Tearsheet

Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $244.32 | Market Cap: $62.6 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Insurance Brokers

Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $244.32
Market Cap: $62.6 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Insurance Brokers

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Cybersecurity, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Show more.
 
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Cybersecurity, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

AJG Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The stock of Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG) experienced a decline of approximately 19% between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, driven by a combination of disappointing earnings, analyst downgrades, and concerns about valuation and acquisition strategy.

1. Underperforming Earnings and Revenue Misses
Arthur J. Gallagher reported third-quarter 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of $2.32, falling short of the estimated $2.51 EPS, representing a surprise factor of -7.57%. This consistent underperformance relative to analyst expectations for both EPS and revenue signaled challenges in revenue generation or cost control, leading to investor caution.

2. Multiple Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Cuts
Several prominent analysts downgraded Arthur J. Gallagher's stock during this period. Barclays downgraded AJG to "Underweight" from "Equal-Weight" on November 20, 2025, and lowered its price target from $328.00 to $250.00. Goldman Sachs also adjusted its stance from "Buy" to "Neutral" on November 25, 2024 (although the impact would carry into 2025 expectations) maintaining a $313.00 price target. These downgrades and reduced price targets reflected increased caution about the company's outlook and potential concerns about future performance.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AJG Return32%39%12%21%27%-13%174%
Peers Return-3%40%11%4%21%2%93%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AJG Win Rate58%67%58%58%67%60% 
Peers Win Rate61%67%55%58%68%56% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AJG Max Drawdown-28%-9%-12%-6%0%-14% 
Peers Max Drawdown-37%-4%-11%-16%-1%-9% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MMC, AON, TRV, MET, AIG. See AJG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAJGS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-19.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven23.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven55 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-37.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven60.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven203 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-12.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven13.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven43 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-51.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven106.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven715 days1480 days

Compare to MMC, AON, TRV, MET, AIG


In The Past

Arthur J. Gallagher's stock fell -19.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/21/2022. A -19.1% loss requires a 23.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AJG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Arthur J. Gallagher

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AJGMMCAONTRVMETAIGMedian
NameArthur J.Marsh & .Aon Traveler.MetLife American. 
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AJGMMCAONTRVMETAIGMedian
NameArthur J.Marsh & .Aon Traveler.MetLife American. 
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Valuation

AJGMMCAONTRVMETAIGMedian
NameArthur J.Marsh & .Aon Traveler.MetLife American. 
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Returns

AJGMMCAONTRVMETAIGMedian
NameArthur J.Marsh & .Aon Traveler.MetLife American. 
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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Brokerage8,6377,3045,9685,1674,902
Risk management1,4331,2231,101973977
Corporate2241,1418631,316
Total10,0728,5518,2097,0047,195


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Brokerage1,1631,1971,008861700
Risk management154116906766
Corporate-348-199-191-109-98
Total9691,114907819669


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Brokerage47,44634,67529,57019,18516,742
Corporate2,5202,5412,6332,1721,995
Risk management1,6491,1431,034974898
Total51,61638,35833,23622,33119,635


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4,086,481
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120258.4%
Average Daily Volume1,799,824
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.27
Basic Shares Quantity256,200,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025801202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025502202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024218202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241029202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024726202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024501202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023209202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231027202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023804202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023508202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022210202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221102202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022506202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021218202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211029202110-Q 9/30/2021