Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $91.56 | Market Cap: $85.0 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Diversified Banks
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $91.56Market Cap: $85.0 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Diversified Banks
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.7%, Dist 3Y High is -1.7% | Key risksCM key risks include [1] its significant exposure to the Canadian housing market and potential mortgage delinquencies. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 48%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44%, CFO LTM is 14 Bil, FCF LTM is 13 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 18% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, and Sustainable Finance. Themes include Digital Payments, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 48%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44%, CFO LTM is 14 Bil, FCF LTM is 13 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 18% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, and Sustainable Finance. Themes include Digital Payments, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.7%, Dist 3Y High is -1.7% |
| Key risksCM key risks include [1] its significant exposure to the Canadian housing market and potential mortgage delinquencies. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CM Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) experienced a significant upward movement in its stock price between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025, driven by several key factors.
1. Record Financial Performance and Q4 Earnings Beat: CIBC announced record financial performance for fiscal year 2025, along with strong fourth-quarter results for the period ended October 31, 2025, on December 4, 2025. The bank reported increased revenue and net income, surpassing analysts' earnings and revenue estimates for Q4 2025.
2. Increased Dividend: Following its robust financial performance, CIBC's Board of Directors approved an increase in the common share dividend for the first quarter of fiscal 2026. This dividend raise signals confidence in the bank's financial health and future prospects.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CM Return | 9% | 42% | -27% | 26% | 38% | 52% | 202% |
| Peers Return | 3% | 38% | -15% | 14% | 15% | 48% | 134% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CM Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 42% | 50% | 67% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 63% | 47% | 53% | 53% | 82% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CM Max Drawdown | -44% | -1% | -29% | -10% | -8% | -13% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -42% | -1% | -25% | -12% | -9% | -9% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: RY, TD, BMO, BNS, JPM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -47.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 90.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 405 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -44.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 79.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 240 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -25.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 813 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -73.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 281.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4448 days | 1480 days |
Compare to C, JPM, BAC, WFC, RY
In The Past
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce's stock fell -47.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/18/2022. A -47.4% loss requires a 90.0% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Is Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce Stock Built to Withstand a Pullback? | Return | |
| Fundamental Metrics: ... |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.4% | -2.4% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.6% | 4.6% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.0% | -9.0% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.4% | -2.4% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.6% | 4.6% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.0% | -9.0% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 110.00 |
| Mkt Cap | 114.3 |
| Rev LTM | 49,189 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 6,786 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 12,572 |
| CFO LTM | 7,824 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 13,936 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 11.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 12.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 21.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 47.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 18.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 43.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 114.3 |
| P/S | 2.6 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 10.4 |
| P/CFO | 4.6 |
| Total Yield | 10.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
| D/E | 2.1 |
| Net D/E | 1.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 13.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 31.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 38.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 89.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 11.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 18.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 26.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 13.1% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canadian Personal and Business Banking | 9,416 | 8,909 | 8,150 | 7,922 |
| Capital Markets and Direct Financial Services | 5,488 | 5,001 | 4,520 | 4,053 |
| Canadian Commercial Banking and Wealth Management | 5,403 | 5,254 | 4,670 | 4,121 |
| U.S. Commercial Banking and Wealth Management | 2,692 | 2,457 | 2,194 | 2,043 |
| Corporate and Other | 333 | 212 | 481 | 602 |
| Income from equity-accounted associates and joint ventures | -79 | |||
| Total | 23,332 | 21,833 | 20,015 | 18,662 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canadian Personal and Business Banking | 2,364 | 2,249 | 2,494 | 1,785 |
| Capital Markets and Direct Financial Services | 1,986 | 1,908 | 1,857 | 1,308 |
| Canadian Commercial Banking and Wealth Management | 1,878 | 1,895 | 1,665 | 1,202 |
| U.S. Commercial Banking and Wealth Management | 379 | 760 | 926 | 375 |
| Corporate and Other | -1,606 | -592 | -513 | -880 |
| Total | 5,001 | 6,220 | 6,429 | 3,790 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 4302021 | 5272021 | 6-K 4/30/2021 |
| 1312021 | 2252021 | 6-K 1/31/2021 |
| 7312020 | 8272020 | 6-K 7/31/2020 |
| 4302020 | 5282020 | 6-K 4/30/2020 |
| 1312020 | 2262020 | 6-K 1/31/2020 |
| 7312019 | 8222019 | 6-K 7/31/2019 |
| 4302019 | 5222019 | 6-K 4/30/2019 |
| 1312019 | 2282019 | 6-K 1/31/2019 |
| 7312018 | 8232018 | 6-K 7/31/2018 |
| 4302018 | 5232018 | 6-K 4/30/2018 |
| 1312018 | 2222018 | 6-K 1/31/2018 |
| 7312017 | 8242017 | 6-K 7/31/2017 |
| 4302017 | 5252017 | 6-K 4/30/2017 |
| 1312017 | 2232017 | 6-K 1/31/2017 |
| 7312016 | 8252016 | 6-K 7/31/2016 |
| 4302016 | 5262016 | 6-K 4/30/2016 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |