Victory Capital (VCTR)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $62.7 | Market Cap: $4.2 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
Victory Capital (VCTR)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $62.7Market Cap: $4.2 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, Dividend Yield is 3.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.1%, FCF Yield is 7.7% | Key risksVCTR key risks include [1] failing to successfully integrate significant acquisitions and realize expected synergies. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 37% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, Digital & Alternative Assets, and Sustainable Finance. Themes include Wealth Management Technology, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, Dividend Yield is 3.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.1%, FCF Yield is 7.7% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 37% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, Digital & Alternative Assets, and Sustainable Finance. Themes include Wealth Management Technology, Show more. |
| Key risksVCTR key risks include [1] failing to successfully integrate significant acquisitions and realize expected synergies. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
VCTR Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Victory Capital (VCTR) experienced a stock movement of approximately -8.6% between August 31, 2025, and December 17, 2025, influenced by several key factors. The closing price for Victory Capital Holdings on December 12, 2025, was $63.55 or $63.56.
1. Q3 2025 Revenue Miss: Victory Capital reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results on November 6, 2025, revealing that its revenue of $361.2 million fell short of the analyst consensus estimate of approximately $370.9 million. This revenue miss likely contributed to negative investor sentiment.
2. Stock Dip Following Earnings Report: Despite adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.63 surpassing analyst forecasts, Victory Capital's stock closed at $61.68 on November 6, 2025, marking a 1.3% decline after the earnings announcement. This immediate negative market reaction indicates investor concerns overshadowing the earnings beat.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| VCTR Return | 20% | 50% | -24% | 33% | 96% | 1% | 261% |
| Peers Return | 42% | 34% | -22% | 24% | 20% | 15% | 154% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 110% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| VCTR Win Rate | 50% | 75% | 42% | 75% | 75% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 57% | 42% | 55% | 60% | 57% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| VCTR Max Drawdown | -38% | -14% | -37% | 0% | -5% | -21% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -50% | -7% | -39% | -10% | -8% | -24% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AMG, APAM, VRTS, FHI, JHG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/16/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | VCTR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -46.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 86.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 622 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -45.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 82.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 286 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -43.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 77.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 136 days | 120 days |
Compare to VRTS, SLRC, DHIL, GEG, BLKS
In The Past
Victory Capital's stock fell -46.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/5/2021. A -46.4% loss requires a 86.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to VCTR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.4% | -2.4% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.6% | 4.6% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.0% | -9.0% | -11.0% |
| 06302024 | VCTR | Victory Capital | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 40.8% | 37.3% | -5.1% |
| 02292020 | VCTR | Victory Capital | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -13.6% | 21.6% | -34.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.4% | -2.4% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.6% | 4.6% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.0% | -9.0% | -11.0% |
| 06302024 | VCTR | Victory Capital | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 40.8% | 37.3% | -5.1% |
| 02292020 | VCTR | Victory Capital | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -13.6% | 21.6% | -34.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Victory Capital
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 58.16 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.1 |
| Rev LTM | 1,453 |
| Op Inc LTM | 505 |
| FCF LTM | 307 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 313 |
| CFO LTM | 309 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 317 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 27.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 29.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 24.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 25.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 24.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 25.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.1 |
| P/S | 2.5 |
| P/EBIT | 6.8 |
| P/E | 11.6 |
| P/CFO | 11.7 |
| Total Yield | 12.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 10.0% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 15.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 4.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 71.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -5.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 2.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -9.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -3.1% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/6/2025 | -0.8% | 2.7% | 1.5% |
| 8/7/2025 | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.3% |
| 5/8/2025 | -1.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% |
| 2/6/2025 | 7.5% | 4.4% | -14.3% |
| 11/7/2024 | 4.1% | 0.0% | 3.3% |
| 8/8/2024 | 4.2% | 9.4% | 10.7% |
| 5/9/2024 | -6.8% | -0.4% | -6.0% |
| 2/8/2024 | 5.4% | 4.7% | 14.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 16 | 16 | 17 |
| # Negative | 8 | 8 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.8% |
| Median Negative | -1.7% | -2.6% | -8.8% |
| Max Positive | 11.6% | 13.7% | 27.6% |
| Max Negative | -6.8% | -6.1% | -36.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5092025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8092024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5102024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5082023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3062023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11072022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8082022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3142022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |