Tearsheet

Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG)


Market Price (12/20/2025): $254.31 | Market Cap: $65.3 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Insurance Brokers

Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG)


Market Price (12/20/2025): $254.31
Market Cap: $65.3 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Insurance Brokers

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -29%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -36%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 25x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 34x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 41x
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 25%
  Key risks
AJG key risks include challenges tied to its aggressive acquisition strategy, Show more.
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Cybersecurity, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Show more.
  
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 25%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Cybersecurity, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -29%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -36%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 25x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 34x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 41x
5 Key risks
AJG key risks include challenges tied to its aggressive acquisition strategy, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

AJG Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The stock of Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG) experienced an approximate decline of 15.9% between August 31, 2025, and December 20, 2025, with its price moving from around $302.75 on August 29, 2025, to approximately $251.35 by December 17, 2025. This movement was primarily influenced by several key factors:

1. Q3 2025 Earnings Miss: Arthur J. Gallagher reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results on October 30, 2025, which fell short of analyst expectations for both revenue and earnings per share. The company reported revenue of $3.33 billion against an estimated $3.49 billion, and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.32 compared to a forecast of $2.57. This earnings miss led to a significant negative reaction in after-hours trading, causing the stock to plunge over 10%.

2. Increased Integration Costs and Anticipated Margin Pressure: The Q3 2025 EPS shortfall was partly attributed to higher integration costs and professional fees stemming from recent acquisitions, notably the AssuredPartners deal. Following these results, analysts, including Wells Fargo, revised their outlooks and trimmed price targets for AJG, citing expected pressure on the company's Q4 2025 margins.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AJG Return32%39%12%21%27%-10%185%
Peers Return-3%9%33%-8%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AJG Win Rate58%67%58%58%67%58% 
Peers Win Rate75%40%52%73%53% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AJG Max Drawdown-28%-9%-12%-6%0%-15% 
Peers Max Drawdown-19%-10%-2%-15% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MMC, AON, WTW, BRO, RYAN. See AJG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAJGS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-19.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven23.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven55 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-37.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven60.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven203 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-12.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven13.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven43 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-51.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven106.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven715 days1,480 days

Compare to MMC, AON, TRV, MET, AIG


In The Past

Arthur J. Gallagher's stock fell -19.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/21/2022. A -19.1% loss requires a 23.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG)

Better Bets than Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AJG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.5%13.5%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.0%2.0%-0.5%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.8%-4.8%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.8%5.8%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-12.1%-12.1%-12.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.5%13.5%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.0%2.0%-0.5%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.8%-4.8%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.8%5.8%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-12.1%-12.1%-12.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Arthur J. Gallagher

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AJGMMCAONWTWBRORYANMedian
NameArthur J.Marsh & .Aon Willis T.Brown & .Ryan Spe. 
Mkt Price253.39184.70350.04332.5680.1852.87219.04
Mkt Cap65.090.775.532.626.56.848.8
Rev LTM13,03026,45317,0289,8075,3442,96311,418
Op Inc LTM2,6826,1464,4542,2681,471-2,682
FCF LTM1,7674,8253,0401,3811,2995721,574
FCF 3Y Avg1,9724,0572,9561,1761,0844761,574
CFO LTM1,9165,0873,2841,6031,3676401,760
CFO 3Y Avg2,1334,3983,1991,4121,1575191,773

Growth & Margins

AJGMMCAONWTWBRORYANMedian
NameArthur J.Marsh & .Aon Willis T.Brown & .Ryan Spe. 
Rev Chg LTM15.6%10.5%14.1%-0.0%17.4%24.3%14.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg15.3%8.3%11.1%3.5%16.3%21.1%13.2%
Rev Chg Q19.9%11.5%7.4%-0.0%34.2%24.8%15.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM4.5%2.5%1.6%-0.0%8.0%5.3%3.5%
Op Mgn LTM20.6%23.2%26.2%23.1%27.5%-23.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg19.5%23.1%27.1%21.0%28.0%-23.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.5%-0.3%0.5%0.6%-1.2%--0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM14.7%19.2%19.3%16.3%25.6%21.6%19.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg19.1%18.1%21.5%14.6%24.8%21.3%20.2%
FCF/Rev LTM13.6%18.2%17.9%14.1%24.3%19.3%18.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg17.7%16.7%19.9%12.2%23.2%19.6%18.6%

Valuation

AJGMMCAONWTWBRORYANMedian
NameArthur J.Marsh & .Aon Willis T.Brown & .Ryan Spe. 
Mkt Cap65.090.775.532.626.56.848.8
P/S5.03.44.43.35.02.33.9
P/EBIT25.014.117.711.016.812.615.4
P/E40.622.027.815.426.697.827.2
P/CFO33.917.823.020.319.410.619.9
Total Yield2.9%6.4%4.4%7.3%4.4%1.9%4.4%
Dividend Yield0.5%1.8%0.8%0.8%0.7%0.9%0.8%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.2%4.0%4.1%4.1%4.1%6.9%4.1%
D/E0.20.20.20.20.30.50.2
Net D/E0.20.20.10.10.30.50.2

Returns

AJGMMCAONWTWBRORYANMedian
NameArthur J.Marsh & .Aon Willis T.Brown & .Ryan Spe. 
1M Rtn2.1%4.3%1.7%4.8%1.7%-5.6%1.9%
3M Rtn-15.2%-5.7%-0.1%-1.0%-12.4%-0.6%-3.3%
6M Rtn-20.5%-13.8%-0.9%11.9%-25.9%-21.1%-17.1%
12M Rtn-8.4%-10.8%-0.2%8.1%-21.1%-15.6%-9.6%
3Y Rtn39.4%17.2%20.4%44.2%47.3%32.3%35.8%
1M Excs Rtn-0.7%1.4%-1.2%1.9%-1.2%-8.5%-1.0%
3M Excs Rtn-17.4%-7.9%-2.9%-3.7%-15.3%-3.8%-5.9%
6M Excs Rtn-34.9%-28.4%-15.8%-3.3%-40.9%-36.1%-31.6%
12M Excs Rtn-22.6%-24.9%-14.6%-4.6%-34.7%-31.6%-23.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-36.1%-59.0%-53.9%-30.3%-30.5%-39.9%-38.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Brokerage8,6377,3045,9685,1674,902
Risk management1,4331,2231,101973977
Corporate2241,1418631,316
Total10,0728,5518,2097,0047,195


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Brokerage1,1631,1971,008861700
Risk management154116906766
Corporate-348-199-191-109-98
Total9691,114907819669


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Brokerage47,44634,67529,82119,18516,742
Corporate2,5202,5412,4902,1721,995
Risk management1,6491,1431,034974898
Total51,61638,35833,34522,33119,635


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4,263,068
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520254.3%
Average Daily Volume1,587,915
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.68
Basic Shares Quantity256,600,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.7%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/30/2025-4.8%-6.4%-6.5%
7/31/2025-1.1%1.0%5.4%
5/1/20254.2%6.6%9.8%
1/30/20250.9%7.0%14.3%
10/24/2024-1.6%-2.2%5.8%
7/25/20243.5%4.8%5.1%
4/25/2024-1.2%0.7%6.4%
1/25/2024-2.0%-2.4%2.6%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111720
# Negative1374
Median Positive2.8%4.8%5.8%
Median Negative-1.2%-2.2%-6.4%
Max Positive6.2%8.8%20.3%
Max Negative-6.0%-8.0%-7.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251110202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025801202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025502202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024218202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241029202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024726202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024501202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023209202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231027202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023804202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023508202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022210202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221102202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022506202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021218202210-K 12/31/2021