Waste Management (WM)
Market Price (11/6/2026): $241.12 | Market Cap: $95.9 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Industrials | Industry: Environmental & Facilities Services
Waste Management (WM)
Market Price (11/6/2026): $241.12Market Cap: $95.9 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Environmental & Facilities Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, CFO LTM is 6.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.7 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.2 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 21% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Infrastructure, Circular Economy & Recycling, Sustainable Resource Management, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.9%, Dist 3Y High is -0.9% Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -19%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -30% | Key risksWM key risks include [1] increased operating and capital costs driven by evolving environmental regulations for contaminants like PFAS and [2] revenue volatility from fluctuating market prices for recyclable commodities. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, CFO LTM is 6.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.7 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.2 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 21% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Infrastructure, Circular Economy & Recycling, Sustainable Resource Management, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.9%, Dist 3Y High is -0.9% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -19%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -30% |
| Key risksWM key risks include [1] increased operating and capital costs driven by evolving environmental regulations for contaminants like PFAS and [2] revenue volatility from fluctuating market prices for recyclable commodities. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Waste Management (WM) stock has gained about 5% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Waste Management reported robust fiscal Q3 2026 revenue growth and significantly increased free cash flow, instilling investor confidence despite a slight earnings per share miss. The company's revenue rose 6.3% year-over-year to $6.85 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $6.81 billion. Furthermore, free cash flow surged over 42% through the first nine months of fiscal 2026 to $3.01 billion, with the company returning $957 million to shareholders in the quarter through buybacks and dividends. Management also reaffirmed its full-year 2026 guidance, projecting revenue and free cash flow to be at the high end of their respective ranges.
2. The company demonstrated strong pricing power and effective cost management strategies, enabling it to protect margins amid inflationary pressures. Waste Management achieved a core price increase of 5.8% and a collection and disposal yield of 3.4% in fiscal Q3 2026. These measures helped to largely offset challenges from higher fuel and risk management costs, which increased operating expenses to 59.8% of revenue from 58.9% in the prior year.
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Waste Management (WM) stock has gained about 5% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Waste Management reported robust fiscal Q3 2026 revenue growth and significantly increased free cash flow, instilling investor confidence despite a slight earnings per share miss. The company's revenue rose 6.3% year-over-year to $6.85 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $6.81 billion. Furthermore, free cash flow surged over 42% through the first nine months of fiscal 2026 to $3.01 billion, with the company returning $957 million to shareholders in the quarter through buybacks and dividends. Management also reaffirmed its full-year 2026 guidance, projecting revenue and free cash flow to be at the high end of their respective ranges.
2. The company demonstrated strong pricing power and effective cost management strategies, enabling it to protect margins amid inflationary pressures. Waste Management achieved a core price increase of 5.8% and a collection and disposal yield of 3.4% in fiscal Q3 2026. These measures helped to largely offset challenges from higher fuel and risk management costs, which increased operating expenses to 59.8% of revenue from 58.9% in the prior year.
3. Strong performance from the Healthcare Solutions segment significantly contributed to operating profitability. The integration of the Healthcare Solutions business exceeded financial and operational targets ahead of schedule, with the segment's operating EBITDA growing an impressive 33% year-over-year in fiscal Q3 2026. This segment also saw a 3.7% increase in revenue.
4. Positive sentiment and upward revisions to price targets by several financial analysts following the earnings report buoyed the stock. JPMorgan Chase & Co. raised its price target for Waste Management from $235 to $260, indicating a potential upside of 12.71%, while Barclays increased its target from $277 to $283. The consensus analyst rating for WM remained a "Moderate Buy" with an average price target ranging from $257.37 to $257.89.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 7.0% change in WM stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 5.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 225.55 | 241.27 | 7.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 25,667 | 26,070 | 1.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.1% | 11.8% | 5.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 31.7 | 31.3 | -1.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 402 | 399 | 0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 7.0% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WM | 7.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | -1.9% | -24.7% |
| Sector (XLI) | -9.7% | -14.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 4.7% change in WM stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 7.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 230.53 | 241.27 | 4.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 25,413 | 26,070 | 2.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.0% | 11.8% | 7.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 33.3 | 31.3 | -5.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 403 | 399 | 1.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 4.7% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WM | 4.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.3% | -38.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | -6.7% | -21.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 22.8% change in WM stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 13.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 196.49 | 241.27 | 22.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 24,784 | 26,070 | 5.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.3% | 11.8% | 13.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 30.9 | 31.3 | 1.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 403 | 399 | 1.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 22.8% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WM | 22.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.4% | -25.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | 5.7% | -7.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 53.7% change in WM stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 29.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 156.97 | 241.27 | 53.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 20,144 | 26,070 | 29.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.5% | 11.8% | 2.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 27.5 | 31.3 | 14.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 404 | 399 | 1.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 53.7% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WM | 53.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 81.3% | 7.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 71.8% | 15.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| WM Return | 44% | -4% | 16% | 14% | 11% | 11% | 124% |
| Peers Return | 43% | 1% | 23% | 22% | 0% | 4% | 128% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| WM Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 50% | 67% | 58% | 64% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 72% | 45% | 58% | 62% | 57% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 45% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| WM Max Drawdown | -7% | -17% | -12% | -12% | -18% | -17% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -13% | -22% | -16% | -12% | -25% | -24% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: RSG, CLH, ACM, CWST, WM. See WM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/5/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | WM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -11.6% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.1% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 39 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -13.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 43 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -29.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 357 days | 140 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -21.7% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.7% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 179 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -11.4% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.9% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 79 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -31.1% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.0% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 220 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Waste Management's stock fell -4.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 5.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | WM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -29.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 357 days | 140 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -21.7% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.7% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 179 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -31.1% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.0% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 220 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Waste Management's stock fell -4.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 5.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Waste Management (WM)
Waste Management, Inc. (WM) is a prominent environmental services company operating across North America. Its core business revolves around providing comprehensive waste management solutions, encompassing the entire lifecycle of waste and recyclable materials—from initial collection to processing, recycling, and final disposal. The company plays a crucial role in maintaining environmental health by managing various waste streams effectively.
WM's main services include the collection and transportation of waste and recyclable materials. It operates a vast network of essential infrastructure, including numerous solid waste and hazardous waste landfills, transfer stations, and material recovery facilities (MRFs) for processing recyclables. Beyond traditional waste services, WM also develops and operates landfill gas-to-energy facilities, converting waste into renewable energy. Additionally, it offers specialized solutions such as materials processing and recycling brokerage, construction and remediation services, disposal of industrial by-products like fly ash, in-plant waste management consulting, and specific disposal services for oil and gas exploration and production operations.
The company serves a broad and diverse customer base throughout North America. Its primary markets include residential households, commercial businesses, industrial facilities, and municipal entities. This extensive customer reach underscores Waste Management's position as a vital partner for communities and industries seeking reliable, integrated, and environmentally responsible waste and recycling solutions.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Waste Management (WM):
A utility company, but for waste and recycling services.
The UPS or FedEx for trash and recyclables.
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- Waste Collection and Transportation: Services for picking up and transporting various waste and recyclable materials from customer sites to processing or disposal facilities.
- Waste Disposal and Landfill Management: Operation of solid waste, hazardous waste, and specialized landfills for the secure and environmentally compliant disposal of diverse waste streams.
- Recycling and Materials Processing: Services including operating Material Recovery Facilities (MRFs) to sort and process recyclable materials, and providing recycling brokerage.
- Landfill Gas-to-Energy: Development and operation of facilities that convert landfill gas, a byproduct of landfills, into renewable energy.
- Environmental Consulting and Specialized Services: Offers construction and remediation, in-plant waste management solutions, and specialized disposal services for industrial byproducts like fly ash and oil & gas operations.
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- Residential Customers: These include individual households and homeowners who receive waste collection and recycling services.
- Commercial Customers: This category comprises various businesses, such as offices, retail stores, restaurants, and other commercial establishments that require waste management and recycling solutions.
- Industrial and Municipal Customers: This segment includes large-scale industrial operations, manufacturing facilities, construction sites, and municipal governments (cities, towns, and other local authorities) often under long-term contracts for waste disposal, recycling, and specialized environmental services.
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Key Risks to Waste Management (WM)
- High Debt Load and Acquisition Integration Risks: Waste Management carries a significant debt load, which increased substantially following the acquisition of Stericycle, Inc.. This presents a major financial risk, particularly in an environment of higher interest rates, and has elevated the company's debt-to-equity ratio above that of its industry peers. The integration of an acquisition of Stericycle's size is also complex, with a specific risk that if Selling, General, and Administrative (SG&A) expenses for the Healthcare Solutions segment do not decline towards targeted synergy levels, the anticipated financial benefits and margin expansion may not be realized.
- Commodity Price Volatility in Recycling Operations: The financial performance of Waste Management's recycling segment is highly vulnerable to the volatile market prices and demand for recycled commodities. Fluctuations in these prices can negatively impact the company's operating income and cash flows, as demonstrated by past instances where lower recycled commodity prices directly led to a reduction in revenue guidance.
- Extensive and Evolving Regulatory and Environmental Compliance: Waste Management's diverse operations are subject to extensive and complex environmental, health, and safety laws and regulations across federal, state, provincial, and local levels. Changes in these regulations, including those pertaining to emerging contaminants or extended producer responsibility, have the potential to restrict operations, increase operating costs, raise tax liabilities, decrease revenues, or necessitate substantial additional capital expenditures. The company also faces the risk of incurring significant environmental liabilities if its operations are alleged to cause environmental damage.
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The increasing global adoption of circular economy principles and zero-waste initiatives represents a clear emerging threat. This movement aims to drastically reduce the generation of waste materials, promote extensive reuse, repair, and advanced recycling, thereby diminishing the fundamental need for traditional waste collection, transfer, and landfill disposal services that constitute a significant portion of Waste Management's core business model and asset base.
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Waste Management, Inc. (symbol: WM) operates in several substantial addressable markets across North America.
The overall North America waste management market was valued at approximately USD 196.4 billion in 2024 and is estimated to reach USD 207.21 billion in 2025. It is projected to grow to USD 319.14 billion by 2033, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.5% from 2025 to 2033. Another source indicates the North America waste management market generated revenue of USD 495.1 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 760.2 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 5.6% from 2026 to 2033. This market is segmented by waste type, including municipal solid waste, industrial waste, hazardous waste, e-waste, and organic waste.
For hazardous waste management, North America held the largest revenue share, accounting for approximately 33.1% of the global hazardous waste management market in 2025. The North America hazardous waste management market is projected to reach USD 29,779.5 million by 2033. The global hazardous waste management market size was valued at USD 18.94 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 31.68 billion by 2034, with North America holding 34% of this global market share. The U.S. hazardous waste management market alone generated USD 4,660.1 million in revenue in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 7,257.5 million by 2033.
The North America waste recycling services market size was valued at USD 17.13 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 20.19 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 3.34% during this period. The U.S. dominates North America's waste recycling services market, accounting for about 80% of the share, with a market size valued at USD 13.8 billion in 2024 and projected to reach USD 21.92 billion by 2032.
The North America recycled plastics market was valued at USD 8,162.8 million in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 11,287.2 million by 2033, demonstrating a CAGR of 3.48% from 2025 to 2033. Another report indicates the North America recycled plastics market size was USD 17.48 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 25.98 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 4.50% from 2026 to 2034.
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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Waste Management (WM)
Over the next 2-3 years, Waste Management (WM) is anticipated to drive revenue growth through several strategic initiatives and market dynamics:
- Disciplined Pricing and Core Business Growth: Waste Management expects continued revenue growth from its core collection and disposal business, driven by disciplined pricing strategies and sustained, albeit sometimes modest, volume increases. The company has projected core price growth in the range of 5.4% to 6.5% for 2025 and 2026, alongside expected positive collection and disposal volume growth.
- Integration and Expansion of WM Healthcare Solutions (Stericycle Acquisition): The acquisition of Stericycle in 2024, with full integration expected in 2025, is a significant driver. This expansion into regulated medical waste and secure information destruction services is projected to diversify revenue streams, contribute substantial revenue growth (estimated to be about 40% of WM's projected revenue growth for 2025), and generate significant synergies (up to $250 million by 2027).
- Investments in Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) Facilities: Waste Management is aggressively investing in renewable natural gas (RNG) infrastructure, aiming to have 20 RNG facilities operational by the end of 2026. These projects convert organic waste into clean energy, creating new, high-margin revenue streams and aligning with the company's sustainability goals.
- Recycling Automation and Infrastructure Modernization: The company is investing over $1 billion through 2026 to enhance its recycling capabilities, including the addition of 20 new or fully automated Material Recovery Facilities (MRFs). This investment is aimed at improving operational efficiency, increasing resource recovery rates, and boosting revenue from its recycling processing and sales segments.
- Expansion into High-Margin Niche Services and Cross-Selling: Waste Management is focused on expanding into higher-margin niche services beyond traditional solid waste. This includes leveraging existing relationships with municipal and industrial customers to cross-sell a broader range of specialized services, thereby reducing dependence on conventional disposal volumes and capturing new growth opportunities.
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Share Repurchases
- In December 2025, Waste Management announced a new $3 billion share repurchase authorization, superseding the prior $1.5 billion authorization from 2023.
- The company plans to repurchase approximately $2 billion of its shares during 2026, with repurchases expected to resume after its fourth quarter 2025 financial results.
- Share repurchases amounted to $262 million in 2024, a decrease from $1.30 billion in 2023, as the company prioritized debt reduction following a major acquisition.
Outbound Investments
- Waste Management completed the acquisition of Stericycle for approximately $7.2 billion to $7.7 billion in November 2024, significantly expanding its presence in regulated medical waste and secure information destruction.
- In 2025, the company invested about $400 million in tuck-in acquisitions for solid waste and recycling businesses.
- For 2026, Waste Management expects to return to its typical range of $100 million to $200 million for tuck-in acquisitions.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures were $3.23 billion in 2024, an increase from $2.90 billion in 2023.
- In 2025, the company spent just under $2.6 billion on capital to support the business, along with an additional $633 million on sustainability growth investments.
- Projected capital expenditures for 2026 are between $2.65 billion and $2.75 billion, including approximately $200 million directed towards high-return sustainability projects such as renewable natural gas facilities and recycling growth initiatives.
Peer Outperformance in Environmental & Facilities Services
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WM | Waste Management | 9.1% | 31.3x | 22.3% | 49.3% | 63.3% | — |
| GEO | GEO | 5.3% | 11.3x | 49.7% | 181.2% | 163.3% | +100pp |
| CLH | Clean Harbors | 7.1% | 27.7x | 34.2% | 79.9% | 161.7% | +98pp |
| RSG | Republic Services | 5.6% | 34.3x | 22.3% | 66.9% | 100.0% | +37pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Transportation | 5 | 25.1% | 30.2% | 102.9% | MATX 155% · KEX 103% |
| Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment | 13 | 6.3% | 55.5% | 95.0% | ALSN 255% · WAB 204% · CAT 192% |
| Construction & Engineering | 29 | -21.3% | 79.9% | 94.8% | FIX 895% · STRL 799% · AGX 526% |
| Aerospace & Defense | 54 | -12.6% | 55.7% | 49.5% | ATI 849% · FTAI 756% · HWM 509% |
| Trading Companies & Distributors | 19 | 5.6% | 30.7% | 33.8% | DXPE 276% · AIT 184% · URI 177% |
| Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components | 71 | 0.3% | 46.1% | 29.7% | CRS 797% · MLI 298% · SYM 249% |
| Rail Transportation | 7 | 34.9% | 53.7% | 27.8% | CSX 54% · UNP 40% · NSC 28% |
| Diversified Support Services | 33 | 14.8% | 36.8% | 21.3% | CXW 195% · OPLN 143% · CTAS 115% |
| Building Products | 34 | -6.6% | 9.3% | 10.6% | MOD 714% · GFF 345% · TT 126% |
| Cargo Ground Transportation | 16 | 27.9% | 14.6% | 4.8% | XPO 269% · R 250% · ARCB 25% |
| Industrial Conglomerates | 17 | 14.8% | -1.6% | -1.3% | CSW 103% · CSL 72% · DD 65% |
| Office Services & Supplies | 10 | 20.8% | 22.5% | -2.6% | PBI 158% · TILE 140% · HNI 40% |
| Electrical Components & Equipment | 39 | -14.2% | 56.2% | -12.1% | POWL 1360% · VRT 543% · BE 424% |
| Data Processing & Outsourced Services | 6 | -11.8% | 5.0% | -12.7% | EXLS 59% · BR 22% · G -12% |
| Research & Consulting Services | 13 | 4.9% | -15.5% | -22.6% | HURN 227% · FCN 36% · BAH 14% |
| Agricultural & Farm Machinery | 16 | 7.2% | -7.4% | -27.4% | BLBD 171% · DE 99% · TTC 15% |
| Security & Alarm Services | 9 | -51.2% | 10.7% | -28.0% | BCO 65% |
| Environmental & Facilities Services ← | 29 | -31.2% | 25.5% | -28.1% | GEO 163% · CLH 162% · RSG 100% |
| Passenger Airlines | 11 | 2.6% | 64.1% | -34.8% | LTM 3100% · UAL 110% · DAL 100% |
| Air Freight & Logistics | 12 | -28.8% | -7.3% | -39.1% | FDX 80% · EXPD 60% · CHRW 54% |
| Human Resource & Employment Services | 22 | 19.2% | -6.0% | -42.4% | ADP 50% · FA 22% · PAYX 13% |
| Passenger Ground Transportation | 3 | -14.1% | 42.9% | -57.4% | UBER 46% · CAR -57% · LYFT -67% |
| Airport Services | 4 | -49.1% | -62.8% | -86.2% | JOBY -47% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 241.12 |
| Mkt Cap | 14.6 |
| Rev LTM | 15,393 |
| Op Inc LTM | 864 |
| FCF LTM | 496 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 575 |
| CFO LTM | 1,020 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 863 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.1% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 4.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 9.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 13.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 14.6 |
| P/S | 3.2 |
| P/Op Inc | 19.9 |
| P/EBIT | 20.0 |
| P/E | 31.3 |
| P/CFO | 16.7 |
| Total Yield | 3.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.3% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 14.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 5.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 9.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 20.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 49.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 16.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 7.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 5.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 6.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -29.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Tier | 11,482 | 10,955 | 10,533 | 9,920 | 8,922 |
| West Tier | 10,900 | 10,337 | 9,897 | 9,479 | 8,703 |
| Other Ancillary | 3,163 | 2,915 | 2,711 | 2,413 | 2,041 |
| Healthcare Solutions | 2,951 | 471 | |||
| Recycling Processing and Sales | 1,866 | 1,890 | 1,576 | 1,760 | 1,760 |
| Renewable Energy | 481 | 321 | 276 | 315 | 220 |
| Corporate and Other | 52 | 48 | 46 | 49 | 47 |
| Intercompany Elimination | -5,691 | -4,874 | -4,613 | -4,238 | -3,762 |
| Total | 25,204 | 22,063 | 20,426 | 19,698 | 17,931 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Tier | 2,904 | 2,760 | 2,446 | 2,178 | 1,955 |
| West Tier | 2,889 | 2,693 | 2,383 | 2,182 | 1,939 |
| Renewable Energy | 135 | 99 | 79 | 132 | 108 |
| Other Ancillary | -16 | -9 | -8 | 0 | -18 |
| Recycling Processing and Sales | -80 | 86 | -44 | 128 | 217 |
| Healthcare Solutions | -88 | -69 | |||
| Corporate and Other | -1,436 | -1,497 | -1,281 | -1,255 | -1,236 |
| Total | 4,308 | 4,063 | 3,575 | 3,365 | 2,965 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Tier | 16,099 | 15,328 | 14,328 | 14,741 | 14,269 |
| West Tier | 12,245 | 11,786 | 11,322 | 11,916 | 11,476 |
| Healthcare Solutions | 9,002 | 9,406 | |||
| Corporate and Other | 3,888 | 3,785 | 3,392 | 3,048 | 2,372 |
| Recycling Processing and Sales | 2,718 | 2,686 | 2,282 | ||
| Renewable Energy | 1,976 | 1,544 | 1,077 | ||
| Other Ancillary | 801 | 779 | 783 | ||
| Elimination of intercompany investments and advances | -894 | -747 | -361 | -310 | -295 |
| Other | 1,972 | 1,275 | |||
| Total | 45,835 | 44,567 | 32,823 | 31,367 | 29,097 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $241.27 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 96.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/30/1991 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -0.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $218.81 | $224.14 |
| DMA Trend | down | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | 10.3% | 7.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 22.2% | 21.2% |
| Downside Capture | -71.36 | -60.52 |
| Upside Capture | -43.26 | -28.71 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | -23.7% | -24.0% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.98 | -0.60 | -0.57 | -0.78 | -0.43 | 0.10 |
| Up Beta | 0.73 | -0.59 | -0.23 | -0.90 | -0.56 | 0.17 |
| Down Beta | -0.84 | -1.29 | -1.03 | -0.26 | -0.09 | 0.19 |
| Up Capture | 4% | -15% | -39% | -58% | -20% | 2% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 16 | 23 | 29 | 58 | 128 | 404 |
| Down Capture | -216% | -75% | -78% | -149% | -116% | -21% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 6 | 20 | 35 | 68 | 123 | 345 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with WM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WM | 22.3% | 21.2% | 0.84 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 7.4% | 17.8% | 0.24 | -7.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 9.5% | 13.6% | 0.41 | -24.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 3.6% | 28.7% | 0.11 | -10.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 37.7% | 21.2% | 1.40 | 2.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.0% | 14.2% | 0.55 | 33.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -20.8% | 43.3% | -0.42 | -19.4% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with WM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WM | 10.6% | 19.3% | 0.42 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 10.8% | 17.7% | 0.45 | 30.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.3% | 17.3% | 0.48 | 24.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.5% | 19.1% | 0.74 | 5.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.0% | 19.6% | 0.29 | 6.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.2% | 18.9% | -0.05 | 40.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.9% | 51.5% | 0.29 | 4.2% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with WM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WM | 16.3% | 19.9% | 0.71 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.9% | 20.1% | 0.56 | 51.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 18.0% | 0.70 | 47.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.0% | 16.5% | 0.59 | 4.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.6% | 18.1% | 0.33 | 12.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 54.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 61.3% | 66.2% | 1.01 | 9.3% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 11/5/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/27/2026 | -4.5% | -0.5% | |
| 7/28/2026 | -1.2% | -5.9% | -7.6% |
| 4/28/2026 | 1.3% | -1.3% | -5.7% |
| 1/28/2026 | -3.7% | -2.2% | 4.0% |
| 10/27/2025 | -4.5% | -8.0% | 1.2% |
| 7/28/2025 | 3.4% | 1.2% | -1.2% |
| 4/28/2025 | -0.1% | 2.5% | 3.5% |
| 1/30/2025 | 6.1% | 7.3% | 11.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 12 | 15 |
| # Negative | 13 | 13 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 2.8% | 3.3% | 5.0% |
| Median Negative | -1.2% | -2.6% | -3.1% |
| Max Positive | 6.1% | 10.5% | 11.9% |
| Max Negative | -8.0% | -8.0% | -7.8% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/27/2026 | -4.5% | -0.5% | |
| 7/28/2026 | -1.2% | -5.9% | -7.6% |
| 4/28/2026 | 1.3% | -1.3% | -5.7% |
| 1/28/2026 | -3.7% | -2.2% | 4.0% |
| 10/27/2025 | -4.5% | -8.0% | 1.2% |
| 7/28/2025 | 3.4% | 1.2% | -1.2% |
| 4/28/2025 | -0.1% | 2.5% | 3.5% |
| 1/30/2025 | 6.1% | 7.3% | 11.1% |
| 10/28/2024 | 5.2% | 2.9% | 9.2% |
| 7/24/2024 | -8.0% | -6.8% | -3.3% |
| 4/25/2024 | -1.2% | -2.6% | -1.8% |
| 2/13/2024 | -0.2% | 2.4% | 5.8% |
| 10/24/2023 | 6.1% | 6.3% | 11.1% |
| 7/25/2023 | -4.0% | -5.4% | -7.8% |
| 4/27/2023 | 2.7% | 3.8% | -0.2% |
| 2/1/2023 | -0.2% | -2.2% | -3.1% |
| 10/26/2022 | -3.1% | -5.2% | -0.6% |
| 7/27/2022 | 2.8% | 5.4% | 11.9% |
| 4/26/2022 | 5.3% | 2.0% | 1.1% |
| 2/2/2022 | -1.1% | -3.1% | 2.0% |
| 10/26/2021 | -1.2% | -1.2% | 2.3% |
| 7/27/2021 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 3.9% |
| 4/27/2021 | 0.8% | 4.8% | 5.0% |
| 2/18/2021 | 1.1% | -0.3% | 9.2% |
| 11/2/2020 | 2.6% | 10.5% | 10.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 12 | 15 |
| # Negative | 13 | 13 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 2.8% | 3.3% | 5.0% |
| Median Negative | -1.2% | -2.6% | -3.1% |
| Max Positive | 6.1% | 10.5% | 11.9% |
| Max Negative | -8.0% | -8.0% | -7.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/28/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/09/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/28/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/13/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/07/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/28/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/09/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/28/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/13/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/07/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/15/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/26/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/27/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/27/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/22/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/02/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/30/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/13/2020 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 10/28/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 10/27/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Net cash provided by operating activities | Reported | 6.50 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Proceeds from divestitures of businesses and other assets, net of cash divested | Reported | 100.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 26.27 Bil | 26.38 Bil | 26.48 Bil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 26.38 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Operating EBITDA | Reported | 8.15 Bil | 8.20 Bil | 8.25 Bil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 8.20 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital expenditures to support the business | Reported | 2.50 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Capital expenditures - sustainability growth investments | Reported | 2.5E10% | ||||||
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | Reported | 3.75 Bil | 3.80 Bil | 3.85 Bil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.80 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Free cash flow without sustainability growth investments | Reported | 4.1E11% | ||||||
| 2026 Free cash flow | Reported | 3.85 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Share Repurchases | Reported | 2.00 Bil | ||||||
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/28/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 26.27 Bil | 26.38 Bil | 26.48 Bil | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted Operating EBITDA Margin | Reported | 31.0% | 31.1% | 31.2% | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted Operating EBITDA | Reported | 8.15 Bil | 8.20 Bil | 8.25 Bil | ||||
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | Reported | 3.75 Bil | 3.80 Bil | 3.85 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.80 Bil for 2026 | |
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/28/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | Reported | 3.75 Bil | 3.80 Bil | 3.85 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.80 Bil for 2026 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/28/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 26.43 Bil | 26.52 Bil | 26.62 Bil | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted operating EBITDA margin | Reported | 30.8% | 30.9% | 31.0% | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted operating EBITDA | Reported | 8.15 Bil | 8.20 Bil | 8.25 Bil | ||||
| 2026 Free cash flow | Reported | 3.75 Bil | 3.80 Bil | 3.85 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.80 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Dividends and share repurchases | Reported | 3.50 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Share repurchases | Reported | 2.00 Bil | ||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 9/8/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carroll, John A | VP & Chief Accounting Officer | Jjc Cache Llc | Sell | 9082026 | 219.90 | 1,365 | 300,164 | 771,616 | Form |
| 2 | Carrasco, Rafael | SVP of Enterprise Strategy | Direct | Sell | 6082026 | 220.47 | 2,655 | 585,335 | 3,425,969 | Form |
| 3 | Morris, John J | President & COO | Direct | Sell | 3092026 | 245.07 | 7,979 | 1,955,414 | 24,177,626 | Form |
| 4 | Reed, David L | EVP & CFO | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 242.65 | 21 | 5,096 | 2,109,503 | Form |
| 5 | Stith, Kimberly G | SVP - Chief HR Officer | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 243.13 | 21 | 5,106 | 1,148,469 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carroll, John A | VP & Chief Accounting Officer | Jjc Cache Llc | Sell | 9082026 | 219.90 | 1,365 | 300,164 | 771,616 | Form |
| 2 | Carrasco, Rafael | SVP of Enterprise Strategy | Direct | Sell | 6082026 | 220.47 | 2,655 | 585,335 | 3,425,969 | Form |
| 3 | Morris, John J | President & COO | Direct | Sell | 3092026 | 245.07 | 7,979 | 1,955,414 | 24,177,626 | Form |
| 4 | Reed, David L | EVP & CFO | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 242.65 | 21 | 5,096 | 2,109,503 | Form |
| 5 | Stith, Kimberly G | SVP - Chief HR Officer | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 243.13 | 21 | 5,106 | 1,148,469 | Form |
| 6 | Watson, Michael J | Sr. VP-Chief Customer Officer | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 241.81 | 17,251 | 4,171,511 | 10,675,135 | Form |
| 7 | Hemmer, Tara J | SVP & Chief Sustainability Off | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 241.83 | 4,818 | 1,165,137 | 19,084,638 | Form |
| 8 | Reed, David L | EVP & CFO | Direct | Sell | 2272026 | 229.67 | 37 | 8,498 | 2,008,628 | Form |
| 9 | Carroll, John A | VP & Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 2272026 | 229.47 | 37 | 8,491 | 1,884,518 | Form |
| 10 | Smith, Donald J | Sr. VP - Operations | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 233.48 | 12,194 | 2,847,055 | 1,406,484 | Form |
| 11 | Carrasco, Rafael | SVP of Enterprise Strategy | Direct | Sell | 2162026 | 234.50 | 7,352 | 1,724,052 | 3,644,087 | Form |
| 12 | Carroll, John A | VP & Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 2112026 | 234.71 | 1,021 | 239,634 | 1,950,237 | Form |
| 13 | Fish, James C JR | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 2102026 | 230.87 | 5,706 | 1,317,316 | 50,810,385 | Form |
| 14 | Fish, James C JR | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 2102026 | 230.36 | 30,390 | 7,000,732 | 52,014,353 | Form |
| 15 | Fish, James C JR | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 2102026 | 230.00 | 657 | 151,110 | 58,922,090 | Form |
| 16 | Desantis, Christopher P | SVP Operations - East | Direct | Sell | 2022026 | 218.85 | 215 | 47,053 | 2,092,397 | Form |
| 17 | Hemmer, Tara J | SVP & Chief Sustainability Off | Direct | Sell | 2022026 | 219.71 | 690 | 151,596 | 18,397,125 | Form |
| 18 | Watson, Michael J | Sr. VP-Chief Customer Officer | Direct | Sell | 2022026 | 219.79 | 687 | 150,996 | 10,715,926 | Form |
| 19 | Smith, Donald J | Sr. VP - Operations | Direct | Sell | 2022026 | 219.59 | 690 | 151,514 | 2,937,169 | Form |
| 20 | Stith, Kimberly G | SVP - Chief HR Officer | Direct | Sell | 2022026 | 219.65 | 157 | 34,485 | 1,048,995 | Form |
| 21 | Morris, John J | President & COO | Direct | Sell | 2022026 | 219.49 | 690 | 151,445 | 23,404,783 | Form |
| 22 | Carrasco, Rafael | SVP of Enterprise Strategy | Direct | Sell | 2022026 | 219.01 | 690 | 151,114 | 5,013,415 | Form |
| 23 | Boettcher, Charles C | EVP, Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 2022026 | 219.32 | 689 | 151,111 | 12,316,880 | Form |
| 24 | Reed, David L | EVP & CFO | Direct | Sell | 2022026 | 218.62 | 270 | 59,028 | 1,933,200 | Form |
| 25 | Carroll, John A | VP & Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 2022026 | 219.57 | 220 | 48,306 | 2,048,664 | Form |
| 26 | Varkey, Johnson | SVP-Chief Information Officer | Direct | Sell | 2022026 | 219.63 | 428 | 94,004 | 2,245,501 | Form |
| 27 | Carrasco, Rafael | SVP of Enterprise Strategy | Direct | Sell | 11202025 | 217.06 | 1,380 | 299,543 | 3,373,056 | Form |
| 28 | Menke, Sean E | ASM Assets, LP | Buy | 11042025 | 196.42 | 2,000 | 392,840 | 1,436,617 | Form | |
| 29 | Stith, Kimberly G | SVP - Chief HR Officer | Direct | Sell | 9042025 | 225.19 | 100 | 22,520 | 920,926 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 6, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gates Foundation Trust | $6.4 Bil | 20.1% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| Ycg, LLC | $50.7 Mil | 4.6% | 42 | TRIM -10.1% | 13F |
| Westchester Capital Management, Inc. | $20.8 Mil | 4.2% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Mirova US LLC | $313.0 Mil | 3.6% | 42 | Hold | 13F |
| HFR Wealth Management, LLC | $13.1 Mil | 3.2% | 49 | Hold | 13F |
| Partners Group Holding AG | $40.0 Mil | 3.0% | 50 | Hold | 13F |
| Locust Wood Capital Advisers, LLC | $94.6 Mil | 2.6% | 27 | TRIM -8.1% | 13F |
| TSP Capital Management Group, LLC | $9.5 Mil | 2.3% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Blue Whale Capital LLP | $46.8 Mil | 2.2% | 26 | New | 13F |
| Fundsmith Investment Services LTD. | $16.2 Mil | 0.4% | 24 | Hold | 13F |
| Skye Global Management LP | $13.1 Mil | 0.3% | 44 | New | 13F |
| Woodbridge Co Ltd | $19.0 Mil | 0.1% | 46 | New | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gates Foundation Trust | $6.4 Bil | 20.1% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| Mirova US LLC | $313.0 Mil | 3.6% | 42 | Hold | 13F |
| Locust Wood Capital Advisers, LLC | $94.6 Mil | 2.6% | 27 | TRIM -8.1% | 13F |
| Ycg, LLC | $50.7 Mil | 4.6% | 42 | TRIM -10.1% | 13F |
| Blue Whale Capital LLP | $46.8 Mil | 2.2% | 26 | New | 13F |
| Partners Group Holding AG | $40.0 Mil | 3.0% | 50 | Hold | 13F |
| Westchester Capital Management, Inc. | $20.8 Mil | 4.2% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Woodbridge Co Ltd | $19.0 Mil | 0.1% | 46 | New | 13F |
| Fundsmith Investment Services LTD. | $16.2 Mil | 0.4% | 24 | Hold | 13F |
| HFR Wealth Management, LLC | $13.1 Mil | 3.2% | 49 | Hold | 13F |
| Skye Global Management LP | $13.1 Mil | 0.3% | 44 | New | 13F |
| TSP Capital Management Group, LLC | $9.5 Mil | 2.3% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
WM Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
WM is using pricing power in its core business (5.8% core price) to fund a pivot into higher-growth areas. Early signs are positive, with the new Healthcare segment growing operating EBITDA 33% in Q3. While negative core volumes are a key watch item, robust free cash flow growth of 42% year-to-date supports the strategic investments.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Structurally Protected Recurrent RevenueVolume of waste managed x Price per unit/service (Yield) Pricing power exceeding cost inflation (price-cost spread), operational leverage from technology and automation, and internalization of waste into its own disposal network.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests the transition is succeeding, with strong cash flow funding new ventures that are showing early signs of margin improvement and growth.
- Core price in the Collection & Disposal business was strong at 5.8% in Q3 2026.
- The Healthcare Solutions segment grew operating EBITDA by 33% in Q3 2026.
- Free cash flow grew over 42% through the first nine months of 2026.
- Management affirmed 2026 guidance and expects revenue to finish at the high end of the range.
PRIMARY RISK
The multi-billion dollar investments in Healthcare and Sustainability are not yet profitable, posting operating losses in 2025. If management fails to achieve its synergy and margin targets, the significant capital outlay could destroy shareholder value, leaving only the mature, slower-growing core business.
- The Healthcare Solutions segment posted an operating loss of $88 million in 2025.
- The Recycling segment posted an operating loss of $80 million in 2025.
- Collection and Disposal volume was 'modestly negative' in Q3 2026.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Collection & Disposal (C&D) Average Yield | 3.4% for the three months ended September 30, 2026 - Decelerating | The rate of price increases in the core Collection and Disposal business has moderated as the year has progressed, indicating a slowdown in pricing momentum from the start of the year. |
| Collection & Disposal (C&D) Volume | Modestly negative in Q3 2026 - Turning around | Core business volumes have been negative year-over-year, which management attributes to a strategic choice to shed lower-margin residential contracts. While still negative, the rate of decline has been improving sequentially through the year. |
| Core Price (Collection & Disposal) | 5.8% (Q3 2026) | Measures the effectiveness of pricing activities, indicating the company's ability to raise prices on its core services. |
| Operating EBITDA Margin | 31% (Q3 2026) | Indicates core operational profitability before depreciation, depletion, amortization, and accretion. |
Strategic 'Good Shrink' vs. Demand Erosion?
BULL VIEW
Bulls see negative volumes as a deliberate strategy to shed low-margin contracts. This focus on profitability is validated by expanding operating margins and strong free cash flow growth of 42% year-to-date.
CORE TENSION
Can strong pricing and new segment growth offset negative core volumes, which have contributed to two consecutive -5% post-earnings stock declines?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bulls. Management is delivering on synergy targets ahead of schedule and affirmed its full-year guidance, expecting to finish at the high end.
BEAR VIEW
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
1/26/2027 | Negative Earnings Reaction Watch: Guidance for 2027, commentary on volume trends, Healthcare segment profitability, and persistence of higher risk management costs. |
1/26/2027 | Quarterly Earnings Report Watch: The company will report its next quarterly earnings. |
2/15/2027 | Peer Volume Weakness Watch: RSG's commentary on commercial, industrial, and residential volumes could provide a read-through on broader industry demand trends. |
early Q1 of 2027 | Final RNG Plant Commissioning Watch: The final renewable natural gas facility is scheduled to come online. |
No set date | Commodity Price Headwinds Watch: Market prices for recycled paper and plastics (OCC), and prices for D3 RINs, which impact Renewable Energy profitability. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-10-27 | Third Quarter Earnings Reported Details: The company announced Q3 results with revenue of $6.846 billion. The stock had a two-day reaction of -5.0% around the earnings call. | -6.6% $241.02 -> $225.15 |
2026-08-26 | CEO Retirement Announced Details: CEO Jim Fish announced his plan to retire. The Board of Directors appointed President John Morris to the position of President and Chief Executive Officer. | -2.0% $221.15 -> $216.80 |
2026-08-24 | Quarterly Dividend Declared Details: The company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.945 per share, payable September 25, 2026, to stockholders of record on September 11, 2026. | -0.9% $223.07 -> $221.15 |
2026-07-28 | Second Quarter Earnings Reported Details: The company announced its Q2 2026 financial results. The stock had a two-day reaction of -5.0% around the earnings call. | -0.5% $236.85 -> $235.56 |
2026-05-13 | Tara Hemmer Named COO Details: The Board of Directors appointed Tara Hemmer to the position of Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, reporting to the company's President. | +0.5% $215.76 -> $216.92 |
2026-04-28 | First Quarter Earnings Reported Details: The company reported Q1 revenue growth slowed to 3.5% year-over-year, but operating cash flow surged 24.3% and free cash flow jumped 93.7%. | +1.8% $224.23 -> $228.31 |
Position Sizing
5% - 7%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: WM trades at roughly 21% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 11% for the S&P 500 (2.0x the market). A 5% - 7% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
RSG - Republic Services
Pure-Play EfficiencyRepublic Services currently demonstrates a superior cost structure, with a trailing-twelve-month operating margin of 20% versus 18.6% for Waste Management.
CLH - a business partner
Specialized Waste Focusa business partner provides more specialized, higher-margin environmental and industrial services, offering different end-market exposure than WM's residential and commercial solid waste focus.
A resilient infrastructure utility using its cash-generative core to fund a strategic pivot into higher-growth sustainability and healthcare services.
WM's foundation is its irreplaceable network of landfills, which provides a wide moat and significant pricing power for its essential waste services. The company is leveraging the stable, high-margin cash flow from this core business to make substantial investments in three key growth areas: recycling automation, renewable energy (RNG), and the newly acquired Healthcare Solutions business. The central thesis is that these investments will create new, profitable revenue streams, adding a growth dimension to the company's defensive, utility-like profile.
Sustained margin expansion in the core Collection & Disposal business, a clear path to profitability in the Healthcare Solutions and Recycling segments, and successful commissioning and contracting of new RNG plants.
Erosion of core business margins, failure to achieve targeted synergies and profitability in the Healthcare segment, or significant cost overruns and poor returns on sustainability investments.
Quarterly volume fluctuations due to weather or one-time events, and short-term volatility in recycling or RIN commodity prices.
Repricing Catalyst
Demonstrating a clear and accelerated path to profitability and margin expansion in the Healthcare Solutions segment, which showed 33% operating EBITDA growth in Q3 2026, signaling the integration is gaining traction.
East Tier
$11.7B TTM (46% of Total) · 44% MarginWhat It Is
Provides collection, transfer, and disposal services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers in the Eastern U.S., the Great Lakes region, and most of Canada.
Who Pays & How
Municipalities, businesses, and households pay for essential waste collection and disposal. They choose WM for its extensive and efficient local network of collection routes, transfer stations, and landfills.
Competition
West Tier
$11.1B TTM (43% of Total) · 46% MarginWhat It Is
Provides collection, transfer, and disposal services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers in the Western, Southern, and Central U.S., including the upper Midwest and British Columbia, Canada.
Who Pays & How
Municipalities, businesses, and households pay for essential waste collection and disposal. They choose WM for its extensive and efficient local network of collection routes, transfer stations, and landfills.
Competition
Healthcare Solutions
$2.9B TTM (11% of Total) · -4% MarginWhat It Is
Provides regulated waste and compliance services (e.g., medical, pharmaceutical waste) and secure information destruction services to customers in the U.S., Canada, and Western Europe, following the 2024 acquisition of Stericycle.
Who Pays & How
Business-to-business customers, including healthcare providers, pay for specialized services to safely manage regulated materials and protect confidential information, ensuring compliance and safeguarding public health.
Competition
Recycling Processing and Sales
$1.9B TTM (7% of Total) · 0% MarginWhat It Is
Processes and sells recyclable materials (paper, cardboard, glass, plastic, metal) collected from residential, commercial, and industrial customers. It also provides recycling brokerage services.
Who Pays & How
Manufacturers purchase processed commodities to use as feedstock. Customers pay tipping fees for processing, with pricing models shifting to a fee-for-service to cover costs regardless of commodity prices.
Competition
Renewable Energy
$592M TTM (2% of Total) · 47% MarginWhat It Is
Develops and operates landfill gas-to-energy facilities, selling renewable natural gas (RNG), electricity, and associated environmental credits (RINs, RECs) to public utilities, municipal utilities, power cooperatives, and natural gas suppliers.
Who Pays & How
Utilities and energy companies pay for renewable energy to meet regulatory requirements and customer demand for clean energy. Obligated parties under programs like the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) purchase credits to offset fossil fuel production.
Competition
Other Ancillary
$3.3B TTM (13% of Total) · 0% MarginWhat It Is
Provides specialized services supporting collection and disposal operations, including services for large industrial or geographically dispersed customers through its Strategic Business Solutions (WMSBS) and Sustainability and Environmental Solutions (SES) businesses.
Who Pays & How
Large, multi-location customers pay for streamlined service, enhanced reporting, and centralized billing. Other customers pay for solutions to meet sustainability and waste diversion goals.
Competition
Waste Management — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
| IndustryWeek |
| Manufacturing.net |
| Aviation Week |
| Environmental & Facilities Services Resources |
| Waste360 |
| Waste Dive |
| FacilitiesNet |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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