Travelers Companies (TRV)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $291.11 | Market Cap: $65.2 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance
Travelers Companies (TRV)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $291.11Market Cap: $65.2 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Property & Casualty Insurance
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.0%, FCF Yield is 16% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.3%, Dist 3Y High is -1.3% | Key risksTRV key risks include [1] substantial losses from catastrophic events exacerbated by climate change, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -143% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -7.7% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, CFO LTM is 10.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 10.0 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 22% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include AI in Financial Services, Cybersecurity, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Sustainable Infrastructure, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.0%, FCF Yield is 16% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -143% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, CFO LTM is 10.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 10.0 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 22% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include AI in Financial Services, Cybersecurity, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Sustainable Infrastructure, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.3%, Dist 3Y High is -1.3% |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -7.7% |
| Key risksTRV key risks include [1] substantial losses from catastrophic events exacerbated by climate change, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TRV Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Travelers Companies (TRV) experienced an approximate 7.5% increase in its stock price between August 31, 2025, and December 17, 2025, driven by several key factors:
**1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Performance.**
Travelers reported excellent third-quarter 2025 results on October 16, 2025. The company announced a core income of $1.9 billion, or $8.14 per diluted share, representing a 55% increase from the prior year. This strong performance also led to a core return on equity of 22.6% for the quarter. Underwriting income more than doubled to $1.4 billion pre-tax, supported by an improved underlying combined ratio of 83.9%. Net investment income also rose significantly by 15% after-tax to $850 million.
**2. Favorable Catastrophe Loss Experience.**
A significant contributor to the strong underwriting results in the third quarter was a substantial reduction in catastrophe losses. These losses were reported at $402 million pre-tax, which was considerably lower than the $939 million recorded in the same quarter of the previous year. This benign catastrophe environment allowed for improved profitability for the insurer.
**3. Robust Capital Management and Shareholder Returns.**
Travelers demonstrated a strong commitment to returning capital to shareholders. During the third quarter of 2025, the company returned nearly $900 million in excess capital, including $628 million through share repurchases. Furthermore, Travelers outlined plans for increased share repurchases in the fourth quarter, projecting approximately $1.3 billion, with a total outlook of about $3.5 billion in repurchases spanning from Q3 2025 through Q1 2026, targeting a 5% reduction in share count.
**4. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Upward Price Target Revisions.**
Throughout October and November 2025, several financial analysts revised their price targets for Travelers upward. For instance, Morgan Stanley raised its price target from $285.00 to $295.00 in November, and Piper Sandler increased its target from $320.00 to $322.00 in October. This reflects a generally positive outlook and increased confidence in the company's future stock performance from the analyst community.
**5. Strategic Business Realignment.**
Travelers advanced its strategic repositioning efforts, notably by securing all regulatory approvals for the sale of its Canadian personal insurance and most of its commercial insurance businesses to Definity Financial Corporation. This transaction, initially announced in mid-2025, is expected to close in early 2026 and could be viewed positively by investors as it streamlines the company's focus and potentially enhances its core business efficiency.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TRV Return | 5% | 14% | 22% | 4% | 29% | 23% | 141% |
| Peers Return | 1% | 29% | 17% | 10% | 33% | 15% | 159% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 110% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TRV Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 58% | 58% | 75% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 52% | 62% | 62% | 65% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TRV Max Drawdown | -40% | -4% | -2% | -14% | 0% | -4% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -40% | -5% | -7% | -18% | -0% | -6% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PGR, CB, ALL, HIG, AIG. See TRV Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/16/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TRV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -19.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 58 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -42.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 73.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 301 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 172 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -46.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 86.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 755 days | 1480 days |
Compare to ALL, MET, AIG, PRU, PGR
In The Past
Travelers Companies's stock fell -19.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/25/2022. A -19.8% loss requires a 24.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TRV. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.4% | -2.4% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.6% | 4.6% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.0% | -9.0% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.4% | -2.4% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.6% | 4.6% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.0% | -9.0% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Travelers Companies
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 220.66 |
| Mkt Cap | 60.0 |
| Rev LTM | 53,654 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 9,310 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 7,768 |
| CFO LTM | 9,406 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 7,883 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 20.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 20.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 60.0 |
| P/S | 1.5 |
| P/EBIT | 8.1 |
| P/E | 11.1 |
| P/CFO | 7.4 |
| Total Yield | 10.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 14.8% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 7.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 8.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 16.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 69.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -5.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 4.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -2.9% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/16/2025 | -2.9% | -0.4% | 6.7% |
| 7/17/2025 | 3.8% | 5.0% | 6.5% |
| 4/16/2025 | 1.1% | 3.8% | 8.5% |
| 1/22/2025 | 3.2% | 3.9% | 0.9% |
| 10/17/2024 | 9.0% | 5.9% | 5.6% |
| 7/19/2024 | -7.8% | -5.2% | -1.8% |
| 4/17/2024 | -7.4% | -3.9% | -3.9% |
| 1/19/2024 | 6.7% | 6.6% | 9.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 15 | 17 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.6% |
| Median Negative | -4.7% | -4.5% | -4.3% |
| Max Positive | 9.0% | 8.7% | 20.7% |
| Max Negative | -8.3% | -8.9% | -8.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10162025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7172025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4162025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2132025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10172024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7192024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4172024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2152024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10182023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7202023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4192023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2162023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10192022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7212022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4192022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2172022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
