Waste Management (WM)
Market Price (9/19/2026): $211.3 | Market Cap: $678.7 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Industrials | Industry: Environmental & Facilities Services
Waste Management (WM)
Market Price (9/19/2026): $211.3Market Cap: $678.7 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Environmental & Facilities Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, CFO LTM is 6.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.6 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.9 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 20% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Infrastructure, Circular Economy & Recycling, Sustainable Resource Management, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -31%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -33% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 26x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 150x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 104x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 238x Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 625% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.4% Key risksWM key risks include [1] increased operating and capital costs driven by evolving environmental regulations for contaminants like PFAS and [2] revenue volatility from fluctuating market prices for recyclable commodities. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, CFO LTM is 6.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.6 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.9 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 20% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Infrastructure, Circular Economy & Recycling, Sustainable Resource Management, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -31%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -33% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 26x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 150x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 104x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 238x |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 625% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.4% |
| Key risksWM key risks include [1] increased operating and capital costs driven by evolving environmental regulations for contaminants like PFAS and [2] revenue volatility from fluctuating market prices for recyclable commodities. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Waste Management (WM) stock has remained largely at the same level since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings and Free Cash Flow Growth. Waste Management reported robust financial results for fiscal Q2 2026, which ended June 30, 2026, with diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.02, surpassing analyst estimates of $1.98 to $2.00 by 1.00% to 2.1%. The company also demonstrated significant operational strength by generating $1.10 billion in free cash flow, representing a substantial 34.5% increase from the prior year's period. This strong cash flow generation and earnings beat signaled effective operational management and profitability to investors.
2. Sustained Pricing Power and Improved Profit Margins. The company effectively implemented core price increases of 5.7% and achieved a Collection and Disposal yield of 3.6% in fiscal Q2 2026, contributing to a 4.0% year-over-year revenue increase to $6.68 billion. Despite a slight miss on revenue estimates and a lowered full-year 2026 revenue outlook due to weaker volumes, Waste Management maintained its adjusted operating EBITDA and free cash flow guidance for the full year and raised its adjusted operating EBITDA margin guidance by 20 basis points to between 31.0% and 31.2%. This demonstrated pricing discipline and strong cost management, leading to improved profit margins, with total operating EBITDA margin expanding by 90 basis points on a reported basis and 40 basis points on an adjusted basis.
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Waste Management (WM) stock has remained largely at the same level since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings and Free Cash Flow Growth. Waste Management reported robust financial results for fiscal Q2 2026, which ended June 30, 2026, with diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.02, surpassing analyst estimates of $1.98 to $2.00 by 1.00% to 2.1%. The company also demonstrated significant operational strength by generating $1.10 billion in free cash flow, representing a substantial 34.5% increase from the prior year's period. This strong cash flow generation and earnings beat signaled effective operational management and profitability to investors.
2. Sustained Pricing Power and Improved Profit Margins. The company effectively implemented core price increases of 5.7% and achieved a Collection and Disposal yield of 3.6% in fiscal Q2 2026, contributing to a 4.0% year-over-year revenue increase to $6.68 billion. Despite a slight miss on revenue estimates and a lowered full-year 2026 revenue outlook due to weaker volumes, Waste Management maintained its adjusted operating EBITDA and free cash flow guidance for the full year and raised its adjusted operating EBITDA margin guidance by 20 basis points to between 31.0% and 31.2%. This demonstrated pricing discipline and strong cost management, leading to improved profit margins, with total operating EBITDA margin expanding by 90 basis points on a reported basis and 40 basis points on an adjusted basis.
3. Significant Growth and Strategic Investments in Sustainability. Waste Management's sustainability businesses, including recycling and renewable energy, continued to be a key growth driver. Adjusted operating EBITDA from these segments surged by 32.5% to $163 million in fiscal Q2 2026, driven by higher recycling volumes, automation efficiencies, and increased renewable natural gas production. The company continued its strategic investments in this area, including completing three new renewable natural gas facilities and unveiling a new $110 million recycling facility in Denver in July 2026. These investments underscore a positive long-term outlook for the company's diversified business model.
4. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Price Target Revisions. Following the fiscal Q2 2026 earnings report, several Wall Street analysts reiterated or raised their price targets for Waste Management. The stock currently holds a consensus "Moderate Buy" or "Buy" rating from analysts, with an average 12-month price target ranging from approximately $258.89 to $263.00, suggesting a potential upside of 18-19% from recent trading prices. This positive analyst outlook contributed to investor confidence and supported the stock's upward trend.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 0.7% change in WM stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 685.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 209.62 | 211.10 | 0.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 25,413 | 25,667 | 1.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.0% | 11.1% | 1.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 30.3 | 237.7 | 685.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 403 | 3,212 | -87.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.7% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WM | 0.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.9% | -40.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | -2.0% | -23.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -11.2% change in WM stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/18/2026 was primarily driven by a -87.5% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 9182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 237.80 | 211.10 | -11.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 25,204 | 25,667 | 1.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.7% | 11.1% | 3.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 35.4 | 237.7 | 571.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 403 | 3,212 | -87.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -11.2% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WM | -11.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.6% | -31.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | -3.9% | -15.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -4.8% change in WM stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/18/2026 was primarily driven by a -87.5% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 9182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 221.84 | 211.10 | -4.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 23,950 | 25,667 | 7.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.4% | 11.1% | -2.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 32.8 | 237.7 | 624.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 403 | 3,212 | -87.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -4.8% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WM | -4.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 19.4% | -22.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | 12.8% | -3.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 41.6% change in WM stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 797.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312023 | 9182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 149.08 | 211.10 | 41.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 20,021 | 25,667 | 28.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.4% | 11.1% | -2.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 26.5 | 237.7 | 797.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 406 | 3,212 | -87.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 41.6% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WM | 41.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.6% | 9.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 63.4% | 17.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| WM Return | 44% | -4% | 16% | 14% | 11% | -2% | 98% |
| Peers Return | 33% | 11% | 21% | 49% | -7% | 21% | 202% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 103% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| WM Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 50% | 67% | 58% | 56% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 43% | 57% | 63% | 57% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 44% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| WM Max Drawdown | -7% | -17% | -12% | -12% | -18% | -14% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -19% | -24% | -20% | -16% | -30% | -22% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: RSG, CLH, ACM, GEO, WM. See WM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/18/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | WM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -11.6% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.1% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 39 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -13.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 43 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -29.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 357 days | 140 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -21.7% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.7% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 179 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -11.4% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.9% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 79 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -31.1% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.0% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 220 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Waste Management's stock fell -4.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 5.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | WM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -29.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 357 days | 140 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -21.7% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.7% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 179 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -31.1% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.0% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 220 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Waste Management's stock fell -4.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 5.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Waste Management (WM)
Waste Management, Inc. (WM) is a prominent environmental services company operating across North America. Its core business revolves around providing comprehensive waste management solutions, encompassing the entire lifecycle of waste and recyclable materials—from initial collection to processing, recycling, and final disposal. The company plays a crucial role in maintaining environmental health by managing various waste streams effectively.
WM's main services include the collection and transportation of waste and recyclable materials. It operates a vast network of essential infrastructure, including numerous solid waste and hazardous waste landfills, transfer stations, and material recovery facilities (MRFs) for processing recyclables. Beyond traditional waste services, WM also develops and operates landfill gas-to-energy facilities, converting waste into renewable energy. Additionally, it offers specialized solutions such as materials processing and recycling brokerage, construction and remediation services, disposal of industrial by-products like fly ash, in-plant waste management consulting, and specific disposal services for oil and gas exploration and production operations.
The company serves a broad and diverse customer base throughout North America. Its primary markets include residential households, commercial businesses, industrial facilities, and municipal entities. This extensive customer reach underscores Waste Management's position as a vital partner for communities and industries seeking reliable, integrated, and environmentally responsible waste and recycling solutions.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Waste Management (WM):
A utility company, but for waste and recycling services.
The UPS or FedEx for trash and recyclables.
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- Waste Collection and Transportation: Services for picking up and transporting various waste and recyclable materials from customer sites to processing or disposal facilities.
- Waste Disposal and Landfill Management: Operation of solid waste, hazardous waste, and specialized landfills for the secure and environmentally compliant disposal of diverse waste streams.
- Recycling and Materials Processing: Services including operating Material Recovery Facilities (MRFs) to sort and process recyclable materials, and providing recycling brokerage.
- Landfill Gas-to-Energy: Development and operation of facilities that convert landfill gas, a byproduct of landfills, into renewable energy.
- Environmental Consulting and Specialized Services: Offers construction and remediation, in-plant waste management solutions, and specialized disposal services for industrial byproducts like fly ash and oil & gas operations.
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- Residential Customers: These include individual households and homeowners who receive waste collection and recycling services.
- Commercial Customers: This category comprises various businesses, such as offices, retail stores, restaurants, and other commercial establishments that require waste management and recycling solutions.
- Industrial and Municipal Customers: This segment includes large-scale industrial operations, manufacturing facilities, construction sites, and municipal governments (cities, towns, and other local authorities) often under long-term contracts for waste disposal, recycling, and specialized environmental services.
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Key Risks to Waste Management (WM)
- High Debt Load and Acquisition Integration Risks: Waste Management carries a significant debt load, which increased substantially following the acquisition of Stericycle, Inc.. This presents a major financial risk, particularly in an environment of higher interest rates, and has elevated the company's debt-to-equity ratio above that of its industry peers. The integration of an acquisition of Stericycle's size is also complex, with a specific risk that if Selling, General, and Administrative (SG&A) expenses for the Healthcare Solutions segment do not decline towards targeted synergy levels, the anticipated financial benefits and margin expansion may not be realized.
- Commodity Price Volatility in Recycling Operations: The financial performance of Waste Management's recycling segment is highly vulnerable to the volatile market prices and demand for recycled commodities. Fluctuations in these prices can negatively impact the company's operating income and cash flows, as demonstrated by past instances where lower recycled commodity prices directly led to a reduction in revenue guidance.
- Extensive and Evolving Regulatory and Environmental Compliance: Waste Management's diverse operations are subject to extensive and complex environmental, health, and safety laws and regulations across federal, state, provincial, and local levels. Changes in these regulations, including those pertaining to emerging contaminants or extended producer responsibility, have the potential to restrict operations, increase operating costs, raise tax liabilities, decrease revenues, or necessitate substantial additional capital expenditures. The company also faces the risk of incurring significant environmental liabilities if its operations are alleged to cause environmental damage.
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The increasing global adoption of circular economy principles and zero-waste initiatives represents a clear emerging threat. This movement aims to drastically reduce the generation of waste materials, promote extensive reuse, repair, and advanced recycling, thereby diminishing the fundamental need for traditional waste collection, transfer, and landfill disposal services that constitute a significant portion of Waste Management's core business model and asset base.
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Waste Management, Inc. (symbol: WM) operates in several substantial addressable markets across North America.
The overall North America waste management market was valued at approximately USD 196.4 billion in 2024 and is estimated to reach USD 207.21 billion in 2025. It is projected to grow to USD 319.14 billion by 2033, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.5% from 2025 to 2033. Another source indicates the North America waste management market generated revenue of USD 495.1 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 760.2 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 5.6% from 2026 to 2033. This market is segmented by waste type, including municipal solid waste, industrial waste, hazardous waste, e-waste, and organic waste.
For hazardous waste management, North America held the largest revenue share, accounting for approximately 33.1% of the global hazardous waste management market in 2025. The North America hazardous waste management market is projected to reach USD 29,779.5 million by 2033. The global hazardous waste management market size was valued at USD 18.94 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 31.68 billion by 2034, with North America holding 34% of this global market share. The U.S. hazardous waste management market alone generated USD 4,660.1 million in revenue in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 7,257.5 million by 2033.
The North America waste recycling services market size was valued at USD 17.13 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 20.19 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 3.34% during this period. The U.S. dominates North America's waste recycling services market, accounting for about 80% of the share, with a market size valued at USD 13.8 billion in 2024 and projected to reach USD 21.92 billion by 2032.
The North America recycled plastics market was valued at USD 8,162.8 million in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 11,287.2 million by 2033, demonstrating a CAGR of 3.48% from 2025 to 2033. Another report indicates the North America recycled plastics market size was USD 17.48 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 25.98 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 4.50% from 2026 to 2034.
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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Waste Management (WM)
Over the next 2-3 years, Waste Management (WM) is anticipated to drive revenue growth through several strategic initiatives and market dynamics:
- Disciplined Pricing and Core Business Growth: Waste Management expects continued revenue growth from its core collection and disposal business, driven by disciplined pricing strategies and sustained, albeit sometimes modest, volume increases. The company has projected core price growth in the range of 5.4% to 6.5% for 2025 and 2026, alongside expected positive collection and disposal volume growth.
- Integration and Expansion of WM Healthcare Solutions (Stericycle Acquisition): The acquisition of Stericycle in 2024, with full integration expected in 2025, is a significant driver. This expansion into regulated medical waste and secure information destruction services is projected to diversify revenue streams, contribute substantial revenue growth (estimated to be about 40% of WM's projected revenue growth for 2025), and generate significant synergies (up to $250 million by 2027).
- Investments in Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) Facilities: Waste Management is aggressively investing in renewable natural gas (RNG) infrastructure, aiming to have 20 RNG facilities operational by the end of 2026. These projects convert organic waste into clean energy, creating new, high-margin revenue streams and aligning with the company's sustainability goals.
- Recycling Automation and Infrastructure Modernization: The company is investing over $1 billion through 2026 to enhance its recycling capabilities, including the addition of 20 new or fully automated Material Recovery Facilities (MRFs). This investment is aimed at improving operational efficiency, increasing resource recovery rates, and boosting revenue from its recycling processing and sales segments.
- Expansion into High-Margin Niche Services and Cross-Selling: Waste Management is focused on expanding into higher-margin niche services beyond traditional solid waste. This includes leveraging existing relationships with municipal and industrial customers to cross-sell a broader range of specialized services, thereby reducing dependence on conventional disposal volumes and capturing new growth opportunities.
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Share Repurchases
- In December 2025, Waste Management announced a new $3 billion share repurchase authorization, superseding the prior $1.5 billion authorization from 2023.
- The company plans to repurchase approximately $2 billion of its shares during 2026, with repurchases expected to resume after its fourth quarter 2025 financial results.
- Share repurchases amounted to $262 million in 2024, a decrease from $1.30 billion in 2023, as the company prioritized debt reduction following a major acquisition.
Outbound Investments
- Waste Management completed the acquisition of Stericycle for approximately $7.2 billion to $7.7 billion in November 2024, significantly expanding its presence in regulated medical waste and secure information destruction.
- In 2025, the company invested about $400 million in tuck-in acquisitions for solid waste and recycling businesses.
- For 2026, Waste Management expects to return to its typical range of $100 million to $200 million for tuck-in acquisitions.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures were $3.23 billion in 2024, an increase from $2.90 billion in 2023.
- In 2025, the company spent just under $2.6 billion on capital to support the business, along with an additional $633 million on sustainability growth investments.
- Projected capital expenditures for 2026 are between $2.65 billion and $2.75 billion, including approximately $200 million directed towards high-return sustainability projects such as renewable natural gas facilities and recycling growth initiatives.
Peer Outperformance in Environmental & Facilities Services
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WM | Waste Management | 8.7% | 237.7x | -0.6% | 38.4% | 49.6% | — |
| GEO | GEO | 5.3% | 14.2x | 44.5% | 326.9% | 353.1% | +303pp |
| CLH | Clean Harbors | 5.3% | 38.0x | 33.2% | 86.4% | 218.9% | +169pp |
| RSG | Republic Services | 5.4% | 30.7x | -2.7% | 51.2% | 88.1% | +39pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Construction & Engineering | 31 | 7.6% | 101.5% | 179.0% | FIX 2325% · CDNL 2275% · STRL 2177% |
| Marine Transportation | 5 | 83.2% | 67.4% | 170.7% | HOS 44163% · MATX 199% · SFL 171% |
| Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment | 13 | 9.3% | 56.2% | 124.5% | CAT 341% · ALSN 253% · WAB 230% |
| Aerospace & Defense | 55 | -6.6% | 68.1% | 68.1% | ATI 1043% · FTAI 964% · HWM 652% |
| Rail Transportation | 7 | 29.5% | 58.9% | 48.8% | FSTR 143% · CSX 66% · UNP 55% |
| Trading Companies & Distributors | 19 | 3.3% | 36.9% | 48.2% | DXPE 570% · AIT 302% · WCC 212% |
| Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components | 72 | 7.4% | 47.7% | 41.2% | CRS 1269% · PSIX 1091% · EROC 652% |
| Diversified Support Services | 33 | 10.6% | 30.8% | 31.7% | LIME 3498% · TH 499% · WLFC 368% |
| Passenger Ground Transportation | 3 | -25.6% | 34.9% | 30.0% | UBER 77% · CAR 30% · LYFT -71% |
| Cargo Ground Transportation | 16 | 32.4% | -0.2% | 29.4% | XPO 244% · R 242% · CVLG 204% |
| Electrical Components & Equipment | 41 | 3.4% | 55.2% | 20.3% | POWL 2471% · BE 1257% · VRT 956% |
| Building Products | 33 | -13.7% | 1.1% | 18.5% | LMB 701% · GFF 373% · PPIH 293% |
| Industrial Conglomerates | 17 | 8.7% | 5.7% | 6.1% | RCMT 454% · CSW 141% · DD 72% |
| Agricultural & Farm Machinery | 17 | 2.2% | 3.6% | -5.6% | BLBD 191% · DE 109% · GENC 54% |
| Environmental & Facilities Services ← | 29 | -12.5% | 20.6% | -6.6% | CECO 932% · NVRI 354% · GEO 353% |
| Research & Consulting Services | 13 | -14.0% | -24.4% | -9.7% | HURN 205% · CRAI 90% · GRNQ 55% |
| Data Processing & Outsourced Services | 6 | -33.6% | -15.9% | -26.3% | EXLS 44% · BR 7% · G -25% |
| Passenger Airlines | 11 | 3.1% | 10.4% | -28.8% | LTM 3092% · UAL 144% · SKYW 107% |
| Office Services & Supplies | 9 | 6.6% | 20.5% | -35.1% | PBI 194% · TILE 141% · HNI 46% |
| Human Resource & Employment Services | 22 | 5.4% | -20.1% | -38.0% | BBSI 88% · ADP 53% · PAYX 25% |
| Air Freight & Logistics | 12 | -13.0% | -21.1% | -38.5% | CHRW 97% · FDX 64% · EXPD 63% |
| Security & Alarm Services | 10 | -26.4% | 17.5% | -44.2% | CIX 150% · MG 127% · NL 63% |
| Airport Services | 3 | -72.8% | -79.0% | -58.3% | JOBY -34% · ASLE -58% · UP -100% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 211.10 |
| Mkt Cap | 16.7 |
| Rev LTM | 15,393 |
| Op Inc LTM | 739 |
| FCF LTM | 458 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 575 |
| CFO LTM | 903 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 796 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 11.0% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 4.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 16.7 |
| P/S | 2.7 |
| P/Op Inc | 19.8 |
| P/EBIT | 21.3 |
| P/E | 30.7 |
| P/CFO | 20.9 |
| Total Yield | 4.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 6.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 0.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -0.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 51.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 4.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -17.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -16.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -21.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Tier | 11,482 | 10,955 | 10,533 | 9,920 | 8,922 |
| West Tier | 10,900 | 10,337 | 9,897 | 9,479 | 8,703 |
| Other Ancillary | 3,163 | 2,915 | 2,711 | 2,413 | 2,041 |
| Healthcare Solutions | 2,951 | 471 | |||
| Recycling Processing and Sales | 1,866 | 1,890 | 1,576 | 1,760 | 1,760 |
| Renewable Energy | 481 | 321 | 276 | 315 | 220 |
| Corporate and Other | 52 | 48 | 46 | 49 | 47 |
| Intercompany Elimination | -5,691 | -4,874 | -4,613 | -4,238 | -3,762 |
| Total | 25,204 | 22,063 | 20,426 | 19,698 | 17,931 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Tier | 2,904 | 2,760 | 2,446 | 2,178 | 1,955 |
| West Tier | 2,889 | 2,693 | 2,383 | 2,182 | 1,939 |
| Renewable Energy | 135 | 99 | 79 | 132 | 108 |
| Other Ancillary | -16 | -9 | -8 | 0 | -18 |
| Recycling Processing and Sales | -80 | 86 | -44 | 128 | 217 |
| Healthcare Solutions | -88 | -69 | |||
| Corporate and Other | -1,436 | -1,497 | -1,281 | -1,255 | -1,236 |
| Total | 4,308 | 4,063 | 3,575 | 3,365 | 2,965 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Tier | 16,099 | 15,328 | 14,328 | 14,741 | 14,269 |
| West Tier | 12,245 | 11,786 | 11,322 | 11,916 | 11,476 |
| Healthcare Solutions | 9,002 | 9,406 | |||
| Corporate and Other | 3,888 | 3,785 | 3,392 | 3,048 | 2,372 |
| Recycling Processing and Sales | 2,718 | 2,686 | 2,282 | ||
| Renewable Energy | 1,976 | 1,544 | 1,077 | ||
| Other Ancillary | 801 | 779 | 783 | ||
| Elimination of intercompany investments and advances | -894 | -747 | -361 | -310 | -295 |
| Other | 1,972 | 1,275 | |||
| Total | 45,835 | 44,567 | 32,823 | 31,367 | 29,097 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $211.10 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 678.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/30/1991 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -13.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $225.02 | $223.30 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | -6.2% | -5.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 22.0% | 20.2% |
| Downside Capture | -83.94 | -53.51 |
| Upside Capture | -80.67 | -44.37 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -36.2% | -23.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.44 | -0.83 | -0.81 | -0.54 | -0.38 | 0.12 |
| Up Beta | 0.02 | -1.13 | -0.98 | -0.50 | -0.41 | 0.19 |
| Down Beta | 0.81 | 0.91 | 0.14 | 0.17 | -0.03 | 0.20 |
| Up Capture | -88% | -98% | -80% | -51% | -24% | 2% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 6 | 16 | 28 | 56 | 124 | 402 |
| Down Capture | -70% | -135% | -157% | -110% | -93% | -10% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 15 | 26 | 36 | 71 | 127 | 346 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with WM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WM | -0.5% | 20.2% | -0.14 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.5% | 17.2% | 0.57 | -4.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.9% | 12.9% | 0.94 | -23.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.1% | 29.3% | 0.60 | -8.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 46.9% | 20.6% | 1.76 | 5.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 13.6% | 0.10 | 32.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -34.5% | 43.9% | -0.84 | -14.4% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with WM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WM | 8.1% | 19.0% | 0.31 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.4% | 17.6% | 0.54 | 32.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.9% | 17.2% | 0.57 | 27.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.1% | 18.8% | 0.83 | 5.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.3% | 19.5% | 0.45 | 7.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.1% | 18.8% | -0.05 | 40.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 11.2% | 52.5% | 0.39 | 5.5% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with WM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WM | 14.7% | 19.7% | 0.65 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.1% | 20.1% | 0.57 | 52.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 18.0% | 0.72 | 49.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.1% | 16.4% | 0.61 | 4.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.3% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 12.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.4% | 20.7% | 0.18 | 54.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 61.7% | 66.1% | 1.02 | 9.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 8/28/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/28/2026 | -1.2% | -5.9% | -7.6% |
| 4/28/2026 | 1.3% | -1.3% | -5.7% |
| 1/28/2026 | -3.7% | -2.2% | 4.0% |
| 10/27/2025 | -4.5% | -8.0% | 1.2% |
| 7/28/2025 | 3.4% | 1.2% | -1.2% |
| 4/28/2025 | -0.1% | 2.5% | 3.5% |
| 1/30/2025 | 6.1% | 7.3% | 11.1% |
| 10/28/2024 | 5.2% | 2.9% | 9.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 12 | 15 |
| # Negative | 12 | 12 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 2.8% | 3.3% | 5.0% |
| Median Negative | -1.2% | -2.8% | -3.1% |
| Max Positive | 6.1% | 10.5% | 11.9% |
| Max Negative | -8.0% | -8.0% | -7.8% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/28/2026 | -1.2% | -5.9% | -7.6% |
| 4/28/2026 | 1.3% | -1.3% | -5.7% |
| 1/28/2026 | -3.7% | -2.2% | 4.0% |
| 10/27/2025 | -4.5% | -8.0% | 1.2% |
| 7/28/2025 | 3.4% | 1.2% | -1.2% |
| 4/28/2025 | -0.1% | 2.5% | 3.5% |
| 1/30/2025 | 6.1% | 7.3% | 11.1% |
| 10/28/2024 | 5.2% | 2.9% | 9.2% |
| 7/24/2024 | -8.0% | -6.8% | -3.3% |
| 4/25/2024 | -1.2% | -2.6% | -1.8% |
| 2/13/2024 | -0.2% | 2.4% | 5.8% |
| 10/24/2023 | 6.1% | 6.3% | 11.1% |
| 7/25/2023 | -4.0% | -5.4% | -7.8% |
| 4/27/2023 | 2.7% | 3.8% | -0.2% |
| 2/1/2023 | -0.2% | -2.2% | -3.1% |
| 10/26/2022 | -3.1% | -5.2% | -0.6% |
| 7/27/2022 | 2.8% | 5.4% | 11.9% |
| 4/26/2022 | 5.3% | 2.0% | 1.1% |
| 2/2/2022 | -1.1% | -3.1% | 2.0% |
| 10/26/2021 | -1.2% | -1.2% | 2.3% |
| 7/27/2021 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 3.9% |
| 4/27/2021 | 0.8% | 4.8% | 5.0% |
| 2/18/2021 | 1.1% | -0.3% | 9.2% |
| 11/2/2020 | 2.6% | 10.5% | 10.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 12 | 15 |
| # Negative | 12 | 12 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 2.8% | 3.3% | 5.0% |
| Median Negative | -1.2% | -2.8% | -3.1% |
| Max Positive | 6.1% | 10.5% | 11.9% |
| Max Negative | -8.0% | -8.0% | -7.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/09/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/28/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/13/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/07/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/09/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/28/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/13/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/07/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/15/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/26/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/27/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/27/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/22/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/02/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/30/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/13/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/23/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/29/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/28/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 26.27 Bil | 26.38 Bil | 26.48 Bil | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted Operating EBITDA Margin | Reported | 31.0% | 31.1% | 31.2% | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted Operating EBITDA | Reported | 8.15 Bil | 8.20 Bil | 8.25 Bil | ||||
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | Reported | 3.75 Bil | 3.80 Bil | 3.85 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.80 Bil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/28/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | Reported | 3.75 Bil | 3.80 Bil | 3.85 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.80 Bil for 2026 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/28/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 26.43 Bil | 26.52 Bil | 26.62 Bil | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted operating EBITDA margin | Reported | 30.8% | 30.9% | 31.0% | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted operating EBITDA | Reported | 8.15 Bil | 8.20 Bil | 8.25 Bil | ||||
| 2026 Free cash flow | Reported | 3.75 Bil | 3.80 Bil | 3.85 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.80 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Dividends and share repurchases | Reported | 3.50 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Share repurchases | Reported | 2.00 Bil | ||||||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/27/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Revenue | Reported | 25.27 Bil | -0.4% | Lowered | Guidance: 25.38 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Adjusted Operating EBITDA Margin | Reported | 29.6% | 29.9% | 30.2% | 0.2% | Raised | Guidance: 29.75% for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted Operating EBITDA | Reported | 7.47 Bil | 7.55 Bil | 7.62 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 7.55 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Free Cash Flow | Reported | 2.80 Bil | 2.85 Bil | 2.90 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.85 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | Reported | 3.80 Bil | ||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 9/8/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carroll, John A | VP & Chief Accounting Officer | Jjc Cache Llc | Sell | 9082026 | 219.90 | 1,365 | 300,164 | 771,616 | Form |
| 2 | Carrasco, Rafael | SVP of Enterprise Strategy | Direct | Sell | 6082026 | 220.47 | 2,655 | 585,335 | 3,425,969 | Form |
| 3 | Morris, John J | President & COO | Direct | Sell | 3092026 | 245.07 | 7,979 | 1,955,414 | 24,177,626 | Form |
| 4 | Reed, David L | EVP & CFO | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 242.65 | 21 | 5,096 | 2,109,503 | Form |
| 5 | Stith, Kimberly G | SVP - Chief HR Officer | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 243.13 | 21 | 5,106 | 1,148,469 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carroll, John A | VP & Chief Accounting Officer | Jjc Cache Llc | Sell | 9082026 | 219.90 | 1,365 | 300,164 | 771,616 | Form |
| 2 | Carrasco, Rafael | SVP of Enterprise Strategy | Direct | Sell | 6082026 | 220.47 | 2,655 | 585,335 | 3,425,969 | Form |
| 3 | Morris, John J | President & COO | Direct | Sell | 3092026 | 245.07 | 7,979 | 1,955,414 | 24,177,626 | Form |
| 4 | Reed, David L | EVP & CFO | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 242.65 | 21 | 5,096 | 2,109,503 | Form |
| 5 | Stith, Kimberly G | SVP - Chief HR Officer | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 243.13 | 21 | 5,106 | 1,148,469 | Form |
| 6 | Watson, Michael J | Sr. VP-Chief Customer Officer | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 241.81 | 17,251 | 4,171,511 | 10,675,135 | Form |
| 7 | Hemmer, Tara J | SVP & Chief Sustainability Off | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 241.83 | 4,818 | 1,165,137 | 19,084,638 | Form |
| 8 | Reed, David L | EVP & CFO | Direct | Sell | 2272026 | 229.67 | 37 | 8,498 | 2,008,628 | Form |
| 9 | Carroll, John A | VP & Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 2272026 | 229.47 | 37 | 8,491 | 1,884,518 | Form |
| 10 | Smith, Donald J | Sr. VP - Operations | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 233.48 | 12,194 | 2,847,055 | 1,406,484 | Form |
| 11 | Carrasco, Rafael | SVP of Enterprise Strategy | Direct | Sell | 2162026 | 234.50 | 7,352 | 1,724,052 | 3,644,087 | Form |
| 12 | Carroll, John A | VP & Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 2112026 | 234.71 | 1,021 | 239,634 | 1,950,237 | Form |
| 13 | Fish, James C JR | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 2102026 | 230.87 | 5,706 | 1,317,316 | 50,810,385 | Form |
| 14 | Fish, James C JR | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 2102026 | 230.36 | 30,390 | 7,000,732 | 52,014,353 | Form |
| 15 | Fish, James C JR | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 2102026 | 230.00 | 657 | 151,110 | 58,922,090 | Form |
| 16 | Desantis, Christopher P | SVP Operations - East | Direct | Sell | 2022026 | 218.85 | 215 | 47,053 | 2,092,397 | Form |
| 17 | Hemmer, Tara J | SVP & Chief Sustainability Off | Direct | Sell | 2022026 | 219.71 | 690 | 151,596 | 18,397,125 | Form |
| 18 | Watson, Michael J | Sr. VP-Chief Customer Officer | Direct | Sell | 2022026 | 219.79 | 687 | 150,996 | 10,715,926 | Form |
| 19 | Smith, Donald J | Sr. VP - Operations | Direct | Sell | 2022026 | 219.59 | 690 | 151,514 | 2,937,169 | Form |
| 20 | Stith, Kimberly G | SVP - Chief HR Officer | Direct | Sell | 2022026 | 219.65 | 157 | 34,485 | 1,048,995 | Form |
| 21 | Morris, John J | President & COO | Direct | Sell | 2022026 | 219.49 | 690 | 151,445 | 23,404,783 | Form |
| 22 | Carrasco, Rafael | SVP of Enterprise Strategy | Direct | Sell | 2022026 | 219.01 | 690 | 151,114 | 5,013,415 | Form |
| 23 | Boettcher, Charles C | EVP, Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 2022026 | 219.32 | 689 | 151,111 | 12,316,880 | Form |
| 24 | Reed, David L | EVP & CFO | Direct | Sell | 2022026 | 218.62 | 270 | 59,028 | 1,933,200 | Form |
| 25 | Carroll, John A | VP & Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 2022026 | 219.57 | 220 | 48,306 | 2,048,664 | Form |
| 26 | Varkey, Johnson | SVP-Chief Information Officer | Direct | Sell | 2022026 | 219.63 | 428 | 94,004 | 2,245,501 | Form |
| 27 | Carrasco, Rafael | SVP of Enterprise Strategy | Direct | Sell | 11202025 | 217.06 | 1,380 | 299,543 | 3,373,056 | Form |
| 28 | Menke, Sean E | ASM Assets, LP | Buy | 11042025 | 196.42 | 2,000 | 392,840 | 1,436,617 | Form | |
| 29 | Stith, Kimberly G | SVP - Chief HR Officer | Direct | Sell | 9042025 | 225.19 | 100 | 22,520 | 920,926 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Sep 19, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gates Foundation Trust | $6.4 Bil | 20.1% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| Ycg, LLC | $50.7 Mil | 4.6% | 42 | TRIM -10.1% | 13F |
| Westchester Capital Management, Inc. | $20.8 Mil | 4.2% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Mirova US LLC | $313.0 Mil | 3.6% | 42 | Hold | 13F |
| HFR Wealth Management, LLC | $13.1 Mil | 3.2% | 49 | Hold | 13F |
| Partners Group Holding AG | $40.0 Mil | 3.0% | 50 | Hold | 13F |
| Locust Wood Capital Advisers, LLC | $94.6 Mil | 2.6% | 27 | TRIM -8.1% | 13F |
| TSP Capital Management Group, LLC | $9.5 Mil | 2.3% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Blue Whale Capital LLP | $46.8 Mil | 2.2% | 26 | New | 13F |
| Fundsmith Investment Services LTD. | $16.2 Mil | 0.4% | 24 | Hold | 13F |
| Skye Global Management LP | $13.1 Mil | 0.3% | 44 | New | 13F |
| Woodbridge Co Ltd | $19.0 Mil | 0.1% | 46 | New | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gates Foundation Trust | $6.4 Bil | 20.1% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| Mirova US LLC | $313.0 Mil | 3.6% | 42 | Hold | 13F |
| Locust Wood Capital Advisers, LLC | $94.6 Mil | 2.6% | 27 | TRIM -8.1% | 13F |
| Ycg, LLC | $50.7 Mil | 4.6% | 42 | TRIM -10.1% | 13F |
| Blue Whale Capital LLP | $46.8 Mil | 2.2% | 26 | New | 13F |
| Partners Group Holding AG | $40.0 Mil | 3.0% | 50 | Hold | 13F |
| Westchester Capital Management, Inc. | $20.8 Mil | 4.2% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Woodbridge Co Ltd | $19.0 Mil | 0.1% | 46 | New | 13F |
| Fundsmith Investment Services LTD. | $16.2 Mil | 0.4% | 24 | Hold | 13F |
| HFR Wealth Management, LLC | $13.1 Mil | 3.2% | 49 | Hold | 13F |
| Skye Global Management LP | $13.1 Mil | 0.3% | 44 | New | 13F |
| TSP Capital Management Group, LLC | $9.5 Mil | 2.3% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
WM Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
WM is successfully trading lower-quality revenue for higher profits, evidenced by a 20 basis point increase in its 2026 margin outlook despite softer volumes. This strategy is supported by strong pricing power in its core business. The investment case now depends on management delivering its guided second-half 2026 revenue inflection in the newly acquired Healthcare Solutions segment.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Recurring Services & Commodity SalesRevenue = (Number of Customers x Price per Service) + (Disposal Volume x Tipping Fee) + (Commodity Volume x Commodity Price) Margin expansion in the core Collection & Disposal business through pricing power (yield) and operational efficiency, driven by the company's landfill network moat.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests WM's pricing power and cost controls are creating a more profitable, albeit slower-growing, business.
- Trailing-twelve-month operating margin expanded to 18.5% from 17.9% a year earlier.
- Management increased 2026 margin expectations by 20 basis points.
- Collection and Disposal yield is tracking toward the high end of the guidance range.
- Healthcare Solutions expanded operating EBITDA margin by 200 basis points in the latest quarter.
PRIMARY RISK
The Healthcare Solutions acquisition and sustainability investments could fail to generate sufficient profitable growth to offset maturing trends and volume softness in the core business.
- The Healthcare Solutions segment reported an operating loss of $88 million in 2025.
- Full-year 2026 Collection and Disposal volumes are now expected to decline by nearly 1%.
- The Recycling segment posted an operating loss of $80 million in 2025.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Collection and Disposal (C&D) Average Yield | 3.6% for Q2 2026 - Stable | C&D yield, a proxy for pricing power, exceeded management's expectations in the latest quarter. While the rate has slightly moderated from the first six months of 2026, it remains robust and is a primary driver of profitability, reflecting disciplined pricing execution. |
| Collection and Disposal (C&D) Volume | -0.4% for Q2 2026 (excluding prior-year wildfire activity) - Weakening | Volume trends have been softer than anticipated, impacted by severe winter weather in Q1 and a difficult comparison in Q2 against elevated wildfire-related activity in the prior year. Management is also intentionally shedding lower-margin residential contracts, which negatively impacts reported volume but is aimed at improving profitability. Excluding the wildfire impact, special waste and industrial collection volumes showed modest growth. |
| Collection and Disposal Yield | (Q2 2026) | Reflects the effect of pricing activities from collection, transfer, and landfill operations, exclusive of volume changes. It is a key measure of the company's ability to realize price increases. |
| Total Recordable Incident Rate (TRIR) | 3.14 (as of 12/31/2025) | Market rewards The company has a stated goal of targeting a TRIR of 2.0 annually by 2030.. It is a key indicator of operational safety and efficiency, with lower rates being better. |
| Driver and Technician Turnover | 17.2% (Q1 2026) | Measures the rate of employee turnover for key frontline positions. Low turnover supports safer operations, higher service reliability, and greater efficiency. |
Profitable Pruning vs. Cyclical Slowdown
BULL VIEW
Bulls see a deliberate strategy to shed low-margin contracts, which, combined with strong pricing, is driving higher-quality earnings and a 20 basis point margin guidance increase.
CORE TENSION
Can strong pricing and cost control offset a guided 1% decline in 2026 Collection and Disposal volumes, which the market punished with a -5.0% stock reaction?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bull view. Management's ability to raise margin guidance while lowering the revenue outlook shows strong operational control and supports the profitable pruning narrative.
BEAR VIEW
Bears see the 1% guided decline in core 2026 volumes as a sign of a broader economic slowdown that pricing power cannot fully overcome, a view that drove a -5.0% post-earnings stock move.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Next earnings call (Q3 2026 results) | Continued Volume Weakness Watch: Q3 volume results for Collection and Disposal, particularly special waste and industrial, and any revision to full-year guidance. |
Next earnings call (Q3 2026 results) | Healthcare Revenue Inflection Fails Watch: Healthcare Solutions segment revenue growth rate for Q3 and management commentary on pricing realization and cross-selling traction. |
11/4/2026 | Peer Reports Signal Sector Slowdown Watch: Volume and pricing commentary from peers GEO (11/4/2026) and AECOM (11/16/2026) for signs of broader industry demand weakness. |
11/16/2026 | Peer AECOM Earnings Report Watch: Peer AECOM (ACM) is scheduled to report earnings. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-08-26 | CEO Retirement Announced Details: The company announced that CEO Jim Fish plans to retire. The Board of Directors appointed President John Morris to the position of President and Chief Executive Officer. | -2.0% $221.15 -> $216.80 |
2026-08-24 | Quarterly Dividend Declared Details: The company announced the declaration of a quarterly cash dividend of $0.945 per share, payable on September 25, 2026. | -0.9% $223.07 -> $221.15 |
2026-07-28 | Second Quarter Earnings Announced Details: The company announced Q2 revenue of $6.684 billion, a 4.0% year-over-year increase. The stock had a two-day reaction of -5.0% around the earnings call. | -0.5% $236.85 -> $235.56 |
2026-05-13 | Tara Hemmer Named COO Details: The company announced its Board of Directors appointed Tara Hemmer to the position of Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer. | +0.5% $215.76 -> $216.92 |
2026-04-29 | First Quarter Earnings Reported Details: Q1 revenue growth slowed to 3.5% year-over-year, but operating cash flow surged 24.3% and free cash flow jumped 93.7%, according to press reports. | +2.3% $225.37 -> $230.53 |
2026-03-23 | Analyst Consensus Price Target Set Details: Press reports indicated that twenty-five research firms covering the stock had set a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" and a target price of $254.59. | -2.7% $229.23 -> $222.98 |
Position Sizing
5% - 7%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: WM trades at roughly 18% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 13% for the S&P 500 (1.3x the market), around the 29th percentile of its own trailing year. A 5% - 7% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
RSG - Republic Services
Pure-Play CompetitorRepublic Services exhibits a superior cost structure, with a trailing-twelve-month operating margin of 20% compared to WM's 18.5%. This may offer a more defensive posture focused on core operational efficiency.
CLH - a business partner
Specialized Waste Focusa business partner provides exposure to more specialized and complex waste streams, such as incineration, which can be subject to different economic and regulatory drivers than municipal solid waste.
A utility-like industrial with a powerful moat, leveraging its dominant landfill network to fund and integrate higher-growth but more volatile sustainability and healthcare ventures.
WM's core business is a highly profitable, resilient cash-generation machine built on its unmatched network of landfills, which creates a significant barrier to entry. The company is using this stable foundation to invest heavily in higher-growth areas like renewable energy (RNG) and medical waste (via the Stericycle acquisition). While these new segments are currently dilutive to margins and expose the company to commodity and integration risks, they represent a strategic pivot to capture long-term value from sustainability trends and an aging population.
News of continued margin expansion in the core business, successful integration and synergy capture in Healthcare Solutions, and stable or rising RIN/recycled commodity prices.
News of significant regulatory changes restricting landfill operations (e.g., PFAS liability), major operational failures, or a sustained downturn in commodity prices that impairs the return on sustainability investments.
Short-term stock price underperformance relative to the broader market or tech stocks.
Repricing Catalyst
Successful integration of the Healthcare Solutions business, demonstrating a clear path to profitability and synergy realization, and continued strong free cash flow generation from the maturing sustainability investments.
Collection and Disposal - East Tier
$11.6B TTM (46% of Total) · 43% MarginWhat It Is
Provides waste collection, transfer, and landfill disposal services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers in the Eastern U.S., the Great Lakes region, and most of Canada.
Who Pays & How
Municipalities, businesses, and households pay for the essential service of waste removal and disposal. WM is chosen for its extensive network of landfills and transfer stations, which provides efficient and compliant disposal solutions.
Competition
Collection and Disposal - West Tier
$11.0B TTM (43% of Total) · 46% MarginWhat It Is
Provides waste collection, transfer, and landfill disposal services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers in the Western, Southern, and Central U.S., including the upper Midwest and British Columbia, Canada.
Who Pays & How
Municipalities, businesses, and households pay for essential waste removal and disposal. WM's extensive network of landfills and transfer stations offers efficient and compliant disposal solutions, which is critical in areas where disposal sites are distant.
Competition
Recycling Processing and Sales
$1.9B TTM (7% of Total) · -1% MarginWhat It Is
Processes and sells recyclable materials (paper, cardboard, glass, plastic, metal) collected from residential, commercial, and industrial customers to manufacturers for reuse. Also provides recycling brokerage services.
Who Pays & How
Manufacturers purchase processed commodities for use in new products. Customers (municipalities, businesses) pay tipping fees for processing, with pricing models transitioning to a fee-for-service structure to cover costs regardless of commodity prices.
Competition
Renewable Energy
$550M TTM (2% of Total) · 44% MarginWhat It Is
Develops, operates, and owns landfill gas-to-energy facilities. It sells renewable natural gas (RNG) to natural gas suppliers, electricity to utilities, and environmental credits (RINs, RECs) to obligated parties like oil refiners.
Who Pays & How
Utilities, natural gas suppliers, and obligated parties under regulatory programs (like the federal Renewable Fuel Standard) pay for renewable energy and credits to meet regulatory requirements and sustainability goals.
Competition
Healthcare Solutions
$3.0B TTM (12% of Total) · -5% MarginWhat It Is
Provides regulated waste and compliance services (e.g., medical, pharmaceutical waste) and secure information destruction (SID) services to customers in the U.S., Canada, and Western Europe. This segment was formed from the 2024 acquisition of Stericycle.
Who Pays & How
Healthcare providers, pharmaceutical companies, and other businesses pay for the safe and compliant collection, processing, and disposal of regulated and specialized waste to protect public health and brands, and to safeguard confidential information.
Competition
Other Ancillary
$3.2B TTM (13% of Total) · -1% MarginWhat It Is
Provides specialized services that support the main collection and disposal operations, such as managing waste for large, geographically dispersed customers (WMSBS) and offering sustainability and environmental solutions (SES).
Who Pays & How
Large national account customers pay for streamlined service, enhanced reporting, and centralized billing. Other customers pay for solutions to meet sustainability, recycling, and waste diversion goals.
Competition
Waste Management — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
| IndustryWeek |
| Manufacturing.net |
| Aviation Week |
| Environmental & Facilities Services Resources |
| Waste360 |
| Waste Dive |
| FacilitiesNet |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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