Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $86.4 | Market Cap: $80.5 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Diversified Banks
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $86.4Market Cap: $80.5 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Diversified Banks
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.1%, FCF Yield is 24% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.4%, Dist 3Y High is -0.4% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 128% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 62%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 58%, CFO LTM is 17 Bil, FCF LTM is 16 Bil | Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 12.23 | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 18% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, and Sustainable Finance. Themes include Digital Payments, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.1%, FCF Yield is 24% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 62%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 58%, CFO LTM is 17 Bil, FCF LTM is 16 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 18% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, and Sustainable Finance. Themes include Digital Payments, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.4%, Dist 3Y High is -0.4% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 12.23 |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 128% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CM Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining the 13.7% movement in Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) stock during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Strong Financial Performance in Q3 and Q4 2025: CIBC reported strong third-quarter 2025 financial results on August 28, 2025, showing a 17% year-over-year increase in reported net income and an 18% rise in reported diluted earnings per share. This positive momentum continued with the announcement of record financial performance for fiscal year 2025 and better-than-expected fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share and revenue on December 4, 2025.
2. Increased Quarterly Dividend: Following the strong fourth-quarter results, CIBC announced an increase in its quarterly dividend from CDN$0.97 to CDN$1.07 per share, signaling confidence in its sustained profitability and enhancing shareholder value.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CM Return | 9% | 42% | -27% | 26% | 38% | 42% | 181% |
| Peers Return | -14% | 35% | -16% | 18% | 38% | 33% | 111% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CM Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 42% | 50% | 67% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 60% | 42% | 55% | 62% | 68% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CM Max Drawdown | -44% | -1% | -29% | -10% | -8% | -13% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -49% | -2% | -27% | -13% | -4% | -14% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: C, JPM, BAC, WFC, RY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -47.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 90.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 405 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -44.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 79.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 240 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -25.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 813 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -73.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 281.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4448 days | 1480 days |
Compare to C, JPM, BAC, WFC, RY
In The Past
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce's stock fell -47.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/18/2022. A -47.4% loss requires a 90.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| How Low Can Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce Stock Really Go? | Return | |
| Fundamental Metrics: ... |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 98.03 |
| Mkt Cap | 252.4 |
| Rev LTM | 83,888 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 978 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 12,423 |
| CFO LTM | 1,534 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 12,959 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 20.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 20.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 252.4 |
| P/S | 3.1 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 12.6 |
| P/CFO | -0.3 |
| Total Yield | 8.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 9.3% |
| D/E | 1.5 |
| Net D/E | -0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 10.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 24.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 30.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 120.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 9.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 14.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 36.8% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 4302021 | 5272021 | 6-K 4/30/2021 |
| 1312021 | 2252021 | 6-K 1/31/2021 |
| 7312020 | 8272020 | 6-K 7/31/2020 |
| 4302020 | 5282020 | 6-K 4/30/2020 |
| 1312020 | 2262020 | 6-K 1/31/2020 |
| 7312019 | 8222019 | 6-K 7/31/2019 |
| 4302019 | 5222019 | 6-K 4/30/2019 |
| 1312019 | 2282019 | 6-K 1/31/2019 |
| 7312018 | 8232018 | 6-K 7/31/2018 |
| 4302018 | 5232018 | 6-K 4/30/2018 |
| 1312018 | 2222018 | 6-K 1/31/2018 |
| 7312017 | 8242017 | 6-K 7/31/2017 |
| 4302017 | 5252017 | 6-K 4/30/2017 |
| 1312017 | 2232017 | 6-K 1/31/2017 |
| 7312016 | 8252016 | 6-K 7/31/2016 |
| 4302016 | 5262016 | 6-K 4/30/2016 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |