Caterpillar (CAT)
Market Price (7/23/2026): $890.38 | Market Cap: $412.6 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Industrials | Industry: Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment
Caterpillar (CAT)
Market Price (7/23/2026): $890.38Market Cap: $412.6 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 12 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.9 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 23 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Automation & Robotics, Future of Freight, Sustainable Infrastructure, Hydrogen Economy, Show more. | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 115% Key risksCAT key risks include [1] a high vulnerability to cyclical downturns and shifts in U.S. Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 12 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.9 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 23 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Automation & Robotics, Future of Freight, Sustainable Infrastructure, Hydrogen Economy, Show more. |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 115% |
| Key risksCAT key risks include [1] a high vulnerability to cyclical downturns and shifts in U.S. Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Caterpillar (CAT) stock has gained about 25% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q1 2026 Financial Performance and Upgraded Outlook. Caterpillar reported robust results for its fiscal Q1 2026, which ended on March 31, 2026, exceeding analyst expectations. On April 30, 2026, the company announced an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $5.54, surpassing consensus estimates of $4.65 by $0.89. Additionally, sales and revenues increased by 22% year-over-year to $17.4 billion, exceeding the $16.53 billion consensus estimate. Following this strong performance, management raised its full-year guidance to low double-digit percentage growth, a notable increase from the previous 5-7% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) range.
2. Record Backlog Driven by Infrastructure and AI-Powered Demand. Caterpillar benefited from a record $63 billion backlog reported in fiscal Q1 2026, representing a substantial 79% increase year-over-year. This robust backlog provides significant multi-year revenue visibility. A key driver of this demand is a broader "infrastructure supercycle" and, more specifically, surging AI-driven power infrastructure needs for data centers. The Power & Energy segment's sales increased approximately 20% to $7.0 billion in fiscal Q1 2026 due to strong demand for data center power products.
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Caterpillar (CAT) stock has gained about 25% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q1 2026 Financial Performance and Upgraded Outlook. Caterpillar reported robust results for its fiscal Q1 2026, which ended on March 31, 2026, exceeding analyst expectations. On April 30, 2026, the company announced an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $5.54, surpassing consensus estimates of $4.65 by $0.89. Additionally, sales and revenues increased by 22% year-over-year to $17.4 billion, exceeding the $16.53 billion consensus estimate. Following this strong performance, management raised its full-year guidance to low double-digit percentage growth, a notable increase from the previous 5-7% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) range.
2. Record Backlog Driven by Infrastructure and AI-Powered Demand. Caterpillar benefited from a record $63 billion backlog reported in fiscal Q1 2026, representing a substantial 79% increase year-over-year. This robust backlog provides significant multi-year revenue visibility. A key driver of this demand is a broader "infrastructure supercycle" and, more specifically, surging AI-driven power infrastructure needs for data centers. The Power & Energy segment's sales increased approximately 20% to $7.0 billion in fiscal Q1 2026 due to strong demand for data center power products.
3. Consistent Shareholder Returns and Positive Analyst Revisions. The company demonstrated its commitment to shareholder value by deploying $5.7 billion in cash during fiscal Q1 2026, with $5.0 billion allocated to share repurchases and $0.7 billion to dividends. Furthermore, in June, Caterpillar's board increased the quarterly dividend by 8% to $1.63 per share. This financial discipline and returning capital to shareholders, coupled with the strong earnings report, led to multiple analysts raising their price targets. For instance, JPMorgan lifted its target to $1,165, and Wells Fargo to $1,050. The consensus analyst rating remains a "Moderate Buy" with an average price target ranging from $980.57 to $1,020.45.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 26.0% change in CAT stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 18.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 705.80 | 889.31 | 26.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 67,589 | 70,755 | 4.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.1% | 13.3% | 1.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 37.0 | 43.7 | 18.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 466 | 463 | 0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 26.0% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CAT | 26.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.9% | 57.0% |
| Sector (XLI) | 10.6% | 82.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 56.2% change in CAT stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 51.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 569.39 | 889.31 | 56.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 64,671 | 70,755 | 9.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.3% | 13.3% | -7.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 28.8 | 43.7 | 51.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 469 | 463 | 1.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 56.2% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CAT | 56.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.9% | 59.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 15.6% | 82.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 132.0% change in CAT stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 138.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 383.34 | 889.31 | 132.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 63,259 | 70,755 | 11.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.7% | 13.3% | -15.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 18.3 | 43.7 | 138.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 475 | 463 | 2.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 132.0% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CAT | 132.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 22.0% | 56.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | 22.5% | 75.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 278.9% change in CAT stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 156.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 234.73 | 889.31 | 278.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 61,700 | 70,755 | 14.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.5% | 13.3% | 15.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.0 | 43.7 | 156.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 516 | 463 | 11.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 278.9% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CAT | 278.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.6% | 60.4% |
| Sector (XLI) | 73.6% | 75.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CAT Return | 16% | 19% | 26% | 25% | 60% | 56% | 441% |
| Peers Return | 19% | 7% | 22% | 8% | 24% | 22% | 154% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 100% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CAT Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 50% | 67% | 50% | 57% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 43% | 48% | 53% | 65% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 57% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CAT Max Drawdown | -22% | -30% | -22% | -16% | -33% | -19% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -23% | -31% | -23% | -22% | -28% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: DE, PCAR, CMI, TEX, OSK. See CAT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/22/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CAT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -22.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -13.3% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.3% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 41 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -16.6% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.0% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 15 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -20.2% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 30 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -32.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 77 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -28.5% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.9% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 686 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Caterpillar's stock fell -22.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 28.9% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | CAT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -22.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -20.2% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 30 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -32.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 77 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -28.5% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.9% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 686 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -24.5% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.5% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 67 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -43.8% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 78.0% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 456 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -32.9% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.0% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 107 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -22.1% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.3% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 59 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -68.8% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 220.3% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 417 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Caterpillar's stock fell -22.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 28.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Caterpillar (CAT)
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) is a global leader in manufacturing and selling heavy machinery, engines, and industrial gas turbines. The company primarily operates across vital sectors such as construction, mining, and energy, providing the foundational equipment and power solutions necessary for large-scale infrastructure development, resource extraction, and power generation worldwide.
The company's core product offerings are diverse, spanning multiple segments. Its Construction Industries division provides a wide range of equipment including excavators, loaders, motor graders, and track-type tractors used in building roads, infrastructure, and general construction. The Resource Industries segment focuses on machinery for mining and quarrying, such as electric rope shovels, large mining trucks, and rotary drills, alongside advanced fleet management and autonomous solutions. Furthermore, the Energy & Transportation segment supplies critical power generation solutions, including reciprocating engines, generator sets, industrial gas turbines, and diesel-electric locomotives for marine, oil and gas, and electric power sectors.
Caterpillar serves a broad international customer base, including construction companies, mining operators, and enterprises in the oil and gas, marine, and power generation industries. Beyond equipment sales, the company also provides essential financial products, such as operating and finance leases, installment sale contracts, and wholesale financing, to support its customers in acquiring and utilizing its machinery and services. Additionally, it offers aftermarket parts like filters and undercarriage components, ensuring ongoing support and operational efficiency for its global clientele.
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1. John Deere for industrial construction and mining equipment.
2. The General Motors of bulldozers and excavators.
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- Construction Equipment: Manufactures and sells a wide range of machinery for construction, including excavators, loaders, and dozers.
- Mining Equipment: Provides specialized heavy machinery for mining operations, such as shovels, drills, and large mining trucks, along with support solutions.
- Engines, Turbines, and Power Systems: Offers reciprocating engines, industrial gas turbines, generator sets, and integrated systems for various industrial and power generation applications.
- Locomotives and Rail Services: Provides diesel-electric locomotives, rail components, and related services for the global railway industry.
- Financial Services: Offers operating and finance leases, installment sale contracts, working capital loans, and insurance products to customers.
- Aftermarket Parts and Components: Manufactures and sells essential parts and consumables like filters, fluids, undercarriage, and ground engaging tools for its machinery.
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Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) primarily sells to other companies rather than individuals. Its major customers fall into the following categories:
- Construction Companies: These include companies involved in large-scale infrastructure projects, residential and commercial construction, road building, and site preparation, which utilize Caterpillar's wide range of construction equipment like excavators, loaders, dozers, and pavers.
- Mining Companies: Enterprises engaged in surface and underground mining operations for various minerals and resources are major customers, relying on Caterpillar's extensive line of mining trucks, shovels, drills, and other heavy equipment designed for resource extraction.
- Energy and Transportation Companies: This category encompasses businesses in sectors such as electric power generation, oil and gas exploration and production, marine transportation, and rail industries, which purchase Caterpillar's engines, generator sets, industrial gas turbines, and locomotives.
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Joseph E. Creed, Chief Executive Officer
Joseph E. Creed became Chief Executive Officer of Caterpillar Inc. on May 1, 2025, and will assume the role of Chairman of the Board of Directors effective April 1, 2026. He joined Caterpillar in 1997 and has held various positions of increasing responsibility, including Chief Financial Officer for Caterpillar's Energy & Transportation segment in 2013, Senior Vice President of Caterpillar Finance Services in 2017, and interim Chief Financial Officer in 2018. He was promoted to Group President of Energy & Transportation in 2021 and named Chief Operating Officer in 2023. Mr. Creed graduated from Western Illinois University with a bachelor's degree in accounting.
Andrew Bonfield, Chief Financial Officer
Andrew Bonfield was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Caterpillar Inc. in September 2018. He brings more than three decades of financial expertise to the role. Prior to joining Caterpillar, Mr. Bonfield served as Group CFO and board member of National Grid plc, CFO at Cadbury plc, and Executive Vice President and CFO at Bristol Myers Squibb. He also held roles as finance director of BG Group plc and CFO of Smithkline Beecham plc. Mr. Bonfield is a chartered accountant and holds a Bachelor of Commerce degree from the University of Natal in Durban, South Africa. He also serves as a non-executive director and chairman of the audit committee at Reckitt Benckiser Group plc. Mr. Bonfield was the first CFO appointed from outside Caterpillar.
George A. Moubayed, Chief Sustainability and Strategy Officer and Senior Vice President
George Moubayed is the Chief Sustainability and Strategy Officer and a Senior Vice President of Caterpillar Inc., responsible for the Enterprise Strategy Division. He oversees the execution of Caterpillar's strategy for long-term profitable growth. Mr. Moubayed joined Caterpillar in 1997 and has held several leadership positions, including Vice President and General Manager for load and haul products in Resource Industries, and Vice President of Aftermarket Solutions in Resource Industries. He has a bachelor's degree in engineering from McGill University in Montreal, Canada.
David (Dave) T. Walton, President and Chief Executive Officer of Caterpillar Financial Services Corporation and Senior Vice President
David T. Walton is the President and Chief Executive Officer of Caterpillar Financial Services Corporation (Cat Financial) and a Senior Vice President of Caterpillar Inc. He is responsible for the Financial Products Division, which includes Cat Financial and Cat Financial Insurance Services. Mr. Walton joined Cat Financial in 1989 and has held various credit, portfolio management, and sales positions in the United States. His international experience includes serving as managing director of Northern Europe and vice president for Asia-Pacific operations. He also formed and led Cat Financial's global mining finance organization. Mr. Walton holds a bachelor's degree in accounting from Indiana University and a master's degree in business administration from Keller Graduate School.
Ogi Redzic, Chief Digital Officer and Senior Vice President
Ogi Redzic is the Chief Digital Officer and a Senior Vice President of Caterpillar Inc., responsible for Cat Digital. He manages key components of the company's digital and marketing portfolios, including global marketing & brand, connectivity, enterprise data, analytics and AI, and eCommerce. Before joining Caterpillar in 2018, Mr. Redzic was the Alliance Senior Vice President of Connected Vehicles and Mobility Services at Renault-Nissan Alliance. He has more than 20 years of experience in leadership positions in corporate and start-up environments, including roles at Mitsubishi, Nokia HERE, NAVTEQ, PCTEL, Inc., cyberPIXIE, and Motorola. Mr. Redzic holds a bachelor's degree in computer science from Northeastern Illinois University, a master's degree in computer science from the Illinois Institute of Technology, and an MBA from the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University.
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Here are the key risks to Caterpillar Inc.'s business:
- Trade Policy and Tariffs: Caterpillar faces significant financial headwinds due to persistent trade policies and tariffs, leading to substantial costs and compressing operating margins. For instance, the company adjusted its tariff guidance to an estimated impact of between $1.60 billion and $1.75 billion for the full 2025 fiscal year. These costs are projected to remain substantial, with an estimated incremental cost of $2.6 billion in 2026, directly impacting operating margins and segment profits.
- Cyclical Demand and Macroeconomic Vulnerability: Caterpillar's core business, heavily reliant on the construction and mining sectors, is exposed to the cyclical nature of these industries. Revenue and profitability are susceptible to economic downturns, fluctuations in commodity prices, project funding, and overall macroeconomic conditions. This vulnerability can lead to rapid declines in equipment purchases and sales volumes, exacerbated by risks of dealer inventory destocking.
- Intensifying Competitive Pressure: The company faces aggressive competition, particularly in the North American construction market. Competitors, especially from China, have the advantage of lower labor costs and better access to raw materials and components, which can lead to market share loss and negatively impact Caterpillar's pricing power and profitability. Deere & Company and Komatsu are actively strengthening their presence in key markets, indicating escalating competitive challenges.
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There are two clear emerging threats for Caterpillar:
- Rapid Electrification of Heavy Equipment: A significant industry shift towards battery-electric and hydrogen-powered machinery, particularly in construction and mining. While Caterpillar is investing in these technologies, the swift pace of adoption, driven by environmental regulations, sustainability goals, and operating cost benefits, could disrupt its dominant position in diesel-powered equipment. Agile new entrants or existing competitors fully committing to electric fleets could gain market share rapidly, challenging Caterpillar's traditional product lines and potentially cannibalizing its legacy engine and equipment sales faster than its new electric offerings can compensate.
- Decarbonization and Shift Away from Fossil Fuels in Energy & Transportation: The global push for cleaner energy solutions, including renewable power generation (solar, wind) and advanced energy storage, poses a direct threat to Caterpillar's Energy & Transportation segment. This segment heavily relies on manufacturing and selling diesel and natural gas engines and generator sets. As industries, marine, and power generation sectors increasingly transition to alternative fuels (e.g., hydrogen) or completely bypass internal combustion engines in favor of electric grids powered by renewables, the demand for Caterpillar's traditional fossil fuel-based power solutions could decline significantly.
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Caterpillar (CAT) operates in several significant global markets for its main products and services.
Construction Equipment
The global construction equipment market size was valued at approximately USD 242.17 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 471.25 billion by 2033, demonstrating a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 8.7% from 2026 to 2033. Asia Pacific is noted as the dominant region in this market, holding a substantial share of the global revenue in 2025.
Mining Equipment
The global mining equipment market size was estimated at USD 95.97 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to grow to USD 150.11 billion by 2032, at a CAGR of 5.75% over the forecast period. Asia-Pacific leads the global mining equipment market, driven by significant mining activities, rapid industrialization, and large-scale infrastructure development projects in countries like China, India, and Australia.
Diesel and Natural Gas Engines
The global diesel engine market size reached USD 243.8 billion in 2025 and is expected to grow to USD 318.7 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 3.02% during the period of 2026-2034. For diesel engines specifically used for power generation, the global market size was valued at USD 49.9 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 93.1 billion by 2033, expanding at a CAGR of 8.2% from 2026 to 2033. Asia Pacific held the largest share of the diesel engine for power generation market in 2025.
Industrial Gas Turbines
The global industrial gas turbine market size was USD 9.55 billion in 2025 and is expected to increase from USD 9.85 billion in 2026 to USD 12.16 billion by 2034, at a CAGR of 2.67%. Another estimate places the global industrial gas turbine market at USD 7.3 billion in 2024, projected to grow to USD 12.2 billion in 2034 with a CAGR of 5.1% from 2025 to 2034. Asia-Pacific accounted for 45.60% of the global revenue in 2025.
Locomotives and Rail-related Products
The global locomotive market size was valued at USD 14.42 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 31.25 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 9.43% from 2026 to 2034. Asia Pacific dominated the global locomotive market with a share of 52.63% in 2025.
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Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key factors:
- Strong Backlog and Volume Growth: Caterpillar holds a record backlog of $51 billion, a significant portion of which is anticipated to be delivered within the next 12 months, providing substantial momentum and expected volume growth across all primary business segments.
- Increased Demand for Power Generation: The Energy & Transportation segment is poised for robust growth, particularly from rising energy demands for data centers and hyperscalers supporting cloud computing and generative AI. The company has secured large orders for generator sets for data center prime power, with deliveries scheduled through 2027.
- Growth in Services Revenue: Caterpillar is strategically accelerating its services revenue, targeting an annual figure of $28 billion by 2026. This growth is driven by repower programs, equipment upgrades, and long-term maintenance contracts, capitalizing on the company's extensive global dealer network and connected assets.
- Positive Price Realization: Caterpillar projects positive price realization, with approximately 2% favorable price adjustments contributing to sales growth across all three primary segments in 2026.
- Infrastructure Investment and Reshoring: The Construction Industries segment is expected to benefit from infrastructure tailwinds, including government funding (such as IIGJA funding), accelerated investment in data center construction, and reshoring initiatives in U.S. manufacturing, all of which are driving demand for construction equipment.
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Share Repurchases
- In June 2024, Caterpillar's Board of Directors increased its share repurchase authorization by $20 billion, bringing the total current authorization to approximately $21.8 billion. This authorization was initially launched in 2022 and has no expiration date.
- Caterpillar returned over $10 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends in 2024.
- In 2025, the company deployed $7.9 billion of cash for share repurchases and dividends.
Share Issuance
- The number of outstanding shares has consistently declined over the past few years, indicating net share repurchases rather than issuances.
- Caterpillar's shares outstanding were 467.98 million at the end of 2025, a 3.49% decline from 2024.
- Shares outstanding were 477.932 million in 2024, a 4.71% decrease from 2023.
Outbound Investments
- In October 2025, Caterpillar acquired RPMGlobal Holdings Limited, a provider of mine design, planning, and scheduling software, for $728 million.
- The company acquired Tangent Energy Solutions, Inc. in May 2022, focusing on energy usage monitoring solutions for commercial and industrial sectors.
- Caterpillar also acquired CarbonPoint Solutions in September 2021, a company specializing in carbon capture technology.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures increased consistently from 2021 to 2025, peaking at $4.286 billion in 2025.
- For 2026, projected capital expenditures are expected to be around $3.5 billion, primarily for capacity expansion.
- Caterpillar is making significant investments in advanced technologies such as autonomy, alternative fuels, connectivity, digital, and electrification to meet customer demands. Notably, in October 2025, a $725 million capital expansion was announced for its Lafayette, Indiana engine facility to boost engine production, particularly for data centers.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 377.99 |
| Mkt Cap | 80.2 |
| Rev LTM | 30,837 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,301 |
| FCF LTM | 2,885 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,391 |
| CFO LTM | 4,205 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,737 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -13.5% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -0.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 10.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 13.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 80.2 |
| P/S | 2.6 |
| P/Op Inc | 22.0 |
| P/EBIT | 21.2 |
| P/E | 34.2 |
| P/CFO | 18.1 |
| Total Yield | 4.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 5.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 12.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 35.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 68.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -2.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 5.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 23.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 5.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Power & Energy | 32,201 | 28,854 | 28,001 | 19,337 | 16,670 |
| Construction Industries | 25,060 | 25,455 | 27,418 | 25,127 | 21,994 |
| Resource Industries | 12,474 | 12,389 | 13,583 | 12,013 | 9,502 |
| Financial Products Segment | 4,220 | 4,053 | 3,785 | 3,253 | 3,073 |
| All Other Segment | 327 | 425 | 449 | 145 | 145 |
| Corporate Items and Eliminations | -6,693 | -6,367 | -6,176 | -448 | -413 |
| Total | 67,589 | 64,809 | 67,060 | 59,427 | 50,971 |
| $ Mil | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Construction & Mining Products | 1,150 | 538 | 431 | 526 | 639 |
| All Other | 655 | 350 | 323 | 248 | 233 |
| Financing & Insurance Services | 460 | 339 | 268 | 334 | 253 |
| North America Marketing | 434 | 177 | 64 | 54 | 79 |
| Power Products | 408 | -87 | 34 | 195 | 487 |
| EAME Marketing | 380 | 177 | 135 | 164 | 195 |
| Latin America Marketing | 180 | 62 | 72 | 59 | 43 |
| Asia/ Pacific Marketing | 133 | 115 | 113 | 18 | 39 |
| Total | 3,800 | 1,671 | 1,440 | 1,598 | 1,968 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financial Products Segment | 41,476 | 36,925 | 35,685 | 34,269 | 34,860 |
| Liabilities included in segment assets | 15,330 | 11,973 | 11,781 | 12,519 | 10,777 |
| Power & Energy | 11,387 | 11,772 | 10,555 | 9,455 | 9,253 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | 9,333 | 6,165 | 6,106 | 6,042 | 8,428 |
| Resource Industries | 6,087 | 5,548 | 5,742 | 5,775 | 5,962 |
| Construction Industries | 5,442 | 5,546 | 5,384 | 5,168 | 4,547 |
| Property, plant and equipment - net and other assets | 4,689 | 4,808 | 6,548 | 4,234 | 4,056 |
| Goodwill and intangible assets | 4,669 | 4,478 | 4,452 | 4,248 | 4,859 |
| Deferred income taxes | 2,749 | 3,194 | 2,668 | 2,098 | 1,735 |
| All Other Segment | 1,516 | 1,937 | 1,890 | 1,828 | 1,678 |
| Other | -471 | -1,022 | -166 | -630 | -706 |
| Inventory methodology differences | -3,622 | -3,560 | -3,169 | -3,063 | -2,656 |
| Total | 98,585 | 87,764 | 87,476 | 81,943 | 82,793 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $889.31 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 412.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/02/1962 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -16.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $925.86 | $723.29 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -3.9% | 23.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 48.4% | 38.2% |
| Downside Capture | 257.91 | 150.57 |
| Upside Capture | 245.68 | 209.44 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 56.2% | 56.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.11 | 2.01 | 1.96 | 1.86 | 1.68 | 1.26 |
| Up Beta | 0.56 | 1.24 | 1.97 | 2.08 | 1.59 | 1.16 |
| Down Beta | 2.77 | 1.86 | 1.99 | 1.74 | 1.62 | 1.21 |
| Up Capture | 419% | 302% | 277% | 334% | 403% | 425% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 15 | 24 | 40 | 73 | 146 | 413 |
| Down Capture | 118% | 188% | 152% | 120% | 118% | 104% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 6 | 17 | 23 | 52 | 106 | 338 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CAT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAT | 119.5% | 38.1% | 2.13 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 20.0% | 16.6% | 0.92 | 75.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 20.0% | 12.6% | 1.16 | 56.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.2% | 28.1% | 0.67 | 26.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 33.0% | 19.1% | 1.36 | -8.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.9% | 14.0% | 0.70 | 11.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -43.6% | 42.9% | -1.21 | 25.9% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CAT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAT | 35.7% | 31.4% | 1.01 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.4% | 17.6% | 0.60 | 74.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.58 | 57.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.3% | 18.4% | 0.76 | 15.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.3% | 19.5% | 0.37 | 25.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.7% | 18.9% | 0.04 | 37.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 15.2% | 53.5% | 0.46 | 23.6% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CAT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAT | 30.2% | 31.2% | 0.91 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.8% | 20.0% | 0.61 | 76.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 63.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.5% | 16.1% | 0.58 | 7.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.1% | 17.9% | 0.31 | 31.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 42.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.5% | 66.2% | 0.99 | 15.8% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/3/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/30/2026 | 9.9% | 14.4% | 8.1% |
| 1/29/2026 | 3.4% | 7.5% | 15.5% |
| 10/29/2025 | 11.6% | 4.4% | 9.4% |
| 8/5/2025 | 0.1% | -5.8% | -4.3% |
| 4/30/2025 | 0.6% | 4.4% | 14.4% |
| 1/30/2025 | -4.6% | -8.7% | -12.5% |
| 10/30/2024 | -2.1% | -1.1% | 4.2% |
| 8/6/2024 | 3.0% | 6.1% | 6.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 13 | 16 |
| # Negative | 14 | 11 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 3.7% | 4.4% | 6.1% |
| Median Negative | -3.0% | -3.9% | -4.2% |
| Max Positive | 11.6% | 14.4% | 19.7% |
| Max Negative | -7.0% | -8.9% | -12.5% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/30/2026 | 9.9% | 14.4% | 8.1% |
| 1/29/2026 | 3.4% | 7.5% | 15.5% |
| 10/29/2025 | 11.6% | 4.4% | 9.4% |
| 8/5/2025 | 0.1% | -5.8% | -4.3% |
| 4/30/2025 | 0.6% | 4.4% | 14.4% |
| 1/30/2025 | -4.6% | -8.7% | -12.5% |
| 10/30/2024 | -2.1% | -1.1% | 4.2% |
| 8/6/2024 | 3.0% | 6.1% | 6.3% |
| 4/25/2024 | -7.0% | -8.9% | -3.5% |
| 2/5/2024 | 2.0% | 0.7% | 5.9% |
| 10/31/2023 | -6.7% | -1.6% | 3.0% |
| 8/1/2023 | 8.9% | 6.2% | 5.6% |
| 4/27/2023 | -0.9% | -0.3% | -2.9% |
| 1/31/2023 | -3.5% | -3.9% | -4.9% |
| 10/27/2022 | 7.7% | 8.9% | 19.7% |
| 8/2/2022 | -5.8% | -4.6% | -4.1% |
| 4/28/2022 | -0.7% | 4.0% | -0.5% |
| 1/28/2022 | -5.2% | -5.5% | -11.6% |
| 10/28/2021 | 4.1% | 3.8% | 1.3% |
| 7/30/2021 | -2.7% | -2.5% | 0.1% |
| 4/29/2021 | -2.1% | 2.4% | 3.9% |
| 1/29/2021 | -0.8% | 4.0% | 19.2% |
| 10/27/2020 | -3.2% | 0.0% | 8.4% |
| 7/31/2020 | -2.8% | -1.7% | 5.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 13 | 16 |
| # Negative | 14 | 11 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 3.7% | 4.4% | 6.1% |
| Median Negative | -3.0% | -3.9% | -4.2% |
| Max Positive | 11.6% | 14.4% | 19.7% |
| Max Negative | -7.0% | -8.9% | -12.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/13/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/03/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/16/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/15/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/13/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/03/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/16/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/15/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/16/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/17/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/04/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/19/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/31/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/01/2019 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Updated 7/1/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johnson, Denise C | Group President | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 907.91 | 12,605 | 11,444,170 | 45,236,474 | Form |
| 2 | Johnson, Denise C | Group President | Direct | Sell | 5142026 | 909.79 | 6,196 | 5,637,081 | 45,330,466 | Form |
| 3 | Schaupp, William E | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 5142026 | 906.00 | 360 | 326,160 | 480,180 | Form |
| 4 | Fassino, Anthony D | Group President | Direct | Sell | 5122026 | 916.80 | 16,283 | 14,928,266 | 42,210,423 | Form |
| 5 | De, Lange Bob | Group President | Direct | Sell | 5072026 | 922.92 | 24,222 | 22,354,978 | 79,397,919 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johnson, Denise C | Group President | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 907.91 | 12,605 | 11,444,170 | 45,236,474 | Form |
| 2 | Johnson, Denise C | Group President | Direct | Sell | 5142026 | 909.79 | 6,196 | 5,637,081 | 45,330,466 | Form |
| 3 | Schaupp, William E | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 5142026 | 906.00 | 360 | 326,160 | 480,180 | Form |
| 4 | Fassino, Anthony D | Group President | Direct | Sell | 5122026 | 916.80 | 16,283 | 14,928,266 | 42,210,423 | Form |
| 5 | De, Lange Bob | Group President | Direct | Sell | 5072026 | 922.92 | 24,222 | 22,354,978 | 79,397,919 | Form |
| 6 | Fassino, Anthony D | Group President | Direct | Sell | 5072026 | 926.25 | 9,152 | 8,477,067 | 42,645,612 | Form |
| 7 | Bonfield, Andrew R J | CFO Emeritus | Direct | Sell | 5072026 | 918.71 | 15,674 | 14,399,861 | 48,631,914 | Form |
| 8 | Kaiser, Jason | Group President | Direct | Sell | 5052026 | 883.03 | 5,642 | 4,982,055 | 8,471,790 | Form |
| 9 | MacLennan, David | Direct | Buy | 5052026 | 876.84 | 250 | 219,210 | 7,195,349 | Form | |
| 10 | Creed, Joseph E | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 3062026 | 718.93 | 2,500 | 1,797,317 | 25,222,107 | Form |
| 11 | Shurman, Rodney Michael | Group President | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 759.61 | 2,278 | 1,730,392 | 1,096,117 | Form |
| 12 | Shurman, Rodney Michael | Group President | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 763.39 | 1,764 | 1,346,620 | 1,099,282 | Form |
| 13 | Schaupp, William E | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 764.20 | 972 | 742,802 | 629,701 | Form |
| 14 | Fassino, Anthony D | Group President | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 776.90 | 7,891 | 6,130,518 | 36,236,947 | Form |
| 15 | Kaiser, Jason | Group President | Direct | Sell | 2132026 | 776.70 | 1,690 | 1,312,623 | 6,726,999 | Form |
| 16 | De, Lange Bob | Group President | Direct | Sell | 2132026 | 767.08 | 12,507 | 9,593,870 | 65,199,499 | Form |
| 17 | De, Lange Bob | Group President | Direct | Sell | 2092026 | 720.11 | 22,656 | 16,314,812 | 57,574,955 | Form |
| 18 | Fassino, Anthony D | Group President | Direct | Sell | 2092026 | 722.15 | 6,033 | 4,356,731 | 29,717,195 | Form |
| 19 | De, Lange Bob | Group President | Direct | Sell | 2052026 | 704.97 | 16,070 | 11,328,811 | 56,364,183 | Form |
| 20 | Fassino, Anthony D | Group President | Direct | Sell | 2032026 | 680.45 | 10,671 | 7,261,082 | 28,001,198 | Form |
| 21 | De, Lange Bob | Group President | Direct | Sell | 2032026 | 682.99 | 15,977 | 10,912,131 | 54,607,099 | Form |
| 22 | Bonfield, Andrew R J | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 1052026 | 575.06 | 10,000 | 5,750,589 | 26,142,178 | Form |
| 23 | Bonfield, Andrew R J | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 12022025 | 571.44 | 10,000 | 5,714,448 | 31,692,328 | Form |
| 24 | Kaiser, Jason | Group President | Direct | Sell | 11132025 | 563.60 | 10,707 | 6,034,490 | 4,874,597 | Form |
| 25 | Fassino, Anthony D | Group President | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 570.18 | 8,184 | 4,666,353 | 23,669,312 | Form |
| 26 | De, Lange Bob | Group President | Direct | Sell | 11072025 | 562.36 | 14,638 | 8,231,826 | 45,106,333 | Form |
| 27 | MacLennan, David | Direct | Buy | 11062025 | 568.86 | 300 | 170,658 | 4,520,730 | Form | |
| 28 | Schaupp, William E | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 11062025 | 572.22 | 1,200 | 686,664 | 757,047 | Form |
| 29 | Umpleby, Iii Donald J | Executive Chairman | Direct | Sell | 10142025 | 505.29 | 17,166 | 8,673,808 | 226,457,335 | Form |
| 30 | Umpleby, Iii Donald J | Executive Chairman | Direct | Sell | 9232025 | 462.65 | 17,166 | 7,941,850 | 215,289,088 | Form |
| 31 | Umpleby, Iii Donald J | Executive Chairman | Direct | Sell | 9032025 | 412.87 | 17,168 | 7,088,152 | 199,211,839 | Form |
| 32 | Schwab, Susan C | Direct | Sell | 8192025 | 410.00 | 2,324 | 952,840 | 2,835,970 | Form | |
| 33 | Kaiser, Jason | Group President | Direct | Sell | 8132025 | 417.70 | 2,161 | 902,650 | 3,605,586 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Jul 23, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gates Foundation Trust | $4.5 Bil | 14.2% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| Westchester Capital Management, Inc. | $41.7 Mil | 8.4% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Regents Gate Capital LLP | $17.7 Mil | 3.8% | 36 | New | 13F |
| Minneapolis Portfolio Management Group, LLC | $35.2 Mil | 3.7% | 33 | TRIM -28.1% | 13F |
| Oribel Capital Management, LP | $21.3 Mil | 3.2% | 41 | New | 13F |
| DKRT Investments Corp. | $10.6 Mil | 2.7% | 48 | Hold | 13F |
| Cumberland Advisors Inc | $6.7 Mil | 2.6% | 48 | Hold | 13F |
| Blackhill Capital Inc | $42.2 Mil | 2.2% | 49 | Hold | 13F |
| Albar Capital Partners LLP | $10.7 Mil | 1.7% | 36 | TRIM -71.1% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electron Capital Partners, LLC | $42.8 Mil | 2.0% | 40 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Generali Powszechne Towarzystwo Emerytalne | $14.4 Mil | 2.5% | 30 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Albar Capital Partners LLP | $10.7 Mil | 1.7% | 36 | TRIM -71.1% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Minneapolis Portfolio Management Group, LLC | $35.2 Mil | 3.7% | 33 | TRIM -28.1% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gates Foundation Trust | $4.5 Bil | 14.2% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| Blackhill Capital Inc | $42.2 Mil | 2.2% | 49 | Hold | 13F |
| Westchester Capital Management, Inc. | $41.7 Mil | 8.4% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Minneapolis Portfolio Management Group, LLC | $35.2 Mil | 3.7% | 33 | TRIM -28.1% | 13F |
| Oribel Capital Management, LP | $21.3 Mil | 3.2% | 41 | New | 13F |
| Regents Gate Capital LLP | $17.7 Mil | 3.8% | 36 | New | 13F |
| Albar Capital Partners LLP | $10.7 Mil | 1.7% | 36 | TRIM -71.1% | 13F |
| DKRT Investments Corp. | $10.6 Mil | 2.7% | 48 | Hold | 13F |
| Cumberland Advisors Inc | $6.7 Mil | 2.6% | 48 | Hold | 13F |
CAT Trade Sentinel
High Conviction
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is high, anchored by a record $63 billion order backlog that provides exceptional multi-year revenue visibility. The company is successfully capturing a durable, secular growth trend as a critical power supplier to the global data center buildout. This is confirmed by multi-gigawatt orders and a funded plan to nearly triple key engine capacity.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Backlog-Driven Manufacturing(Volume of Equipment & Services Sold) x (Average Realized Price) Operating leverage from higher production volumes and favorable price/cost spread, particularly in the capacity-constrained Power & Energy segment.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests a structural shift, layering secular data center growth onto a healthy cyclical business.
- Order backlog grew to a record $63 billion in Q1 2026, up 79% year-over-year.
- Large reciprocating engine backlog has grown by more than 3.5x since January 2024.
- Company is increasing large engine capacity to nearly 3x 2024 levels to meet demand.
- Full-year 2026 sales growth guidance was raised to 'low double-digit growth'.
- Power & Energy retail sales grew a robust 32% in Q1 2026.
PRIMARY RISK
Significant, quantified tariff headwinds and sharp margin declines in the Resource Industries segment could erode profitability, offsetting top-line gains and de-rating the stock.
- Company expects $2.2 billion to $2.4 billion in tariff costs for full-year 2026.
- Resource Industries' Q1 operating margin fell to 10.0% from 17.0% a year prior.
- Trailing-twelve-month operating margin compressed to 16.5% from 19.2% a year ago.
- Construction Industries' Q1 retail sales growth of 7% decelerated.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Order Backlog | $63 billion as of Q1 2026 - Accelerating | The order backlog has reached a record level, with management noting that all three primary segments contributed to both the year-over-year and sequential growth. This indicates broad-based demand strength, not just concentration in one area. |
| Sales to Users (Retail Statistics) | In Q1 2026, Sales to Users grew 7% in Construction Industries, 6% in Resource Industries, and a robust 32% in Power & Energy. - Stable | End-market demand remains healthy across the board. Construction Industries saw its fifth consecutive quarter of growth. The rebound in Resource Industries is a positive signal after a weak prior quarter, and Power & Energy continues to be the primary growth engine. |
| Sales to Users Growth (Retail Statistics) | Power & Energy: +32%, Construction Industries: +7%, Resource Industries: +6% (Q1 FY2026) | Measures end-market demand at the dealer level, providing a more direct view of customer activity than factory shipments, which can be affected by inventory changes. |
Secular Power Growth vs. Cyclical Margin Squeeze
BULL VIEW
The Power & Energy segment's secular growth, evidenced by a 3.5x increase in its engine backlog, will drive revenue and profit growth that far outweighs temporary margin pressures from tariffs.
CORE TENSION
Can the record $63 billion backlog offset the $2.2 billion tariff headwind, which drove the recent 10.0% post-earnings stock rally?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bull view. The company raised its full-year sales guidance despite the known tariff impact, signaling confidence that volume and price can overcome the cost pressures.
BEAR VIEW
The $2.2 billion tariff impact and the margin collapse in Resource Industries to 10.0% are signs of deep cyclical pressure that will overwhelm the data center story and lead to earnings misses.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Aug. 4, 2026 | Tariff Impact Worsens In Q2 Results Watch: Q2 tariff cost figure versus implied run-rate; management commentary on mitigation progress and second-half outlook. |
Aug. 4, 2026 | Resource Industries Margin Fails To Recover Watch: Resource Industries segment operating margin and management's explanation for any continued weakness or recovery. |
Aug. 19, 2026 | Quarterly Dividend Payment Watch: Dividend of $1.63 per share is scheduled to be paid to shareholders. |
8/20/2026 | Peer Report Signals Market Slowdown Watch: Deere's construction segment guidance and commentary on large ag equipment demand and inventory levels. |
8/20/2026 | Peer Deere Earnings Report Watch: Peer Deere (DE) is scheduled to report its quarterly earnings. |
10/19/2026 | Peer PACCAR Earnings Report Watch: Peer PACCAR (PCAR) is scheduled to report its quarterly earnings. |
10/27/2026 | Third Quarter Earnings Report Watch: Caterpillar is scheduled to report its third-quarter 2026 earnings. |
Tuesday, Aug. 4 | Second Quarter Earnings Report Watch: Caterpillar to release second-quarter 2026 financial results and hold an earnings call with investors. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-07-07 | Acquires Skycatch For Mining Tech Details: Caterpillar acquired Skycatch, Inc., a provider of spatial data capture and analysis solutions, to enhance its data-driven mining technology portfolio following the RPMGlobal acquisition. | -2.3% $968.12 -> $946.32 |
2026-06-10 | Increases Quarterly Dividend Details: The Board of Directors approved an eight percent increase in the quarterly dividend, payable on Aug. 19, 2026. | -1.9% $913.01 -> $895.97 |
2026-04-30 | Reports Strong Q1, Raises Guidance Details: Q1 2026 sales increased 22% to $17.4 billion. The company raised its full-year 2026 sales growth outlook to "low double-digit growth." The stock reacted +10.0%. | +9.8% $808.55 -> $888.02 |
2026-04-30 | Acquires Mining Software Firm Details: Resource Industries completed the acquisition of RPMGlobal in February, a leader in mining software technology, to strengthen its ability to deliver integrated solutions for customers. | +9.8% $808.55 -> $888.02 |
2026-04-29 | Secures Another Large Power Deal Details: PROPWR business unit entered a strategic framework agreement with Caterpillar to purchase up to 2.1 Gigawatts of incremental power generation capacity by 2031. | +8.8% $816.36 -> $888.46 |
2026-01-29 | Reports Record 2025 Results Details: Full-year 2025 sales reached a record $67.6 billion with adjusted profit per share of $19.06. The stock had a two-day reaction of +2.0% following the announcement. | +2.2% $640.87 -> $654.90 |
2026-01-28 | Announces Major Power Gen Alliance Details: Caterpillar formed a strategic alliance with American Intelligence & Power Corporation to deploy 2 Gigawatts of power for a hyperscale AI infrastructure project, the Monarch Compute Campus. | +4.1% $636.52 -> $662.75 |
Position Sizing
2% - 4%
REDUCED POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: CAT trades at roughly 51% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 15% for the S&P 500 (3.4x the market), around the 100th percentile of its own trailing year. A 2% - 4% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
DE - Deere & Company
Agricultural Cycle ExposureDeere provides exposure to different end-markets, particularly agriculture, which may offer diversification from CAT's construction and mining cycles. Its trailing-twelve-month gross margin of 34.6% is higher than CAT's.
CMI - Cummins Inc.
Pure-Play Power SystemsCummins is a more focused competitor in the Power & Energy segment, offering a pure-play investment on engine and power generation technology without the cyclicality of construction and mining equipment.
A cyclical industrial leader capturing a secular growth wave as a critical supplier to the global data center and energy infrastructure build-out.
Caterpillar is experiencing a dual-engine growth story. Its traditional cyclical businesses in construction and mining are healthy, supported by infrastructure spending and commodity demand. Simultaneously, its Power & Energy segment is seeing explosive, record-breaking demand driven by the power needs of AI and data centers, transforming a portion of its business into a secular growth narrative with long-term visibility.
Continued multi-billion dollar orders for power generation, especially for data centers; sustained backlog growth; and continued favorable price realization.
A sharp downturn in data center capital spending, a global recession impacting construction and mining demand, or an inability to execute on its massive capacity expansion plans.
Quarter-to-quarter fluctuations in dealer inventory levels, which can be seasonal and do not always reflect underlying end-user demand.
Repricing Catalyst
The market's re-evaluation of Caterpillar from a pure cyclical industrial to a company with a significant, high-visibility secular growth driver in its Power & Energy segment, evidenced by the record backlog and aggressive capacity expansion plans.
Power & Energy
$33.4B TTM (47% of Total)What It Is
Sells reciprocating engines, generator sets, turbines, and locomotives to customers in oil and gas, power generation (including data centers), industrial, marine, and rail applications.
Who Pays & How
Enterprises in the energy, transportation, and industrial sectors pay for reliable and efficient power solutions. Data center operators are a key growth driver, purchasing generator sets for both backup and prime power to support expansion related to cloud computing and AI.
Competition
Construction Industries
$27.0B TTM (38% of Total)What It Is
Sells a portfolio of construction machinery including excavators, loaders, and tractors to customers in infrastructure, building construction, rental, and quarry and aggregates industries.
Who Pays & How
Construction contractors and rental companies pay for equipment that offers high productivity and low owning and operating costs. In developing economies, purchase price can be a primary factor.
Competition
Resource Industries
$12.6B TTM (18% of Total)What It Is
Sells large-scale machinery and technology for surface and underground mining, heavy construction, and quarry applications. Products include large mining trucks, electric rope shovels, and autonomous hauling solutions.
Who Pays & How
Mining and heavy construction companies pay for highly productive and reliable equipment that provides the lowest total cost of ownership. Technology products for fleet management and autonomy are also sold to improve safety and productivity.
Competition
Financial Products Segment
$4.3B TTM (6% of Total)What It Is
Provides retail and wholesale financing and leasing alternatives to customers and dealers for Caterpillar products. Also offers insurance and risk management products.
Who Pays & How
Customers and dealers use financing to purchase and lease Caterpillar equipment. These financing options are designed to support the sale of Caterpillar products.
Competition
Caterpillar — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
| IndustryWeek |
| Manufacturing.net |
| Aviation Week |
| Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment Resources |
| Equipment World |
| Construction Equipment |
| OEM Off-Highway |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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