Visa (V)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $344.5 | Market Cap: $445.8 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services
Visa (V)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $344.5Market Cap: $445.8 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.3% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -9.6%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -4.3% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 11x |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 66% | Key risksV key risks include [1] global regulatory and antitrust challenges targeting its market dominance and fee structure, Show more. | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 58%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 54%, CFO LTM is 23 Bil, FCF LTM is 22 Bil | ||
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -31% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, E-commerce & Digital Retail, Cybersecurity, and AI in Financial Services. Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.3% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 66% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 58%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 54%, CFO LTM is 23 Bil, FCF LTM is 22 Bil |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -31% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, E-commerce & Digital Retail, Cybersecurity, and AI in Financial Services. Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -9.6%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -4.3% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 11x |
| Key risksV key risks include [1] global regulatory and antitrust challenges targeting its market dominance and fee structure, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
V Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Visa's Share Price Underperformance and Valuation
Visa experienced a period of underperformance, trailing the S&P 500 by over 25 percentage points since mid-June and showing a -12.42% price return over the six months leading up to December 2025. This trend pushed the stock to one of its cheapest relative valuations in a decade, despite no deterioration in fundamental performance.
2. Concerns Regarding Stablecoin Disruption
Investor fears about potential disruption from stablecoins posing a long-term threat to Visa's payments business contributed to negative sentiment and weighed on the stock during this period. While some analysts ultimately viewed stablecoins as an opportunity rather than a threat, these concerns were a factor.
3. Market Rotation into AI/Risk-on Stocks
A broader market rotation where investors shifted capital into artificial intelligence (AI) and other "risk-on" stocks contributed to Visa's underperformance, as funds moved away from traditional players like Visa.
4. Slower Growth and Fintech Investment Concerns
JPMorgan noted that slower growth and concerns surrounding returns on fintech investments weighed heavily on payments and fintech stock prices throughout 2025. This broader industry sentiment likely impacted Visa's stock performance.
5. Significant Insider Selling Activity
During the past six months, there were notable insider selling transactions. Ryan McInerney, Chief Executive Officer, sold shares valued at approximately $17.45 million, and Rajat Taneja, President of Technology, sold shares estimated at around $9.92 million. These transactions exceeded the USD 5 million threshold and could have contributed to negative market sentiment.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| V Return | 17% | -0% | -3% | 26% | 22% | 10% | 92% |
| Peers Return | 31% | -5% | -20% | 20% | 33% | � | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| V Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 42% | 75% | 67% | 42% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 55% | 42% | 57% | 63% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| V Max Drawdown | -28% | -13% | -18% | -0% | -2% | -3% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -33% | -21% | -29% | -8% | -8% | -35% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MA, AXP, PYPL, FI, GPN. See V Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | V | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -29.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 417 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -36.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 158 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -19.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 23.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -52.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 108.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 332 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to MA, AXP, COF, ADP, V
In The Past
Visa's stock fell -29.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/27/2021. A -29.2% loss requires a 41.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Visa Earnings Notes | |||
| Visa Stock Now 35% Cheaper, Time To Buy | Actionable | ||
| Visa Stock: Join the Rally at a 38% Discount | Actionable | ||
| Visa Stock Now 39% Cheaper, Time To Buy | Actionable | ||
| V Delivers $127 Bil to Investors Over a Decade | |||
| Is Visa Stock Built to Withstand a Pullback? | Return | ||
| Visa vs Interactive Brokers: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Better Bet Than V Stock: Pay Less Than Visa To Get More From BKNG, RCL | |||
| Better Bet Than V Stock: Pay Less Than Visa To Get More From IBKR, JEF | |||
| Better Bet Than V Stock: Pay Less Than Visa To Get More From FOUR | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Visa Stock Now 35% Cheaper, Time To Buy | December 17th, 2025 | ||
| S&P 500 Movers | Winners: RCL, NCLH, V | Losers: ORCL, HOOD, TTD | December 11th, 2025 | ||
| Visa Stock Pullback: A Chance to Ride the Uptrend | December 2nd, 2025 | ||
| Block vs Visa: Which Stock Could Rally? | November 26th, 2025 | ||
| High Margins, 39% Discount: Buy Visa Stock Now | November 21st, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to V. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.6% | 14.6% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.6% | 5.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.2% | -4.2% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.4% | 4.4% | -2.7% |
| 12312022 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 14.8% | 26.3% | -0.2% |
| 06302022 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.3% | 21.9% | -9.6% |
| 11302021 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.9% | 13.1% | -7.8% |
| 10312020 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 28.9% | 17.2% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.6% | 14.6% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.6% | 5.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.2% | -4.2% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.4% | 4.4% | -2.7% |
| 12312022 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 14.8% | 26.3% | -0.2% |
| 06302022 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.3% | 21.9% | -9.6% |
| 11302021 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.9% | 13.1% | -7.8% |
| 10312020 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 28.9% | 17.2% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Visa
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 344.41 |
| Mkt Cap | 158.5 |
| Rev LTM | 31,552 |
| Op Inc LTM | 6,344 |
| FCF LTM | 10,716 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 8,838 |
| CFO LTM | 11,862 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 9,769 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 30.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 26.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 32.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 26.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 24.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 158.5 |
| P/S | 3.3 |
| P/EBIT | 11.5 |
| P/E | 21.4 |
| P/CFO | 10.7 |
| Total Yield | 5.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.4% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -3.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 5.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 7.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 66.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -7.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -3.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -7.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/28/2025 | -1.6% | -1.9% | -3.6% |
| 7/29/2025 | -0.1% | -3.9% | -0.1% |
| 4/29/2025 | 1.2% | 1.8% | 6.3% |
| 1/30/2025 | -0.4% | 1.3% | 5.6% |
| 10/29/2024 | 2.9% | 4.0% | 11.9% |
| 7/23/2024 | -4.0% | -0.6% | 1.5% |
| 4/23/2024 | 0.3% | -2.0% | 0.7% |
| 1/25/2024 | -1.7% | 1.6% | 4.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 14 | 15 |
| # Negative | 13 | 10 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 2.2% | 2.2% | 6.3% |
| Median Negative | -1.6% | -2.4% | -3.0% |
| Max Positive | 10.6% | 12.3% | 16.8% |
| Max Negative | -6.9% | -9.8% | -12.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 1312025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11132024 | 10-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7242024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4242024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 1262024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11152023 | 10-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7262023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 1272023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11162022 | 10-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 1282022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | CARNEY LLOYD | 11052025 | Sell | 336.48 | 900 | 302,832 | 830,433 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |