Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 2.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.5%, FCF Yield is 12%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -1.7%, Dist 3Y High is -1.7%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.7%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -84%
  
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 66%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 66%
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 23%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Housing & Real Estate. Themes include Affordable Homeownership, and Real Estate Risk Management.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 2.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.5%, FCF Yield is 12%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -84%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 66%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 66%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 23%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Housing & Real Estate. Themes include Affordable Homeownership, and Real Estate Risk Management.
5 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -1.7%, Dist 3Y High is -1.7%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.7%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MTG Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining the positive stock movement for MGIC Investment (MTG) around the period from late August to early December 2025: 1. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Beat

MGIC Investment reported robust third-quarter 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of $0.83, significantly surpassing analysts' consensus estimates of $0.74. This positive earnings surprise was directly followed by a 2.31% increase in the company's stock price, reflecting strong investor confidence. 2. Robust Capital Position and Share Repurchase Program

The company has demonstrated a solid capital position, actively improving it through capital contributions and reinsurance transactions. As of September 30, 2025, MGIC had remaining authorization to repurchase $614 million of common stock through December 31, 2027. In the third quarter, share repurchases amounted to 7 million shares for $188 million, signaling a strong commitment to returning value to shareholders.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MTG Return-9%17%-7%52%26%22%130%
Peers Return-16%27%15%16%10%9%71%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MTG Win Rate58%58%58%75%75%70% 
Peers Win Rate52%53%52%63%48%48% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MTG Max Drawdown-65%-7%-20%-4%-2%-5% 
Peers Max Drawdown-52%-4%-13%-12%-6%-11% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ESNT, WTM, AGO, BHF, EG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMTGS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-30.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven44.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven398 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-65.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven192.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven385 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-40.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven68.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1019 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-98.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven8050.0%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1480 days

Compare to ESNT, WTM, AGO, BHF, EG


In The Past

MGIC Investment's stock fell -30.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/12/2022. A -30.9% loss requires a 44.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About MGIC Investment (MTG)

Better Bets than MGIC Investment (MTG)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MTG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
9.5%9.5%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.7%-7.7%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for MGIC Investment

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MTGESNTWTMAGOBHFEGMedian
NameMGIC Inv.Essent White Mo.Assured .Brightho.Everest  
Mkt Price28.2861.882,025.5588.8365.59314.0377.21
Mkt Cap6.56.05.14.23.813.05.6
Rev LTM1,2161,2902,4899546,15017,5091,890
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM803837561266514,246682
FCF 3Y Avg74179856532-4904,664653
CFO LTM804854561266514,246683
CFO 3Y Avg74280856532-4904,664654

Growth & Margins

MTGESNTWTMAGOBHFEGMedian
NameMGIC Inv.Essent White Mo.Assured .Brightho.Everest  
Rev Chg LTM2.2%2.1%-8.9%2.5%61.5%8.7%2.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg1.2%8.2%42.6%25.8%15.2%14.2%14.7%
Rev Chg Q-0.7%-1.3%-9.4%-21.0%-40.6%-0.1%-5.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.2%-0.3%-3.5%-5.3%-8.1%-0.0%-1.9%
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM66.1%66.2%22.5%27.9%0.8%24.3%26.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg62.3%67.1%24.7%4.7%-20.7%29.6%27.1%
FCF/Rev LTM66.1%64.8%22.5%27.9%0.8%24.3%26.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg62.2%66.4%24.7%4.7%-20.7%29.6%27.1%

Valuation

MTGESNTWTMAGOBHFEGMedian
NameMGIC Inv.Essent White Mo.Assured .Brightho.Everest  
Mkt Cap6.56.05.14.23.813.05.6
P/S5.34.81.74.20.50.83.0
P/EBIT6.67.211.36.53.419.76.9
P/E8.68.830.310.04.626.39.4
P/CFO8.17.37.615.160.53.47.8
Total Yield13.6%13.3%3.4%10.0%21.5%6.1%11.7%
Dividend Yield2.0%2.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%2.3%1.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg12.7%13.4%13.8%0.3%-14.9%29.6%13.0%
D/E0.10.10.20.41.00.20.2
Net D/E-0.8-0.9-0.2-0.2-27.3-1.1-0.9

Returns

MTGESNTWTMAGOBHFEGMedian
NameMGIC Inv.Essent White Mo.Assured .Brightho.Everest  
1M Rtn2.7%2.1%6.6%9.6%22.4%0.8%4.7%
3M Rtn1.4%-1.2%14.3%9.1%46.8%-9.3%5.2%
6M Rtn9.7%9.0%13.2%6.0%12.9%-7.8%9.3%
12M Rtn11.4%11.1%2.1%-2.2%29.1%-16.5%6.6%
3Y Rtn127.9%66.3%51.6%40.8%19.2%0.2%46.2%
1M Excs Rtn2.7%2.1%6.6%9.6%22.5%0.9%4.7%
3M Excs Rtn-5.4%-7.9%7.2%2.0%42.9%-13.8%-1.7%
6M Excs Rtn-5.0%-5.7%-1.5%-8.7%-1.8%-22.5%-5.4%
12M Excs Rtn-3.6%-3.7%-12.7%-16.8%11.9%-30.6%-8.2%
3Y Excs Rtn53.6%-2.5%-30.2%-26.9%-51.4%-71.3%-28.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Mortgage Insurance1,1551,1731,1861,1991,214
Total1,1551,1731,1861,1991,214


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity5,535,359
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120257.4%
Average Daily Volume1,406,884
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.93
Basic Shares Quantity229,308,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251029202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025730202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025430202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024226202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241104202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024731202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024501202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023221202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231031202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022222202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221102202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022504202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021223202210-K 12/31/2021