Canadian National Railway (CNI)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $95.48 | Market Cap: $59.4 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Rail Transportation
Canadian National Railway (CNI)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $95.48Market Cap: $59.4 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Rail Transportation
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 3.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.4%, FCF Yield is 5.8% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -62%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -86% | |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 38% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, CFO LTM is 6.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.4 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 22% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers, Automation & Robotics, Sustainable Infrastructure, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 3.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.4%, FCF Yield is 5.8% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 38% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, CFO LTM is 6.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.4 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 22% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers, Automation & Robotics, Sustainable Infrastructure, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -62%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -86% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
CNI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the approximate 3.1% stock movement for Canadian National Railway (CNI) from July 31, 2025, to November 18, 2025:
1. Canadian National Railway reported strong financial results for the third quarter of 2025, with profits rising to $1.14 billion, an increase from $1.09 billion in the previous year. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) reached $1.83, surpassing analysts' expectations of $1.77 per share.
2. The company demonstrated enhanced operational efficiency by improving its operating ratio by 170 basis points to 61.4% in Q3 2025, compared to 63.1% in the prior year. This indicates better cost management relative to revenue.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CNI Return | 24% | 14% | -1% | 8% | -18% | -4% | 18% |
| Peers Return | 12% | 9% | -12% | 24% | 57% | -10% | 88% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 107% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CNI Win Rate | 75% | 50% | 42% | 58% | 42% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 40% | 32% | 55% | 48% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CNI Max Drawdown | -25% | -8% | -12% | -11% | -18% | -8% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -31% | -7% | -19% | -21% | -11% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CP, FSTR, SWVL, UNP, CSX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CNI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -23.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -29.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 121 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -22.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 109 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -48.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 94.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 372 days | 1480 days |
Compare to CP, FSTR, SWVL, UNP, CSX
In The Past
Canadian National Railway's stock fell -23.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/30/2022. A -23.5% loss requires a 30.7% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| How Low Can Canadian National Railway Stock Really Go? | Return | |
| Fundamental Metrics: ... |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CNI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.3% | -10.3% | -14.1% |
| 10312025 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -10.2% | -10.2% | -17.5% |
| 10312025 | PLPC | Preformed Line Products | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -3.4% | -3.4% | -4.8% |
| 10172025 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -7.1% | -7.1% | -10.5% |
| 10102025 | CARR | Carrier Global | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.2% | -4.2% | -4.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.3% | -10.3% | -14.1% |
| 10312025 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -10.2% | -10.2% | -17.5% |
| 10312025 | PLPC | Preformed Line Products | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -3.4% | -3.4% | -4.8% |
| 10172025 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -7.1% | -7.1% | -10.5% |
| 10102025 | CARR | Carrier Global | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.2% | -4.2% | -4.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Canadian National Railway
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 52.17 |
| Mkt Cap | 63.4 |
| Rev LTM | 14,576 |
| Op Inc LTM | 5,192 |
| FCF LTM | 2,393 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,524 |
| CFO LTM | 5,489 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 5,086 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 0.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 1.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 35.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 36.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 36.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 36.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 15.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 63.4 |
| P/S | 4.3 |
| P/EBIT | 12.7 |
| P/E | 18.6 |
| P/CFO | 11.7 |
| Total Yield | 7.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.9% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -4.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -1.6% |
| 6M Rtn | -6.2% |
| 12M Rtn | -4.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 2.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -7.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -18.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -17.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -66.8% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10312025 | 6-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7222025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2042025 | 40-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10222024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7232024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4232024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 1312024 | 40-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10242023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7252023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4242023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 9302022 | 10252022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7262022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4262022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 9302021 | 10192021 | 6-K 9/30/2021 |
| 6302021 | 7202021 | 6-K 6/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |