American Airlines (AAL)
Market Price (9/4/2026): $13.02 | Market Cap: $8.6 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Passenger Airlines
American Airlines (AAL)
Market Price (9/4/2026): $13.02Market Cap: $8.6 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Passenger Airlines
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 4.4 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 48% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Sustainable Transportation, and Digital Transformation of Travel. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -14%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -85% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 326% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.1% Key risksAAL key risks include its [1] substantial debt load of approximately $36.8 billion, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 4.4 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 48% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Sustainable Transportation, and Digital Transformation of Travel. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -14%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -85% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 326% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.1% |
| Key risksAAL key risks include its [1] substantial debt load of approximately $36.8 billion, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Updated on 9/1/2026
American Airlines (AAL) stock has lost about 10% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Lowered Fiscal Q3 2026 and Full-Year 2026 Earnings Outlook Despite Record Revenue. American Airlines reported record revenue of $16.7 billion for fiscal Q2 2026, a 16.3% increase year-over-year. However, adjusted net income significantly declined by 84.2% year-over-year to $99 million (adjusted EPS of $0.15) in fiscal Q2 2026, compared to $599 million (adjusted EPS of $0.95) in fiscal Q2 2025. This sharp decline in profitability prompted the company to substantially cut its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to a wide range of -$0.65 to $0.65, a significant reduction from prior, more optimistic forecasts. Additionally, American Airlines issued a cautious outlook for fiscal Q3 2026, projecting an adjusted EPS loss between ($0.70) and ($0.10). This revised and more conservative profit outlook, despite strong top-line growth, weighed heavily on investor sentiment.
2. Soaring Fuel Costs Eroded Profitability. A primary factor impacting American Airlines' financial performance was a significant surge in fuel expenses. In fiscal Q2 2026, aircraft fuel expense increased by over $2.2 billion, representing an 83.3% year-over-year rise, which pushed the average fuel price to $4.05 per gallon. American Airlines has not utilized fuel hedges since its March 2026 disclosure, leaving it fully exposed to volatile crude oil prices and resulting in a nearly $6 billion year-over-year fuel headwind. The company also projected that its fiscal Q3 2026 fuel expense would be approximately $700 million higher than initial forecasts, further stressing its margins. This macroeconomic trend directly translated into decreased profitability for the airline.
Show more
American Airlines (AAL) stock has lost about 10% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Lowered Fiscal Q3 2026 and Full-Year 2026 Earnings Outlook Despite Record Revenue. American Airlines reported record revenue of $16.7 billion for fiscal Q2 2026, a 16.3% increase year-over-year. However, adjusted net income significantly declined by 84.2% year-over-year to $99 million (adjusted EPS of $0.15) in fiscal Q2 2026, compared to $599 million (adjusted EPS of $0.95) in fiscal Q2 2025. This sharp decline in profitability prompted the company to substantially cut its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to a wide range of -$0.65 to $0.65, a significant reduction from prior, more optimistic forecasts. Additionally, American Airlines issued a cautious outlook for fiscal Q3 2026, projecting an adjusted EPS loss between ($0.70) and ($0.10). This revised and more conservative profit outlook, despite strong top-line growth, weighed heavily on investor sentiment.
2. Soaring Fuel Costs Eroded Profitability. A primary factor impacting American Airlines' financial performance was a significant surge in fuel expenses. In fiscal Q2 2026, aircraft fuel expense increased by over $2.2 billion, representing an 83.3% year-over-year rise, which pushed the average fuel price to $4.05 per gallon. American Airlines has not utilized fuel hedges since its March 2026 disclosure, leaving it fully exposed to volatile crude oil prices and resulting in a nearly $6 billion year-over-year fuel headwind. The company also projected that its fiscal Q3 2026 fuel expense would be approximately $700 million higher than initial forecasts, further stressing its margins. This macroeconomic trend directly translated into decreased profitability for the airline.
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Updated on 9/1/2026
American Airlines (AAL) stock has lost about 10% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Lowered Fiscal Q3 2026 and Full-Year 2026 Earnings Outlook Despite Record Revenue. American Airlines reported record revenue of $16.7 billion for fiscal Q2 2026, a 16.3% increase year-over-year. However, adjusted net income significantly declined by 84.2% year-over-year to $99 million (adjusted EPS of $0.15) in fiscal Q2 2026, compared to $599 million (adjusted EPS of $0.95) in fiscal Q2 2025. This sharp decline in profitability prompted the company to substantially cut its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to a wide range of -$0.65 to $0.65, a significant reduction from prior, more optimistic forecasts. Additionally, American Airlines issued a cautious outlook for fiscal Q3 2026, projecting an adjusted EPS loss between ($0.70) and ($0.10). This revised and more conservative profit outlook, despite strong top-line growth, weighed heavily on investor sentiment.
2. Soaring Fuel Costs Eroded Profitability. A primary factor impacting American Airlines' financial performance was a significant surge in fuel expenses. In fiscal Q2 2026, aircraft fuel expense increased by over $2.2 billion, representing an 83.3% year-over-year rise, which pushed the average fuel price to $4.05 per gallon. American Airlines has not utilized fuel hedges since its March 2026 disclosure, leaving it fully exposed to volatile crude oil prices and resulting in a nearly $6 billion year-over-year fuel headwind. The company also projected that its fiscal Q3 2026 fuel expense would be approximately $700 million higher than initial forecasts, further stressing its margins. This macroeconomic trend directly translated into decreased profitability for the airline.
3. Persistent High Debt and Negative Equity. American Airlines continues to face significant financial risks due to its substantial debt load of $28.6 billion and negative equity of $4.0 billion. This considerable leverage makes the company particularly susceptible to external shocks, such as the ongoing rise in fuel costs, and can limit its financial flexibility. These long-standing balance sheet concerns contribute to a cautious outlook among investors regarding the company's long-term financial health and ability to withstand industry pressures.
Show less
American Airlines (AAL) stock has lost about 10% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Lowered Fiscal Q3 2026 and Full-Year 2026 Earnings Outlook Despite Record Revenue. American Airlines reported record revenue of $16.7 billion for fiscal Q2 2026, a 16.3% increase year-over-year. However, adjusted net income significantly declined by 84.2% year-over-year to $99 million (adjusted EPS of $0.15) in fiscal Q2 2026, compared to $599 million (adjusted EPS of $0.95) in fiscal Q2 2025. This sharp decline in profitability prompted the company to substantially cut its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to a wide range of -$0.65 to $0.65, a significant reduction from prior, more optimistic forecasts. Additionally, American Airlines issued a cautious outlook for fiscal Q3 2026, projecting an adjusted EPS loss between ($0.70) and ($0.10). This revised and more conservative profit outlook, despite strong top-line growth, weighed heavily on investor sentiment.
2. Soaring Fuel Costs Eroded Profitability. A primary factor impacting American Airlines' financial performance was a significant surge in fuel expenses. In fiscal Q2 2026, aircraft fuel expense increased by over $2.2 billion, representing an 83.3% year-over-year rise, which pushed the average fuel price to $4.05 per gallon. American Airlines has not utilized fuel hedges since its March 2026 disclosure, leaving it fully exposed to volatile crude oil prices and resulting in a nearly $6 billion year-over-year fuel headwind. The company also projected that its fiscal Q3 2026 fuel expense would be approximately $700 million higher than initial forecasts, further stressing its margins. This macroeconomic trend directly translated into decreased profitability for the airline.
3. Persistent High Debt and Negative Equity. American Airlines continues to face significant financial risks due to its substantial debt load of $28.6 billion and negative equity of $4.0 billion. This considerable leverage makes the company particularly susceptible to external shocks, such as the ongoing rise in fuel costs, and can limit its financial flexibility. These long-standing balance sheet concerns contribute to a cautious outlook among investors regarding the company's long-term financial health and ability to withstand industry pressures.
Show less
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -11.4% change in AAL stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/3/2026 was primarily driven by a -14.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 14.64 | 12.97 | -11.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 55,994 | 58,337 | 4.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.2 | 0.1 | -14.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 661 | 662 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -11.4% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AAL | -11.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.2% | 48.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | 0.8% | 46.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -0.8% change in AAL stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/3/2026 was primarily driven by a -6.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 9032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 13.07 | 12.97 | -0.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 54,633 | 58,337 | 6.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.2 | 0.1 | -6.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 660 | 662 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -0.8% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AAL | -0.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.0% | 57.7% |
| Sector (XLI) | -1.2% | 55.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -3.0% change in AAL stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/3/2026 was primarily driven by a -9.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 9032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 13.37 | 12.97 | -3.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 54,250 | 58,337 | 7.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.2 | 0.1 | -9.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 660 | 662 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -3.0% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AAL | -3.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.9% | 49.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 16.0% | 48.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -11.9% change in AAL stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/3/2026 was primarily driven by a -19.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312023 | 9032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 14.73 | 12.97 | -11.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 52,894 | 58,337 | 10.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.2 | 0.1 | -19.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 654 | 662 | -1.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -11.9% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AAL | -11.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 77.7% | 52.7% |
| Sector (XLI) | 68.0% | 52.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AAL Return | 14% | -29% | 8% | 27% | -12% | -14% | -17% |
| Peers Return | -2% | -25% | -1% | 63% | -2% | -2% | 15% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 104% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AAL Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 43% | 47% | 43% | 65% | 52% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 44% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AAL Max Drawdown | -37% | -41% | -42% | -41% | -51% | -36% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -38% | -42% | -45% | -32% | -47% | -33% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: DAL, UAL, LUV, ALK, JBLU. See AAL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/3/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AAL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -43.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.4% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 258 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -17.0% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.4% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 33 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.4% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 52.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 405 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -22.8% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.6% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -36.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 288 days | 427 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -18.7% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 23.0% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 280 days | 62 days |
In The Past
American Airlines's stock fell -43.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 76.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
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| Event | AAL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -43.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.4% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 258 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.4% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 52.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 405 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -22.8% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.6% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -36.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 288 days | 427 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -26.5% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.0% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 10 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -31.9% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.9% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -88.8% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 793.2% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1702 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -26.7% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.5% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2368 days | 47 days |
In The Past
American Airlines's stock fell -43.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 76.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About American Airlines (AAL)
American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) operates as a major network air carrier, providing essential scheduled air transportation services. The company's core business involves transporting both passengers and cargo across an extensive network, making it a critical player in global and domestic travel and logistics.
The company serves its primary customers—travelers and businesses needing air freight—through a strategic network of hubs located in key U.S. cities such as Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix, and Washington, D.C. American Airlines further extends its market reach internationally through partner gateways in global cities like London, Madrid, Seattle/Tacoma, Sydney, and Tokyo, connecting diverse markets worldwide.
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Here are a couple of analogies for American Airlines:
- American Airlines is like the Walmart for air travel, providing widespread, large-scale transportation across a vast network.
- American Airlines is similar to Amazon for air transportation, operating a massive logistical network to move people and cargo globally.
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Major services provided by American Airlines (AAL):
- Scheduled Air Transportation for Passengers: Providing commercial flights for individuals traveling between various domestic and international destinations.
- Scheduled Air Transportation for Cargo: Transporting freight, mail, and other goods through its air network.
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Major Customers of American Airlines (AAL)
American Airlines primarily sells its services directly to individuals and businesses, rather than to a few major corporate customers. The company serves a diverse customer base for both passenger travel and cargo.
Its primary customer categories are:
- Leisure Travelers: Individuals traveling for personal reasons such as vacations, family visits, or other non-business purposes.
- Business Travelers: Individuals traveling for professional purposes, often on behalf of their employers, for meetings, conferences, corporate events, or work-related assignments.
- Cargo Customers: Businesses, including freight forwarders, logistics companies, and various industries that require air transportation for goods, packages, and other cargo.
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- Boeing (BA)
- Airbus (EADSY)
- General Electric (GE)
- Raytheon Technologies (RTX)
- Rolls-Royce Holdings plc (RYCEY)
- Safran S.A. (SAFRY)
- Sabre Corporation (SABR)
- Amadeus IT Group S.A. (AMADY)
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Robert Isom – Chief Executive Officer
Robert Isom is the Chief Executive Officer of American Airlines Group and its subsidiary American Airlines, a role he assumed in March 2022. He also serves on the airline's board of directors. Isom joined American Airlines in 2013 following the merger of US Airways and American Airlines, where he had served as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of US Airways. Prior to that, he held senior executive finance, commercial, operations, strategy, and international roles at GMAC, LLC, Northwest Airlines, and America West Airlines. He began his career at The Procter & Gamble Company. During his career, he was chief restructuring officer of GMAC, LLC.
Devon May – Chief Financial Officer
Devon May was named Chief Financial Officer of American Airlines, effective January 1, 2023. In this role, he oversees all global corporate risk, corporate development, and corporate financial functions. May joined America West in 2002 and has over 20 years of airline industry experience across finance, operations, network planning, and alliances. Before his appointment as CFO, he served as Senior Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations, and previously as Senior Vice President of Finance and American Eagle, and Senior Vice President of Network Strategy. Prior to joining American Airlines in 2013, he was Vice President of Financial Planning and Analysis at US Airways, and held Director or Managing Director roles in Alliances, Network Planning, Financial Planning, and Financial Analysis at America West Airlines.
Steve Johnson – Vice Chair and Chief Strategy Officer
Steve Johnson is the Vice Chair and Chief Strategy Officer at American Airlines Group Inc., a position he has held since May 2023. He leads the design and development of strategies across the airline and focuses on the economy and its impact on the business. Johnson joined America West Airlines in 1995, holding various positions including Executive Vice President – Corporate. From 2003 to 2009, he was a partner at Indigo Partners, a private equity firm specializing in airline industry investments. He later joined US Airways in 2009.
Ganesh Jayaram – Chief Digital and Information Officer
Ganesh Jayaram serves as the Chief Digital and Information Officer at American Airlines. In this role, he is responsible for all technology efforts.
Cole Brown – Chief People Officer
Cole Brown is American's Chief People Officer. She leads all aspects of the airline's People organization.
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Key Risks to American Airlines (AAL)
- High Debt Levels and Fragile Financial Stability: American Airlines faces significant risks due to its substantial debt burden and overall financial fragility. The company's debt-to-equity ratio is notably high, and its interest coverage ratio is extremely low, indicating that earnings are often insufficient to cover interest expenses, potentially leading to further debt issuance.
- Volatility in Fuel Prices and Operational Costs: The airline's profitability is highly sensitive to fluctuating fuel prices and other significant operational costs. American Airlines has historically incurred higher average fuel costs per gallon compared to some of its major U.S. peers, exacerbating this risk.
- Sensitivity to Economic Downturns and Geopolitical Events: American Airlines has demonstrated a poorer ability to withstand economic downturns compared to the broader market. Additionally, geopolitical risks, such as conflicts, can increase fuel costs and complicate travel routes, impacting market forecasts and operational expectations.
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The emergence of Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) or electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing (eVTOL) aircraft poses a clear emerging threat to American Airlines.
These new aircraft are designed for short-to-medium distance travel, potentially offering faster, more direct, and potentially more environmentally friendly alternatives for regional and feeder routes that currently comprise a portion of American Airlines' domestic network. As eVTOL technology advances and becomes commercially viable (with companies actively developing and testing these aircraft for market entry in the coming years), it could disrupt conventional short-haul air travel and ground transportation to/from major hubs. This parallels historical disruptions where a new technology or service model (like Uber for taxis or Netflix for Blockbuster) offered a superior or more convenient alternative for specific market segments.
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The addressable markets for American Airlines' main products and services, which include passenger and cargo air transportation, are substantial across global and North American regions.
Passenger Air Transportation Market
- Globally, the passenger air transport market was valued at approximately USD 830.72 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach around USD 1,859.54 billion by 2032, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 12.2%. Other estimates indicate the global passenger air transport market will grow from USD 870.78 billion in 2025 to USD 925.84 billion in 2026 at a CAGR of 6.3%, and is expected to reach USD 1.2 trillion by 2030.
- The passenger air transportation segment consistently dominates the broader air transportation market, accounting for 69.8% of the total market demand.
- North America is a significant region for passenger air travel. In 2025, the commercial aviation segment, driven by passenger demand, held approximately 61.35% of the North America aviation market.
Cargo Air Transportation Market
- The global air cargo market was estimated at USD 257.44 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 501.32 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 10.3% from 2024 to 2030. Another assessment valued the global air cargo market at USD 182.09 billion in 2023, expecting it to reach USD 268.79 billion by 2032 with a CAGR of 4.4%.
- Within the air cargo market, the air freight segment captured the highest share at 61.59% in 2023 due to demand for high-value and time-sensitive goods.
- For North America, the air cargo market was valued at USD 31.94 billion in 2022 and is projected to reach USD 43.20 billion by 2028, at a CAGR of approximately 5.2%. The North America air cargo and freight logistics market generated a revenue of USD 14.72 billion in 2023 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 12.3% from 2024 to 2030, reaching a projected revenue of USD 33.17 billion by 2030.
- The United States air freight transport market size is estimated at USD 51.99 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 64.11 billion by 2031, growing at a 4.29% CAGR. Another report states the U.S. air freight market was valued at USD 64.06 billion in 2025 and is forecast to reach USD 91.81 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 4.08%.
Overall Air Transportation Market (Passenger and Cargo)
- The global air transportation market was valued at approximately USD 814 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach around USD 1,241 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 4.9% from 2024 to 2032. Other estimates place the global airlines market size, which includes passenger and cargo movement, at USD 588.67 billion in 2025, anticipated to reach USD 786.39 billion by 2034 with a CAGR of 3.27%. The air transport market is also projected to grow from USD 1,049.48 billion in 2025 to USD 1,466.71 billion in 2030.
- The North America aviation market was valued at USD 79 billion based on a five-year historical analysis and is expected to grow from USD 84.14 billion in 2025 to USD 99.71 billion by 2031, at a CAGR of 2.87%.
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American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) anticipates several key drivers to fuel its revenue growth over the next 2-3 years:
- Recovery and Growth in Business Travel: American Airlines expects continued revenue growth from the recovery of business travel, particularly from small and medium-sized businesses. The company has observed sequential improvement in managed corporate travel, with domestic business revenue growth surpassing capacity growth in the first quarter of 2024. Corporate revenue notably increased by 14% year-over-year in the third quarter of 2025.
- Expansion of Premium Offerings and Enhanced Customer Experience: A significant driver of future revenue is the focus on delivering premium content and enhancing the premium customer experience. American Airlines is investing in product improvements, including the introduction of new state-of-the-art flagship suite seats on its long-haul aircraft (retrofitting Boeing 777-300s and future Airbus A321XLR and Boeing 787-9 deliveries). Premium content, which encompasses upsell, loyalty, and partnership revenue, constituted 61% of the company's revenue in Q1 2024, marking a 17% increase year-over-year. Premium unit revenue outperformed main cabin revenue, and premium cabins contributed nearly 50% of ticket revenue in Q3 2025, with premium seat growth projected to be almost double the pace of main cabin growth.
- Growth of the AAdvantage Loyalty Program and Co-branded Credit Cards: The AAdvantage loyalty program is identified as a major high-margin revenue generator. The company has seen an increase in active accounts and co-branded credit card spending. Cash payments from co-branded credit card partners and other alliances are projected to grow by approximately 10% annually, with expectations to reach around $10 billion annually by the end of the decade, contributing an estimated $1.5 billion in incremental annual pretax income compared to 2024. AAdvantage customers were responsible for 72% of premium content revenue in Q1 2024. Active AAdvantage members contributed 77% to premium revenue in Q2 2025.
- Network Expansion and Optimization: American Airlines is strategically expanding and optimizing its network to drive revenue growth. This includes plans to add 15 new routes for the summer of 2026 and increasing daily departures from key hubs like Chicago, aiming for over 500 daily departures by 2026. The airline is prioritizing capacity restoration in critical markets such as Chicago, Philadelphia, and New York.
- Indirect Revenue Recapture and Digital Transformation: The airline is focused on regaining its historical share of revenue from indirect sales channels, with an expectation to achieve this by the end of 2025 and continue expansion into 2026. This strategy involves refining fare offerings and upgrading commercial processes and technology to enhance revenue generation. Improved indirect channel revenue performance has been noted, with expectations for it to return to normal historical levels by the end of 2025.
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Capital Allocation Decisions (2021-2026) for American Airlines (AAL)
Share Repurchases
- American Airlines reported $0.00 in share buybacks for the latest twelve months ending December 31, 2025.
- The 5-Year Share Buyback Ratio as of December 2025 was -1.00%, indicating an absence of repurchases or a focus on share issuance during that period.
Share Issuance
- A 5-Year Share Buyback Ratio of -1.00% as of December 2025 suggests the company may have been issuing new shares over this period.
Capital Expenditures
- American Airlines' capital expenditures averaged $2.362 billion annually from fiscal years 2021 to 2025, reaching $3.779 billion in 2025.
- The company projects capital expenditures between $4 billion and $4.5 billion for 2026, primarily focused on fleet expansion and modernization, including the delivery of 55 new aircraft.
- A $1 billion investment was announced in February 2026 to expand facilities at Miami International Airport with a new Concourse D extension, aiming to enhance customer experience and operational efficiency, with groundbreaking scheduled for 2027.
Peer Outperformance in Passenger Airlines
AAL has trailed 60% of its 10 Passenger Airlines peers over 5Y. Among the peers that beat it are UAL and DAL. Passenger Airlines ranks 18th of 23 industries in Industrials by median 5Y return. The sector’s gains have largely come from elsewhere.
Share of Passenger Airlines constituents that AAL has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
45%
of 11 industry peers · -3.5% return
3Y
36%
of 11 industry peers · -11.6% return
5Y
40%
of 10 industry peers · -33.0% return
Passenger Airlines peers with revenue growth within 4pp of AAL's that beat it on at least 2 of 3 windows, and by at least 20pp over 5Y. Growth is matched by construction, so the gap is largely a re-rating gap. The multiple column is the context for it.
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAL | American Airlines | 3.4% | -26.3x | -3.5% | -11.6% | -33.0% | — |
| UAL | United Airlines | 7.3% | 10.1x | 2.4% | 118.5% | 135.1% | +168pp |
| DAL | Delta Air Lines | 7.0% | 13.0x | 29.9% | 89.9% | 102.7% | +136pp |
Price returns, excluding dividends. P/E shown for context only and not used for matching.
Median price return by industry across the Industrials sector, ranked by 5Y. Passenger Airlines is AAL's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Construction & Engineering | 31 | 17.5% | 99.4% | 187.0% | CDNL 2619% · FIX 2009% · STRL 1891% |
| Marine Transportation | 5 | 69.1% | 70.3% | 169.4% | HOS 49321% · MATX 184% · KEX 169% |
| Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment | 13 | 15.9% | 55.6% | 114.4% | CAT 315% · ALSN 262% · WAB 220% |
| Aerospace & Defense | 55 | 0.1% | 55.2% | 71.1% | ATI 1040% · FTAI 901% · HWM 742% |
| Passenger Ground Transportation | 3 | -11.8% | 40.0% | 57.9% | UBER 88% · CAR 58% · LYFT -64% |
| Rail Transportation | 7 | 30.7% | 66.8% | 45.4% | FSTR 131% · CSX 64% · UNP 51% |
| Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components | 71 | 9.5% | 45.8% | 43.3% | CRS 1386% · PSIX 846% · EROC 573% |
| Cargo Ground Transportation | 16 | 35.9% | 1.1% | 32.1% | R 249% · XPO 242% · CVLG 202% |
| Trading Companies & Distributors | 19 | 1.6% | 30.1% | 31.7% | DXPE 523% · AIT 285% · WCC 202% |
| Diversified Support Services | 33 | 12.3% | 29.7% | 26.7% | LIME 4415% · WLFC 355% · TH 348% |
| Electrical Components & Equipment | 41 | 17.1% | 44.4% | 20.1% | POWL 2125% · BE 976% · VRT 858% |
| Building Products | 33 | -7.1% | 4.3% | 17.8% | LMB 571% · GFF 389% · PPIH 288% |
| Research & Consulting Services | 13 | -5.9% | -19.7% | -3.9% | HURN 220% · CRAI 91% · GRNQ 81% |
| Industrial Conglomerates | 17 | 12.5% | 10.9% | -5.0% | RCMT 667% · CSW 138% · CSL 76% |
| Agricultural & Farm Machinery | 17 | 13.7% | -6.0% | -10.4% | BLBD 213% · DE 90% · GENC 57% |
| Environmental & Facilities Services | 29 | -6.3% | 20.5% | -12.5% | CECO 883% · ADUR 572% · NVRI 360% |
| Data Processing & Outsourced Services | 6 | -29.6% | -11.5% | -24.8% | EXLS 51% · BR 15% · G -22% |
| Passenger Airlines ← | 11 | -0.6% | -4.9% | -27.5% | LTM 2468% · UAL 135% · SKYW 111% |
| Office Services & Supplies | 9 | 13.1% | 19.0% | -31.6% | PBI 189% · TILE 151% · HNI 54% |
| Human Resource & Employment Services | 22 | 8.1% | -19.4% | -37.1% | BBSI 85% · ADP 53% · KFY 31% |
| Air Freight & Logistics | 12 | -7.7% | -26.9% | -39.4% | CHRW 82% · FDX 68% · EXPD 60% |
| Security & Alarm Services | 10 | -33.9% | 7.3% | -44.9% | CIX 143% · MG 95% · NL 56% |
| Airport Services | 3 | -67.0% | -75.3% | -58.7% | JOBY -32% · ASLE -59% · UP -100% |
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are unfiltered by size in this render.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 40.06 |
| Mkt Cap | 13.8 |
| Rev LTM | 44,204 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,056 |
| FCF LTM | -32 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -40 |
| CFO LTM | 3,452 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,518 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 16.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.1% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -41.1% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -20.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 2.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -0.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -0.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 13.8 |
| P/S | 0.4 |
| P/Op Inc | 8.2 |
| P/EBIT | 6.5 |
| P/E | 4.1 |
| P/CFO | 4.2 |
| Total Yield | 1.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -1.4% |
| D/E | 1.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.8 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -20.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 5.6% |
| 12M Rtn | -0.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 15.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -20.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -7.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -20.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -58.1% |
Comparison Analyses
FDA Approved Drugs Data
Expand for More| Post-Approval Fwd Returns | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDA App # | Brand Name | Generic Name | Dosage Form | FDA Approval | 3M Rtn | 6M Rtn | 1Y Rtn | 2Y Rtn | Total Rtn |
| NDA207114 | MEDICAL AIR, USP | medical air | gas | 5122014 | -3.4% | 11.8% | 25.2% | -15.0% | -65.1% |
| Post-Approval Fwd Returns | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDA App # | Brand Name | Generic Name | Dosage Form | FDA Approval | 3M Rtn | 6M Rtn | 1Y Rtn | 2Y Rtn | Total Rtn |
| NDA207114 | MEDICAL AIR, USP | medical air | gas | 5122014 | -3.4% | 11.8% | 25.2% | -15.0% | -65.1% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scheduled air transportation for passengers and cargo, and includes American’s loyalty program | 54,633 | 54,211 | 52,788 | 48,971 | |
| Cargo | 1,314 | ||||
| Other revenue | 2,505 | ||||
| Passenger revenue | 26,063 | ||||
| Total | 54,633 | 54,211 | 52,788 | 48,971 | 29,882 |
| $ Mil | 1998 | 1997 | 1996 | 1995 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Airline Group | 1,951 | |||
| Sabre group | 350 | 308 | 327 | 382 |
| AMR Management Services Group | 49 | 70 | 69 | |
| Air Transportation Group | 1,569 | 1,442 | 564 | |
| Total | 2,301 | 1,926 | 1,839 | 1,015 |
| $ Mil | 1998 | 1997 | 1996 | 1995 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Airline Group | 19,582 | |||
| Sabre group | 1,927 | 1,503 | 1,246 | 587 |
| AMR Management Services Group | 297 | 287 | 313 | |
| Air Transportation Group | 18,709 | 18,560 | 18,299 | |
| Total | 21,509 | 20,509 | 20,093 | 19,199 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $12.97 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 8.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/27/2005 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -28.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $15.33 | $13.92 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -15.4% | -6.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 50.8% | 47.6% |
| Downside Capture | 222.98 | 218.24 |
| Upside Capture | 191.42 | 166.91 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 49.2% | 49.6% |
AAL Betas & Captures as of 8/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.56 | 2.69 | 1.79 | 2.09 | 1.83 | 1.67 |
| Up Beta | 2.99 | 1.63 | 2.44 | 2.73 | 2.36 | 2.04 |
| Down Beta | -0.47 | 2.55 | 0.96 | 1.18 | 1.15 | 1.43 |
| Up Capture | 119% | 172% | 175% | 241% | 239% | 264% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 7 | 14 | 30 | 58 | 121 | 364 |
| Down Capture | 504% | 421% | 196% | 191% | 155% | 110% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 14 | 28 | 34 | 67 | 126 | 372 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAL | -3.5% | 47.6% | 0.07 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 17.8% | 17.1% | 0.79 | 48.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 21.2% | 12.8% | 1.23 | 49.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 25.1% | 29.1% | 0.77 | 13.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 42.9% | 20.4% | 1.64 | -48.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 10.7% | 13.6% | 0.50 | 33.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -31.0% | 43.5% | -0.73 | 21.7% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAL | -8.1% | 48.5% | -0.01 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.5% | 17.6% | 0.54 | 55.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.2% | 0.58 | 55.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.6% | 18.8% | 0.85 | 1.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.0% | 19.5% | 0.44 | -9.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.0% | 18.9% | 0.00 | 40.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 10.5% | 52.6% | 0.38 | 26.7% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAL | -9.5% | 53.0% | 0.02 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.4% | 20.0% | 0.59 | 57.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 50.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.5% | 16.3% | 0.63 | 0.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.0% | 18.1% | 0.36 | 5.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 39.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.1% | 66.1% | 1.03 | 13.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 8/25/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/23/2026 | -8.4% | 0.3% | -8.6% |
| 4/23/2026 | 2.4% | -1.7% | 18.2% |
| 1/27/2026 | -7.0% | -6.0% | -8.6% |
| 10/23/2025 | 5.6% | 7.3% | 1.2% |
| 7/24/2025 | -9.6% | -9.2% | -0.9% |
| 4/24/2025 | 3.1% | 6.8% | 22.3% |
| 1/23/2025 | -8.7% | -7.1% | -18.4% |
| 10/24/2024 | -0.4% | 8.7% | 10.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 12 | 11 |
| # Negative | 11 | 12 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 3.1% | 4.0% | 8.6% |
| Median Negative | -6.2% | -6.1% | -4.3% |
| Max Positive | 10.3% | 8.7% | 26.4% |
| Max Negative | -9.6% | -14.1% | -19.1% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/23/2026 | -8.4% | 0.3% | -8.6% |
| 4/23/2026 | 2.4% | -1.7% | 18.2% |
| 1/27/2026 | -7.0% | -6.0% | -8.6% |
| 10/23/2025 | 5.6% | 7.3% | 1.2% |
| 7/24/2025 | -9.6% | -9.2% | -0.9% |
| 4/24/2025 | 3.1% | 6.8% | 22.3% |
| 1/23/2025 | -8.7% | -7.1% | -18.4% |
| 10/24/2024 | -0.4% | 8.7% | 10.7% |
| 7/25/2024 | 4.2% | 4.6% | -0.3% |
| 4/25/2024 | 1.5% | -2.4% | -0.7% |
| 1/25/2024 | 10.3% | 2.2% | 8.6% |
| 10/19/2023 | 0.8% | -2.8% | 7.3% |
| 7/20/2023 | -6.2% | -9.9% | -19.1% |
| 4/27/2023 | 1.1% | 8.2% | 12.9% |
| 1/26/2023 | 2.2% | 2.6% | -4.3% |
| 10/20/2022 | -3.8% | 0.1% | -0.3% |
| 7/21/2022 | -7.4% | -8.2% | -2.4% |
| 4/21/2022 | 3.8% | -2.6% | -14.0% |
| 1/20/2022 | -3.2% | -6.2% | 5.3% |
| 10/21/2021 | 1.9% | -2.5% | -0.7% |
| 7/22/2021 | -1.1% | 1.1% | -12.5% |
| 4/22/2021 | -4.5% | 3.3% | 7.6% |
| 1/28/2021 | 9.3% | 6.3% | 26.4% |
| 10/22/2020 | 3.2% | -14.1% | 0.4% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 12 | 11 |
| # Negative | 11 | 12 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 3.1% | 4.0% | 8.6% |
| Median Negative | -6.2% | -6.1% | -4.3% |
| Max Positive | 10.3% | 8.7% | 26.4% |
| Max Negative | -9.6% | -14.1% | -19.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/23/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/23/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/19/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/20/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/20/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/23/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/23/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/19/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/20/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/20/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/21/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/21/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/22/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/21/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/22/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/22/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/17/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/22/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/23/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 04/30/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/19/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/24/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/27/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/23/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Available seat miles | Reported | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.05 | -1.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 0.05 for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 CASM excluding net special items, fuel and profit sharing | Reported | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 0.03 for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Adjusted earnings (loss) per diluted share | Reported | -0.7 | -0.4 | -0.1 | Lower New | Guidance: 0 for Q2 2026 | ||
| Q3 2026 Total revenue | Reported | 0.16 | 0.17 | 0.19 | 2.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 0.15 for Q2 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted earnings (loss) per diluted share | Reported | -0.65 | 0 | 0.65 | Lowered | Guidance: 0.35 for 2026 | ||
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/23/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Adjusted earnings (loss) per diluted share | Reported | -0.2 | 0 | 0.2 | 30.0% | Higher New | Guidance: -0.3 for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Available seat miles (ASMs) | Reported | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 1.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 0.04 for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 CASM excluding net special items, fuel and profit sharing | Reported | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.04 | -1.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 0.04 for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Total revenue | Reported | 0.14 | 0.15 | 0.17 | 6.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 0.09 for Q1 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted earnings (loss) per diluted share | Reported | -0.4 | 0.35 | 1.1 | -84.1% | Lowered | Guidance: 2.2 for 2026 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/27/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Available seat miles (ASMs) | Reported | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.05 | ||||
| Q1 2026 CASM excluding fuel, profit sharing and net special items | Reported | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.05 | ||||
| Q1 2026 Adjusted loss per diluted share | Reported | -0.5 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -150.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 0.6 for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Total revenue | Reported | 0.07 | 0.09 | 0.1 | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted earnings per diluted share | Reported | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 175.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 0.8 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Free cash flow | Reported | 2.00 Bil | 100.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.00 Bil for 2025 | |||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/23/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Adjusted EPS | Reported | 0.45 | 0.6 | 0.75 | -271.4% | Higher New | Guidance: -0.35 for Q3 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted EPS | Reported | 0.65 | 0.8 | 0.95 | 166.7% | Raised | Guidance: 0.3 for 2025 | |
| 2025 Free Cash Flow | Reported | 1.00 Bil | ||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 8/3/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johnson, Stephen L | Vice Chair | Direct | Sell | 8032026 | 15.29 | 30,000 | 458,790 | 29,643,294 | Form |
| 2 | Johnson, Stephen L | Vice Chair | Direct | Sell | 8032026 | 15.26 | 30,000 | 457,878 | 30,042,246 | Form |
| 3 | Owens, Angela | SVP Corporate Controller | Direct | Sell | 7312026 | 15.26 | 40,077 | 611,623 | 2,728,687 | Form |
| 4 | Johnson, Stephen L | Vice Chair | Direct | Sell | 7292026 | 15.01 | 30,000 | 450,378 | 30,000,534 | Form |
| 5 | Johnson, Stephen L | Vice Chair | Direct | Sell | 7292026 | 15.16 | 30,000 | 454,818 | 30,751,109 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johnson, Stephen L | Vice Chair | Direct | Sell | 8032026 | 15.29 | 30,000 | 458,790 | 29,643,294 | Form |
| 2 | Johnson, Stephen L | Vice Chair | Direct | Sell | 8032026 | 15.26 | 30,000 | 457,878 | 30,042,246 | Form |
| 3 | Owens, Angela | SVP Corporate Controller | Direct | Sell | 7312026 | 15.26 | 40,077 | 611,623 | 2,728,687 | Form |
| 4 | Johnson, Stephen L | Vice Chair | Direct | Sell | 7292026 | 15.01 | 30,000 | 450,378 | 30,000,534 | Form |
| 5 | Johnson, Stephen L | Vice Chair | Direct | Sell | 7292026 | 15.16 | 30,000 | 454,818 | 30,751,109 | Form |
| 6 | Owens, Angela | SVP Corporate Controller | Direct | Sell | 7292026 | 15.34 | 39,168 | 601,017 | 3,358,565 | Form |
| 7 | Johnson, Stephen L | Vice Chair | Direct | Sell | 7292026 | 14.67 | 30,000 | 440,112 | 30,196,921 | Form |
| 8 | Seymour, David | EVP Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 6262026 | 18.00 | 56,456 | 1,016,242 | 17,443,175 | Form |
| 9 | Seymour, David | EVP Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 6262026 | 17.00 | 69,343 | 1,178,831 | 17,433,313 | Form |
| 10 | Seymour, David | EVP Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 12172025 | 16.01 | 25,595 | 409,699 | 14,921,661 | Form |
| 11 | Seymour, David | EVP Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 12112025 | 15.01 | 62,507 | 938,286 | 14,707,320 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Sep 4, 202613F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)
Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager |
|---|
American Airlines — Investor Video Playlist
Leadership
Tell Me Why: ‘The American product is something people want to buy’ — Nat Pieper
Leadership
Tell Me Why: ‘We opened some amazing new routes’ — José Freig
Products & Services
oneworld and Breakthrough Energy Ventures Launch Early-Stage SAF fund
Leadership
Tell Me Why: ‘What are the best routes for us to add’— Brian Znotins
Products & Services
American Airlines unveils new 787-9 Dreamliner interior
Leadership
Tell Me Why: ‘These destinations are a gateway to the rest of Europe.’ — Brian Znotins
Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
| IndustryWeek |
| Manufacturing.net |
| Aviation Week |
| Passenger Airlines Resources |
| FlightGlobal |
| Airline Weekly |
| Skift Airlines |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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Core Cache Last Updated: 9/3/2026