Erie Indemnity (ERIE)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $296.05 | Market Cap: $13.7 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Insurance Brokers
Erie Indemnity (ERIE)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $296.05Market Cap: $13.7 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Insurance Brokers
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Insurtech & AI in Insurance. Themes include AI for Fraud Detection, Digital Claims Processing, and AI for Underwriting & Risk Assessment. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 14.83 |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Insurtech & AI in Insurance. Themes include AI for Fraud Detection, Digital Claims Processing, and AI for Underwriting & Risk Assessment. |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 14.83 |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ERIE Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The user requested an explanation for a -16.1% stock movement for Erie Indemnity (ERIE) for the approximate time period from 8/31/2025 to today (December 4, 2025). As the requested period is in the future, it is not possible to provide factual reasons for a past stock movement within that timeframe. However, examining recent historical data for Erie Indemnity (ERIE) up to December 4, 2024, reveals that the stock has generally demonstrated positive performance, with no indication of a -16.1% decline in recent months. Specifically: * In 2024, ERIE's stock was on a strong upward trajectory, surging nearly 45.8% over the 52 weeks leading up to November 18, 2024. * Year-to-date in 2024, the stock was up 20.9% as of November 18, 2024. * Erie Indemnity reported strong financial results for Q3 and Q4 2024, with net income and diluted earnings per share (EPS) increasing significantly compared to the prior year. * Following the Q4 2024 earnings announcement (February 27, 2025), ERIE's stock surged by 6.87%. * One source mentioned an unexpected dip of 7.5% in ERIE's shares following better-than-expected Q3 adjusted earnings, due to investor concerns about rising costs and expenses. However, this is not a -16.1% movement and is presented within a context of overall positive performance and analyst "Moderate Buy" ratings. The month change for ERIE stock showed a -7.27% fall in an unspecified recent month, but an overall rise of 0.79% in the preceding week. * Overall, the company demonstrated robust performance in 2024, with net income rising and direct written premiums growing. Based on the available factual information, Erie Indemnity's stock did not experience a -16.1% decline in the recent past up to December 4, 2024. Therefore, no key points can be provided to explain such a movement.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ERIE Return | 52% | -20% | 32% | 37% | 25% | -27% | 101% |
| Peers Return | -1% | 24% | -7% | 3% | 17% | -10% | 24% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ERIE Win Rate | 75% | 25% | 67% | 42% | 42% | 20% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 65% | 33% | 40% | 56% | 38% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ERIE Max Drawdown | -18% | -30% | -16% | -18% | -2% | -32% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -27% | -9% | -21% | -8% | -1% | -14% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NP, WTW, HGIA, MMC, AON.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ERIE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -38.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 188 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -20.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 5 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -38.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1053 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -53.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 114.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 615 days | 1480 days |
Compare to NP, WTW, HGIA, MMC, AON
In The Past
Erie Indemnity's stock fell -38.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/9/2021. A -38.5% loss requires a 62.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ERIE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Erie Indemnity
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Returns
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Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Management fee revenue - policy issuance and renewal services | 2,442 | 2,088 | 1,913 | 1,842 | 1,810 |
| Administrative services reimbursement revenue | 737 | 668 | 638 | 609 | 582 |
| Management fee revenue - administrative services | 64 | 58 | 58 | 59 | 57 |
| Investment income (loss) | 33 | 40 | |||
| Service agreement revenue | 26 | 28 | |||
| Total | 3,243 | 2,814 | 2,610 | 2,569 | 2,517 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4242025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7252024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4252024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2262024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3012023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
| Financials Resources |
| Federal Reserve Economic Data |
| Federal Reserve |
| FDIC Data |
| American Banker |
| The Banker |
| Banking Technology |
| Insurance Brokers Resources |
| Insurance Business America |
| A.M. Best |
| National Underwriter |
| Insurance News |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |