MGIC Investment (MTG)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $28.17 | Market Cap: $6.5 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Reinsurance
MGIC Investment (MTG)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $28.17Market Cap: $6.5 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Reinsurance
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 2.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.5%, FCF Yield is 12% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.7%, Dist 3Y High is -1.7% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.7% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -84% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 66%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 66% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Housing & Real Estate. Themes include Affordable Homeownership, and Real Estate Risk Management. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 2.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.5%, FCF Yield is 12% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -84% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 66%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 66% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Housing & Real Estate. Themes include Affordable Homeownership, and Real Estate Risk Management. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.7%, Dist 3Y High is -1.7% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.7% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MTG Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the positive stock movement for MGIC Investment (MTG) around the period from late August to early December 2025:
1. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Beat
MGIC Investment reported robust third-quarter 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of $0.83, significantly surpassing analysts' consensus estimates of $0.74. This positive earnings surprise was directly followed by a 2.31% increase in the company's stock price, reflecting strong investor confidence.
2. Robust Capital Position and Share Repurchase Program
The company has demonstrated a solid capital position, actively improving it through capital contributions and reinsurance transactions. As of September 30, 2025, MGIC had remaining authorization to repurchase $614 million of common stock through December 31, 2027. In the third quarter, share repurchases amounted to 7 million shares for $188 million, signaling a strong commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MTG Return | -9% | 17% | -7% | 52% | 26% | 22% | 130% |
| Peers Return | -16% | 27% | 15% | 16% | 10% | 9% | 71% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MTG Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 58% | 75% | 75% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 53% | 52% | 63% | 48% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MTG Max Drawdown | -65% | -7% | -20% | -4% | -2% | -5% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -52% | -4% | -13% | -12% | -6% | -11% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ESNT, WTM, AGO, BHF, EG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MTG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 398 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -65.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 192.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 385 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -40.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1019 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -98.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 8050.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1480 days |
Compare to ESNT, WTM, AGO, BHF, EG
In The Past
MGIC Investment's stock fell -30.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/12/2022. A -30.9% loss requires a 44.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MTG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for MGIC Investment
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 77.21 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.6 |
| Rev LTM | 1,890 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 682 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 653 |
| CFO LTM | 683 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 654 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 14.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | -5.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 26.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 27.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 26.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 27.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.6 |
| P/S | 3.0 |
| P/EBIT | 6.9 |
| P/E | 9.4 |
| P/CFO | 7.8 |
| Total Yield | 11.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 13.0% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | -0.9 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 5.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 9.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 6.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 46.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -1.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -5.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -8.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -28.5% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10292025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11042024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2212024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2222023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2232022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
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