U.S. Bancorp (USB)
Market Price (9/19/2026): $60.09 | Market Cap: $93.4 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Financials | Industry: Diversified Banks
U.S. Bancorp (USB)
Market Price (9/19/2026): $60.09Market Cap: $93.4 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Diversified Banks
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 3.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.1%, FCF Yield is 13% Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -65% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42%, CFO LTM is 13 Bil, FCF LTM is 13 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.2 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 22% Uninsured deposits are lowUninsured Deposits Ratio %Fraction of deposits that exceed the insurance deposit thresholds. For example, the FDIC protects deposits up to $250K. A high uninsured deposits ratio indicates large accounts and greater potential exposure to bank run risk. is 19% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, and Sustainable Finance. Themes include Digital Payments, Show more. | Moderate capital ratioTier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 7.0% | Key risksUSB key risks include [1] deteriorating credit quality, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 3.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.1%, FCF Yield is 13% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -65% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42%, CFO LTM is 13 Bil, FCF LTM is 13 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.2 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 22% |
| Uninsured deposits are lowUninsured Deposits Ratio %Fraction of deposits that exceed the insurance deposit thresholds. For example, the FDIC protects deposits up to $250K. A high uninsured deposits ratio indicates large accounts and greater potential exposure to bank run risk. is 19% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, and Sustainable Finance. Themes include Digital Payments, Show more. |
| Moderate capital ratioTier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 7.0% |
| Key risksUSB key risks include [1] deteriorating credit quality, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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U.S. Bancorp (USB) stock has gained about 10% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Robust Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Performance and Upbeat Guidance.
U.S. Bancorp reported diluted earnings per share of $1.35 for fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 2026), beating the consensus estimate of $1.28 by $0.07. Quarterly net revenue reached a record $7.712 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $7.58 billion and marking a 10.1% increase year-over-year. The company achieved 400 basis points of positive operating leverage and subsequently raised its full-year 2026 total net revenue guidance to grow 7% to 9%.
2. Strategic Acquisitions Boosting Fee Income and Capital Markets Capabilities.
The successful completion of the BTIG acquisition on June 1, 2026, was a significant factor, contributing approximately $98 million in fee revenue during fiscal Q2 2026 and expected to add about $200 million in quarterly net revenue in the second half of 2026. Additionally, the acquisition of Amazon's small business credit card portfolio is anticipated to further benefit earnings in fiscal Q3 2026.
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U.S. Bancorp (USB) stock has gained about 10% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Robust Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Performance and Upbeat Guidance.
U.S. Bancorp reported diluted earnings per share of $1.35 for fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 2026), beating the consensus estimate of $1.28 by $0.07. Quarterly net revenue reached a record $7.712 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $7.58 billion and marking a 10.1% increase year-over-year. The company achieved 400 basis points of positive operating leverage and subsequently raised its full-year 2026 total net revenue guidance to grow 7% to 9%.
2. Strategic Acquisitions Boosting Fee Income and Capital Markets Capabilities.
The successful completion of the BTIG acquisition on June 1, 2026, was a significant factor, contributing approximately $98 million in fee revenue during fiscal Q2 2026 and expected to add about $200 million in quarterly net revenue in the second half of 2026. Additionally, the acquisition of Amazon's small business credit card portfolio is anticipated to further benefit earnings in fiscal Q3 2026.
3. Enhanced Shareholder Returns and Capital Strength.
On June 25, 2026, U.S. Bancorp announced that it successfully passed the Federal Reserve's 2026 stress test, maintaining strong capital levels. Following this, the company declared its intention to raise its quarterly dividend by 3.8% to 54 cents per share, signaling confidence in its financial resilience and commitment to shareholder value.
4. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Strategic Geographic Expansion.
Analysts responded favorably to the company's performance, with several firms upgrading ratings (e.g., JPMorgan to Neutral from Underweight, Evercore ISI Group to Outperform) and increasing price targets following the fiscal Q2 2026 results. Further bolstering investor confidence, U.S. Bancorp announced a significant expansion of its business banking operations into key Sun Belt markets on September 1, 2026, adding over 50 new client-facing roles to capitalize on high-growth regions.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 10.4% change in USB stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 5.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 54.38 | 60.06 | 10.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 28,872 | 29,583 | 2.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 27.0% | 27.6% | 2.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 10.8 | 11.4 | 5.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,554 | 1,554 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 10.4% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| USB | 10.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.9% | 26.2% |
| Sector (XLF) | 8.3% | 73.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 12.0% change in USB stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 4.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 9182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 53.64 | 60.06 | 12.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 28,540 | 29,583 | 3.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 26.5% | 27.6% | 4.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.0 | 11.4 | 3.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,554 | 1,554 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 12.0% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| USB | 12.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.6% | 38.8% |
| Sector (XLF) | 9.2% | 73.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 27.9% change in USB stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 10.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 9182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 46.96 | 60.06 | 27.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 27,715 | 29,583 | 6.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 24.9% | 27.6% | 10.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 10.6 | 11.4 | 7.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,559 | 1,554 | 0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 27.9% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| USB | 27.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 19.4% | 41.2% |
| Sector (XLF) | 4.7% | 74.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 87.9% change in USB stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 35.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312023 | 9182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 31.97 | 60.06 | 87.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 26,914 | 29,583 | 9.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 21.5% | 27.6% | 28.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 8.5 | 11.4 | 35.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,533 | 1,554 | -1.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 87.9% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| USB | 87.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.6% | 56.5% |
| Sector (XLF) | 69.8% | 75.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| USB Return | 24% | -19% | 5% | 16% | 16% | 15% | 63% |
| Peers Return | 41% | -18% | 11% | 36% | 26% | 5% | 130% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 103% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| USB Win Rate | 67% | 42% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 44% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 42% | 53% | 63% | 65% | 44% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 44% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| USB Max Drawdown | -14% | -37% | -42% | -14% | -28% | -16% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -14% | -37% | -30% | -13% | -26% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: JPM, BAC, WFC, PNC, TFC. See USB Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/18/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | USB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 84 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -17.9% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.7% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 20 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -40.8% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.9% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 434 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -30.2% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 757 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -47.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 89.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 338 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -18.1% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 126 days | 105 days |
In The Past
U.S. Bancorp's stock fell -21.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 27.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | USB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 84 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -40.8% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.9% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 434 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -30.2% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 757 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -47.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 89.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 338 days | 140 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -24.5% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.5% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 121 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -70.9% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 244.0% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1068 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
U.S. Bancorp's stock fell -21.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 27.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About U.S. Bancorp (USB)
U.S. Bancorp (USB) is a diversified financial services holding company operating across the United States. It provides a wide array of financial products and services to a broad base of clients, including individuals, small businesses, large corporations, institutional organizations, and governmental entities. The company primarily serves customers in the Midwest and West regions through its extensive network of branches and ATMs, alongside robust online and mobile platforms.
USB's core offerings span several key areas. For individuals and businesses, it provides essential banking services such as checking and savings accounts, various lending products including traditional loans, credit cards, and specialized financing like lease and agricultural finance. The company also offers comprehensive wealth management and investment services, including asset management and fiduciary services for individuals and institutions, as well as investment and insurance products.
Beyond traditional banking, U.S. Bancorp is a significant provider of payment services, including merchant processing and corporate card programs. It also offers capital markets and treasury management services to corporate and governmental clients, along with mortgage banking, ATM processing, and fund administration services. This diverse portfolio allows U.S. Bancorp to meet a wide range of financial needs across its customer base.
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- A full-service bank, similar to a regional version of JPMorgan Chase.
- A traditional, comprehensive U.S. bank, much like a Wells Fargo in the Midwest and West.
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- Depository Services: Provides checking accounts, savings accounts, and time certificate contracts for individuals and businesses.
- Lending Services: Offers traditional credit products, mortgage banking, credit cards, lease financing, and asset-backed lending.
- Wealth Management & Investment Services: Manages assets, provides fiduciary services, and offers investment and insurance products.
- Payment Services: Includes merchant processing, corporate and purchasing cards, and ATM processing.
- Capital Markets & Treasury Management: Provides capital markets advisory, treasury management, and receivable lock-box collection services to corporate and governmental clients.
- Fund Administration & Corporate Trust: Offers fund administration services to various funds and corporate trust services.
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Major Customers of U.S. Bancorp (USB)
U.S. Bancorp serves a diverse customer base, including individuals, businesses, and institutional organizations. Given its extensive network of banking offices and ATMs, along with dedicated segments like Consumer and Business Banking and Wealth Management, it serves a significant number of individual customers. Therefore, the major customer categories are described below:
- Individuals and Households: This includes a broad spectrum of the general public, from everyday consumers utilizing checking, savings, and lending services (such as mortgages and credit cards), to affluent individuals and estates seeking wealth management, investment products, and fiduciary services.
- Businesses (Small, Commercial, and Corporate): This category encompasses a wide range of enterprises, from small local businesses to large corporations. U.S. Bancorp provides them with traditional credit products, lease financing, asset-backed lending, capital markets services, treasury management, payment processing, and corporate trust services.
- Institutional Organizations and Governmental Entities: This includes foundations, charitable organizations, public sector entities, and other financial institutions. For these clients, U.S. Bancorp offers specialized services such as asset management, fiduciary services, fund administration, and corporate trust services.
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Gunjan Kedia, Chief Executive Officer
Gunjan Kedia was appointed Chief Executive Officer of U.S. Bancorp in April 2025, having previously served as President since 2024. Before becoming CEO, she was the Vice Chair of Wealth, Corporate, Commercial and Institutional Banking. With nearly 30 years of experience in financial services, Ms. Kedia joined U.S. Bancorp in 2016. Prior to her time at U.S. Bancorp, she held global executive positions at State Street Financial, where she led the investment servicing business in the Americas, and at Bank of New York Mellon, where she was an executive vice president and head of global product management for its global asset servicing business. Her earlier career included serving as a partner at McKinsey & Co., where she was a core leader of its financial services practice, and starting at PwC.
John Stern, Vice Chair and Chief Financial Officer
John Stern serves as Vice Chair and Chief Financial Officer of U.S. Bancorp, assuming leadership of the Finance division in 2023. He joined the organization in 2000. Throughout his tenure, Mr. Stern has held various senior leadership roles, including President of the Global Corporate Trust and Custody business from 2021 to 2023 and corporate treasurer from 2013 to 2021.
Andrew Cecere, Executive Chairman of the Board
Andrew Cecere became Executive Chairman of U.S. Bancorp in April 2025, after serving as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer from April 2018 to May 2024. He has been with U.S. Bancorp for nearly 40 years, joining the company in 1985. His past roles include President and Chief Executive Officer (April 2017 to April 2018), President and Chief Operating Officer (January 2016 to April 2017), Vice Chairman and Chief Operating Officer (January 2015 to January 2016), and Vice Chairman and Chief Financial Officer (February 2007 to January 2015). Mr. Cecere also previously served as Chief Financial Officer from 2000 to 2001.
Souheil Badran, Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Operations Officer
Souheil Badran joined U.S. Bancorp in December 2022 as Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Operations Officer, a position he is scheduled to retire from in spring 2026. Prior to U.S. Bancorp, Mr. Badran was Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer at Northwestern Mutual from January 2019 to November 2022. He also served as President of Alibaba's Alipay business in the Americas from August 2016 to August 2018. His career also encompasses executive leadership positions at Edo Interactive, Digital River, First Data, VeriSign, Digital Insight, and Metavante.
Stephen Philipson, Vice Chair and Head of Wealth, Corporate, Commercial and Institutional Banking
Stephen Philipson has been with U.S. Bancorp since 2009. He was appointed Vice Chair and Head of Wealth, Corporate, Commercial and Institutional Banking (WCIB) in 2024, and his responsibilities were expanded in 2025 to include oversight of U.S. Bancorp Impact Finance. Before leading WCIB, he headed the Global Markets and Specialized Finance group within WCIB.
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The key risks to U.S. Bancorp's business operations are primarily centered around economic conditions, interest rate fluctuations, and the evolving regulatory landscape.
- Deterioration in Credit Quality and Economic Downturns: U.S. Bancorp's performance is significantly susceptible to economic downturns, which can lead to increased loan defaults and a decline in asset quality. The bank has faced substantial provisions for credit losses, and a worsening macroeconomic outlook could quickly reverse positive trends in nonperforming assets.
- Interest Rate Risk and Net Interest Margin (NIM) Compression: Fluctuations in interest rates directly impact the bank's net interest income. A "higher-for-longer" interest rate environment can elevate funding costs for deposits and pressure the net interest margin. The shift of customer funds to higher-yield products also reduces the availability of cheaper funding sources.
- Regulatory and Compliance Risks: As a financial services holding company, U.S. Bancorp is subject to extensive and evolving regulatory requirements, including capital and liquidity standards, such as those set by the Federal Reserve and Basel III. Changes in these regulations, or the bank's ability to comply with them, can affect its profitability, capital levels, and operational flexibility. Additionally, cybersecurity threats and data privacy concerns represent ongoing regulatory and operational challenges.
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- Digital-first challenger banks and fintech companies offering streamlined, often lower-cost, and digitally native services in areas such as checking accounts, savings accounts, lending, payments, and wealth management, directly competing with U.S. Bancorp's various segments.
- Large technology companies ("Big Tech") leveraging their extensive user bases and technological infrastructure to offer financial products such as payment services, credit cards, and deposit accounts, directly competing with traditional banking services.
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U.S. Bancorp (USB) operates in several significant addressable markets within the United States.
Depository Services and Retail Banking
The U.S. retail banking market generated an estimated revenue of USD 454.3 billion in 2024. This market is projected to reach USD 678.3 billion by 2033, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.6% from 2025 to 2033. The U.S. retail banking market size is also forecast to increase by USD 92.1 billion at a CAGR of 4.2% between 2024 and 2029.
Lending Services
Commercial Lending
The U.S. Commercial Banking Market size is estimated at USD 226.44 billion in 2024. Total U.S. commercial and multifamily mortgage borrowing and lending was an estimated $429 billion in 2023, with a projected increase to $498 billion in 2024. The U.S. commercial lending market is approximated at around USD 2,399.44 billion in 2025.
Consumer Lending
Total U.S. consumer debt, including mortgage and non-mortgage debt, was $16.99 trillion as of April 2023. Non-mortgage debt specifically accounted for $4.66 trillion, with credit card balances making up 21.2% of this figure in April 2023. Unsecured personal loan balances in the U.S. reached $232 billion in the second quarter of 2023.
Credit Card Services
The U.S. credit cards sector recorded outstanding balances of $1.12 trillion in 2023. The total value of the U.S. credit card market reached $461 billion in 2023. Purchase volume by all general-purpose credit cards issued in the U.S. amounted to $5.821 trillion in 2023.
Wealth Management and Investment Services
The U.S. wealth management market was estimated to hold approximately $47 trillion in assets as of 2023. The total financial wealth of all U.S. households exceeded $90 trillion by year-end 2024. North America's asset management market was valued at USD 178.01 billion in 2023. The U.S. asset management market size is projected to reach USD 70.97 trillion in 2026 and USD 125.98 trillion by 2031, reflecting a 12.16% CAGR.
Payment Services (Merchant Processing)
Total U.S. merchant acquiring net revenue in 2023 was estimated to be around $35 billion, based on a total U.S. acquiring volume of approximately $12.3 trillion. The global merchant acquiring market was valued at USD 23 billion in 2024, with North America holding a leading market share.
Mortgage Banking
Residential mortgage debt in the U.S. totaled $11.92 trillion as of the fourth quarter of 2022. Mortgage originations in the U.S. totaled $1.50 trillion in 2023, with an increase to $1.69 trillion in 2024. The U.S. home mortgage market size was approximately USD 180.91 billion in 2023.
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U.S. Bancorp (USB) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives and market dynamics:
- Loan Growth and Net Interest Income (NII) Expansion: U.S. Bancorp projects continued growth in average loan balances, particularly within its commercial and credit card portfolios. This growth, combined with an improving deposit mix and the anticipated impact of Federal Reserve rate adjustments, is expected to enhance net interest income (NII) and contribute to the company's target of achieving a 3% net interest margin (NIM) by 2027.
- Expansion of Fee-Based Businesses: The company is strategically expanding its fee-generating capabilities across various non-interest income segments. This includes growth in payment services, wealth management offerings, and capital markets activities, which are anticipated to be significant contributors to revenue.
- Strategic Acquisitions: Acquisitions are a key driver, with the pending acquisition of BTIG expected to contribute meaningfully to non-interest income and strengthen U.S. Bancorp's capital markets franchise.
- Digital Innovation and Customer Engagement: Investments in digital banking platforms and artificial intelligence (AI) integration are aimed at improving customer experience and operational efficiency. Initiatives such as the Bank Smartly consumer banking suite have proven effective in attracting and retaining customers, leading to deposit growth.
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Share Repurchases
- U.S. Bancorp's Board of Directors authorized a new share repurchase program for up to $5 billion of outstanding common stock, which commenced on September 13, 2024, with repurchases planned to begin by early 2025.
- This $5 billion program superseded a prior share repurchase plan approved in December 2020.
- As of June 30, 2025, approximately $4.8 billion remained available under the $5 billion share repurchase plan. In 2025, the company returned $3.7 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.
Share Issuance
- The company issued Series M Depositary Shares on February 2, 2021, and Series O Depositary Shares on February 9, 2022, both with an initial public offering price of $25.00 per depositary share.
- The acquisition of BTIG, LLC, announced in January 2026, includes a component of 6,600,594 shares of common stock as part of the initial $725 million purchase price to be paid at closing.
Outbound Investments
- U.S. Bancorp completed the acquisition of MUFG Union Bank's core regional banking franchise in December 2022, significantly expanding its presence on the West Coast and enhancing its digital capabilities. This acquisition was projected to generate approximately $900 million in pre-tax cost synergies.
- In 2021, the company acquired PFM Asset Management, which amplified its institutional asset management capabilities nationwide.
- The company entered into a definitive agreement to acquire BTIG, LLC, a financial services firm, in January 2026, for a targeted consideration of up to $1 billion. This acquisition is aimed at expanding its capital markets business and serving institutional clients.
Capital Expenditures
- U.S. Bancorp has been making significant investments in digital infrastructure and artificial intelligence (AI), including the introduction of an AI-driven cash forecasting solution (U.S. Bank Liquidity Manager) in November 2025.
- The company's priorities for 2026 include investing for growth, particularly in technology, sales, and marketing.
- U.S. Bancorp is committed to digital transformation, as evidenced by its investment in innovative products and a new learning platform through its Skills Academy to improve operational efficiency and attract tech-savvy customers.
Peer Outperformance in Diversified Banks
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USB | U.S. Bancorp | 3.2% | 11.4x | 24.4% | 98.4% | 31.0% | — |
| C | Citigroup | 6.5% | 12.6x | 31.4% | 238.4% | 123.4% | +92pp |
| WFC | Wells Fargo | 2.4% | 11.6x | 5.4% | 114.3% | 109.3% | +78pp |
| BAC | Bank of America | 6.5% | 12.3x | 13.1% | 116.5% | 61.1% | +30pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reinsurance | 6 | 23.6% | 68.8% | 129.8% | SPNT 166% · RGA 145% · RNR 136% |
| Investment Banking & Brokerage | 13 | -0.4% | 99.9% | 114.4% | IBKR 505% · SNEX 246% · HOOD 183% |
| Diversified Banks ← | 12 | 27.9% | 126.2% | 112.2% | CM 154% · JPM 151% · RY 143% |
| Life & Health Insurance | 20 | 10.2% | 54.1% | 102.9% | JXN 562% · UNM 356% · FG 207% |
| Multi-Sector Holdings | 4 | 7.1% | 48.2% | 82.5% | JONE 361% · BRK-B 84% · VOYA 81% |
| Property & Casualty Insurance | 42 | 9.6% | 65.5% | 65.4% | ASIC 2760900% · HRTG 471% · UVE 319% |
| Regional Banks | 265 | 22.5% | 89.7% | 65.0% | ESQ 369% · VBNK 335% · GCBC 329% |
| Multi-line Insurance | 9 | 11.0% | 68.1% | 61.6% | GNW 186% · L 106% · SLF 98% |
| Financial Exchanges & Data | 15 | -2.0% | 12.3% | 32.5% | VIRT 184% · CBOE 136% · CME 80% |
| Diversified Financial Services | 4 | -8.8% | 18.9% | 28.3% | FRHC 167% · EQH 110% · TMS -54% |
| Consumer Finance | 30 | -0.1% | 84.0% | 25.8% | ENVA 445% · EZPW 333% · FCFS 163% |
| Insurance Brokers | 16 | -15.4% | -7.0% | 19.8% | LIFE 249% · ARX 87% · AJG 70% |
| Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance | 14 | -50.7% | 29.9% | 10.9% | FNMA 448% · FMCC 420% · ACT 204% |
| Asset Management & Custody Banks | 84 | -12.4% | 13.6% | 10.0% | WT 318% · SII 278% · VCTR 255% |
| Specialized Finance | 3 | 14.7% | 35.5% | -3.0% | EFC 27% · CACC -3% · HASI -18% |
| Mortgage REITs | 33 | -13.9% | 3.4% | -17.0% | NREF 51% · RITM 41% · DX 34% |
| Transaction & Payment Processing Services | 15 | -1.4% | -9.4% | -44.8% | V 72% · MA 70% · CPAY 54% |
| Diversified Capital Markets | 20 | -34.9% | 16.8% | -55.4% | OPY 190% · LPLA 129% · GOLD 90% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 73.09 |
| Mkt Cap | 178.1 |
| Rev LTM | 58,190 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 10,006 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 8,506 |
| CFO LTM | 10,006 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 8,506 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.8% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | - |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | - |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 29.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 29.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.9% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wealth, Corporate, Commercial and Institutional Banking | 12,083 | 12,151 | 11,957 | 9,241 | 3,892 |
| Consumer and Business Banking | 8,873 | 9,231 | 10,295 | 8,802 | 8,581 |
| Payment Services | 7,407 | 7,026 | 6,665 | 6,298 | 6,007 |
| Treasury and Corporate Support | 293 | -953 | -773 | -39 | 1,123 |
| Commercial and Institutional Banking | 3,224 | ||||
| Total | 28,656 | 27,455 | 28,144 | 24,302 | 22,827 |
| $ Mil | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Treasury and Corporate Support | 2,448 | 2,392 | 1,678 | 1,513 | |
| Consumer and Small Business Banking | 2,129 | ||||
| Payment Services | 1,872 | 1,789 | 1,917 | 2,043 | 497 |
| Wholesale Banking and Commercial Real Estate | 1,390 | ||||
| Wealth Management and Securities Services | 432 | 374 | 245 | 269 | 585 |
| Consumer Banking | 1,910 | 2,127 | 2,152 | 1,442 | |
| Wholesale Banking | 1,752 | 2,021 | 2,040 | 380 | |
| Treasury | -71 | ||||
| Total | 8,271 | 8,217 | 7,988 | 8,017 | 2,833 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wealth, Corporate, Commercial and Institutional Banking | 4,626 | 4,761 | 4,585 | 3,713 | 1,564 |
| Consumer and Business Banking | 1,723 | 1,887 | 2,500 | 2,210 | 2,357 |
| Payment Services | 1,282 | 1,087 | 1,051 | 1,345 | 1,704 |
| Treasury and Corporate Support | -61 | -1,436 | -2,707 | -1,443 | 1,496 |
| Commercial and Institutional Banking | 842 | ||||
| Total | 7,570 | 6,299 | 5,429 | 5,825 | 7,963 |
| $ Mil | 2023 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|
| Treasury and Corporate Support | 237,403 | |
| Wealth, Corporate, Commercial and Institutional Banking | 202,642 | |
| Consumer and Business Banking | 179,103 | |
| Payment Services | 44,292 | |
| Consumer Banking | 27,103 | |
| Treasury | 25,131 | |
| Trust Private Banking | 1,433 | |
| Wholesale Banking | 19,555 | |
| Total | 663,440 | 73,222 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $60.06 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 93.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 11/05/1987 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -8.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $63.05 | $56.73 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -4.7% | 5.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 20.6% | 22.4% |
| Downside Capture | 70.24 | 66.93 |
| Upside Capture | 84.52 | 80.52 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 37.4% | 41.6% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.59 | 0.83 | 0.32 | 0.57 | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| Up Beta | 0.73 | 0.44 | -0.06 | 0.67 | 0.80 | 0.97 |
| Down Beta | 1.82 | 1.57 | 0.29 | 0.44 | 0.62 | 1.11 |
| Up Capture | 12% | 67% | 74% | 59% | 71% | 95% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 24 | 39 | 71 | 139 | 388 |
| Down Capture | 83% | 95% | 19% | 52% | 68% | 98% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 17 | 24 | 55 | 111 | 359 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with USB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USB | 26.0% | 22.4% | 0.95 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 4.5% | 14.6% | 0.08 | 74.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.9% | 12.9% | 0.94 | 41.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.1% | 29.3% | 0.60 | 10.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 46.9% | 20.6% | 1.76 | -17.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 13.6% | 0.10 | 41.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -34.5% | 43.9% | -0.84 | 17.7% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with USB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USB | 6.1% | 29.6% | 0.22 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 10.1% | 18.4% | 0.41 | 76.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.9% | 17.2% | 0.57 | 56.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.1% | 18.8% | 0.83 | -0.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.3% | 19.5% | 0.45 | 11.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.1% | 18.8% | -0.05 | 53.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 11.2% | 52.5% | 0.39 | 20.9% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with USB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USB | 7.1% | 30.3% | 0.28 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 12.9% | 22.1% | 0.53 | 83.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 18.0% | 0.72 | 63.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.1% | 16.4% | 0.61 | -4.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.3% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 21.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.4% | 20.7% | 0.18 | 57.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 61.7% | 66.1% | 1.02 | 15.7% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 8/18/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/16/2026 | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.4% |
| 4/16/2026 | -1.6% | 0.4% | -5.2% |
| 1/20/2026 | -0.0% | 2.6% | 8.0% |
| 10/16/2025 | -1.7% | 1.9% | 1.9% |
| 7/17/2025 | -1.0% | 1.3% | 2.5% |
| 4/16/2025 | -2.1% | 2.3% | 15.4% |
| 1/16/2025 | -5.6% | -4.9% | -6.2% |
| 10/16/2024 | 4.7% | 2.2% | 8.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 16 | 16 |
| # Negative | 14 | 8 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 4.4% | 2.2% | 4.8% |
| Median Negative | -2.1% | -5.4% | -4.6% |
| Max Positive | 6.5% | 7.6% | 15.4% |
| Max Negative | -7.8% | -10.0% | -13.5% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/16/2026 | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.4% |
| 4/16/2026 | -1.6% | 0.4% | -5.2% |
| 1/20/2026 | -0.0% | 2.6% | 8.0% |
| 10/16/2025 | -1.7% | 1.9% | 1.9% |
| 7/17/2025 | -1.0% | 1.3% | 2.5% |
| 4/16/2025 | -2.1% | 2.3% | 15.4% |
| 1/16/2025 | -5.6% | -4.9% | -6.2% |
| 10/16/2024 | 4.7% | 2.2% | 8.9% |
| 7/17/2024 | 4.6% | 5.2% | -2.2% |
| 4/17/2024 | -3.6% | -0.1% | 3.0% |
| 1/17/2024 | -1.4% | 1.4% | -2.1% |
| 10/18/2023 | -4.4% | -10.0% | 6.6% |
| 7/19/2023 | 6.5% | 3.6% | 1.4% |
| 4/19/2023 | 2.3% | -9.7% | -13.5% |
| 1/25/2023 | 5.3% | 6.7% | 2.2% |
| 10/14/2022 | 3.4% | -3.3% | 8.6% |
| 7/15/2022 | 5.2% | 7.6% | 10.2% |
| 4/14/2022 | 4.1% | 4.0% | -4.0% |
| 1/19/2022 | -7.8% | -7.7% | -5.8% |
| 10/14/2021 | -2.2% | 1.8% | -1.1% |
| 7/15/2021 | 3.2% | 0.4% | 3.3% |
| 4/15/2021 | -2.2% | -1.0% | 6.1% |
| 1/20/2021 | -5.2% | -6.0% | 2.1% |
| 10/14/2020 | -0.4% | 2.1% | 13.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 16 | 16 |
| # Negative | 14 | 8 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 4.4% | 2.2% | 4.8% |
| Median Negative | -2.1% | -5.4% | -4.6% |
| Max Positive | 6.5% | 7.6% | 15.4% |
| Max Negative | -7.8% | -10.0% | -13.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/23/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/20/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/23/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/20/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/22/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/02/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/23/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/07/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/20/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/08/2019 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Updated 8/31/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kedia, Gunjan | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 8312026 | 62.37 | 27,267 | 1,700,670 | 26,586,387 | Form |
| 2 | Chosy, James L | Senior EVP and General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 7242026 | 63.28 | 22,968 | 1,453,415 | 15,989,844 | Form |
| 3 | Philipson, Stephen L | Vice Chair | Direct | Sell | 7222026 | 63.08 | 36,906 | 2,327,920 | 4,728,820 | Form |
| 4 | Dilip, Venkatachari | SEVP & Chief Info & Tech Off | Direct | Sell | 5062026 | 55.52 | 34,522 | 1,916,661 | 2,847,732 | Form |
| 5 | Richard, Jodi L | Vice Chair | Direct | Sell | 4222026 | 57.00 | 40,000 | 2,280,040 | 11,813,514 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kedia, Gunjan | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 8312026 | 62.37 | 27,267 | 1,700,670 | 26,586,387 | Form |
| 2 | Chosy, James L | Senior EVP and General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 7242026 | 63.28 | 22,968 | 1,453,415 | 15,989,844 | Form |
| 3 | Philipson, Stephen L | Vice Chair | Direct | Sell | 7222026 | 63.08 | 36,906 | 2,327,920 | 4,728,820 | Form |
| 4 | Dilip, Venkatachari | SEVP & Chief Info & Tech Off | Direct | Sell | 5062026 | 55.52 | 34,522 | 1,916,661 | 2,847,732 | Form |
| 5 | Richard, Jodi L | Vice Chair | Direct | Sell | 4222026 | 57.00 | 40,000 | 2,280,040 | 11,813,514 | Form |
| 6 | Runkel, Mark G | Vice Chair | Direct | Sell | 2092026 | 60.65 | 32,195 | 1,952,562 | 5,927,008 | Form |
| 7 | Barcelos, Elcio RT | Senior EVP, Chief HR Officer | Direct | Sell | 2042026 | 58.43 | 17,204 | 1,005,230 | 5,088,143 | Form |
| 8 | Chosy, James L | Senior EVP and General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 10212025 | 46.86 | 26,909 | 1,261,010 | 10,608,385 | Form |
| 9 | Cecere, Andrew | Direct | Sell | 10212025 | 46.34 | 140,445 | 6,508,924 | 63,048,387 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Sep 19, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coerente Capital Management | $22.6 Mil | 4.2% | 47 | Hold | 13F |
| Tetrad Corp | $36.9 Mil | 3.7% | 3 | Hold | 13F |
| Minneapolis Portfolio Management Group, LLC | $30.4 Mil | 3.2% | 33 | Hold | 13F |
| Keystone Financial Planning, Inc. | $11.7 Mil | 3.1% | 40 | Hold | 13F |
| Cander Asset Management LP | $14.8 Mil | 2.6% | 43 | Hold | 13F |
| MFF Capital Investments Ltd | $28.4 Mil | 1.9% | 19 | ADD +6.6% | 13F |
| S&G Foundation | $29.1 Mil | 1.5% | 20 | New | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tetrad Corp | $36.9 Mil | 3.7% | 3 | Hold | 13F |
| Minneapolis Portfolio Management Group, LLC | $30.4 Mil | 3.2% | 33 | Hold | 13F |
| S&G Foundation | $29.1 Mil | 1.5% | 20 | New | 13F |
| MFF Capital Investments Ltd | $28.4 Mil | 1.9% | 19 | ADD +6.6% | 13F |
| Coerente Capital Management | $22.6 Mil | 4.2% | 47 | Hold | 13F |
| Cander Asset Management LP | $14.8 Mil | 2.6% | 43 | Hold | 13F |
| Keystone Financial Planning, Inc. | $11.7 Mil | 3.1% | 40 | Hold | 13F |
USB Trade Sentinel
High Conviction
CONVICTION RATIONALE
U.S. Bancorp is showing accelerating momentum from its strategic shift to fee-based businesses. A significant full-year revenue guidance raise to 7-9% and strong operating leverage demonstrate excellent execution. The recent BTIG acquisition is already contributing, supporting a path to higher, more stable earnings and a return on tangible common equity of 18.7%.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Diversified Financial Services(Loan & Investment Balances x Net Interest Margin) + (Payment Volumes & Assets Under Management x Fee Rates) Operating leverage achieved by growing higher-margin fee revenue faster than the expense base, and a strategic mix shift towards capital-light businesses like payments and wealth management.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests yes, as accelerating fee growth and disciplined cost control are driving higher returns and a significant increase in full-year guidance.
- Total fee revenue growth accelerated to 13.2% year-over-year in Q2 2026.
- Full-year 2026 revenue guidance was raised to 7-9% from a prior 4-6% range.
- The company expects to deliver approximately 200 basis points of positive operating leverage in 2026.
- Return on tangible common equity was strong at 18.7% in the most recent quarter.
- The BTIG acquisition generated approximately $98 million of revenue in its first month.
PRIMARY RISK
USB is entering the hyper-competitive capital markets space late, facing giants like JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America whose revenues are 6.6x and 4.1x larger, respectively. These peers are also reporting strong investment banking fee growth, creating a high bar for success.
- JPMorgan Chase's revenue is 6.6 times U.S. Bancorp's revenue.
- Bank of America's revenue is 4.1 times U.S. Bancorp's revenue.
- Peer JPMorgan Chase reported investment banking fees were up 30% year-over-year.
- Peer Bank of America reported investment banking fees increased 50% year-over-year.
- Management's stated aim is to grow capital markets to over 10% of total revenue over time.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Average Loan Growth | 7.1% year-over-year for Q2 2026 - Accelerating | Average loan growth accelerated significantly in the latest quarter, rising to 7.1% year-over-year from 3.8% in the prior quarter. Management noted this growth was broad-based and concentrated in strategic areas like commercial, commercial real estate, and credit card loans. |
| Fee Revenue Growth | 13.2% year-over-year for Q2 2026 (9.9% excluding the BTIG acquisition) - Accelerating | Fee revenue growth accelerated sharply in the latest quarter to 13.2% year-over-year, up from 6.9% in the prior quarter. This was driven by broad-based strength and the acquisition of BTIG, which contributed one month of revenue. Even excluding the acquisition, organic fee growth accelerated to 9.9%. |
| Fee Revenue as % of Total Revenue | 44% (Q2 2026) | Indicates the success of the company's strategy to diversify away from spread-based income towards more stable, service-based fees. |
| Return on Tangible Common Equity (ROTCE) | 18.7% (Q2 2026) | Measures the company's profitability and efficiency in generating profits from shareholders' equity. |
| Efficiency Ratio | 57.1% (Q2 2026) | Measures non-interest expense as a percentage of revenue. A lower ratio indicates better profitability and cost management. |
Strategic Pivot vs. Entrenched Competition
BULL VIEW
USB's targeted build-out in capital markets is a logical cross-sell to its existing corporate clients. Strong early results and accelerating organic fee growth of 9.9% show the strategy is working.
CORE TENSION
Can USB's targeted fee growth offset the scale disadvantage against peers whose investment banking fees are growing 30-50%?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the pivot. The company raised its full-year organic revenue guidance, proving underlying momentum beyond its recent acquisition.
BEAR VIEW
The scale and product breadth of incumbents like JPMorgan Chase are insurmountable. USB's gains are marginal and at risk if larger peers compete more aggressively for middle-market clients.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
10/13/2026 | Peer Earnings Reports Watch: Peer JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) are scheduled to report earnings. |
10/14/2026 | Peer Earnings Report Watch: Peer Bank of America (BAC) is scheduled to report earnings. |
10/15/2026 | Peer Performance Sets High Bar Watch: USB's capital markets and investment banking growth relative to strong peer results and management's own guidance. |
10/15/2026 | BTIG Integration Disappoints Watch: Reported capital markets revenue and specific management commentary on BTIG's contribution versus the $200 million quarterly guide. |
10/15/2026 | Q3 Earnings Report Watch: U.S. Bancorp is scheduled to report its next earnings, providing an update on Q3 2026 performance and forward guidance. |
November 16, 2026 | Visa Litigation Settlement Costs Watch: Outcome of the hearing, any changes to the settlement amount, and impact on the Visa derivative liability. |
November 16, 2026 | Visa Litigation Hearing Watch: A final approval hearing is scheduled for a settlement in the Visa Multi-District Litigation. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-09-09 | USBDC Stablecoin Launched Details: The company announced the launch of USBDC, its proprietary U.S. dollar-backed stablecoin, after a successful live pilot transaction on the Stellar blockchain. | -0.1% $62.49 -> $62.41 |
2026-07-16 | Q2 2026 Earnings Reported Details: The company reported Q2 2026 EPS of $1.35, up 22% year-over-year, on record net revenue of $7.7 billion. Revenue growth accelerated to 10.1% year-over-year. | +0.2% $63.01 -> $63.14 |
2026-07-08 | Enhanced Payments Launched Details: The company launched Enhanced Payments, a new bundled solution for small businesses to move money via ACH, wire, and instant payments through its online and mobile apps. | -1.6% $62.89 -> $61.90 |
2026-06-01 | BTIG Acquisition Completed Details: The company acquired BTIG, a global financial services firm, on June 1, 2026. BTIG generated approximately $98 million of revenue in its first month post-acquisition. | -0.5% $54.38 -> $54.14 |
2026-04-18 | Q1 2026 Earnings Reported Details: The company reported Q1 2026 earnings per share of $1.18, up about 15% year-over-year, with revenue growth of 4.7% and positive operating leverage. | +2.7% $55.01 -> $56.52 |
2026-04-07 | NFL Partnership Announced Details: The company announced a multi-year partnership with the National Football League, becoming an official bank and wealth management sponsor. | +3.6% $52.99 -> $54.89 |
Position Sizing
5% - 7%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: USB trades at roughly 23% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 13% for the S&P 500 (1.7x the market), around the 41st percentile of its own trailing year. A 5% - 7% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
JPM - JPMorgan Chase
Global Scale LeaderJPM offers exposure to a global, top-tier investment banking franchise with market-leading scale, a segment where U.S. Bancorp is still in the building phase.
BAC - Bank of America
U.S. Consumer PowerhouseBank of America possesses a dominant U.S. consumer banking franchise with superior scale and a long track record of consistent deposit growth.
A large, diversified regional bank successfully executing a strategic pivot to accelerate higher-margin, less cyclical fee-based revenue streams.
U.S. Bancorp is leveraging its scale in traditional banking to fuel growth in its payments, wealth, and capital markets businesses. The recent BTIG acquisition and Amazon partnership are key catalysts intended to accelerate this shift. Management is focused on delivering positive operating leverage by combining this accelerated revenue growth with continued expense discipline, aiming for a more stable and profitable earnings profile.
Sustained double-digit fee income growth, margin expansion in the capital markets business post-BTIG integration, and continued market share gains in consumer deposits.
A significant credit cycle downturn that overwhelms fee growth, failure to realize synergies from BTIG, or market share loss in core deposit franchises to larger banks or fintechs.
Short-term fluctuations in net interest margin due to Federal Reserve rate policy changes; quarterly volatility in trading revenues.
Repricing Catalyst
Successful integration of the BTIG acquisition and execution of the Amazon small business partnership, which are expected to add over $1 billion in run-rate revenue and accelerate the company's strategic shift to fees.
Wealth, Corporate, Commercial and Institutional Banking
$12.4B TTM (43% of Total)What It Is
This segment provides core banking, specialized lending, transaction and payment processing, capital markets, asset management, and brokerage services to wealth, middle market, large corporate, commercial real estate, government, and institutional clients.
Who Pays & How
Wealthy individuals, corporations, and institutions pay for asset management, capital markets access, and specialized banking services to manage and grow their capital, finance operations, and process transactions. The recent acquisition of BTIG is intended to expand these offerings.
Competition
Consumer and Business Banking
$8.9B TTM (31% of Total)What It Is
This segment serves consumers and small businesses, providing consumer banking, small business banking, and consumer lending products. Services are delivered through branches, online, mobile devices, ATMs, and other intermediary relationships like auto dealerships.
Who Pays & How
Consumers and small businesses pay interest on loans (mortgages, auto, credit lines) and fees for depository and other banking services to finance purchases, manage cash flow, and conduct daily financial activities.
Competition
Payment Services
$7.5B TTM (26% of Total)What It Is
This segment includes consumer and business credit cards, stored-value cards, debit cards, corporate, government and purchasing card services, and merchant processing.
Who Pays & How
Consumers, businesses, and government entities use these services for transactions. Revenue is generated from card fees, interchange fees from merchants, and fees for processing transactions for merchants.
Competition
Treasury and Corporate Support
$180M TTM (1% of Total)What It Is
This segment includes the company's investment portfolios, funding, capital management, and interest rate risk management. It also includes income taxes not allocated to business segments and residual corporate activity expenses.
Who Pays & How
This is an internal/support segment; revenue is primarily generated from the management of the company's own investment portfolio and funding activities.
Competition
U.S. Bancorp — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Financials Resources |
| Federal Reserve Economic Data |
| Federal Reserve |
| FDIC Data |
| American Banker |
| The Banker |
| Banking Technology |
| Diversified Banks Resources |
| Retail Banker International |
| International Banker |
| Global Finance Magazine |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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