Tearsheet

Annaly Capital Management (NLY)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $22.51 | Market Cap: $14.8 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Mortgage REITs

Annaly Capital Management (NLY)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $22.51
Market Cap: $14.8 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Mortgage REITs

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.1%, FCF Yield is 15%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.0%, Dist 3Y High is -2.0%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 220%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 474%
Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -13%
Key risks
NLY key risks include [1] severe margin and book value compression from adverse interest rate shifts, Show more.
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 168%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 115%, CFO LTM is 2.9 Bil
  
3 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -43%
  
4 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 22%
  
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Housing & Mortgage Finance. Themes include Mortgage-Backed Securities Investment, Residential Real Estate Finance, and Capital Markets for Real Estate.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.1%, FCF Yield is 15%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 474%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 168%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 115%, CFO LTM is 2.9 Bil
3 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -43%
4 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 22%
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Housing & Mortgage Finance. Themes include Mortgage-Backed Securities Investment, Residential Real Estate Finance, and Capital Markets for Real Estate.
6 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.0%, Dist 3Y High is -2.0%
7 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -13%
8 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 220%
9 Key risks
NLY key risks include [1] severe margin and book value compression from adverse interest rate shifts, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

NLY Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Annaly Capital Management (NLY) experienced several notable developments between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025. During this period, NLY's stock price showed positive momentum, with a reported 20 percent year-to-date return as of December 17, 2025, and a 30 percent one-year total shareholder return. The stock gained 1.36% on December 17, 2025, closing at $22.42. Here are the key points for the stock's movement: 1. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Performance: Annaly Capital Management reported robust third-quarter 2025 results on October 22-23, 2025, with earnings available for distribution (EAD) of $0.73 per share, surpassing analyst expectations of $0.72 per share. The company's economic return was 8.1% for the quarter and 11.5% year-to-date. Net income rose to $832.45 million with a diluted EPS of $1.20, significantly above the prior year. This strong financial performance likely contributed to investor confidence.

2. Increased Book Value and Portfolio Growth: The company's book value per common share increased by 4.3% from the previous quarter, rising from $18.45 to $19.25 after accounting for a dividend. Annaly's total investment portfolio also reached $97.8 billion, a 10% quarter-over-quarter growth in its Agency portfolio to $87.3 billion. This expansion and improved asset valuation signaled a healthy financial position.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
NLY Return2%2%-21%5%8%34%26%
Peers Return-10%16%-19%22%5%18%29%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NLY Win Rate50%50%58%58%58%58% 
Peers Win Rate63%57%48%52%62%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NLY Max Drawdown-56%-4%-46%-23%-5%-2% 
Peers Max Drawdown-61%-4%-30%-15%-9%-7% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AGNC, RITM, STWD, BXMT, DX. See NLY Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventNLYS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-60.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven152.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-61.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven161.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-33.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven51.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-46.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven87.3%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1,480 days

Compare to LAMR, EGP, CUBE, NNN, COLD


In The Past

Annaly Capital Management's stock fell -60.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/9/2021. A -60.4% loss requires a 152.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Annaly Capital Management (NLY)

Better Bets than Annaly Capital Management (NLY)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to NLY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.1%5.1%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.4%-2.4%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.6%4.6%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-9.0%-9.0%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.1%5.1%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.4%-2.4%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.6%4.6%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-9.0%-9.0%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Annaly Capital Management

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NLYAGNCRITMSTWDBXMTDXMedian
NameAnnaly C.AGNC Inv.Rithm Ca.Starwood.Blacksto.Dynex Ca. 
Mkt Price22.4210.4411.1518.5020.3113.7016.10
Mkt Cap14.711.06.07.03.51.96.5
Rev LTM1,7039562,981767508230861
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM1,953604-2,936714224122414
FCF 3Y Avg1,260196-1,26030336571249
CFO LTM2,857604-2,931785224122414
CFO 3Y Avg1,976196-1,21634436571270

Growth & Margins

NLYAGNCRITMSTWDBXMTDXMedian
NameAnnaly C.AGNC Inv.Rithm Ca.Starwood.Blacksto.Dynex Ca. 
Rev Chg LTM473.5%-24.1%25.7%-27.4%-4.6%87.1%10.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg143.3%108.3%-3.7%-16.5%-4.5%63.4%29.8%
Rev Chg Q637.1%122.3%45.4%-13.2%21.1%309.0%83.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM81.6%92.7%8.0%-3.9%4.8%113.8%44.8%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM167.8%63.2%-98.3%102.3%44.1%52.8%58.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-21.0%-41.9%41.6%61.8%77.6%41.6%
FCF/Rev LTM114.7%63.2%-98.5%93.1%44.1%52.8%58.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-21.0%-43.8%36.8%61.8%77.6%36.8%

Valuation

NLYAGNCRITMSTWDBXMTDXMedian
NameAnnaly C.AGNC Inv.Rithm Ca.Starwood.Blacksto.Dynex Ca. 
Mkt Cap14.711.06.07.03.51.96.5
P/S7.810.82.19.16.27.37.5
P/EBIT-------
P/E8.912.37.019.029.59.010.7
P/CFO4.617.1-2.18.914.113.711.3
Total Yield11.3%8.1%14.4%14.6%13.6%11.1%12.5%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%9.4%10.2%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg11.4%1.9%-19.8%-10.6%6.8%6.8%
D/E2.20.05.3-5.00.02.2
Net D/E2.2-0.03.6-4.9-0.32.2

Returns

NLYAGNCRITMSTWDBXMTDXMedian
NameAnnaly C.AGNC Inv.Rithm Ca.Starwood.Blacksto.Dynex Ca. 
1M Rtn4.3%4.6%2.7%4.9%10.7%1.5%4.4%
3M Rtn5.9%6.0%-8.5%-6.5%7.7%14.3%5.9%
6M Rtn25.5%21.4%4.0%-3.2%10.5%21.6%15.9%
12M Rtn32.5%26.7%10.4%2.8%20.4%27.4%23.5%
3Y Rtn58.5%60.9%86.0%30.6%27.2%59.8%59.1%
1M Excs Rtn3.5%3.8%1.9%4.2%10.0%0.7%3.7%
3M Excs Rtn5.5%5.8%-8.6%-8.0%5.8%13.9%5.7%
6M Excs Rtn13.1%9.0%-8.4%-15.6%-1.9%9.3%3.5%
12M Excs Rtn19.4%15.5%-1.4%-9.8%5.3%15.3%10.3%
3Y Excs Rtn-13.1%-3.8%-0.5%-45.3%-49.3%-10.9%-12.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment  2,720-585-1,992
Total  2,720-585-1,992


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Resi-credit (Residential Credit)30320   
Mortgage servicing rights (MSR)29081   
Corporate & Other-169-128   
Agency-2,2081,641   
Total-1,7851,615   


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Agency71,16765,080   
Resi-credit (Residential Credit)19,14914,153   
Mortgage servicing rights (MSR)2,5791,931   
Corporate & Other332686   
Total93,22781,851   


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity11,767,179
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-2.2%
Average Daily Volume7,062,216
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.67
Basic Shares Quantity656,335,974
Short % of Basic Shares1.8%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/22/2025-1.9%-3.0%1.5%
7/23/20250.5%0.6%0.4%
4/30/2025-0.9%-2.4%-3.3%
1/29/20253.6%3.9%11.1%
10/23/20240.8%-1.1%1.2%
7/24/2024-1.3%0.1%-0.1%
4/24/20240.6%2.1%4.0%
2/7/20241.2%-1.2%5.7%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive161315
# Negative91210
Median Positive1.5%2.1%3.1%
Median Negative-1.9%-2.7%-4.5%
Max Positive11.6%12.2%25.9%
Max Negative-5.8%-6.1%-31.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025730202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024213202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024729202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023215202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022216202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022801202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022504202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021218202210-K 12/31/2021