Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB)
Market Price (5/24/2026): $49.5 | Market Cap: $40.8 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Regional Banks
Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB)
Market Price (5/24/2026): $49.5Market Cap: $40.8 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Regional Banks
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.3% Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -117% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, CFO LTM is 2.2 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.5 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% Uninsured deposits are lowUninsured Deposits Ratio %Fraction of deposits that exceed the insurance deposit thresholds. For example, the FDIC protects deposits up to $250K. A high uninsured deposits ratio indicates large accounts and greater potential exposure to bank run risk. is 24% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Digital Payments, Online Banking & Lending, and Wealth Management Technology. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -3.0% Moderate capital ratioTier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 9.1% | Key risksFITB key risks include [1] significant commercial credit vulnerabilities, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.3% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -117% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, CFO LTM is 2.2 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.5 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% |
| Uninsured deposits are lowUninsured Deposits Ratio %Fraction of deposits that exceed the insurance deposit thresholds. For example, the FDIC protects deposits up to $250K. A high uninsured deposits ratio indicates large accounts and greater potential exposure to bank run risk. is 24% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Digital Payments, Online Banking & Lending, and Wealth Management Technology. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -3.0% |
| Moderate capital ratioTier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 9.1% |
| Key risksFITB key risks include [1] significant commercial credit vulnerabilities, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Fifth Third Bancorp reported a significant decline in its first-quarter 2026 net income and diluted earnings per share (EPS). The company's net income available to common shareholders fell to $128 million, or $0.15 per diluted share, a substantial decrease compared to $478 million, or $0.71 per diluted share, in the prior-year quarter. Its adjusted EPS of $0.83 also narrowly missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.84.
2. Non-interest expenses surged, primarily due to costs associated with the Comerica acquisition. Fifth Third Bancorp experienced an 84% year-over-year increase in non-interest expenses, reaching $2.39 billion in Q1 2026. This was largely driven by $635 million in direct merger-related expenses from the Comerica Incorporated acquisition, which closed on February 1, 2026. As a result, the company's efficiency ratio deteriorated significantly to 84.5% from 61.0% in the year-ago quarter.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -0.6% change in FITB stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/23/2026 was primarily driven by a -19.2% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 49.77 | 49.48 | -0.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,640 | 9,461 | 9.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 27.9% | 23.0% | -17.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.8 | 18.8 | 36.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 666 | 825 | -19.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -0.6% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FITB | -0.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.1% | 52.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | -2.3% | 80.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 21.0% change in FITB stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/23/2026 was primarily driven by a 60.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 40.90 | 49.48 | 21.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,471 | 9,461 | 11.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 27.6% | 23.0% | -16.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.7 | 18.8 | 60.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 671 | 825 | -18.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 21.0% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FITB | 21.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.9% | 43.6% |
| Sector (XLF) | 0.0% | 68.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 42.6% change in FITB stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/23/2026 was primarily driven by a 85.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 34.70 | 49.48 | 42.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,244 | 9,461 | 14.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 28.1% | 23.0% | -18.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 10.1 | 18.8 | 85.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 675 | 825 | -18.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 42.6% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FITB | 42.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 36.0% | 52.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | 8.2% | 72.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 112.6% change in FITB stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/23/2026 was primarily driven by a 186.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 23.27 | 49.48 | 112.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,133 | 9,461 | 16.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 30.1% | 23.0% | -23.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 6.6 | 18.8 | 186.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 689 | 825 | -16.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 112.6% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FITB | 112.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 86.3% | 53.7% |
| Sector (XLF) | 64.4% | 73.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FITB Return | 62% | -22% | 10% | 27% | 15% | 6% | 117% |
| Peers Return | 31% | -23% | 3% | 28% | 12% | -2% | 44% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 98% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FITB Win Rate | 75% | 58% | 50% | 67% | 58% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 68% | 40% | 50% | 58% | 53% | 36% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FITB Max Drawdown | -19% | -37% | -38% | -13% | -25% | -21% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -16% | -40% | -43% | -14% | -28% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: PNC, USB, TRU, HBAN, KEY. See FITB Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/22/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | FITB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -24.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 80 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -17.2% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.7% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 24 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -37.2% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.2% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 306 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -28.5% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.8% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 636 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -60.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 153.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 294 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -21.5% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.4% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 80 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Fifth Third Bancorp's stock fell -24.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 31.8% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | FITB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -24.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 80 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -37.2% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.2% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 306 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -28.5% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.8% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 636 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -60.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 153.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 294 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -21.5% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.4% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 80 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -33.2% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.6% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 217 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -29.0% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.8% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 176 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -27.8% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.5% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 122 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -22.2% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.6% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 142 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -95.9% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 2326.7% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1854 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Fifth Third Bancorp's stock fell -24.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 31.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB)
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1. PNC Financial Services Group for the Midwest and Southeast.
2. U.S. Bancorp with a strong focus on the Eastern and Southeastern U.S.
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- Deposit Accounts: Offers checking, savings, and other deposit accounts for individuals and businesses.
- Lending Services: Provides a broad spectrum of loans including commercial, residential mortgage, home equity, auto, credit cards, and personal loans.
- Cash Management Services: Delivers solutions for businesses to manage their cash flow, payments, and liquidity effectively.
- Wealth & Investment Management: Offers financial planning, investment management, brokerage, trust, and estate services for individuals and institutions.
- Capital Markets & Trade Finance: Provides specialized services such as foreign exchange, derivatives, international trade finance, and syndicated finance.
- Commercial Leasing: Supplies leasing options for commercial customers.
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Major Customers of Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB)
Fifth Third Bancorp operates as a diversified financial services company serving a broad range of customers. While it provides extensive services to commercial and institutional clients, its significant network of banking centers and ATMs, along with its consumer lending and branch banking segments, indicates a strong focus on individual consumers and small businesses. Therefore, the company primarily serves the following categories of customers:
- Individual Consumers: This category includes individuals seeking a wide range of personal banking services, such as checking and savings accounts, home equity loans and lines of credit, credit cards, loans for automobiles and personal financing needs, residential mortgages, retail brokerage services, wealth planning, investment management, and trust and estate services.
- Small Businesses: Fifth Third Bancorp provides deposit and loan products, as well as cash management services, specifically tailored to meet the needs of small businesses.
- Commercial, Government, and Institutional Clients: This category encompasses mid-sized to large businesses, government entities (including states and municipalities), professional customers, and not-for-profit organizations. These clients utilize services such as credit intermediation, cash management, foreign exchange, capital markets services, asset-based lending, real estate finance, public finance, commercial leasing, syndicated finance, and institutional wealth and asset management advisory services.
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```htmlTimothy N. Spence
Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President
Timothy N. Spence joined Fifth Third in 2015 as chief strategy officer. He was named president in October 2020, became CEO in July 2022, and assumed the role of chairman in December 2023. Prior to his time at Fifth Third, he served as a senior partner at the consulting firm Oliver Wyman. He also held management positions at two growth-stage technology businesses. Spence has been instrumental in the bank's digital transformation, overseeing initiatives such as the acquisitions of Provide and Dividend Finance and the development of the Fifth Third Momentum® Banking product. He was recognized as American Banker's Digital Banker of the Year in 2018.
Bryan D. Preston
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Bryan D. Preston was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Fifth Third Bancorp in January 2024. He has a long tenure with the company, having served as Treasurer since February 2020. His experience at Fifth Third also includes roles as the consumer line of business chief financial officer from September 2017 to February 2020, and assistant treasurer from March 2014 to September 2017, in addition to various other positions in finance and accounting since 2008.
Jamie C. Leonard
Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer
Jamie C. Leonard assumed the role of Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer for Fifth Third Bancorp effective January 2, 2024. Prior to this appointment, he served as the company's Chief Financial Officer. Leonard's extensive career at Fifth Third, which he joined in 1999, also includes leadership positions as Chief Risk Officer and Treasurer.
Jude A. Schramm
Executive Vice President and Chief Information Officer
Jude A. Schramm serves as Executive Vice President and Chief Information Officer for Fifth Third Bancorp, a position he has held since joining the bank in 2018. In this role, he is responsible for setting the company's strategic technical roadmap, driving modernization, and leading teams focused on enterprise information technology, line of business products, and artificial intelligence. Before joining Fifth Third, Schramm spent nearly 17 years at GE, culminating in his role as CIO for GE Aviation, where he led IT strategy and digital transformation. He also previously worked as a senior consultant at Ernst & Young LLP.
Kevin P. Lavender
Vice Chairman, Commercial Bank
Kevin P. Lavender holds the position of Vice Chairman, Commercial Bank at Fifth Third Bancorp. In this capacity, he is responsible for overseeing the enterprise-wide commercial banking operations and providing strategic direction for this segment of the bank.
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```htmlKey Risks to Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB)
- Credit Quality Risk: As a diversified financial services company involved in lending, Fifth Third Bancorp faces the inherent risk of credit losses. A deterioration in economic conditions could lead to increased difficulty for customers in repaying their credit obligations, resulting in higher levels of credit losses and the need for increased reserves. The company has experienced challenges in asset quality, including significant impairment charges related to commercial borrowers, which can raise concerns about risk management practices and impact investor confidence.
- Interest Rate Fluctuations: Fifth Third Bancorp, like other financial institutions, is significantly exposed to interest rate fluctuations. Changes in interest rates can directly impact the bank's net interest income (NII), which is the difference between the interest earned on its assets (like loans) and the interest paid on its liabilities (like deposits). A challenging interest rate environment can pressure NII, affecting overall financial performance.
- Intense Competition and Digital Disruption: The financial services industry is highly competitive, with Fifth Third Bancorp contending with a diverse array of institutions including super-regional banks, national money center banks, and disruptive fintech firms. The relentless acceleration of digitalization is a primary industry trend, requiring continuous strategic investments in technology and digital solutions to remain competitive, attract and retain customers, and defend against non-traditional competitors. Failure to effectively adapt to technological changes and compete in the digital landscape could impact market share and profitability.
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- The emergence of digital-first challenger banks (neobanks) and fintech companies that offer streamlined, often lower-cost, and digitally native banking services directly threatens Fifth Third Bancorp's traditional Branch Banking and Consumer Lending segments. These competitors can attract customers seeking convenient, mobile-first experiences for deposits, payments, and personal loans, potentially eroding FITB's customer base and fee income.
- The growth of online lenders and mortgage providers that leverage advanced technology to offer faster, fully digital application and approval processes for consumer loans and mortgages poses a significant threat to Fifth Third Bancorp's Consumer Lending operations and aspects of its Branch Banking. These agile competitors can capture market share by offering greater convenience and potentially more competitive rates.
- The increasing adoption of robo-advisors and other automated investment platforms threatens Fifth Third Bancorp's Wealth & Asset Management segment. These platforms provide low-cost, algorithm-driven investment management services, potentially drawing away clients, particularly in the retail and mass-affluent segments, who might otherwise use FITB's traditional wealth planning, investment management, and retail brokerage services.
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Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) operates within several significant addressable markets across the United States. For its main products and services, the estimated market sizes are as follows: * Commercial Banking: The U.S. commercial banking market size is estimated at USD 765.53 billion in 2026, with projections to reach USD 954.48 billion by 2031. * Small Business Lending (part of Commercial Banking): The U.S. small business loan market was valued at USD 245.39 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow to USD 349.64 billion by 2033. * Branch Banking (Retail Banking): The United States retail banking market was valued at USD 870 billion in 2025 and is estimated to grow to USD 1,112.2 billion by 2031. * Residential Mortgage and Home Equity Loans (Consumer Lending): The U.S. home loan market size is estimated at USD 2.42 trillion in 2026, growing to USD 3.17 trillion by 2031. * Automobile Loans (Consumer Lending): The U.S. auto loan market size is projected to be USD 709.13 billion in 2026, and reach USD 899.17 billion by 2031. * Wealth & Asset Management (Private Banking segment): The United States private banking market is valued at USD 59.54 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 94.89 billion by 2030. While the broader U.S. wealth management market oversees trillions in assets under management, the private banking market specifically reflects a key addressable segment for Fifth Third's wealth services.AI Analysis | Feedback
Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several strategic initiatives and market expansions:
- Expansion in the Southeast Markets: Fifth Third Bancorp is actively expanding its presence in the high-growth Southeast markets. The company plans to open additional branches in these regions, which has contributed to growth in consumer households and deposits. De novo branches in the Southeast and Texas are demonstrating strong performance by gathering over $50 million in deposits per branch within their first five years.
- Growth in Wealth & Asset Management: The company is investing in and seeing significant growth in its Wealth & Asset Management segment. This segment experienced a 10% year-over-year increase in revenue in the first quarter of 2024, driven by strong growth in Fifth Third Wealth Advisors. In the fourth quarter of 2025, wealth and asset management fees grew by 13% compared to the previous year.
- Increased Treasury Management and Commercial Payments Fees: Fifth Third Bancorp continues to invest in its treasury management and commercial banking services. Treasury management revenue grew 11% year-over-year in Q1 2024, supported by software-enabled managed services payments offerings and its embedded payments business, Newline. Commercial payments fees also saw an 8% year-over-year increase and a 6% sequential increase in Q4 2025.
- Growth in Middle Market Relationships and Loans: The bank is focused on expanding its commercial client base, having added a record number of new quality middle market relationships in 2023. This focus translated into solid middle market loan growth in Q1 2024 as the bank drives for more granularity and wins private bank relationships. Middle market loans increased 7% year-over-year in Q4 2025.
- Acquisition of Comerica: The planned acquisition of Comerica is a significant catalyst for Fifth Third Bancorp within the 2-3 year timeframe, with the legal close targeted for 2Q26–3Q26 and systems conversion on September 8, 2026. This acquisition is expected to enhance the bank's scale and scalability, potentially accelerating account and loan growth and driving substantial increases in both net interest income and non-interest income.
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Share Repurchases
- Fifth Third Bancorp's Board of Directors approved a new share repurchase authorization of up to 100 million shares on June 16, 2025, replacing a previous 2019 authorization that had 11.8 million shares remaining.
- In 2025, the company completed an accelerated share repurchase transaction of approximately $300 million, acquiring 6,929,352 shares, and approximately 93.1 million shares of repurchase authority remained under the new program.
- Fifth Third Bancorp returned $1.6 billion of capital to shareholders in 2025, which included share repurchases.
Share Issuance
- In February 2026, Fifth Third Bancorp acquired Comerica in an all-stock transaction valued at approximately $12.7 billion.
Outbound Investments
- The company acquired Comerica in February 2026 in an all-stock transaction, which is expected to create $850 million in annual pre-tax cost savings and increase earnings per share by 9% by 2027.
- In December 2025, Fifth Third Bancorp agreed to acquire Mechanics Bank's Fannie Mae Delegated Underwriting and Servicing business, adding a $1.8 billion servicing portfolio.
- Fifth Third Bancorp partnered with Eldridge Capital Management in July 2025 to offer private credit arrangements to commercial bank clients, with an estimated $2 billion to $3 billion in the next two to three years.
Capital Expenditures
- Fifth Third Bancorp plans to increase its investment in new branches to $1.9 billion through 2029, up from $225 million announced in 2018.
- The primary focus of these capital expenditures is the expansion of branches in the Southeast and Texas, with plans to add 150 locations in Texas by 2029.
- The company launched approximately 50 new branch locations and entered Alabama in 2025.
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | EEFT | Euronet Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04242026 | HOMB | Home BancShares | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| 03312026 | HBAN | Huntington Bancshares | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 7.1% | 7.1% | 0.0% |
| 03312026 | NP | Neptune Insurance | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 3.9% | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | TRU | TransUnion | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| 11302023 | FITB | Fifth Third Bancorp | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 29.5% | 72.5% | 0.0% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 52.16 |
| Mkt Cap | 35.3 |
| Rev LTM | 9,122 |
| Op Inc LTM | 855 |
| FCF LTM | 2,166 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,411 |
| CFO LTM | 2,390 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,798 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 13.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 5.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 10.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 18.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 28.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 32.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 26.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 35.3 |
| P/S | 3.3 |
| P/Op Inc | 15.9 |
| P/EBIT | 12.2 |
| P/E | 12.9 |
| P/CFO | 12.5 |
| Total Yield | 9.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.9% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 9.6% |
| D/E | 0.7 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -3.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -6.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 17.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 32.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 104.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -8.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -10.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 7.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 4.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 27.0% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer and Small Business Banking | 5,378 | 6,312 | 4,184 | 2,792 | |
| Commercial Banking | 3,912 | 5,184 | 3,882 | 3,093 | 3,204 |
| Wealth and Asset Management | 614 | 729 | 807 | 658 | 665 |
| General Corporate and Other | -1,401 | -3,492 | -321 | 1,525 | 778 |
| Eliminations | -177 | -180 | -153 | ||
| Branch Banking | 2,418 | ||||
| Consumer Lending | 700 | ||||
| Total | 8,503 | 8,733 | 8,375 | 7,888 | 7,612 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $49.48 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 32.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/26/1990 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -9.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $48.07 | $46.12 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | 2.9% | 7.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 27.1% | 25.3% |
| Downside Capture | 149.17 | 87.08 |
| Upside Capture | 78.56 | 97.64 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 54.9% | 48.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.89 | 0.93 | 1.03 | 0.87 | 1.09 | 1.04 |
| Up Beta | 1.17 | 1.15 | 1.16 | 1.10 | 1.40 | 1.05 |
| Down Beta | -2.19 | 0.66 | 0.90 | 0.36 | 1.08 | 1.08 |
| Up Capture | 84% | 85% | 100% | 120% | 104% | 119% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 34 | 68 | 134 | 400 |
| Down Capture | -25% | 95% | 104% | 78% | 91% | 99% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 21 | 30 | 57 | 118 | 351 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FITB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FITB | 36.5% | 25.2% | 1.19 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 4.9% | 14.5% | 0.11 | 70.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 29.5% | 12.0% | 1.86 | 48.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 35.5% | 26.8% | 1.11 | -0.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 42.9% | 18.7% | 1.77 | -16.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 15.2% | 13.1% | 0.82 | 39.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -31.3% | 41.8% | -0.78 | 23.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FITB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FITB | 6.8% | 31.8% | 0.25 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 8.4% | 18.6% | 0.33 | 80.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 17.0% | 0.64 | 59.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.8% | 18.0% | 0.85 | -1.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.4% | 19.4% | 0.42 | 14.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.8% | 18.8% | 0.10 | 52.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 11.6% | 55.3% | 0.41 | 20.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FITB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FITB | 15.1% | 36.3% | 0.49 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 12.9% | 22.1% | 0.53 | 85.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.7% | 17.9% | 0.75 | 64.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.0% | 16.0% | 0.67 | -5.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.8% | 17.9% | 0.35 | 24.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.5% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 55.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.7% | 66.9% | 1.06 | 16.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/17/2026 | 1.7% | 2.8% | -4.4% |
| 1/20/2026 | 2.0% | 2.7% | 9.2% |
| 10/17/2025 | 1.3% | 4.2% | 5.5% |
| 7/17/2025 | -1.0% | -0.7% | 0.3% |
| 4/17/2025 | -0.7% | 4.0% | 15.2% |
| 1/21/2025 | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| 10/18/2024 | -1.5% | -2.9% | 3.6% |
| 7/19/2024 | 1.9% | 4.0% | 1.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 14 | 20 |
| # Negative | 12 | 10 | 4 |
| Median Positive | 2.0% | 3.7% | 5.8% |
| Median Negative | -1.4% | -3.7% | -7.2% |
| Max Positive | 5.9% | 9.3% | 15.2% |
| Max Negative | -6.3% | -9.2% | -10.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/24/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/24/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/27/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sefzik, Peter L | EVP | Direct | Sell | 4292026 | 50.46 | 20,000 | 1,009,189 | 9,556,109 | Form |
| 2 | Khanna, Kevin J | EVP | Direct | Sell | 4212026 | 50.77 | 6,000 | 304,630 | 3,873,827 | Form |
| 3 | Schramm, Jude | EVP & CIO | Direct | Sell | 2252026 | 50.54 | 3,896 | 196,911 | 7,149,634 | Form |
| 4 | Schramm, Jude | EVP & CIO | Direct | Sell | 2252026 | 50.96 | 11,000 | 560,604 | 7,407,924 | Form |
| 5 | Spence, Timothy | Chair, CEO & President | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 54.05 | 3,420 | 184,868 | 23,532,412 | Form |
FITB Trade Sentinel
ACCUMULATE (Score 7-8)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The score of 8 reflects a compelling 'Accumulate' thesis. The company has a clear, company-specific catalyst for value creation through the Comerica integration. The competitive moat is widening, and the stock is trading at a cheap valuation that offers a margin of safety against the primary risk, which is operational execution. The risk-reward skew is favorable, with a successful integration offering significant upside. This is a classic execution-dependent story where early signs are positive.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Type E: Turnaround / Deep ValueThe investment thesis is entirely dominated by a company-specific event: the successful execution and integration of the transformative Comerica acquisition. The primary focus is on management's ability to realize massive cost synergies and pivot the company into a larger, more profitable 'super-regional' bank. This aligns perfectly with a Turnaround/Transformation archetype, where management execution is the key variable.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The successful integration of Comerica is set to transform FITB into a top-10 U.S. bank, creating a 'super-regional' powerhouse with significant scale advantages and a new growth engine in attractive markets like Texas. The primary value driver is the realization of a projected $850 million in annual run-rate cost synergies by Q4 2026, which will drive significant margin expansion and earnings growth.
- Management raised full-year 2026 NII guidance to $8.7B - $8.8B, signaling confidence in the combined entity's earnings power.
- Net Interest Margin (NIM) expanded 17 basis points sequentially in Q1 2026 to 3.30%, indicating the deal is immediately accretive to profitability.
- The acquisition provides a platform for significant expansion in the high-growth Texas market, with plans for 150 new branches by 2029.
- Tangible Book Value (TBV) per share grew 1% sequentially post-acquisition, demonstrating value creation without dilution.
PRIMARY RISK
The single largest and most imminent risk is a failure of the full technology and systems conversion of the Comerica platform, scheduled for Labor Day weekend. A botched integration could lead to widespread customer disruptions, account errors, and reputational damage, causing significant customer attrition and preventing the realization of the cost synergies that underpin the entire investment thesis.
- This is the largest and most complex integration in the bank's history, inherently carrying high execution risk.
- The Q1 2026 results already show an 83% sequential increase in noninterest expense, highlighting the massive initial cost burden before the most complex IT work has even occurred.
- Historical precedent from other large bank mergers shows that failed IT conversions (e.g., TSB Bank in the UK) can destroy shareholder value and lead to CEO departure.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Net Interest Margin (NIM) | Sustain > 3.30% | Validates that the combined entity has enhanced pricing power and that the acquisition is accretive to core profitability. |
| Adjusted Efficiency Ratio | Trending towards mid-50s | This is the primary indicator of cost synergy realization. Failure for this ratio to decline meaningfully post-integration would signal the thesis is breaking. |
| Deposit Flows (especially in TX & CA) | Stable to positive net flows | Directly measures customer retention post-conversion. Significant deposit runoff from former Comerica markets would be a major red flag indicating a botched integration. |
The Comerica Integration: Transformation vs. Execution Failure
BULL VIEW
Successful integration unlocks $850M in synergies, driving significant margin expansion and earnings growth. Early signs like the 17bps NIM expansion are positive.
CORE TENSION
Will the complex Comerica integration create a profitable 'super-regional' bank or will a systems conversion failure destroy the deal's value proposition?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Management raised full-year 2026 NII guidance to $8.7B - $8.8B and Q1 2026 Net Interest Margin (NIM) expanded 17 basis points sequentially to 3.30%, signaling immediate accretion.
BEAR VIEW
A botched systems conversion over Labor Day weekend could cause widespread customer attrition and prevent synergy realization, breaking the entire investment thesis.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Q3 2026 (Labor Day Weekend) | Comerica Systems Conversion Watch: Watch for media reports of widespread customer disruption vs. a smooth conversion announcement. The key signal is the absence of negative headlines. |
Mid-July 2026 | Q2 2026 Earnings Release Watch: Provision for Credit Losses and Net Charge-Offs. Watch if NCOs remain within the guided 30-40 bps range, a key test of the acquired loan book quality. |
Mid-October 2026 | Q3 2026 Earnings Release Watch: Adjusted Efficiency Ratio. First post-conversion report card on synergy realization. Watch for a meaningful sequential decline from Q1's 61.9% level. |
H2 2026 | Basel III Endgame Compliance Cost Guidance Watch: Management's initial estimate for increased non-interest expense due to heightened regulatory requirements as a Category III institution. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Nov 20, 2025 | Sector Headwinds Details: A short-seller report raised concerns about growing risks in private credit markets, creating negative sentiment across the U.S. regional banking sector. | Muted (-0.5%) $40.76 -> $40.56 |
Dec 10, 2025 | Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference Details: Management presented a positive outlook at the conference, likely boosting investor confidence in its strategic direction and the upcoming Comerica merger. | Surged +5.2% $44.39 -> $46.72 |
Jan 20, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings Release Details: Reported strong Q4 results with EPS of $1.04, beating expectations. Management expressed confidence in the pending Comerica transaction, expecting a Feb 1 close. | Surged +5.5% $49.67 -> $52.38 |
Feb 2, 2026 | Comerica Acquisition Closed Details: The bank officially closed its largest-ever acquisition, adding $86 billion in assets and creating a top-10 U.S. bank. | Rose significantly by 3.4% $49.77 -> $51.48 |
Feb 26, 2026 | Investor Lawsuit Filed Details: A lawsuit was filed alleging the bank ignored red flags related to subprime auto loan fraud, extending the timeline of a previously disclosed issue. | Flat (0.8%) $51.09 -> $51.50 |
Apr 17, 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Release Details: Reported adjusted EPS of $0.83, beating estimates. Key metrics showed NIM expanded 17bps sequentially to 3.30% and TBV per share grew 1% post-acquisition. | Modest 1.7% gain $49.52 -> $50.34 |
Position Sizing
7%-10%
AGGRESSIVE
Stock has moderate volatility at 2.3x the S&P. The fundamental picture is highly attractive: a Bullish sentiment, Cheap valuation, and Widening moat. This is a 'Fat Pitch' scenario, justifying an aggressive allocation.
Diversification Alternatives
PNC
SECTORPNC offers a more stable and diversified earnings stream without the high-stakes, binary execution risk of FITB's massive Comerica integration.
MTB
SECTORM&T is known for its conservative underwriting culture, offering a defensive posture against the primary risk of credit quality deterioration in FITB's acquired loan book.
Fifth Third is re-rating from a Midwest-centric regional bank to a larger, more diversified institution with significant growth drivers in the Southeast and Texas, following its transformative acquisition of Comerica.
Filter all news through the lens of the Comerica acquisition's integration progress and its impact on net interest income (NII) and expense synergies.
News of successful systems conversion over Labor Day weekend; achievement of the $850 million annual cost savings run-rate by Q4 2026; stronger-than-expected loan growth in former Comerica markets (Texas, California); NII guidance being raised again.
Delays or major issues with the technology conversion; failure to achieve stated cost synergy targets; significant deposit runoff from former Comerica customers; deterioration in credit quality, particularly within the acquired commercial loan portfolio.
Minor quarterly fluctuations in specific fee income lines (e.g., mortgage banking); short-term swings in the stock price of peer regional banks; analyst price target changes that are not tied to a fundamental change in the integration thesis.
Repricing Catalyst
The successful integration of Comerica, which closed on February 1, 2026, is the primary catalyst. This is expected to deliver $850 million in annual run-rate cost savings by Q4 2026 and provides a platform for significant revenue growth in attractive markets like Texas. The market is rewarding the early signs of a smooth integration and strong financial performance, including a 17 basis point sequential expansion in Net Interest Margin (NIM) in Q1 2026.
Commercial Banking
$5.1B TTM (43% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
Middle market lending, commercial real estate loans, treasury management services, capital markets services (e.g., M&A advisory, loan syndications).
Who Pays & How
Mid-sized and large businesses pay interest on variable and fixed-rate loans and fees for cash management, payment processing, and financial advisory services. Switching costs are high due to deep integration of treasury services into a client's daily operations.
Competition
Retail & Consumer Lending
$4.4B TTM (37% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
Residential mortgages, home equity lines of credit (HELOCs), auto loans, credit cards, and deposit accounts for individuals and small businesses.
Who Pays & How
Consumers pay interest on loans and monthly service fees for certain deposit accounts. The bank wins through convenience (branch network, digital app) and competitive loan rates.
Competition
Wealth & Asset Management
$0.9B TTM (8% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
Private banking, investment management, brokerage services, and retirement plan services for high-net-worth individuals and institutions.
Who Pays & How
Clients pay fees based on a percentage of assets under management (AUM) for investment advice and portfolio management.
Competition
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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