Porch (PRCH)
Market Price (12/8/2025): $9.365 | Market Cap: $976.8 MilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Porch (PRCH)
Market Price (12/8/2025): $9.365Market Cap: $976.8 MilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Home & Property Management. Themes include Online Home Services Marketplaces, Homeowner Data Analytics, and Integrated Home Solutions. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.1% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 128% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.4% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 132% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Home & Property Management. Themes include Online Home Services Marketplaces, Homeowner Data Analytics, and Integrated Home Solutions. |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.1% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 128% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.4% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 132% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
PRCH Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
**1. <b>Q3 2025 Earnings Per Share Missed Analyst Estimates</b><br><br> Porch Group reported a loss of -$0.10 per share for the third quarter of 2025, which fell short of analyst expectations of -$0.03 per share, leading to a significant stock price decline.<br><br> **2. <b>Disappointing Full-Year Revenue Guidance</b><br><br> The company's full-year revenue guidance, set between $410 million and $420 million, came in below the analyst consensus of $434 million, despite Porch Group raising its gross profit and adjusted EBITDA targets.<br><br> **3. <b>Caution Regarding Q4 Retention and Growth</b><br><br> Porch Group expressed caution about its retention and growth prospects for the fourth quarter, suggesting potential difficulties in sustaining its current growth momentum.<br><br> **4. <b>Market Expectations for Written Premiums Were Not Met</b><br><br> Despite an increase in written premiums, the market had anticipated even higher figures, contributing to the negative investor reaction following the earnings release.<br><br> **5. <b>Shift in Market Focus Towards Profitability Over Growth</b><br><br> The market's valuation of Porch Group appeared to shift, with the price-to-earnings ratio dropping, indicating a stronger emphasis on profitability rather than solely on growth, which may have negatively impacted the stock.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PRCH Return | - | 9% | -88% | 64% | 60% | 96% | -32% |
| Peers Return | 13% | -2% | -7% | 5% | 55% | 897% | 1587% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PRCH Win Rate | 82% | 58% | 33% | 33% | 58% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 13% | 10% | 9% | 30% | 44% | 36% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PRCH Max Drawdown | - | -15% | -94% | -72% | -65% | -23% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -5% | -4% | -8% | -15% | -8% | -51% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ADSK, HIT, BMR, BTTC, CCC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/5/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PRCH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -98.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 4787.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -10.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 7 days | 148 days |
Compare to ADSK, HIT, BMR, BTTC, CCC
In The Past
Porch's stock fell -98.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/16/2021. A -98.0% loss requires a 4787.6% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Is Porch Stock Built to Withstand More Downside? | Return | |
| With PRCH Up 21% in a Month, Is It Time to Compare It Against ORCL? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | |
| Porch (PRCH) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | |
| Porch (PRCH) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | |
| Porch (PRCH) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | |
| Porch (PRCH) Net Income Comparison | Financials | |
| Porch (PRCH) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | |
| Porch (PRCH) Debt Comparison | Financials | |
| Porch (PRCH) Revenue Comparison | Financials | |
| Why Porch Stock Moved: PRCH Stock Has Gained 420% Since 2022 Fiscal End, Primarily Due To Favorable Change In Price To Sales Multiple (P/S) |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PRCH. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.3% | 8.3% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.7% | 14.7% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.9% | 6.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.0% | 9.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.3% | 8.3% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.7% | 14.7% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.9% | 6.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.0% | 9.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Porch
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 5.30 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.5 |
| Rev LTM | 442 |
| Op Inc LTM | 45 |
| FCF LTM | 140 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 216 |
| CFO LTM | 174 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 271 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 12.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 15.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 19.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 15.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.5 |
| P/S | 6.7 |
| P/EBIT | 37.2 |
| P/E | 51.0 |
| P/CFO | 30.3 |
| Total Yield | 1.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.9% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -34.5% |
| 6M Rtn | -17.2% |
| 12M Rtn | -0.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 242.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -5.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -41.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -31.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -11.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 137.0% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Insurance | 305 | 121 | 55 | 4 | |
| Vertical Software | 125 | 155 | 137 | 64 | |
| Divested businesses | 0 | 4 | |||
| Managed services revenue | 22 | ||||
| Referral network revenue | 49 | ||||
| Software subscription revenue | 6 | ||||
| Total | 430 | 276 | 192 | 72 | 78 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Insurance | 12 | -5 | 9 | 0 | |
| Change in fair value of contingent consideration | 6 | -7 | 2 | -2 | |
| Vertical Software | 4 | 15 | 21 | 13 | |
| Acquisition and other transaction costs | -1 | -2 | -5 | -0 | |
| Restructuring costs | -4 | -1 | |||
| Other gains and losses | -8 | ||||
| Stock-based compensation expense | -21 | -27 | -39 | -11 | |
| Depreciation and amortization | -24 | -28 | -16 | -7 | |
| Recovery of (loss on) reinsurance contract | -36 | ||||
| Impairment loss on property, equipment and software | -57 | -1 | -1 | -1 | |
| Eliminations | -61 | -59 | -54 | -30 | |
| Impairment loss on intangible assets and goodwill | -61 | 0 | |||
| Investment income and realized gains | -1 | -1 | 0 | ||
| Loss on reinsurance contract | 0 | ||||
| Divested businesses | 0 | -1 | |||
| SPAC transaction bonus | 0 | -3 | |||
| Total | -190 | -177 | -83 | -42 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2025 | -33.4% | -36.3% | |
| 8/5/2025 | 21.9% | 17.8% | 36.4% |
| 5/6/2025 | 68.0% | 65.6% | 47.2% |
| 2/25/2025 | 74.1% | 78.6% | 100.0% |
| 11/7/2024 | 55.4% | 33.5% | 121.0% |
| 8/6/2024 | -32.4% | -28.9% | -26.0% |
| 5/8/2024 | 6.3% | -10.3% | -40.1% |
| 2/12/2024 | 18.5% | 32.8% | 59.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 10 | 10 |
| # Negative | 7 | 9 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 19.5% | 33.1% | 43.8% |
| Median Negative | -19.4% | -10.3% | -25.4% |
| Max Positive | 74.1% | 89.9% | 204.7% |
| Max Negative | -34.3% | -36.3% | -40.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2252025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3152024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3162023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3162022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Reierson Amanda L | 9162025 | Sell | 17.67 | 50,000 | 883,325 | 2,674,266 | Form | |
| 1 | Neagle Matthew | Chief Operating Officer | 9112025 | Sell | 18.69 | 55,000 | 1,027,966 | 18,686,263 | Form |
| 2 | Lam Rachel | 8082025 | Sell | 15.21 | 25,000 | 380,328 | 2,707,795 | Form | |
| 3 | Tabak Shawn | CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER | 6132025 | Sell | 11.23 | 30,000 | 336,819 | 1,938,629 | Form |
| 4 | Neagle Matthew | Chief Operating Officer | 5292025 | Sell | 9.94 | 60,000 | 596,622 | 10,720,104 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |