Federal Home Loan Mortgage (FMCC)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $0 | Market Cap: $0Sector: Financials | Industry: Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance
Federal Home Loan Mortgage (FMCC)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $0Market Cap: $0Sector: FinancialsIndustry: Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 29%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 25%, FCF Yield is 42% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 8858% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 67%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 67%, CFO LTM is 16 Bil, FCF LTM is 16 Bil | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 289% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, Sustainable Finance, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, Show more. | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.7% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 122% | |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 107% | |
| Key risksFMCC key risks include [1] profound uncertainty regarding its prolonged government conservatorship and potential privatization, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 29%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 25%, FCF Yield is 42% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 67%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 67%, CFO LTM is 16 Bil, FCF LTM is 16 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, Sustainable Finance, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, Show more. |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 8858% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 289% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.7% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 122% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 107% |
| Key risksFMCC key risks include [1] profound uncertainty regarding its prolonged government conservatorship and potential privatization, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
FMCC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Continued Optimism for Privatization and Potential IPO
The prospects of Freddie Mac's privatization and a potential Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the end of 2025 significantly fueled investor optimism for FMCC stock. President Donald Trump's "very serious consideration" of privatizing government-sponsored enterprises like Freddie Mac, alongside Fannie Mae, has been a major driving force, with shares gaining substantially throughout the year.
2. Appointment of New CEO Kenny Smith
On December 17, 2025, Freddie Mac announced the appointment of Kenny Smith as its new CEO. This leadership change could be viewed as a positive development, particularly in anticipation of future strategic moves like a potential IPO, contributing to market confidence.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FMCC Return | -22% | -64% | -57% | 141% | 284% | 217% | 245% |
| Peers Return | � | -28% | -36% | 101% | 39% | 72% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FMCC Win Rate | 50% | 33% | 25% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 47% | 40% | 57% | 52% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FMCC Max Drawdown | -60% | -70% | -57% | 0% | -7% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | -35% | -49% | -5% | -13% | -11% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FNMA, RKT, UWMC, PFSI, NLY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | FMCC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -85.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 590.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 683 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -63.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 176.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,708 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -74.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 294.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2,195 days | 120 days |
Compare to ESNT, WD, SNFCA, GHI, FNMA
In The Past
Federal Home Loan Mortgage's stock fell -85.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/23/2021. A -85.5% loss requires a 590.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Day 6 of Gains Streak for Federal Home Loan Mortgage Stock with 26% Return (vs. 247% YTD) [9/3/2025] | Notification |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to FMCC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.4% | -2.4% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.6% | 4.6% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.0% | -9.0% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.4% | -2.4% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.6% | 4.6% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.0% | -9.0% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Federal Home Loan Mortgage
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 14.50 |
| Mkt Cap | 24.1 |
| Rev LTM | 4,534 |
| Op Inc LTM | 549 |
| FCF LTM | 345 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -248 |
| CFO LTM | 1,001 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 322 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 46.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 23.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 15.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 15.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 3.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 1.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -32.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -2.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -42.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 24.1 |
| P/S | 2.1 |
| P/EBIT | 11.7 |
| P/E | 6.8 |
| P/CFO | 1.0 |
| Total Yield | 10.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -12.9% |
| D/E | 3.0 |
| Net D/E | 2.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -18.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 26.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 45.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 140.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -18.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 14.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 33.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 61.0% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/30/2025 | 0.0% | -4.9% | -5.6% |
| 7/31/2025 | -6.1% | -2.5% | 39.1% |
| 5/1/2025 | -0.2% | 1.9% | 53.3% |
| 2/13/2025 | -3.6% | 2.4% | -19.8% |
| 10/30/2024 | -1.5% | -9.1% | 137.1% |
| 7/31/2024 | -3.3% | -8.9% | -8.9% |
| 5/1/2024 | 2.9% | 0.7% | 8.1% |
| 2/14/2024 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 13.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 11 | 12 |
| # Negative | 15 | 13 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 0.4% | 1.8% | 18.8% |
| Median Negative | -1.3% | -4.3% | -10.9% |
| Max Positive | 2.9% | 20.7% | 137.1% |
| Max Negative | -6.1% | -9.1% | -45.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2132025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2142024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2222023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2102022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |