U.S. Bancorp (USB)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $51.29 | Market Cap: $79.9 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Diversified Banks
U.S. Bancorp (USB)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $51.29Market Cap: $79.9 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Diversified Banks
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Uninsured deposits are lowUninsured Deposits Ratio %Fraction of deposits that exceed the insurance deposit thresholds. For example, the FDIC protects deposits up to $250K. A high uninsured deposits ratio indicates large accounts and greater potential exposure to bank run risk. is 19% | Moderate capital ratioTier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 7.0% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, and Sustainable Finance. Themes include Digital Payments, Show more. |
| Uninsured deposits are lowUninsured Deposits Ratio %Fraction of deposits that exceed the insurance deposit thresholds. For example, the FDIC protects deposits up to $250K. A high uninsured deposits ratio indicates large accounts and greater potential exposure to bank run risk. is 19% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, and Sustainable Finance. Themes include Digital Payments, Show more. |
| Moderate capital ratioTier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 7.0% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
USB Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
During the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, U.S. Bancorp (USB) stock demonstrated a notable movement, with several key factors contributing to its performance.
1. Strong Third-Quarter 2025 Earnings Beat: U.S. Bancorp reported robust financial results for the third quarter of 2025 on October 16, exceeding analyst expectations. The company announced diluted earnings per common share (EPS) of $1.22, an 18.4% increase year-over-year, which surpassed analyst estimates that ranged between $1.11 and $1.14 per share.
2. Record Net Revenue and Fee Income Growth: The third quarter of 2025 saw U.S. Bancorp achieve record net revenue of $7.3 billion, reflecting an almost 7% rise compared to the previous year. This revenue growth was significantly bolstered by solid net interest income and strong performance in its fee-based businesses, which saw a 9.5% increase in fee revenue.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| USB Return | -18% | 24% | -19% | 5% | 16% | 7% | 7% |
| Peers Return | -8% | 37% | -16% | 18% | 41% | 34% | 136% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| USB Win Rate | 50% | 67% | 42% | 42% | 50% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 62% | 43% | 55% | 63% | 68% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| USB Max Drawdown | -51% | -8% | -29% | -33% | -10% | -23% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -50% | -2% | -28% | -14% | -5% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: JPM, BAC, WFC, MS, C. See USB Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | USB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -54.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 120.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -51.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 104.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 402 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 315 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -76.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 330.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1690 days | 1480 days |
Compare to JPM, BAC, WFC, MS, C
In The Past
U.S. Bancorp's stock fell -54.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/14/2022. A -54.7% loss requires a 120.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to USB. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for U.S. Bancorp
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Returns
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Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wealth, Corporate, Commercial and Institutional Banking | 12,003 | 8,774 | 3,892 | 4,528 | 3,962 |
| Consumer and Business Banking | 10,358 | 8,300 | 8,581 | 8,936 | 8,736 |
| Payment Services | 6,664 | 6,298 | 6,007 | 5,686 | 6,185 |
| Treasury and Corporate Support | -881 | 930 | 1,123 | 907 | 1,128 |
| Commercial and Institutional Banking | 3,224 | 3,268 | 2,975 | ||
| Total | 28,144 | 24,302 | 22,827 | 23,325 | 22,986 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wealth, Corporate, Commercial and Institutional Banking | 4,664 | 3,363 | 1,564 | 1,659 | 1,683 |
| Consumer and Business Banking | 2,557 | 1,834 | 2,357 | 2,368 | 2,359 |
| Payment Services | 1,013 | 1,344 | 1,704 | 1,300 | 1,454 |
| Treasury and Corporate Support | -2,805 | -716 | 1,496 | -1,309 | 527 |
| Commercial and Institutional Banking | 842 | 941 | 891 | ||
| Total | 5,429 | 5,825 | 7,963 | 4,959 | 6,914 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2212025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2202024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8072023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5082023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11012022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2222022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
