupancy Rates: CoreCivic has a supply of available beds in currently idle facilities. The company is actively reactivating some of these facilities and has seen increased occupancy across its Safety and Community segments. This strategy directly contributes to higher revenue as more beds are utilized. The full activation of facilities like the Dilley Immigration Processing Center in 2025 and ongoing start-up activities at California City and Diamondback facilities are expected to drive growth.
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New and Expanded Contracts with State and Local Governments: Beyond federal agreements, CoreCivic continues to expand its relationships with state and local government partners. The company has secured new management contracts with various states, such as Montana and Wyoming, and counties like Hines County, Mississippi, and Harris County, Texas, which contribute to its revenue growth.
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Per Diem Rate Increases: CoreCivic has successfully negotiated per diem rate increases with its government partners. These increases, particularly from state customers who often implement them at the start of their fiscal years (typically July), help offset inflationary costs and enhance revenue per mandate.
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Share Repurchases
- CoreCivic's Board of Directors authorized an increase of $200 million to its existing share repurchase program on November 10, 2025, raising the total authorization to $700 million.
- Since the program's inception in May 2022 through November 7, 2025, the company repurchased 21.5 million shares for an aggregate cost of $322.1 million, at an average price of $14.98 per share.
- As of November 7, 2025, $377.9 million remained available under the share repurchase authorization.
Capital Expenditures
- For 2026, CoreCivic anticipates capital expenditures of $30.0 million to $35.0 million for real estate maintenance, $30.0 million to $35.0 million for other asset and information technology maintenance, and $15.0 million for other capital investments.
- In 2025, the company expected to invest $29.0 million to $31.0 million in maintenance capital expenditures on real estate assets, $31.0 million to $34.0 million for maintenance capital expenditures on other assets and information technology, and $6.0 million to $7.0 million for other capital investments. Additionally, $35.0 million to $40.0 million was earmarked for activating previously idle facilities.
- CoreCivic projected capital expenditures between $70.0 million and $76.0 million for 2024, which included amounts for maintenance on real estate assets, other assets and information technology, and costs to prepare an idle facility for potential activation.
Peer Outperformance in Diversified Support Services
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Transportation | 5 | 25.1% | 30.2% | 102.9% | MATX 155% · KEX 103% |
| Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment | 13 | 6.3% | 55.5% | 95.0% | ALSN 255% · WAB 204% · CAT 192% |
| Construction & Engineering | 29 | -21.3% | 79.9% | 94.8% | FIX 895% · STRL 799% · AGX 526% |
| Aerospace & Defense | 54 | -12.6% | 55.7% | 49.5% | ATI 849% · FTAI 756% · HWM 509% |
| Trading Companies & Distributors | 19 | 5.6% | 30.7% | 33.8% | DXPE 276% · AIT 184% · URI 177% |
| Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components | 71 | 0.3% | 46.1% | 29.7% | CRS 797% · MLI 298% · SYM 249% |
| Rail Transportation | 7 | 34.9% | 53.7% | 27.8% | CSX 54% · UNP 40% · NSC 28% |
| Diversified Support Services ← | 33 | 14.8% | 36.8% | 21.3% | CXW 195% · OPLN 143% · CTAS 115% |
| Building Products | 34 | -6.6% | 9.3% | 10.6% | MOD 714% · GFF 345% · TT 126% |
| Cargo Ground Transportation | 16 | 27.9% | 14.6% | 4.8% | XPO 269% · R 250% · ARCB 25% |
| Industrial Conglomerates | 17 | 14.8% | -1.6% | -1.3% | CSW 103% · CSL 72% · DD 65% |
| Office Services & Supplies | 10 | 20.8% | 22.5% | -2.6% | PBI 158% · TILE 140% · HNI 40% |
| Electrical Components & Equipment | 39 | -14.2% | 56.2% | -12.1% | POWL 1360% · VRT 543% · BE 424% |
| Data Processing & Outsourced Services | 6 | -11.8% | 5.0% | -12.7% | EXLS 59% · BR 22% · G -12% |
| Research & Consulting Services | 13 | 4.9% | -15.5% | -22.6% | HURN 227% · FCN 36% · BAH 14% |
| Agricultural & Farm Machinery | 16 | 7.2% | -7.4% | -27.4% | BLBD 171% · DE 99% · TTC 15% |
| Security & Alarm Services | 9 | -51.2% | 10.7% | -28.0% | BCO 65% |
| Environmental & Facilities Services | 29 | -31.2% | 25.5% | -28.1% | GEO 163% · CLH 162% · RSG 100% |
| Passenger Airlines | 11 | 2.6% | 64.1% | -34.8% | LTM 3100% · UAL 110% · DAL 100% |
| Air Freight & Logistics | 12 | -28.8% | -7.3% | -39.1% | FDX 80% · EXPD 60% · CHRW 54% |
| Human Resource & Employment Services | 22 | 19.2% | -6.0% | -42.4% | ADP 50% · FA 22% · PAYX 13% |
| Passenger Ground Transportation | 3 | -14.1% | 42.9% | -57.4% | UBER 46% · CAR -57% · LYFT -67% |
| Airport Services | 4 | -49.1% | -62.8% | -86.2% | JOBY -47% |
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Peer Comparisons
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Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 25.16 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.8 |
| Rev LTM | 2,484 |
| Op Inc LTM | 247 |
| FCF LTM | 57 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 133 |
| CFO LTM | 199 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 239 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 15.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 15.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 24.7% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 10.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.5% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safety | 2,069 | 1,817 | 1,731 | 1,684 | 1,694 |
| Community | 123 | 119 | 115 | 103 | 99 |
| Properties | 19 | 26 | 50 | 58 | 69 |
| Other revenue | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 2,211 | 1,962 | 1,897 | 1,845 | 1,863 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safety | 483 | 434 | 375 | 370 | 457 |
| Community | 27 | 22 | 23 | 17 | 18 |
| Properties | 9 | 12 | 36 | 44 | 51 |
| Other revenue | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other operating expense | -0 | -0 | -0 | -1 | -0 |
| Depreciation and amortization | -129 | -128 | -127 | -128 | -135 |
| General and administrative | -170 | -152 | -136 | -128 | -136 |
| Total | 220 | 188 | 171 | 176 | 255 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safety | 2,557 | 2,147 | 2,284 | 2,433 | 2,532 |
| Properties | 302 | 387 | 403 | 363 | 353 |
| Community | 203 | 205 | 213 | 216 | 233 |
| Corporate and other | 195 | 193 | 205 | 232 | 381 |
| Total | 3,257 | 2,932 | 3,105 | 3,245 | 3,499 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $28.23 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 2.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/15/1997 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -20.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $32.43 | $25.94 |
| DMA Trend | down | up |
| Distance from DMA | -12.9% | 8.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 47.0% | 42.3% |
| Downside Capture | -118.74 | -15.29 |
| Upside Capture | -158.08 | 46.58 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | -13.4% | 11.3% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.31 | -0.38 | -0.57 | -0.02 | 0.35 | 0.70 |
| Up Beta | 3.56 | -0.99 | -0.45 | 0.53 | 0.13 | 0.74 |
| Down Beta | 2.42 | 2.05 | 2.20 | 0.99 | 1.07 | 0.76 |
| Up Capture | -109% | -121% | -101% | -1% | 37% | 44% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 22 | 34 | 71 | 135 | 375 |
| Down Capture | -38% | -73% | -186% | -171% | -26% | 77% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 21 | 30 | 53 | 113 | 366 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CXW | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CXW | 53.4% | 42.3% | 1.12 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 7.4% | 17.8% | 0.24 | 15.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 9.5% | 13.6% | 0.41 | 15.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 3.6% | 28.7% | 0.11 | 6.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 37.7% | 21.2% | 1.40 | -2.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.0% | 14.2% | 0.55 | 9.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -20.8% | 43.3% | -0.42 | 6.0% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CXW | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CXW | 27.0% | 43.9% | 0.67 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 10.8% | 17.7% | 0.45 | 31.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.3% | 17.3% | 0.48 | 29.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.5% | 19.1% | 0.74 | 2.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.0% | 19.6% | 0.29 | 6.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.2% | 18.9% | -0.05 | 24.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.9% | 51.5% | 0.29 | 19.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CXW | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CXW | 10.8% | 48.1% | 0.39 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.9% | 20.1% | 0.56 | 41.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 18.0% | 0.70 | 36.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.0% | 16.5% | 0.59 | 2.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.6% | 18.1% | 0.33 | 14.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 39.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 61.3% | 66.2% | 1.01 | 12.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 11/6/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2026 | -7.5% | ||
| 8/5/2026 | 3.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% |
| 5/6/2026 | 3.1% | -2.7% | 9.6% |
| 2/11/2026 | -3.5% | 0.9% | -1.6% |
| 11/5/2025 | -9.9% | -8.4% | -0.3% |
| 8/6/2025 | 2.0% | 5.4% | 0.4% |
| 5/7/2025 | -2.6% | -4.6% | -2.7% |
| 2/11/2025 | 6.3% | 6.1% | 10.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 13 | 15 |
| # Negative | 13 | 11 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 4.3% | 7.3% | 8.5% |
| Median Negative | -3.7% | -4.6% | -5.0% |
| Max Positive | 25.6% | 22.4% | 28.4% |
| Max Negative | -12.7% | -24.5% | -14.1% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2026 | -7.5% | ||
| 8/5/2026 | 3.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% |
| 5/6/2026 | 3.1% | -2.7% | 9.6% |
| 2/11/2026 | -3.5% | 0.9% | -1.6% |
| 11/5/2025 | -9.9% | -8.4% | -0.3% |
| 8/6/2025 | 2.0% | 5.4% | 0.4% |
| 5/7/2025 | -2.6% | -4.6% | -2.7% |
| 2/11/2025 | 6.3% | 6.1% | 10.1% |
| 11/6/2024 | 25.6% | 22.4% | 22.4% |
| 8/7/2024 | 3.3% | 5.1% | 6.5% |
| 5/9/2024 | 0.8% | -3.0% | 0.4% |
| 2/9/2024 | -1.0% | -1.6% | -1.3% |
| 11/7/2023 | 5.2% | 1.1% | 2.3% |
| 8/8/2023 | 5.2% | 10.5% | 11.7% |
| 5/4/2023 | -1.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% |
| 2/9/2023 | 13.1% | 7.3% | -5.0% |
| 11/3/2022 | 5.5% | 9.8% | 28.4% |
| 8/3/2022 | -4.8% | -12.8% | -12.6% |
| 5/5/2022 | -12.7% | -24.5% | -9.5% |
| 2/10/2022 | -3.7% | -2.2% | -12.0% |
| 11/9/2021 | 1.6% | 18.8% | 4.0% |
| 8/10/2021 | -1.3% | -1.3% | -14.1% |
| 5/6/2021 | -4.6% | -6.9% | 8.9% |
| 2/11/2021 | -2.9% | -11.5% | 8.5% |
| 11/5/2020 | -4.3% | 1.9% | 21.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 13 | 15 |
| # Negative | 13 | 11 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 4.3% | 7.3% | 8.5% |
| Median Negative | -3.7% | -4.6% | -5.0% |
| Max Positive | 25.6% | 22.4% | 28.4% |
| Max Negative | -12.7% | -24.5% | -14.1% |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 11/5/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 11/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Funds From Operations | Reported | 269.58 Mil | 273.08 Mil | 276.58 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Normalized Funds From Operations | Reported | 263.50 Mil | 267.00 Mil | 270.50 Mil | ||||
| 2026 FFO per diluted share | Reported | 2.85 | 2.89 | 2.92 | 9.5% | Raised | Guidance: 2.64 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Normalized FFO per diluted share | Reported | 2.78 | 2.82 | 2.85 | 6.0% | Raised | Guidance: 2.66 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Other Capital Investments | Reported | 12.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 EBITDA | Reported | 2.22 Bil | 2.22 Bil | 2.22 Bil | -0.4% | Lowered | Guidance: 2.23 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 442.50 Mil | 444.00 Mil | 445.50 Mil | 0.2% | Raised | Guidance: 443.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Net Income | Reported | 1.46 Bil | 1.46 Bil | 1.47 Bil | -2.8% | Lowered | Guidance: 1.51 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Net Income | Reported | 165.00 Mil | 168.00 Mil | 171.00 Mil | 1.5% | Raised | Guidance: 165.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Diluted EPS | Reported | 15.42 | 15.45 | 15.48 | 2.3% | Raised | Guidance: 15.1 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 1.74 | 1.77 | 1.8 | 6.6% | Raised | Guidance: 1.66 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Maintenance Capital Expenditures on Real Estate Assets | Reported | 30.00 Mil | 32.50 Mil | 35.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Maintenance Capital Expenditures on Other Assets and IT | Reported | 35.00 Mil | 37.50 Mil | 40.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures for Facility Activations | Reported | 35.00 Mil | 37.50 Mil | 40.00 Mil | ||||
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 FFO per diluted share | Reported | 2.59 | 2.64 | 0.2% | Raised | Guidance: 2.63 for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Normalized FFO per diluted share | Reported | 2.61 | 2.66 | 0.2% | Raised | Guidance: 2.65 for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Prairie Facility Annual Revenue | Reported | 75.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 EBITDA | Reported | 2.22 Bil | 2.23 Bil | 390.3% | Raised | Guidance: 455.30 Mil for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 440.50 Mil | 443.00 Mil | -3.2% | Lowered | Guidance: 457.80 Mil for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Net Income | Reported | 1.50 Bil | 1.51 Bil | 885.7% | Raised | Guidance: 152.80 Mil for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Adjusted Net Income | Reported | 161.50 Mil | 165.50 Mil | 7.1% | Raised | Guidance: 154.50 Mil for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Diluted EPS | Reported | 15 | 15.1 | 867.9% | Raised | Guidance: 1.56 for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 1.62 | 1.66 | 5.1% | Raised | Guidance: 1.58 for 2026 | ||
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 FFO per diluted share | Reported | 2.58 | 2.63 | 2.68 | 1.5% | Raised | Guidance: 2.59 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Normalized FFO per diluted share | Reported | 2.6 | 2.65 | 2.7 | ||||
| 2026 CSP Acquisition Contribution | Reported | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.05 | ||||
| 2026 Midwest Regional Reception Center Contribution | Reported | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.06 | ||||
| 2026 EBITDA | Reported | 451.30 Mil | 455.30 Mil | 459.30 Mil | 3.2% | Raised | Guidance: 441.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 453.80 Mil | 457.80 Mil | 461.80 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Net Income | Reported | 147.80 Mil | 152.80 Mil | 157.80 Mil | 0.2% | Raised | Guidance: 152.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Net Income | Reported | 149.50 Mil | 154.50 Mil | 159.50 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Diluted EPS | Reported | 1.51 | 1.56 | 1.61 | 1.3% | Raised | Guidance: 1.54 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 1.53 | 1.58 | 1.63 | ||||
| 2026 Maintenance Capital Expenditures (Real Estate) | Reported | 30.00 Mil | 32.50 Mil | 35.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Maintenance Capital Expenditures (Other/IT) | Reported | 30.00 Mil | 32.50 Mil | 35.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures (Facility Activations) | Reported | 40.00 Mil | 42.50 Mil | 45.00 Mil | ||||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/11/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 FFO per diluted share | Reported | 2.54 | 2.59 | 2.64 | 32.8% | Higher New | Actual: 1.95 for 2025 | |
| 2026 EBITDA | Reported | 437.00 Mil | 441.00 Mil | 445.00 Mil | 24.0% | Higher New | Actual: 355.70 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Net Income | Reported | 147.50 Mil | 152.50 Mil | 157.50 Mil | 38.6% | Higher New | Actual: 110.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Diluted EPS | Reported | 1.49 | 1.54 | 1.59 | 51.0% | Higher New | Actual: 1.02 for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 10/2/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carter,, Cole G | Chief Administrative Officer | Direct | Sell | 10022026 | 32.02 | 12,500 | 400,250 | 5,311,574 | Form |
| 2 | Swenson, Daren | EVP, Chief Corr & Reentry Ofcr | Direct | Sell | 9112026 | 34.85 | 20,000 | 697,000 | 4,971,910 | Form |
| 3 | Carter,, Cole G | Chief Administrative Officer | Direct | Sell | 9012026 | 32.44 | 12,500 | 405,500 | 5,786,745 | Form |
| 4 | Grande, Anthony L | EVP, Chief Development Officer | Direct | Sell | 8252026 | 34.25 | 7,436 | 254,683 | 5,389,100 | Form |
| 5 | Garfinkle, David | EVP & Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 8212026 | 33.96 | 50,000 | 1,698,000 | 9,962,268 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carter,, Cole G | Chief Administrative Officer | Direct | Sell | 10022026 | 32.02 | 12,500 | 400,250 | 5,311,574 | Form |
| 2 | Swenson, Daren | EVP, Chief Corr & Reentry Ofcr | Direct | Sell | 9112026 | 34.85 | 20,000 | 697,000 | 4,971,910 | Form |
| 3 | Carter,, Cole G | Chief Administrative Officer | Direct | Sell | 9012026 | 32.44 | 12,500 | 405,500 | 5,786,745 | Form |
| 4 | Grande, Anthony L | EVP, Chief Development Officer | Direct | Sell | 8252026 | 34.25 | 7,436 | 254,683 | 5,389,100 | Form |
| 5 | Garfinkle, David | EVP & Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 8212026 | 33.96 | 50,000 | 1,698,000 | 9,962,268 | Form |
| 6 | Prann, John R JR | Direct | Sell | 8212026 | 34.00 | 22,298 | 758,132 | 275,332 | Form | |
| 7 | Prann, John R JR | Direct | Sell | 8182026 | 33.54 | 40,000 | 1,341,560 | 1,019,451 | Form | |
| 8 | Garfinkle, David | EVP & Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 8182026 | 33.76 | 50,000 | 1,688,235 | 11,593,211 | Form |
| 9 | Grande, Anthony L | EVP, Chief Development Officer | Direct | Sell | 8172026 | 33.61 | 29,199 | 981,448 | 5,538,718 | Form |
| 10 | Prann, John R JR | Direct | Sell | 8142026 | 32.21 | 30,000 | 966,300 | 2,267,455 | Form | |
| 11 | Lappin, Harley G | Direct | Sell | 8142026 | 32.69 | 3,000 | 98,070 | 1,645,222 | Form | |
| 12 | Grande, Anthony L | EVP, Chief Development Officer | Direct | Sell | 8142026 | 34.00 | 801 | 27,234 | 6,595,354 | Form |
| 13 | Lappin, Harley G | Direct | Sell | 8142026 | 33.02 | 22,032 | 727,497 | 1,760,891 | Form | |
| 14 | Garfinkle, David | EVP & Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 8132026 | 34.03 | 491 | 16,709 | 13,385,803 | Form |
| 15 | Marshall, Thurgood JR | Direct | Sell | 8132026 | 34.00 | 7,100 | 241,400 | 1,539,316 | Form | |
| 16 | Garfinkle, David | EVP & Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 8132026 | 34.27 | 3,170 | 108,636 | 13,517,596 | Form |
| 17 | Murphy, Devin Ignatius | Direct | Sell | 8122026 | 33.79 | 8,098 | 273,631 | 2,156,681 | Form | |
| 18 | Mayberry, Lucibeth | EVP, Chief Innovation Officer | Direct | Sell | 8122026 | 33.29 | 120,000 | 3,994,800 | 4,971,162 | Form |
| 19 | Carter,, Cole G | Chief Administrative Officer | Direct | Sell | 8032026 | 29.74 | 12,500 | 371,750 | 5,676,860 | Form |
| 20 | Carter,, Cole G | Chief Administrative Officer | Direct | Sell | 7012026 | 30.46 | 12,500 | 380,750 | 6,195,046 | Form |
| 21 | Carter,, Cole G | Chief Administrative Officer | Direct | Sell | 6012026 | 21.00 | 12,500 | 262,500 | 4,533,543 | Form |
| 22 | Carter,, Cole G | Chief Administrative Officer | Direct | Sell | 5012026 | 20.64 | 12,500 | 258,000 | 4,713,825 | Form |
| 23 | Carter,, Cole G | Chief Administrative Officer | Direct | Sell | 4012026 | 18.94 | 12,500 | 236,750 | 4,562,324 | Form |
| 24 | Carter,, Cole G | Chief Administrative Officer | Direct | Sell | 3022026 | 17.62 | 12,500 | 220,250 | 4,464,608 | Form |
| 25 | Prann, John R JR | Direct | Sell | 1122026 | 22.52 | 8,000 | 180,168 | 2,261,018 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 6, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
| IndustryWeek |
| Manufacturing.net |
| Aviation Week |
| Diversified Support Services Resources |
| Facilities Management Journal (FMJ) |
| Supply Chain Brain |
| Corporate Services News |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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