Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.0%, FCF Yield is 7.7%
Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -7.4%
 
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -60%
Moderate capital ratio
Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 11%
 
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 41%
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 29%
  
4 Uninsured deposits are low
Uninsured Deposits Ratio %Fraction of deposits that exceed the insurance deposit thresholds. For example, the FDIC protects deposits up to $250K. A high uninsured deposits ratio indicates large accounts and greater potential exposure to bank run risk. is 30%
  
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Digital Payments, Online Banking & Lending, and Wealth Management Technology.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.0%, FCF Yield is 7.7%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -60%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 42%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 41%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 29%
4 Uninsured deposits are low
Uninsured Deposits Ratio %Fraction of deposits that exceed the insurance deposit thresholds. For example, the FDIC protects deposits up to $250K. A high uninsured deposits ratio indicates large accounts and greater potential exposure to bank run risk. is 30%
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Digital Payments, Online Banking & Lending, and Wealth Management Technology.
6 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -7.4%
7 Moderate capital ratio
Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 11%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

NIC Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Between August 31, 2025, and December 3, 2025, Nicolet Bankshares (NIC) experienced a stock price decline, with several key factors potentially contributing to this negative movement.

1. Acquisition Announcement and Shareholder Concerns: On October 24, 2025, Nicolet Bankshares disclosed an $864 million agreement to acquire MidWestOne in a stock-for-stock transaction. This substantial acquisition and the nature of the stock deal prompted immediate investigations by shareholder alert firms into the fairness of the merger terms, which likely introduced uncertainty and downward pressure on the stock.

2. Removal from Russell Indices: The company's recent exclusion from several Russell indices was identified as a significant factor that could negatively impact trading volumes and institutional demand. Such index removals often lead to mandatory selling by passive index funds, contributing to stock price weakness.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
NIC Return-10%29%-7%2%32%21%76%
Peers Return-2%12%-18%18%1%19%28%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NIC Win Rate50%50%42%58%58%70% 
Peers Win Rate22%25%28%35%27%51% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NIC Max Drawdown-36%0%-18%-32%-8%-4% 
Peers Max Drawdown-19%-2%-23%-16%-10%-7% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NEWT, ATLO, AVBC, LSBK, NU.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventNICS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-44.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven79.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven440 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-36.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven56.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven279 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-24.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven32.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven128 days120 days

Compare to NEWT, ATLO, AVBC, LSBK, NU


In The Past

Nicolet Bankshares's stock fell -44.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/14/2022. A -44.3% loss requires a 79.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Nicolet Bankshares (NIC)

Better Bets than Nicolet Bankshares (NIC)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to NIC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Nicolet Bankshares

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NICNEWTATLOAVBCLSBKNUMedian
NameNicolet .NewtekOneAmes Nat.Avidia B.Lake Sho.Nu  
Mkt Price128.8811.3121.9516.4715.0917.4416.95
Mkt Cap1.90.30.2--84.21.1
Rev LTM3792696090268,967180
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM154-52020-843,65712
FCF 3Y Avg119-22916-52,31716
CFO LTM160-51920-443,94112
CFO 3Y Avg133-22818-52,50618

Growth & Margins

NICNEWTATLOAVBCLSBKNUMedian
NameNicolet .NewtekOneAmes Nat.Avidia B.Lake Sho.Nu  
Rev Chg LTM9.3%21.8%13.1%-2.1%23.7%13.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg10.9%31.6%-2.3%-0.0%70.1%10.9%
Rev Chg Q13.4%20.7%19.4%-16.5%20.4%19.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.3%4.7%4.6%-4.0%5.0%4.6%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM42.2%-193.4%33.7%-4.2%17.4%44.0%25.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg39.7%-91.8%31.7%-19.2%37.8%31.7%
FCF/Rev LTM40.5%-193.4%33.0%-8.3%15.3%40.8%24.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg35.4%-91.9%27.6%-17.8%34.9%27.6%

Valuation

NICNEWTATLOAVBCLSBKNUMedian
NameNicolet .NewtekOneAmes Nat.Avidia B.Lake Sho.Nu  
Mkt Cap1.90.30.2--84.21.1
P/S5.31.12.7--7.44.0
P/EBIT-------
P/E13.84.911.6--28.812.7
P/CFO12.5-0.67.9--16.810.2
Total Yield8.2%20.2%13.5%--3.5%10.9%
Dividend Yield0.9%0.0%4.9%--0.0%0.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg8.1%-76.1%9.6%--4.3%6.2%
D/E0.12.60.2--0.00.1
Net D/E-0.61.8-4.5---0.4-0.5

Returns

NICNEWTATLOAVBCLSBKNUMedian
NameNicolet .NewtekOneAmes Nat.Avidia B.Lake Sho.Nu  
1M Rtn6.8%9.4%5.5%7.2%7.0%8.1%7.1%
3M Rtn-5.2%-6.0%13.0%9.1%13.4%17.0%11.1%
6M Rtn10.6%10.7%29.3%--46.1%20.0%
12M Rtn17.0%-14.3%32.6%--49.4%24.8%
3Y Rtn62.0%-24.8%8.7%--291.0%35.4%
1M Excs Rtn6.8%9.4%5.5%7.2%7.1%8.2%7.1%
3M Excs Rtn-11.7%-12.1%4.9%1.3%9.3%11.9%3.1%
6M Excs Rtn-4.1%-4.0%14.6%--31.3%5.3%
12M Excs Rtn3.3%-30.2%21.1%--25.6%12.2%
3Y Excs Rtn-7.4%-94.1%-60.5%--240.5%-34.0%

FDIC Bank Data

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Banking Segment278298225192170
Total278298225192170


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity472,687
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202531.8%
Average Daily Volume128,490
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.68
Basic Shares Quantity14,835,670
Short % of Basic Shares3.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251031202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025801202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025429202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024225202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241101202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024805202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231107202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023804202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023502202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022224202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221101202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022808202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022429202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021225202210-K 12/31/2021