Jefferies Financial (JEF)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $58.44 | Market Cap: $12.6 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Multi-Sector Holdings
Jefferies Financial (JEF)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $58.44Market Cap: $12.6 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Multi-Sector Holdings
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.2% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 87% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 44% | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -18% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, and Sustainable Finance. Themes include Private Equity, Private Credit, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.2% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 44% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets, and Sustainable Finance. Themes include Private Equity, Private Credit, Show more. |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 87% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -18% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
JEF Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the approximate -9.3% stock movement for Jefferies Financial (JEF) from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Significant Exposure to Bankrupt First Brands Group: Jefferies Financial Group disclosed a substantial exposure of approximately $715 million through its trade finance arm, Point Bonita Capital, to First Brands Group, an auto parts supplier that filed for bankruptcy in September 2025. This announcement on October 8, 2025, led to an approximate 8% drop in Jefferies' stock price that day, falling from $59.10 to $54.44 per share.
2. SEC Probe into Disclosure Practices and Internal Controls: On November 27, 2025, it was reported that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) launched a probe into Jefferies. The investigation is reportedly seeking information on whether the firm adequately informed investors in its Point Bonita fund about their exposure to the now-bankrupt First Brands Group. The SEC is also examining Jefferies' internal controls and potential conflicts of interest within its different banking divisions, further adding to investor uncertainty.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| JEF Return | 19% | 62% | -8% | 28% | 99% | -26% | 236% |
| Peers Return | 4% | 35% | -15% | 17% | 42% | 38% | 171% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| JEF Win Rate | 83% | 67% | 33% | 58% | 83% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 63% | 42% | 50% | 65% | 68% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| JEF Max Drawdown | -43% | -6% | -31% | -11% | -4% | -47% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -47% | -2% | -29% | -14% | -4% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: JPM, BAC, MS, GS, C. See JEF Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | JEF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -40.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 67.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 636 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -49.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 96.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 208 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -41.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 70.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 780 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -80.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 419.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 5610 days | 1480 days |
Compare to JPM, BAC, MS, GS, C
In The Past
Jefferies Financial's stock fell -40.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/3/2021. A -40.4% loss requires a 67.7% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to JEF. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Jefferies Financial
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 140.22 |
| Mkt Cap | 266.0 |
| Rev LTM | 74,746 |
| Op Inc LTM | 4,693 |
| FCF LTM | -4,359 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -27,669 |
| CFO LTM | -2,714 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -24,915 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 43.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 43.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -11.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -37.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -14.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -40.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 266.0 |
| P/S | 3.7 |
| P/EBIT | 3.2 |
| P/E | 14.9 |
| P/CFO | -5.0 |
| Total Yield | 6.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -16.2% |
| D/E | 1.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 10.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 30.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 33.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 122.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 15.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 18.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 52.9% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 8312025 | 10092025 | 10-Q 8/31/2025 |
| 5312025 | 7092025 | 10-Q 5/31/2025 |
| 2282025 | 4092025 | 10-Q 2/28/2025 |
| 11302024 | 1282025 | 10-K 11/30/2024 |
| 8312024 | 10092024 | 10-Q 8/31/2024 |
| 5312024 | 7092024 | 10-Q 5/31/2024 |
| 2292024 | 4052024 | 10-Q 2/29/2024 |
| 11302023 | 1262024 | 10-K 11/30/2023 |
| 8312023 | 10062023 | 10-Q 8/31/2023 |
| 5312023 | 7072023 | 10-Q 5/31/2023 |
| 2282023 | 4102023 | 10-Q 2/28/2023 |
| 11302022 | 1272023 | 10-K 11/30/2022 |
| 8312022 | 10072022 | 10-Q 8/31/2022 |
| 5312022 | 7082022 | 10-Q 5/31/2022 |
| 2282022 | 4082022 | 10-Q 2/28/2022 |
| 11302021 | 1282022 | 10-K 11/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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