First Citizens BancShares (FCNCA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $1937.4 | Market Cap: $24.9 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Regional Banks
First Citizens BancShares (FCNCA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $1937.4Market Cap: $24.9 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Regional Banks
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.0%, FCF Yield is 6.8% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -15% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.0%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.5% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 3.0 Bil | Moderate capital ratioTier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 10% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% | ||
| Uninsured deposits are lowUninsured Deposits Ratio %Fraction of deposits that exceed the insurance deposit thresholds. For example, the FDIC protects deposits up to $250K. A high uninsured deposits ratio indicates large accounts and greater potential exposure to bank run risk. is 16% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, Digital Payments, and Wealth Management Technology. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.0%, FCF Yield is 6.8% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 3.0 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% |
| Uninsured deposits are lowUninsured Deposits Ratio %Fraction of deposits that exceed the insurance deposit thresholds. For example, the FDIC protects deposits up to $250K. A high uninsured deposits ratio indicates large accounts and greater potential exposure to bank run risk. is 16% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, Digital Payments, and Wealth Management Technology. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -15% |
| Moderate capital ratioTier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 10% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.0%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.5% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
FCNCA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The stock of First Citizens BancShares (FCNCA) experienced a decline of -2.2% during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025. This movement can be attributed to several key factors:
1. Mixed Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Report: First Citizens BancShares reported its third-quarter 2025 earnings on October 23, 2025. While the company surpassed analyst expectations for earnings per share (EPS) at $44.62, beating the consensus of $43.23, it fell short on revenue, reporting $2.252 billion against an estimated $2.357 billion. This mixed performance, particularly the revenue miss, led to a muted market reaction and contributed to a decline in stock price over the preceding month.
2. Increase in Net Charge-Offs and Nonaccrual Loans: The third quarter of 2025 saw a significant increase in net charge-offs, totaling $234 million (0.65% of average loans), compared to $119 million (0.33% of average loans) in the linked quarter. This $115 million increase was primarily due to an $82 million charge-off on a single supply chain finance client in the Commercial Bank segment. Additionally, nonaccrual loans rose to $1.41 billion (0.97% of loans) at September 30, 2025, from $1.32 billion (0.93% of loans) at June 30, 2025, mainly within the Commercial Bank segment, indicating a deterioration in asset quality.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FCNCA Return | 8% | 45% | -8% | 88% | 49% | -9% | 265% |
| Peers Return | -7% | 37% | 8% | -10% | 29% | 4% | 67% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FCNCA Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 42% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 67% | 57% | 47% | 53% | 46% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FCNCA Max Drawdown | -47% | -1% | -28% | -33% | -3% | -26% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -51% | -0% | -12% | -40% | -10% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: EWBC, FHN, WBS, CFR, CBSH.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | FCNCA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -43.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 78.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 11 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -47.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 90.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 234 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 262 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -64.0% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 177.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1708 days | 1480 days |
Compare to EWBC, FHN, WBS, CFR, CBSH
In The Past
First Citizens BancShares's stock fell -43.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/2/2021. A -43.9% loss requires a 78.2% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to FCNCA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| 03312020 | FCNCA | First Citizens BancShares | Dip Buy | DB | Growth | FCF YieldDip Buy with Growth and High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with growth, and significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) | -5.2% | 152.0% | -12.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| 03312020 | FCNCA | First Citizens BancShares | Dip Buy | DB | Growth | FCF YieldDip Buy with Growth and High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with growth, and significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) | -5.2% | 152.0% | -12.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for First Citizens BancShares
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 85.52 |
| Mkt Cap | 10.9 |
| Rev LTM | 2,770 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 877 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,003 |
| CFO LTM | 917 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,042 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 31.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 32.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 22.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 28.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 10.9 |
| P/S | 3.7 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 12.2 |
| P/CFO | 13.2 |
| Total Yield | 10.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 9.2% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | -0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 0.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 11.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -0.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 15.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -6.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -3.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -16.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -56.0% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corporate | 11,427 | 675 | 1 | ||
| General Banking | 3,106 | 2,429 | 1,880 | ||
| Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) Commercial | 2,077 | 0 | |||
| Commercial Bank | 1,575 | 1,401 | 17 | ||
| Rail | 602 | 577 | |||
| Single segment | 1,820 | 1,698 | |||
| Total | 18,787 | 5,082 | 1,898 | 1,820 | 1,698 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corporate | 9,796 | -84 | -40 | ||
| General Banking | 871 | 662 | 576 | ||
| Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) Commercial | 544 | 0 | |||
| Commercial Bank | 165 | 408 | 11 | ||
| Rail | 90 | 112 | |||
| Total | 11,466 | 1,098 | 547 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5092025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2212025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
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