Robinhood Markets (HOOD)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $115.77 | Market Cap: $102.9 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Investment Banking & Brokerage
Robinhood Markets (HOOD)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $115.77Market Cap: $102.9 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Investment Banking & Brokerage
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 75% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 30x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 64x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 108x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 58x |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 48% | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 178% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 168% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, Crypto & Blockchain, AI in Financial Services, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Show more. | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.4% |
| Key risksHOOD key risks include [1] regulatory threats targeting its core payment for order flow (PFOF) revenue model and [2] scrutiny over past and present compliance, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 75% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 48% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, Crypto & Blockchain, AI in Financial Services, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 30x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 64x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 108x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 58x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 178% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 168% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.4% |
| Key risksHOOD key risks include [1] regulatory threats targeting its core payment for order flow (PFOF) revenue model and [2] scrutiny over past and present compliance, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
HOOD Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points highlighting the movement of Robinhood Markets (HOOD) stock from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:
**1. Robinhood's Inclusion in the S&P 500 Index.** The announcement in early September 2025 that Robinhood would join the S&P 500 index, effective September 22, 2025, led to a significant surge in the stock price. This inclusion generated immediate buying pressure as fund managers adjusted their portfolios to align with the index, with shares soaring by approximately 15.8% on September 8, 2025.
**2. Robust Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results and Strong October Operating Data.** Robinhood reported record revenues of approximately $1.3 billion for Q3 2025, more than doubling year-over-year, and EPS more than tripled to $0.61, surpassing estimates. This positive momentum continued into October, with the company reporting increased equity notional trading volumes (up 34% month-over-month and 153% year-over-year), options contracts traded (up 22% month-over-month and 69% year-over-year), and crypto notional trading volumes (up 38% month-over-month and 480% year-over-year).
**3. Explosive Growth in Prediction Markets and Strategic Acquisition.** Robinhood's prediction markets, launched in August 2025, demonstrated rapid acceleration, reaching an estimated $100 million in annualized revenues by Q3 2025 and tracking towards a $300 million run rate. Further solidifying this growth area, Robinhood agreed to acquire a 90% stake in MIAXdx, a CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange and clearinghouse, in partnership with Susquehanna, aiming to enhance infrastructure and boost long-term margins. This segment drew positive analyst commentary, with Mizuho maintaining an "Outperform" rating due to its growth potential.
**4. Strategic International Expansion into Indonesia.** In December 2025, Robinhood announced its entry into Indonesia through agreements to acquire an Indonesian brokerage (PT Buana Capital Sekuritas) and a licensed digital financial asset trader (PT Pedagang Aset Kripto). This move is set to accelerate Robinhood's expansion across Southeast Asia and globally, leveraging Indonesia's growing capital market and crypto investor base.
**5. Mixed November 2025 Operating Data Leading to a Stock Decline.** Despite strong year-over-year growth in total platform assets (up 67%) and margin balances (up 147%), Robinhood's November 2025 operating data, reported in December, showed sequential declines in key metrics. Funded customers decreased by 130,000 from October (primarily due to the escheatment of approximately 280,000 low-balance accounts), and trading volumes for equities, options, and crypto also saw month-over-month decreases. This mixed report contributed to a stock drop of 9.1% on December 11, 2025.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HOOD Return | � | � | -54% | 57% | 192% | 220% | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | -35% | 104% | 52% | 39% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HOOD Win Rate | � | 20% | 50% | 42% | 58% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | 52% | 45% | 55% | 58% | 63% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HOOD Max Drawdown | � | � | -61% | -3% | -17% | -8% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | -49% | -14% | -18% | -24% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SCHW, IBKR, COIN, SOFI, MS.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HOOD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -90.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 921.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,083 days | 464 days |
Compare to SCHW, COIN, IBKR, FRHC, MS
In The Past
Robinhood Markets's stock fell -90.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/4/2021. A -90.2% loss requires a 921.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to HOOD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.4% | -2.4% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.6% | 4.6% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.0% | -9.0% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.4% | -2.4% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.6% | 4.6% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.0% | -9.0% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Robinhood Markets
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 106.20 |
| Mkt Cap | 82.6 |
| Rev LTM | 8,456 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,004 |
| FCF LTM | -139 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,008 |
| CFO LTM | 211 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,044 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 28.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 28.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 22.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 47.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 9.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 27.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 82.6 |
| P/S | 8.4 |
| P/EBIT | 24.2 |
| P/E | 31.8 |
| P/CFO | -4.3 |
| Total Yield | 3.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.8% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -1.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 26.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 40.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 355.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -5.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 13.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 29.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 286.6% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/31/2025 | 0.2% | -11.2% | -9.0% |
| 7/30/2025 | -2.9% | -0.4% | -2.3% |
| 4/30/2025 | -5.1% | 1.8% | 34.7% |
| 1/31/2025 | -0.1% | 7.5% | -11.0% |
| 10/30/2024 | -16.7% | 5.8% | 33.1% |
| 7/31/2024 | -1.6% | -16.8% | -1.9% |
| 4/30/2024 | 1.0% | 9.1% | 32.4% |
| 1/31/2024 | 1.6% | 2.4% | 54.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 12 | 8 |
| # Negative | 9 | 5 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 1.8% | 5.5% | 18.0% |
| Median Negative | -2.8% | -11.2% | -9.0% |
| Max Positive | 11.7% | 21.9% | 54.4% |
| Max Negative | -16.7% | -16.8% | -17.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2182025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |