Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.4%, FCF Yield is 8.4%
 
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -343%
 
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%
 
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 28%
 
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Digital Payments, Online Banking & Lending, and Wealth Management Technology.
 
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.4%, FCF Yield is 8.4%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -343%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 28%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Digital Payments, Online Banking & Lending, and Wealth Management Technology.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

BPOP Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Lower-than-expected revenue in Q3 2025 earnings report.

Popular, Inc. reported its financial results for the third quarter ending September 30, 2025, on October 23, 2025. While the company's earnings per share (EPS) of $3.14 surpassed the consensus estimate of $3.04, its revenue of $720.83 million fell short of analyst expectations of $803.95 million. This revenue figure also represented a 1.3% decrease compared to the same quarter in the previous year.

2. Analyst price target reductions.

During October 2025, several research firms adjusted their outlooks for Popular, Inc. UBS Group lowered its price target for BPOP from $135.00 to $127.00 and issued a "neutral" rating on October 24, 2025. Similarly, Wells Fargo & Company reportedly dropped its price objective from $150.00 to $135.00 around the same period.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
BPOP Return-0%49%-17%28%18%24%133%
Peers Return-2%12%-18%18%1%19%28%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
BPOP Win Rate42%75%42%67%42%70% 
Peers Win Rate22%25%28%35%27%51% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
BPOP Max Drawdown-57%-2%-21%-23%-3%-13% 
Peers Max Drawdown-19%-2%-23%-16%-10%-7% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NEWT, ATLO, AVBC, LSBK, NU.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventBPOPS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-48.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven93.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven487 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-59.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven147.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven302 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-29.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven41.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven183 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-94.5%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1721.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1480 days

Compare to NEWT, ATLO, AVBC, LSBK, NU


In The Past

Popular's stock fell -48.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/14/2022. A -48.4% loss requires a 93.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Popular (BPOP)

Better Bets than Popular (BPOP)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to BPOP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Popular

Peers to compare with:

Financials

BPOPNEWTATLOAVBCLSBKNUMedian
NamePopular NewtekOneAmes Nat.Avidia B.Lake Sho.Nu  
Mkt Price117.2711.3121.9516.4715.0917.4416.95
Mkt Cap8.00.30.2--84.24.1
Rev LTM2,9052696090268,967180
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM634-52020-843,65712
FCF 3Y Avg573-22916-52,31716
CFO LTM848-51920-443,94112
CFO 3Y Avg767-22818-52,50618

Growth & Margins

BPOPNEWTATLOAVBCLSBKNUMedian
NamePopular NewtekOneAmes Nat.Avidia B.Lake Sho.Nu  
Rev Chg LTM7.4%21.8%13.1%-2.1%23.7%13.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg5.7%31.6%-2.3%-0.0%70.1%5.7%
Rev Chg Q9.6%20.7%19.4%-16.5%20.4%19.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.3%4.7%4.6%-4.0%5.0%4.6%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM29.2%-193.4%33.7%-4.2%17.4%44.0%23.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg26.6%-91.8%31.7%-19.2%37.8%26.6%
FCF/Rev LTM21.8%-193.4%33.0%-8.3%15.3%40.8%18.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg19.8%-91.9%27.6%-17.8%34.9%19.8%

Valuation

BPOPNEWTATLOAVBCLSBKNUMedian
NamePopular NewtekOneAmes Nat.Avidia B.Lake Sho.Nu  
Mkt Cap8.00.30.2--84.24.1
P/S2.61.12.7--7.42.6
P/EBIT-------
P/E10.44.911.6--28.811.0
P/CFO8.8-0.67.9--16.88.4
Total Yield9.6%20.2%13.5%--3.5%11.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%4.9%--0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg10.3%-76.1%9.6%--4.3%6.9%
D/E0.22.60.2--0.00.2
Net D/E-3.41.8-4.5---0.4-1.9

Returns

BPOPNEWTATLOAVBCLSBKNUMedian
NamePopular NewtekOneAmes Nat.Avidia B.Lake Sho.Nu  
1M Rtn4.4%9.4%5.5%7.2%7.0%8.1%7.1%
3M Rtn-6.5%-6.0%13.0%9.1%13.4%17.0%11.1%
6M Rtn13.3%10.7%29.3%--46.1%21.3%
12M Rtn22.4%-14.3%32.6%--49.4%27.5%
3Y Rtn81.8%-24.8%8.7%--291.0%45.3%
1M Excs Rtn4.5%9.4%5.5%7.2%7.1%8.2%7.1%
3M Excs Rtn-12.5%-12.1%4.9%1.3%9.3%11.9%3.1%
6M Excs Rtn-1.4%-4.0%14.6%--31.3%6.6%
12M Excs Rtn7.8%-30.2%21.1%--25.6%14.5%
3Y Excs Rtn7.2%-94.1%-60.5%--240.5%-26.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Banco Popular de Puerto Rico (BPPR)2,3982,5042,2402,0392,141
Popular United States (US)376405346327319
Corporate141611876
Intersegment Eliminations-0-1-1-1-1
Eliminations-5-4-4-4-3
Total2,7823,0642,6002,3692,462


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Banco Popular de Puerto Rico (BPPR)472782787499610
Popular United States (US)56170134-155
Corporate131501396
Intersegment Eliminations0-000-0
Eliminations-00-0-0-0
Total5411,103935507671


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Banco Popular de Puerto Rico (BPPR)57,02356,19064,33755,35441,757
Popular United States (US)13,81211,55810,39910,25610,056
Corporate5,6085,3905,4595,2145,228
Intersegment Eliminations-426-422-32-34-19
Eliminations-5,259-5,079-5,065-4,864-4,908
Total70,75867,63875,09865,92652,115


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,585,594
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120253.0%
Average Daily Volume499,654
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.17
Basic Shares Quantity68,050,361
Short % of Basic Shares2.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025811202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025512202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024303202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024809202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024510202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023229202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022301202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021301202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211109202110-Q 9/30/2021