Rithm Capital (RITM)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $11.4 | Market Cap: $6.2 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Mortgage REITs
Rithm Capital (RITM)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $11.4Market Cap: $6.2 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Mortgage REITs
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -18% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 362% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.7% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -98%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -99% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Equity, Private Credit, and Venture Capital. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Private Equity, Private Credit, and Venture Capital. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -18% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 362% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.7% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -98%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -99% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
RITM Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
I cannot provide information on Rithm Capital's stock movement for the period from 8/31/2025 to 12/4/2025, as this time frame is in the future.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| RITM Return | -34% | 17% | -14% | 46% | 11% | 12% | 19% |
| Peers Return | 8% | 35% | -28% | 7% | 10% | 9% | 34% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| RITM Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 42% | 67% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 63% | 45% | 50% | 53% | 46% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| RITM Max Drawdown | -79% | -6% | -29% | -7% | -5% | -10% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -54% | -9% | -37% | -27% | -15% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: KRG, KRC, HASI, IRT, BXMT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | RITM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -38.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 700 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -81.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 429.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -25.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
Compare to KRG, KRC, HASI, IRT, BXMT
In The Past
Rithm Capital's stock fell -38.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/4/2022. A -38.2% loss requires a 61.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Rithm Capital (RITM) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Rithm Capital (RITM) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Rithm Capital (RITM) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Rithm Capital (RITM) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | ||
| Rithm Capital (RITM) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| Rithm Capital (RITM) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Rithm Capital (RITM) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | ||
| Why Rithm Capital Stock Moved: RITM Stock Has Gained 84% Since 2022 Fiscal End, Primarily Due To Favorable Change In Price To Sales Multiple (P/S) | |||
| Rithm Capital (RITM) Valuation Ratios Comparison | Financials | ||
| RITM Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | July 17th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to RITM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Rithm Capital
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 21.22 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.5 |
| Rev LTM | 754 |
| Op Inc LTM | 199 |
| FCF LTM | 89 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 53 |
| CFO LTM | 255 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 316 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 12.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 23.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 20.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 44.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 45.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 12.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.5 |
| P/S | 5.8 |
| P/EBIT | 17.7 |
| P/E | 22.5 |
| P/CFO | 10.1 |
| Total Yield | 12.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 5.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.4% |
| D/E | 1.2 |
| Net D/E | 1.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 0.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 8.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 9.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 16.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -5.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -6.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -5.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -52.6% |
Segment Financials
Assets by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Investment Portfolio | 21,824 | 17,480 | |||
| Origination and Servicing | 13,672 | 12,590 | |||
| Mortgage servicing rights (MSRs) | 2,498 | ||||
| Asset Management | 1,695 | 0 | |||
| Corporate Category | 28 | 41 | 280 | 162 | 91 |
| Mortgage Loans Receivable | 2,368 | 1,684 | |||
| Consumer Loans | 570 | 754 | 945 | ||
| Mortgage servicing rights (MSR) Related Investments | 5,024 | 6,408 | 10,625 | ||
| Origination | 10,431 | 3,649 | 1,761 | ||
| Residential Securities, Properties and Loans | 13,226 | 17,839 | 31,176 | ||
| Servicing | 8,526 | 4,439 | 266 | ||
| Total | 39,717 | 32,479 | 39,742 | 33,252 | 44,863 |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10312025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8012025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5022025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2182025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8122024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5032024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2202024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2172023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2172022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |