Tearsheet

Canadian National Railway (CNI)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $97.43 | Market Cap: $60.6 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Rail Transportation

Canadian National Railway (CNI)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $97.43
Market Cap: $60.6 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Rail Transportation

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 3.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.5%, FCF Yield is 5.9%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -58%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -87%
Key risks
CNI key risks include [1] significant operational disruptions tied to the 2026 expiration of key union contracts, Show more.
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 38%
  
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, CFO LTM is 6.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.4 Bil
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 23%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers, Automation & Robotics, Sustainable Infrastructure, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 3.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.5%, FCF Yield is 5.9%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 38%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, CFO LTM is 6.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.4 Bil
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 23%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers, Automation & Robotics, Sustainable Infrastructure, Show more.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -58%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -87%
6 Key risks
CNI key risks include [1] significant operational disruptions tied to the 2026 expiration of key union contracts, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CNI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining a 1.9% stock movement for Canadian National Railway (CNI) in the recent period: **1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results.** Canadian National Railway reported robust third-quarter 2025 earnings, with adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) increasing by 6% and operating income rising by 6%. This performance was achieved on a 1% increase in revenues, highlighting effective cost control and margin expansion.

**2. Significant Improvement in Operating Efficiency.** The company demonstrated enhanced operational efficiency, with its operating ratio improving by 170 basis points to 61.4% in Q3 2025 compared to the previous year. Additionally, training engine labor productivity improved by 20% year-over-year.

**3. Record-Breaking Grain Movement in October and November 2025.** Canadian National Railway set new all-time monthly records for grain movement in both October and November 2025. In October, the company moved over 3.4 million metric tonnes of grain from Western Canada, and in November, it transported over 3.28 million metric tonnes, marking its third consecutive record month for grain movement.

**4. Accelerated Share Buyback Program.** CNI actively returned value to shareholders by accelerating its share buyback program, repurchasing approximately 8 million shares for over $1 billion. This move often signals management's confidence in the company's valuation and future prospects.

**5. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Price Targets.** Analysts generally hold a "Buy" consensus rating for CNI, with an average price target of $117.36. This forecast suggests a potential increase of 21.50% in the stock price over the next year, indicating strong confidence from the analyst community in the company's future performance.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CNI Return24%14%-1%8%-18%-2%21%
Peers Return27%20%-11%10%-4%13%62%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CNI Win Rate75%50%42%58%42%42% 
Peers Win Rate69%50%35%50%46%60% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CNI Max Drawdown-25%-8%-12%-11%-18%-9% 
Peers Max Drawdown-34%-6%-23%-12%-9%-11% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: UNP, CP, CSX, NSC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCNIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-23.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven30.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-29.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven41.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven121 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-22.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven28.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven109 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-48.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven94.5%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven372 days1480 days

Compare to CP, FSTR, UNP, NSC, CSX


In The Past

Canadian National Railway's stock fell -23.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/30/2022. A -23.5% loss requires a 30.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Canadian National Railway (CNI)

Better Bets than Canadian National Railway (CNI)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CNI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
19.8%19.8%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.2%4.2%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.5%1.5%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
19.8%19.8%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.2%4.2%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.5%1.5%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Canadian National Railway

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CNIUNPCPCSXNSCMedian
NameCanadian.Union Pa.Canadian.CSX Norfolk . 
Mkt Price97.37236.7473.5236.50294.4397.37
Mkt Cap60.6140.266.968.066.166.9
Rev LTM17,19824,54615,02914,12312,23015,029
Op Inc LTM6,4829,9705,5564,8284,7555,556
FCF LTM3,4446,0132,3931,5522,0992,393
FCF 3Y Avg3,5585,4342,2222,5241,4932,524
CFO LTM6,8179,7275,4894,6154,2495,489
CFO 3Y Avg6,9199,0274,9705,0863,7765,086

Growth & Margins

CNIUNPCPCSXNSCMedian
NameCanadian.Union Pa.Canadian.CSX Norfolk . 
Rev Chg LTM0.2%1.1%4.0%-3.8%0.5%0.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg1.8%0.2%22.2%-1.0%-0.3%0.2%
Rev Chg Q1.3%2.5%3.2%-0.9%1.7%1.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.3%0.6%0.8%-0.2%0.4%0.4%
Op Mgn LTM37.7%40.6%37.0%34.2%38.9%37.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg38.4%39.3%35.7%36.5%38.6%38.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.4%0.3%0.6%-0.7%-3.2%0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM39.6%39.6%36.5%32.7%34.7%36.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg40.5%37.1%36.9%35.0%30.9%36.9%
FCF/Rev LTM20.0%24.5%15.9%11.0%17.2%17.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg20.8%22.3%16.6%17.3%12.2%17.3%

Valuation

CNIUNPCPCSXNSCMedian
NameCanadian.Union Pa.Canadian.CSX Norfolk . 
Mkt Cap60.6140.266.968.066.166.9
P/S3.45.74.54.75.54.7
P/EBIT8.413.510.814.314.613.5
P/E12.719.915.922.822.819.9
P/CFO8.614.412.414.315.914.3
Total Yield11.6%7.3%7.4%5.5%4.4%7.3%
Dividend Yield3.7%2.3%1.1%1.1%0.0%1.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg5.3%3.9%3.1%3.9%2.6%3.9%
D/E0.40.20.40.30.30.3
Net D/E0.40.20.30.30.20.3

Returns

CNIUNPCPCSXNSCMedian
NameCanadian.Union Pa.Canadian.CSX Norfolk . 
1M Rtn2.6%7.7%4.5%7.7%4.6%4.6%
3M Rtn3.5%9.6%-2.1%11.8%6.4%6.4%
6M Rtn-3.1%7.9%-7.9%14.1%17.5%7.9%
12M Rtn-3.0%5.4%0.8%12.6%24.0%5.4%
3Y Rtn-14.4%20.8%-0.1%20.5%25.9%20.5%
1M Excs Rtn1.9%7.0%3.8%7.0%3.9%3.9%
3M Excs Rtn3.5%6.7%-3.9%8.2%3.3%3.5%
6M Excs Rtn-15.5%-4.5%-20.3%1.7%5.2%-4.5%
12M Excs Rtn-14.9%-7.9%-11.4%0.5%11.1%-7.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-86.5%-50.0%-73.6%-50.1%-43.8%-50.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment16,82817,10714,47713,81914,917
Total16,82817,10714,47713,81914,917


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3,922,582
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520256.3%
Average Daily Volume1,405,077
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.79
Basic Shares Quantity621,900,000
Short % of Basic Shares0.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
9302025103120256-K 9/30/2025
630202572220256-K 6/30/2025
331202550120256-K 3/31/2025
12312024204202540-F 12/31/2024
9302024102220246-K 9/30/2024
630202472320246-K 6/30/2024
331202442320246-K 3/31/2024
12312023131202440-F 12/31/2023
9302023102420236-K 9/30/2023
630202372520236-K 6/30/2023
331202342420236-K 3/31/2023
9302022102520226-K 9/30/2022
630202272620226-K 6/30/2022
331202242620226-K 3/31/2022
9302021101920216-K 9/30/2021
630202172020216-K 6/30/2021