Tearsheet

Erie Indemnity (ERIE)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $296.05 | Market Cap: $13.7 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Insurance Brokers

Erie Indemnity (ERIE)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $296.05
Market Cap: $13.7 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Insurance Brokers

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Insurtech & AI in Insurance. Themes include AI for Fraud Detection, Digital Claims Processing, and AI for Underwriting & Risk Assessment.
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 14.83
 
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Insurtech & AI in Insurance. Themes include AI for Fraud Detection, Digital Claims Processing, and AI for Underwriting & Risk Assessment.
1 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 14.83

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ERIE Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The user requested an explanation for a -16.1% stock movement for Erie Indemnity (ERIE) for the approximate time period from 8/31/2025 to today (December 4, 2025). As the requested period is in the future, it is not possible to provide factual reasons for a past stock movement within that timeframe. However, examining recent historical data for Erie Indemnity (ERIE) up to December 4, 2024, reveals that the stock has generally demonstrated positive performance, with no indication of a -16.1% decline in recent months. Specifically: * In 2024, ERIE's stock was on a strong upward trajectory, surging nearly 45.8% over the 52 weeks leading up to November 18, 2024. * Year-to-date in 2024, the stock was up 20.9% as of November 18, 2024. * Erie Indemnity reported strong financial results for Q3 and Q4 2024, with net income and diluted earnings per share (EPS) increasing significantly compared to the prior year. * Following the Q4 2024 earnings announcement (February 27, 2025), ERIE's stock surged by 6.87%. * One source mentioned an unexpected dip of 7.5% in ERIE's shares following better-than-expected Q3 adjusted earnings, due to investor concerns about rising costs and expenses. However, this is not a -16.1% movement and is presented within a context of overall positive performance and analyst "Moderate Buy" ratings. The month change for ERIE stock showed a -7.27% fall in an unspecified recent month, but an overall rise of 0.79% in the preceding week. * Overall, the company demonstrated robust performance in 2024, with net income rising and direct written premiums growing. Based on the available factual information, Erie Indemnity's stock did not experience a -16.1% decline in the recent past up to December 4, 2024. Therefore, no key points can be provided to explain such a movement.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ERIE Return52%-20%32%37%25%-27%101%
Peers Return-1%24%-7%3%17%-10%24%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ERIE Win Rate75%25%67%42%42%20% 
Peers Win Rate57%65%33%40%56%38% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ERIE Max Drawdown-18%-30%-16%-18%-2%-32% 
Peers Max Drawdown-27%-9%-21%-8%-1%-14% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NP, WTW, HGIA, MMC, AON.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventERIES&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-38.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven62.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven188 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-20.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven25.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven5 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-38.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven62.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1053 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-53.4%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven114.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven615 days1480 days

Compare to NP, WTW, HGIA, MMC, AON


In The Past

Erie Indemnity's stock fell -38.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/9/2021. A -38.5% loss requires a 62.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Erie Indemnity (ERIE)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ERIE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Erie Indemnity

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ERIENPWTWHGIAMMCAONMedian
NameErie Ind.Neptune .Willis T.HengguangMarsh & .Aon  
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Growth & Margins

ERIENPWTWHGIAMMCAONMedian
NameErie Ind.Neptune .Willis T.HengguangMarsh & .Aon  
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Valuation

ERIENPWTWHGIAMMCAONMedian
NameErie Ind.Neptune .Willis T.HengguangMarsh & .Aon  
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Returns

ERIENPWTWHGIAMMCAONMedian
NameErie Ind.Neptune .Willis T.HengguangMarsh & .Aon  
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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Management fee revenue - policy issuance and renewal services2,4422,0881,9131,8421,810
Administrative services reimbursement revenue737668638609582
Management fee revenue - administrative services6458585957
Investment income (loss)   3340
Service agreement revenue   2628
Total3,2432,8142,6102,5692,517


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,179,198
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120258.2%
Average Daily Volume146,931
Days-to-Cover Short Interest14.83
Basic Shares Quantity46,191,605
Short % of Basic Shares4.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025424202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024725202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024425202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023226202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231026202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023727202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023427202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022301202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221027202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022728202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022428202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021224202210-K 12/31/2021