Frontdoor (FTDR)
Market Price (11/7/2026): $97.11 | Market Cap: $6.6 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Specialized Consumer Services
Frontdoor (FTDR)
Market Price (11/7/2026): $97.11Market Cap: $6.6 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Specialized Consumer Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 20% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.9% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 44% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include IoT for Buildings, Building Management Systems, and Real Estate Data Analytics. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% | Key risksFTDR key risks include [1] significant indebtedness of approximately $2.5 billion that limits financial flexibility and [2] a heavy operational dependence on its large network of independent contractors for service delivery. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 20% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.9% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 44% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include IoT for Buildings, Building Management Systems, and Real Estate Data Analytics. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Key risksFTDR key risks include [1] significant indebtedness of approximately $2.5 billion that limits financial flexibility and [2] a heavy operational dependence on its large network of independent contractors for service delivery. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Frontdoor (FTDR) stock has gained about 35% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Frontdoor demonstrated consistent financial outperformance, delivering adjusted earnings per share and revenue beats in both fiscal Q2 2026 and fiscal Q3 2026. The company reported adjusted EPS of $1.93 in fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 2026), surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.76, with quarterly revenue reaching $645 million, exceeding analysts' expectations of $643.40 million. This trend continued into fiscal Q3 2026 (ended September 2026), where adjusted EPS of $1.81 beat the consensus estimate of $1.77, and revenue increased 6% year-over-year to $655 million, topping the $647.73 million consensus.
2. The company provided optimistic full-year 2026 financial guidance, with upward revisions following strong quarterly results. After its solid fiscal Q2 2026 performance, Frontdoor raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $2.19 billion to $2.21 billion and increased its adjusted EBITDA guidance to between $585 million and $600 million. Following the robust fiscal Q3 2026 results, Frontdoor further lifted its full-year 2026 revenue outlook to a range of $2.205 billion to $2.215 billion, representing an approximate 6% increase over full-year 2025, and projected adjusted EBITDA of $590 million to $600 million.
Show more
Frontdoor (FTDR) stock has gained about 35% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Frontdoor demonstrated consistent financial outperformance, delivering adjusted earnings per share and revenue beats in both fiscal Q2 2026 and fiscal Q3 2026. The company reported adjusted EPS of $1.93 in fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 2026), surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.76, with quarterly revenue reaching $645 million, exceeding analysts' expectations of $643.40 million. This trend continued into fiscal Q3 2026 (ended September 2026), where adjusted EPS of $1.81 beat the consensus estimate of $1.77, and revenue increased 6% year-over-year to $655 million, topping the $647.73 million consensus.
2. The company provided optimistic full-year 2026 financial guidance, with upward revisions following strong quarterly results. After its solid fiscal Q2 2026 performance, Frontdoor raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $2.19 billion to $2.21 billion and increased its adjusted EBITDA guidance to between $585 million and $600 million. Following the robust fiscal Q3 2026 results, Frontdoor further lifted its full-year 2026 revenue outlook to a range of $2.205 billion to $2.215 billion, representing an approximate 6% increase over full-year 2025, and projected adjusted EBITDA of $590 million to $600 million.
3. Revenue growth was driven by effective pricing strategies, increased volume, and the success of new service offerings, particularly in non-warranty segments. In fiscal Q3 2026, the 6% year-over-year revenue increase was attributed to a 3% rise from higher realized prices and a 3% increase from higher volume. Renewal revenue, a significant component, grew by 4%. Notably, the "Other" revenue category surged by 32%, primarily due to the strong performance of the New HVAC upgrade program, highlighting successful diversification and new initiatives.
4. Frontdoor announced a substantial new share repurchase authorization, signaling confidence in future performance and a commitment to shareholder returns. In November 2026, coinciding with its fiscal Q3 2026 earnings release, Frontdoor's Board of Directors approved a new 3-year, $1 billion share repurchase authorization. This follows the completion of $259 million in share repurchases through September 2026, which was up over 30% year-to-date, demonstrating a continued focus on returning capital to shareholders.
Show less
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 33.7% change in FTDR stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 19.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 72.63 | 97.09 | 33.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,119 | 2,186 | 3.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.3% | 13.0% | 5.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.7 | 23.5 | 19.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 71 | 69 | 2.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 33.7% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FTDR | 33.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | -1.6% | 8.1% |
| Sector (XLY) | 1.3% | 22.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 41.5% change in FTDR stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 26.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 68.63 | 97.09 | 41.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,119 | 2,186 | 3.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.3% | 13.0% | 5.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 18.6 | 23.5 | 26.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 71 | 69 | 2.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 41.5% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FTDR | 41.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.6% | 8.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | -0.5% | 26.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 46.2% change in FTDR stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 23.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 66.43 | 97.09 | 46.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,966 | 2,186 | 11.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.1% | 13.0% | -0.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.0 | 23.5 | 23.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 74 | 69 | 7.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 46.2% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FTDR | 46.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.7% | 18.5% |
| Sector (XLY) | -1.4% | 30.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 235.6% change in FTDR stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 73.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 28.93 | 97.09 | 235.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,712 | 2,186 | 27.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.5% | 13.0% | 73.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 18.4 | 23.5 | 27.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 81 | 69 | 18.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 235.6% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FTDR | 235.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 81.9% | 29.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | 58.2% | 34.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FTDR Return | -27% | -43% | 69% | 55% | 6% | 68% | 93% |
| Peers Return | 24% | -42% | 33% | 14% | 21% | 12% | 48% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FTDR Win Rate | 33% | 33% | 58% | 50% | 58% | 64% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 38% | 53% | 48% | 55% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 45% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FTDR Max Drawdown | -44% | -49% | -23% | -16% | -41% | -25% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -27% | -55% | -42% | -32% | -40% | -35% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: FAF, ORI, FNF, ANGI, PRCH. See FTDR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/6/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | FTDR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -36.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.0% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 94 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -17.4% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.0% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 10 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -10.3% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.4% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 48 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -46.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 87.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 594 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -33.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 55 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -50.9% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 103.7% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 223 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Frontdoor's stock fell -36.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 57.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | FTDR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -36.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.0% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 94 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -46.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 87.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 594 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -33.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 55 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -50.9% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 103.7% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 223 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Frontdoor's stock fell -36.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 57.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Frontdoor (FTDR)
Frontdoor, Inc. (FTDR) is a leading provider of home service plans, often referred to as home warranties, in the United States. Its core business involves offering homeowners comprehensive coverage for the repair or replacement of principal components across approximately 20 major home systems and appliances. This typically includes essential items like electrical and plumbing systems, central heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) units, water heaters, and key kitchen appliances such as refrigerators, dishwashers, and ovens/cooktops.
Beyond its traditional home service plans, Frontdoor has expanded its offerings to include modern home service solutions. The company operates ProConnect, an on-demand home services business that facilitates quick access to professionals for various home repair needs. Furthermore, Frontdoor leverages advanced technology through its Streem platform, which utilizes augmented reality, computer vision, and machine learning to enable home service professionals to more accurately diagnose issues and efficiently complete repairs.
Frontdoor primarily serves homeowners across the U.S. under a portfolio of well-known brands, including American Home Shield, HSA, Landmark Home Warranty, and OneGuard, in addition to its eponymous Frontdoor brand and Streem. The company's objective is to provide peace of mind and simplify home maintenance for its customers by managing unexpected repair costs and facilitating access to qualified service professionals.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Analogy 1: AAA for your home
Analogy 2: AppleCare for your entire house
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Home Service Plans: These plans cover the repair or replacement of principal components of major home systems and appliances.
- ProConnect: An on-demand home services business connecting homeowners with professionals for various home repairs.
- Streem: A technology platform that uses augmented reality, computer vision, and machine learning to help home service professionals diagnose breakdowns and complete repairs.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Frontdoor (FTDR) primarily serves individuals. Its major customers can be categorized as follows:
-
Homeowners purchasing comprehensive service plans: These are individuals who subscribe to annual contracts (e.g., under the American Home Shield, HSA, Landmark Home Warranty, and OneGuard brands) to cover the repair or replacement of major home systems and appliances. They seek peace of mind, budgeting predictability, and convenience in managing potential home repairs.
-
Homeowners utilizing on-demand home services: This category includes individuals who need immediate repairs or maintenance for specific issues and may use Frontdoor's ProConnect service to connect with home service professionals for ad-hoc services, often outside of a long-term plan.
-
Homebuyers and Sellers: Homeowners who purchase or receive home service plans (often as part of a real estate transaction) to provide coverage during the home buying or selling process. These plans offer protection against unforeseen system or appliance breakdowns for a specified period, benefiting both parties in a real estate deal.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
Bill Cobb, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer
Bill Cobb was appointed Chief Executive Officer of Frontdoor in June 2022 and also serves as Chairman of the Board. He joined Frontdoor's board of directors in October 2018 and previously served on the board of its former parent company, ServiceMaster Global Holdings, Inc., from April 2018 until Frontdoor's separation in October 2018. Before Frontdoor, he held significant leadership roles including president and chief executive officer of H&R Block, Inc. from 2011 to 2017. From 2000 to 2008, he held various leadership positions at eBay, Inc., including president of eBay Marketplaces North America. Earlier in his career (1987-2000), Cobb held marketing and executive roles at PepsiCo and Tricon Global Restaurants, such as senior vice president and chief marketing officer for Tricon International and Pizza Hut. He currently serves on the board of directors of Deluxe Corporation.
Jason Bailey, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Jason Bailey was appointed Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Frontdoor, effective November 10, 2025. He brings over 25 years of progressive leadership experience in finance and public accounting, with more than 15 years spent at Frontdoor and its former publicly traded parent, ServiceMaster. Prior to his current role, Bailey served as Vice President, Finance for Frontdoor. His professional background also includes 11 years in public accounting with Deloitte and Arthur Andersen.
Kathy Collins, Senior Vice President and Chief Revenue Officer
Kathy Collins was promoted to Senior Vice President and Chief Revenue Officer, effective January 1, 2024. In this role, she is responsible for overseeing and optimizing all revenue-generating activities for Frontdoor's brands, including product and service development, sales, marketing, and corporate partnerships. Previously, she served as the Senior Vice President and Chief Brand Officer for Frontdoor.
Evan Iverson, Senior Vice President and Chief Operations Officer
Evan Iverson was promoted to Senior Vice President and Chief Operations Officer, effective January 1, 2024. He is responsible for overseeing all day-to-day operational functions for the American Home Shield and Frontdoor brands, with a focus on enhancing contractor and member experiences. Iverson joined Frontdoor in January 2019 as Vice President of Operations and subsequently held positions as Vice President of Contractor Relations and Senior Vice President of Contractor Engagement.
Bala Ganesh, Senior Vice President and Chief Technology Officer
Dr. Bala Ganesh assumed the role of Senior Vice President and Chief Technology Officer for Frontdoor in July 2025. Prior to this, he served as a Frontdoor board director from July 2023 to June 2025. His previous experience includes serving as Chief Technology Officer at OnTrac Logistics and as a Partner at AKF Consulting LLC, a technology consulting firm. He also spent over 10 years at United Parcel Service (UPS) in various technology leadership positions, including Vice President of Engineering, Vice President of Advanced Technology, and Vice President of Advanced Analytics and Revenue Management.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Macroeconomic Conditions and Housing Market Sensitivity: Frontdoor's business is highly susceptible to broader economic conditions and trends in the housing market. Economic downturns, fluctuations in interest rates, and a cooling housing market can directly lead to reduced consumer spending on home service plans and a decrease in demand for new home warranties. This sensitivity can impact both customer acquisition and retention.
- Rising Costs and Contractor Dependence: The company's profitability is significantly affected by the cost of repairs and replacements of covered home systems and appliances, including the cost of labor and parts. Inflationary pressures and potential tariffs can increase these costs, thereby squeezing profit margins. Furthermore, Frontdoor relies on a vast network of independent contractors. Risks associated with this dependence include the availability and quality of these professionals, the ability to replace contractors in a timely manner if relationships are terminated, and potential increases in contractor costs, all of which can impact service delivery and customer satisfaction.
- Intense Competition: The home services and home warranty market is highly fragmented and competitive, with numerous established players and new entrants vying for market share. This intense competition can exert pressure on pricing, erode profit margins, and necessitate significant investment in marketing and customer acquisition strategies, making it challenging to maintain market position and grow customer numbers.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The proliferation of smart home technology, IoT devices, and predictive maintenance solutions.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Frontdoor, Inc. (FTDR) operates within significant addressable markets for its main products and services, primarily in the United States.
Home Service Plans
The addressable market for home service plans in the U.S. is substantial. The United States Home Warranty Market was valued at approximately $4.26 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach about $5.68 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 4.19% from 2026 to 2032. Another estimate places the U.S. home warranty market size at $4.6 billion in 2026. Frontdoor itself recognizes this as a $4 billion opportunity in the U.S. with low penetration, where it holds a dominant 46% market share.
ProConnect On-Demand Home Services
The broader U.S. home services industry, which includes on-demand services like Frontdoor's ProConnect, represents an estimated annual revenue of over $500 billion. Frontdoor has stated its aim to transform this market with its on-demand offerings. More specifically, the U.S. online on-demand home services market is projected to grow to $1.7 billion by 2028. Globally, the online on-demand home services market was valued at $5.15 billion in 2024 and is estimated to grow to $19.65 billion by 2033. North America leads this global market, accounting for approximately 45% of the total market share.
Streem (Augmented Reality, Computer Vision, and Machine Learning Platform)
Frontdoor's Streem platform leverages augmented reality, computer vision, and machine learning to assist home service professionals. The global augmented reality market is anticipated to reach $591.7 billion by 2033, with an estimated size of $29.6 billion in 2024. In North America, the demand for augmented reality reached $7.6 billion in 2023. A significant application for augmented reality, remote assistance and maintenance, which aligns with Streem's function, represented 29.09% of revenues in the augmented reality market in 2025. The global computer vision market size was valued at $21.7 billion in 2025 and is estimated to grow to $35.4 billion by 2034.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Growth in Member Count: After stabilizing its member base in 2025, Frontdoor anticipates a resumption of member growth in 2026, marking the first increase since 2020. This growth is projected to be fueled by approximately 5% first-year channel growth and enhanced momentum in both the direct-to-consumer (DTC) and real estate channels.
- Expansion of Non-Warranty Services: The company is strategically expanding its non-warranty revenue streams. The new HVAC program demonstrated significant success, growing 48% to $128 million in 2025 and is forecasted to reach approximately $165 million in 2026. Additionally, Frontdoor has broadened its partnership with Moen and initiated an appliance upgrade pilot program, contributing to a 66% rise in non-warranty and other revenue in 2025, with projections of $220 million to $240 million for 2026.
- Strategic Price Increases: Frontdoor has realized revenue growth through a combination of increased volume and strategic price adjustments. Management anticipates that ongoing price increases of 2-3% will be a foundational element supporting its revenue guidance for 2026.
- Synergies from the 2-10 Acquisition: The integration of the 2-10 acquisition is progressing ahead of schedule, with over $20 million in cost synergies realized in 2025, surpassing the initial $10 million target. Frontdoor plans to migrate the 2-10 platform in 2026 to unlock further revenue synergies and strengthen its relationships with builders and real estate partners.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Frontdoor authorized a new three-year share repurchase program of up to $400 million in September 2021, with the program expected to run through September 2024.
- The company repurchased $160 million of shares in 2024, acquiring approximately 4 million shares, and an additional $280 million in 2025, which reduced shares outstanding by 7%.
- Since 2021, Frontdoor has cumulatively repurchased approximately 17 million shares totaling $720 million, leading to a net reduction of about 17% in shares outstanding. Furthermore, nearly half of a separate $650 million authorization, initiated in late 2024, has been completed, with the remaining $329 million anticipated to be utilized by early 2027.
Outbound Investments
- Frontdoor acquired 2-10 Home Buyers Warranty (2-10 HBW) in an all-cash transaction valued at $585 million, with the agreement entered into in June 2024 and the acquisition completed in December 2024.
- The acquisition was partially funded through a new $1.47 billion credit facility.
- The acquisition of 2-10 HBW diversifies Frontdoor's business into new home structural warranties, adding members, revenue, and EBITDA, and generated over $20 million in cost synergies during 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures were $39 million in 2024 and $26 million in 2025, primarily directed towards recurring capital needs and technology projects.
- Frontdoor forecasts its capital expenditures for fiscal year 2026 to be in the range of $30 million to $35 million.
- The company operates with a "capital-light business model" but consistently invests in capability-expanding technology, focusing on its technology-enabled platform to enhance efficiency and service quality.
Peer Outperformance in Specialized Consumer Services
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education Services | 14 | -12.6% | 33.7% | 41.0% | CVSA 246% · GHC 109% · LRN 107% |
| Homebuilding | 17 | 3.7% | 29.7% | 29.7% | PHM 175% · TOL 159% · GRBK 150% |
| Automotive Retail | 17 | -2.1% | 18.9% | 11.3% | MUSA 209% · PAG 115% · ORLY 111% |
| Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines | 21 | 19.8% | 56.9% | 7.0% | RCL 250% · MAR 159% · HLT 147% |
| Home Improvement Retail | 5 | -4.3% | 3.3% | 5.3% | HD 6% · LOW 5% · FND -62% |
| Home Furnishings | 3 | 4.6% | 73.9% | -1.2% | SGI 50% · MHK -15% |
| Footwear | 9 | 75.0% | 79.9% | -15.7% | DECK 23% · SHOO -11% · CROX -16% |
| Restaurants | 36 | 2.4% | -4.6% | -24.2% | EAT 363% · CAKE 158% · TXRH 110% |
| Computer & Electronics Retail | 3 | 33.4% | 75.8% | -24.5% | BBY -3% · GME -53% |
| Specialized Consumer Services ← | 10 | -8.5% | 32.3% | -25.5% | FTDR 168% · HRB 146% · ADT 24% |
| Distributors | 4 | -5.4% | -16.9% | -26.0% | ARMK 96% · GPC 4% · POOL -56% |
| Leisure Products | 14 | -16.4% | -4.9% | -34.4% | GOLF 51% · HAS 50% · BC -14% |
| Leisure Facilities | 12 | 18.9% | 0.4% | -39.5% | OSW 160% · LTH 143% · PLNT -37% |
| Household Appliances | 18 | 34.2% | 20.6% | -40.3% | WHR -82% |
| Broadline Retail | 12 | -5.8% | 14.0% | -45.7% | EBAY 76% · AMZN 47% · OLLI 24% |
| Apparel Retail | 27 | -3.8% | 1.8% | -48.8% | ANF 223% · VSXY 110% · TJX 104% |
| Automotive Parts & Equipment | 37 | -13.2% | -28.2% | -48.8% | GTX 197% · PATK 64% · ALV 41% |
| Casinos & Gaming | 21 | -25.8% | -16.1% | -51.8% | RRR 22% · BYD 19% · LVS 3% |
| Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods | 29 | 15.8% | 17.8% | -53.7% | TPR 255% · RL 225% · KTB 59% |
| Other Specialty Retail | 25 | -0.1% | -11.4% | -57.7% | ULTA 65% · ASO 53% · ARHS 26% |
| Automobile Manufacturers | 8 | -59.8% | -44.0% | -70.5% | GM 54% · TSLA -12% · F -12% |
| Consumer Electronics | 11 | -31.9% | -29.8% | -80.5% | GRMN 122% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 41.22 |
| Mkt Cap | 6.8 |
| Rev LTM | 5,134 |
| Op Inc LTM | 239 |
| FCF LTM | 599 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 466 |
| CFO LTM | 694 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 579 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 11.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -10.8% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 52.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 15.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 6.8 |
| P/S | 0.9 |
| P/Op Inc | 10.9 |
| P/EBIT | 6.3 |
| P/E | 12.2 |
| P/CFO | 7.6 |
| Total Yield | 7.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 11.1% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 12.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -0.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 9.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 9.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 55.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 10.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 5.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 6.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -5.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -23.4% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | 2,093 | 1,843 | 1,780 | 1,662 | 1,602 |
| Total | 2,093 | 1,843 | 1,780 | 1,662 | 1,602 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | 255 | 235 | 171 | 71 |
| Total | 255 | 235 | 171 | 71 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | 2,142 | 2,107 | 1,089 | 1,082 |
| Total | 2,142 | 2,107 | 1,089 | 1,082 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $97.09 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 6.7 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/01/2018 | |
| Distance from 52W High | 0.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $80.90 | $70.21 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 20.0% | 38.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 31.5% | 44.4% |
| Downside Capture | 134.06 | 61.50 |
| Upside Capture | 155.61 | 114.10 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 27.0% | 24.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.20 | 0.64 | 0.73 | 0.46 | 0.78 | 0.81 |
| Up Beta | -2.59 | -0.58 | 0.50 | 0.32 | 1.21 | 0.86 |
| Down Beta | -1.31 | -1.58 | -0.70 | -0.46 | 0.42 | 0.59 |
| Up Capture | 214% | 197% | 175% | 110% | 83% | 104% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 15 | 23 | 34 | 68 | 132 | 398 |
| Down Capture | -91% | 103% | 65% | 60% | 73% | 92% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 20 | 30 | 58 | 119 | 351 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FTDR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTDR | 76.1% | 44.4% | 1.38 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | -1.9% | 19.8% | -0.22 | 35.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 9.5% | 13.6% | 0.40 | 20.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 1.6% | 28.7% | 0.05 | 10.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 38.4% | 21.2% | 1.42 | -24.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.3% | 14.2% | 0.51 | 35.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -26.9% | 43.6% | -0.60 | 4.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FTDR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTDR | 21.1% | 39.3% | 0.58 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 4.0% | 24.2% | 0.12 | 38.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.3% | 17.3% | 0.48 | 35.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.5% | 19.1% | 0.74 | 4.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.1% | 19.6% | 0.30 | -1.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.3% | 18.9% | -0.04 | 36.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.1% | 51.6% | 0.26 | 14.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FTDR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTDR | 8.7% | 40.8% | 0.39 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.8% | 22.3% | 0.52 | 37.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.0% | 18.0% | 0.70 | 35.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.9% | 16.5% | 0.59 | 2.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 18.1% | 0.33 | 5.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.9% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 34.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.1% | 66.3% | 1.00 | 9.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 11/7/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2026 | 3.4% | ||
| 8/6/2026 | 17.7% | 12.0% | 8.3% |
| 4/30/2026 | 13.3% | 9.1% | 2.4% |
| 2/26/2026 | 16.8% | 20.6% | -0.8% |
| 11/5/2025 | -15.9% | -21.5% | -19.3% |
| 8/5/2025 | -4.0% | -4.2% | 6.3% |
| 5/1/2025 | 13.2% | 28.9% | 33.8% |
| 2/27/2025 | -19.2% | -26.4% | -33.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 13 | 13 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 12.6% | 12.0% | 12.8% |
| Median Negative | -9.3% | -9.3% | -12.7% |
| Max Positive | 17.7% | 28.9% | 33.8% |
| Max Negative | -19.2% | -26.4% | -33.5% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2026 | 3.4% | ||
| 8/6/2026 | 17.7% | 12.0% | 8.3% |
| 4/30/2026 | 13.3% | 9.1% | 2.4% |
| 2/26/2026 | 16.8% | 20.6% | -0.8% |
| 11/5/2025 | -15.9% | -21.5% | -19.3% |
| 8/5/2025 | -4.0% | -4.2% | 6.3% |
| 5/1/2025 | 13.2% | 28.9% | 33.8% |
| 2/27/2025 | -19.2% | -26.4% | -33.5% |
| 11/4/2024 | 6.9% | 17.9% | 18.0% |
| 8/1/2024 | 12.8% | 11.1% | 20.5% |
| 5/2/2024 | 10.6% | 17.4% | 15.0% |
| 2/28/2024 | -5.8% | -8.7% | -2.2% |
| 11/1/2023 | 15.1% | 23.0% | 18.7% |
| 8/2/2023 | 5.7% | 1.9% | -5.2% |
| 5/4/2023 | 12.6% | 15.6% | 19.5% |
| 3/1/2023 | 5.3% | -1.1% | -2.9% |
| 11/3/2022 | 16.8% | 10.9% | 12.8% |
| 8/4/2022 | -4.4% | -2.3% | -12.7% |
| 5/5/2022 | -10.3% | -10.5% | -19.8% |
| 2/24/2022 | -8.4% | -10.3% | -13.6% |
| 10/28/2021 | -10.9% | -9.3% | -16.0% |
| 8/4/2021 | -11.6% | -10.3% | -11.8% |
| 5/6/2021 | 3.4% | 2.1% | 3.2% |
| 2/18/2021 | -0.8% | -7.1% | 0.3% |
| 11/4/2020 | 2.7% | 4.1% | 7.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 13 | 13 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 12.6% | 12.0% | 12.8% |
| Median Negative | -9.3% | -9.3% | -12.7% |
| Max Positive | 17.7% | 28.9% | 33.8% |
| Max Negative | -19.2% | -26.4% | -33.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/01/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/01/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/06/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/25/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/29/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/06/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/23/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/07/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/28/2020 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 11/6/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 11/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 Revenue | Reported | 453.00 Mil | 458.00 Mil | 463.00 Mil | -29.2% | Lower New | Guidance: 647.00 Mil for Q3 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 62.00 Mil | 67.00 Mil | 72.00 Mil | -66.8% | Lower New | Guidance: 202.00 Mil for Q3 2026 | |
| 2026 Realized Price Increase | Reported | 0.04 | ||||||
| 2026 Volume Increase | Reported | 0.02 | ||||||
| 2026 Home Warranties Growth | Reported | 1.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 2.21 Bil | 2.21 Bil | 2.21 Bil | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 2.20 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | 6.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Renewal Channel Revenue Growth | Reported | 5.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Non-Warranty and Other Revenue | Reported | 235.00 Mil | 237.50 Mil | 240.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Gross Profit Margin | Reported | 55.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Selling, General and Administrative Expenses | Reported | 685.00 Mil | 690.00 Mil | 695.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 590.00 Mil | 595.00 Mil | 600.00 Mil | 0.4% | Raised | Guidance: 592.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | Reported | 27.0% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 27.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Annual Effective Tax Rate | Reported | 24.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 30.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 30.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Revenue | Reported | 642.00 Mil | 647.00 Mil | 652.00 Mil | ||||
| Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 197.00 Mil | 202.00 Mil | 207.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 2.19 Bil | 2.20 Bil | 2.21 Bil | 1.1% | Raised | Guidance: 2.17 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 585.00 Mil | 592.50 Mil | 600.00 Mil | 3.5% | Raised | Guidance: 572.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | Reported | 27.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 30.00 Mil | -7.7% | Lowered | Guidance: 32.50 Mil for 2026 | |||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/26/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | Reported | 440.00 Mil | 442.50 Mil | 445.00 Mil | 5.4% | Higher New | Guidance: 420.00 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 95.00 Mil | 100.00 Mil | 105.00 Mil | 90.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 52.50 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 2.15 Bil | 2.17 Bil | 2.19 Bil | 4.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 2.08 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Gross Profit | Calculated | 1.16 Bil | 1.19 Bil | 1.21 Bil | Rev x Gross Margin | |||
| 2026 Gross Profit Margin | Reported | 54.0% | 54.5% | 55.0% | -1.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 55.5% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 565.00 Mil | 572.50 Mil | 580.00 Mil | 4.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 547.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 30.00 Mil | 32.50 Mil | 35.00 Mil | 8.3% | Higher New | Guidance: 30.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 10/5/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iverson, Evan | SVP & Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 8122026 | 85.50 | 18,190 | 1,555,245 | 18,297 | Form |
| 2 | Collins, Kathryn M | SVP & Chief Revenue Officer | Direct | Sell | 8122026 | 88.98 | 10,000 | 889,800 | 1,808,252 | Form |
| 3 | Fiarman, Jeffrey | SVP & Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 8122026 | 85.11 | 13,000 | 1,106,434 | 1,704,164 | Form |
| 4 | Fiarman, Jeffrey | SVP & Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 67.60 | 15,000 | 1,014,024 | 1,338,917 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iverson, Evan | SVP & Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 8122026 | 85.50 | 18,190 | 1,555,245 | 18,297 | Form |
| 2 | Collins, Kathryn M | SVP & Chief Revenue Officer | Direct | Sell | 8122026 | 88.98 | 10,000 | 889,800 | 1,808,252 | Form |
| 3 | Fiarman, Jeffrey | SVP & Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 8122026 | 85.11 | 13,000 | 1,106,434 | 1,704,164 | Form |
| 4 | Fiarman, Jeffrey | SVP & Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 67.60 | 15,000 | 1,014,024 | 1,338,917 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 7, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager |
|---|
FTDR Trade Sentinel
High Conviction
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is high as the core member base has returned to growth after a five-year effort, reaching 2.14 million. This stable foundation is now being leveraged to scale a new, fast-growing services business. Management is executing exceptionally, raising full-year targets and funding a new $1 billion share repurchase program.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Recurring Revenue / Subscription(Number of Members x Average Price) + Non-Warranty Services Revenue Margin expansion driven by dynamic pricing, operational efficiencies in service delivery (e.g., job routing to preferred contractors), and SG&A leverage as the business scales.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests yes; non-warranty revenue is growing 32% while the core member base has returned to positive growth.
- Non-warranty and other revenue grew 32% in Q3 2026.
- Total ending member count grew 1% in Q3, an inflection after five years.
- Customer retention rate improved to 79.7%, up for three straight quarters.
- Management raised its long-term adjusted EBITDA margin target to the mid-20% range.
- A new $1 billion share repurchase authorization begins November 2026.
PRIMARY RISK
Management warns the housing market is 'effectively frozen,' directly pressuring the real estate channel, a key source of new members for the high-margin renewal business.
- Management stated the 'housing market is effectively frozen' in Q3.
- Implied Q4 revenue guidance is $453 million to $463 million, a sharp sequential drop.
- Implied Q4 adjusted EBITDA guidance is $62 million to $72 million.
- Expectation for real estate channel member count was lowered to flat for 2026.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Total Home Warranty Member Count Growth | 1% year-over-year growth in Q3 2026, reaching 2.14 million members. - Turning around | Management highlighted that Q2 2026 was the first quarter of organic member growth in five years. The 1% growth in Q3 2026 sustains this positive turn, driven by strong performance in the direct-to-consumer (4% growth) and real estate (5% growth) acquisition channels. |
| Customer Retention Rate | 79.7% in Q3 2026. - Accelerating | Management attributes the steady improvement to a better member experience, increased app adoption, and operational enhancements to the renewal process. This consistent sequential and year-over-year improvement indicates strengthening customer loyalty. |
| Real Estate Channel Attach Rate | exceeded 5% (Q3 2026) | The company's penetration and market share within the U.S. existing home sales market, a key channel for new customer acquisition. |
New Growth Engine vs. Macro Headwinds
BULL VIEW
Bulls believe the 32% growth in non-warranty services and 1% member growth are structural improvements that can power through a cyclical housing slowdown, justifying the raised full-year outlook.
CORE TENSION
Can 32% growth in non-warranty services offset pressure from a 'frozen' housing market, which prompted a sharp Q4 guidance reduction?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bulls; the market rewarded the raised full-year outlook and new $1 billion buyback, looking past the Q4 slowdown.
BEAR VIEW
Bears focus on the sharp Q4 guidance drop, seeing it as a sign that the 'frozen' housing market will overwhelm new initiatives and cause a reversal in member growth.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
November 12, 2026 | New Buyback Program Begins Watch: A new three-year, $1 billion share repurchase authorization becomes effective. |
fourth quarter | Fourth Quarter Financial Outlook Watch: Company provides implied guidance for Q4 2026 revenue of $453 million to $463 million and adjusted EBITDA of $62 million to $72 million. |
full-year | Full Year Financial Outlook Watch: Company provides full-year 2026 guidance for revenue of $2.205 billion to $2.215 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $590 million to $600 million. |
1/20/2027 | Peer ORI Earnings Report Watch: Peer Old Republic International (ORI) is scheduled to report earnings. |
2/8/2027 | Peer ANGI Earnings Report Watch: Peer Angi (ANGI) is scheduled to report earnings. |
2/24/2027 | Quarterly Earnings Miss Watch: Results relative to the lowered Q4 guidance and any commentary on trends continuing into Q1 2027. |
2/24/2027 | Real Estate Channel Weakness Watch: Peer reports from FAF (2/9/27) and FNF (2/17/27) on home sale volumes and FTDR's reported member growth. |
No set date | Extreme Weather Impact Watch: Reports of severe winter weather in key southern and western states, and management commentary on claims frequency. |
in November | Share Repurchase Authorization Completion Watch: Company expects to complete its existing share repurchase authorization, which is nearly a year ahead of schedule. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-11-05 | Q3 Results and Mixed Guidance Details: The company reported Q3 earnings of $1.81 per share, beating estimates. However, it also issued 'Lower New' guidance for Q4 revenue and adjusted EBITDA. | +4.6% $92.86 -> $97.09 |
2026-10-08 | Positive Analyst Note Published Details: An analyst note rated the stock a buy with a DCF-derived fair value of $89.67, arguing that the company's margin expansion is expected to persist. | +2.6% $77.81 -> $79.80 |
2026-09-21 | Analyst Price Target Consensus Details: News reports indicated an average rating of 'Moderate Buy' from eight firms, with an average 12-month target price of $92.60. | -1.4% $78.29 -> $77.19 |
2026-08-06 | Strong Q2 Earnings Reported Details: The company reported Q2 revenue growth of 5% to $645 million and net income growth of 13% to $125 million. The two-day stock reaction was 19.0%. | +18.9% $76.38 -> $90.83 |
2026-06-29 | Board of Directors Expanded Details: The company expanded its board to nine members and elected Hilla Sferruzza as a director. Sferruzza will also serve on the Audit Committee. | +3.8% $74.73 -> $77.59 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: FTDR trades at roughly 35% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 14% for the S&P 500 (2.6x the market). A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
ANGI - Angi
Digital Home Services PlayAngi offers a different business model focused on a lead-generation marketplace rather than Frontdoor's managed service and warranty contracts. It has a higher gross margin profile.
FAF - First American Financial
Diversified Real Estate ServicesFAF provides broader exposure to the real estate transaction ecosystem, primarily through title insurance and settlement services, making it more of a direct play on housing volumes.
A market-leading, recurring-revenue warranty business successfully leveraging its large, captive member base to scale a new, capital-light growth engine in non-warranty home services.
Frontdoor has stabilized its core home warranty member base and returned to growth, underpinned by high retention rates and a strong direct-to-consumer channel. The primary growth catalyst is now the expansion of non-warranty services, like HVAC upgrades, which are cross-sold to its 2.1 million members with minimal acquisition cost. This strategy creates an incremental, high-margin-contribution revenue stream on top of its predictable, cash-generative core business.
Sustained 1%+ total member growth, continued high-double-digit growth in non-warranty revenue, and successful expansion into new service categories like appliances.
A decline in the customer retention rate below historical norms, failure to scale non-warranty services profitably, or the emergence of a new national-scale competitor that erodes pricing power.
Quarterly earnings volatility due to weather patterns (e.g., extreme heat or cold) that drive HVAC claims. Management has indicated this is a normal feature of the business.
Repricing Catalyst
Execution of the new $1 billion share repurchase authorization and continued margin expansion toward the recently raised long-term adjusted EBITDA target of the mid-20% range.
Single Segment
$2.2B TTM (100% of Total)What It Is
The company sells home warranties to homeowners through its American Home Shield, HSA, OneGuard, and Landmark brands. It sells new home builder warranties to builders via its 2-10 HBW brand. It also offers non-warranty services, like HVAC upgrades and Moen smart water device installations, primarily to its existing warranty customer base.
Who Pays & How
Homeowners pay for warranty plans to protect against unexpected, expensive home repairs and to gain convenient access to qualified contractors. Home builders pay for warranties to transfer long-term structural risk and manage homeowner service requests.
Competition
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Specialized Consumer Services Resources |
| Consumer Reports |
| Better Business Bureau (BBB) |
| TrendWatching |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.