Tearsheet

Allstate (ALL)


Market Price (12/17/2025): $209.54 | Market Cap: $55.1 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance

Allstate (ALL)


Market Price (12/17/2025): $209.54
Market Cap: $55.1 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 17%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 12%, FCF Yield is 15%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.1%, Dist 3Y High is -2.1%
Key risks
ALL key risks include [1] significant pressure on profitability from escalating catastrophe losses and [2] potential customer attrition due to its strategy of implementing price increases while competitors lower theirs.
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 8.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 8.6 Bil
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 26%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Transformation in Insurance, Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, and Climate & Catastrophe Risk Management. Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 17%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 12%, FCF Yield is 15%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 8.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 8.6 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 26%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Transformation in Insurance, Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, and Climate & Catastrophe Risk Management. Show more.
4 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.1%, Dist 3Y High is -2.1%
5 Key risks
ALL key risks include [1] significant pressure on profitability from escalating catastrophe losses and [2] potential customer attrition due to its strategy of implementing price increases while competitors lower theirs.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ALL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

I cannot provide specific real-time or future stock performance analysis as an AI. The requested time period (August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025) is in the future. Therefore, I do not have access to the necessary information regarding Allstate's stock movements and associated news events for that specific future timeframe.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ALL Return-0%10%18%6%41%11%115%
Peers Return6%27%19%7%34%13%159%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ALL Win Rate42%42%75%67%58%58% 
Peers Win Rate62%55%58%60%70%60% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ALL Max Drawdown-35%-6%-2%-24%0%-6% 
Peers Max Drawdown-39%-5%-6%-17%-0%-8% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PGR, TRV, CB, HIG, MET. See ALL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventALLS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-28.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven39.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven150 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-41.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven71.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven400 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-26.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven35.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven219 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-78.4%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven362.9%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven2067 days1480 days

Compare to TRV, MET, AIG, HIG, PRU


In The Past

Allstate's stock fell -28.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/6/2023. A -28.4% loss requires a 39.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Allstate (ALL)

Better Bets than Allstate (ALL)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ALL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.1%5.1%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.4%-2.4%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.6%4.6%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-9.0%-9.0%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.1%5.1%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.4%-2.4%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.6%4.6%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-9.0%-9.0%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Allstate

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ALLPGRTRVCBHIGMETMedian
NameAllstate Progress.Traveler.Chubb Hartford.MetLife  
Mkt Price209.15227.17291.25312.83138.4882.57218.16
Mkt Cap55.0144.865.3124.338.954.960.1
Rev LTM66,20685,16648,40958,90027,69270,76062,553
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM8,63617,0499,98513,3215,86514,62711,653
FCF 3Y Avg6,85513,4208,68213,4094,92213,54511,046
CFO LTM8,82617,3869,98513,3215,98814,62711,653
CFO 3Y Avg7,08313,6908,68213,4095,10913,54511,046

Growth & Margins

ALLPGRTRVCBHIGMETMedian
NameAllstate Progress.Traveler.Chubb Hartford.MetLife  
Rev Chg LTM6.9%18.4%6.7%6.7%6.9%0.2%6.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg10.1%20.6%10.1%12.2%8.6%1.3%10.1%
Rev Chg Q3.4%14.2%4.8%8.2%6.4%-7.7%5.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.9%3.4%1.2%2.2%1.6%-2.0%1.4%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM13.3%20.4%20.6%22.6%21.6%20.7%20.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg11.4%18.7%19.4%24.8%19.6%19.6%19.5%
FCF/Rev LTM13.0%20.0%20.6%22.6%21.2%20.7%20.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg11.0%18.4%19.4%24.8%18.9%19.6%19.1%

Valuation

ALLPGRTRVCBHIGMETMedian
NameAllstate Progress.Traveler.Chubb Hartford.MetLife  
Mkt Cap55.0144.865.3124.338.954.960.1
P/S0.91.71.31.91.40.81.3
P/EBIT5.1-8.18.58.19.28.1
P/E6.713.510.711.610.514.311.1
P/CFO6.48.36.38.46.33.76.3
Total Yield16.6%9.4%10.2%10.0%11.1%9.8%10.1%
Dividend Yield1.8%2.0%0.8%1.3%1.6%2.8%1.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg14.8%-17.2%12.9%15.8%25.3%15.8%
D/E0.1-0.10.20.10.40.1
Net D/E-0.0--1.4-0.2-0.5-1.7-0.5

Returns

ALLPGRTRVCBHIGMETMedian
NameAllstate Progress.Traveler.Chubb Hartford.MetLife  
1M Rtn0.4%0.8%2.8%6.2%5.3%9.3%4.0%
3M Rtn6.5%-6.7%6.3%15.3%6.5%5.7%6.4%
6M Rtn7.9%-12.7%10.8%11.6%11.8%6.7%9.4%
12M Rtn10.3%-6.4%21.5%14.6%29.1%4.6%12.4%
3Y Rtn71.0%85.0%68.7%54.3%97.8%26.8%69.8%
1M Excs Rtn-0.3%0.1%2.0%5.4%4.6%8.6%3.3%
3M Excs Rtn0.8%-7.4%3.9%13.1%4.5%3.8%3.8%
6M Excs Rtn-4.5%-25.0%-1.6%-0.8%-0.6%-5.7%-3.0%
12M Excs Rtn-2.4%-19.0%9.1%3.7%14.6%-8.7%0.7%
3Y Excs Rtn5.7%11.7%-3.7%-17.7%27.2%-44.6%1.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Property-Liability51,89846,63846,03038,84838,587
Protection Services2,7732,4872,3611,9221,649
Allstate Health and Benefits2,3782,2592,2611,1801,240
Corporate and Other18317611110694
Intersegment eliminations-138-149-175-147-154
Allstate Annuities    1,276
Allstate Life    1,983
Total57,09451,41150,58841,90944,675


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Property-Liability88,56882,74484,84669,17167,243
Protection Services7,2926,9226,9096,1775,746
Allstate Health and Benefits4,0323,7524,0152,9052,915
Corporate and Other3,4704,5713,6705,6032,361
Assets held for sale   42,131 
Allstate Annuities    26,914
Allstate Life    14,771
Total103,36297,98999,440125,987119,950


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4,270,803
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202528.7%
Average Daily Volume1,626,356
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.63
Basic Shares Quantity263,100,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.6%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/5/20251.7%7.4%3.6%
7/30/20255.7%8.7%6.0%
4/30/2025-0.6%2.9%5.8%
2/5/2025-0.6%-1.9%4.0%
10/30/2024-1.5%-0.3%10.0%
7/31/20243.7%-0.3%10.1%
4/18/20243.8%5.7%3.8%
1/18/20240.2%3.2%6.1%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive101219
# Negative14125
Median Positive3.7%4.7%5.8%
Median Negative-1.7%-3.0%-9.1%
Max Positive5.9%8.7%14.0%
Max Negative-12.9%-9.5%-13.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025730202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025430202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024224202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241030202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024731202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024501202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023221202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231101202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023801202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022216202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221102202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022504202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021218202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0WILSON THOMAS JChairman, President & CEO11192025Sell213.1215,3703,275,59134,749,931Form
1WILSON THOMAS JChairman, President & CEO11042025Sell188.735,9301,119,17235,727,343Form