Amazon.com (AMZN)
Market Price (11/1/2026): $240.85 | Market Cap: $2.6 TrilInvestor Relations Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Broadline Retail
Amazon.com (AMZN)
Market Price (11/1/2026): $240.85Market Cap: $2.6 TrilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Broadline Retail
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.2% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, CFO LTM is 168 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, Cloud Computing, E-commerce & Digital Retail, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -5.4% | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.9% Key risksAMZN key risks include [1] escalating global regulatory scrutiny targeting its marketplace and labor practices, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.2% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, CFO LTM is 168 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, Cloud Computing, E-commerce & Digital Retail, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -5.4% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.9% |
| Key risksAMZN key risks include [1] escalating global regulatory scrutiny targeting its marketplace and labor practices, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Updated on 10/31/2026
Amazon.com (AMZN) stock has lost about 10% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Amazon's fiscal Q3 2026 earnings missed analyst expectations for both diluted earnings per share (EPS) and revenue. The company reported diluted EPS of $1.89, falling short of the consensus estimate of $1.97 by $0.08. Net sales reached $201.94 billion, missing analysts' revenue forecast of approximately $202.22 billion by about 0.1%. Although operating income for the quarter increased significantly to $28.1 billion, a 61% rise year-over-year, and Amazon Web Services (AWS) revenue grew 39% to $46.0 billion, the top and bottom-line misses contributed to a stock decline of around 6-7% in after-hours and pre-market trading following the October 29, 2026, announcement.
2. Substantial capital expenditures (capex) and a swing to negative free cash flow concerned investors. Amazon's capital expenditures for fiscal Q3 2026 reached $77.3 billion, significantly exceeding the consensus estimate of $58.7 billion. The company reiterated its full-year 2026 cash capital expenditure guidance of approximately $220 billion, primarily allocated to AWS and AI infrastructure investments. This aggressive spending led to trailing twelve-month free cash flow becoming negative $42.4 billion, a stark contrast to the positive $14.8 billion in the prior 12-month period, raising investor scrutiny on capital efficiency.
Show more
Amazon.com (AMZN) stock has lost about 10% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Amazon's fiscal Q3 2026 earnings missed analyst expectations for both diluted earnings per share (EPS) and revenue. The company reported diluted EPS of $1.89, falling short of the consensus estimate of $1.97 by $0.08. Net sales reached $201.94 billion, missing analysts' revenue forecast of approximately $202.22 billion by about 0.1%. Although operating income for the quarter increased significantly to $28.1 billion, a 61% rise year-over-year, and Amazon Web Services (AWS) revenue grew 39% to $46.0 billion, the top and bottom-line misses contributed to a stock decline of around 6-7% in after-hours and pre-market trading following the October 29, 2026, announcement.
2. Substantial capital expenditures (capex) and a swing to negative free cash flow concerned investors. Amazon's capital expenditures for fiscal Q3 2026 reached $77.3 billion, significantly exceeding the consensus estimate of $58.7 billion. The company reiterated its full-year 2026 cash capital expenditure guidance of approximately $220 billion, primarily allocated to AWS and AI infrastructure investments. This aggressive spending led to trailing twelve-month free cash flow becoming negative $42.4 billion, a stark contrast to the positive $14.8 billion in the prior 12-month period, raising investor scrutiny on capital efficiency.
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Updated on 10/31/2026
Amazon.com (AMZN) stock has lost about 10% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Amazon's fiscal Q3 2026 earnings missed analyst expectations for both diluted earnings per share (EPS) and revenue. The company reported diluted EPS of $1.89, falling short of the consensus estimate of $1.97 by $0.08. Net sales reached $201.94 billion, missing analysts' revenue forecast of approximately $202.22 billion by about 0.1%. Although operating income for the quarter increased significantly to $28.1 billion, a 61% rise year-over-year, and Amazon Web Services (AWS) revenue grew 39% to $46.0 billion, the top and bottom-line misses contributed to a stock decline of around 6-7% in after-hours and pre-market trading following the October 29, 2026, announcement.
2. Substantial capital expenditures (capex) and a swing to negative free cash flow concerned investors. Amazon's capital expenditures for fiscal Q3 2026 reached $77.3 billion, significantly exceeding the consensus estimate of $58.7 billion. The company reiterated its full-year 2026 cash capital expenditure guidance of approximately $220 billion, primarily allocated to AWS and AI infrastructure investments. This aggressive spending led to trailing twelve-month free cash flow becoming negative $42.4 billion, a stark contrast to the positive $14.8 billion in the prior 12-month period, raising investor scrutiny on capital efficiency.
3. Softer-than-expected revenue guidance for fiscal Q4 2026 contributed to investor apprehension. Amazon provided guidance for fiscal Q4 2026 net sales to be between $240.0 billion and $247.0 billion. The midpoint of this guidance, $243.5 billion, fell below the analyst consensus estimate of $244.5 billion. A conservative outlook for the crucial holiday shopping quarter likely amplified concerns about future growth trajectory.
4. Ongoing macroeconomic headwinds impacted consumer spending within the e-commerce sector. While Amazon's operating income for fiscal Q3 2026 was strong, the broader e-commerce industry faced economic challenges during the period. Consumers were observed to be seeking value due to reduced disposable income, accumulating debt, and persistently elevated interest rates. Although inflation, as measured by personal consumption expenditure, had eased to approximately 2.3%, other business costs, such as those related to climate change and retail theft, continued to pose profitability hurdles for the industry.
5. Significant insider selling activity by executives raised questions about internal sentiment. During the period since July 31, 2026, several Amazon executives engaged in substantial open-market sales of company stock, with no reported insider purchases. Notable transactions included Jeffrey P. Bezos selling $346.5 million in August 2026, Andrew R. Jassy selling $35.4 million across multiple filings up to August 2026, Douglas J. Herrington selling $31.7 million up to October 2026, Matthew S. Garman selling $18.4 million up to August 2026, and David Zapolsky selling $16.3 million up to August 2026. The cumulative value of these insider sales, totaling hundreds of millions of dollars, may have been interpreted by the market as a lack of strong conviction in the stock's immediate upside potential.
Show less
Amazon.com (AMZN) stock has lost about 10% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Amazon's fiscal Q3 2026 earnings missed analyst expectations for both diluted earnings per share (EPS) and revenue. The company reported diluted EPS of $1.89, falling short of the consensus estimate of $1.97 by $0.08. Net sales reached $201.94 billion, missing analysts' revenue forecast of approximately $202.22 billion by about 0.1%. Although operating income for the quarter increased significantly to $28.1 billion, a 61% rise year-over-year, and Amazon Web Services (AWS) revenue grew 39% to $46.0 billion, the top and bottom-line misses contributed to a stock decline of around 6-7% in after-hours and pre-market trading following the October 29, 2026, announcement.
2. Substantial capital expenditures (capex) and a swing to negative free cash flow concerned investors. Amazon's capital expenditures for fiscal Q3 2026 reached $77.3 billion, significantly exceeding the consensus estimate of $58.7 billion. The company reiterated its full-year 2026 cash capital expenditure guidance of approximately $220 billion, primarily allocated to AWS and AI infrastructure investments. This aggressive spending led to trailing twelve-month free cash flow becoming negative $42.4 billion, a stark contrast to the positive $14.8 billion in the prior 12-month period, raising investor scrutiny on capital efficiency.
3. Softer-than-expected revenue guidance for fiscal Q4 2026 contributed to investor apprehension. Amazon provided guidance for fiscal Q4 2026 net sales to be between $240.0 billion and $247.0 billion. The midpoint of this guidance, $243.5 billion, fell below the analyst consensus estimate of $244.5 billion. A conservative outlook for the crucial holiday shopping quarter likely amplified concerns about future growth trajectory.
4. Ongoing macroeconomic headwinds impacted consumer spending within the e-commerce sector. While Amazon's operating income for fiscal Q3 2026 was strong, the broader e-commerce industry faced economic challenges during the period. Consumers were observed to be seeking value due to reduced disposable income, accumulating debt, and persistently elevated interest rates. Although inflation, as measured by personal consumption expenditure, had eased to approximately 2.3%, other business costs, such as those related to climate change and retail theft, continued to pose profitability hurdles for the industry.
5. Significant insider selling activity by executives raised questions about internal sentiment. During the period since July 31, 2026, several Amazon executives engaged in substantial open-market sales of company stock, with no reported insider purchases. Notable transactions included Jeffrey P. Bezos selling $346.5 million in August 2026, Andrew R. Jassy selling $35.4 million across multiple filings up to August 2026, Douglas J. Herrington selling $31.7 million up to October 2026, Matthew S. Garman selling $18.4 million up to August 2026, and David Zapolsky selling $16.3 million up to August 2026. The cumulative value of these insider sales, totaling hundreds of millions of dollars, may have been interpreted by the market as a lack of strong conviction in the stock's immediate upside potential.
Show less
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -11.5% change in AMZN stock from 7/31/2026 to 10/31/2026 was primarily driven by a -10.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 10312026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 271.58 | 240.35 | -11.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 775,680 | 797,455 | 2.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 17.4% | 16.9% | -3.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 21.6 | 19.3 | -10.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 10,769 | 10,797 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -11.5% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 10/31/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AMZN | -11.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.2% | 53.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | -0.6% | 64.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -9.3% change in AMZN stock from 4/30/2026 to 10/31/2026 was primarily driven by a -38.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 10312026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 265.06 | 240.35 | -9.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 742,776 | 797,455 | 7.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.2% | 16.9% | 38.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 31.4 | 19.3 | -38.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 10,743 | 10,797 | -0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -9.3% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 10/31/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AMZN | -9.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.4% | 48.2% |
| Sector (XLY) | -2.3% | 69.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -1.6% change in AMZN stock from 10/31/2025 to 10/31/2026 was primarily driven by a -43.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 10312026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 244.22 | 240.35 | -1.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 691,330 | 797,455 | 15.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.1% | 16.9% | 52.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 34.1 | 19.3 | -43.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 10,674 | 10,797 | -1.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -1.6% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 10/31/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AMZN | -1.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.7% | 55.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | -3.2% | 71.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 80.6% change in AMZN stock from 10/31/2023 to 10/31/2026 was primarily driven by a 366.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 10312026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 133.09 | 240.35 | 80.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 554,028 | 797,455 | 43.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.6% | 16.9% | 366.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 68.4 | 19.3 | -71.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 10,322 | 10,797 | -4.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 80.6% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 10/31/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 80.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 86.9% | 66.2% |
| Sector (XLY) | 55.2% | 73.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AMZN Return | 2% | -50% | 81% | 44% | 5% | 4% | 48% |
| Peers Return | 31% | -37% | 78% | 54% | 25% | -6% | 167% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AMZN Win Rate | 50% | 25% | 83% | 75% | 42% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 35% | 70% | 72% | 55% | 42% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AMZN Max Drawdown | -15% | -52% | -20% | -19% | -31% | -20% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -14% | -50% | -16% | -15% | -27% | -30% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MSFT, GOOGL, WMT, META, NFLX. See AMZN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/30/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AMZN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.2% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.4% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 91 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -19.4% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.1% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 93 days | 18 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -40.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 598 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -22.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 33 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -31.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.3% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 130 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -13.2% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.2% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 72 days | 6 days |
In The Past
Amazon.com's stock fell -26.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 35.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
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| Event | AMZN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.2% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.4% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 91 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -40.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 598 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -22.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 33 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -31.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.3% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 130 days | 105 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -26.2% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.4% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 79 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -62.3% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 165.1% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 245 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Amazon.com's stock fell -26.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 35.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Amazon.com (AMZN)
Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) is a global technology company known for its extensive e-commerce operations, cloud computing services, and consumer electronic devices. The company primarily engages in the retail sale of consumer products and subscriptions through its online and physical stores across North America and internationally. A significant part of its retail business involves selling merchandise directly and enabling numerous third-party sellers to offer their products on Amazon’s platform, serving a vast individual consumer base.
Beyond its retail footprint, Amazon is a leading provider of electronic devices, manufacturing products such as Kindle e-readers, Fire tablets, Fire TVs, Ring smart home devices, and Echo smart speakers. It also operates Amazon Web Services (AWS), a major cloud computing platform that delivers a comprehensive suite of services including compute, storage, databases, analytics, and machine learning solutions to developers, enterprises, and content creators worldwide. Additionally, Amazon offers programs that support authors, musicians, filmmakers, and app developers in publishing and selling their content, complemented by its Amazon Prime membership program which provides free shipping, streaming media access, and other benefits to consumers.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Amazon.com:
The **Walmart** for the internet, selling virtually everything online.
Like **Netflix** for digital content, combined with a fast shipping subscription service.
A massive cloud computing provider like **Microsoft** or **IBM**, offering foundational internet infrastructure to businesses worldwide.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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- Online & Physical Retail: Amazon sells consumer products and merchandise directly and from third-party sellers through its online and physical stores.
- Electronic Devices: The company manufactures and sells various electronic devices, including Kindle e-readers, Fire tablets, Fire TVs, Ring security products, and Echo smart speakers.
- Cloud Computing Services (AWS): Amazon Web Services provides a comprehensive suite of cloud services, encompassing compute, storage, database, analytics, machine learning, and more for businesses.
- Amazon Prime Membership: This subscription program offers benefits such as free expedited shipping, access to streaming movies and series, and other exclusive services.
- Seller & Content Creator Programs: Amazon provides platforms and services enabling third-party sellers to offer products and allowing authors, musicians, filmmakers, and developers to publish and sell content.
- Media Content Production: The company develops and produces original media content, including movies and series for its streaming services.
- Fulfillment & Advertising Services: Amazon offers fulfillment services for inventory storage and shipping, alongside advertising solutions for brands and businesses.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Amazon.com (AMZN) primarily sells to individuals across several categories. While the company also has a significant business-to-business segment through Amazon Web Services (AWS) and services for third-party sellers, its core retail operations, device sales, and subscription services are largely directed at individual consumers.
The major categories of customers Amazon serves include:
- General Consumers/Shoppers: Individuals who purchase a vast array of physical products (ranging from electronics and books to groceries and and apparel) through Amazon's online marketplace and physical stores. This category also includes subscribers to the Amazon Prime membership program, who benefit from faster shipping, exclusive deals, and access to various digital content services.
- Digital Media Consumers: Individuals who utilize Amazon's digital content offerings. This encompasses viewers of Amazon Prime Video for movies and series, listeners of Amazon Music, readers of Kindle e-books, and users engaging with Twitch streams and other digital content platforms provided by Amazon.
- Device Owners: Individuals who purchase and use Amazon's proprietary electronic devices. This category includes owners of Kindle e-readers, Fire tablets, Fire TVs, Echo smart speakers, and Ring smart home security devices, all designed for individual use and integration into their daily lives.
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Andy Jassy, President and Chief Executive Officer
Andy Jassy joined Amazon in 1997 as a marketing manager and co-founded Amazon Web Services (AWS) in 2003, serving as its CEO from April 2016 until July 2021. He held various leadership roles across Amazon before founding AWS. Before Amazon, Jassy co-founded a short-lived startup and worked as a project manager for a collectibles company. He earned an A.B. in government and an MBA from Harvard University.
Brian T. Olsavsky, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Brian T. Olsavsky has served as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Amazon since June 2015, having joined the company in April 2002. Prior to this role, he was Vice President, Finance for the Global Consumer Business from 2011 to 2015. His earlier career included financial and operational roles at Union Carbide, BF Goodrich, and seven years at Fisher Scientific. Olsavsky holds a B.S. in Mechanical Engineering from Penn State University and an MBA in Finance from Carnegie Mellon University’s Tepper School of Business.
Doug Herrington, Chief Executive Officer, Worldwide Amazon Stores
Doug Herrington assumed the role of CEO of Worldwide Amazon Stores in July 2022. He joined Amazon in 2005 to launch the Amazon consumables business and led teams that developed services like Subscribe and Save, Amazon Fresh, Amazon Business, Alexa Shopping, and Buy with Prime. Before Amazon, Herrington was a management consultant at Booz Allen Hamilton. He also co-founded and served as CEO of KeepMedia, a digital news service, and held leadership positions at the grocery delivery startup Webvan. He earned an MBA from Harvard Business School and an AB in Economics from Princeton University.
Matt Garman, Chief Executive Officer, Amazon Web Services
Matt Garman became CEO of Amazon Web Services (AWS) in June 2024. He joined Amazon in 2006 (or as an intern in 2005) and was AWS's first product manager, contributing to the launch of many core AWS services. His previous roles at AWS include Senior Vice President, AWS Sales, Marketing, and Global Services, as well as leadership in product management, engineering, and operations for compute and storage services. Garman holds a B.S. and M.S. in Industrial Engineering from Stanford University and an MBA from Northwestern University Kellogg School of Management.
David Zapolsky, Senior Vice President, Chief Global Affairs & Legal Officer
David Zapolsky serves as Amazon’s Senior Vice President, Chief Global Affairs & Legal Officer.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Amazon.com (AMZN) faces several significant risks to its business, primarily stemming from its dominant market position and the dynamic nature of the e-commerce and cloud computing industries.
- Regulatory and Antitrust Scrutiny: Amazon's vast scale and market power in both e-commerce and cloud services have made it a frequent target for antitrust investigations and regulatory actions globally. Governments and regulatory bodies in the U.S., EU, UK, and other regions are actively scrutinizing Amazon's business practices, particularly concerning its treatment of third-party sellers, alleged anti-discounting tactics, and potential for self-preferencing its own products and services over competitors. These investigations can lead to significant fines, forced changes in business models, and even potential divestitures, which could fundamentally alter Amazon's operations and profitability. For instance, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and 17 state attorneys general filed a major antitrust lawsuit against Amazon in September 2023, alleging the company illegally maintains monopolies in online superstore and online marketplace services. Separately, the FTC secured a $2.5 billion settlement with Amazon in September 2025 over allegations of enrolling millions of consumers in Prime subscriptions without consent and making cancellation difficult.
- Intense Competition Across Segments: Despite its market leadership, Amazon faces robust competition in its core business areas. In e-commerce, it competes with established retailers like Walmart and Target, as well as rapidly growing disruptive newcomers such as Temu and Shein. The threat of Amazon directly competing with its own third-party sellers by developing similar, often cheaper, private-label products is also a significant concern for many businesses utilizing its platform. In the cloud computing sector, Amazon Web Services (AWS) holds a leading market share but faces aggressive competition from well-funded rivals like Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud Platform. This intense competition across all segments can lead to pricing pressures, impact market share, and necessitate continuous heavy investment in innovation and infrastructure, potentially affecting profit margins.
- Macroeconomic Headwinds and Consumer Spending Volatility: Amazon's retail business is highly susceptible to broader macroeconomic conditions, including inflation, interest rate changes, and overall consumer spending patterns. Economic downturns, inflationary pressures, and reduced consumer discretionary spending can directly impact sales volume and revenue in its North American and International retail segments. While AWS is a more resilient segment, enterprise spending on cloud services could also be affected during prolonged economic uncertainty. Rising operational costs, such as wages, shipping, and energy, further squeeze profit margins, even as Amazon navigates these economic fluctuations.
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- The emergence of ultra-low-cost, direct-from-manufacturer e-commerce platforms (e.g., Temu, Shein) which offer a different supply chain model, often with significantly lower prices, challenging Amazon's third-party marketplace and value proposition in certain retail categories.
- Increasing global regulatory scrutiny and antitrust actions that threaten to impose significant operational changes, fines, or restrictions on Amazon's business practices across its e-commerce and cloud segments.
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Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) operates across several large and growing addressable markets globally and in North America. Here are the estimated market sizes for its main products and services:
E-commerce (Retail Sale of Consumer Products)
- The global e-commerce market was valued at approximately USD 21.62 trillion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 83.19 trillion by 2035, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.43% from 2026 to 2035. Other estimates place the global market at USD 33.8 trillion in 2025, growing to USD 243.4 trillion by 2034 with a CAGR of 24.54% from 2026-2034.
- The North America e-commerce market was valued at USD 1.45 trillion in 2025 and is estimated to grow to USD 2.51 trillion by 2031, with a CAGR of 9.57% during the forecast period (2026-2031). North America accounted for over 36% of the global market in 2023.
- Specifically, the North America B2C e-commerce market was valued at USD 1,354.45 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 3,015.39 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 9.3% from 2025 to 2033.
- The North America B2B e-commerce market is valued at USD 1,250 billion.
Amazon Web Services (AWS - Cloud Computing)
- The global cloud computing market size was valued at USD 736.10 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to register a CAGR of 20.8% from 2025 to 2034. Another report estimates the global market at USD 943.65 billion in 2025, projected to reach USD 3,349.61 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 16.0% from 2026 to 2033.
- The North America cloud computing market was valued at USD 353.56 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 1,092.70 billion by 2032, exhibiting a CAGR of 15.20% during the forecast period. North America held a 39.0% share of the global cloud computing market in 2024.
Electronic Devices (Kindle, Fire tablets, Fire TVs, Rings, Echo - Smart Home Devices)
- The global smart home device market was valued at USD 127.80 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 537.27 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 27.0% from 2025 to 2030. Other estimates indicate a global market size of USD 163.30 billion in 2025, projected to grow to USD 278.32 billion by 2034 at a CAGR of 5.62%.
- The North America smart home device market accounted for a leading global market share of 39.45% in 2025, with a market size of USD 70.38 billion in 2026. The U.S. smart home market was worth over USD 50.6 billion in 2024.
Digital Content and Publishing (Kindle Direct Publishing, media content)
- The global digital publishing market size was valued at USD 204.83 billion in 2024 and is poised to grow to USD 470.09 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 9.67% during the forecast period (2026-2033). Another source states the market was valued at USD 163.89 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 279.68 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 6.2% during the forecast period.
- North America was the largest region in the digital publishing market in 2025, accounting for 36.12% of the global market share.
Subscription Services (Amazon Prime - streaming of movies and series)
- The global video on demand (VOD) market was valued at approximately USD 175.4 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 528.9 billion by 2034. Another report estimates the global market size at USD 133.44 billion in 2025, projected to grow to USD 477.04 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 14.90%.
- The global subscription video on demand (SVOD) market size was estimated at USD 95.50 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.6% from 2025 to 2030.
- The North America subscription video on demand market accounted for a significant share of over 44% in 2024. The U.S. subscription video on demand industry dominated with a share of over 67% in 2024.
Advertising
- The global digital advertising market size was estimated at USD 488.40 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 1,164.25 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 15.4% from 2025 to 2030. Another source estimates the global market at USD 650.00 billion in 2025, expected to exceed USD 1,593 billion by 2035, growing at a CAGR of 9.38% from 2026 to 2035.
- North America dominated the digital advertising market with a share of over 31% in 2024. The North America digital advertising market generated a revenue of USD 153,063.9 million in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 339,261.6 million by 2030, with a CAGR of 14% from 2025 to 2030. The US market is projected to reach USD 243,243.1 million by 2030.
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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Amazon.com (AMZN) over the next 2-3 years:
- Growth in Amazon Web Services (AWS) driven by Artificial Intelligence (AI): Amazon's cloud computing division, AWS, is projected to be a significant driver of future revenue growth. AWS reported a 24% year-over-year increase in revenue in Q4 2025, reaching $35.6 billion. Analysts expect AWS annual revenue growth to be around 30% over the next three years, surpassing the broader Wall Street projection of 25%. This acceleration is largely fueled by the surging demand for AI computing and ongoing migration of enterprise infrastructure to the cloud. Amazon is making substantial capital expenditures in AWS data centers, including AI infrastructure and custom silicon development, with plans to double power capacity by 2027. The company's cloud backlog also provides substantial revenue visibility, having reached $200 billion by Q3 2025 and $244 billion by Q4 2025.
- Expansion of Advertising Services: Amazon's advertising segment is rapidly growing and is expected to continue contributing significantly to revenue. Advertising services generated $56.2 billion in revenue in 2024, a 20% year-over-year increase, and $21.3 billion in Q4 2025, up 22% year-over-year. CEO Andy Jassy noted a $69 billion annual revenue run rate for the advertising business in Q4 2024. Projections suggest ad revenue could climb to $80-90 billion within the next 2-3 years. A key contributor to this growth is the introduction of ads on Prime Video in January 2024, which is forecast to increase ad revenue from $433 million in 2024 to $806 million in 2025. The ad-supported version of Prime Video reached over 130 million US consumers monthly in 2025, with an audience totaling 315 million viewers in Q4 2025.
- Growth and Enhancement of Amazon Prime Membership and Offerings: The Amazon Prime membership program remains a crucial driver by fostering customer loyalty and increasing shopping frequency. Paid US Amazon Prime subscribers are projected to exceed 128 million by the end of 2025, building on a base of over 240 million paid members globally. Amazon's strategies include offering flexible pricing plans (annual, monthly, quarterly, and "Lite" options in some markets) and enhancing benefits such as faster delivery, exclusive deals, and expanded digital content like Prime Video. The company's continued investment in innovative customer experiences, including AI-driven personalization and improvements in logistics for quicker delivery, further solidifies Prime's value proposition.
- International Expansion and Retail Optimization: Amazon's international segment is poised for continued growth. In 2025, the International segment sales increased by 13% year-over-year. The company is focused on capturing new audiences and fostering brand loyalty in emerging markets. Strategies include investments in rural markets and offering sharper prices in its international stores business. These efforts, combined with advancements in customer experience and optimized supply chain logistics, are expected to contribute to the overall retail segment's revenue growth.
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Share Repurchases
- In March 2022, Amazon's board approved an expanded share-repurchase authorization of $10 billion, replacing a previous $5 billion authorization.
- As of December 31, 2025, the company had repurchased approximately $3.88 billion worth of shares under the March 2022 authorization.
Share Issuance
- Amazon's common stock increased from 106 million shares in fiscal year 2021 to 112 million shares in fiscal year 2025.
Outbound Investments
- In 2021, Amazon acquired Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer (MGM) for $8.45 billion, significantly boosting its content library for Prime Video.
- The company acquired One Medical Group in July 2022 for approximately $3.9 billion.
- Amazon has committed significant international investments, including a $35 billion investment in India by 2030 and over $23 billion for new AWS cloud regions across Asia-Pacific and Latin America.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures were $61.053 billion in 2021, $63.645 billion in 2022, $52.729 billion in 2023, $82.999 billion in 2024, and $131.8 billion in 2025.
- Amazon anticipates investing approximately $200 billion in capital expenditures in 2026, primarily focused on artificial intelligence (AI), chips, robotics, and low earth orbit satellites.
- The capital expenditure is also directed towards expanding cloud computing infrastructure for AWS and increasing its rural delivery network.
Peer Outperformance in Broadline Retail
AMZN has outperformed 92% of its 12 Broadline Retail peers over 5Y. Broadline Retail ranks 18th of 22 industries in Consumer Discretionary by median 5Y return. The sector’s gains have largely come from elsewhere.
Share of Broadline Retail constituents that AMZN has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
57%
of 14 industry peers · -1.6% return
3Y
77%
of 13 industry peers · 75.4% return
5Y
92%
of 12 industry peers · 42.5% return
No Broadline Retail peer with a comparable growth profile has beaten AMZN by more than 20pp over 5Y.
Median price return by industry across the Consumer Discretionary sector, ranked by 5Y. Broadline Retail is AMZN's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education Services | 14 | -2.7% | 41.5% | 73.9% | CVSA 237% · LRN 121% · GHC 109% |
| Homebuilding | 17 | -1.9% | 37.8% | 33.8% | PHM 172% · CVCO 158% · TOL 155% |
| Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines | 21 | 18.1% | 47.8% | 24.3% | RCL 276% · MAR 160% · HLT 151% |
| Home Furnishings | 3 | -1.3% | 61.8% | 3.1% | SGI 51% · MHK -21% |
| Automotive Retail | 17 | -3.8% | 18.9% | 1.2% | MUSA 237% · PAG 126% · ORLY 112% |
| Home Improvement Retail | 5 | -10.8% | 16.1% | -1.2% | HD 1% · LOW -1% · FND -65% |
| Footwear | 9 | 84.3% | 72.2% | -6.8% | DECK 24% · SHOO 8% · CROX -7% |
| Restaurants | 36 | 0.3% | 5.8% | -15.6% | EAT 406% · CAKE 212% · TXRH 125% |
| Specialized Consumer Services | 10 | -6.9% | 49.9% | -17.9% | HRB 163% · FTDR 135% · ADT 34% |
| Distributors | 4 | -11.3% | -14.4% | -25.2% | ARMK 117% · GPC 7% · POOL -57% |
| Leisure Products | 14 | -14.6% | -7.3% | -34.0% | GOLF 79% · HAS 51% · BC -10% |
| Household Appliances | 18 | 22.8% | 18.2% | -35.9% | |
| Apparel Retail | 27 | 1.0% | 13.6% | -37.9% | ANF 316% · TJX 130% · ROST 113% |
| Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods | 29 | 7.3% | 37.2% | -40.9% | RL 241% · TPR 239% · KTB 67% |
| Leisure Facilities | 12 | -9.1% | 2.6% | -41.5% | OSW 185% · LTH 160% · PLNT -33% |
| Automotive Parts & Equipment | 39 | -12.7% | -4.9% | -45.5% | MOD 1080% · GTX 220% · PATK 65% |
| Computer & Electronics Retail | 3 | 16.8% | 67.8% | -47.2% | BBY -1% · GME -47% |
| Broadline Retail ← | 13 | -5.9% | 28.0% | -51.7% | EBAY 73% · AMZN 43% · OLLI 33% |
| Casinos & Gaming | 21 | -23.4% | -17.0% | -55.1% | BYD 20% · RRR 14% · LVS 2% |
| Other Specialty Retail | 24 | -11.8% | -10.9% | -59.7% | ULTA 74% · ASO 45% · DKS 30% |
| Automobile Manufacturers | 8 | -15.3% | -43.2% | -70.4% | GM 68% · TSLA 8% · F -2% |
| Consumer Electronics | 11 | -32.7% | -32.9% | -79.0% | GRMN 110% |
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are limited to companies above $2B market cap.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 261.15 |
| Mkt Cap | 2,084.0 |
| Rev LTM | 408,772 |
| Op Inc LTM | 91,873 |
| FCF LTM | 16,628 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 27,510 |
| CFO LTM | 150,694 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 122,517 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 16.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 15.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 15.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.6% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 21.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 29.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 32.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 30.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 31.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2,084.0 |
| P/S | 5.8 |
| P/Op Inc | 22.9 |
| P/EBIT | 16.9 |
| P/E | 20.1 |
| P/CFO | 19.5 |
| Total Yield | 5.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.9% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -5.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -0.4% |
| 6M Rtn | -8.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -0.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 87.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -6.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -7.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -15.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -12.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 17.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America | 426,305 | 387,497 | 352,828 | 315,880 | 279,833 |
| International | 161,894 | 142,906 | 131,200 | 118,007 | 127,787 |
| Amazon Web Services (AWS) | 128,725 | 107,556 | 90,757 | 80,096 | 62,202 |
| Total | 716,924 | 637,959 | 574,785 | 513,983 | 469,822 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon Web Services (AWS) | 45,606 | 39,834 | 24,631 | 22,841 | 18,532 |
| North America | 29,619 | 24,967 | 14,877 | -2,847 | 7,271 |
| International | 4,750 | 3,792 | -2,656 | -7,746 | -924 |
| Total | 79,975 | 68,593 | 36,852 | 12,248 | 24,879 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon Web Services (AWS) | 252,588 | 155,953 | 108,533 | 88,491 | 63,835 |
| Corporate | 247,818 | 189,334 | 153,574 | 124,250 | 137,476 |
| North America | 235,652 | 210,120 | 196,029 | 185,268 | 161,255 |
| International | 81,984 | 69,487 | 69,718 | 64,666 | 57,983 |
| Total | 818,042 | 624,894 | 527,854 | 462,675 | 420,549 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $240.35 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 2,595.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 05/16/1997 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -15.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $254.28 | $243.40 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | up |
| Distance from DMA | -5.5% | -1.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 28.1% | 35.0% |
| Downside Capture | 197.00 | 168.84 |
| Upside Capture | 125.13 | 157.78 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 47.3% | 53.8% |
AMZN Betas & Captures as of 10/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.03 | 1.86 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.46 | 1.39 |
| Up Beta | 1.64 | 1.20 | 0.67 | 1.76 | 1.10 | 1.23 |
| Down Beta | 1.02 | 1.59 | 1.90 | 1.49 | 1.62 | 1.49 |
| Up Capture | 243% | 196% | 121% | 115% | 182% | 287% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 20 | 26 | 55 | 125 | 387 |
| Down Capture | 242% | 208% | 185% | 144% | 132% | 109% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 38 | 71 | 126 | 363 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AMZN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 4.4% | 35.0% | 0.17 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | -2.9% | 19.3% | -0.29 | 72.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 10.9% | 12.8% | 0.52 | 53.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | -2.0% | 28.6% | -0.08 | 13.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 48.2% | 20.6% | 1.79 | -12.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 10.2% | 13.7% | 0.45 | 9.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -30.0% | 43.5% | -0.70 | 21.7% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AMZN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 7.2% | 36.6% | 0.27 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 4.5% | 24.1% | 0.14 | 79.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.2% | 17.1% | 0.53 | 70.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 16.2% | 19.0% | 0.68 | 7.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.2% | 19.5% | 0.35 | 7.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.9% | 18.9% | -0.06 | 37.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.9% | 51.6% | 0.28 | 32.0% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AMZN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 19.3% | 33.2% | 0.61 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.4% | 22.2% | 0.51 | 74.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 65.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.4% | 16.5% | 0.56 | 6.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 13.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.3% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 33.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 61.8% | 66.2% | 1.02 | 19.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 11/1/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2026 | -1.4% | ||
| 7/30/2026 | 15.3% | 15.6% | 13.1% |
| 4/29/2026 | 0.8% | 4.5% | 2.9% |
| 2/5/2026 | -5.6% | -10.4% | -4.1% |
| 10/30/2025 | 9.6% | 9.1% | 5.2% |
| 7/31/2025 | -8.3% | -4.7% | -2.2% |
| 5/1/2025 | -0.1% | 1.0% | 8.6% |
| 2/6/2025 | -4.1% | -3.5% | -18.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 12 | 12 |
| # Negative | 14 | 11 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.9% |
| Median Negative | -4.8% | -6.2% | -7.2% |
| Max Positive | 15.3% | 16.6% | 23.6% |
| Max Negative | -14.0% | -19.5% | -20.4% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2026 | -1.4% | ||
| 7/30/2026 | 15.3% | 15.6% | 13.1% |
| 4/29/2026 | 0.8% | 4.5% | 2.9% |
| 2/5/2026 | -5.6% | -10.4% | -4.1% |
| 10/30/2025 | 9.6% | 9.1% | 5.2% |
| 7/31/2025 | -8.3% | -4.7% | -2.2% |
| 5/1/2025 | -0.1% | 1.0% | 8.6% |
| 2/6/2025 | -4.1% | -3.5% | -18.5% |
| 10/31/2024 | 6.2% | 12.7% | 13.0% |
| 8/1/2024 | -8.8% | -9.9% | -3.0% |
| 4/30/2024 | 2.3% | 7.9% | 2.5% |
| 2/1/2024 | 7.9% | 6.6% | 11.5% |
| 10/26/2023 | 6.8% | 15.5% | 23.6% |
| 8/3/2023 | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.1% |
| 4/27/2023 | -4.0% | -5.3% | 9.4% |
| 2/2/2023 | -8.4% | -13.0% | -17.0% |
| 10/27/2022 | -6.8% | -19.5% | -15.3% |
| 7/28/2022 | 10.4% | 16.6% | 6.9% |
| 4/28/2022 | -14.0% | -19.5% | -20.4% |
| 2/3/2022 | 13.5% | 14.5% | -1.0% |
| 10/28/2021 | -2.2% | 0.9% | 3.3% |
| 7/29/2021 | -7.6% | -6.2% | -7.0% |
| 4/29/2021 | -0.1% | -4.8% | -7.2% |
| 2/2/2021 | -2.0% | -2.2% | -11.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 12 | 12 |
| # Negative | 14 | 11 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.9% |
| Median Negative | -4.8% | -6.2% | -7.2% |
| Max Positive | 15.3% | 16.6% | 23.6% |
| Max Negative | -14.0% | -19.5% | -20.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/31/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/06/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/02/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/07/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/02/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/03/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/31/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/06/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/02/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/07/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/02/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/03/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/04/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/29/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/30/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/30/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/03/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/30/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/31/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/01/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 01/31/2020 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 10/30/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 10/29/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 Net Sales | Reported | 240.00 Bil | 243.50 Bil | 247.00 Bil | 22.1% | Higher New | Guidance: 199.50 Bil for Q3 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Net Sales Growth | Reported | 12.0% | 14.0% | 16.0% | 3.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 10.5% for Q3 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Advertising Revenue Growth | Reported | |||||||
| Q4 2026 Operating Income | Reported | 28.50 Bil | 31.00 Bil | 33.50 Bil | 26.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 24.50 Bil for Q3 2026 | |
| 2026 Cash Capital Expenditures | Reported | 220.00 Bil | ||||||
| 2027 AWS Revenue Growth | Reported | 40.0% | 40.0% | |||||
| 2028 AWS Revenue Growth | Reported | 40.0% | 40.0% | |||||
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/30/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Revenue | Reported | 197.00 Bil | 199.50 Bil | 202.00 Bil | 1.5% | Raised | Guidance: 196.50 Bil for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | 9.0% | 10.5% | 12.0% | -7.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 17.5% for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Operating Income | Reported | 22.50 Bil | 24.50 Bil | 26.50 Bil | 11.4% | Raised | Guidance: 22.00 Bil for Q2 2026 | |
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/29/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Net sales | Reported | 194.00 Bil | 196.50 Bil | 199.00 Bil | 11.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 176.00 Bil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Net sales growth | Reported | 16.0% | 17.5% | 19.0% | 4.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 13.0% for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Operating income | Reported | 20.00 Bil | 22.00 Bil | 24.00 Bil | 15.8% | Higher New | Guidance: 19.00 Bil for Q1 2026 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | Reported | 173.50 Bil | 176.00 Bil | 178.50 Bil | -16.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 209.50 Bil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | 11.0% | 13.0% | 15.0% | 1.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 11.5% for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Operating Income | Reported | 16.50 Bil | 19.00 Bil | 21.50 Bil | -19.1% | Lower New | Guidance: 23.50 Bil for Q4 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 200.00 Bil | ||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 10/5/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 10052026 | 251.50 | 1,000 | 251,500 | 119,382,272 | Form |
| 2 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 9032026 | 254.77 | 1,000 | 254,770 | 121,189,248 | Form |
| 3 | Zapolsky, David | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 8252026 | 259.77 | 9,258 | 2,404,951 | 10,699,926 | Form |
| 4 | Jassy, Andrew R | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 8252026 | 259.01 | 20,000 | 5,180,213 | 579,087,208 | Form |
| 5 | Garman, Matthew S | CEO Amazon Web Services | Direct | Sell | 8252026 | 259.06 | 14,541 | 3,766,920 | 4,609,627 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 10052026 | 251.50 | 1,000 | 251,500 | 119,382,272 | Form |
| 2 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 9032026 | 254.77 | 1,000 | 254,770 | 121,189,248 | Form |
| 3 | Zapolsky, David | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 8252026 | 259.77 | 9,258 | 2,404,951 | 10,699,926 | Form |
| 4 | Jassy, Andrew R | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 8252026 | 259.01 | 20,000 | 5,180,213 | 579,087,208 | Form |
| 5 | Garman, Matthew S | CEO Amazon Web Services | Direct | Sell | 8252026 | 259.06 | 14,541 | 3,766,920 | 4,609,627 | Form |
| 6 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 8252026 | 259.01 | 6,362 | 1,647,810 | 123,464,269 | Form |
| 7 | Zapolsky, David | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 8252026 | 259.14 | 6,172 | 1,599,394 | 13,072,949 | Form |
| 8 | Olsavsky, Brian T | Senior Vice President and CFO | Direct | Sell | 8252026 | 260.31 | 6,172 | 1,606,633 | 28,427,674 | Form |
| 9 | Reynolds, Shelley | Vice President | Direct | Sell | 8252026 | 259.01 | 2,343 | 606,854 | 31,023,884 | Form |
| 10 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 8192026 | 262.76 | 3,741 | 982,993 | 122,746,221 | Form |
| 11 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 8052026 | 278.39 | 1,000 | 278,390 | 134,609,082 | Form |
| 12 | Bezos, Jeffrey P | Executive Chair | Direct | Sell | 8052026 | 286.41 | 1,209,649 | 346,453,514 | 251,964,552,579 | Form |
| 13 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 7022026 | 239.77 | 1,000 | 239,770 | 116,175,039 | Form |
| 14 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 6032026 | 266.19 | 1,000 | 266,190 | 129,242,432 | Form |
| 15 | Zapolsky, David | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 5262026 | 268.53 | 9,270 | 2,489,273 | 11,060,751 | Form |
| 16 | Garman, Matthew S | CEO Amazon Web Services | Direct | Sell | 5262026 | 263.40 | 15,467 | 4,073,956 | 3,729,433 | Form |
| 17 | Jassy, Andrew R | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 5262026 | 263.42 | 20,000 | 5,268,342 | 581,036,490 | Form |
| 18 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 5262026 | 262.39 | 6,370 | 1,671,439 | 127,660,954 | Form |
| 19 | Zapolsky, David | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 5262026 | 263.43 | 6,180 | 1,627,979 | 13,292,525 | Form |
| 20 | Reynolds, Shelley | Vice President | Direct | Sell | 5262026 | 262.38 | 2,363 | 620,003 | 31,427,840 | Form |
| 21 | Garman, Matthew S | CEO Amazon Web Services | Direct | Sell | 5192026 | 262.66 | 11,475 | 3,013,973 | 3,002,153 | Form |
| 22 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 5192026 | 262.59 | 3,742 | 982,602 | 125,246,814 | Form |
| 23 | Jassy, Andrew R | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 5062026 | 275.00 | 31,352 | 8,621,800 | 598,335,650 | Form |
| 24 | Rubinstein, Jonathan | Direct | Sell | 5042026 | 273.02 | 3,706 | 1,011,812 | 20,462,303 | Form | |
| 25 | Rubinstein, Jonathan | Direct | Sell | 4282026 | 260.00 | 3,849 | 1,000,740 | 20,450,040 | Form | |
| 26 | Jassy, Andrew R | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 4212026 | 255.00 | 31,000 | 7,905,000 | 562,815,090 | Form |
| 27 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 4162026 | 245.00 | 20,500 | 5,022,500 | 122,465,945 | Form |
| 28 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 4032026 | 210.50 | 1,000 | 210,500 | 109,535,990 | Form |
| 29 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 204.25 | 1,000 | 204,250 | 106,487,984 | Form |
| 30 | Zapolsky, David | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 205.43 | 10,649 | 2,187,624 | 8,461,662 | Form |
| 31 | Jassy, Andrew R | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 205.18 | 19,872 | 4,077,378 | 459,221,638 | Form |
| 32 | Garman, Matthew S | CEO Amazon Web Services | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 205.22 | 17,751 | 3,642,842 | 1,930,084 | Form |
| 33 | Zapolsky, David | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 205.35 | 7,100 | 1,457,990 | 10,645,178 | Form |
| 34 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 205.82 | 6,835 | 1,406,785 | 107,512,762 | Form |
| 35 | Reynolds, Shelley | Vice President | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 205.90 | 2,695 | 554,892 | 24,662,327 | Form |
| 36 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 198.37 | 4,784 | 948,990 | 101,585,756 | Form |
| 37 | Alexander, Keith Brian | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 203.88 | 900 | 183,492 | 1,278,328 | Form | |
| 38 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 2132026 | 208.00 | 1,000 | 208,000 | 105,026,272 | Form |
| 39 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 12032025 | 233.22 | 2,500 | 583,050 | 117,993,927 | Form |
| 40 | Zapolsky, David | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 222.49 | 13,570 | 3,019,189 | 9,164,363 | Form |
| 41 | Jassy, Andrew R | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 216.94 | 19,872 | 4,310,952 | 479,061,908 | Form |
| 42 | Garman, Matthew S | CEO Amazon Web Services | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 216.90 | 17,768 | 3,853,946 | 1,360,637 | Form |
| 43 | Zapolsky, David | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 216.94 | 7,100 | 1,540,277 | 11,879,655 | Form |
| 44 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 216.40 | 6,835 | 1,479,098 | 110,025,420 | Form |
| 45 | Reynolds, Shelley | Vice President | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 216.41 | 2,695 | 583,222 | 25,921,439 | Form |
| 46 | Huttenlocher, Daniel P | Direct | Sell | 11242025 | 226.61 | 1,237 | 280,317 | 5,925,398 | Form | |
| 47 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 11182025 | 232.71 | 4,784 | 1,113,263 | 115,929,698 | Form |
| 48 | Alexander, Keith Brian | Direct | Sell | 11182025 | 233.00 | 900 | 209,700 | 1,670,610 | Form | |
| 49 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 11042025 | 255.44 | 2,500 | 638,600 | 125,422,828 | Form |
| 50 | Rubinstein, Jonathan | Direct | Sell | 11042025 | 250.03 | 8,173 | 2,043,495 | 20,009,901 | Form | |
| 51 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 11042025 | 250.03 | 22,000 | 5,500,660 | 123,391,555 | Form |
| 52 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 10032025 | 217.10 | 2,500 | 542,750 | 111,916,570 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 1, 202613F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)
Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skye Global Management LP | $2.0 Bil | 43.7% | 44 | ADD +8.6% | 13F |
| Pamplona Capital Management, LLC | $182.6 Mil | 38.6% | 5 | Hold | 13F |
| Altarock Partners LP | $1.6 Bil | 38.2% | 8 | Hold | 13F |
| Brighton Jones LLC | $861.0 Mil | 36.3% | 24 | Hold | 13F |
| Nellore Capital Management LLC | $225.1 Mil | 28.8% | 11 | ADD +6.3% | 13F |
| Powszechne Towarzystwo Emerytalne Allianz Polska S.A. | $63.8 Mil | 23.8% | 10 | Hold | 13F |
| OP Asset Management Ltd | $399.5 Mil | 22.1% | 64 | New | 13F |
| Standard Investments LLC | $369.3 Mil | 21.7% | 11 | ADD +6.0% | 13F |
| BlueSpruce Investments, LP | $129.1 Mil | 20.5% | 10 | TRIM -79.6% | 13F |
| Ulysses Management LLC | $53.6 Mil | 20.2% | 28 | Hold | 13F |
| Miller Wealth Advisors, LLC | $51.7 Mil | 19.9% | 117 | Hold | 13F |
| Third Point LLC | $404.0 Mil | 19.4% | 33 | New | 13F |
| Torque Asset Management LLC | $49.0 Mil | 19.3% | 12 | Hold | 13F |
| Tikvah Management LLC | $61.6 Mil | 19.1% | 21 | Hold | 13F |
| B&D White Capital Company, LLC | $153.6 Mil | 19.0% | 74 | Hold | 13F |
| Greenlea Lane Capital Management, LLC | $65.1 Mil | 18.9% | 9 | Hold | 13F |
| Hoey Investments, Inc | $126.2 Mil | 18.6% | 416 | Hold | 13F |
| Selkirk Management LLC | $52.7 Mil | 17.9% | 11 | Hold | 13F |
| GCQ FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY Ltd | $134.6 Mil | 17.9% | 11 | ADD +9.5% | 13F |
| Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P. | $2.4 Bil | 17.4% | 11 | ADD +19.2% | 13F |
| Anomaly Capital Management, LP | $284.1 Mil | 17.2% | 21 | TRIM -8.3% | 13F |
| MBB Public Markets I LLC | $141.9 Mil | 17.0% | 24 | ADD +7.1% | 13F |
| Alua Capital Management LP | $142.9 Mil | 15.6% | 14 | New | 13F |
| OAKMONT Corp | $82.1 Mil | 15.6% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Voyager Global Management LP | $453.0 Mil | 15.4% | 8 | ADD +20.8% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soroban Capital Partners LP | $1.7 Bil | 12.5% | 27 | New | 13F |
| Appaloosa LP | $899.7 Mil | 15.2% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) | $576.3 Mil | 13.3% | 346 | New | 13F |
| Stockbridge Partners LLC | $515.5 Mil | 12.5% | 16 | New | 13F |
| Third Point LLC | $404.0 Mil | 19.4% | 33 | New | 13F |
| OP Asset Management Ltd | $399.5 Mil | 22.1% | 64 | New | 13F |
| Avala Global LP | $246.2 Mil | 11.8% | 22 | New | 13F |
| Alua Capital Management LP | $142.9 Mil | 15.6% | 14 | New | 13F |
| HMI Capital Management, L.P. | $110.2 Mil | 14.6% | 11 | New | 13F |
| Manchester Global Management (UK) Ltd | $105.9 Mil | 14.1% | 23 | New | 13F |
| Think Investments LP | $78.6 Mil | 10.6% | 30 | New | 13F |
| Manitou Investment Management Ltd. | $58.0 Mil | 11.5% | 52 | New | 13F |
| Square Wave Capital, LLC | $54.9 Mil | 13.3% | 12 | New | 13F |
| Horiko Capital Management LLC | $46.2 Mil | 10.7% | 20 | New | 13F |
| ADAPT Investment Managers SA | $40.8 Mil | 13.8% | 34 | New | 13F |
| Ratan Capital Management LP | $39.1 Mil | 14.5% | 37 | New | 13F |
| ShawSpring Partners LLC | $38.8 Mil | 14.5% | 12 | New | 13F |
| Arkfeld Wealth Strategies, L.L.C. | $36.3 Mil | 11.5% | 115 | New | 13F |
| Maestria Partners LLC | $30.7 Mil | 11.2% | 13 | New | 13F |
| Crake Asset Management LLP | $438.0 Mil | 15.3% | 20 | ADD +26.4% | 13F |
| Voyager Global Management LP | $453.0 Mil | 15.4% | 8 | ADD +20.8% | 13F |
| Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P. | $2.4 Bil | 17.4% | 11 | ADD +19.2% | 13F |
| GCQ FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY Ltd | $134.6 Mil | 17.9% | 11 | ADD +9.5% | 13F |
| Skye Global Management LP | $2.0 Bil | 43.7% | 44 | ADD +8.6% | 13F |
| MBB Public Markets I LLC | $141.9 Mil | 17.0% | 24 | ADD +7.1% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egerton Capital (UK) LLP | $1.4 Bil | 14.8% | 23 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Banque Pictet & Cie SA | $1.2 Bil | 11.7% | 384 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| ValueAct Holdings, L.P. | $783.5 Mil | 11.2% | 16 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| BSN CAPITAL PARTNERS Ltd | $383.8 Mil | 30.1% | 20 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Three Seasons Wealth, LLC | $341.7 Mil | 32.6% | 199 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Maplelane Capital, LLC | $277.2 Mil | 15.8% | 138 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| RK Capital Management, LLC/FL | $202.0 Mil | 12.5% | 20 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Avantyr Capital Partners, LP | $185.7 Mil | 11.1% | 25 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Park Presidio Capital LLC | $141.3 Mil | 11.5% | 15 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Kapitalo Investimentos Ltda | $130.4 Mil | 25.0% | 35 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Quarry LP | $104.0 Mil | 17.0% | 2064 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Spear Holdings RSC Ltd | $85.0 Mil | 15.0% | 11 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| PBCay One RSC Ltd | $85.0 Mil | 15.0% | 11 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Cypress Funds LLC | $81.7 Mil | 13.5% | 14 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Criteria Caixa, S.A.U. | $64.9 Mil | 22.4% | 8 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Milestones Administradora de Recursos Ltda. | $47.2 Mil | 15.6% | 18 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Range Rock Capital, LLC | $44.8 Mil | 15.6% | 26 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Regents Gate Capital LLP | $43.8 Mil | 14.0% | 37 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Proem Advisors LLC | $36.7 Mil | 12.4% | 28 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| BlueSpruce Investments, LP | $129.1 Mil | 20.5% | 10 | TRIM -79.6% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Foxhaven Asset Management, LP | $416.3 Mil | 13.1% | 14 | TRIM -21.6% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Crow's Nest Holdings LP | $56.2 Mil | 13.1% | 11 | TRIM -18.2% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Columbus Hill Capital Management, L.P. | $66.9 Mil | 11.3% | 21 | TRIM -14.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Anomaly Capital Management, LP | $284.1 Mil | 17.2% | 21 | TRIM -8.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P. | $2.4 Bil | 17.4% | 11 | ADD +19.2% | 13F |
| Skye Global Management LP | $2.0 Bil | 43.7% | 44 | ADD +8.6% | 13F |
| Soroban Capital Partners LP | $1.7 Bil | 12.5% | 27 | New | 13F |
| Altarock Partners LP | $1.6 Bil | 38.2% | 8 | Hold | 13F |
| Appaloosa LP | $899.7 Mil | 15.2% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Brighton Jones LLC | $861.0 Mil | 36.3% | 24 | Hold | 13F |
| Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) | $576.3 Mil | 13.3% | 346 | New | 13F |
| Stockbridge Partners LLC | $515.5 Mil | 12.5% | 16 | New | 13F |
| Voyager Global Management LP | $453.0 Mil | 15.4% | 8 | ADD +20.8% | 13F |
| Crake Asset Management LLP | $438.0 Mil | 15.3% | 20 | ADD +26.4% | 13F |
| Foxhaven Asset Management, LP | $416.3 Mil | 13.1% | 14 | TRIM -21.6% | 13F |
| Third Point LLC | $404.0 Mil | 19.4% | 33 | New | 13F |
| OP Asset Management Ltd | $399.5 Mil | 22.1% | 64 | New | 13F |
| Meritage Group LP | $386.3 Mil | 14.6% | 13 | Hold | 13F |
| Standard Investments LLC | $369.3 Mil | 21.7% | 11 | ADD +6.0% | 13F |
| Anomaly Capital Management, LP | $284.1 Mil | 17.2% | 21 | TRIM -8.3% | 13F |
| Avala Global LP | $246.2 Mil | 11.8% | 22 | New | 13F |
| Consulta Ltd | $245.8 Mil | 12.2% | 13 | Hold | 13F |
| Nellore Capital Management LLC | $225.1 Mil | 28.8% | 11 | ADD +6.3% | 13F |
| Styrax Capital, LP | $208.3 Mil | 14.5% | 17 | Hold | 13F |
| Pamplona Capital Management, LLC | $182.6 Mil | 38.6% | 5 | Hold | 13F |
| B&D White Capital Company, LLC | $153.6 Mil | 19.0% | 74 | Hold | 13F |
| Strategy Capital LLC | $144.4 Mil | 11.8% | 11 | Hold | 13F |
| Alua Capital Management LP | $142.9 Mil | 15.6% | 14 | New | 13F |
| MBB Public Markets I LLC | $141.9 Mil | 17.0% | 24 | ADD +7.1% | 13F |
AMZN Trade Sentinel
Stock Conviction
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Amazon's profit engine, AWS, is in a clear hypergrowth phase, with revenue growth accelerating to 39.3% and a $578 billion backlog providing strong visibility. Management is guiding for over 40% growth in 2027 and 2028. While a massive $220 billion investment cycle is pressuring near-term cash flow, it is directly funding this validated, high-margin opportunity.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Diversified Conglomerate(Retail Units Sold * ASP) + (Third-Party GMV * Take-Rate) + (AWS Usage * Price per Unit) + (Ad Impressions * Price per Impression) + (Subscriptions * Price per Subscriber) The mix shift towards the high-margin AWS segment and operating leverage gains within the retail fulfillment network.
Looking for high-conviction positions with a better risk/reward profile? See what's currently in the
Trefis High Quality Portfolio.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests yes, as accelerating demand and a massive backlog of future revenue validate the spending.
Mechanism:
AWS is a $184 billion run-rate business growing 39.3%, with a $578 billion backlog. This funds a $220 billion capital plan to capture a market where 85% of IT spend is still on-premise, driving a mix shift to higher margins.
Supporting Evidence:
- AWS revenue growth accelerated for the sixth straight quarter to 39.3% year-over-year.
- The AWS backlog of customer commitments stands at $578 billion, growing triple-digits YoY.
- Management projects AWS can grow revenue over 40% in each of 2027 and 2028.
- The company plans cash capital expenditures of approximately $220 billion in 2026 to meet demand.
PRIMARY RISK
A capital plan of approximately $220 billion for 2026 is driving deeply negative cash flow and a rapid increase in debt, creating high execution risk if AI demand falters.
Mechanism:
Supporting Evidence:
- Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow is negative $46.9 billion.
- Net debt increased to $157.7 billion from $41.2 billion in the prior year.
- Accounts receivable grew 60.6% year-over-year, far outpacing 12.1% revenue growth.
- The company expects to spend 'meaningfully more' on capital expenditures in 2027.
Key KPI Watchlist
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| AWS Revenue Growth | 39.3% year-over-year growth in Q3 2026 - Accelerating | The growth in Amazon Web Services (AWS) has shown significant and sustained acceleration over the past year. Management attributes this to strong demand for both core cloud services and, increasingly, artificial intelligence (AI) workloads. The CEO described a "flywheel" effect where AI usage drives demand for core AWS services, creating a self-reinforcing growth cycle. |
| Worldwide Paid Units Growth | 12% year-over-year growth in Q3 2026 - Stable | The deceleration in the latest quarter is primarily due to the timing of the Prime Day sales event, which occurred in Q2 this year versus Q3 last year. This shift created a difficult year-over-year comparison. Management noted that year-to-date, units have grown nearly 15%, suggesting the underlying trend remains healthy and stable when normalizing for the event's timing. |
| AWS Backlog | $578 billion (Q3 2026) | Represents future revenue commitments for AWS, providing high visibility into the segment's future growth trajectory. Management noted it is growing triple digits year-over-year. |
| AWS Annualized Revenue Run Rate | $184 billion (Q3 2026) | Market rewards Management stated they believe AWS can be a trillion-dollar revenue business in the next five to 10 years.. Scales the current size of the AWS business, providing context for its growth and market position. |
Core Investment Debate
Strategic Investment vs. Cash Burn
BULL VIEW
The negative $46.9 billion free cash flow is a strategic investment to capture a generational AI opportunity, validated by a $578 billion AWS backlog and accelerating 39.3% growth.
CORE TENSION
Can accelerating AWS growth (39.3% YoY) and its massive backlog ($578B) generate returns fast enough to justify the negative $46.9B trailing free cash flow?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH
The latest evidence favors the bulls. The AWS backlog is growing at triple-digit rates and management raised forward guidance, suggesting the investment is meeting validated, committed demand.
BEAR VIEW
The $220 billion annual capital expenditure is a high-risk gamble. Any slowdown in AWS growth would reveal a structurally impaired cash flow model with a bloated balance sheet.
Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Q4 | Fourth Quarter 2026 Results Period Watch: Company guidance for Q4 2026 includes net sales between $240 billion and $247 billion and operating income between $28.5 billion and $33.5 billion. |
this year | Project Leo Initial Service Launch Watch: Amazon's initial commercial service for its Leo satellite network is on track to begin. |
January 1, 2027 | Seasonal Employee Healthcare Benefit Expansion Watch: Eligible seasonal employees who work at least 30 hours per week will gain access to healthcare coverage. |
1/18/2027 | Netflix Earnings Report Watch: Peer Netflix (NFLX) is scheduled to report earnings. |
1/26/2027 | Peer Cloud Earnings Signal Demand Shift Watch: Deceleration in Azure or Google Cloud revenue growth, or cautious commentary on AI workload deployment from peers. |
2/2/2027 | Alphabet Earnings Report Watch: Peer Alphabet (GOOGL) is scheduled to report earnings. |
2/3/2027 | Holiday Quarter Execution and Ad Growth Watch: Reported Q4 advertising revenue growth rate and commentary on fulfillment network performance during the peak season. |
2/3/2027 | Amazon Q4 2026 Earnings Report Watch: Amazon.com is scheduled to report its next earnings. |
No set date | Adverse Antitrust Litigation Development Watch: Court rulings on motions, announcements of settlements, or new actions from regulators like the FTC. |
November 6 | The Cat in the Hat Film Premiere Watch: Warner Bros. Pictures Animation's 'The Cat in the Hat' film premieres in theaters. |
Key Events in Last 6 Months
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-10-30 | FTC and States Sue Over Ad Practices Details: In August 2026, the Federal Trade Commission and 22 state Attorneys General filed a complaint alleging misrepresentations and unfair business practices involving reserve prices in sponsored ad auctions. | -1.4% $243.79 -> $240.35 |
2026-10-29 | Q3 Earnings Report and Guidance Update Details: Amazon reported Q3 results on October 29, 2026. The company issued new, higher guidance for Q4 Net Sales and Operating Income. The stock had a negative two-day reaction of -6.0%. | -5.6% $254.60 -> $240.35 |
2026-10-01 | Court Recommends E-Book Class Certification Details: A magistrate judge recommended that a proposed class of more than 30 million consumers who purchased e-books via Amazon should be certified in an ongoing antitrust lawsuit. | +1.0% $249.15 -> $251.52 |
2026-09-21 | Major Investments in Labor and Logistics Details: In September 2026, Amazon announced it was raising minimum starting pay for core operations employees and would invest another $1.9 billion in its Delivery Service Partner program in 2027. | +0.5% $253.71 -> $254.98 |
2026-07-30 | Strong Q2 Results and Stock Reaction Details: Following the Q2 earnings report, the stock had a two-day reaction of +20.0% versus +2.0% for the S&P 500. | +19.8% $226.65 -> $271.58 |
2026-06-08 | Prime Day Shifts to Q2 Details: The company's Prime Day sales event moved into June for Q2 2026, pulling billions in sales forward from Q3 and impacting quarterly growth comparisons. | -0.7% $246.03 -> $244.19 |
2026-05-21 | Analyst Highlights Alexa for Shopping Details: According to a May analyst note, the AI-powered Alexa for Shopping platform was seen as a potential major long-term growth driver for the retail business. | +0.5% $265.01 -> $266.32 |
Risk Management
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: AMZN trades at roughly 30% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 10% for the S&P 500 (2.9x the market). A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
MSFT - Microsoft
Enterprise Cloud PlayMicrosoft has deeper enterprise software integration and superior corporate operating margins of 47.1%, offering a more profitable, established path to capturing corporate IT budgets.
Core Thesis: Microsoft's Azure growth is accelerating, driven by its strong position in enterprise AI and its existing software footprint.
GOOGL - Alphabet
AI Infrastructure ChallengerAlphabet's Google Cloud reported faster revenue growth of 103% in the recent quarter, signaling aggressive momentum and a strong position in AI infrastructure and solutions.
Core Thesis: Google Cloud is rapidly gaining share in the AI market, leveraging its proprietary technology and infrastructure.
How Is The Market Pricing AMZN?
Amazon is a dual-engine growth story where a hyper-scaling, high-margin AI and cloud business (AWS) provides the capital and technology to fuel an increasingly efficient, fast-growing global retail and logistics network.
AWS is experiencing a massive demand cycle driven by AI, with growth accelerating for six consecutive quarters and a backlog of over half a trillion dollars. This high-margin growth engine is funding a capital-intensive buildout that management believes will yield a trillion-dollar business. Simultaneously, the retail segments are demonstrating operating leverage, expanding margins and delivery speeds, and capturing share in key categories like groceries and everyday essentials.
What will confirm the thesis
Continued acceleration in AWS revenue growth, expansion of the AWS backlog, and sustained or improving operating margins in the North America and International segments.
What will damage the thesis
A deceleration in AWS growth, a stall in backlog growth, or a reversal of margin improvement in the retail segments, indicating a loss of operating leverage or increased competitive pressure.
Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis
Short-term fluctuations in retail sales due to seasonality or the timing of events like Prime Day, which management noted can create timing anomalies.
Repricing Catalyst
The market's recognition of the scale and acceleration of the AI-driven demand for AWS, supported by management's projection for 40%+ growth in 2027 and 2028 and a path to a trillion-dollar revenue business.
What AMZN Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on the twelve months through fiscal Q2 2026
North America
$453.7B TTM (58% of Total) · 7% MarginWhat It Is
This segment consists of retail sales of consumer products (including from third-party sellers), advertising, and subscription services through online and physical stores focused on North America.
Who Pays & How
Consumers pay for products and Prime subscriptions, seeking selection, low prices, and fast delivery. Third-party sellers and vendors pay for fulfillment and advertising services to grow their businesses and reach Amazon's customer base.
Transactional product sales, recurring subscription fees (Prime), and fees for seller services (commissions, fulfillment, shipping) and advertising.
Competition
Physical, e-commerce, and omnichannel retailers, as stated in company filings.
Competitors may have greater resources, longer histories, more customers, and greater brand recognition.
The principal competitive factors are selection, price, and convenience, including fast and reliable fulfillment.
International
$173.6B TTM (22% of Total) · 3% MarginWhat It Is
This segment consists of retail sales of consumer products (including from third-party sellers), advertising, and subscription services through internationally-focused online stores.
Who Pays & How
International consumers, sellers, and advertisers pay for the same reasons as in North America: a wide selection of goods with convenient delivery, and access to a large customer base for selling and advertising.
Transactional product sales, recurring subscription fees (Prime), and fees for seller services and advertising.
Competition
Local companies in international markets, as stated in company filings.
Local companies may have a substantial competitive advantage due to a greater understanding of the local customer and more established local brand names.
Focus on price, selection, and convenience, including fast shipping offers.
Amazon Web Services (AWS)
$148.4B TTM (19% of Total) · 37% MarginWhat It Is
This segment provides a broad set of on-demand technology services, including compute, storage, database, analytics, and AI/machine learning, to developers, start-ups, enterprises, government agencies, and academic institutions.
Who Pays & How
Enterprises, government agencies, and developers pay for cloud infrastructure to run their applications and store data. They choose AWS for its leading functionality, security, operational performance, and because they prefer their AI workloads to be near their other data and applications.
Primarily usage-based consumption (e.g., compute capacity delivered on-demand), with some services offered as a fixed quantity over a specified term for which revenue is recognized ratably.
Competition
Companies that provide information technology services or products, including on-premises or cloud-based infrastructure, as stated in company filings.
A flywheel effect where leading functionality drives customer adoption, which drives AI demand, which in turn drives core AWS demand and further reinvestment. Custom silicon like Graviton and Trainium provides a price-performance advantage.
AMZN Evolution: Price Return by Era
2021-2025 · AWS Becomes the Profit Center
+45%
Over the past five years, AWS has solidified its role as Amazon's primary profit driver. While North America and International retail revenues grew substantially, their combined operating income was volatile, even negative in 2022. In contrast, AWS revenue grew substantially from $62.202 billion in 2021, while its operating income more than doubled from $18.532 billion to $45.606 billion by 2025, consistently providing the majority of the company's total profit.
2025-2026 · The AI-Driven Acceleration
+11%
Beginning in 2025 and accelerating through 2026, demand for AI services has become a primary growth catalyst for AWS. Management commentary from the Q3 2026 earnings call highlights that AWS growth accelerated for the sixth straight quarter to 39.3%, its fastest in nearly five years, driven by AI demand which in turn pulls through core cloud services. This has prompted a massive capital expenditure cycle, with the company expecting to spend approximately $220 billion in 2026, primarily for AWS, to meet this demand.
Market Appears To Be Skeptical Of Core Thesis
Price structure is in a downtrend. Multiple SMA levels broken and declining. Thesis requires reclaiming 200D before any bull case is credible. Relative to SPY: Lagging the market on the 63D window, but 'relative strength' is beginning to stabilize; watch for inflection. Volume and momentum are deeply bearish. The sustained distribution is evident across multiple volume metrics. Earnings history is mildly supportive. The reaction or drift are positive but not both at full conviction.
① Structure
-3
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
-3
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
+1
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
-5 / 12
1
Price Structure & Trend
Broken In Short Term · -
▾
2
Momentum
Deteriorating
▾
3
Relative Strength vs. SPY
Mild Underperformance
▾
4
Institutional Footprint & Volume
Mild Distribution
▾
5
Volatility
Normal
▾
6
Key Price Levels
Range · Vol Rising
▾
7
Earnings Reaction History
Inconsistent
▾
8
How the Verdict Is Derived
Three Pillars
▾
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Broadline Retail Resources |
| Chain Store Age |
| RetailWire |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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Core Cache Last Updated: 10/31/2026