Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

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Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.5%, FCF Yield is 8.6%

Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 61%

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, CFO LTM is 2.3 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.2 Bil

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 24%

Uninsured deposits are low
Uninsured Deposits Ratio %Fraction of deposits that exceed the insurance deposit thresholds. For example, the FDIC protects deposits up to $250K. A high uninsured deposits ratio indicates large accounts and greater potential exposure to bank run risk. is 17%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, Digital Payments, Show more.

Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -0.6%, Dist 3Y High is -0.6%

Moderate capital ratio
Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 7.3%

Key risks
KEY key risks include [1] potential for increased loan losses due to its specific portfolio exposure to the energy and healthcare sectors.

0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.5%, FCF Yield is 8.6%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 61%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, CFO LTM is 2.3 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.2 Bil
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 24%
4 Uninsured deposits are low
Uninsured Deposits Ratio %Fraction of deposits that exceed the insurance deposit thresholds. For example, the FDIC protects deposits up to $250K. A high uninsured deposits ratio indicates large accounts and greater potential exposure to bank run risk. is 17%
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, and AI in Financial Services. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, Digital Payments, Show more.
6 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -0.6%, Dist 3Y High is -0.6%
7 Moderate capital ratio
Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 7.3%
8 Key risks
KEY key risks include [1] potential for increased loan losses due to its specific portfolio exposure to the energy and healthcare sectors.

KEY in ETFs

Weight = KEY's share of each fund

SPY0.03%
VOO0.03%
IVV0.03%
VTI0.03%
ITOT0.03%
IWB0.03%
RSP0.20%
VTV0.09%
+23 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 7/1/2026

KeyCorp (KEY) stock has gained about 15% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Strong Q1 2026 Earnings Beat and Upgraded Financial Outlook. KeyCorp reported robust financial results for its first fiscal quarter of 2026 (ending March 31, 2026), with earnings per share (EPS) of $0.44, surpassing analysts' consensus estimates of $0.41 by 7.32%. This positive performance was accompanied by a 10.2% year-over-year increase in quarterly revenue to $1.95 billion, exceeding the $1.93 billion consensus. Following these results, KeyCorp raised its full-year 2026 taxable-equivalent net interest income (NII) growth guidance to 9-10% (up from a prior 8-10%) and lifted average loan growth expectations to 2-4% (from a prior 1-2%). The net interest margin (NIM) also expanded to 2.87% in fiscal Q1 2026, with management guiding to exceed 3% by year-end.

2. Robust Capital Position and Enhanced Shareholder Returns. KeyCorp demonstrated a strong capital position, reporting a Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 11.4% as of March 31, 2026. The company also significantly increased its commitment to shareholder returns by repurchasing nearly $400 million of common stock in fiscal Q1 2026 and announcing plans to repurchase at least $1.3 billion in shares for the full year 2026, an increase from its previous guidance of $1.2 billion. This indicates confidence in its financial strength and a commitment to delivering value to shareholders.

Show more
Updated on 7/1/2026

KeyCorp (KEY) stock has gained about 15% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Strong Q1 2026 Earnings Beat and Upgraded Financial Outlook. KeyCorp reported robust financial results for its first fiscal quarter of 2026 (ending March 31, 2026), with earnings per share (EPS) of $0.44, surpassing analysts' consensus estimates of $0.41 by 7.32%. This positive performance was accompanied by a 10.2% year-over-year increase in quarterly revenue to $1.95 billion, exceeding the $1.93 billion consensus. Following these results, KeyCorp raised its full-year 2026 taxable-equivalent net interest income (NII) growth guidance to 9-10% (up from a prior 8-10%) and lifted average loan growth expectations to 2-4% (from a prior 1-2%). The net interest margin (NIM) also expanded to 2.87% in fiscal Q1 2026, with management guiding to exceed 3% by year-end.

2. Robust Capital Position and Enhanced Shareholder Returns. KeyCorp demonstrated a strong capital position, reporting a Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 11.4% as of March 31, 2026. The company also significantly increased its commitment to shareholder returns by repurchasing nearly $400 million of common stock in fiscal Q1 2026 and announcing plans to repurchase at least $1.3 billion in shares for the full year 2026, an increase from its previous guidance of $1.2 billion. This indicates confidence in its financial strength and a commitment to delivering value to shareholders.

3. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Credit Rating Upgrade. The company received a significant boost in sentiment when S&P Global Ratings revised its outlook on KeyCorp to positive from stable in June 2026, while affirming its 'BBB' long-term issuer credit rating. S&P cited meaningful business and financial improvements, including better profitability metrics, more conservative risk management policies, and substantially higher capital ratios. This positive rating action, coupled with several analysts reiterating or upgrading their ratings and price targets following the Q1 earnings report, contributed to increased investor confidence.

4. Strategic Investment from Bank of Nova Scotia. In March 2026, Bank of Nova Scotia filed to increase its ownership stake in KeyCorp from 14.99% to as much as 19.99%, pending regulatory approval. This strategic interest from a major financial institution, building on an initial $2.8 billion investment made in 2024, signaled strong external validation and confidence in KeyCorp's long-term prospects.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 17.4% change in KEY stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/14/2026 was primarily driven by a 9.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)33120267142026Change
Stock Price ($)19.8523.3017.4%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)7,2857,4702.5%
Net Income Margin (%)25.1%26.1%3.8%
P/E Multiple11.913.09.2%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1,0961,0841.1%
Cumulative Contribution17.4%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2026 to 7/14/2026
ReturnCorrelation
KEY17.4% 
Market (SPY)15.6%28.2%
Sector (XLF)13.8%68.9%

Fundamental Drivers

The 15.1% change in KEY stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/14/2026 was primarily driven by a 48.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)123120257142026Change
Stock Price ($)20.2423.3015.1%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)6,1457,47021.6%
Net Income Margin (%)17.5%26.1%48.9%
P/E Multiple20.713.0-37.4%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1,1011,0841.5%
Cumulative Contribution15.1%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

12/31/2025 to 7/14/2026
ReturnCorrelation
KEY15.1% 
Market (SPY)10.6%43.0%
Sector (XLF)3.1%75.2%

Fundamental Drivers

The 39.4% change in KEY stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/14/2026 was primarily driven by a 4734.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)63020257142026Change
Stock Price ($)16.7123.3039.4%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)4,6397,47061.0%
Net Income Margin (%)0.5%26.1%4734.0%
P/E Multiple733.113.0-98.2%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1,0971,0841.1%
Cumulative Contribution39.4%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/30/2025 to 7/14/2026
ReturnCorrelation
KEY39.4% 
Market (SPY)22.7%44.4%
Sector (XLF)8.6%71.6%

Fundamental Drivers

The 194.3% change in KEY stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/14/2026 was primarily driven by a 215.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)63020237142026Change
Stock Price ($)7.9223.30194.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)7,0517,4705.9%
Net Income Margin (%)25.3%26.1%3.1%
P/E Multiple4.113.0215.3%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)9261,084-14.6%
Cumulative Contribution194.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/30/2023 to 7/14/2026
ReturnCorrelation
KEY194.3% 
Market (SPY)75.6%53.7%
Sector (XLF)74.1%71.5%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
KEY Return46%-22%-12%25%26%15%84%
Peers Return36%-18%1%26%15%16%89%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%10%100%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
KEY Win Rate75%50%33%58%58%57% 
Peers Win Rate68%47%47%60%55%57% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%57% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
KEY Max Drawdown-21%-41%-55%-15%-27%-18% 
Peers Max Drawdown-16%-35%-40%-13%-27%-19% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: PNC, USB, TFC, FITB, HBAN. See KEY Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/14/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventKEYS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-25.7%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven34.6%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven84 days79 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-14.0%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven16.2%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven21 days24 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-54.0%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven117.6%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven531 days31 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-32.0%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven47.0%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven1150 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-58.2%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven139.1%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven300 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-30.7%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven44.4%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven319 days105 days

Compare to PNC, USB, TFC, FITB, HBAN

In The Past

KeyCorp's stock fell -25.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 34.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventKEYS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-25.7%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven34.6%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven84 days79 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-54.0%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven117.6%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven531 days31 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-32.0%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven47.0%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven1150 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-58.2%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven139.1%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven300 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-30.7%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven44.4%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven319 days105 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-31.4%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven45.9%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven270 days62 days
2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse
  % Loss-24.6%-6.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven32.7%7.3%
  Time to Breakeven252 days15 days
2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion
  % Loss-31.8%-17.9%
  % Gain to Breakeven46.6%21.8%
  Time to Breakeven173 days123 days
2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis
  % Loss-76.3%-53.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven321.7%114.4%
  Time to Breakeven3210 days1085 days

Compare to PNC, USB, TFC, FITB, HBAN

In The Past

KeyCorp's stock fell -25.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 34.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About KeyCorp (KEY)

KeyCorp (KEY) is a diversified regional financial services company primarily operating through its subsidiary, KeyBank National Association. It provides a comprehensive range of retail and commercial banking products and services across 15 states in the United States. The company leverages a network of branches, ATMs, and digital platforms to serve its diverse client base.

The company's Consumer Bank segment caters to individuals and small to medium-sized businesses. This segment offers core banking services such as checking and savings accounts, personal loans, mortgages, home equity lines, and credit cards. Additionally, it provides wealth management, investment products, student loan refinancing, and financial advisory services to help clients manage their personal finances and investments.

KeyCorp's Commercial Bank segment focuses on middle market clients, offering a suite of sophisticated banking and capital market products. These include syndicated finance, debt and equity capital market products, commercial payments, equipment finance, and commercial mortgage banking. The company also provides specialized lending for various sectors like energy, healthcare, and real estate, alongside financial advisory, securities underwriting, and investment banking services to meet the complex financial needs of its business customers.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe KeyCorp (KEY):

  • It's like a regional JPMorgan Chase, providing a broad spectrum of consumer and commercial banking, wealth management, and capital markets services across 15 states.
  • Think of it as a Wells Fargo operating primarily in the Midwest and parts of the East Coast, offering extensive banking solutions for individuals and businesses.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Deposits: Core banking products including checking, savings, and money market accounts for individuals and businesses.
  • Lending Services: Offers a diverse portfolio of loans such as consumer mortgages, home equity, student loans, credit cards, and commercial loans including syndicated finance, equipment finance, and commercial mortgages.
  • Wealth & Investment Management: Provides comprehensive services including wealth management, asset management, portfolio management, investment products, and trust services.
  • Capital Markets & Advisory Services: Engages in debt and equity capital market products, securities underwriting, brokerage, investment banking, financial advisory, public finance, derivatives, and foreign exchange.
  • Business & Treasury Solutions: Delivers cash management, commercial payment solutions, and treasury services for various business sizes.

AI Analysis | Feedback

KeyCorp (KEY) primarily serves a diverse base of customers rather than a few major identifiable companies. Based on its operations, its customers can be categorized as follows:

  1. Individuals: KeyCorp offers a wide array of personal banking products and services including deposits, personal finance, financial wellness, student loan refinancing, mortgages, home equity, lending, credit cards, wealth management, asset management, and trust services.
  2. Small and Medium-sized Businesses: The company provides banking, treasury, business advisory, investment, cash management, and portfolio management services to this segment.
  3. Middle Market Clients: KeyCorp serves larger businesses with a suite of banking and capital market products, such as syndicated finance, debt and equity capital market products, commercial payments, equipment finance, commercial mortgage banking, derivatives, foreign exchange, financial advisory, and public finance. This segment includes clients in sectors like consumer, energy, healthcare, industrial, public sector, real estate, and technology.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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AI Analysis | Feedback

Christopher M. Gorman is the Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President of KeyCorp, a position he assumed on May 1, 2020. He has been a director since 2019. Gorman has over 30 years of experience in financial services and has held various leadership roles at KeyCorp, including Chief Operating Officer (2019-2020) and President of Banking (2017-2019). He was responsible for leading Key's integration of First Niagara Financial Group, the largest acquisition in Key's history. Earlier in his career, he led KeyBanc Capital Markets and held various leadership roles at McDonald Investments, a registered broker-dealer acquired by KeyCorp in 1998. Clark H. I. Khayat is KeyCorp's Chief Financial Officer (CFO) since March 2023 and has been an executive officer since 2018. He previously served as Chief Strategy Officer for KeyCorp (2018–2023) and as Head of Enterprise Commercial Payments (2014–2016). Khayat's background spans business, law, consulting, and investment banking. He was co-founder and managing director of Occom Ridge Partners, LLC, a strategic advisory firm. Earlier in his career, he was Senior Controller of Personal Lines for the Progressive Corporation and held senior leadership roles in strategy and finance at National City Corporation (now PNC), where he led Corporate Finance and Strategy and Corporate Planning. He was also an Engagement Manager at McKinsey & Company. Khayat has served as a board member for BuyerQuest, a SaaS company, and as a Board Observer at AvidXchange and InstaMed, also SaaS companies. He also served on the board of the Payment Company of The Clearinghouse. Victor B. Alexander is the Head of Consumer Banking at KeyCorp. In this role, he oversees retail, consumer lending and deposits, business banking, small business, home lending, and wealth management. Alexander joined KeyCorp in 2000 and has held various leadership positions. He served as Corporate Treasurer for KeyCorp from 2017 through 2018. Previously, he led Key's Corporate Strategy team, overseeing corporate strategy, mergers and acquisitions, and strategic investments. Under his leadership, the Corporate Strategy team was central to Key's 2016 acquisition of First Niagara Financial Group. Andrew J. Paine III serves as the Head of Institutional Banking at KeyCorp. Amy G. Brady is the Chief Information Officer (CIO) for KeyCorp, leading the company's Technology, Operations and Services organization. She oversees shared services for technology, operations, data, servicing, cyber and physical security, and procurement. Brady joined KeyCorp in 2012. Prior to KeyCorp, she spent 25 years at Bank of America, including serving as Chief Information Officer, Enterprise Technology and Operations. She began her banking career in branch banking at Bank of America in 1987. While she resigned from her CIO role on March 2, 2026, due to personal health considerations, she will remain employed as a non-executive employee through May 31, 2026, to assist with the transition of her duties.

AI Analysis | Feedback

KeyCorp (KEY) faces several significant risks to its business operations:

Key Risks to KeyCorp (KEY)

  1. Credit Risk and Asset Quality Deterioration: KeyCorp has significant exposure to various credit segments, particularly Commercial Real Estate (CRE) and consumer lending categories. A rise in nonperforming assets or a shift towards lower-quality loans could lead to increased loan loss provisions, negatively affecting profitability and valuation. Ongoing credit quality trends, especially in CRE and construction loans, are closely monitored and can materially impact future earnings and capital levels.
  2. Interest Rate Risk and Net Interest Income Pressure: The company's profitability has been pressured by rising funding costs and its balance sheet positioning in a higher interest rate environment. This can lead to a decline in net interest income (NII) and a low net interest margin (NIM), indicating weaker loan book profitability and potentially requiring increased loan originations to compensate.
  3. Liquidity Risk: KeyCorp highlights liquidity risk, which encompasses challenges related to funding availability, regulatory constraints, deposit withdrawals, access to market funding, and refinancing risk. Maintaining sufficient liquidity is crucial for the bank's stability and operations.

AI Analysis | Feedback

There are several clear emerging threats for KeyCorp:

  • Fintech Disruption: The rise of digital-only banks (neo-banks, challenger banks) and specialized fintech companies offering services like deposits, lending, and payments. These entities often provide more user-friendly digital experiences, lower fees, and sometimes higher interest rates, directly competing with KeyCorp's Consumer Bank by attracting customers away from traditional branch-based banking models.
  • Big Tech Entry into Financial Services: Large technology companies (e.g., Apple, Google, Amazon) are increasingly expanding their offerings into financial services, leveraging their vast customer bases, data analytics, and robust digital platforms. Their entry into areas like payments, lending, and potentially broader banking services could siphon off customers and transaction volume that KeyCorp currently serves.

AI Analysis | Feedback

For KeyCorp (symbol: KEY), the addressable markets for its main products and services in the United States are sizable, reflecting the broad scope of its banking and financial offerings.

Consumer Bank Segment (U.S. Region)

  • Retail Banking: The U.S. retail banking market was valued at approximately USD 870 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to about USD 1.11 trillion by 2031, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.17%. Another estimate places the U.S. retail banking market at USD 0.87 trillion in 2025, with a forecast to reach USD 1.08 trillion by 2030 (CAGR of 4.22%).
  • Mortgage and Home Equity: The U.S. home mortgage market size was valued at approximately USD 180.91 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow to around USD 501.67 billion by 2032, exhibiting a CAGR of roughly 12.00% between 2024 and 2032. Furthermore, total single-family mortgage origination volume is expected to increase to USD 2.0 trillion in 2025 and further to USD 2.2 trillion in 2026.
  • Credit Card: The U.S. credit card market size was around USD 190 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 388.4 billion by 2032, at a CAGR of 9.5% during 2025–2032. Another report estimates the U.S. credit card payments market size at USD 187.45 billion in 2024, projected to reach approximately USD 441.56 billion by 2034. As of the first quarter of 2024, Americans held a total balance of USD 1.12 trillion across their credit cards.
  • Student Loan Refinancing: The total student loan debt in the United States reached approximately USD 1.833 trillion as of February 2026. Federal student loans comprise about USD 1.693 trillion of this amount, while private student loan debt was approximately USD 133.4 billion as of Q1 2024.

Commercial Bank Segment (U.S. Region)

  • Commercial Banking: The U.S. commercial banking market size is estimated at USD 732.5 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 915.45 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 4.56%. Another source indicates the market size to be USD 765.53 billion in 2026, with a projection to reach USD 954.48 billion by 2031.
  • Wealth Management: The U.S. private banking market, a component of wealth management, is valued at USD 59.54 billion in 2025 and is expected to grow to USD 94.89 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 9.77%. Additionally, robo-advisors in the U.S. managed over USD 1 trillion in assets as of 2025, with forecasts predicting this figure could approach USD 2 trillion in the near future.
  • Investment Banking Services: The U.S. investment banking market is estimated at USD 54.74 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 66.15 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 3.86%. Other estimates for the U.S. investment banking market size range from approximately USD 129.13 billion in 2025, with a projection to reach USD 301.52 billion by 2035. In terms of activity, the total value of M&A transactions in the U.S. is projected to reach approximately USD 1 trillion in 2025.

AI Analysis | Feedback

KeyCorp (KEY) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several strategic initiatives:

  1. Net Interest Income (NII) and Net Interest Margin (NIM) Expansion: KeyCorp anticipates continued growth in Net Interest Income and expansion of its Net Interest Margin. This is expected to be fueled by ongoing balance sheet optimization, which includes managing deposit costs effectively and remixing its loan portfolio towards higher-yielding commercial assets. Management projects the net interest margin to reach 3.00-3.05% by the fourth quarter of 2026 and above 3.25% by the fourth quarter of 2027.
  2. Growth in Fee-Based Businesses: The company is focused on expanding its fee-based segments, including investment banking, wealth management, and commercial payments. KeyCorp expects mid-to-high single-digit growth in these areas, supported by a healthy deal pipeline, anticipated improvements in middle-market M&A activity, and successful scaling through recent banker hires and platform expansions. Specifically, investment banking fees are projected to grow by about 5%, wealth fees in the high single digits, and commercial payment fees in the low double digits in 2026.
  3. Strategic Investments in Talent and Technology: KeyCorp has been making significant investments in its front-line banker staff and technology, including digital capabilities and artificial intelligence. These investments are aimed at fueling organic growth, enhancing client experience, and improving operating efficiency. The increased productivity from these new hires is expected to contribute meaningfully to revenue growth, typically after a 12 to 18-month ramp-up period.
  4. Commercial Loan Growth and Portfolio Optimization: The company plans for average loan growth, with a particular emphasis on commercial loans, which are projected to increase by approximately 5% in 2026. This strategy involves prioritizing commercial and industrial (C&I) lending and continuing to shift the loan portfolio away from lower-yielding consumer loans towards higher-yielding commercial assets.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Share Repurchases

  • KeyCorp's Board of Directors authorized a new share repurchase program of up to $1.0 billion in March 2025, which began in the second half of 2025.
  • The company repurchased $200 million worth of stock in the fourth quarter of 2025.
  • As of December 31, 2025, approximately $0.8 billion remained available under the authorized program, with management intending to repurchase around $1.2 billion in 2026.

Share Issuance

  • In 2024, KeyCorp issued common shares totaling approximately $2.8 billion through a strategic minority investment by The Bank of Nova Scotia (Scotiabank).
  • This investment was completed in two tranches: an initial purchase of approximately $0.8 billion for a 4.9% stake on August 30, 2024, and a second phase amounting to $2.0 billion completed on December 27, 2024, increasing Scotiabank's total ownership to 14.9%.

Inbound Investments

  • A significant inbound investment was the approximately $2.8 billion strategic minority investment made by Scotiabank in KeyCorp during 2024.
  • This investment aimed to strengthen KeyCorp's capital position and explore new opportunities in areas such as investment banking, wealth management, and payments.

Outbound Investments

  • KeyCorp focuses on acquiring niche, entrepreneurial businesses to enhance its fee-based income.
  • KeyBank's most recent acquisition was GradFin in May 2022, a lending platform for refinancing employee education loans.
  • Other acquisitions in the 2021-2022 period include XUP Payments (November 2021) and AQN Strategies (March 2021), though the dollar amounts were undisclosed.

Capital Expenditures

  • KeyCorp invested $45.0 million in capital expenditures in Q4 2025.
  • The company has made continued investments in technology and talent, including an additional $100 million in technology with a focus on customer-facing digital capabilities and AI in Q4 2025, and increased its frontline banker staff by nearly 10%.
  • In 2023, KeyCorp's investments primarily targeted people and technology, concentrating on growth opportunities in Wealth Management, Payments, and Investment Banking.

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

KEYPNCUSBTFCFITBHBANMedian
NameKeyCorp PNC Fina.U.S. Ban.Truist F.Fifth Th.Huntingt. 
Mkt Price23.30251.8862.1451.9557.0517.8554.50
Mkt Cap25.3102.096.664.947.133.456.0
Rev LTM7,47023,78728,87220,5729,4618,78415,016
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM2,1776,8219,6185,6721,4372,1563,924
FCF 3Y Avg1,5647,4769,4045,6982,5832,2404,140
CFO LTM2,2866,8219,6185,6722,1752,4934,082
CFO 3Y Avg1,6657,4769,4045,6983,1402,4564,419

Growth & Margins

KEYPNCUSBTFCFITBHBANMedian
NameKeyCorp PNC Fina.U.S. Ban.Truist F.Fifth Th.Huntingt. 
Rev Chg LTM61.0%12.7%4.7%54.0%13.9%16.3%15.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg7.8%2.9%3.9%6.8%3.9%5.6%4.8%
Rev Chg Q10.7%13.0%4.8%5.2%30.3%34.0%11.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.5%3.1%1.2%1.2%7.3%8.0%2.8%
Op Inc Chg LTM-------
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg-------
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM30.6%28.7%33.3%27.6%23.0%28.4%28.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg25.4%34.2%33.6%31.7%36.7%31.5%32.7%
FCF/Rev LTM29.1%28.7%33.3%27.6%15.2%24.5%28.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg23.8%34.2%33.6%31.7%30.4%28.9%31.1%

Valuation

KEYPNCUSBTFCFITBHBANMedian
NameKeyCorp PNC Fina.U.S. Ban.Truist F.Fifth Th.Huntingt. 
Mkt Cap25.3102.096.664.947.133.456.0
P/S3.44.33.33.25.03.83.6
P/Op Inc-------
P/EBIT-------
P/E13.014.112.411.721.715.113.6
P/CFO11.115.010.011.421.613.412.4
Total Yield7.7%9.7%11.4%12.6%4.6%9.4%9.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.6%3.3%4.1%0.0%2.8%2.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg9.0%10.5%13.1%10.5%9.4%9.8%10.2%
D/E0.70.70.81.10.40.70.7
Net D/E0.00.3-0.60.4-1.0-0.1-0.0

Returns

KEYPNCUSBTFCFITBHBANMedian
NameKeyCorp PNC Fina.U.S. Ban.Truist F.Fifth Th.Huntingt. 
1M Rtn2.6%6.0%6.3%0.6%5.0%2.8%3.9%
3M Rtn8.8%13.9%11.7%6.0%15.4%8.6%10.3%
6M Rtn14.0%20.4%17.1%6.7%20.5%4.0%15.6%
12M Rtn32.3%31.9%37.3%18.9%34.8%8.5%32.1%
3Y Rtn167.7%122.0%101.0%83.1%136.8%80.3%111.5%
1M Excs Rtn2.3%5.6%6.7%0.5%5.5%2.6%4.1%
3M Excs Rtn-1.2%3.4%1.4%-4.6%5.7%-1.2%0.1%
6M Excs Rtn3.9%9.3%6.4%-3.5%9.4%-8.5%5.1%
12M Excs Rtn12.0%11.6%16.6%-1.0%14.3%-14.0%11.8%
3Y Excs Rtn112.1%53.5%40.2%18.7%68.2%14.8%46.8%

Comparison Analyses

null

FDIC Bank Data

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Commercial Bank4,0393,4343,2973,4633,640
Consumer Bank3,6663,1703,1573,4043,426
Other-192-1,985-41405226
Total7,5134,6196,4137,2727,292


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20152014201320122003
Key Corporate Bank742815733767 
Key Community Bank407438317133 
Other Segments126212341334 
Reconciling Items-259132135 
Consumer Banking    425
Corporate & Investment Banking    394
Investment Management Services    97
Total1,2501,5561,4231,369916


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Commercial Bank1,4471,0918851,1441,642
Consumer Bank527251202365876
Other-145-1,503-120408107
Total1,829-1619671,9172,625


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Commercial Bank78,83377,78285,54280,06870,051
Other69,17167,42061,49261,40466,231
Consumer Bank38,76041,61344,59344,41442,637
Total186,764186,815191,627185,886178,919


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$23.30 
Market Cap ($ Bil)25.3 
First Trading Date11/05/1987 
Distance from 52W High-0.6% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$22.05$20.20
DMA Trendupup
Distance from DMA5.7%15.3%
 3M1YR
Volatility21.0%23.8%
Downside Capture44.0279.45
Upside Capture64.5194.22
Correlation (SPY)18.3%44.5%
KEY Betas & Captures as of 6/30/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta0.060.210.470.720.831.17
Up Beta-0.790.100.710.790.891.20
Down Beta0.28-0.16-0.160.360.781.20
Up Capture76%50%69%84%91%197%
Bmk +ve Days11244067140429
Stock +ve Days12203362132388
Down Capture-26%27%30%80%78%101%
Bmk -ve Days10172358112321
Stock -ve Days9213063119350

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with KEY
KEY32.6%23.8%1.12-
Sector ETF (XLF)9.0%14.7%0.3772.2%
Equity (SPY)21.7%12.6%1.2844.4%
Gold (GLD)20.5%27.9%0.659.0%
Commodities (DBC)27.3%18.9%1.14-11.7%
Real Estate (VNQ)13.0%13.9%0.6440.0%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-47.0%42.7%-1.3725.2%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with KEY
KEY8.2%37.8%0.30-
Sector ETF (XLF)10.9%18.6%0.4674.8%
Equity (SPY)13.1%17.1%0.5954.9%
Gold (GLD)17.2%18.4%0.76-1.2%
Commodities (DBC)8.6%19.5%0.3315.0%
Real Estate (VNQ)2.7%18.9%0.0446.9%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)12.8%53.4%0.4218.0%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with KEY
KEY12.4%39.6%0.43-
Sector ETF (XLF)13.8%22.1%0.5782.7%
Equity (SPY)15.4%17.9%0.7361.7%
Gold (GLD)11.2%16.1%0.57-6.2%
Commodities (DBC)6.3%18.0%0.2724.8%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.0%20.7%0.2152.9%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)57.3%66.2%0.9713.9%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date6302026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity31.0 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 6152026-15.4%
Average Daily Volume12.0 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.6 days
Basic Shares Quantity1,084.3 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares2.9%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 6/3/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
4/16/20260.5%2.2%-2.3%
1/20/2026-0.4%0.6%3.6%
10/16/2025-5.4%-1.5%-0.6%
7/22/20252.4%0.9%-0.7%
4/17/20251.4%5.7%18.2%
1/21/2025-3.6%-3.5%-1.5%
10/17/2024-2.5%-3.5%8.1%
7/18/2024-4.0%-2.6%-0.1%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive71115
# Negative17139
Median Positive1.4%4.3%9.3%
Median Negative-2.8%-3.4%-1.5%
Max Positive4.1%8.9%18.6%
Max Negative-5.4%-14.7%-18.8%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
4/16/20260.5%2.2%-2.3%
1/20/2026-0.4%0.6%3.6%
10/16/2025-5.4%-1.5%-0.6%
7/22/20252.4%0.9%-0.7%
4/17/20251.4%5.7%18.2%
1/21/2025-3.6%-3.5%-1.5%
10/17/2024-2.5%-3.5%8.1%
7/18/2024-4.0%-2.6%-0.1%
4/18/2024-0.3%3.5%6.2%
1/18/2024-4.6%4.3%2.6%
10/19/2023-1.1%-8.1%13.1%
7/20/20234.1%8.9%-5.5%
4/20/2023-2.7%-14.7%-18.8%
1/19/2023-4.6%6.3%10.7%
10/20/2022-3.9%7.3%13.2%
7/21/20220.7%-0.7%8.3%
4/21/2022-3.1%-8.7%-15.6%
1/20/2022-1.8%-1.4%0.5%
10/21/20210.3%-1.8%-0.2%
7/20/20213.3%4.7%9.3%
4/20/2021-2.8%4.2%12.9%
1/21/2021-0.8%-8.6%10.2%
10/21/2020-5.0%-3.4%18.6%
7/22/2020-1.4%-1.2%0.2%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive71115
# Negative17139
Median Positive1.4%4.3%9.3%
Median Negative-2.8%-3.4%-1.5%
Max Positive4.1%8.9%18.6%
Max Negative-5.4%-14.7%-18.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
03/31/202605/05/202610-Q
12/31/202502/23/202610-K
09/30/202511/04/202510-Q
06/30/202508/05/202510-Q
03/31/202505/06/202510-Q
12/31/202402/21/202510-K
09/30/202411/06/202410-Q
06/30/202407/26/202410-Q
03/31/202405/02/202410-Q
12/31/202302/22/202410-K
09/30/202311/02/202310-Q
06/30/202308/02/202310-Q
03/31/202305/04/202310-Q
12/31/202202/22/202310-K
09/30/202211/01/202210-Q
06/30/202208/02/202210-Q
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
03/31/202605/05/202610-Q
12/31/202502/23/202610-K
09/30/202511/04/202510-Q
06/30/202508/05/202510-Q
03/31/202505/06/202510-Q
12/31/202402/21/202510-K
09/30/202411/06/202410-Q
06/30/202407/26/202410-Q
03/31/202405/02/202410-Q
12/31/202302/22/202410-K
09/30/202311/02/202310-Q
06/30/202308/02/202310-Q
03/31/202305/04/202310-Q
12/31/202202/22/202310-K
09/30/202211/01/202210-Q
06/30/202208/02/202210-Q
03/31/202205/04/202210-Q
12/31/202102/22/202210-K
09/30/202111/02/202110-Q
06/30/202108/02/202110-Q
03/31/202105/04/202110-Q
12/31/202002/22/202110-K
09/30/202011/03/202010-Q
06/30/202008/03/202010-Q
03/31/202005/04/202010-Q
12/31/201902/26/202010-K
09/30/201910/31/201910-Q
06/30/201908/01/201910-Q

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 7/8/2026

Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/16/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Marked CET1 ratio benefit 0.01  1.0% 

Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/20/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Return of Capital      

Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/16/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2025 Net charge-offs000   

Insider Activity

Updated 7/7/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Gile, Elizabeth R DirectSell605202620.8823,946499,992443,804Form
2Mago, Angela GChief Human Resources OfficerDirectSell512202621.6622,826494,4116,098,676Form
3Paine, Andrew J IiiHead of Institutional BankDirectSell210202623.2365,9611,532,2743,869,723Form
4Mago, Angela GChief Human Resources OfficerDirectSell202202621.5562,8501,354,4185,633,493Form
5Evans, Trina MDirector, Corporate CenterDirectSell123202621.7432,695710,7891,276,551Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Gile, Elizabeth R DirectSell605202620.8823,946499,992443,804Form
2Mago, Angela GChief Human Resources OfficerDirectSell512202621.6622,826494,4116,098,676Form
3Paine, Andrew J IiiHead of Institutional BankDirectSell210202623.2365,9611,532,2743,869,723Form
4Mago, Angela GChief Human Resources OfficerDirectSell202202621.5562,8501,354,4185,633,493Form
5Evans, Trina MDirector, Corporate CenterDirectSell123202621.7432,695710,7891,276,551Form
6Paine, Andrew J IiiHead of Institutional BankDirectSell911202519.2944,953867,1434,726,899Form
7Brady, Amy GChief Information OfficerDirectSell812202517.6150,000880,500572,730Form
8Evans, Trina MDirector, Corporate CenterDirectSell728202518.6717,000317,3901,544,364Form
9Gorman, Christopher MChairman and CEODirectSell725202518.86112,1492,115,13011,691,220Form

Investor Activity (13F)

Updated Jul 15, 2026
13F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)

Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank and community-bank filers are excluded.

Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
HoldCo Asset Management, LP$149.5 Mil11.1%29Hold13F
Active Manager
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Rhino Investment Partners, Inc$12.2 Mil3.5%37Exited13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
HoldCo Asset Management, LP$149.5 Mil11.1%29Hold13F
Core Cache Last Updated: 7/14/2026