Canadian National Railway (CNI)
Market Price (9/5/2026): $123.6 | Market Cap: $75.0 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Rail Transportation
Canadian National Railway (CNI)
Market Price (9/5/2026): $123.6Market Cap: $75.0 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Rail Transportation
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.3%, Dividend Yield is 2.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.0% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 38% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, CFO LTM is 7.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.5 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 8.5 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 22% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers, Automation & Robotics, Sustainable Infrastructure, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -27%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -55% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.7% Key risksCNI key risks include [1] significant operational disruptions tied to the 2026 expiration of key union contracts, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.3%, Dividend Yield is 2.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.0% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 38% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, CFO LTM is 7.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.5 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 8.5 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 22% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers, Automation & Robotics, Sustainable Infrastructure, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -27%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -55% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.7% |
| Key risksCNI key risks include [1] significant operational disruptions tied to the 2026 expiration of key union contracts, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Canadian National Railway (CNI) stock has gained about 5% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Positive Fiscal Q2 2026 Performance and Outlook.
Canadian National Railway (CNI) reported strong fiscal Q2 2026 results, beating analyst estimates with an adjusted diluted EPS of C$2.08, an 11% increase year-over-year. Revenue also rose 11% to C$4.75 billion, exceeding expectations. Furthermore, the company raised its full-year 2026 guidance for adjusted diluted EPS growth to mid-to-high single digits and tripled first-half share repurchases to C$1.32 billion, providing a positive impetus for the stock.
2. Margin Pressure from Elevated Fuel Costs.
Despite robust revenue and volume growth, CNI experienced margin pressure in fiscal Q2 2026, as its operating ratio, a key measure of efficiency, deteriorated by 80 basis points to 62.5%. This increase in operating expenses was primarily attributed to a significant approximately 60% jump in diesel prices, which offset gains from volume and pricing.
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Canadian National Railway (CNI) stock has gained about 5% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Positive Fiscal Q2 2026 Performance and Outlook.
Canadian National Railway (CNI) reported strong fiscal Q2 2026 results, beating analyst estimates with an adjusted diluted EPS of C$2.08, an 11% increase year-over-year. Revenue also rose 11% to C$4.75 billion, exceeding expectations. Furthermore, the company raised its full-year 2026 guidance for adjusted diluted EPS growth to mid-to-high single digits and tripled first-half share repurchases to C$1.32 billion, providing a positive impetus for the stock.
2. Margin Pressure from Elevated Fuel Costs.
Despite robust revenue and volume growth, CNI experienced margin pressure in fiscal Q2 2026, as its operating ratio, a key measure of efficiency, deteriorated by 80 basis points to 62.5%. This increase in operating expenses was primarily attributed to a significant approximately 60% jump in diesel prices, which offset gains from volume and pricing.
3. Broad Economic Uncertainty and Trade Tensions.
The railway sector faced macroeconomic headwinds from concerns regarding a potential economic slowdown, fluctuating freight demand, and escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and Canada. New U.S. tariffs implemented in August 2026 and Canada's announced counter-tariffs for September 2026 introduced uncertainty for cross-border supply chains, contributing to a cautious investment environment for a company heavily reliant on North American freight movement.
4. Full Valuation and Analyst Caution.
Following the release of its solid fiscal Q2 2026 results, CNI's stock was trading near its 52-week high of $131.55 around July 24, 2026. Despite the positive earnings and raised guidance, some analysts maintained "Hold" ratings, suggesting that the stock might have been considered fully valued at its elevated price, which likely limited significant further upward movement and led to a period of consolidation.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 4.6% change in CNI stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 2.8% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 117.91 | 123.37 | 4.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 17,280 | 17,761 | 2.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 27.2% | 26.9% | -1.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.3 | 15.6 | 2.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 611 | 606 | 0.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 4.6% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CNI | 4.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.8% | -4.5% |
| Sector (XLI) | 1.2% | 19.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 11.3% change in CNI stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 8.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 9042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 110.89 | 123.37 | 11.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 17,304 | 17,761 | 2.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 27.3% | 26.9% | -1.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.5 | 15.6 | 8.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 615 | 606 | 1.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 11.3% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CNI | 11.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.6% | 22.0% |
| Sector (XLI) | -0.8% | 42.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 30.7% change in CNI stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 20.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 9042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 94.40 | 123.37 | 30.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 17,143 | 17,761 | 3.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 26.6% | 26.9% | 1.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.0 | 15.6 | 20.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 627 | 606 | 3.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 30.7% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CNI | 30.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.4% | 21.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | 16.5% | 42.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 17.3% change in CNI stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 18.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312023 | 9042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 105.19 | 123.37 | 17.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 17,425 | 17,761 | 1.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 30.2% | 26.9% | -10.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.2 | 15.6 | 18.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 662 | 606 | 9.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 17.3% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CNI | 17.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 77.1% | 42.6% |
| Sector (XLI) | 68.7% | 52.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CNI Return | 14% | -1% | 8% | -18% | -0% | 26% | 26% |
| Peers Return | 20% | -11% | 10% | -4% | 12% | 26% | 58% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CNI Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 58% | 42% | 42% | 56% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 35% | 50% | 46% | 58% | 67% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 56% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CNI Max Drawdown | -14% | -21% | -15% | -23% | -15% | -12% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -16% | -28% | -18% | -18% | -19% | -12% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: UNP, CP, CSX, NSC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/4/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CNI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -11.4% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.9% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -11.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 27 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -20.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.9% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 94 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -21.5% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.4% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 55 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -32.2% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.5% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 322 days | 15 days |
In The Past
Canadian National Railway's stock fell -8.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 9.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | CNI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -20.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.9% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 94 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -21.5% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.4% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 55 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -32.2% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.5% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 322 days | 15 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -35.7% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.5% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 136 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Canadian National Railway's stock fell -8.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 9.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Canadian National Railway (CNI)
Canadian National Railway (CNI) is a prominent North American railway company specializing in rail and related transportation services. At its core, CNI operates an extensive 19,500-route mile network spanning both Canada and the United States, serving as a critical artery for the movement of goods across the continent.
The company's primary services revolve around the transportation of a wide array of commodities and products. This includes bulk goods like petroleum and chemicals, grain and fertilizers, coal, metals and minerals, and forest products, as well as finished goods such as automotive products and intermodal containers. Beyond rail transport, CNI also offers integrated logistics solutions including vessels and docks services, transloading and distribution, automotive logistics, and freight forwarding and transportation management.
CNI's diverse customer base encompasses key players across the economy, including exporters, importers, retailers, farmers, and manufacturers. By connecting these various industries to markets and ports throughout its extensive network, Canadian National Railway plays an integral role in facilitating trade and supporting the supply chains that underpin the North American economy.
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1. The FedEx or UPS of North American heavy freight, moving goods by rail.
2. Like a major shipping line such as Maersk, but for land-based rail freight across Canada and the U.S.
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- Rail Transportation: Moving a diverse portfolio of goods including petroleum, chemicals, grain, fertilizers, coal, metals, minerals, forest products, intermodal, and automotive products across its extensive rail network.
- Vessels and Docks Services: Providing marine terminal and dock facilities for the handling and transfer of goods.
- Transloading and Distribution Services: Facilitating the transfer of goods between different modes of transport and managing their distribution.
- Automotive Logistics: Offering specialized logistics solutions for the transportation and handling of automotive products.
- Freight Forwarding and Transportation Management: Coordinating the shipment of goods through various carriers and managing the overall transportation process for clients.
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Canadian National Railway (CNI) primarily sells its services to other companies, making it a business-to-business (B2B) enterprise. Due to the competitive nature of the freight transportation industry, railway companies like CNI typically do not publicly disclose the names of their individual major customers.
However, based on the types of goods transported and the industries served as described in its portfolio, CNI's major customers are companies operating in the following sectors:
- Resource and Heavy Industry Companies: This category includes businesses involved in the extraction, production, and processing of raw materials such as petroleum, chemicals, grain, fertilizers, coal, metals, minerals, and forest products. Examples would be oil and gas companies, mining corporations, chemical manufacturers, large-scale agricultural enterprises, and lumber companies.
- Manufacturing Companies: Particularly those in the automotive sector, but also other large-scale manufacturers that rely on rail for transporting raw materials, components, and finished goods across long distances.
- Retailers, Distributors, and Logistics Providers: Large retail chains, importers, and exporters, as well as third-party logistics (3PL) providers, utilize CNI's intermodal services to move consumer goods and other freight in shipping containers across its network.
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- Wabtec Corporation (WAB)
- Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)
- The Greenbrier Companies (GBX)
- Trinity Industries, Inc. (TRN)
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Tracy Robinson, President and Chief Executive Officer
Tracy Robinson was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of CN on February 28, 2022, becoming the first female CEO of a Canadian railway. Before joining CN, she served as Executive Vice-President of TC Energy, and President of Canadian Natural Gas Pipelines and Coastal GasLink. Her extensive experience in the railway industry includes 27 years at Canadian Pacific Railway, where she held executive roles in commercial, finance, and operating functions, such as General Manager of Transportation Services, Vice President and Treasurer, and Vice President of Marketing and Sales, where she was involved in pioneering crude oil transportation by rail. Ms. Robinson holds a Master of Business Administration from the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business.
Ghislain Houle, Executive Vice-President and Chief Financial Officer
Ghislain Houle was appointed Executive Vice-President and Chief Financial Officer in July 2016. He joined CN in September 1997 as Chief of Internal Audit and has since held various senior financial leadership positions, including Vice-President and Corporate Comptroller and Vice-President – Financial Planning. His current responsibilities encompass financial management, strategic planning, strategic acquisitions, and investor relations. Prior to his tenure at CN, Mr. Houle worked as a Senior Manager in tax and audit at a major accounting firm. He also serves as a Director of Gildan Activewear Inc. He holds a bachelor of commerce degree from Laval University and an MBA from McGill University.
Patrick Whitehead, Executive Vice-President and Chief Operating Officer
Patrick Whitehead was appointed Executive Vice-President and Chief Operating Officer in October 2023. He initially joined CN in 2021 as a General Manager in Chicago and previously served as Senior Vice-President, Network Operations. Mr. Whitehead brings over 30 years of railroad experience, with more than 25 years in management roles within Transportation and Mechanical operations. Before his time at CN, he was Vice-President, Transportation for Norfolk Southern Railway.
Janet Drysdale, Executive Vice-President and Chief Commercial Officer
Janet Drysdale was named Executive Vice-President and Chief Commercial Officer in October 2025. With nearly 30 years of experience at CN, she has held various executive positions across investor relations, finance, corporate and business development, sustainability, and stakeholder relations. She began her career at CN in sales and marketing roles. Ms. Drysdale holds a bachelor's degree from Queen's University and an MBA from McGill University.
Dominique Malenfant, Executive Vice-President and Chief Information and Technology Officer
Dominique Malenfant was appointed Executive Vice-President and Chief Information and Technology Officer in April 2025. He possesses over two decades of global leadership experience in areas such as digital strategy, cybersecurity, AI, technology innovation, supply chain optimization, product management, and software engineering. Before joining CN, Mr. Malenfant served as Senior Vice-President, Engineering and Chief Technology Officer at Wabtec, and held leadership positions at GE Transportation and Bombardier Transport Canada Participation, Inc.
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Here are the key risks to Canadian National Railway (CNI):
- Economic Volatility, Freight Demand, and Trade Policy: Canadian National Railway is significantly exposed to macroeconomic conditions, including recessions and trade policy shifts. A persistent drop in freight demand, particularly in key segments like metals, minerals, forest products, and intermodal shipments, directly impacts the company's carloads and revenue. Geopolitical landscapes, trade policy uncertainty, and tariffs on Canadian goods, especially from the U.S., can force customers to reduce shipments or alter supply chains, thereby hurting CNI's volumes. Such economic volatility has already led the company to revise its earnings guidance.
- Operational Disruptions and High Operating Expenses: The company faces ongoing challenges from operational disruptions, including supply chain issues, labor problems, and extreme weather events like wildfires, which can cause significant network interruptions. Furthermore, Canadian National Railway is grappling with persistently high operating expenses. These escalating costs, driven by increases in labor, fringe benefits, purchased services, and materials, strain profitability and operational efficiency. This contributes to financial pressure and impacts the company's financial stability.
- Cybersecurity Risks: As a critical national infrastructure (CNI) provider, Canadian National Railway is increasingly reliant on digital technologies, making it vulnerable to cyberattacks. The railway's operational technology (OT) and industrial control systems (ICS) can be targeted by sophisticated cyber threats, including state-sponsored actors and large-scale cybercrime. Vulnerabilities in supply chains, which are increasingly a focus for regulators, also pose a significant risk, as third-party systems or products can be exploited to compromise the railway's network or disrupt its services. Many of these operational systems may be older legacy systems, which can present known vulnerabilities and be challenging to update or patch, increasing exposure to malicious actors.
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Canadian National Railway (CNI) primarily operates in the North American rail and related transportation business, serving a broad range of industries across Canada and the United States. The addressable markets for its main products and services are substantial within the North American region.
Overall North American Transportation and Logistics Markets
- The broader North America Transportation Industry was valued at approximately USD 1.1 trillion.
- The North America logistics market generated a revenue of USD 936.9 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach US$ 1,408.8 billion by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% from 2025 to 2030. Another estimate for the North America logistics market size was USD 1,478.0 billion in 2024, with a projection to reach USD 1,768.0 billion by 2033 at a CAGR of 2.0% during 2025-2033.
- The North America freight and logistics market was valued at USD 1,641.37 billion in 2025 and is estimated to grow to USD 2,073.27 billion by 2031, with a CAGR of 3.97% during the forecast period (2026-2031).
North American Rail Freight Market
- The North America railroad market, which includes both freight and passenger rail, generated a revenue of USD 94,326.3 million in 2024 and is expected to reach US$ 129,684.6 million by 2030, with a CAGR of 5.3% from 2025 to 2030. Rail freight holds the largest share within this market.
- More specifically for rail freight, the North America rail freight transportation market size is forecast to increase by USD 37.53 billion at a CAGR of 7.3% between 2024 and 2029.
- The North America Railroads Market was valued at USD 82.0 billion in 2024, with projections to reach USD 136.0 billion by 2035 at a 4.71% CAGR.
- Canadian railways transported over 375.1 million tons of freight in 2023.
- Railways moved USD 184.5 billion of transborder freight between the U.S. and North American partners (Canada and Mexico) in 2025.
Intermodal Transportation Market (North America)
- The intermodal freight transportation market in North America generated a revenue of USD 15,278.8 million in 2023. It is expected to reach a projected revenue of US$ 31,588.0 million by 2030, with a CAGR of 10.9% from 2024 to 2030.
- North America was the largest revenue-generating market for intermodal freight transportation in 2023.
- North America dominated the global intermodal freight transportation market with a market share of 40.38% in 2025.
Addressable Markets for Main Products and Services by Commodity (North America)
While specific market values for rail transport of each commodity are not consistently reported in USD, the importance and volume of these goods in North American rail freight indicate significant addressable markets:
- Petroleum and Chemicals: This is a significant end-user segment for rail freight transportation in North America. Railroads are essential for moving large amounts of raw materials for fertilizers, such as anhydrous ammonia, potassium compounds, and urea, carrying millions of tons annually.
- Grain and Fertilizers (Agriculture Products): The agriculture products segment is a key end-user for rail freight. U.S. railroads move 1.6 million carloads of grain and 1.7 million carloads of food annually. Rail grain movements from Canada to the U.S. exceeded 6.9 million metric tonnes in 2024. U.S. grain rail carloads rose to approximately 1.11 million in 2025.
- Coal: Coal is a major commodity for rail freight in North America. In May 2025, coal maintained its lead among commodities in weekly U.S. rail traffic, and U.S. coal exports were projected to reach 95 million short tons in 2025.
- Metals and Minerals: This is an end-user segment for rail freight. Canadian railways saw large increases in loadings of iron ores in June 2022.
- Forest Products: Forest products are explicitly mentioned in Canadian National Railway's portfolio; however, a specific market size for rail transport of forest products in North America was not readily available in the search results.
- Automotive Products: The North America Automotive Logistics Market was valued at USD 51.93 billion in 2025 and is estimated to grow to USD 64.23 billion by 2031, at a CAGR of 3.61%. Transportation services accounted for 51.45% of this market in 2025. Rail transport plays a role in moving automotive and equipment.
- Transloading and Distribution, Automotive Logistics, and Freight Forwarding and Transportation Management Services: These fall under the broader North American logistics market, which is valued in the trillions of USD, as detailed above. The North America third-party logistics market alone was valued at US$ 315.07 billion in 2022 and is expected to reach US$ 497.56 billion by 2030.
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Canadian National Railway (CNI) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through a combination of targeted segment expansion, strategic pricing, enhanced operational efficiency, and focused market share initiatives.
The key drivers include:
- Targeted Growth in High-Performing Segments: CNI anticipates revenue growth from specific commodity segments that have shown strong performance. Notably, intermodal shipments increased by 10.5% in Q4 2025, contributing significantly to revenue per ton-mile. The petroleum and chemicals segment saw a 4% rise in revenue, while grain and fertilizers experienced a 6% increase in revenue, supported by record shipments. The automotive sector also contributed with a 4% revenue increase in Q4 2025.
- Strategic Pricing Power and Revenue Management: Despite a challenging macroeconomic environment and "flattish volume expectations" for 2026, CNI aims for "same-store pricing ahead of rail inflation" to contribute to its top-line growth. The company's consistent track record of increasing dividends for 30 consecutive years reflects confidence in its long-term financial health, which is often underpinned by pricing capability.
- Enhanced Operational Efficiency and Strategic Infrastructure Investments: CNI is focused on improving its operating ratio and overall efficiency, which, while not a direct revenue driver, optimizes profitability and allows for more competitive service offerings, indirectly supporting revenue. The company plans to invest approximately C$2.8 billion in its capital program for 2026, a decrease from 2025, with these investments geared towards improving network resilience, efficiency, and sustainability, including modernization of its locomotive fleet and capacity expansion.
- Market Share Gains Through Commercial Efforts: CNI actively pursues market share wins through "boots-on-the-ground sales" and focused commercial efforts, particularly in segments like chemicals and plastics. This strategy aims to grow the customer base and capture additional volumes within existing markets.
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Share Repurchases
- Canadian National Railway authorized a new share repurchase program on January 30, 2026, to buy back and cancel up to 24 million common shares (3.9% of outstanding shares) between February 4, 2026, and February 3, 2027.
- In 2025, the company repurchased approximately 15 million shares for roughly C$2 billion.
- Under a program announced in January 2024 (expiring February 3, 2026), Canadian National had repurchased 15,250,222 shares at a weighted-average price of C$134.44 as of January 22, 2026, returning C$2,050 million to shareholders.
Outbound Investments
- Canadian National Railway acquired the Iowa Northern Railway, a Class III shortline, in 2023.
- The acquisition of Iowa Northern Railway by CN was approved by the Surface Transportation Board (STB) on January 14, 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- For 2026, Canadian National plans approximately C$2.8 billion in capital spending, a reduction of C$500 million from 2025.
- In 2025, the company invested approximately C$3.4 billion in capital projects, with C$2.9 billion dedicated to maintenance and strategic infrastructure and over C$500 million allocated to upgrading and expanding its rolling stock.
- In 2024, Canadian National invested approximately C$3.5 billion CAD, which included C$1.7 billion for maintaining the safety and integrity of its network. Significant projects included a C$75 million siding extension in the Greater Chicago area and improvements in the Greater Vancouver area.
Peer Outperformance in Rail Transportation
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNI | Canadian National Railway | 0.7% | 15.6x | 30.7% | 18.6% | 7.6% | — |
| CSX | CSX | -1.1% | 28.4x | 53.2% | 72.2% | 65.2% | +58pp |
| UNP | Union Pacific | 0.9% | 23.4x | 32.6% | 43.4% | 50.8% | +43pp |
| NSC | Norfolk Southern | -0.3% | 28.1x | 19.8% | 74.6% | 46.1% | +38pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Construction & Engineering | 31 | 18.0% | 111.1% | 190.3% | CDNL 2702% · FIX 2049% · STRL 2005% |
| Marine Transportation | 5 | 72.8% | 70.4% | 164.7% | HOS 48321% · MATX 188% · KEX 165% |
| Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment | 13 | 14.7% | 63.4% | 115.4% | CAT 322% · ALSN 270% · WAB 223% |
| Aerospace & Defense | 55 | -1.3% | 57.5% | 70.3% | ATI 1074% · FTAI 885% · HWM 739% |
| Passenger Ground Transportation | 3 | -11.4% | 41.2% | 58.1% | UBER 88% · CAR 58% · LYFT -65% |
| Rail Transportation ← | 7 | 30.7% | 72.2% | 46.1% | FSTR 135% · CSX 65% · UNP 51% |
| Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components | 71 | 8.8% | 49.3% | 45.1% | CRS 1411% · PSIX 952% · EROC 609% |
| Cargo Ground Transportation | 16 | 35.6% | 5.9% | 35.4% | XPO 258% · R 251% · CVLG 209% |
| Trading Companies & Distributors | 19 | 0.7% | 39.0% | 32.8% | DXPE 533% · AIT 289% · WCC 214% |
| Diversified Support Services | 33 | 13.1% | 32.4% | 26.8% | LIME 4173% · TH 371% · WLFC 360% |
| Electrical Components & Equipment | 41 | 19.1% | 51.3% | 21.7% | POWL 2201% · BE 1055% · VRT 900% |
| Building Products | 33 | -9.7% | 7.2% | 19.4% | LMB 575% · GFF 398% · PPIH 300% |
| Research & Consulting Services | 13 | -9.7% | -20.5% | -6.3% | HURN 214% · GRNQ 137% · CRAI 89% |
| Agricultural & Farm Machinery | 17 | 14.0% | -1.4% | -7.2% | BLBD 213% · DE 90% · GENC 59% |
| Industrial Conglomerates | 17 | 10.4% | 15.4% | -8.5% | RCMT 676% · CSW 141% · CSL 80% |
| Environmental & Facilities Services | 29 | -8.8% | 16.4% | -12.0% | CECO 880% · ADUR 558% · NVRI 352% |
| Data Processing & Outsourced Services | 6 | -31.6% | -12.8% | -26.0% | EXLS 49% · BR 11% · G -23% |
| Passenger Airlines | 11 | 3.6% | -1.0% | -26.4% | LTM 2504% · UAL 141% · SKYW 117% |
| Office Services & Supplies | 9 | 12.7% | 23.7% | -30.4% | PBI 186% · TILE 157% · HNI 59% |
| Human Resource & Employment Services | 22 | 5.8% | -18.3% | -35.7% | BBSI 86% · ADP 49% · KFY 31% |
| Air Freight & Logistics | 12 | -6.0% | -22.3% | -39.1% | CHRW 85% · FDX 67% · EXPD 62% |
| Security & Alarm Services | 10 | -33.9% | 5.0% | -45.5% | CIX 137% · MG 96% · NL 53% |
| Airport Services | 3 | -66.4% | -76.9% | -57.6% | JOBY -34% · ASLE -58% · UP -100% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 123.37 |
| Mkt Cap | 81.2 |
| Rev LTM | 15,449 |
| Op Inc LTM | 5,679 |
| FCF LTM | 2,796 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,563 |
| CFO LTM | 5,500 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 5,214 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.9% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 4.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -1.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 36.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 37.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 36.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 35.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 19.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.7% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | 17,304 | 17,046 | 16,828 | 17,107 | 14,477 |
| Total | 17,304 | 17,046 | 16,828 | 17,107 | 14,477 |
| $ Mil | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canadian Rail | 1 | 1,016 | 379 | 731 |
| U.S. Rail | 0 | 452 | 37 | 77 |
| Total | 1 | 1,469 | 415 | 808 |
| $ Mil | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Rail | 8 | 8,236 | 402 | 445 |
| Canadian Rail | 7 | 8,198 | 7,667 | 6,613 |
| Total | 15 | 16,434 | 8,068 | 7,058 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $123.37 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 74.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 11/26/1996 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -5.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $125.71 | $110.24 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -1.9% | 11.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 19.4% | 21.9% |
| Downside Capture | 5.98 | 32.72 |
| Upside Capture | 18.45 | 56.94 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -6.4% | 22.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.29 | -0.33 | -0.15 | 0.32 | 0.35 | 0.58 |
| Up Beta | -0.09 | -0.24 | -0.75 | 0.21 | 0.17 | 0.66 |
| Down Beta | -1.63 | -1.26 | -0.15 | 0.18 | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| Up Capture | 42% | 4% | 18% | 43% | 44% | 29% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 24 | 38 | 72 | 137 | 389 |
| Down Capture | 125% | -36% | -9% | 36% | 35% | 87% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 18 | 26 | 55 | 111 | 358 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CNI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNI | 30.9% | 21.9% | 1.14 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 17.0% | 17.1% | 0.75 | 42.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 19.7% | 12.8% | 1.13 | 22.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.6% | 29.2% | 0.75 | 17.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 44.1% | 20.4% | 1.69 | -10.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 9.1% | 13.6% | 0.39 | 47.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -26.9% | 43.8% | -0.59 | 7.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CNI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNI | 4.4% | 22.5% | 0.14 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.4% | 17.6% | 0.54 | 59.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.2% | 0.57 | 53.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.1% | 18.8% | 0.82 | 15.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.7% | 19.5% | 0.43 | 15.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.7% | 18.9% | -0.01 | 50.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 10.6% | 52.6% | 0.38 | 20.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CNI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNI | 8.7% | 22.7% | 0.36 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.4% | 20.0% | 0.59 | 66.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 62.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.4% | 16.3% | 0.62 | 9.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.9% | 18.1% | 0.35 | 26.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 20.7% | 0.19 | 52.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 64.0% | 66.2% | 1.04 | 15.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/3/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/24/2026 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/29/2026 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/04/2026 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/22/2025 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/04/2025 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/22/2024 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/23/2024 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/23/2024 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2023 | 01/31/2024 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/24/2023 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/25/2023 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/24/2023 | 6-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/25/2022 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/26/2022 | 6-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/24/2026 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/29/2026 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/04/2026 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/22/2025 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/04/2025 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/22/2024 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/23/2024 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/23/2024 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2023 | 01/31/2024 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/24/2023 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/25/2023 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/24/2023 | 6-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/25/2022 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/26/2022 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/26/2022 | 6-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/19/2021 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/20/2021 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/26/2021 | 6-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/20/2020 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/21/2020 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2020 | 04/27/2020 | 6-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/22/2019 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2019 | 07/23/2019 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2019 | 04/29/2019 | 6-K |
| 09/30/2018 | 10/23/2018 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2018 | 07/24/2018 | 6-K |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Sep 5, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gates Foundation Trust | $5.3 Bil | 16.8% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| Troy Asset Management Ltd | $284.6 Mil | 8.5% | 30 | Hold | 13F |
| Scheer, Rowlett & Associates Investment Management Ltd. | $75.5 Mil | 5.4% | 33 | Hold | 13F |
| Rempart Asset Management Inc. | $18.9 Mil | 4.0% | 36 | TRIM -7.9% | 13F |
| Coleford Investment Management Ltd. | $15.0 Mil | 3.7% | 24 | Hold | 13F |
| Weybosset Research & Management LLC | $8.9 Mil | 2.6% | 33 | ADD +6.1% | 13F |
| Ycg, LLC | $26.4 Mil | 2.4% | 42 | TRIM -12.3% | 13F |
| TCI Fund Management LTD | $1.0 Bil | 2.2% | 10 | Hold | 13F |
| DKRT Investments Corp. | $6.0 Mil | 1.5% | 48 | TRIM -50.0% | 13F |
| Rothschild & Co Wealth Management UK Ltd | $7.9 Mil | 0.1% | 25 | ADD +13.4% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean Energy Transition LLP | $47.3 Mil | 3.9% | 12 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Vantage Wealth | $17.6 Mil | 3.8% | 30 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| DKRT Investments Corp. | $6.0 Mil | 1.5% | 48 | TRIM -50.0% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Ycg, LLC | $26.4 Mil | 2.4% | 42 | TRIM -12.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Rempart Asset Management Inc. | $18.9 Mil | 4.0% | 36 | TRIM -7.9% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gates Foundation Trust | $5.3 Bil | 16.8% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| TCI Fund Management LTD | $1.0 Bil | 2.2% | 10 | Hold | 13F |
| Troy Asset Management Ltd | $284.6 Mil | 8.5% | 30 | Hold | 13F |
| Scheer, Rowlett & Associates Investment Management Ltd. | $75.5 Mil | 5.4% | 33 | Hold | 13F |
| Ycg, LLC | $26.4 Mil | 2.4% | 42 | TRIM -12.3% | 13F |
| Rempart Asset Management Inc. | $18.9 Mil | 4.0% | 36 | TRIM -7.9% | 13F |
| Coleford Investment Management Ltd. | $15.0 Mil | 3.7% | 24 | Hold | 13F |
| Weybosset Research & Management LLC | $8.9 Mil | 2.6% | 33 | ADD +6.1% | 13F |
| Rothschild & Co Wealth Management UK Ltd | $7.9 Mil | 0.1% | 25 | ADD +13.4% | 13F |
| DKRT Investments Corp. | $6.0 Mil | 1.5% | 48 | TRIM -50.0% | 13F |
Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
| IndustryWeek |
| Manufacturing.net |
| Aviation Week |
| Rail Transportation Resources |
| Railway Gazette International |
| Progressive Railroading |
| Railway Age |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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