Tearsheet

Canadian National Railway (CNI)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $98.45 | Market Cap: $61.2 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Rail Transportation

Canadian National Railway (CNI)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $98.45
Market Cap: $61.2 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Rail Transportation

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 3.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.5%, FCF Yield is 5.9%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -60%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -89%
 
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 38%
  
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, CFO LTM is 6.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.4 Bil
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 23%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers, Automation & Robotics, Sustainable Infrastructure, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 3.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.5%, FCF Yield is 5.9%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 38%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, CFO LTM is 6.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.4 Bil
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 23%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers, Automation & Robotics, Sustainable Infrastructure, Show more.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -60%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -89%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CNI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The Canadian National Railway (CNI) stock experienced a 2.6% increase on December 4, 2025, according to MarketBeat.com. This movement occurred within a broader period where the company released its Q3 2025 financial results and received updated analyst ratings. Here are five key points that likely contributed to the stock's movement:

1. Strong Q3 2025 Financial Performance: CNI reported a Q3 2025 diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.83, a 6% increase year-over-year from $1.72. Revenues rose by 1% to C$4.17 billion, exceeding analyst consensus estimates. The operating ratio improved to 61.4%, a 170 basis point enhancement, signaling operational efficiency gains. Free cash flow also increased by 14% year-to-date.

2. Reduced Capital Expenditure for 2026: CNI announced plans to reduce its 2026 capital expenditure to C$2.8 billion, a decrease of C$600 million from the previous year. This reduction is attributed to the completion of capacity expansion projects and fleet upgrades, and is expected to result in improved cash flow.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CNI Return24%14%-1%8%-18%-3%19%
Peers Return17%14%-15%33%1%8%66%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CNI Win Rate75%50%42%58%42%40% 
Peers Win Rate67%50%37%55%48%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CNI Max Drawdown-25%-8%-12%-11%-18%-8% 
Peers Max Drawdown-39%-7%-25%-10%-13%-15% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CP, FSTR, UNP, NSC, CSX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCNIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-23.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven30.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-29.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven41.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven121 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-22.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven28.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven109 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-48.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven94.5%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven372 days1480 days

Compare to CP, FSTR, UNP, NSC, CSX


In The Past

Canadian National Railway's stock fell -23.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/30/2022. A -23.5% loss requires a 30.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Canadian National Railway (CNI)

Better Bets than Canadian National Railway (CNI)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CNI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Canadian National Railway

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CNICPFSTRUNPNSCCSXMedian
NameCanadian.Canadian.L.B. Fos.Union Pa.Norfolk .CSX  
Mkt Price98.6373.9227.31235.23294.0535.9586.28
Mkt Cap61.367.30.3139.466.067.066.5
Rev LTM17,19815,02950824,54612,23014,12314,576
Op Inc LTM6,4825,556179,9704,7554,8285,192
FCF LTM3,4442,393286,0132,0991,5522,246
FCF 3Y Avg3,5582,222195,4341,4932,5242,373
CFO LTM6,8175,489389,7274,2494,6155,052
CFO 3Y Avg6,9194,970279,0273,7765,0865,028

Growth & Margins

CNICPFSTRUNPNSCCSXMedian
NameCanadian.Canadian.L.B. Fos.Union Pa.Norfolk .CSX  
Rev Chg LTM0.2%4.0%-5.5%1.1%0.5%-3.8%0.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg1.8%22.2%2.8%0.2%-0.3%-1.0%1.0%
Rev Chg Q1.3%3.2%0.6%2.5%1.7%-0.9%1.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.3%0.8%0.2%0.6%0.4%-0.2%0.4%
Op Mgn LTM37.7%37.0%3.4%40.6%38.9%34.2%37.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg38.4%35.7%2.7%39.3%38.6%36.5%37.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.4%0.6%0.2%0.3%-3.2%-0.7%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM39.6%36.5%7.4%39.6%34.7%32.7%35.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg40.5%36.9%5.2%37.1%30.9%35.0%36.0%
FCF/Rev LTM20.0%15.9%5.5%24.5%17.2%11.0%16.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg20.8%16.6%3.5%22.3%12.2%17.3%17.0%

Valuation

CNICPFSTRUNPNSCCSXMedian
NameCanadian.Canadian.L.B. Fos.Union Pa.Norfolk .CSX  
Mkt Cap61.367.30.3139.466.067.066.5
P/S3.44.50.55.75.54.74.6
P/EBIT8.410.817.413.514.614.313.9
P/E12.715.957.119.922.822.821.3
P/CFO8.612.47.414.415.914.313.3
Total Yield11.6%7.4%1.8%7.3%4.4%5.5%6.4%
Dividend Yield3.7%1.1%0.0%2.3%0.0%1.1%1.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg5.3%3.1%7.8%3.9%2.6%3.9%3.9%
D/E0.40.40.30.20.30.30.3
Net D/E0.40.30.30.20.20.30.3

Returns

CNICPFSTRUNPNSCCSXMedian
NameCanadian.Canadian.L.B. Fos.Union Pa.Norfolk .CSX  
1M Rtn3.1%4.6%1.4%7.5%4.2%0.7%3.7%
3M Rtn2.8%-3.4%3.8%6.1%6.2%11.8%4.9%
6M Rtn-5.6%-9.5%44.0%7.2%20.0%13.5%10.3%
12M Rtn-7.2%-1.4%-7.3%1.6%11.2%1.5%0.0%
3Y Rtn-17.5%-8.1%193.0%17.6%24.0%17.2%17.4%
1M Excs Rtn3.2%4.6%1.4%7.5%4.2%0.7%3.7%
3M Excs Rtn-2.7%-8.8%-4.9%0.1%0.3%5.1%-1.3%
6M Excs Rtn-20.3%-24.2%29.3%-7.6%5.3%-1.3%-4.4%
12M Excs Rtn-22.8%-16.3%-18.5%-15.1%-4.7%-13.6%-15.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-89.1%-78.7%103.6%-51.7%-46.1%-54.0%-52.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment16,82817,10714,47713,81914,917
Total16,82817,10714,47713,81914,917


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3,812,034
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202539.1%
Average Daily Volume1,304,780
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.92
Basic Shares Quantity621,900,000
Short % of Basic Shares0.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
9302025103120256-K 9/30/2025
630202572220256-K 6/30/2025
331202550120256-K 3/31/2025
12312024204202540-F 12/31/2024
9302024102220246-K 9/30/2024
630202472320246-K 6/30/2024
331202442320246-K 3/31/2024
12312023131202440-F 12/31/2023
9302023102420236-K 9/30/2023
630202372520236-K 6/30/2023
331202342420236-K 3/31/2023
9302022102520226-K 9/30/2022
630202272620226-K 6/30/2022
331202242620226-K 3/31/2022
9302021101920216-K 9/30/2021
630202172020216-K 6/30/2021